So You’re Saying There’s A Chance…

Posted: February 20th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 102 Comments »

I’m sure 90 percent of you get the reference in the headline.  It comes from the classic comedy Dumb and Dumber.  In this case, it works as a fancy double entendre for the upcoming NFL Draft.

There is a sure chance…Chance Warmack.

There is a possible chance…the Eagles drafting Chance Warmack with pick #4.

See how smart and creative I am?

For I wrote about the Eagles options with pick #4.  I included Warmack as a possible target.  This is a 180 from my thinking just 10 days ago.  Chip Kelly is to blame.

People have asked me about Warmack for a couple of months.  I’ve always shot down the notion.  You just don’t take a Guard with the #4 pick.  You don’t do it.  It doesn’t happen.  I know what I know from years of watching football, reading about football, and studying the game of football.  Guards simply don’t go in the Top 10.  Case closed.

And then that jerk Chip Kelly went and messed with my brain.  He was asked about the position of Sports Science Coordinator at the most recent PC and responded with this:

“Yeah, the game of football has evolved. I think we as coaches have to evolve with it. And to always harken back to, well, we did it because that’s the way it’s always been done, I just never bought into that theory in my mind.

I want to know why we do things and everything we do. Whether it’s the athletic training room, the strength and conditioning room, to anything that touches this football team. And the only answer I won’t accept is because we’ve always done it that way.

If you look back 50 years ago, people trained in football, and they weren’t allowed to have water during the game. There was a bucket on the sideline, and you had a ladle and you scooped it out and had a sip, but if you drank water, you were soft. Obviously, we’ve evolved from a science standpoint.”

While Kelly wasn’t specifically addressing the draft or roster building with these comments, I think it is important to understand his mentality.  Howie Roseman will have to explain why a Guard can’t be taken 4th overall.  Don’t talk about unwritten rules.  Don’t talk about tradition.  Explain why in a logical sense.  If Howie can do that, I’m sure Chip will agree.

I don’t want the Eagles to take Warmack with pick #4.  I don’t think Chip Kelly necessarily does either.  The point is that we are in a new era.  We have to adjust our thinking to Chip’s thinking.  Why does something have to happen?  Why can something not happen?

There is a good chance Warmack will be one of the top 4 players on a lot of draft boards.  He will be the top rated player by a few teams (if not more).  Maybe the NFL is right to pass on Guards until after the 10th pick.  Maybe that’s outdated thinking that has led to some bad picks.  You would need to do a lot of research to statistically back-up your argument.  In place of that, I’ll just offer a couple of quick thoughts that advocate for a player like Warmack.

The NFL passing game has evolved over time.  Teams have become more and more efficient.  Completing 60 percent of your throws is no longer a big deal.  Short, safe throws are a regular part of all 32 passing attacks.  Many teams with elite pass rushers have seen offenses neutralize them with the quick passing game and chip blocks.

Defenses have responded with 2 ideas.  The first is overload blitzes.  The solution to this is the QB reading it pre-snap and getting the ball out appropriately.  The next adjustment is focusing on pressure up the middle.  JJ Watt played DE in the base unit for the Texans, but slid in to DT in passing situations.  He was disruptive from both spots.  The Packers defense hasn’t been the same since Cullen Jenkins left.  His pressure up the middle hasn’t been replaced.

Justin Smith is a DE for the Niners that slides inside on passing downs.  When he got hurt this year, Aldon Smith had 19.5 sacks.  In the 6 games after that, Aldon had no sacks.  Justin only missed 2 1/2 games, but wasn’t the same disruptive force.  SF’s defense had not given up more than 26 points in a game with Justin healthy.  They gave up 27 or more 4 times after the injury.

Pressure up the middle is crucial.  It bothers Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers…all of them.  There is no pocket to move up in.  The pocket collapses.

How do you stop this? By getting the best possible Guards that you can.  Find guys that can anchor when facing a bull rush.  Find guys that have good feet so they can slow down the quick, athletic types.  Find guys that use their hands well and can ride a rusher wide of the QB if beaten off the ball.

Chance Warmack can do all of that.  And he does it well.

That’s the best argument I can make for Warmack from a general perspective.  You add in that he is an outstanding run blocker that could help in short yardage and Red Zone situations.  Run blocking OGs can be found anywhere, but combining that with the pass protection skills, size, and athleticism is what makes him special.

Here are a couple of videos of Warmack in action.  What are we looking for?

