Give ’em Time
Posted: February 3rd, 2012 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 97 Comments »Yesterday someone on Twitter asked me if the Eagles should look at taking an OL in the 1st round. He said that he still wasn’t happy with the OL. My response was that taking a G would be a waste because we’re fine there, but taking an OT is possible because we could use a young talented player there for the future. I want to expand on a couple of points there.
The blocking by the interior trio (Evan Mathis-Jason Kelce-Danny Watkins) wasn’t great in 2011. Mathis played at a high level, but the other two were very inconsistent, especially Watkins. On the surface, there is logic to adding a stud OG like David DeCastro. I can understand where some people would ask that question.
Here’s the thing…you just spent a high pick on Watkins. He has good potential. You can’t simply say “he wasn’t good in 2011 so let’s replace him”. That’s not how football works. Young, talented players must be given a chance to grow. 2011 was Watkins year to learn on the job. He’ll now have a full offseason to work on technique and master the position. Every rep he gets in mini-camps and passing camps will help him. It will make playing RG seem more natural.
If Watkins remains inconsistent in 2012, then we’ve got a problem. He is an older guy because of his background so he is expected to learn quicker. Frankly, it was disappointing that he struggled as he did in 2011. Still, he did enough right that you could see his potential. This is a guy who simply needs reps and coaching. He should develop into a good RG.
Kelce flashed big time talent. He simply needs to get stronger. If he can do that, and is able to get better at the little things, Kelce could become a very good C. He’s definitely headed in the right direction.
Were the Eagles good enough at G-C-G in 2011? No. The pieces are in place for them to be that in 2012. There’s no reason to spend a high pick. That would add talent, but wouldn’t be a smart use of resources. You need to let the young guys develop. Mathis is a FA, but he wants to come back and the Eagles want him back so I’m assuming that something will get worked out. If not, that could change things.
I’m not a fan of taking an OT this year because Peters and Herremans are set and can play for several more years. The OT would be sitting for at least one year. If a guy is available that is just too good to pass up, I’ll understand if they pull the trigger.
One other note about OL…stability is a huge help. You want the same guys playing if at all possible. My hope is to stick with the Peters -Mathis – Kelce – Watkins – Herrmans look in 2012. They functioned well as a unit. Build off 2011 rather than making changes.
Most people I think share my sentiments on the OL.
The same would not be said of the Safety situation, but I think the same standard applies there. The Eagles have invested high picks in Nate Allen and Jaiquawn Jarrett. Kurt Coleman wasn’t a high pick, but has started and shown potential. You need to let these guys play to find out what you have.
Allen looked terrific for parts of his rookie year. He had some strong games in 2011. Re-watch the BUF game and you’d think he was headed for the Pro Bowl. Re-watch the New England game and you’d think he was to be shot at dawn the next day. Not so good. I think you must keep him on the field to see if he can finally put it all together and play well for a whole season. Being healthy in 2012 is key.
Jarrett had a wasted rookie year. I was hoping he’d show us something in the season finale, but he certainly didn’t do anything to get our hopes up. I just don’t think you write him off based on 2011. The Eagles loved him coming out of college. Greg Cosell loved him. Other NFL teams were prepared to take him in the early 3rd round. All that stuff doesn’t mean the guy won’t turn out to be a bust, but I think you need to let him have a full offseason and see what he can do before making a realistic evaluation.
As for Coleman, we know what he can/can’t do. Limited athlete. Less than ideal size. Where he can improve is through experience. He’s got a lot of game tape he can now study to see what he did well and what he didn’t do well. Kurt is a grinder. He’ll work his tail off to be the best he can. He will be a better player in 2012 because he’ll be smarter. He will learn from his mistakes.
When you invest resources into players, you need to give them a chance to pan out. This is a terrible Safety class in the draft. Terrible. I think Mark Barron is the only guy I’d have serious interest in adding, but I don’t think that would be smart because of the investment we’ve already got there. I think there will be some mid to late round guys of interest that you could add to the mix, but no one I would expect to challenge the current group in 2012.
Could you go after a pricey FA? Possible, but there aren’t great choices. LaRon Landry has elite talent, but serious injury issues. Other players are solid, but you have to question if they’re going to be worth the money they demand. I’d rather stick with the guys we have and find out if they can get the job done. Find some mid-level FA to add to the mix. See if we can luck into the Evan Mathis of the Safety crop.
Out of curiosity, how many people remember Erik McMillan?
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For those who want more on DeSean, Brian Solomon had some thoughts.
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Dan Klausner took a look at an under the radar LB over at ScoutsNotebook.
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Lots of draft questions from you guys. I’ll put something together for a weekend post.
Give ’em Time? Is that kind of like “Give ’em Hell”?
But seriously, if they take an OL in the first round in back-to-back drafts, it would be ridiculous and only emphasize what a wasted pick the Watkins kid was in the 2011 draft when better players at more important positions where available (Jimmy Smith, Gabe Carimi, Muhamed Wilkerson, Cameron Jordan, Marvin Austin).
Look at the New York Giants – they haven’t invested highly in OL for maybe a decade, and yet they are a perennial Super Bowl team now. Why? Because OL is overrated. Eli Manning makes his OL look better, while Michael Vick makes his OL look worse. The Giants invest in DL instead of OL in the draft, and are clearly successful for doing so.
And let’s remember that the OL on the Eagles is actually one of the team’s better units. Jason Peters played on the level of Walter Jones last year, while Evan Mathis played on the level of Steve Hutchinson. The left side of the OL is the best left side in the NFL. If they can resign Mathis, they’ll be fine with what they have. If they can’t resign him, there is no need to reach for a replacement in the first round of the draft. That’s called “drafting for need and not for value” and is what killed them the past two drafts.
