Eagles Draft Talk From Mobile
Posted: January 25th, 2012 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 55 Comments »I’m at the airport in Mobile waiting to fly out. While I’ve got a few minutes, I thought I’d share some info from today and the Senior Bowl in general.
First, let’s talk about the Eagles stuff. Personnel consultant Phil Savage went right to DE Melvin Ingram after today’s South practice. Savage also chatted up Courtney Upshaw and then spent a while with Quinton Coples. In 3 days he spoke with:
DE Cam Johnson – Virginia
DE Jake Bequette – Arkansas
DE Vinny Curry – Marshall
DE Quinton Coples – UNC
LB Courtney Upshaw – Alabama (would play DE in our system)
DE Melvin Ingram – South Carolina
Anyone noticing a trend? Either Phil loves DEs or he was told to go talk to those guys. It will be very interesting to see just how high we target a DE. I figured with Cole, Babin, Tapp, Graham, and Hunt we were all set there, but maybe they see Tapp as expendable if the right young guy is available.
Ingram fascinates me the most. He could play DT or DE in our system. You could actually begin him as the backup Under Tackle (if we let Trevor Laws walk) and then shift Ingram to DE if Graham fails to come back. Ingram played DT and DE for South Carolina. Coming into the Senior Bowl I thought he was worth a 2nd round pick. Now he might have played his way into the 1st round. Is he worth pick 15? Not so sure about that. Maybe. Great week of practice.
Cam Johnson got the best of OT Mike Adams today and really helped himself. I wrote back at midseason that he reminded me of Trent Cole. Goes 6’4, 267 and he will play the run as well as get after the QB. Could play in our system. Has the speed and motor. Washburn might tell him to shed a couple of pounds.
* * * * *
So what about LBs? Zach Brown had another good day. He can really cover. I’m not sure that he’s worth pick 15, but he might be. If you want a really athletic LB to cover Jimmy Graham, Jermichael Finley, and those types, then Brown might have more value than LBs in the past. He’s still not a great tackler, but he did work on that and got better.
Audie Cole would be interesting. He’s 6’4, 248. I think we’d have to put him at MLB. He’s effective at jamming receivers on underneath routes and hugging up against them, but he’s not a guy you necessarily want in space vs a RB. Cole is a good pass rusher. He has some pop when he hits. Might be the kind of guy who would fit nicely in the Wide-9 because of his size and toughness. Eagles might think he’s not athletic enough to play for us. Mid-round type of guy.
Keenan Robinson had a good day. He seems to be the happy medium of Cole and Brown. Robinson would play SAM. Goes 6’3, 240. Pretty good athlete. Has solid cover skills. Really battled TEs at the point of attack on run plays today. Did get sealed on one and gave up a long gain. Has the potential to be a good run defender. He’s big and strong enough. Can be a physical player. Simply needs to be more consistent. I’m still thinking 3rd round for K-Rob.
I’m starting to really get the feeling we’ll go MLB in free agency and then address SAM in the draft with a semi-early pick. Rolle would then stick as the WLB. No inside info. Just a hunch. If we do that, team must decide if Casey should be the backup MLB or backup WLB. Might need to add a young guy to develop behind the free agent. That’s where a guy like Cole could be of interest if he falls far enough.
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What about CBs? Not sure. Gotta study the Senior Bowl tapes to see how the guys look. Focused more on the front seven while live in Mobile. LB stuff tends to get overlooked by the NFL Network.
There is no CB that I’m enamored with. Brandon Boykin interests me a lot, but is just 183 pounds. Janoris Jenkins can really play, but has some character issues. Is he someone you roll the dice on? What value does he have? Jamell Fleming and Donnie Fletcher both fascinate me.
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Someone asked in the last post about my thoughts on a player being different from other people in Mobile. I write what I see with my own eyes. I could easily miss a few reps when a guy stood out. I kept active eyes and tried to watch as much as possible. I sat in the stands, up quite a few rows and near midfield. I wanted to be able to look down and see the action at all spots as best I could.
I didn’t write up any guys based on hearsay. If I’m putting my name on it, I’m making sure it is what I saw. You’ll notice that I don’t comment on every player. I didn’t see every player enough to have a strong feel. Some guys always were finishing a rep when I happened to look up. I won’t comment on them because I can’t tell you what I saw.
