Thoughts On Kelly/Oregon’s Win
Posted: January 4th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 55 Comments »Oregon just beat Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, 35-17. Oregon will finish the season 12-1, with the only loss coming to Stanford in OT. The Ducks will be either #2 or #3 in the final polls. Tonight’s win means that Kelly has won consecutive BCS bowls. Last year Oregon beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon opened the game with a KOR for a TD. They immediately went for 2, got it and led 8-0. Kelly does this all the time. I have no idea if he’d do this in the NFL. I think it has a psychological effect. The Ducks scored again and led 15-0. Even when KSU scored, they were down 15-7. Just felt different than 14-7.
Oregon isn’t the biggest team. Kelly prefers speed. Still, they are not a finesse team. Oregon wore down the KSU defense by running the ball. KSU controlled the run in the 1st half. Kelly sped up the attack and ran more after halftime. Oregon finished with 46 runs for 219 yards. They controlled the game in the 2nd half. There was one drive late in the game with 7 straight run plays. You love to see a team do that and just destroy the will of the opponent. We did that vs Dallas a couple of years ago, but very rarely in the Reid era.
One play that Oregon loves is to have the QB take the shotgun snap, fake a handoff, and then pop up and throw the ball. The Skins were deadly with this play. The Eagles ran it with Foles quite a bit. We had the least success, but of course…we ran the least of the 3 teams. Go figure.
Oregon had a good gameplan on defense. I’m not giving Kelly credit for that, but I’m sure he had some kind of input on the plan.
I thought Kelly did a pretty good job of running things during the game. He did make one mistake. Kelly called for a fake punt in the 1st half when Oregon had 4th/short near midfield. KSU has great STs. They are too smart to get fooled in that situation and in that part of the field. Dumb decision. Moments like that are when you can see Kelly forcing aggressive calls.
Oregon did go for it 4 times on 4th down. The fake punt was the only time I thought they were over-aggressive. They had 5 penalties in the game. There were no turnovers and 2 takeaways. I only recall the QB getting sacked once, but defensive stats aren’t available right now.
I’m sure many of you watched the game.
Thoughts?
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Forgot to add that the game featured something I’ve never seen…a 1-point safety. Oregon had a PAT blocked. KSU player got the ball and tried to circle back into the endzone to get around traffic. He was about to be tackled and lateraled the ball to a teammate, who was then tackled in the endzone. Apparently that results in a 1-point safety in college football.
Who knew such a thing existed?
Chip Kelly can score points in so many ways that it is hard to believe.
_
he interesting, I just want a guy with more NFL experience and a guy that I feel can fully develop a roster. I’m not sure why there is so much hysteria surrounding Chip. He’s a nice college coach, but the pros are a different game IMO.
There are always concerns with college coaches.
Agree on the fake punt call. That seemed way too greedy. I haven’t seen many Oregon games so I don’t know what’s par-for-the-course, but I would imagine there may have been a little bit of “it’s my last game” cowboy action from Kelly…
RE: the 2pt. conversion philosophy, it is interesting when they scored their second TD to go up 14-0, he didn’t go for 2 there… so there’s a mathematical method to the plan. In other words, it isn’t just unbridled, Madden NFL lunacy.
The fast-paced offense is fun to watch, though I would be scared to death to immediately go 3 and out to start a game and effectively waste the opening possession. Seems like if you get a couple of them in a row against a ball-control, time-eating team (think Atlanta) you could find yourself down big quickly. That said, Kelly’s commitment to the run would hopefully mean he wouldn’t jettison the plan and start heaving the ball down the field a la Big Red.
Other thoughts…
– I would think Kelly would be somewhat interested in Vick. We’ve got 32 year old Vick who probably lost a lot of locker-room cred with his post-season comments, and he wouldn’t be a long-term solution, but IF he could commit to the “don’t take a sack” plan, I’m sure Kelly could envision some scenarios with him, McCoy and Brown tiring out defenses. It would at least be entertaining.
– How great would Westbrook have been in a Chip Kelly offense?
– Having the duck mascot do push-ups after scores is confusing, and given the offense, possibly criminal.
