Cool Giveaway & Draft Talk
Posted: April 22nd, 2011 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 19 Comments »The longest, boringest offseason in history is about to change on next Thursday. That is when the 1st round of the NFL Draft gets underway and we finally have some action. We’re all excited to see what the Eagles do. The draft is a magical time for Eagles fans. Andy Reid and Howie Roseman are so aggressive that you have to hold your breath every time the Commissioner says “We have a trade”. Are we getting a stud pass rusher? A great cover corner? Do we finally take a linebacker in the 1st round? Thursday night is going to be a lot of fun.
As excited as I am to watch the draft, I can go you one better. How would you like to be there at the draft, watching live and in person?
Thanks to our friends and official NFL Draft sponsors, GMC, we have access to two VIP tickets that include premiere seating as well as food and beverages. Are you on Twitter? Make sure you’re following @GMNortheast and @lawlornfl.
So how do you win? I’ll give you two options. For those that are tech savvy, do a Photoshop of Andy or Howie that is draft related. For those who aren’t skilled in that area (like me), just write something out. You can do a humorous mock draft. You could do a write-up of Andy’s press conference after he trades up and takes Cam Newton. You could write out Andy’s strategy for stockpiling picks for the 2017 draft (“I’ve been studying the 10th graders and that looks to be a strong year”). You could talk about Howie Roseman’s policy of adding players that aren’t bigger than him and how that might eventually hurt the team. Just think of something funny/entertaining and run with it. Submit your work by Sunday night at 10pm EST. I’ll choose a winner and announce that on Monday morning. The winner gets both tickets. Send your work to igglesblitz@gmail.com
Thanks to our good friends at GMC for supplying the tickets. Really cool. I’ve never been able to actually attend the draft, but I’m told it is something that all football fans should do at some point.
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Draft Stuff
* Every year I write out a long preview. I’ll post it early next week. I’m still watching tape on some small school guys and I’m cross-checking players that have issues…DE Adrian Clayborn for example.
* I will do a long podcast with the guys from EaglesFanCast on Tuesday night. I’ll post a link as soon as Chuck has it up on his site.
* I just finished a 2-round mock draft for ScoutsNotebook late last night. I’ll get it posted tonight.
* I’ll be doing an Eagles mock for my PE.com column. I’ll post a link to that when it is up.
Q&A
* Will the Eagles trade next year’s 1st rounder for a pick in this draft? Not likely. I can’t stress this enough. The Eagles are into specific players. They don’t target the #1 DE and when he’s gone go down to the #2 DE. The Eagles choose a handful of DEs in the whole draft and target them by round. The same is true for every position. If there is a player the Eagles covet, Andy will pay a pretty good price to go get the guy. The problem is that a 2012 1st round pick would have to be combined with a current 2nd rounder to get you into the 24-32 range. I don’t see a player in that area being worth that price.
* Who are the “special” players in this draft? This isn’t as good as last year. I would say Patrick Peterson is the only special prospect. AJ Green is close. Tryon Smith and Marcel Dareus are close. Last year we had guys like Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Mike Iupati, and CJ Spiller. They were athletic, productive players who had the potential to be dominant or special in the NFL. The first 4 had very good rookie years. Spiller found things rough up in Buffalo.
* Draft for need vs talent? I’ve argued about this with my friend Ryan for a few months. I’m of the belief that you have to draft for need if you are a team that is likely to contend for a Super Bowl. Ascending teams should always think long term. Ryan said he thought teams should draft talent and then fill needs in free agency. My problem is that FA isn’t a sure thing. If we have a resolution in mid-August, what happens? I certainly expect there to be something sooner than that and for us to have FA, but absolutely counting on it seems questionable. Generally speaking, teams should focus on talent over need. This year is an anomaly (not to be confused with Ace Frehley’s album from last year).
