It’s Friday, Let’s Talk Draft
Posted: April 15th, 2011 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 15 Comments »What the heck else is there to discuss, right?
Locker / smokescreen – I do think the Eagles are putting up a smokescreen with Jake. He could be on the board at 23 and some team late in the 1st or early in the 2nd could be desperate to get him. Jake doesn’t lack raw talent. Teams will go after QBs like that. We could move back into the early part of the 2nd and pick up a 1st round pick in next year’s draft. That would give us good ammo for 2012. We could also deal that pick for a player once the offseason begins. There will be some FA and trading at some point. Somebody yesterday pointed out that we could do the trade-back for a 2012 1st, trade Kolb for a 2012 1st, and have our own. 3 1st round picks. Too good to imagine. The world would end or the draft would be declared illegal by the Feds. No way the football gods allow me the joy of 3 1st round picks.
Needs / Targets – Yesterday I made mention that I’m hoping to get a CB in the 1st and OL in the 2nd. Those are loose targets. The draft is a fluid situation. You can never make plans in terms of absolutes. Jeremy Maclin wasn’t really on the Eagles radar in 2009. He slid and they grabbed him. Back in 2008 the Eagles really wanted OT Branden Albert. KC took him and the Eagles ended up trading back into the 2nd round. You go into the draft with a specific idea of what you want, but those plans change when your choices are greatly affected by the strange moves made by teams such as Oakland, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Indianapolis. Your 4th round target can go off the board in the 2nd and you can have a 2nd round target slide down to the 4th. You just never know. Nothing is set in stone.
Go DL early, that’s the strength of the board – There is definite logic to this point. Back in January and February I was talking a lot about Ryan Kerrigan as an Eagles target. I think he is an ideal fit for the new system. I think he is a strong prospect with the ability to play in about any system. He is the kind of player I hate to pass on. Good size. Good athlete. Productive. Playmaker. High character. The problem now is that Ryan won’t make it to 23. Much as I love him, can’t afford to move up for him. There should be good DL still available when we pick. I won’t be bothered at all by adding someone that can improve our line play. I’m still looking CB first, but if they’re gone…DL is okay by me.
What about WR Greg Little? – I just watched a UNC tape from 2009 this week. Little is incredibly talented. He would be an awesome addition. Unfortunately, I don’t know how it really makes sense with the Big 3 aleady in place and Riley Cooper entering his 2nd year. Little can be a monster in the NFL if he gets his head on straight. I’ll be writing about him over at ScoutsNotebook over the weekend. Really impressive talent. I do think we’ll look at a WR later in the draft. There are some interesting guys, but no one that I’m smitten with.
Andy Reid’s future – I covered that in a column for SB Nation Philly. Here’s the link.
Any chance Juan Castillo will give Ernie Sims a shot? – Ernie is the kind of speedy LB that Juan is looking for. On the surface, you’d say he’s a guy we should take a look at in the new system. I’m pretty down on Ernie. We knew he had some issues, but I really hoped that playing on a solid defense and on a winning team would bring out the best in him. Didn’t happen. Ernie didn’t rise to the occasion. It was more of the same. He showed virtually no instincts. You can’t just run fast at targets. You have to read and understand plays, even in the new system. I’d be willing to keep Ernie as a backup and STer, but I get the feeling he’ll be very unhappy as anything less than a starter.
Mario Harvey, any interest? – I watched some tape of his and wasn’t all that impressed. There is a Youtube clip of him vs Ohio State that you can check out if interested. It isn’t just highlights so you can see his ups and downs. Could be a terrific STer. I actually think he might be a really good FB. I’m just not all that into him as a LB. He timed really well at his Pro Day, but I don’t see that speed on tape.
I can see it now…. the Eagles having picks 1, 2, and 32 in the 1st round of the 2012 draft. I’m swoooning!
I think mcud will want to subscribe to your newsletter.
Wow, Tommy… it seems as if you’re alot more “connected” or in-tune with what the Eagles are thinking and doing then you were at your old blog.
Anyway, I’m of the firm belief that the Eagles need to go either CB or OL in the first round, without exception. It has to be one of the following at #23: Jimmy Smith, Brandon Harris, Aaron Williams, Derrok Sherrod, Gabe Carimi, or Anthony Castonzo. Assuming, of course, that Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara don’t fall down the draft board, and neither does Tyron Smith.
Sure, the draft is deep in DL, but if you take a closer look at all of the DL prospect, I’m not sold on very many. The only DL player I would be comfortable picking in round one is J.J. Watt.The others are either high talent, but low character guys (Nick Fairley and Marvin Austi) or questionable athletes with spotty pass-rushing production (Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers, Corey Liuget, Marcell Dareus). And because of the consensus that the draft is “deep with DL talent” many of these players will be overdrafted by teams making a run at DL in the first round.
Conversely, a DL run in the first round will push CB and OL talent down the draft board to where the Eagles will be picking. I say, exploit the trend to go DL and instead target the best CB/OL.
I found this… interesting mock draft on twitter. Clicked the link because it said it had Jimmy Smith to redskins
http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/news/story?id=6338725
Does Ingram fit in our sheme?
