Eagles & The Supplemental Draft
Posted: July 11th, 2012 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 24 Comments »Or…Who the hell is Josh Gordon and why should I care about him?
The NFL will hold the Supplemental Draft on Thursday. I posted some notes and info on WR Josh Gordon and a couple of other players over at ScoutsNotebook.
Now let’s get to the Eagles side of things. They were one of 21 teams in attendance at the Pro Day. Don’t read into that. The Eagles are among the most thorough organizations in the NFL. Almost every year they have scouts at the Pro Day of the top couple of Supplemental Draft prospects. Fans find this out and assume the Eagles like the guy.
That’s not necessarily the case at all. The Eagles want a scout down there to see the prospect in action. Gordon hasn’t played since 2010. You don’t draft a guy based on tape from 18 months ago. You want to check him out in person and see how he looks now. That means buying a plane ticket and going on the road.
I will be surprised if the Eagles do spend a pick on Gordon. He doesn’t make a lot of sense for us. As Sam pointed out on Twitter (and once again…follow him if you aren’t already), Gordon’s numbers (size and speed) are very similar to those of Marvin McNutt. We’ve already got a rookie project at WR. Why add a second one, who is very similar? Doesn’t make sense.
If Gordon was a natural slot guy, that would be completely different. He’s 6-3, 224 and meant to play outside. He is talented, but I’m sure not comfortable projecting him to be an NFL starter based on one year of solid play at Baylor. No way I’m thinking of this guy as anything other than a role player for the Eagles. He also doesn’t have RS ability, so that limits him to just being a role player WR. Some other team may see him as a starter.
The talk is that Gordon will be taken in the 3rd round. I think that is reaching, if it happens. I just haven’t seen enough to think he’s worth that. Guys with his talent and track record slip to the 6th round in the regular draft. Gordon will go earlier because teams are desperate for help and he’s available, but the 3rd is too early in my mind.
I don’t see the Eagles spending a pick on any of the other players either. The Eagles could be interested in signing them as UDFAs, but I don’t even think that is likely. Larry Lumpkin is a talented, athletic LB, but has character issues. He’s an underachiever. Didn’t exactly dominate at the D2 level so I don’t see him as a player I want to invest time and money into.
There is more than a little speculation out there about the Eagles and Gordon. Maybe I’m wrong and missing some angle, but I don’t see the fit. The other thing you have to remember is that you’re using a 2013 pick on this player. You’d hate to reach for Gordon and then get to next April and find out someone like Brandon Boykin was on the board and you didn’t have a pick because you reached for a WR project last summer.
Gordon is the product of circumstances. There isn’t anything going on in the NFL world so he is the topic du jour. That leads to hype and all kinds of craziness. There was speculation yesterday that he could go in the 2nd round. In-freaking-sane.
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Back to yesterday’s topic about LeSean McCoy for a second…
I did compare him to Barry Sanders. Don’t mistake that for me putting him on that level. I was talking about running style. Barry is one of the greatest RBs of all time. Shady had a breakout year, but would need another 5 years even better than that before he should be considered as even being on the Barry Sanders career track.
No one is putting Shady in the class of elite runners and HOF players. We just use them as a point of comparison for certain situations. You need to have at least one season in the 1600-2000 yard range before you can be seriously mentioned with the all time greats. Look at the list (and do remember the older guys only had 14 games).
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A few of you wondered about Eagles Almanac being available on Kindle and Nook. It is now.
Anyone having issues with the EA, please send me an email: igglesblitz-at-gmail (use @ and add .com when sending the actual message)
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I posted an Around the League column since Gimpy wasn’t able to do MAQB this week. No computers in county lock-up I guess.
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Sheil Kapadia and Tim McManus will be starting a blog for PhillyMag.com very soon. This is terrific news. Tim is a very good reporter. Sheil is at his best analyzing data and writing observational pieces. Excellent fit.
I’ll post a link when it is up and running.
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For the record, my point on McNutt vs. Gordon should not be interpreted to mean that I think the two are similarly talented or anything. My point was merely that Gordon’s elite athleticism hype was overblown. He wound up looking like a guy whose numbers were so unremarkable that they got zero attention pre-draft (McNutt).
Yes, Gordon pulled a hammy, but it was on his 2nd 40 attempt, the 1st one was fine and is listed here. Yes, he didn’t have as much time to workout and prep for this specific set of tests, but on the other hand, private workouts are notoriously favorable to the player when compared to the combine (in almost all categories) and also have the benefit of scout-consensus hand timing (as opposed to the electronic timing at the combine) which also usually benefits the player.
Gordon may well be a great NFL WR. There are probably guys with his dimensions that wound up being just that. But the probability is a lot lower than if he’d tested with more remarkable athletic numbers — especially in the absence of especially helpful game film.
I should have covered that better. Thanks for the expanded comments.
Agree with your conclusion. We heard he was a special athlete. I didn’t see that on tape and it wasn’t there at his Pro Day. Must simply be hype.
You’re perfectly on target, his measurables are similar to McNutt and Cooper, same size, same speed, pretty much the same athleticism, McNutt is more polished, Cooper is as good of a pure athlete, and neither has the character issues that Gordon brings. And they were drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds.
Gordon isn’t an exceptional size/speed combo, he’s not very experienced, he’s not a polished route runner, he seems to have good hands, but work ethic, discipline, etc.?
I’d say 6th round for a team that’s thin at WR.
5th because of time value of the pick… they’re getting a 6th rounder a year early, that means he’s worth a fifth rounder
Uhh the time value of a draft pick is irrelevant in this case. That is only relevant when making a trade with another team. In this case the team is just simply giving up a pick so you scout and slot him as though this were the 2013 pick. You don’t give up a higher pick just because you get the player in camp for 2012. Just my thoughts…..