I can’t speak for other sites.
* * * * *
A few of you have asked questions about how things went down there. I’ll cover that in the next couple of days when things are quiet. I’ll also share some funny stories. I had a blast hanging out with Jimmy Kempski from Blogging The bEast and BGN. Don’t tell him I said nice things. He’ll get all cocky and be unbearable. Do ask him about Derick Rivero. (I’ll explain later).
Time to fly home. I’ll post notes on today’s practices late or maybe tomorrow AM. Great trip.
RE: Eagles’ interest in DEs
Rather than Tapp . . .
It may be about Graham and the Eagles’ fear that he will not come close to what he was projected to be two years ago — i.e., that his recovery is on the same trajectory as the unfortunate Cornelius Ingram.
On the other hand, there’s always AR’s predilection (compulsion?) for spending high picks on DEs.
It’d be nice, if the Eagles go that direction, to get someone who weighs 280 lbs and is still quick — like Ingram (who, while not listed at 280+, will grow into it . . . like JPP has).
I really like the idea of adding Ingram… I’m not a Trevor Laws fan… and I think it would be great to have another DT/DE hybrid on our line.
Landri should be resigned as #3, Thorton and Dixon for #4.
Only way Laws returns is lack of interest has him signing for something like the vet minimum. Which is a real possibility.
I really like Dixon, both from a character standpoint as well as his play on the field, but are we 100% sure that both he and Graham are going to be healthy this season? Do we take that risk?
Do you think Keenan Clayton could still be in the mix for the starting WLB or atleast a above average backup/nickle LB? For some reason I still really like his chances to develop into a good starting WLB…
Ya I agree that Clayton could yet be a decent player. I think the only way he becomes expendable is if we take Zach Brown.
That would be a pretty formidable pair of nickel linebackers though.
I’ve always been kinda intrigued by Clayton. I was surprised at how much out of favor it appear he became this year. He finally started to get some serious minutes down the stretch. I guess that can be attributed to Castillo getting to know the personnel.
I don’t think he plays the run nearly well enough to be considered a starter. As I said in another post, I think guys like Clayton will have a niche with defenses in defending these athletic TEs and bigger WRs. Two guys in this year’s draft who fit a similar mold are Kenny Tate from UMD and George Iloka from Boise. They’ll probably go higher than the 4th like Clayton because of their athleticism, but it will be interesting to see how that type of player develops.
I think Tate got a medical hardship waiver and is going back to school
FWIW, Ingram is the 17th rated prospect (grade – 92) by ESPN’s ScoutsInc.
T-Law
What is your scouting report on Andre Branch and could he be a fit for the Eagles?
One thing to remember when thinking about who the Eagles talk to is that you need to check out everyone you think you might draft, what if they don’t like what’s on the board at #15 and someone offers a trade down to #21? Better be ready to take anyone who fall there or could be on the board in the 40s..
Ingram and Upshaw look an awful lot like Graham clones, short with short arms, 270 lbs, in fact, shorter arms than Graham. Yet people are talking about them as top 20 picks, but dissing the pick of Graham two years before. Go figure. It’s not like they’ve had better college careers.
Weird thing this year about OL prospects, unless there are some typos, a lot of T-Rex types among the seniors. I can see some guys really falling in the draft. OTs with 33″ arms, OGs with 31″ arms.
Reading between the lines of Howie’s interview, I think he learned two things:
1) don’t reach for need
2) better to trade back and gamble on upside than go with the “sure thing,” since nothing in the NFL is sure.
I don’t think they get more than a 4th for Asante, still, clear his salary and pick up a 4th rd pick, add a FA MLB, and suddenly you’re in the driver seat, with #15, two mid-2nd rd picks, a 3rd, and 3 4th rd picks including TB’s which will be around 100. With a MLB on board, you can focus on a SLB (Acho came in at 6’1 235 which may take him out of Eagle consideration, Robinson now a more credible option) and an athlete at LB, and DE, WR, OT as real possibilities.
It’s early, but it seems the strength of this draft will be DTs, especially since the Eagles can pass over all the NT types.