* Dowling vs Smith? Jimmy is the better player, Ras-I the better person and teammate. It isn’t close in either category. I will have no problem if the Eagles move back in the 1st or up in the 2nd to take Dowling. Real high character guy. Talented football player. He can hit and tackle. Good ball skills. Big guy who runs well. Poor man’s Troy Vincent, maybe. I still would prefer Smith because he’s got the chance to be special on the field. As we’ve seen with Big Ben and Plax and several Saints, you can win with turds on your roster. Just make sure the guys are really good at what they do.
* Trading back to get extra picks this year? There is some logic to this. Adding an early 2nd and 3rd round pick would give the Eagles the ammo to address several positions with similar type talent. This generally isn’t the Eagle way, but Howie does things differently than Heckert so maybe he wants to do something like this. Jimmy Johnson was great at it for DAL/MIA so the philosophy can work really well.
* Using Kolb to move up in the draft? Eagles won’t do it. They want picks back for him. It doesn’t look like we’ll have the option to deal him before the upcoming draft anyway so the point is largely moot, but you use a player of his caliber to add talent to your team, not just go up 10-15 slots.
* Eagles going DE in the 1st? Could be. I’d love to see Ryan Kerrigan fall close enough where we could get him.
* Draft day discussion? I think it will be here this year. I’ll confirm that next week.
If we assume there wan’t be a resolution to the lockout before Thursday, we’re not going to be able to trade Kolb before the draft. When we do it will be for a 2012 1st round pick and hopefully something a little more. So if the Eagles wanted to move up for a certain player but didn’t want to lose picks in this draft couldn’t they offer their 2012 1st or 2nd to move up. They’d be working on the assumption that they’d refill their coffers later with the compensation for Kolb.
If we trade Kolb after the draft and get nothing in return for 2011, then it better be for more than a 2012 1st round pick. It should be for 1st rounders in 2012 AND 2013. That (at best) is two 2nd rounders in value in return. Anything less, and I say its not worth trading Kevin at all in 2011. When Vick gets hurt (and he will), we’ll have another audition for Kevin. We can then franchise him next offseason, and trade him then.
For the record, I still think its smarter to trade Vick and hold on to Kolb. I don’t know why that isn’t at least being considered by the front office, what with “buy low and sell high” and all…
Tommy-
I’ve been thinking about a potential left field 1st round scenario a la Maclin. I can really see the Eagles (read: Washburn) being extremely high on Nick Fairley. He is that type of penetrating, up the field DT Washburn favored in Tennessee. Although we do have talented DTs and I don’t consider the position at need at all (I’m excited to see what Wash can do with the incumbents), both Laws and Bunk are nearing the end of their deals and neither looks like a lock for an extension.
And we all know, whether due to scheme or talent or some combination, we got very little push up the middle last year, and especially none on 1st and 2nd downs
And I think the value could add up to create an opportunity for us. He seems to be slipping from top 3 pick status to ?? due to these concerns….people re-looking at junior year, showing up light at combine, sleep apnea rumors, etc. If he’s on the board in the early teens, that’s the most likely shocker pick I could envision for the Birds
What do you think?
I do have a trading back draft scenario. Here goes: Buffalo trades up for 23 to take a QB, we get their 2nd (35) and 3rd (67) and we also give them our 1st 5th (149). Our picks could fall something like this:
35 – (who else) Ras-I Dowling
54 – Marcus Cannon, heavy but w/nimble feet
67 – Bruce Carter, on PUP at first, then 10 year starter
85 – Taiwan Jones, return specialist for starters
104- Marcus Gilchrist, S
120 -Tyler Sash, SS
153 -Karl Klug, our DE project
228-Anthony Sherman, top blocking FB
236-Andre Smith, top blocking TE
239-trade down for Mr. Irrelevant
Following up on my left-field hypothetical, if Gabbert, Newton, Quinn, T Smith are off the board at 10, Washington is probably going to look hard at trading down to get some extra picks (they characteristically have very few mid round picks). 23 would still probably put them in striking distance for Ponder/Mallett if they like those guys. Eagles clearly not bashful about division trades, Reid/Roseman have done business with Allen/Leatherface. There’s our dance partner
That is a pretty awesome promotion with the two VIP tickets for the draft. I’ve been wanting to attend one since I was 10 years old. Unfortunately, I’m out-of-state on business, so I can’t wow you all with my Adobe Photoshop ineptitude. Not to mention, even if I DID win, it wouldn’t be very feasible for me to make it to NYC on time. The only way I’m getting on a plane to go anywhere is if my sister goes into labor(which could happen at any time during the next 3-5 days, haha).