Watch his feet.  He’s nimble for a big, thick guy.  Watch his hands.  He’s able to use them as weapons (when attacking defenders) or shields (when pass protecting). Watch his balance and agility. You don’t see Warmack on the ground much.  Hitting the ground is a no-no for OL. Can’t block anyone from that spot.  He can pull and block in space.  Look how naturally strong and powerful he is.  Warmack doesn’t have to be in perfect position to make a block.  His calf muscles are the size of Chad Hall.  Really thick, natural build.


One more time…

I’m not saying I want the Eagles to take Warmack.  I’m not saying Chip Kelly does either.  I do think we have to be careful about the way we think.  Chip is going to do some things outside the box.  It will help us to understand them if we adjust our thinking beforehand.

* * * * *

Jimmy Bama did a good post on the Eagles needing to use Dion Lewis more in 2013.  I think we all want to see the coaches use multiple backs on a more regular basis than what Marty did.


102 Comments on “So You’re Saying There’s A Chance…”

  1. 1 micksick said at 3:01 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Id like to see us draft warmack. Even at #4. If he really is the best G prospect to come out in a long time, then lets do it. The pass protection stuff is awsome, but if his run blocking would help kelly field a dominate run game, then im all for it.

    and the line, “His calf muscles are the size of Chad Hall” was great hahaha

  2. 2 Mac said at 3:10 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    So you’re telling me Warmack is like Andrews but with a brain instead of a pile of rocks inside his skull… That is tempting, especially considering the evolution of the game (pass rushing DTs) and our pool of RBs.

  3. 3 Kevin_aka_RC said at 3:13 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I may cry if we draft Warmack at #4 over Star, Jordan, Joeckel, etc.
    We found Mathis off the street and Kelce in RD6. You can find interior linemen anywhere in the draft. Our biggest bust is a 1st round G. We’ve had success turning Nick Cole into a competent player.

    I’m all for “creative” thinking, but picking a G high is poor resource allocation.

  4. 4 ian_no_2 said at 4:21 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Danny Watkins was overdrafted by what a vast majority of draft columnists expected. His selection was a result of Reid’s “never draft an OG, draft an OT and convert them” mentality. This should be evaluated on the basis of what the league’s track record is and not recent Eagles history. Or we can just relax and let Nick Cole hold down RG.

  5. 5 xeynon said at 10:17 AM on February 22nd, 2013:

    Just a nitpick, but this isn’t true. Watkins was projected as a late first round pick leading up to that draft and that’s exactly where he went. He hasn’t performed up to that standard, but he wasn’t overdrafted in the sense that he went before he was expected to.

  6. 6 Ark87 said at 4:29 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    This was true in the past and may continue to be true. But if the position becomes more important ( or is viewed as being more important throughout the nfl) the guards won’t get better, they will just be drafted higher. In other words, those late round interior line gems will become mid round interior line gems in 2013. 2013’s Late round interior linemen would have been undrafted in previous years and so on. If this does happen, the benefit is it pushes some other position depth down the board. Dunno if this will happen, not sure if any personnel guys are certain either, wouldn’t surprise me to see a run on interior linemen on day 1 of the draft.

  7. 7 Chiptomylou said at 11:46 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I’d probably cry too if they drafted Warmack over Joeckel, but that probably be the only player. I would hope they’d try to trade down and pick an additional 2nd or 3rd and then maybe nab Warmack between picks 5 thru 10.

  8. 8 the guy said at 3:15 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Even assuming you’re facing a team whose best pass rusher is an interior guy (DT or 3-4 DE), why would that team line the guy up against your “difference-making” guard?

    The age of the OL is a concern, and I wouldn’t mind getting an OT early, but a guard at #4? Even a great one? No thanks.

    BTW: You talked about this draft’s lack of elite players in an earlier post. If Chance is the only elite player in this draft, I can understand the reasoning. Is he?

  9. 9 TommyLawlor said at 4:01 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I don’t see him as elite. Very good, but not elite.

  10. 10 Anders said at 4:06 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Isnt he an elite guard prospect? I admit I might be biased and I know he was drafted to play OT, but to good to keep off the field, but when healthy, I have never seen a guard like Shawn Andrews (when watching him and now Peters in space, people 340+ lbs should not move so well in space). So do you think Warmack projects as a better guard than him?

  11. 11 D-von said at 3:20 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Logic wise? I guess I go with the thinking that you should draft elite talent with top picks at these particular positions: QB, OT, DE, DT, CB. Why? Because this is a passing league. The other postions are important but limitations can be masked within a scheme. Chance Warmack is probably the best prospect in the draft but are we willing to give up an asset on a G. While we can mask the weakness of our interior line we become severly disadvantaged with weak Tackles. Elite pass rushers would have a feast on the QB if the Tackles are bad. This is not easily masked by a scheme.
    I know alot of people wanted T’eo before his scandal and could never understand why. Yes a good LB is good, but its only as good as the Dline allows him to be. I don’t care how good you MLB is but he will be destroyed by Olinemen blocking him. Dline makes the LB corp. And then the pass rushers. Probably the most important position on the defense. If you can’t get to the QB you lose. Plain and simple.
    Don’t get me wrong you can draft any position outisde of the 5 I’ve mentioned but in my opinion these are positons you want elite talent in.