BPA at DL, or maybe CB/WR. That’s the only way to go in the 2012 draft.
Carimi was injured and didn’t play a lot (BUST)
Austin was injured and didn’t play a all (BUST)
I am of course kidding regarding the bust-tags, but that seems to be your label when players get injured… And the other 3 guys played marginal roles on their teams. I know you loved all of those players above in last years draft, but none of them had a high influence on their teams. I wasn’t happy about the Watkins pick, but you have to look at the big picture… Not one player taken after Watkins would have had a big influence on the way we played in 2011.
The Giants are NOT a better team than us! They have simply been more lucky than should happen to anyone! I realize they are in the Super Bowl, but even though we played badly in 2011, I think we are the clear cut better team in the NFC East (not that it’s saying a lot)
If Carimi and Austin are busts because they were injured/didn’t play a lot, then that means Graham, Allen, Jarrett, are busts…
You’re exactly the reason why Eagle fans are hated so much…How can you say that we’re better than the Giants? They have a better QB, pass rush, and their defensive backs have played better than ours…That’s sad when you have Corey Webster, Aaron Ross and Prince performing better than DRC, Asante, and Nnamdi…Terrell Thomas, one of their best CB’s, was injured all of this season…
Their WR’s are better than ours. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Manningham are better than DeSean, Maclin, and Avant. Avant is better than Manningham but DeSean and Maclin are not even close to Cruz and Nicks. Cruz and Nicks are complete WR’s that don’t have elite speed but have good speed. They’re actually dynamic and ARE NOT limited in what routes they can run and be effective…DeSean cannot go over the middle and can only run go routes, deep posts/corners…Maclin is decent as a deep threat, but most effective in intermediate crossing routes IMO…But our starting WR’s cannot go over the middle for the most part. Why did Maclin drop that 4th and 4 against ATL? You can make a million excuses/reasons but my guess is he was afraid of the hit.
DeSean is a playmaker at WR…But that doesn’t happen consistently and TBH, his skill is equivalent to the average teams 3rd string WR..
Heck, even their linebackers are better…They had Jonathan Goff go down in preseason and they have Kiwi at LB…He’s really a defensive end…Chase Blackburn was a former backup special teamer for the Giants for years, and he’s starting for them after getting picked up off the streets, and doing a pretty solid job…
We got whooped by the Pats at home and they went up to Foxboro and beat them. They went up to Lambeau and pretty much stomped on the Packers…They went to SF and put up enough points to beat the 9ers…You can say the Williams fumble was the only reason, or that their offense is bad…Either way the 9ers had home field advantage and were 13-3 in the Regular Season…They also beat the Saints the week before…
They’re in the Superbowl because they’re the best team in the NFC.
He was making a joke based on the fact that Morton has called Graham and Allen bust picks because of their injuries.
Sorry,
but you are REALLY difficult to take serious, when you CLEARLY don’t read everything I write!
“I am of course kidding regarding the bust-tags”
I think it’s a bit early to get all personal, when you can’t even make it through 3 lines… If you read some of my other posts you’ll see that I am a big fan of Allen, and I still have high hopes for Graham and Jarrett.
Why am I hated so much? Because I truly believe we have a better team than the Giants? I don’t think that makes me a bad fan at all! I accept the fact that the Giants have played well in the post-season and therefore deserve to be in the Super Bowl! (Am I a bad fan to hope they loose??)
I truly think that our team has the overall better talent, and although you can argue that their WRs are better than ours, I don’t think it is written in stone.
I really can’t understand how you can call me a hated fan, just because I have faith in my team??
Having faith in your team is believing in your team.
Having faith has nothing to do with your statement that “The Giants are NOT better than us” and that they got “lucky”?
It’s a QB driven league…
They have a better QB…
It’s important to have a good pass rush.
They have a better pass rush.
“You can never have enough good corners”
They arguably have a better secondary.
Nnamdi is a great corner but I’m shaking my head on his season last year. You can say Juan put too much on his plate but how does that explain Victor Cruz out jumping him in week 3?
Asante will be gone next year.
DRC is a good solid corner.
Joselio is a decent slot corner with no upside.
Marsh and Hughes are question marks. Both have talent but who knows how they will turn out?
Giants have Corey Webster who is probably as good as DRC.
They have Terrell Thomas who was injured in the preseason. He’s just as good as Webster.
They have Prince Amukamara that has tremendous upside.
They have Aaron Ross who was underachieved but is still decent.
Our LB’s are equal to the Giants IMO…I think ours are a tad bit better.
I think we have a better OLine as of right now.
We have better TE’s IMO..
They have better WR’s. Their WR’s that are dynamic and that can go over the middle. DeSean has the home run threat but besides that, he should be a 3rd string WR.
We a better starting RB than theirs but overall, it might be a tie. Dion Lewis flashed in the Redskins game. If he builds and improves on that, I think we have the better RB’s.
I’m not saying Cruz won’t be a good receiver, but come on. One season and you make him sound like he’s the next Jerry Rice. Let’s see him be consistent for 2-3 more years…
Cruz is a good receiver now…no maybe about it
You my friend are crazy..the Giants are currently a better team(hence they are playing in the Super Bowl)they have a QB that makes the big plays…enough said
I sure wouldn’t call the Giants a better team. I would call them a luckier team… but I definitely wouldn’t call them better based on the performance this year.
Would you mind making a list of players you LOVE and hope the Eagles target in the 1st round? Just for future reference…
I hope to get one of the following at 15 – before knowing who we get in FA:
CB M. Claiborne
DT Q. Coples
WR J. Blackmon
LB L. Kuechly
If none of those are available I hope we trade down in the mid- to late 20’s. Then my list would be:
WR K. Wright
CB Kirkpatrick
DT D. Still
OLB Z. Brown
Love what I’ve seen out of Demario Davis. And the article doesn’t mention it but he has a reputation as a really vocal leader too. Plays physical and fast. I’m still beating the drum for Luke (I think with him in the middle, we’d instantly become a much “smarter” defense) but Demario would be a nice consolation.
