The Eagles and the Senior Bowl
Posted: February 22nd, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 62 Comments »Wait, wasn’t the Senior Bowl like 6 years ago? Sure seems that way. It’s been forever since I stared into Jimmy Bama’s cold, soulless eyes, followed Adam Caplan as he pulled an illegal driving maneuver, and had Les Bowen let me know just how sun burnt my bald spot was. Ah, the glorious days in Mobile.
Since returning I’ve gone back to re-watch the NFL Network’s coverage of the practices. I’ve watched the game a couple of times. I had to mix this in with writing about Bill Davis, Dave Fipp, and the gang. That delayed my final Senior Bowl post until now, but it serves as a good intro to the Scouting Combine.
I’m not doing a generic review of the Senior Bowl. This is a write-up on how the players in Mobile fit the Eagles. I’ll cover the guys who do and mention some of the notable guys who don’t.
BEST FITS
Eric Fisher – The best LT in Mobile. Very good player who should fit all 32 teams.
Lane Johnson – Great athlete. Former QB, TE, and DE. Would be an ideal fit in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. Good pass blocker, but also has a nasty streak. Finishes blocks and likes to punish defenders. Can play RT or LT. Did both at Oklahoma and in Mobile. Not good enough to go at #4 and won’t last to the 2nd round. Too bad. He’d be a great fit for the Eagles and Kelly. Johnson was very good in the drills. He did a great job of extending his arms and getting control of rushers. Has a thin, athletic build, but still anchored well.
Kyle Long – Played for Chip at Oregon. Missed the practices due to an illness. Stayed in Mobile and kept up with things so that he could get healthy and play in the game. I can’t recall ever hearing of a guy doing that. Very impressive. Long played LG and LT in the game. I liked what I saw. I don’t think he’s got the footwork to play LT in the NFL, but might be able to play RT. Tough, physical player. Really pounded on defenders when he got the chance. Played strong. Able to get movement in the run game and hold his ground in pass protection. Uses his hands well. Figuring out his value is tricky. Would love to get him in the mid-rounds.
Terron Armstead – Athletic LT from Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Played well at the Shrine Game and then was a late addition to the Senior Bowl. Armstead is a bit of a project. Needs to get bigger and stronger. Does have the potential to be a starting LT in the NFL. Could he play in 2013? That’s the tough question. I think he’d be worth the risk because of the potential he showed. I loved the fact that he showed up in Mobile late, but never looked overwhelmed. He did well in the drills and in the game. Armstead is a natural pass blocker. Good feet. He’s also confident and competitive. Kelly loves guys like that. Armstead could be a terrific fit in the Eagles offense.
* * *
Datone Jones – Measured in at 6-4, 280. Interesting size. Do you play him at DE or DT? Looked really good as an edge rusher in the drills and in the game. Only guy all weak to cleanly beat Fisher. Jones used a hard inside move and flew right by him. The Eagles could be interested in Jones in a couple of ways. They could stick him at the 3-technique spot and shift Fletcher Cox out to the 5-tech. Or they could leave Cox at 3-tech and put Jones out at 5-tech. Question is whether the Eagles prefer a pass rusher or run defender at the 5-tech. I do think Jones versatility will have Chip Kelly and Bill Davis very interested. He’s got an excellent frame (could easily add weight) and is a gifted pass rusher. Should go in the 2nd or early 3rd round.
Kawaan Short – Another versatile DL. Short is 6-3, 308. He had a good showing in Mobile. His quick burst and rip move helped him to beat blockers more than a few times. Looked good in the game. Short could be a 3-tech DT for the Eagles, but could also be a NT, assuming the team does want more of a 1-gap type NT. Short can take on double teams. It isn’t his specialty, but he will battle them. Should go in the 2nd round.
Brandon Williams – Small school kid who came to Mobile and opened some eyes. Measured in at 6-2, 340. Had a solid day on Tuesday and then looked very good on Wednesday. Quick off the ball. Light on his feet. Able to beat blockers and get into the backfield. My biggest question is his ability to take on double teams, but there were some plays in the game where he showed that kind of potential. Williams certainly has the size and strength. He was able to overwhelm single blockers more than a few times. If Williams is able to max out his potential, he could be an outstanding NT. Not sure what his value is right now.
Sylvester Williams – Another versatile DL. Could play 5-tech, NT, or 3-tech. Measured in at 6-3, 313. Able to get his hands on blockers and play 2-gaps on some plays. When he fires off the ball, has the quickness to get into the backfield and be disruptive. In the game Williams was able to get good push vs Brian Schwenke multiple times. Williams has a good combination of strength and quickness. Could be a real interesting NT for the Eagles. Probably goes in the 2nd round.