  12. 12 Kirk Belmont said at 3:21 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    What about WRs? aren’t they part of the passing game?

  13. 13 ICDogg said at 3:22 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    If the guy makes big gaps open up we could run all day long for all I care.

  14. 14 Matt Hoover said at 2:52 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    something chip kelly wants to do

  15. 15 ICDogg said at 3:20 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    If you’re creative enough, you usually can find the most talented guys and figure out how to make them work together.

  16. 16 Kirk Belmont said at 3:20 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Whatever happens, Wherever Chance Warmack ends up, I hope that team can at least get him a jersey that fits

  17. 17 TommyLawlor said at 4:02 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    The man is sexy and showing off his belly. How dare you criticize that!!!

  18. 18 PeterAkkies said at 3:21 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    At least the Eagles should have a good understanding of Warmack’s play, with Jeff Stoutland having coached him directly last year.

  19. 19 Ark87 said at 9:33 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    It’s also less likely he would be a bust. If stoutland gets to teach his system, Warmack should be able to pick up where he left off and continue to develop positively.

  20. 20 Sean said at 3:23 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Eagles Rewind did a few posts about optimal positional breakdown of drafting strategy. Here are his final posts after breaking down each round:

    The way that I see it, if Chip, Roseman, et al think we can pick up a multi-year starter and potential Pro Bowler, lets go for it.

  21. 21 lonfident said at 3:31 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I was reading somewhere about this (maybe here). The gist of it was never take an OG from a really good OL (as a high pick), because they usually never have to take on double teams and generally don’t have to work as hard as most O lineman. I’m not sure if this is true but it sounds logical.

  22. 22 shah8 said at 3:34 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Guys? This newfangled OG being important is a direct consequence of the way defense is being played now. It seems like there is much more of an effort to penetrate the interior of the OL than there used to be, such that OGs have to handle more talent than usual by himself more often.

    As for Philly. It’s just that we pretty much *have* to have a functional ROG with that light center we’ve got. Main reason is to force the danged safeties up. Morningwheg’s system can work, same as the Sean Payton system, but they’re both getting throttled by constant two deeps and adjustments for specific WR talent. One has to run the ball, and run the ball, well, such that the DC fears it, in order to open up the easier pass plays. Of course, this means fewer passes! Chance Warmack will make that possible.

    The main reason why OG is worse than OT is that you could convert a bust at OT to an OG, but if the OG busts…

  23. 23 ATLeagle said at 3:53 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Some of the thinking last year with Watkins however was that he got confused with the multiple defenders that he MAY have to deal with. It was stated that he could have a chance at OT when he would know who he was supposed to block, and what their likely path would be. I am thinking that with the confusion that interior D is trying to create with stunts and overloads and fake overloads, that a guard is starting to need the brains of a center to figure out where to be. This may end up leaving the few with agility, size, and acumen at the top of the boards, and then letting the rest fall to their traditional slots.

  24. 24 ian_no_2 said at 3:38 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    The Eagles have Peters, Herremans, and Kelly at OT. They should prepare for the possibility that everyone who was injured last year may get hurt again, and should be looking at OT. The Eagles are best advised to give Watkins at least competition at RG, and I would prefer to bring in a starter and let Watkins prove himself as an injury replacement.

    Warmack has the potential to be a perrenial all-pro and make all the other guys on the line better. If you plug him in with Peters, Mathis, Kelce, and Herremans you’ve got a heckuva line if no one gets hurt. The Eagles are in a position, because they have Herremans and Kelly before the draft starts, to make an evaluation as to whether Warmack or Joeckel will have better careers and who will be the better player. Warmack is definitely one of the top OGs to come along in the draft in the last 20 years and is not an ordinary top OG prospect.

    I had to fight off four guys on this question a month ago…

  25. 25 Anders said at 4:57 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    There is some good options in FA to fill either the RG or the RT spot, if we do that, we have the freedom to take an OT or OG alittle later and aint forced to spend a pick on OL, but can maybe upgrade a bigger need like SAM or CB

  26. 26 ian_no_2 said at 5:01 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    It’s ideal to have options at every position. This is not considered a great CB draft 1 through 10. There is depth at OLB rather than one guy standing out at 4.