“Plays physical and fast”
dukebowden = Juan Castillo? Who knew…
Davis could actually play SAM in our system, so we could go after him in the draft after we address MLB (Kuechly or FA). And you’re right. he is a good player.
I may be too easily swayed… but after reading that link I want this kid and an answer at MLB. Wow.
Ark State puts out some good football players. A few years ago I was all over Alex Carrington (a 6’5″ DE) and hoped the Eagles would pick him, bit no drafted by the Bills.
Heya duke… I haven’t followed this kid, but the line in the review that jumped off the page and shouted in my face.. “GET THIS KID” was:
“Unquestioned emotional leader of one of the nation’s best overall defenses.”
Tommy
You are so patient with the Safeties! If we sign someone like LaRon and he gets hurt, you get what you want and the other guys play…
I think we need to add veteran talent at Safety. Let the younger guys fight for a starting position. Lets not give it to them on a silver platter…..
Unfortunately for me, I think the Eagles will probably follow your type of thinking.
Personally I will like us to play for THIS season. When you are an Eagles fan, we have all waited long enough. Its always better to have too much talent at one position than to not have enough once the season starts.
There are limited resources. You only have so many Cap dollars. You only have so many draft picks. You have to be careful about how you use them. In a world based solely on performance, going for a guy like Landry would be great. But when you have to pay him huge bucks and that affects other spots, it isn’t as logical a move.
If I didn’t believe in Nate and Kurt, I wouldn’t be so patient with Jarrett.
The Eagles think they are smarter than everyone else. They try to build a team with salary cap room for years ahead. Thats smart if we could actually make it to the Super Bowl in 1 season and win it. We cant keep “planning for the future” when we need to win a championship today.
We need to invest in talent. Im sure Nate, Coleman and Jarrett arent making that much in their safety position, investing in the safety spot and linebacker would be a real good investment this offseason.
(I really hope you are right about those guys but seriously after last season Im not so sure I want to place my faith in the uncertain… I would like to place my bets on as close to certain as we can… and play out our cards that way)
“The Eagles think they are smarter than everyone else.” Sometimes that is true, but not in this case. The Eagles spent high picks on Allen, Jarrett. They aren’t trying to get by with lesser talent. These are young guys that simply aren’t proven.
Now your statement does apply to LB. That I agree with.
When Sean Berry came out and everyone knew he was the ultimate safety, why didnt the Eagles do everything they could and move up and grab him… (I know he was a very high pick). And why didnt the Eagles take Pro Bowler Earl Thomas (every mock draft that year had us taking him) … But we take out of a position of strength (DL) …
Again I want those guys to succeed I just dont want to “bet” another season on whether unproven players can give us a full season and play at a high productive level.
And I think the Eagles will probably follow your thinking much to my dismay. They always seem to “over estimate” their players abilities and are surprised when they fail during season play. I really hope you are right Tommy and I really hope the Eagles evaluate correctly and bring in the right players to win in this season (not just the future).
Eric Berry. Eagles did look into moving up, but he went at pick 5. Huge cost to move that high.
I think trading multiple picks and players could be worth it for someone you figure is a superior talent. I just dont see the Eagles accomplishing that. Now they did move up for B Graham but he hasnt demonstrated himself (yet) as a superior talent and he certaintly wasnt at Eric Berry type level.
Tommy this is just my observation, but I think the Eagles like having a lot of draft picks and drafting a big pool of players. I, on the other hand would like them to pool their resources to acquire the best players not just wait until their draft spots to pick whose left. (I know they did move around alittle but not as much as I would like them to)
What would it haven taken to get Sean Berry? Since we do not draft well giving up picks would be worth a player of his caliber (Yes we do manage to get a few players right but not on defense)
To get down to the #5:
Based on the value chart it would have taken our #1 (24th), #2 (#37 Nate Allen), our 2 #3s we originally traded (70th, 87th) and our 5th (135th Ricky Sapp)
So you would essentially mortgage 5 picks to pick up Berry, a stud, but has only played in 17 games in his first 2 season due to injury and forgo 2 starters, Graham and Allen, leaving a hole at DE for the 2010 season?
Well if Berry doesnt make it back from his injury sure. But if hes the stud everyone knew he is and played in his rookie year and the beginning of this year well no. None of the Eagles draft picks they would have surrendered would have been that big of sacrifice. They are horrible drafters on the defensive side of the ball. And the last few defensive drafts have been nothing but “projects” “wishful thinking” and players getting released.
Eagles always had some kind of rotation on the DL so they could have survived without drafting “another” DE. FA could have addressed that need moderately.
CHFF did a study a few years back on safeties and how much they translate to wins. There wasn’t a very good correlation there as to good safeties equating to wins, but you can manipulate data to suit any assertion, I guess.
Redskins used top 5 picks on Taylor and Landry. Ignoring Taylor’s sad fate, both players were still disappointments.
Ed Reed was a late 1st rd pick, not that big, not that fast.
Super athletes aren’t always super players.
More so for Landry than Taylor. He was good and getting better. He would’ve been a stud. Landry was lights out two years ago, but the injuries will keep him from reaching potential.
Is that a combination of Sean Jones and Eric Berry? I would think Sean Jones would make the combination much less effective.
No unfortunately we could have still taken Kurt Coleman or a dozen other 6th or 7th round defensive replacements. No worries.