– A 1 pt. safety? Is that in effect in the NFL, too? Does Vegas know about this?
– If we hire Chip Kelly, get ready for a vomit-heavy training camp.
– KSU QB Collin Klein looked like he had a weak arm on his end-of-first-half Hail Mary… throw from the 50 barely reached the 10. There was a halfback option where RB Pease threw a much more impressive ball.
– Someone mentioned in the previous comments that Kaepernick would’ve been an ideal Chip Kelly QB… great observation. I was selfishly hoping he would fall to our 2nd in the 2011 draft but that was not to be. But hey… we got Jaiquawn Jarrett! (talk about vomit-heavy)
That last comment makes me want to vomit.
I think Westy/Buck would have been a very good 1-2 punch at RB for Kelly. Both guys could run inside and outside. Both guys could catch. Both could block.
3 & outs are a concern in the up-tempo attack. Kelly would have to see about adjusting that for the NFL.
Hopefully the adjustment wouldn’t be 4-and-outs…
I think AR was the last guy to have confidence in Vick. I would think that most coaches see him as a backup who will never get rid of his bad habits (holding on to the ball too long, bad reads, etc…). He had his chance last year with a good OL and talented weapons. Kelly would get Darrin Thomas or Tebow (wouldn’t that be interesting?) before he kept Vick.
If the Eagles really want him I think they can get him. Between the organizations of Cleveland, Buffalo, and Philly I think Philly has the best. If another team jumps in thats another story. Tommy, I hear a lot of Bills fans saying C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are the best RB corp for Chip Kelly. Are they really better than the RB corp that Philly has?
I think Spiller/FJax would be a better initial fit. Both guys are very good receivers. Spiller has explosive speed. Fred is a downhill runner that could thrive on inside runs. Good inside-outside combo.
Shady and Bryce are a more deadly duo, assuming Bryce continues to develop. Would be interesting to see if Kelly got on Shady about looking for the big play too much. There are times when he loses yards instead of just getting upfield for 2 or 3. Not sure Kelly would like that happening on a consistent basis.
Aren’t we at the point where we have to cut Fred Jackson open and count the rings to determine his age? Actually, I think there are going to cut him open because he sprained his MCL.
Also, McCoy > C.J. Spiller
From what I’ve seen from the NFL insiders on Twitter, it seems like it’s only a two-horse race between the Browns and Eagles.
“So, for us, the only thing we talk about from a statistical standpoint is what is our response after a turnover. Are we capitalizing when our defense creates a turnover, and if we happen to turn it over, does our defense go on the field and stop the opponent from doing something with it. That’s what we talk about and I think that’s the one that has the biggest impact on games.” – Chip Kelly
I think this speaks volumes when assessing decisions like going for it on 4th or faking a punt. Obviously, if they make it – it was the right call. But if they don’t, it was still the right call if the Defense prevents the opposition from doing something with it or if the opposing teams simply fails to do something with it.
So looking back at the “bad decision” to go for it on 4th and 4 (ahead 15 -10) with a fake punt at the 50; it really wasn’t a bad call. While the play didn’t work, Kansas St failed to score any points as a result. And even if they had made a field goal, Oregon still would have led by a score.
Similarly, after Kansas St “turned the ball over” when they missed the field goal. Chip Kelly’s team marched down the field and scored a TD within 1 minute (22-10) closing out the half.
In the 3rd qtr, Kansas St was forced to punt on their first two possessions while Oregon scored after each of those punts (32-10).
I think it was a bad call. Had they just gone for it on 4th down…that’s different. My argument is about trying to trick KSU on STs. They’re great. You’re not going to fool them with a fake punt near midfield on 4th/short.
I suggest this read to you Tom: http://fishduck.com/2013/01/what-every-nfl-fan-should-know-about-chip-kelly/
A really in depth analysis of the spread offense. Interesting read.
I’ve checked out a lot of that stuff. Great site.