  27. 27 Anders said at 5:06 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I think it depends on what you want from your SAM. If you want a cover guy, there is also a good pass rusher, you almost only have Mingo and Jordan.

  28. 28 ian_no_2 said at 5:42 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Mingo and Jordan are raw athletes. Maycock is calling Mingo “developmental” and says he is being overvalued in mocks. Arthur Brown may be on the board at 36. Alec Ogletree may fall to 36 due to his DUI, at which time you’d have to decide whether he could overcome his substance problems, but he played safety and would have top SAM potential.

  29. 29 ian_no_2 said at 7:57 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    still think 36 is the ideal place to address NT tho..

  30. 30 Arby1 said at 10:16 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I agree it’s ideal because there should be more choices in the 2nd and possibly 1 good choice in the 3rd.

  31. 31 Anders said at 8:33 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Also 36 is way to early to address NT. Unless you draft Vince Wilfork, your NT does not play more than around 40% of the over all plays on D, put that value against a potential starting CB or safety and you get less value for your picks.

  32. 32 ian_no_2 said at 8:52 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I’m just noting there’s a lot of quality guys that will be on the board then at NT. Somehow the Patriots, Packers, and Steelers have stumbled along after ‘wasting’ 1st round picks on Wilfork, Raji, and Hampton, and the Ravens’ organization is recovering from wasting a 2nd on Cody.

  33. 33 Anders said at 8:56 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Raji no longer plays NT, Ravens NT Cody got benched for Kemaouto and the Steelers play a type of D different from most other 3-4’s (They use the old school type with 3 space eat’ers up front and then the LB’s makes the play, where most other play a version of the Bum Phillips 1 gap or with the Ravens a hybrid 3-4 under front)

  34. 34 ian_no_2 said at 11:05 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    My original point, Anders, was that with the Eagles’ hole at NT, it would be hard to pass up Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams if they’re on the board at 36. Both those guys can move around the line in different formations. If you’re choosing between Johnathan Jenkins and a good CB maybe the CB would be better.

  35. 35 Anders said at 11:50 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    at 35 (our draft pick in the 2nd) there should both be some very good safety and CB prospects.
    I dont think the hole at NT is as big as people make it out to be and there is also quite alot of NT’s in this years FA

  36. 36 ian_no_2 said at 12:26 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    If Trufant or Banks falls at CB that’d be worth looking into, but I’m not seeing all these great FA NT’s. Who do you suggest getting?

  37. 37 ian_no_2 said at 12:35 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    it’s a deep year for FA safeties, CBs there’s a couple guys.

  38. 38 Anders said at 1:14 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    we still need a few CBs and atleast 2 safeties

  39. 39 Anders said at 12:55 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    Cheap options could be Terrance Knighton, could also get a Randy starks or Shaun Cody.

  40. 40 ian_no_2 said at 1:18 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    Terrence Knighton was benched by the Jags last year, Starks is small and has been convicted of domestic violence and driving into police cars, Cody isn’t considered that good.

  41. 41 Anders said at 4:08 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    The first one about NT show how little impact NT’s has now a days unless the player is truly special

  42. 42 deg0ey said at 5:59 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I agree with Mayock about Mingo, but Jordan doesn’t fall into that category at all. Mingo had only started 5 games before the 2012 season rolled around. Dion Jordan is a guy that has shown technique to go with his athleticism.

    The other guys you name have massive question marks too. Ogletree is an ILB and doesn’t really project to 3-4 OLB. Arthur Brown is only an inch taller than Kendricks and gives up about 10lbs. Given the reports a while back that CK likes his tall guys, I can’t see him wanting an undersized guy like Brown.

  43. 43 ian_no_2 said at 8:12 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Google “dion jordan raw” and there’s well over 100 citations of him being called raw.

  44. 44 Anders said at 8:31 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    He is a raw pass rusher, but he isnt raw in pass pro. He is the opposite of most projected SAM lb.

  45. 45 D3Keith said at 6:40 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I agree with two of the major premises here — that you can’t count on the injured guys, and that Warmack could be the line better, and by extension make the entire offense better. Given that we might actually commit to the run and our best offfensive player is a running back, you can’t go wrong adding a top-notch OL and making the line a major strength.

    That said, I don’t really see many people today making this logical argument — that Warmack could be a target and/or a fallback option if we find a taker for No. 4 and move back a little bit to add picks.