I disagree that willingness to invest in talent is a problem. Certainly in 2011, that wasn’t the issue at all. And I don’t think you can look at the past few years and think that the Eagles are underspending.
It isn’t willingness to invest, it is investing in the right guys. If you want to criticize the organization at this point, that’s going to be a more compelling angle.
EDIT: By the way, what organization DOESN’T think it’s smarter than everyone else?
Well drafting players can be more of a crap shoot, signing a free agent that has experience could help this defense (thats what I mean when I say “investing”)
In terms of drafting, I like to see the Eagles use less picks and move around to get a few caliber players instead of drafting so many players each year.
I dont think they are spending money at the safety position by having 3 rookies man the spot. We are due to spend some $$$ there.
As I have been saying: lets try to win now 2012.
if you equate draft picks to $$$, they’ve already been spending. 2 second round picks in two years is a pretty big investment
I’ll bet the Colts don’t think they’re smarter than everyone else after last season. Hurr hurr.
I’m sorry, but I think this is kind of dumb: “We cant keep “planning for the future” when we need to win a championship today.”
That’s really, really, really short-sighted. There are no guarantees in the NFL. Players – vets and rookies – can be boom or bust. Same with coaches. You absolutely must hedge your bets and play risk management. The Eagles do that by managing the cap well and not overpaying aging players. The wrong drafts or FA signings can set your franchise back DECADES.
Then even if you want to ignore all the danger signs and “sell out” to win a Super Bowl “today,” you could still end up not getting there because of injuries, fluke plays, hot teams at the right time, etc. Again, no guarantees.
What you’re saying, essentially, is go to Vegas and put all your savings on black because you want to be wealthy today. OR, you could invest in your company 401K and win in the long run without the dramatic risk. The Eagles are making that same decision, but with a billion-dollar organization at stake.
You are not saying much about a franchise that has NEVER won a Super Bowl…. We should play for one season since we basically have pieces in place that should make us competitve (and are aging). Nothing in the future is guaranteed. You should know that. We should play for what we can now and plan accordingly for the future. The problem with this franchise is that they have the hands in too many pots and it keeps us from actually winning now and thats a shame. It gets old waiting forever for a trophy.
I’m 100% with Tommy on this one… if not even more in support of the guys we have.
Coleman is a good replacement for Q (effort guy who will get better with reps)
Allen is talented but injured and will develop his talent with reps
Jarrett… i think is a big ? but I’m willing to be optimistic because he was in a new system without an offseason and with a lousy DBs coach and a brand new DC… give the kid a chance.
For me, adding a veteran safety is a mistake… limited upside compared to the price we may have to pay. It’s almost certain that another team will drive the price up for what would for us be a very small upgrade. And a possible total waste in the event of injury.
Tommy,
PFF has our line as one of the very best there is in the league. I absolutely agree that we need to add some depth, preferably both through the draft and FA. Both Peters and Mathis are at the very top of NFL players at their position, and the others will only improve in 2012! I am very happy with our O-line, and I think it will be a strength going forward.
Now, if someone we like at OT is there at 15, I wouldn’t mind the pick. Maybe Mike Adams from Ohio State – I think he would be very good at RT for us. But will Reid select someone in the 1st round that he know will sit on the bench, in a season where he NEEDS to win?!? I doubt it…
I think OT isn’t likely, but you can’t completely rule it out. What if that’s the best guy on the board…and it’s not even close? Can you pass him up? Do you trade back?
I do like some mid-round OT prospects. Would like to see what Mudd can do with them.
I wouldn’t mind an OG in the 2nd or 3rd round.
But I’d be about as surprised to see Andy take an O Lineman out of the blue as I would be to see him order a second hamburger.
“PFF has our line as one of the very best there is in the league. ”
I think that points out the huge difference in attitude towards the safeties compared to the oline. The oline as a unit played fairly well this season. They had their struggles, but overall, they played very well. On top of that, outside of Peters and maybe Mathis, the expectation is that everyone should improve (Kelce and Watkins were rookies, while Herremans was adjusting to RT).
The safeties are a completely different story. None of our safeties stood out, and certainly, our two 2nd round picks have not lived up to their early round selection so far (just to be clear, I’m not implying they are busts. Just stating they haven’t fulfilled expectations so far). While I fully agree with Tommy that there is plenty of room for these guys to improve, unlike the oline, most people were disappointed with how they performed last season, and a repeat of that would be unsatisfactory.
kurt coleman led the team in interceptions playing with the likes of nnamdi and asante. that stands out a little
Yea, but Coleman is a guy that even Tommy would prefer to be our 3rd safety and coming off the bench, long term.
Regarding the safeties…
I for one love Kurt Coleman! I know he isn’t the best safety in the NFL, but I think he can become the next Ryan Clark. I was actually disappointed that we selected Jarrett last year, because I wanted Kurt to be the guy.. And if he didn’t pan out, I would have selected Mark Barron this year, who I have had a crush on the past 3 years.
Doesn’t Jarrett and Coleman remind a lot like each other? Both limited athletes that tackles well, but isn’t strong in coverage…
Nate Allen will be fine, I hope he will be great next year, but he will at least be a good starting FS. Give me some LBs, and let Coleman, Allen, Rolle and Graham develop… Then I’ll be happy!
Coleman the next Ryan Clark? I hope your reasoning behind that is because Ryan Clark was undrafted and Coleman almost went undrafted after getting picked in the 7th round.
Besides the fact that they were both good performers in college despite lacking great athletic abilities, they have the similar size. Clark is 5-11 and about 200 lbs, and Coleman is 5-11 and about 198 lbs.
They both played at well-known colleges where they were team-leaders and started most of their careers. Am I totally unreasonable to think that Coleman can develop into a good starting safety for us??