Ziggy Ansah – Ziggy, Ziggy, Ziggy. Never stood out in the 1-on-1 drills. Looked good in the team drills. Then had a great showing in the game. The only question with Ziggy is where the Eagles would prefer him. At 6-5, 274 he could be the 5-tech DE or he could be the SAM. That might sound crazy, but I think he could handle both. Ansah is strong enough and physical enough to be a good run defender. He’s athletic enough to be a good pass rusher. He’s at his best on the run and just making things happen, which is what you’d want at SAM in the new system. I think Ansah would be fine in coverage. Think of him as similar to Willie McGinest, who played OLB and DE for the Pats over the years. I think Ziggy could be in the mix at #4.
John Jenkins – Massive NT at 6-4, 359. Whether you call it the 3-4 or 4-3 Under, there is a need for someone to be the NT. Jenkins can be dominating at times. Played some DE at Georgia as well, but strictly as a run defender. Had a solid showing in Mobile. I was impressed with the effort he showed. Had some very good moments. I didn’t love what I saw because as big as he is, didn’t always look like a 359-pound DL. Big guys need to be bullies that play with a mean streak.
* * *
Jonathan Cyprien – Arguably the best defensive player in Mobile. Was good in coverage, but great vs the run and as a hitter and tackler. Really stood out when I studied the game. Lined up deep at FS and attacked downhill aggressively. When he was in the box he got to the runner before the LBs on many plays. Tough. Physical. Good range. Athletic. Can cover. Could play either FS or SS. Would love to get him with the 2nd round pick, but not so sure he lasts that long.
Phillip Thomas – Didn’t stand out in Mobile, but had a solid showing and he’s a good S prospect. Projects to FS because he’s such a natural ballhawk. Did show great hands in the drills and practices, but we knew that coming in. Led the nation with 8 INTs this year. The Eagles must come up with more takeaways.
POSSIBLE PLAYERS OF INTEREST
Vance McDonald – Versatile player from Rice came to Mobile and made a name for himself. Showed the speed to get deep, despite being 6-4, 262. Had some drops, but also made tough catches. Good athlete that Chip Kelly could have interest in. Best football is in front of him.
Mychal Rivera – Small guy who is a TE/H-back type. Only goes 6-3, 237. Better blocker than I expected. Showed the ability to get downfield as a receiver. Made a couple of highlight grabs. If Kelly wants a player to move around and create matchups with, Rivera could be of interest.
Kyle Juszczyk – One of the stars of Mobile. Goes 6-3, 240. Played TE at Harvard, but FB in Mobile. Very physical player. Stood out in blocking drills. Could be a TE/H-back for the Eagles. Also would help on STs. Nicknamed…Juice.
Denard Robinson – If the price is right…Chip Kelly could be interested. He loves players that can be moved around to create good matchups. Robinson is 5-11, 196. That’s good size for him. Could be RB. Showed WR potential. Was lost as a RS, but just needs work. If Robinson is available on Day 3, maybe the Eagles take a chance. Would be a luxury pick, but Robinson has the potential to be a playmaker.
Justin Pugh – Rough trip. Arms were only 31.5 inches. That means playing LT in the NFL is a long shot. Got plenty of reps at LT in the practices. Showed that he has the footwork to play OT, but his arm length was an issue going against top competition. Got snaps at LG in the practices and the game. Showed potential. Good run blocker. Chip Kelly likes versatile OL. Pugh could get plugged in at RG or RT. Might be able to play LT, but I’ve got my doubts.
David Quessenberry – Played LT at San Jose State. Tried some OT in the practices in Mobile. Didn’t show LT footwork. Got plugged in at OG and looked right at home. Did get some reps at RT and was okay. Quessenberry has a tall, athletic build. That frame and his versatility could make him of interest.
* * *
Margus Hunt – Huge DE at 6-8, 277. Could be a 5-tech DE for the Eagles. Gifted athlete, but not special. Bill Davis coached a big, tall, athletic guy in Arizona – Calais Campbell. But Campbell is/was better than Hunt. Hunt flashed at times, but wasn’t a consistent force off the edge. He’s older and that has to be factored in.
Josh Boyd – Late addition. 6-2, 312. DT from Mississippi State who showed some potential as a NT. I came away impressed and wanting to watch more tape on him.
Alex Okafor – Another guy who could be in the mix for the 5-tech spot if the Eagles want a pass rusher there. Goes 6-5, 265. Okafor struggled when going up vs Fisher in the drills. He just didn’t have the speed to beat him. Okafor did have better success when he shfited to a bull rush.