  46. 46 Phils Goodman said at 3:40 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    There are better arguments against a guard pick at #4 than “because that’s not how it’s done.” The easiest one is because it’s not necessary. With guards not being valued as highly, the competition for them is not as intense. If you think of the draft as a kind of auction, selecting a guard at #4 is like bidding against yourself in free agency in order to overpay. If the Eagles are dead-set on getting an impact guard, they can get Jonathan Cooper for a lot less — a late 1st or early 2nd.

  47. 47 TommyLawlor said at 4:04 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    There is speculation that Cooper could now go in the Top 10. I don’t buy it, but he is an athletic freak. No way he lasts to 25. I’m not sure he gets to 20 even.

  48. 48 Phils Goodman said at 4:19 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    The way this draft is shaping up, it seems like there are almost 20 players who are being talked about in the top 10 and 50 in the 1st round.

    Uncertainty abounds. Some players are bound to fall.

    Guards seem like as good a candidate as any, especially with four of them getting a lot of 1st round grades (Warmack, Cooper, Warford, Thomas). But it’s hard to envision a run on guards in the 1st round, so that should afford the Eagles some patience.

  49. 49 D3FB said at 8:01 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Personally I like Cooper more than Chance. I grade Cooper out better in pass protection, and his ability to pull, with Chance getting the edge in the nasty run blocking department. I cannot understand the people who are trying to argue that Chance is the best guard to come out in a decade plus when Decastro was a superior player and Cooper grades out just above Chance as well.

  50. 50 Steven DiLeo said at 3:44 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    You have to consider the fact that there aren’t many elite prospects in this draft. It’s not a choice between Jahri Evans and DeMarcus Ware. It’s more like a choice between Jahri Evans and Tommy Kelly

  51. 51 D3Keith said at 8:31 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    That’s the best counter to the poor-resource argument. If you could have a Pouncey that makes a Pro Bowl as an interior OL, or a prospect at OLB that quite possibly could flame out or never develop into the player he could be, then it’s a much easier choice.

  52. 52 Kristopher Cebula said at 3:46 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    lets cut right to it tommy, how good is he at putting out fires?

  53. 53 TommyLawlor said at 4:05 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    He’s an expert on putting out fires, however…his lack of knowledge on the subject of Canadian food is a major red flag.

  54. 54 Kristopher Cebula said at 10:35 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    that’s not a good sign. what is there to know besides canadian bacon, syrup and beer? did i miss anything?

  55. 55 K_Dilkington said at 12:54 AM on February 21st, 2013:


  56. 56 Ark87 said at 9:54 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    And can he skate?

  57. 57 fran35 said at 1:38 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    I have heard that he is not well versed in firefighting….. However, he has had dinner a few times with the Matthews family.

  58. 58 hotcakes33 said at 3:51 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    In the first video, more often than not on passing downs, he’s out in front at the second level. Sometimes, he doesn’t even have anyone to take on as it looks like the ND guys want nothing to do with Chance. He just gets to the second level and crushes a DB. Nasty!

  59. 59 Mike Flick said at 3:56 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    For us to pick him at #4 he has to be special.

    I remember the run that Shawn Andrews had where he was dominant. During the Jeff Garcia run, was first time I was ever excited about a guard. He was taking guys out and crushing LBs.

    If Peters is fully healthy, and another difference maker on the O-line. (Joeckel or Chance) We could really have a dynamic running game. And actually use the run to setup the pass. (Crazy concept, but it just might work)

    For pick #4, I do not want to hear about need. I am looking for the best guy to build around.

  60. 60 austinfan said at 3:57 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    There are two reasons I don’t think Warmack is worth a #4 in most drafts (though this year may be the exception, he’s certainly a very safe pick):

    1) lack of flexibility, too short for OT, and I don’t think he’s every played center, he’d actually be more valuable as a center, because he’s big enough to anchor and nifty enough to block on the second level, elite centers are harder to find than elite OGs

    2) he’s a fine athlete, but he’s not as good as Shawn when he was in shape, watching Bama, Warmack never caught my eye the way Shawn could on the second level, or Peters does at LT. I can imagine Peters doing what Warmack does at OG (even at 90%), but not Warmack doing what Peters does at LT.

  61. 61 Anders said at 4:11 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Shawn Andrews and Jason Peters are freaks. Look at this: he is lined up as the right most TE. Look how fast and athletic he is.

  62. 62 Ark87 said at 4:17 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    He looks about 100 lbs lighter there haha. You look at his screen highlights with us though, it’s crazy that that’s the same frame, he didn’t give up a whole lot to be that big. He’s a total freak

  63. 63 austinfan said at 5:03 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I think I’ve got the solution to our red zone problems!

  64. 64 D3Keith said at 6:20 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    That’s a great highlight.