Arby: I’d be very happy with scenario. My only qualms are that Cannon seems like he’d be a better fit as a road-grader in a run-first offense… and I also don’t see Taiwan Jones being there at #85(although I’d be thrilled if he was, and we grabbed him). I honestly don’t see Jones getting out of the 2nd, and he could go as high as #51 to Tampa or #59 to Atlanta.
For whatever reason, I always wanted to have a Mr. Irrelevant to pick. Unfortunately, since that pick is always compensatorily based, its just up to blind luck if we ever get the last pick in the draft.
Hard to imagine Nick Fairley dropping past Tennessee, but if he does have a Warren Sapp type fall, then I’d be on board with moving up slightly for him, a la Maclin. He and Washburn could be a really great fit, and I still think Fairley is a better player than Dareus, though they’re close. Question is how far can he possibly fall? He’s a better DT prospect than Bunk was, and Bunk went at #14 (and should have gone at #8, I might add).
Tennessee has some decent DTs IMO in Jones and Brown. Don’t know about some of their other needs off the top of my head…maybe CB and edge rusher. Or maybe they are in the Newton market
Amakamura could possibly be in play at 10 as well depending on how the board breaks. Dallas would probably love him but maybe they get Tyron Smith instead and take him. I really see #10 as that big action pick because I think there’s a strong Washington can’t fill their gigantic needs (OT, QB, OLB) smartly there. I guess they could get Julio Jones at 10…kinda hope they do decide to do that, I wouldn’t be too scared of him
Honestly, I’m not going to give Shannahan and Allen any credit… I think they’re liable to make a bone-head/shocker move at #10 rather than do the SENSIBLE thing and trade back. In my most recent “just messin’ around” mock draft, I had them taking Jake Locker at #10. Just seems like the type of QB Shannahan would like, and the type of move that Washington is prone to making.
That move would also trigger a panicked run on QBs that would probably turn the 1st round into one giant clusterfuck, so I’m kind of rooting for that too.
The worst part about a lack of a CBA is that the Skins can’t trade all their 2nd round picks for the next 10 years for a washed up veteran.
Tommy you suggested that teams need to draft for need in this draft but consider that rookies won’t be able to contact their coaches or even get a playbook until the situation is resolved, by which point free agency will open. For that reason, rookies are less likely to be able to contribute in their first years. For that reason, it makes sense to draft as if this is any other year IMO.
Kind of off topic, but if the NFL cuts Weeks 2 and 4, and moves Week 3 to the bye week, the Eagles would miss the Falcons and 49ers, and they’d play the Giants Week 7 (between the Skins and Cowboys).
I think that targeting DL in this draft will be a mistake for two reasons:
1.) There are only a few potentially elite prospects in this draft at the DE/DT/34OLB position: Von Miller, Nick Fairley, Marvin Austin, and maybe Justin Houston. Nobody else has super high potential. Bowers, Quinn, Liuget, and Kerrigan are all limited athletes who will have to buck historical trends to be successful in the NFL (look at the SackSEER and Waldo’s combine data analysis for more info).
2.) You have to remember that the Eagles are still paying alot of DL good $$$. Are we advocating just sitting Bunkley, Patterson, Dixon or Laws this year? Hell no. I want to see Washburn try to get the most out of each and everyone of these guys already on the roster. Many of these guys were blue-chip prospects when they were drafted, and I refuse to believe that they’re all nothing but average players in the NFL. I think Segrest’s incompetence and the conservative 2-gap scheme may have had more to do with their “average” ability than anything else. We could be seeing a monster 10+ sack campaign from the likes of Brodrick Bunkley in 2011. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see that happen.