Kevin Reddick – DeMeco Ryans isn’t getting any younger. Reddick could be a good ILB. Has some size at 6-2, 246. Stood out in pass rushing drills. Loves to attack. Isn’t a conventional ILB. You saw good moments in the game, but really does need to be in a system that will take advantage of his skills.
Sio Moore – Odd player. Loves to rush the passer. Looks good at DE. Problem is that he’s only 6-1, 240. Moore looked good at times in the game. He’s best when attacking, whether off the edge or downhill from ILB. He’s shorter than most guys Kelly likes, but his ability to get to the QB and make plays could have the Eagles attention. Would need to play ILB in the Eagles system.
Nico Johnson – I didn’t get a strong feel for Johnson while down in Mobile. He started for Alabama, so you know he’s got ability. Failed to flash on a regular basis. Had one really nice tackle in the game where he got through traffic to hit a runner in the backfield. At 6-2, 249, Johnson has the build of an ILB.
Chase Thomas – 3-4 OLB from Stanford who made a ton of plays in the backfield. Got to Mobile and they put him at 4-3 SAM. Thomas struggled in coverage. He has some athleticism, but is so much more comfortable rushing the QB than dropping into coverage. Thomas had some good moments in the game. He is a tough, physical player. He could be an interesting target for the SAM role in Philly. Remember, that’s 70 percent rush/30 percent cover (approx).
Ty Powell – Small school player from Harding (Remember Tank Daniels?). Powell played DE in college and had 8.5 sacks this year. Watching him in the drills, you could see he was a talented pass rusher. At only 6-2, 245, he was shifted to OLB in Mobile. Did a solid job. Struggled in coverage, but it was more due to experience than lack of athleticism. Powell is a bit of a project, but the Eagles could look at him as someone to develop. Doesn’t have the ideal build (would need to be 6-4). No idea if he could play ILB.
Vince Williams – The Eagles have good ILBs right now, but there is a need for depth, unless you fully trust Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews. Williams is a limited athlete, but was arguably the most physical player at the Senior Bowl. He knocked the crap out of a few OL. RBs who came through the hole were not happy to see Vince. Has limited speed and range, which may keep him from being a starter in the NFL, but the kind of thumper that could be a solid backup.
Duke Williams – Only goes 5-11, 201 or he might be listed in the first category. Bill Davis and John Lovett both say they prefer big DBs. Williams stood out to me with his man cover skills in the drills. There were a few reps when he locked down WRs. I wasn’t expecting that. Good hitter/tackler. Played with Cyprien in the game and you could see the difference in them, but Williams is a good prospect.
JJ Wilcox – Former RB from Georgia Southern showed big time potential as a Safety prospect. Has a sturdy, thick build at 5-11, 214. Wilcox was up and down in the coverage drills. He’s better as a run defender and tackler. Seems best suited to being a FS. Keep things in front of him and then attack. He is a downhill player and will knock the crap out of you. Good speed and range. Plays hard. He’s still new to DB so the man cover skills should develop with practice. Remember that he played at a school that runs the triple option. Wilcox wasn’t getting good coverage reps in practice.
TJ McDonald – I had a mixed opinion of McDonald going into the week and came out feeling the same way. Excellent frame at 6-2, 211. Could easily bulk up to 220 and play in the box or could stay thin and be a FS. I was highly impressed with the ball skills he showed in drills. McDonald caught the ball very easily. Looked natural. Can also be a tough guy. There was a day in practice when he attacked an OL on the move and flattened the guy. You see the potential, but the performance leaves you wanting more. Burned for a TD in the game by a 269-pound TE. McDonald had a chance to knock the ball away, but missed it. Is he an underachiever or a guy who simply has yet to put it all together?
Shawn Williams – Measured in at 6-0, 211. That’s solid size. Looks like more of a SS type, which is what he played at Georgia. Failed to really stand out, but had a solid showing. Did look better in coverage than I expected. Also got some shots in on receivers and was a physical presence, which we need.
Marc Anthony – I knew very little about the Cal CB when I got to Mobile, but he impressed me right away. Looks natural in coverage. Fluid player with good instincts and he plays with the right kind of attitude. Looked good in practice and the game. Goes 5-11, 191. That’s solid size for a CB, but I’m not sure if he’s what Davis and Lovett are looking for.
Desmond Trufant – One of the stars of the week. Trufant was outstanding in Mobile. He was very physical with receivers. Too physical at times. He jumped routes and played very aggressively. His lack of deep speed is a question, but the guy has good cover skills. Big time attitude, which can be good at CB. Wouldn’t admit to getting beat on plays where he was cleanly beat. Goes 5-11, 190. Could be a 1st round pick.