  65. 65 Jason said at 4:15 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    It would be amazing this draft to move back for an early round 2nd and still draft Warmack and then trade Foles for an early 2nd. Fantasy draft would be to draft Warmack and then address DT, S, and CB in early Second Round.

  66. 66 qwerty uiop said at 10:17 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Foles isn’t going anywhere.

  67. 67 D3Keith said at 5:10 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Self-tacklin’ Maclin > So You’re Saying There’s a Chance.

    Dumb and Dumber is a movie full of quotables though.

    Big Gulps huh? …. alright … Welp, see ya later!

  68. 68 austinfan said at 5:18 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    One way to think about it is how teams value established players, the top OTs get paid more than the top OGs and centers, but the gap has closed considerably the last few years. This started with Steve Hutchinson. Nicks just got $9.5M a year with $31M guaranteed, that’s more than most OTs.

    The one position I think is grossly undervalued is safety. Is Revis in his prime as valuable as Ed Reed, Polamalu or Dawk in their primes? I’d say no for this reason – a shutdown corner takes one player out of the game, but a top safety makes plays all over the field, supports both safeties and the running game. An elite safety can scare QBs more than an elite CB because you have to know where he is on every play, you can use formations and motion to partially negate a CB.

  69. 69 Phils Goodman said at 5:23 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I think safeties have been undervalued because teams see them as failed cornerbacks. It’s a rare case where sliding down the athletic spectrum can actually produce more value.

  70. 70 D3Keith said at 6:16 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I’d agree, but not so much with the Revis comparisons. Shutdown corners are still that.

    But a great free safety — a guy that can cover his deep half, slow down tight ends, and come up and tackle running backs or fill in run support — makes the whole defense function better. Great DTs and MLBs do this too, so maybe it’s the idea of playing from the middle of the field and being able to do so many things, you can have a great impact on a defense.

    Maybe it’s not as necessary in a Tampa 2 or something where you’re guys mostly play deep halves. But almost every great defense has a great safety, a guy who’s strong against the pass, solid in run support and sometimes even blitzes. Those guys can be the ultimate playmakers, not to mention leaders (emotionally, and in managing the secondary’s communication and responsibility).

    Of course, I’m super-biased.

  71. 71 R G said at 5:19 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I watched every game Alabama played this year. Warmack is a freakin stud. Is so so good that you actually notice a guard. I mean who can say they ever notice guards. He is sneaky fast and powerful. He absolutely crushes LBs. I really think he will be an ALL PRO.

    That being said I hope the Eagles do not take him with the 4th pick. As many others have stated, you can find interior lineman later in the draft. Also count me in the minority in thinking Watkins will have a good comeback season.

    I really think the Eagles will take a D-lineman. If Star isn’t available I would love to draft the DT S. Floyd from UF. Reminds me of Sapp a bit. Great motor and seems to always be around the ball. Love when I would see him 20 yards down the field making a tackle. Looks like a great athlete in a big body. I see him testing well at the combine and becoming a hot name leading up to the draft.

    Also based on Tommy’s article, I am really intrigued by Dion Jordan. I wish I would have seen him play this year. You can never have enough pass rushers/playmakers on D.

    On a side note, this is the only site I truly enjoy reading reader’s opinions. Almost all opinions are well thought out and greatly contribute to Tommy’s work. I also really appreciate the fact that everyone is respectful. Nothing worse the internet bullies. Keep up the great work Tommy and readers.

  72. 72 holeplug said at 6:40 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    “I am really intrigued by Dion Jordan. I wish I would have seen him play this year. ”

    Almost all of Oregon’s games from 2012 are on youtube if you wanna see tape of Jordan.

  73. 73 Jeppe Elmelund van Ee said at 5:28 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I for one does not get caught up in position as much as others. I really just want us to load up on the best and nastiest players we can. If that is Warmack, so be it. I would much rather take him, and have an excellent player for the next many years, than reaching for for example a pass rusher, that’s not as high on our board.

    I agree that a guard is me least favorable position to take, including when we drafted Watkins, and I had hoped, that there was a stud OLB, DT or QB. But there doesn’t seem to be.

    I just wanna get away from this draft with great players, and it seems Warmack is just that.

  74. 74 D3Keith said at 6:10 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Whoa, he’s black?

    He’s named Chance and he’s from Alabama. Man I just assumed …

  75. 75 Norman Haupt said at 6:24 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Same boat.

    Between my Eagles, Penguins, and other winter family things I just can’t add college ball to my list.

    Been assuming he was a sidekick villain from Dukes of Hazard.

  76. 76 Michael Winter Cho said at 10:13 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    If he becomes an Eagle, may I propose “Big Daddy Warmacks”? Too obvious?