Both Upshaw’s and Ingram’s arms were 30.5, the same as Grahams’. I thought most people had Graham pegged to go in the 20s. I seem to recall the Ravens and Pats as possible landing spots, picking at 22 and 26.
“2) better to trade back and gamble on upside than go with the “sure thing,” since nothing in the NFL is sure.”
Well of course this has been the FO’s modus operandi for the last few years. But I was surprised at his comment that even in the first round that the hit/miss percentage is @ 50%. Is that a fact, does anybody know? That seemed like a stretch to me.
Seems like less than a stretch to me… I do believe there is a difference between a “pure bust” an extreme pick who is just “solid” and an “injury situation” but if you count all 3 of those categories as not truly being 1st round worthy picks then I think you have a ton of 1st rounders who aren’t worth it, and would have been better used to collect multiple players.
The idea that a top 10 pick is a sure thing is fools gold. I remember wanting to get Crabtree really bad the year he came out, and look at what that fool has done so far… nothing.
“2) better to trade back and gamble on upside than go with the “sure thing,” since nothing in the NFL is sure.”
Well of course this has been the FO’s modus operandi for the last few years. But I was surprised at his comment that even in the first round that the hit/miss percentage is @ 50%. Is that a fact, does anybody know? That seemed like a stretch to me.
Depends what you consider a “hit.”
I know I counted up a recent first round one time, and it was about 10-12 stars, 10-12 starters, and 10-12 flops/players who have yet to do much of anything. So that could be a 67% hit rate, but a few years down the line when those starters are more like nobodies, 50% seems reasonable.
Pick a year and analyze it yourself. It’s all here:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft
Kind of fits in with the comment AustinFan made about Graham. We get enamored with young prospects but two years down the line if they haven’t become stars then they are considered bad picks. Tough business.
Indeed. The Steelers take Worilds in the 2nd rnd and he’s the second coming of James Harrison. The 49ers take NaVorro Bowman in the 3rd round, and we saw who made an “impact” their 2nd year. So until the Eagles win the SB and a recent draft pick is the MVP, the Eagles will be inept at “developing talent” all sarcasm intended.
Let’s pick 2009:
Clear difference-makers: Stafford, Raji, Orakpo, Cushing, Maclin, Harvin, Matthews, Nicks.
These guys are probably all “hits” too: Jason Smith, Michael Crabtree, Josh Freeman, Vontae Davis, Kenny Britt, Beanie Wells. Robert Ayers?
After that, you know, I don’t how you judge whether or not certain guys are hits. I don’t know much about, say, Peria Jerry except that he helped ruin the Eagles’ season this year. Do you dock the Steelers points because the No. 32 pick, Ziggy Hood, isn’t a star?
Mark Sanchez starts, but at No. 5 overall, is he a hit? Maybin and Aaron Curry are still in the league but are with their second team, they’re busts, right?
Brandon Pettigrew, Knowshon Moreno, Michael Oher … hits?
Larry English? Heyward-Bey? … misses?
I guess it also depends when in time you’re looking at said year.
Stafford – good but has health issues
Crabtree – not as good as advertised in my opinion disappeared in playoffs
Kenny Britt – off the field issues
Freeman – kind of a toss up still
Cushing – talented but may have HCG issues
Smith – drafted to be a LT switched to RT after being replace by a 2010 draft pick
Oher i would put as a semi hit with Smith
He’s probably going to be released, so I wouldn’t rate Smith as a hit.
Really like the thought of this scenario:
“I don’t think they get more than a 4th for Asante, still, clear his salary and pick up a 4th rd pick, add a FA MLB, and suddenly you’re in the driver seat, with #15, two mid-2nd rd picks, a 3rd, and 3 4th rd picks including TB’s which will be around 100. With a MLB on board, you can focus on a SLB (Acho came in at 6’1 235 which may take him out of Eagle consideration, Robinson now a more credible option) and an athlete at LB, and DE, WR, OT as real possibilities.”
Signing that MLB really turns the draft on its head for us. We have quite a bit of ammo and 1-2 must-haves. If you nail one or both of those in free agency, it’s going to be a fun draft weekend.