3.) There are some good OL and CBs who will be falling to the bottom of the 1st round because of the run on DL that will occur due to the perception that this draft is “deep in defensive linemen”. Let the other teams reach for marginal DL in the first round, and snap up the guys like Gabe Carimi, Anthony Castonzo, Jimmy Smith, or Brandon Harris who happen to fall.
I certainly hope you’re not looking at SackSEER as a reliable predictor of DE success. Its (very short) track record thus far has been a disaster, and the articles that FO posted leave out a lot of information (its historical reference, for example, listed only the top 10 and bottom 10 scores over a multi-year span – what about the hundreds of players who scored in between?)
The Waldo numbers (just read them for the first time – did he do DE’s or just OLB’s?) are more convincing but still very volatile.
I disagree with the format of SackSEER, in that it predicts the number of sacks specifically, but I do think that there is validity to the use of combine stats to predict NFL success or failure for pass rushers.
If you look at the history of elite pass rushers in the NFL, there have been very, very few who did not either excel in the Vertical Jump and Broad Jump, and/or excel in the Short Shuttle and 3-Cone drills.
Here’s a post I made about this on draftcountdown.com:
http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46722
It’s really pretty amazing when you study it – Demarcus Ware, Trent Cole, Clay Matthews, Lamarr Woodley, etc all excelled in the combine drills. When you compare this year’s crop of pass rushers to the elite pass rushers of the NFL, the only players to compare favorably are JJ Watt, Adrian Clayborn, Von Miller, Nick Fairley Marvin Austin, Justin Houston, and Dontay Moch. The combine numbers put guys like Ryan Kerrigan, DaQuan Bowers, and Robert Quinn squarely in the “extremely high risk, unlikely to succeed in the NFL” category. I think based on the fact that almost NONE of the elite pass rushers in the NFL today, if you read my post, have below-average combine workouts, I’d rather avoid those guys in the first round in favor of more athletic players such as Moch, Houston, Watt, or Clayborn. Obviously Von Miller is probably the best pure pass rushing prospect in this entire draft and will undoubtedly be a special player in the NFL, but I’d be shocked to see him slip out of the top 5.
I read the thread and I do agree with you on one point – if SackSEER is useful for one thing, it’s to help avoid busts. (with Jason Pierre-Paul as the looming case study.) But I wasn’t convinced at all with the ceiling it places on players that post solid-but-not-spectacular combine numbers.
@ mcud
RE: Trading Vick vs. Trading Kolb
After developing Kolb in to a hot commodity and resurrecting Vick’s career, I think Reid probably feels like he can develop any QB to lead the offense. Given that assumption, you keep Vick who has the potential to be Superman on any given Sunday (or Monday, or Thursday, or shit, Tuesdays…) and trade Kolb thinking you’ll always be able to find another QB to work your magic on for the future.
Also, Reid might be looking at the way his young team (particularly the offense) has responded to Vick’s leadership. Does DeSean, Maclin, or McCoy rally behind Kolb the same way they’ve done so for Vick? At some points last season, DeSean sounded like he had a giant man-crush on Vick. We heard him support Kolb in the dwindling days of the McNabb Era, but he wasn’t gushing over him like he does for Vick. For whatever reason, Vick’s leadership style really clicked with the young core of our team. That’s not a knock on Kolb. We just don’t know in his case.
I’m sure Reid wishes he could keep both guys, but I bet her understands what’s going on in Kolb’s head as he sits the bench. Fortunately for us, Vick and Kolb are high-character guys.
Random question Tommy, does Matt Alkire still work with you on Scoutsnotebook?
RE: Matt at SNB?
Not really. His wife had a daughter last summer and Matt felt that he needed to focus on being a dad/husband.