  77. 77 A_T_G said at 12:58 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    When the replay shows him pancaking a guy, I want to hear the slow, ominous chant of “War-macked, war-macked,” echoing through the stadium.

    Think of how intimidating it would be to know you are facing a hostile crowd that cheers guard play.

  78. 78 Norman Haupt said at 10:59 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I’m sure the national media would twist it to sound like we all like war and little children suffering.

  79. 79 poetx99 said at 6:00 PM on February 23rd, 2013:

    let’s go all out. to celebrate, he should pantomime throwing batteries at small children at Christmas. #eagley

  80. 80 TommyLawlor said at 9:39 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Keith, you just made me actually LOL. Kudos sir.

  81. 81 Norman Haupt said at 6:30 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    The counter argument is even if we don’t agree that he isn’t valuable enough to be the 4th pick due to position, other teams do not due to tradition. Meaning there is a likelihood of getting better value knowing other teams will not pick him at pick 5-whatever. Meaning trading down and grabbing him becomes more likely.

    Thus still not making him a good choice @ 4.

  82. 82 Jack Waggoner said at 2:56 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    I think the skill set needed to succeed at guard is not as diverse as the skill set needed to succeed at tackle. You can make most tackles into guards if you need to; the reverse is not true due to the need for good footwork and reach. The availability of athletes with good guard skills is always going to be higher than the availability of athletes with good tackle skills. So you need to take that into account when stacking the board. Furthermore to take a guard that early would be a sign that the Eagles intend to run a lot more than they have in years.

  83. 83 Al said at 7:08 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    The Saints have certainly invested a lot in the guard position and they have a shorter qb. I wonder if there is some logic to putting more import on the position if your qb is short like MV.

  84. 84 Phils Goodman said at 7:40 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    I don’t know. Vick takes the deepest drops of any QB in the league. Maybe that’s something CK wants to change. But a QB on a one year contract shouldn’t dictate the draft.

  85. 85 Al said at 9:42 PM on February 20th, 2013:


  86. 86 D3Keith said at 8:29 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    interesting thought. Why though?

  87. 87 Al said at 9:47 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Good question. Maybe it’s harder to get a hand up to block a pass when pushing against a big strong guard. Also maybe the DTs honor the run a little more.

  88. 88 A_T_G said at 8:09 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    On the one hand, wow, is he strong. Twice he leveled safeties one handed seemingly without paying them much attention. He moves well and I would love to see him in front of Shady on a screen. On the other hand, there were so many plays where he was irrelevant, it is hard to justify #4.

    On a side note, where is Mingo expected to fall?

  89. 89 TommyLawlor said at 9:46 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Could sneak into the Top 10, could slide down into the 20s. I think he’s being over-criticized by many right now. Great athlete, good player. I could see him being a terrific SAM in our system. #4 is too early.

  90. 90 D3Keith said at 11:28 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Both of these comments are examples of the most backwards phenomenon I think I’ve experienced observing Eagles’ drafts … wishing we’d have a lower pick.

  91. 91 TommyLawlor said at 11:48 PM on February 20th, 2013:

    Our life is so very, very strange, huh?

  92. 92 A_T_G said at 12:54 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Not so strange. I’ve been rooting for a lower pick for about 6 months now…

  93. 93 Jack Waggoner said at 2:49 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    If we could somehow get a #1 for next year, I’m all for moving down

  94. 94 ICDogg said at 1:34 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Interesting article in NFP I just noticed by Jack Betcha about behind-the-scenes stuff at the combine.

  95. 95 Jules said at 4:05 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I won’t say I’m enamored with Chance (in the first video he’s lunging at his blocks and leaning too far forward too much), but I don’t see it mentioned nearly enough that our ideal scenario O-Line without changes is Peters (31), Mathis (31), Kelce (25), Watkins (29), and Herremans (30). Almost no youth there. The entire line will need to be rebuilt within a short time period.

    Personally, I’d rather have a B+/A- tackle at #4 than an A+ guard, because the opportunity cost of the tackle is much higher (more expensive to replace via free agency compared to the guard; guards can be found in later rounds). But, every single spot except maybe center needs a replacement. I’ll take Warmack. Or Joeckel. Or Fisher.

    If you can’t get an impact guy at #4 because there isn’t one in this draft, fix the weaker of your two lines. I think that’s the O-Line.

  96. 96 Jack Waggoner said at 2:47 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    Re Mathis and Watkins, I’m not worried about their ages, since they are “low mileage” relatively speaking. Quality of Watkins, however, is another story. Herremans, I think he’s pretty high mileage. Peters, I am more worried about his injury recovery. I’m a big Kelce fan, I think he will be good for years to come. All of that is a good argument if we’re interested in drafting someone like Fisher.