Blidi Wreh-Wilson – I think he was the tallest CB in Mobile at 6-1. The UConn star didn’t have a great week of practice by any stretch, but his frame and movement skills will get the Eagles attention if they’re looking for big corners.
Jordan Poyer – Another CB who shined in Mobile. Measured in at 6-0, 182. That’s good height, but needs to add muscle. Poyer was outstanding on short and intermediate throws. Showed great instincts. Incredibly quick in his break on the ball. That allows him to break up and pick off lots of passes. Doesn’t have top long speed and that’s a concern, but if you want a playmaking corner, Poyer is at the top of the list. I’m thinking he goes in the 2nd round.
MISC
Other CBs – There were plenty of other good CBs in Mobile. What I’m not sure of his if the Eagles will want guys that look like they could be projects. The secondary has major holes. It would be great to get players who can contribute right away. I focused on guys that I thought the Eagles were most likely to be interested in.
RBs – I think the Eagles are pretty set here so it isn’t worth mentioning.
WRs – I don’t see the Eagles adding anyone early. The team could add a bigger WR later in the draft, but no one in Mobile jumped out as a late round target.
QBs – We’ve already started talking about them and that will continue. They are a subject unto themselves.
Larry Warford – Terrific week, but the massive RG just doesn’t seem to fit the Chip Kelly offense or style of play.
Cornelius Washington – Good week, but at 6-4, 264 I’m not sure what to make of him. I think he’s best suited for 4-3 DE. Good pass rusher. I’m not sure how athletic he is. Looked like a straight-line player to me.
_
Ansah at #4? Bit of a stretch for a very raw player who is even more of a potential pick than Jordan.
These are the guys you take after you trade down a couple times and know you’re going to have a deep draft of solid players and want to take a swing for a HR.
At #4, you want to get a high probability player, someone like Luke or Warmack or Floyd or Star, that you have a lot of confidence at worst they’ll be a solid starter, a notch below pro bowl, at best an elite player.
But wasn’t that the exact problem we all had with AR’s drafting? Always a pretty good player, but rarely a great or elite player? Granted they were rarely bust’s as well, but that’s kind of part of it.
There’s going to be a certain amount of gambling on potential, even that high in the draft. And especially so in a draft that, at first glance, doesn’t seem to have many, if any, can’t miss, slam dunk, 100% elite prospects.
At some point you’ve got to take a chance on elite, instead of just banking on pretty good. That’s why guys who are rated highly in this draft but seem altogether ordinary, like Kenny Vaccaro and Dee Milliner, scare me. They’re solid, which is good, and they’ll probably start and play for you this year. But I don’t think either one of them is ever going to be elite. And in a few years you’ll probably just be talking about upgrading them anyways.
No, the problem we had were too many misses the last few years.
If Watkins turns out to be a solid RG, and Allen the FS we thought we had, and Jarrett the SS he was supposed to be, last season might have looked quite different. Graham staying healthy could have made a big difference the last two years, they never would have brought in Babin.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. You can play that game with any scenario. In my experience, it’s mostly a worthless exercise. You draft well to begin with and the whole “next guy up” strategy should work. Then you’re not employing every free agent with a name who ends up on the trash heap.
Yes, we missed in the last few drafts and things went bad. But this started before the last few drafts. Even when Reid and Co. hit in the draft, it wasn’t a home run. With a few notable exceptions it was most likely a double into the gap, if not the aforementioned outright miss. Mike Patterson, Jeremy Maclin, Bunkley, Lito, Kolb, Laws. And that’s being generous considering how some of their careers seem to be ending up.
My point is, the Eagles for years were a team that played it safe. Played not to lose. And that doesn’t win you championships. Gambling on massive talent and/or potential at the top of the draft does, because it belies a deeper philosophy of being ready to give up every last little bit to win. And I think that may be the biggest change we’re gonna see from Andy to Chip.
“Gambling on massive talent and/or potential at the top of the draft….”
Eagles under Reid only had two top 10 picks in 14 years; Corey Simon and Donovan McNabb. Simon was a pro bowler and McNabb is a borderline HOFer. They did just fine when they actually drafted early.
In a general sense, and thus to me, in this conversation, the entire first round is “the top of the draft”.
No, huge difference between the first 20 picks and the next 15 picks. Even in the first 20, top 10 is much better than the second 10.
That’s why I cringe when people say 1st rd or 2nd rd, huge difference between #5 or #25, or between #35 and #55.
My question is…why does this matter? Wherever they drafted, whether it be early or late, they should have drafted quality players. You yourself said they didn’t. And with good cause. They didn’t draft well. And even when they did, they didn’t hit home runs. Who did they draft that was elite? Truly elite. Not really good. Elite.