You’re not the one who is overreacting here Jeppe…
I think most realistic fans agree with your ideas about Coleman. Don’t succumb to Negadelphianisms! Fight the good fight : )
Tommy,
I get what you are saying, but what do you think about this line of thinking? The goal should be a dominant offensive line due to our small QB, amount we throw the ball, and good young RB. Would we have a better offensive line if we moved Herremans back to LG, and then drafted a top tier RT in the first round?
Also, any thoughts on London Fletcher? I think he is the perfect fit if he can play at a high level the next two years. It gives Matthews a chance to develop and adds a short term quality player.
One more, do you think Tom Zibikowski has any value as a backup safety for the Eagles and punt returner?
Thanks,
Scott
I’d be with you, but Evan Mathis was terrific in 2011. I’m not sure Todd is much of an upgrade on him. Could a rookie RT be an upgrade on Todd at that spot? Maybe. Not sure if the risk is worth it, but maybe.
Love London Fletcher. He’s a man’s man. I’d be fine with the Eagles signing him to a short deal and adding a young guy in the draft to compete with Casey.
Zibby? Is he a FA? I don’t know a ton about how he’s played. I know he’s been up and down. He could be an interesting guy. Does have some RS experience. He has some S potential. I’ll have to do some research on him.
and he can box!!
Hey Tommy, what about Tyvon Branch?
He’s young, has good size, can tackle, has speed, and had something we haven’t seem in an eagles safety in a while: playmaking ability!
I’m not sure how much he’ll cost, but would you have any interest in him?
Gotta watch tape, but Greg Cosell is high on him so that says a lot. He’s of interest, but will likely cost a lot. Is he worth the price you pay vs finding out if your own young guys can play? Branch took time to develop. So do most young Safeties. Very few guys are stars early on. The Dawk of 1996-98 wasn’t the guy we remember from 1999-2008. Much more inconsistent.
I don’t think we lack talent at Safety.
I do think we lack talent at LB. That’s the position that must be upgraded. Safety is a spot where we just don’t know how the young guys will pan out.
If the Eagles do go for someone, Branch could be a good target.
Since the front office apparently believes that the failures were all Johnnie Lynn’s fault, is it possible that Jarrett will be able to improve under better coaching? I agree that these safeties should be allowed to pan out, mostly because some consistency may help, and because this is a perfect example of change for change’s sake. There just isnt a huge guaranteed increase, and experience outweighs the minor talent increases or cap hits.
Also, how much of Juan’s flipping the strong and free definitions hurt these guys. Was Jarret not able to play in the box where he should have helped more because his responsibilities were altered. Could this have effected Allen also? I dont know how much of this is nothing or how much Juan may have adjusted away from or back to standards.
Johnnie Lynn is no scapegoat. Todd Bowles is just a better coach. A good assistant can make a big difference.
The Texans DBs were much better this year than last. New DBs coach Vance Joseph did great things with his players. Joseph is a name to watch down the road.
Who knows if Bowles will connect with the players and get the best out of them. I certainly hope so. He will have talent to work with. We need Nate to stay healthy and Jarrett to adjust to NFL football.
Not sure about Juan and the FS/SS thing. He said it was title only. Still seems pretty dumb to me. Safety isn’t what it used to be. Becoming more and more interchangeable. I have mixed feelings about that, but with teams throwing like they do it is hard to have a pure box player at SS anymore.
It seems to me watching the games that Coleman mostly played in the box on the right side and Allen played deeper on the left side, though the need to protect Asante may have been a reason for that configuration.
Tommy,
Any thoughts on the addition of Keith Gray? It reminded me after you mentioned Kelce getting stronger.
I’m not going to lie and tell you I know anything special about him. I’m a believer in Barry Rubin. That guy was great in the 2010 offseason. I’m hoping he gets the guys to buy in again this offseason. If Rubin likes Gray, I like him.
Did Robert Lester come out? He’s a BALLHAWK…
He stayed. Could be a target next year if the guys don’t play well this year.
I think maybe the question some had regarding our OL is that I’m sure we’re not the only team that seen just how good Mathis can be. So if we get caught in a bidding match for him, we might be looking for a LG in 2012. Although there is the possibility of moving Todd back there and starting Justice at RT again, if that should happen.
If we lose Mathis, then shifting Todd and drafting OT is definitely possible.
Mathis won’t fit all systems. He’s not quite the Babin of the OL, but he’s much better in Mudd system than on other teams.
OLINE???? Didn’t shady almost win the rushing title on a pass first offense? I think this Oline gels this year, Kelce and Watkins become dominant players and Shady does win the rushing title. We do have the best left side OLine in the NFL, and I think Watkins will make leaps and bounds from this offseason of work and gel with Herrimans. Danny can run block, just needs to work on his pass pro.
I think we sign a vet safety, but not Landry…we can’t have allstars at every position. We will have a lot of cap space (even more if Desean leaves) but we need to sign, Mathis and Landri, and give Shady a new deal. I also think Trent Cole is due some cash. Guy does nothing but play and beat people up (see Sam Baker during the Falcons game). He has outplayed his contract. Plus we have a lot of high draft picks this year, so that will cost some $$$. Plus if we address MLB, backup QB, and backup RB in FA, that is going to cost $$$.
I am sticking with my FA siginings….
MLB – (dream curtis lofton, but any of the FA are better than what we have)
DT – Jason Jones
DT = Landri
OG – Mathis
Backup QB (I have a feeling its Trent Edwards)
Backup RB – not sure who, but we need someone
If Desean leaves, I think we can fill his hole, without picking up a FA WR. At 15 we could ger Kendall Wright or Micheal Floyd. We could use a second on Joe Adams. You now have a strong #2 and an (what I feel) an upgrade at slot. YOu can use your other 2nd, 3rd (maybe a second 3rd for Asante) and 2 fourths, on OLB’s, DE, Slot Corner, and maybe OL depth.