Totally agree… and I think it will be fun even if we don’t
AFan –
Play GM for a minute and make the Asante trade for a 4th. What would you do with all that ammo? Trade up for someone higher than #15, sit, or try to own the 2nd round?
You don’t know until draft day, but you have a lot of options if you sign the MLB before the draft. SLBs are easy to pick up, we’re talking two down players unless they’re exceptional.
So now you can go BPA all day without focusing on need (unless you let DeSean walk, in which $8M just went off Banner’s 2012-2013 spreadsheet and you can sign a veteran and/or draft a couple WRs at some point.
Example, you can move up with one 2nd rd pick, a mid-4th rd pick will allow you to move up 7-8 slots from 45/47, then trade down with the other pick, same in the third round, combine two 4ths to move up to 85-90, and so on.
Point is you can target players between the 2nd and 4th rounds with maximum flexibility.
Winner! Best Draft post yet on working the board. You need and agent to peddle your talents?
I would also have no problem flipping our #15 pick for a 1st rounder in 2013 and a 2nd this year (not sure if that is fair comp maybe worth more or less depending on the team).
This is a great strategy as long as we fill all of our other defensive draft needs (SLB, DL and DB depth) in free agency. In the last ten years (!!!) the only 2nd-4th round defensive draft pick who’s turned into even an average player for us was Stewart Bradley. Sigh. Fingers crossed on Allen and Jarrett.
In fact, and this is really depressing, going back ten years, in the top 4 rounds of the draft we have picked 19 defensive players. Exactly two have turned into average/average+ starters: Mike Patterson and Stewart Bradley.
I’m going to go throw myself out of a window now.
That is a gross exaggeration. What really stands out is how little draft resources were used on defense from 2003-2009 – 7 drafts.
3 1st rd picks, only 1 other pick in the top 50, 5 picks from 51-100. 2 more picks from 101-120
12 top 120 picks (4 rounds) total.
2009:
2008:
#47 Laws,
#80 Smith
#117 Demps
2007:
#57 VA, bad luck
#87 Bradley
2006:
#14 Bunkley, run stopping DT
#71 Gocong – solid run stopping LB
2005:
#31 Patterson, solid value, reliable DT
#63 McCoy
#102 Considine, backup, top ST guy
2004:
#89 Ware,
2003:
#16 McDougle
2002:
#26 Sheppard
#58 Brown
#59 Lewis
2001:
#55 Caver
#63 Burgess
2000:
#6 Simon
Look for them to draft heavy on defense once again, I see one major defensive signing at LB, hopefully someone in their prime.
The key will be to prepare to transition from Babin, Jenkins, Cole and Patterson on the DL. Otherwise, with Asante and Hanson probably gone, Aso is the only ancient player in the back seven.
Anyone know anything about Ark St. OLB Demario Davis? He was a late addition and I’ve read a couple of really nice reviews of his so far. I couldn’t find his official weight-in, but he’s listed at 6’2″ 232, and supposed to be pretty fast for a LB.
Comes in as a late-mid round prospect.
I love the sound of this:
“I’m starting to really get the feeling we’ll go MLB in free agency and then address SAM in the draft with a semi-early pick. Rolle would then stick as the WLB.”
Besides the theory that a pro is more likely to work out than a rookie, it also frees up our draft to go in any number of directions because outside of LB, there’s no major need areas (although there are several areas that could use the depth or an infusion of young talent).
Enjoyed the tidbits with you and Jimmy, too, for some odd reason.
I am a fan of going after a MLB in free agency as well (assuming they go after a legitimate starter, and not some 2nd tier player they try to sell to the fan base). I think with such a desperate need for a LB, going into the draft without one would be a huge risk. What happens if the guys we target get picked earlier than the Eagles expected? It’s not an unrealistic scenario and it would leave us without our target for starting MLB. When you’re looking for an impact player to stabilize the defense, I don’t think a secondary option is all that satisfying. I would much rather they go aggressively after a free agent, then in the draft, target the best player available that will fit secondary needs.
Do not like another short armed DE with a high motor. Smells like bust to me..
The Graham hate is so frustrating, we were all drooling over him after the senior bowl and mocked the giants for taking such a project in JPP. At the time it seemed like a fantastic pick and when healthy he looked pretty good, he just hasn’t /been/ healthy.