And I have an yes/no easy draft question(though I don’t you can answer it like that) Are QBs overrated in the draft? I know it’s an important position, but it’s also the one position where guys consistently goes higher than they “should”
That mock draft was done by Bryan Broaddus, who is a former NFL exec. He actually ran the Eagles outstanding draft of 1998. Sometimes you’ll hear Mike Lombardi try to take credit for that. BS. Bryan ran things that April. Did a great job for us (Tra, Trotter, Whiting, & others).
Ingram fits our scheme because he can play in any offense. The problem is that he would be a wasted resource because we don’t use 2 RBs enough. We feed the ball to one guy (Shady McCoy) and then mix in a backup. Using that high a pick on a RB would be a major waste. I love Ingram, but there’s no reason to get him with Marty/Andy running the offense.
RE: QBs overrated?
QBs are absolutely “overrated” in the draft. The actual term should be over-drafted. Teams realize that QBs are being picked too early, but do it anyway.
QB is the most important position in football. Teams fall in love with certain prospects. Rather than risk losing that player, the teams will take the QB early. If you miss on a DT or G or TE, you just go get the next one on your board. QB isn’t like that. Teams don’t go into the draft with a bunch of QBs they like. They will focus on a few names. Among them, teams will have 1 or 2 guys they really covet. Sometimes this is based on talent. Other times it is circumstantial. I’m sure the Cardinals have Blaine Gabbert rated higher than Andy Dalton, but they would prefer to get Dalton in the 2nd than Gabbert in the 1st. That kind of thing.
Finding the right QB can change the fortunes of a franchise. Who is Mike Holmgren without Brett Favre? He might have been fired in 3 years instead of being labeled a guru. Who is Andy Reid without Donovan McNabb? Belichick without Tom Brady? Think about how Matt Ryan impacted Atlanta. Look at what Drew Brees did for the Saints. Tony Romo was a godsend for Dallas when Drew Bledsoe started to fall apart in 2006.
Knowing the impact a QB can have leads teams to take chances, even though the majority of QBs don’t pan out and lead to coaches/GMs getting fired.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope there is a run on QBs in 2 weeks.
Tommy, with the inability to sign UDFA’s, who are some guys we may see drafted in the 7th this year?, or what positions would you expect the Eagles to focus on with those 7th round picks?
Thanks, and have a great day! The Reddgie
The notion of 3 first round picks makes me drool. I’ll always harken back to the 2000 draft, where the Jets had 4 first round picks. So jealous.
You mention potential late-round interest in a WR here. Do you think the Eagles could have any interest in ECU’s Dwayne Harris? I love him as a potential slot receiver in our offense, but you’d know better than me.
Something interesting I just remembered, we get to see what that second Donovan Mcnabb pick is going to turn into.
Surely a “read and react” system isn’t a good fit for Sims who is “better” attacking upfield?
I am a little confused about the whole “not being able to sign UDFA” thing changing the 7th round. I understand that teams will not be able to sign the UDFAs they may have interest in, but why would they draft a player they wouldn’t otherwise draft in a normal year over a player they would draft? It just seems to me that teams would value a 7th rounder over an UDFA, sort of by definition.
iskar36,
Think about it. You interview or study about 500 prospects, especially those in your local area, as their visits don’t count against the NFL allowable limit. Certain players are guys you like, but you’ve only got a 5th, 6th, or 7th round grade on them. Knowing every team’s draft board is going to be different, there are going to be players that you don’t have a draftable grade on that actually get drafted by another team, and on the flip side, players that you may have a draftable grade on may go undrafted.
With that in mind, as the draft goes on, you may contact those players to gauge their interest in joining your club as an UDFA. Most UDFA come to an informal agreement to join a roster before the draft is even over. So, if you think a kid isn’ t going to be drafted, and have a handshake agreement for him to join your club after the draft, then you would instead focus on spending your actual draft pick on a player that you can’t reach a handshake agreement with, or a kid you DON’T think you’ll be able to sign after the draft.
Hank Baskett is a good example. I’m told the Eagles had a 4th round grade on Hank, but it became apparent to them that he wouldn’t be drafted, so they hoped to sign him as an UDFA, and kept their picks for other players. Then, Minnesota swooped in and made Baskett a better offer, and he signed with them instead. The Eagles got greedy, and they had to rectify that mistake by actually trading for Baskett that fall.
Clear as mud? Sam and Tommy can probably explain it better…
@JVB
I loved the quotes around better. Did you fingers cramp up as you typed Sims’ name between the words good and better?
Your comment seems ripe for the out-of-context-quote game:
JVB, describing our system, said “a good fit for Sims” and asked “who is ‘better’ attacking upfield?”
@ ATG
Hahaha. I honestly tried to avoid ripping into him for once but I just couldn’t resist that subtle slight.
If the Eagles resign him, I honestly won’t stop laughing until he misses his first assignment of the season. Last offseason I was annoyed, this year it will of got so bad it’ll be funny.
After converting Feely, McNabb, and now, potentially Kolb into high draft picks, Andy Reid thinks he’s in the middle of a QB market bubble, and he’s looking for the next foreclosure to flip. I would not be surprised at all to see the Eagles trade back out of the first round for a 1 in 20112 and a 2 this year, then use that 2 to pick up a QB to groom for a couple years, plug him in for a couple games against weak defenses to run up his value, then convert him into an extra first round pick in 2014.