Tommy: I didn’t get a chance to comment on the QB article, but what about making a run for Matt Flynn?
He’ll get big money this year. MIA will go hard for him if they pass on Manning.
We really need to see Vick play. With a full offseason, he could move right back to being an elite QB. If he’s inconsistent again, then we know we must get a QB to compete with him or outright take the job.
2010 Vick was a guy to be excited about.
2011 Vick was highly frustrating.
2012 Vick…?
Tommy I have to disagree…Vick has never been elite..YES he has played very good for 4-5 games at a time but never elite
I think your disagreement is an epistemological one.
Re: O-line & McCoy
McCoy nearly won the rushing title this year. Going forward, I hope McCoy never wins a rushing title. Here’s why . . . .
Historically, the team with the RB who wins the rushing title is almost guaranteed NOT to win the NFL championship — or even make the Super Bowl.
That’s been true for 50 years.
In the 58 championship/Super Bowl games since the AFL’s creation 1960, the RB who won the NFL rushing title played that year in only 5 Super Bowls and 2 pre-SB league title games.
In 1961, Billy Cannon led the ALF in rushing for the AFL champion Houston Oilers (w/ HOF George Blanda at the helm).
In 1964, Jim Brown led the NFL in rushing for the (surprise) NFL champion Cleveland Browns (QB was Frank Ryan, PhD . . . but WRs HOF Paul Warfield and All Pro Garry Collins).
In 1992, 1993, and 1995, the hated Emmitt Smith of the ‘Boys led the NFL in rushing for the SB champs (w/ HOF Troy Aikman and HOF Michael Irvin).
In 1998, Terrell Davis of Denver led the NFL in rushing for the SB champ Broncos (led by HOF John Elway and WRs Rod Smith and Ed McCaffery)
In 2005, Seattle’s Shaun Alexander led the NFL in rushing — and was barely the same running back within a couple of years — for Seattle, which lost to the Steelers.
More than ever, the NFL’s about the QB. [Jeez, New England’s best RB is a guy named Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis, who was an unremarkable HB in college at Ole Miss.]
I really love watching Shady . . . as in “shades of Gale Sayers.”
But history says don’t build the offense around him — unless the Eagles get an HOF QB and big, physical WR.
Off Topic . . . but talk about weird Karma.
In 2007, the Eagles were 8-8. The Giants won the SB.
In 2011 . . . well, you get the picture.
Weird.
And Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln.
BINGO!!!
What you see from Kurt Coleman, is what you’re going to get. He’ll get better because of experience but that’s the same with any player that gets a lot of playing time..He’s only starting because we lack good, solid and CONSISTENT safeties…
I’m sorry, but I totally DISAGREE with your “Give ’em time” motto…
This year will be a “Superbowl or Bust, and then tear apart your team”…
AR has been here for a decade +
Vick will be in his 3rd year of major playing time in Philly. He’s played many years in ATL…I think what we see is what we’re going to get from Vick…If he doesn’t show great improvement next year with a full offseason, then I bet we look to get rid of him and find another franchise QB…
Nnamdi, Babin, Cole, Patterson, Jenkins, Herremans, Peters, and Mathis are soon to be, or over the age of 30..Those are key players/best players of our team…Doesn’t our team value DL and OL? Well when your 2 best pass rushers and OT are getting close to 30, that’s bad…Mathis is 30+…Jenkins and Patterson are 29+….Nnamdi is 31.
Behind those players, we have nothing or players with question marks….
Don’t get me started on Watkins…There’s hope that he can develop to be a good RG, but there’s no reason, based on his play, that he will..Behind Babin and Cole, you have Graham and some other players that will never be a starter…Graham is a huge question mark….
We have backup OL that look like a future starter…We have no future QB behind Vick. Kafka is not the answer to the future…
And positons that we’re young at, they are huge question marks…No one at safety is reliable/consistent…They might flash for a game but they haven’t shown us that they can play at a high level CONSISTENTLY…
Same goes with LB……
Do people realize that we wouldn’t have made it to the playoffs in 2010 if Vick didn’t save us and play lights out? Even that year, Vick slowed down and regressed…
Had Kolb played, we would have been at best, a .500 team….
That’s because the team in general was in rebuild mode…Not complete rebuild mode, but still rebuild mode…
Just because we added Jenkins, Babin, Nnamdi, and Babin, people thought we were going to win the NFC and go far into the playoffs…Now that we didn’t, people say that we choked or whatever….But just because you add those players, it doesn’t mean you have a playoff team…
OUR DRAFT PICKS NEED TO PERFORM TO…WE HAVE BEEN RELYING ON OUR FA ACQUISITIONS AND FORMER PLAYERS TO PERFORM ONLY!!!
WE NEED OUR DRAFT PICKS TO MAKE A IMPACT….
In our past 3 drafts we have done nothing…With the EXCEPTION of LeSean and Maclin in 09….The rest of our 2009 draft has done nothing…Our 2010 draft hasn’t done anything, and same goes for 2011…Maybe you can exclude Kelce and Henery, LOL…That’s bad…When your teams best rookie was a 5th round pick? LOL…
Yeah in the 09 draft class we have Fokou that has played/started for a good amount of time. But he was a 7th round pick that is barely a overachiever. Same goes for Kurt Coleman and Jamar Chaney…Late round picks that only play because the starters in front of them either were hurt or there’s no talent in front of them…NONE OF THEM ARE DIFFERENCE MAKERS…
The motto should be “Stop drafting bums”
Yes, it’s clearly me who is the bad fan here…
Nnamdi, Babin, Cole, Patterson, Jenkins, Herremans, Peters, and Mathis are about to be 30 or older. Yes. But when has experience been a bad thing?