Kelly’s offense won’t work in the pros, notice the two teams that gave him fits, Stanford and K-State before they wore down, did it by physical play on the LOS. In the NFL, almost every team can play you physically, and will be much faster. He may find some 4.4 tailbacks but they’ll be trying to beat LBs running 4.6, not 4.8. And those small RBs can’t carry 20 times a game, we’ve seen numerous fast, big play NFL RBs break down quickly – and you only dress 45 and carry 53 in the NFL. So don’t hire the scheme, hire the schemer. He’ll have to make adjustments. His ability to make those adjustments will determine his success.
The run option will disappear in two years, it’s one thing to do it in college, or with fresh rookie legs like RGIII and Wilson, but other than Newton, these guys won’t last once DCs prepare for it in the offseason and defensive players react faster and start getting big hits on QBs. You can’t expose your QB to an extra 30 hits a year and expect him to live. In the pros, the value of QB mobility is to scramble away from hits (too bad Vick never learned that), not into them.
K-State just isn’t that athletic, they have some good players, but Synder does a great job maxing what they have, but watching Klein try and play QB was painful. And they really had one WR, who was almost a hybrid WR/TE in Harper. They played hard on defense, but when the offense started going 3 and out, it was all over.
Kelly had a Freshman QB that struggled some in those 2 games. In the NFL he will live or die with the QB he has. If he has someone that can throw the ball effectively on a consistent basis, his offense will do just fine.
If you have a NFL QB who can throw the ball effectively on a consistent basis, you have Brady, Ryan, Peyton, etc., and any offense works!
Question is whether he can make it work in the NFL with an average QB. Say Nick Foles?
K-State defense giving Oregon “fits” is a bit of an overstatement. They had a good quarter and a half, and then they wore down (as you said). I’d say that’s Kelly’s scheme being pretty successful.
This is the first Oregon game I really watched and I was surprised, I was expecting a much faster no huddle attack based on what I had read about Oregon.
My focus has switched from the new head coach to how we can acquire Jadeveon Clowney in the 2014 draft.
http://www.chatsports.com/michigan-wolverines/a/Vincent-Smiths-head-explodes-after-hit-10-2-3395#
Clowney will go #1 overall.
Is Clowney the best DE prospect ever?
Probably. I can’t ever recall a DE prospect straight killing a guy in a Bowl game before. So he has that going for him.
…which is nice. 😉
Well, I remember a few years back when Michael Johnson was the can’t miss #1 DE for the following season and when that next season came he wasn’t even gone in the first round.
A little premature.
See how he fills out (at his age, he might add 20 lbs and become more of a 3-4 DE or just get stronger with the same frame), see if he stays injury free (Aldon Smith had a sophomore year that was just as good, then got dinged as a junior), see if teams plan for him.
Lewan pretty much controlled him, his biggest play came on a reach block by the TE (stupid play call). Now Lewan is a good LT, but great players don’t get stopped in big games by anyone.
Re: Chip Kelly and Browns vs. Eagles
Why would a Duck want to be a Brown? Every Duck secretly longs to be an Eagle.
Well played, Sir.
On the 1-point safety. If Oregon had recovered a fumble after the blocked kick in the end zone, would it have been a 2-point conversion, a 1-point conversion, or total confusion?
I’ve never heard of a 1-point safety either… and speaking of
never-have-seen-befores (although this is basically off-topic), I swear
the Lions kicked off to the Eagles from the EAGLES 45-yard line earlier
this year (there were flags thrown against Philly during Detroits extra
pt attempt preceding the kick-off). I can’t ever remember a team
kicking off from the opponents side of the field, but maybe this was the
first time I ever paid enough attention…
I remember that. I also remember being dumbfounded that Schwartz didn’t kick it onsides there. You’re basically risking 15 yards of field position for a chance at getting the ball back (and deep in your opponent’s territory, no less). Brian Burke might have had a heart attack if he was watching that.
A few points on Kelly:
1) I think all this will be moot because he’ll end up in Cleveland. Haslam and Banner are hiring a coach before GM for a reason. Kelly wants alot of control over the roster and the Cleveland duo is prepared to give it to them by gesturing the fact that they will hire a GM after they hire Kelly. Secondly, they will offer up a sick sum of money. Lurie & Roseman won’t match those two selling points.