He’s not yet a bust and I don’t think you can truly rate him until after his fourth year, he’s been too unlucky with injuries
I didn’t like the pick from the very beginning. That doesn’t mean I’d have a problem if BG proves me wrong though.
I didn’t like the pick from the very beginning. That doesn’t mean I’d have a problem if BG proves me wrong though.
It’s my unprofessional opinion that “injuries” and “busts” are different categories. The end result for the team is the same, but apart from using some kind of demonically powered fortune telling I’m not sure how you can predict an injury.
I don’t want to rehash the Graham vs. JPP debate b/c there are some passionate supporters for both players, but you have to remember that the Senior Bowl is not completely a college all-star game. Underclassmen don’t get invited. Some of the top MLB prospects (e.g., Kuechly, Hightower, Burfict) are not even at the Senior Bowl this year for folks to drool over. And I hope the Eagles FO don’t overly rely on Senior Bowl invitees to replenish their roster.
Tommy,
How would you rate our options at MLB assuming we will have our choice of all available FA’s or rookies? I’d probably rank them in this order:
1. Curtis Lofton
2. Luke Kuechly
3. David Hawthorne
4. D’Qwell Jackson (dropped because of injury history and scheme uncertainty)
5. Stephen Tulloch
6. Donta Hightower
7. London Fletcher (dropped because of age)
8. Audie Cole
9. James-Michael Johnson
10. Vontaze Burfict
Also if we do sign one of the top 3 FA MLBs then I’d have to assume we won’t be franchising/resigning DJax. Wouldn’t that make Michael Floyd the logical pick at #15 instead of stocking up on DL? Our DL is in excellent condition, assuming that we will resign Landri. I just don’t see another lineman being able to make much impact with our current rotation. And a first rounder or even a high second should be someone we expect to contribute right away. Even though that hasn’t always been the case it shouldn’t change the team’s expectations.
I think the current teams of Lofton, Hawthorne and Jackson will all make strong efforts to keep them, so I’d like to add some names of some FA MLB to your list (as Plan B considerations) so maybe Tommy can ruminate on them too:
Dan Connor
Jameel McClain
Barret Ruud (has some injury issues)
EJ Henderson (maybe on wrong side of 30)
Some of these guys are probably at the point of their careers to be considered more low cost, stopgap measures than long term options at MLB. Here’s a recent list of all the 2012 FAs
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39667/59/nfl-free-agent-master-list
Yeah, I thought about adding those guys to the list too but wasn’t sure if they would be an upgrade for us at all. Henderson would probably be an upgrade although he may be sliding fast. And Connor was a guy I thought had potential years ago but has disappointed somewhat so far in his career. I really hope that if they do sign one of those guys you added it is just as insurance in case they can’t get Kuechly in the draft.
Also, I think you’re right that Hawthorne and Jackson will resign with their teams but I think Lofton may be able to test the waters since the Falcons also have to worry about resigning Grimes and Abraham. Or maybe thats just my false-hope.
I liked your list, and would love to see the Eagles add Lofton or Hawthorne (the injury issues with Jackson just scratch him for me). But considering Banner’s (or the Eagles FO) propensity to go for cheaper options I thought those additional names might be more realistic FA targets even though they are not the best FA available (recall LaVon Kirkland and Simoneau). I can’t see the Eagles going with a rook at starting MLB again in 2012 given how that failed this season (but out your top picks I’m favoring Hightower over Kuechly).
In any result, I think the Eagles will still need to draft a MLB for insurance (probably a midrounder), I think the neck injury to Chaney could be a problem.
Tommy’s opinion on Conner is that he’s nothing more than a decent MLB backup.
Even though he was a tackling machine at Penn St., I never thought he was better than Puz or Lee after him.
I like Kuechly for other reasons, but I’d never really measure a LB in college based a lot of tackles since Gino Capone led Penn St. in tackles a few times and he sucked.