The Giants starting OTs are 32 (McKenzie) and 31 (Diehl)! The rest of the O-Line is 30 (Snee), 30 (Bass) and 28 (Boothe).
So what you’re saying is, that it’s bad when the Eagles starting OTs are 30 or older, but when it’s the Giants starting OTs it’s a strength?? I really have a hard time understanding your logic.
Umenyiora and Tuck will be 30 and 29 years old when the new season begins
Ross and Webster will be 30 when the new season begins
Asomugha and DRC will be 31 and 26 when the new season begins
Cole and Babin will be 30 and 31 when the new season begins
Yes, the Giants struck gold (got lucky) when they drafted JPP, but other than him, how have the Giants been better at developing a team through the draft? Cruz has developed into a good receicer, but do I need to remind you that 32 teams passed on him 7! times?!!?!?!?
How many teams have a future starter at back-up QB? Is David Carr a future starter??
Lastly, I find it kind of funny that you simply discard last seasons play-off run, because Vick played lights out, and saved our season. Isn’t that what you want your star QB to do?? Haven’t Eli done that this year for the Giants??
Yes, our draft has to be better. Yes, our FA’s should have performed at a higher level. They didn’t. I get that. But did you have the same negativity against the team before the season started?? Or is it just now??
You say our drafts have been bad, and go on excluding some of those drafts best and better players at their position (McCoy and Maclin). How can you even be serious??
Morton has reverted to making coherent logical arguments. Now this Joe Taylor emerges and is so negative I’m pretty sure an orphanage for adorable children and puppies just collapsed. Coincidence?
Awesome.
I hope Johnny and Pony Boy are there to help save the orphans.
Joe,
Can you stop brutalizing the period button on your keyboard? Thanks.
Any relation to Sonny Crockett?
Not only was their no offseason for Watkins, but he also held out and lost crucial time when the offense is installed. That had to hurt. And there is only so much learning you can do during the season.
I would get a full offseason will greatly benefit him.
Tommy,
Would love your thoughts on this article:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2017409917_apfbnsuperbowlanalytics.html
The big takeaway, for me, is:
1) “D” doesn’t win titles
2) High 1strd picks overvalued
3) Go for it on 4th/2
4) Icing K doesn’t work
5) RBs overrated
As someone who has a strong background in econometrics, I appreciate the value of statistics, but also their limitations. One must be careful comparing baseball with football, baseball is full of discrete events, so that data points tend to be independent. Football is full of interdependent events, and statistics can be misleading, because of what’s called “left out variable error.”
Take the idea that an average RB behind a good line is equivalent to a top RB behind an average line. How do you determine what is an average RB? Sometimes you have two or three backs and they have different YPC, that might be due to talent, that might be due to role (short yard backs, for example). PFF and FO try to isolate some of these factors, but even then they can’t fully account for interactions. Plus, unless you have a Mudd as your OL coach, it’s a lot more expensive to find 3 or 4 excellent OL v 1 excellent RB. And there is an interaction between the type of RB and the style of blocking – Shanahan has exploited this to get good production from average backs – but the more limited the RB, the easier it is for a good defense to shut him down (a one cut back can get big yardage against mediocre defenses on stretch plays, but lack the agility to reverse the field against good defenses that take away those gaps).
High first rd picks are “overvalued” in the sense that their expected “raw” value of success is less than the picks you could trade them for, but that’s because they’re more often used for positions of high value but high variability like QB. They’re also used for players who’s excess value is hard to quantify, how do you develop a metric that shows how much more valuable Urlacher is over Beason as a MLB, they’re all starters, they’ve made probowls, but I don’t think anyone would claim they’re even close to equivalent as players. So it may make sense to trade down when Peyton is your QB, but when you have Rodney Peete, you stay at #2 and take McNabb.
PFF says Asante is one of the best CBs in the NFL, but don’t expect anyone to offer a 1st rd pick, because watching film exposes him as a limited player who must be protected and who doesn’t make the players around him better – an aspect that doesn’t exist in baseball (it’s been showing there’s no such thing as “protection” in a lineup), but certainly exists in the NFL – just look at the Indy defense with and without Bob Sanders over the years. Fit is far more important in football. One of the things that’s difficult to measure is when a player doesn’t do his job, he may not have a direct impact on a play, but he may force other players to shade over to cover for him, or he may fail to cover underneath making the throw against a CB easier, etc. That doesn’t show up in any metrics, but it does show up on film if you know his assignment.
Some thoughts:
DeSean: I’m not going to reiterate my belief that most people overrate his value. However, whatever decision you make, it should be to shit or get off the pot. – i.e. pay the man what he wants or move on, trading him off a franchise tag will be close to impossible (too many FA WRs, too many WRs in the draft these days, he wants too much money for a team to throw in a high draft pick), and will tie up $9.5M in cap room. We’ve seen this movie before, just take the money and run if you don’t want to pay him.
OL: I don’t care what you’ve invested in the past, that’s sunk costs, I care what potential value those assets have in the future and how that effects the value of drafting another player at that position. You could draft an OG high and move him into LG, but is that a better use of resources than resigning what should be a very affordable Mathis (not too many teams where he’s a good fit, and teams will discount his performance due to the Mudd effect). A name that should be kept in mind is Jake Scott, also 31, former Mudd starter and capable of stepping right in.
S: Same thing. If all three young safeties are question marks, and you can add Branch at a reasonable price, go for it, if you have to give him a Rolle contract, forget it – Rolle has been a bust with the Giants – you spend for guys like Ed Reed, not for a good tackler with limited coverage skills. If I’m paying $7-8M for a safety or LB, I want a game changer, not a dependable starter. Pay for the best, fill in the rest.