It’s the same thing, they’re getting the player a full season ahead of the draft choice they’re giving up. To a team that wants him now, there is value to that, similar to a team trading up in the draft using a future year pick.
You are and you aren’t.
By the time the player reports, he’s missed OTAs, and since many supp draft players have had problems in college, Gordon being a good example, he’s well behind the development curve. So is he really ahead of an equivalent player drafted in 2013? And you have to give up a roster spot to carry him in 2012.
“You don’t draft a guy based on tape from 18 months ago”
Unless he is Bryce Brown?
No. Ted Williams went to Kansas and worked him out. It was that workout that got the Eagles to take Brown seriously as a prospect. He showed the size, speed, and movement skills of a good NFL RB.
Maybe it’s cause I don’t understand the Supplemental Draft and what you do or don’t have to do to be eligible for it, but why did no-one do that for this kid then?
The Supp Draft is for kids who didn’t declare for the regular draft, but have some special circumstances arise. NFL has to make you eligible.
Gordon is worth a late round pick. That’s why 21 teams were at his Pro Day. They want to see just how talented he is and decide what pick he’s worth.
Point I was trying to make is that you don’t simply watch game tape from 2010 and take the kid. You must work him out or see him in a Pro Day setting to find out where he is right now, physically and skill-wise. Does he still look like NFL material? Workout review for him was “okay”. Ted Williams loved what he saw of Bryce Brown and that’s why we used the pick on him.
Alright. Thanks, Tommy.
Right. Generally speaking a player who did not declare for the draft becomes ineligible for some reason to resume his college career. The reasons might be academic, or a suspension, or he may have just dropped out. Sometimes testing positive for a banned substance. In one case a guy graduated in the summer but had not previously declared for the draft. (That was Dave Brown, QB, who went to the Giants). The record of supp draft picks has been very underwhelming, even compared to the regular draft.
Brown was a 7th round pick, that’s where you take “flyers,” not the top 100 picks.
It’s a matter of value, Gordon is worth a late round gamble, but not a pick that at worst should be a top backup for four years.
Tommy great read on Gordon over at SNB. I just wonder, are you going to post more draft reviews soon or have you just dropped it for the rest of the team?
Gale Sayers.
McCoy is more like Gale Sayers.
Oh, you youngsters!!!
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T-Law, you’re the best.
Send me an email at igglesblitz-at-gmail.com. Need to ask you about something.
T-Law:
Would have been more fair to say that Josh Gordon was a *victim of circumstance* ?
Like this guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxAk3B_zS5k
RE: McCoy and the Greatest Running Backs
T-Law linked to a list of the greatest single-season rushing leaders. All-time leader is Eric Dickerson’s 1984 output of 2,105 yards.
At Nos. 6 and 17 is OJ Simpson. No. 11 is the Greatest: Jim Brown. And at No. 14 is Walter Payton.
The rushing yards for Brown, Payton, and Simpson were accumulated in 14-game seasons.
Regularizing their numbers to 16 games seasons you get:
OJ Simpson: 2,289 and 2,076 — which would be 2 of the top 5 seasons.
Jim Brown: 2,129 — which would put JB second all-time for one season.
Walter Payton: 2,116 — which, obviously, puts Payton just behind Jim Brown.
Eric Dickerson drops to fourth.
If you include receiving yardage, OJ Simpson’s 1975 season — when he had 1,817 rushing and 426 receiving yards — may be the greatest season for any running back. Adjusting those figures for 16 games would put Simpson ahead of Chris Johnson’s record for Yards from Scrimmage, set in 2009.
Simpson also set an then-NFL record of 23 TDs (16 rushing, 7 receiving — beating Chuck Foreman by 1 TD late in the 4th Q of the last game of the season).
The record-numbers put up by Jim Brown, Simpson, and Payton were obviously accumulated when offenses ran the ball more. By the same token, though, defenses were geared to stop the run more, too.
And Simpson’s 2,003 rushing yards in 1973 may be viewed as the greatest NFL record, certainly among runners, because the Buffalo Bills QB that year was rookie Joe Ferguson from U of Arkansas.
To say that Ferguson, who later became a Pro Bowl QB, struggled in 1973 would be generous. He started all 14 games. Threw for 945 yards — a number Brady and Brees could put up in 2 weeks nowadays — and only 4 TDs.
Every week, defenses playing the 1973 Bills geared up to do one thing: Stop the run. Couldn’t be done.
Here’s a topic of discussion: if we project the rushing yards for Brown, Payton, and Simpson over 16 games, let’s also project those players against today’s NFL defense. Which of those guys could still run for 2k today? Who of the list cannot? Why?, etc. When I watch highlights of old, for example, the holes are huge! That’s where quickness and vision almost seem more important (than straight-line speed) in today’s NFL. Just food for thought. Who on the list could still do it?
Who’s the best player to be taken in the Supplemental Draft? I can’t think of any players off the top of my head who came from the Supplemental Draft and made a difference…
Bernie Kosar. There used to be some good players in the Supp Draft, but I don’t think anyone special has been taken recently.
Ok, so I didn’t read the whole report due to a lack of time… but are there any unbiased summaries of the Freeh report? The small glance that I took of it makes me believe that the talking heads on ESPN lambasting Paterno is not in line with the “findings” portion of the report. There seems to be equal blame placed upon Paterno, Schultz, and Curley with slightly higher levels of blame squared up at Spanier and the board of Trustees.
Thoughts?
Supplemental Draft Lottery Procedural Breakdown:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/11/before-the-supplemental-draft-the-nfl-has-its-own-draft-lottery/