Tommy,
How would you rate our options at MLB assuming we will have our choice of all available FA’s or rookies? I’d probably rank them in this order:
1. Curtis Lofton
2. Luke Kuechly
3. David Hawthorne
4. D’Qwell Jackson (dropped because of injury history and scheme uncertainty)
5. Stephen Tulloch
6. Donta Hightower
7. London Fletcher (dropped because of age)
8. Audie Cole
9. James-Michael Johnson
10. Vontaze Burfict
Also if we do sign one of the top 3 FA MLBs then I’d have to assume we won’t be franchising/resigning DJax. Wouldn’t that make Michael Floyd the logical pick at #15 instead of stocking up on DL? Our DL is in excellent condition, assuming that we will resign Landri. I just don’t see another lineman being able to make much impact with our current rotation. And a first rounder or even a high second should be someone we expect to contribute right away. Even though that hasn’t always been the case it shouldn’t change the team’s expectations.
Tommy, I don’t know of what real interest there is in Cam Johnson. I am a UVA alum and loved the guy, but there were times that he dissapeared in ACC play. He has also missed games due to injury and has sickle cell anemia. While the latter is treatable I am unaware if that condition is something that is problematic for a DE. You would think it might as the condition limits oxygen flow but I am no doctor.
I also am not sure all of the medical ramifications that would bring about but the fact that Ryan Clark has it and seems to play everywhere but Denver as well as the fact that NFL players have access to the best doctors on the planet makes it a minimal concern for me. In fact I think that it would actually be more manageable in a DE because of all the rotation, even in non wide 9 systems DEs will typically rotate at a decent clip.
The most important thing is acquiring good players. Let the rest sort itself. BPA is never a bad strategy.
I don’t think you can make a blanket statement like that. In most cases you’re probably right that BPA is a good strategy. But we are one key unit away from having a very good team from top to bottom. I just don’t see how stocking up at one position, which is probably our best and deepest position at this point (DE), will help us more than targeting our need at LB. There are other positions where we could justifiably upgrade our team but DE isn’t one of them. You just don’t pick a non-qb at 15 to be the 5th man in a rotation.
I also know that just because they’re talking to DEs doesn’t mean they will take one with their first pick though. But Coples and Upshaw are definitely top-20 guys which does worry me a bit about their plans.
I don’t think you can make a blanket statement like that. In most cases you’re probably right that BPA is a good strategy. But we are one key unit away from having a very good team from top to bottom. I just don’t see how stocking up at one position, which is probably our best and deepest position at this point (DE), will help us more than targeting our need at LB. There are other positions where we could justifiably upgrade our team but DE isn’t one of them. You just don’t pick a non-qb at 15 to be the 5th man in a rotation.
I also know that just because they’re talking to DEs doesn’t mean they will take one with their first pick though. But Coples and Upshaw are definitely top-20 guys which does worry me a bit about their plans.
Coles is starting to get nicked up and miss time, they need to be able to replace his production. Don’t just look at a top DE as some rotation in the puzzle, but an eventual replacement. If you can get that from Coples, it’s just as big as anything else on the Eagles. Look at how many top rushers the Giants have. The Eagles need to have that too, it will make other areas better.
The more I read about the OLB’s the more I think the idea of selecting one on the 2nd or 3rd. It sounds like there will be alot of options out there for teams looking to add one. I’m really interested in Demario Davis from Ark. St. He seems to be one of the leaders out there right now for the North (odd right that he’s playing with the north??) and having a very strong week.
You should even be able to find a MIKE in 2nd or 3rd as well. Hightower, Kuechly, and probably Burfict will be gone before the Birds select in the 2nd, but Cole may still be around and he seems to be having one of the best showings of any of the LBs so far. Wagner will be around, probably through the 3rd, and even into the 4th. I’d like to stay away from James Micheal-Johnson based on what I’ve read about Singletary ripping him on numerous occasions and his struggles so far.
All-in-all it sounds like this a great group for teams with diverse LB needs.
Smoke screen. We won’t take a DE early.
especially Cam Johnson. The dude’s 6’4″, 270 with fairly long arms….not our M.O for a DE!
Tommy –
Assuming the Eagles go MLB in FA, and assuming the Falcons re-up Lofton( which they said is their #1 priority) Hawthorne/D’Qwell Jackson/ or Tulluch…who would be your first choice if you were in Howies shoes and could have any of the three. I think I would lean toward Hawthorne.