LB: Davis is what they should be looking for, high potential player. Though I would think FA first and draft someone like Davis to sit for a year, hit the weights and challenge at 240 lbs in 2013. Spencer might be a good fit at SLB, I like Lawson as well now that Cincy taught him 4-3 SLB. There’s a long list of MLBs that will be available. If you want a sleeper in the draft, I’d look at Shea McClellin, who looked good at LB at the Senior Bowl.
Important thing is not lock yourself into the past, teams evolve. So you don’t keep DeSean because he was a deep threat, you can always adjust your offensive scheme around new players, AR has done that for a decade (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008-2011). The key is to maximize the use of your resources, which does not mean getting the best players, it means getting the best GROUP of players for the SCHEMES you want to run. So if you’ve changed what you want to do on offense to incorporate DeSean’s talents, letting him walk and using the $10M in cap room for other players that are a better fit and allow you to spread the ball around the field might be addition by subtraction. Signing a free agent strong safety who gives you confidence might allow you to play a rookie LB. As we’ve seen, maintaining a solid 8 man DL rotation allows you to get superstar production out of good but not great players.
So the focus shouldn’t be whether player X is better than player Y, but when the dust settles, do we have a group of players who’ll play better than the previous season. London Fletcher might not be as talented as Lofton, but if he can mentor young LBs and settle young safeties, he might be a better choice. Chemistry and fit are as important as talent.
This pretty much sums it up.
“Last year we win 10 games and we don’t qualify for the tournament and you’re not that smart,” Reese said. “This time, we win nine games, win a division, less games, and now it seems I’m pretty smart again. It just comes with the territory and that’s just part of it. It just is what it is.”
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/03/jerry-reese-is-smart-again/
In April 2010, when the Eagles moved up to select B-Graham, AR justified the choice of a DE over a safety by saying, in essence, “a good pass rush will make the DBs better.”
In 2011, the Eagles were, what, 2nd in sacks in the NFL?
QUESTION: Did the Eagles’ 2011 pass-rush make the Eagles DBs better — even w/ the addition of Nnamdi and DRC?
If the answer is “no,” then was AR’s theory wrong? Or is the problem elsewhere? (And I find it hard to believe, but I’m willing to be persuaded, that the answer is Johnny Lynn.)
Wait Wait Wait? Your saying that our fairly decent overall defense was worse than 2010 and Dimitri “oh god please dont throw it at him” Patterson? Seriously?
re-check the Eagles’ redzone defense.
They SUCKED . . . again.
Its a team game for you to put all that blame solely on the corners and our league leading pass rush is a garbage argument. They had a new coordinator, they had new players on half the defense, the offense struggled with turning the ball over.
So yes the old adage that improved pass rush does help the secondary is true. Look at Houston.
The defense ended the year 30th in RZ defense, with 59.57%. The previous year they were 32nd, but the percentage was 78.26%. That’s an improvement of 20% in one year, despite the rookie coordinator and new staff, short offseason, and rookies/young/new guys.
Also, in 2010, the D was 27% worse than the 16th ranked team in RZ scoring pct. The 2011 Eagles D was about 7% worse than #16. The point of all the numbers is they were historically bad in 2010, and just 5-10% worse than mediocre in 2011. Good enough? Definitely not. But much better than the previous year.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct
As far as the 4th quarter leads, the offense scored a total of 3 points in those 5 games you referenced. And it’s not like the leads the Eagles had were huge. The biggest lead they blew was 10 points with an entire quarter left to play.
Also, from the posts I’ve seen, you watch way too much football not to know it’s common for a defense with a lead to surrender points in the 4th. If the games had been lost in the 4th Q despite the offense putting up at least a touchdown and/or the defense had allowed more than 2 TDs, I’d think you have a case.
One note: of the 5 losses where they blew 4th quarter leads, 3 of the teams made the playoffs (including SB contender NYG). And the Bears probably would have been in if Cutler/Forte hadn’t been hurt after they played the Eagles.
Good points all.
I was 18 y/o. My buddy M’s and I, are driving down the street in West Chester after spending the day at Eagles Training Camp. There was a ton of traffic and we were crawling along. I look along side the car and see Erik McMillan hobbling up the street. I only recognized him, because he had just signed an autograph for me. I offered him a ride and he took it! Haha! Tossed in his duffle bag and climbed into the back seat of my crappy little 1984 Ford Escort Coupe, complete with 2×4 shoved in place to keep the driver seat from falling back. Oh, how the times have changed??? It was great telling that story, everyone of those amazing 6 weeks he gave us that year, before being cut.
That, my friend, is an awesome tale. Kudos.
I also had a crappy Ford Escort in the 80s. After an accident, I had to prop up my driver’s seat with a basketball. Terrible car, but some good days.
With Vick at QB it does not matter what happens on the D side of things..we will never win the big one period
2011 Vick…you’re right.
How are you so sure 2012 Vick will be the same? Think about how much Eli grew this year, as well as some other QBs.
Pessimists are almost always right… There’s only one team that wins the trophy, and then all the haters can say ‘I told you so’. It’s getting very old!
But…but… but…. the only thing that matters is winning the SB… /cry
I’m with ya. I watch pre-season Eagles football, regular season Eagles football and hopefully some playoff Eagles football. It’s be cool to win the SB, but at the end of the day if they don’t I’m not crying in my pudding cup.
I hope he proves me very wrong Tommy..
i am very happy with the way the oline is coming along. as long as we resign mathis. i would be fine if we drafted someone because that would mean mudd wasnt happy with someone on the oline or he is in love with a draft prospect, but i would be really surprised if we drafted an olineman in the first 2 rounds. WR and LB
was erik mccmillan the super short CB?