2) The zone read/high tempo combo won’t work as a base offense in the NFL for the same reason it Oregon loses to the best defenses in the college. Teams that have the speed, size, and strength and match the tempo and out muscle Oregon. The reason Oregon can run such a high temp offense is because the base of their offense lies on a few key plays that they run extremely well, and then mix in a few quick read passes off of the Inside and Outside zone run reads. They can keep the same personnel grouping in almost all the time and run their handful of bread-and-butter plays. They are faster and more athletic than most of the teams they face, and that wins in college. In the pros that isn’t the case. You can’t run that high tempo offense all game because you can’t keep the same personnel grouping in and run enough plays to keep an NFL defense off balance. Its why the hurry up offense works best in the NFL with the best quarterbacks, and not pure running teams.
3) I think elements of the offense will stick around, but RG3, Kap, and the like will be running less of it as the years go on for two reasons: 1) injury risk. You already see it with RG3. Think the Shannahan’s are going to want to keep that up for the rest of his career? 2) Defenses will start to catch-up. Jeff Fisher has already stated that project #1 this off-season is review all game tape of the zone-read. Pieces of it will be utilized but it won’t be a base. I’ll be interested to see how Kelly incorporates it up there in Cleveland 🙂
I’m not sure I buy the argument about personnel control in Cleveland. The most recent reports state that he’s not looking for complete control. So it’s pretty much a wash as far as what “reports” say.
I just don’t see how he doesn’t have the control he needs in Philly. Howie’s job is to get the players the coaches want. I can’t imagine a situation where Howie just says, “here, Chip. Take this guy. I know you don’t want or need him but I’M the one with the power! Suck on it!”. If Chip and Howie can get on the same page, Chip will have all the control he needs.
I never said he wanted complete control, simply alot of it. I don’t think he’s in position having never stepped foot inside an NFL franchise to demand complete control.
Lurie is sticking with Howie because that’s his boy and he clearly doesn’t think the missed opportunities of 2010 and 2011 are at all Howie’s fault. I think Lurie saw what giving the HC alot of control can do as the years went by with Reid. They recently reeled that in, even going so far as keeping the scouting and coaching staff’s opinions separate.
You can bet your bottom dollar Banner and Haslam are going to give Kelly whatever he wants, where Lurie and Howie aren’t. I’m not saying one approach is better than the other, just that Kelly will have more options in Cleveland than Philly. That’s partly of why I think he’ll end up there.
If Banner and Haslan are willing to give Kelly an inordinate amount of power to get him, they can have him. He’s a good candidate but it’s not like there aren’t other guys around who’d perfectly fine hires as well.
The 1 point safety was the craziest point after touchdown I have ever seen, even if it wasn’t technically a point after touchdown which intensifies the craziness of it. Wow.
I thought CK forced the fake punt there as well. Still not 100% sold on him. Kind of want McCoy (with a highly player-respected DC) more right now. Can’t even say why, other than gut feeling.
Anyone else think that Trotter is a jackass? Apparently he has it in his head that the success the Eagles head in the last decade were in spite of Reid and McNabb. It seems as though he says whatever he can to appease the people who listen to his radio show.
I read some of that. Somebody made an article that honed in on all the bad stuff Trott said. At the end of it all he graded Reid an 8/10, which simply doesn’t sync up with the volume and percentage of negative opinions that Trott shared. I can only assume Trott had a lot of positive feelings/opinions about Reid that were left out of highlight/ left unsaid.
they were left out of the highlight. he was just on espn saying that no one mentions the 10 minutes of positive statements that he said before his negative statements
Yeah, something definitely smelled fishy with this one. I get that Trott’s comments raise an eyebrow and will get the attention of readers. I also get that these comments are extra harsh and juicy when taken out of context. But they need to at least spend 5 minutes at the end to write a paragraph highlighting that overall Trott had a positive experience with, and opinion of, Reid.
Big Red hired by Kansas City. Pioli is fired.
Re: The 1-Pt Safety
(I didn’t see the game last night, and maybe this was explained.)