  97. 97 Skeptic_Eagle said at 7:35 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I know there is a lot of smoke that KC doesn’t love G. Smith, but I think it’s just that–smoke. They have to get a QB, and G. Smith, right now, is a better QB than Nick Foles, Alex Smith, or Matt Flynn. Pair him with Reid & Pederson in KC, and Big Red can get some high quality QB play, I think.

    I think there is a very strong chance that both Fisher and Joeckel are available at #4, provided Jacksonville & Oakland don’t trade their picks. If all T’s are available, which makes more sense? Drafting Warmack, and going into the season with Warmack/Herremans at RG/RT, or drafting Joeckel/Fisher and going into the season with Herremans/Joeckel or Fisher, with the plan to eventually transition the pick into LT–which may happen sooner than later. I’m actually not a big proponent of drafting any OL that high, but I’d take the second scenario, as it gives you a lot more flexibility now (what if Peters just can’t move as well, and needs to be replaced right away?) and a plan for the future.

    Even if Joeckel’s gone, I think I’d still take Fisher over Warmack. We’ve got one of the better guards in the league right now, and it did bupkis because of a number of other factors that need to be addressed.

  98. 98 Mac said at 8:47 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    I am in agreement that moving Herremans to RG is a compelling argument for drafting an OT. In my mind you can make a case for Warmack, but only if he is light-years beyond Joeckel or Fisher. I’m not a fan of seeing Herremans get worn down at OT again this year, and I haven’t read anything that convinces me that Kelly is ready to be more than our swing tackle yet.

  99. 99 Ark87 said at 9:02 AM on February 21st, 2013:

    Totally agree

  100. 100 A_T_G said at 3:27 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    If Peters doesn’t have the mobility he used to, would he be an option at guard?

  101. 101 ACViking said at 4:57 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    Re: QB Pressure — and How Nothing is New in Football


    Your comments about the passing game’s evolution sparked a link to the past (as I do with most things for me).

    You wrote:

    “The NFL passing game has evolved over time. . . . Defenses have responded with 2 ideas . . . overload blitzes . . . and . . . pressure up the middle.”

    Pressure up the middle means only one thing . . . Buddy Ryan.

    You know the story. Ryan’s 46 defense was the product of his time as the NY Jets’ O-line coach under HOF coach Weeb Ewbank (only coach to win an NFL title with 2 different teams).

    Ewbank had been an assistant under the great Paul Brown when QB Otto Graham was tearing up the league.

    Per Ewbank, he and Brown spent hours developing pass-protection schemes to ensure the creation of a “cup” — now, “pocket” — so defenses couldn’t get to Graham.

    With the Jets, the need to protect Joe Namath and his bad knees was even more accute. Highlights of the ’67-’69 Jets — a great offensive team — show Namath taking those 7-step drops and having plenty of space to step up in the pocket for those long passes to Maynard, Sauer, and Lammons. [The Raiders’ Al Davis caught on.]

    So when Buddy gets to the Bears as D-coordinator in ’79, he starts tinkering with the defense to create pressure packages that get RIGHT IN THE QB’s FACE . . . the goal was to deny the QB that pocket so he couldn’t step up.

    Buddy said that if Weeb Ewbank thought that was important, then it must be damned important.

    So here we are, more than a *half-century* since Paul Brown and Weeb Ewbank were trying to figure out how to prevent pressure up the middle from the defense and to create a protective pocket for the QB.

    And you’re talking about how the passing game’s evolved and defenses have reacted.

    It reminds me of what C-Kelly said about his offense at Oregon. There’s nothing he does that wasn’t being done 50 years ago by Frank Leahy or Bud Wilkerson or even Knute Rockne.

    The more the NFL changes, the more it stays the same . . . to coin a cliche.

  102. 102 ACViking said at 5:27 PM on February 21st, 2013:

    Re: Warmack and the Eagles


    I’d like to think the Eagles will have the BEST scouting report on Warmack of any NFL team. Same about Alabama’s Fluker and Jones.

    Because we now have their college O-line coach: Jeff Stoutland.


    What impact, if any, will Stoutland have on Roseman and the scouts’ analysis of Warmack, Fluker and Jones.

    And how — if you’re the scouting folks — do you synthesize what Stoutland knows into your assessment.

    What I’m driving at is, does Stoutland’s assessment disproportionately impact the kids’ ratings . . . as compared to, say, Fisher. Or do Roseman and the Scouts just treat Stoutland’s input the same as any other position coach’s.