In college football — but not in the NFL — the extra point is a live play in terms of the defense having a chance to score off a turnover. So a PAT-kick is like a FG and a PAT-run/pass is like any run/pass from scrimmage.
But the defense cannot score more points than the offensive team was trying to score on the extra-point attempt.
So, in college, if a team tries a 2-pt conversion via the pass, and a defender intercepts the pass and returns it to the opposite EZ, the defense scores 2 pts.
On a kick, if the defense blocks it and runs it back, it’s a 1-pointer.
And last night we saw the 1-pt safety . . . because the defense took possession of a live ball on a 1-pt play but then was tackled in the EZ.
This rule worked out for me. Some years ago, Penn State was playing BYU in the Holiday Bowl. BYU scored late…and went for two. When State returned the attempt for two points their way, they covered the spread .
🙂
Re: BOB / Sleepers / Andy Reid
T-Law:
Bill O’Brien’s off the market.
Let’s say Kelly takes Haslem’s money without shopping.
Who’s you’re “next man up” as the best guy for the Eagles?
McCoy from Denver?
Doug Marrone of Syracuse?
A sleeper choice?
By the way . . . who is the *Sleeper* choice — if you had to put a name out there — for the Eagles job? And what I mean is, someone whose name hasn’t been linked to the Birds.
________________
Reid’s on board in KC now.
More than anything, I want to know who the heck his D-Coordinator’s going to be?
Then I want to know why he didn’t bring that person to Philadelphia 2 years ago.
Next question . . . is Reid going to draft Geno Smith? Seems like he should, while giving Dwayne Bowe whatever it takes to keep him in KC.
Whomever Reid drafts, if he can get Bowe to stay, the Chiefs will have a pair of big, fast receivers . . . exactly the opposite of what Reid had here the past 4 years. (Bowe & Baldwin)
I would think Geno to KC is an almost certainty now. I’ve been saying for months he seems like a McNabb, Jr. Although, Geno does not run around as much as people think he does.
I doubt Bowe is worth what he thinks he’s worth.
Maybe Joeckel wows at the combine and Reid would want him?
Yeah, Bowe’s a tough call. But he may have more value to AR to keep around, so you give him what he wants.
Look at the Chiefs’ offense — other than QB:
HB – Jamaal Charles
TE – Tony Moeaki (Eagles took DTeoN a few picks earlier)
WRs – Bowe & Baldwin
If the Chiefs get a QB, the offense has some skill to take advantage of.
I think Andy’s gotten himself into a really good situation. There’s a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. If he works his so called, “QB magic”, he could turn KC around pretty quickly.
True enough.
But give him 4-5 years. When the current well of talent runs dry.
The problem is, giving Andy a player like Jamaal Charles is like giving a Lamborghini to a guy who only knows how to drive an automatic Corolla. His abilities are going to be partially squandered in AR’s offense.
Dexter McCluster is a Reid wet dream. I know we had interest in him before the Chiefs picked him up. I can see him becoming a hot commodity in fantasy with Reid there. Fantasy football, I mean. Just to be clear.
Smith runs a 4.9 40. That’s not just “not running around as much as people think”, it’s relatively immobile (for comparison’s sake Andrew Luck ran a 4.59). He’s also a pretty accurate, technically sound passer. The only point of comparison I can see with McNabb is that they’re both black.
rumor has it that andy is trying to bring dick jauron on as DC and pat shurmur as OC.
The Jauron rumor, if even close to being based on fact, absolutely outrages me.
Reid let the guy walk two years ago.
Maybe Jauron knew that Washburn’s scheme — and Washburn — weren’t exactly the way to win SBs in Philadelphia.
It seems like every DC they interviewed thought that about Washburn
its not set in stone as of yet. i think i read that over at BGN
Re: Reid’s DC choice
Pure speculation, but hot rumor is that Reid is looking to bring John Dorsey over from Green Bay to be new KC GM, if so maybe Winston Moss (LB coach/AHC) is targeted as DC. I believe Moss was interested in the Eagles DC position before Reid elevated Castillo