Donovan? Yes, but he was still the third best QB during his time in the league. Corey Simon for a short time. Shawn Andrews for a short time. LeSean. DeSean has elite speed, but is a limited player elsewhere. Trent’s been a great player for a long time and you still couldn’t argue for him as elite because he doesn’t possess the athleticism.
That’s about it. And that’s not a lot of stars in 14 years.
Good points. I think it is a mistake to analogize Watkins, Allen, Jarrett to Ansah. None of those players were superior athletes coming out of college, Ansah went to BYU as an oversized track athlete that wanted to play basketball. Ansah doesn’t have a lot of playing experience but his upside is tremendous, if in 2 yrs he is a double digit sack “artist” no one would view taking him at 4 (or wherever) as a stretch. If you went back and look at the past few drafts, dominant pass rushers like JPP (and I don’t want to compare Ansah to Pierre Paul) or Aldon Smith would never last until teens if done over. There’s a premium on pass rushers.
Ansah is very much in the mix at number 4. Have you watched his tape? People say his only played football for 3 years and therefore raw. Raw is not the right word; he’s inexperienced.
“Ansah at #4? Bit of a stretch for a very raw player who is even more of a potential pick than Jordan.” Ansah isn’t more potential pick than Jordan, I think Ansah rates higher. Jordan has some injury history and you have to project him out plus 20-40 lbs (although he was listed at around 242 I read he played closer to 225lbs this past season), you already have tape of Ansah playing at 270+ lbs.
Vinny Curry timed faster than Ansah. I’d wait a year before drafting a SAM unless it’s a superstar. Ansah is small for 3-4 DE.
Also, I’d want written assurance that Chip Kelly wouldn’t sing “Dry Bones” if asked for an injury report on Ezekiel during a presser.
Reposted from extended typing for old topic:
On the current draft value chart, the Eagles would break even trading down
to 16 if they receive 16 + the Cards 2nd in 2013, plus a 2nd in 2014 if
they finish in the bottom 20, assuming 2013 and 2014 pix are the same
value which many think aren’t. If they sweetened the deal by offering
1sts in 2013 and 2014, or a 2013 3rd plus the above plus an additional
pick, then it’s worth considering. I personally would make it clear
that the Eagles will trade the pick only if someone blows them away with
a package, and there’s a possibility that someone gets locked in on a
player (often a QB like Geno) that they do that. That may actually be a
rationalization for trading Foles to KC – even if KC picks Joeckel,
someone will want Geno at 4 so much the Eagles be offered a package 2/3
as sweet as what the Skins paid the Cards for RG3.
Looking at the mocks as a group:
* Lotulelei is on the board at 4 in 1/3 of mocks.
* Joeckel is on the board in most mocks, though for the past four
days it’s been more like 40%. Vick was signed over eleven days ago,
creating the perception the Foles to KC trade is more likely.
* Milliner is on the board in about 95% of mocks.
* Warmack is on the board in, it would appear, all mocks.
My thinking is: Make a determination on Joeckel v. Lotulelei v.
Warmack. Right now I’d say getting Joeckel would be a major boon to the
offense with or without a healthy Peters, and he’d be priority no. 1,
tho I wouldn’t trade up for him. Then I think Lotulelei’s potential,
especially developing alongside Cox, is hard to pass up if he’s on the
board at 4, but I’m not inclined to trade up for him because 2 and 3
want DL anyway and will overcharge. If Joeckel and Lotulelei are off the
board at 4, I seriously think Warmack at 4 is a good pick, unless
someone blows you away with an offer. If CB Milliner is on the board, I
would entertain the possibility of trading down because though I think
Milliner could anchor the secondary for years, the drop-off between him
and Banks or a guy at another position isn’t much. I still think that
getting NTs Hankins, Jenkins, or Jesse Williams at 35 would be a good
long term move, even if they get Lotulelei at 4. Cox, Lotulelei, and one
of those three would give offenses fits for years.
I was talking about SAM here recently: After you go 4-12, hire a
college coach, and switch to the 3-4 you should give Curry an extended
chance at SAM if the coaches think it’s a good idea. Now is the time to
take Best Available to try to get star players and though I think
Damontre Moore will be a Pro Bowler, I wouldn’t reach for a SAM, a CB,
S, or anything else. Reach for a player if you’re worried about beating
SF in the conference championship.
http://youtu.be/_bNH5pfcLWE
Personally, I don’t know the Singing Detective.
“Dry Bones” always makes me think of Rain Man and what an awesome, underrated soundtrack that movie has.
One of my all-time favorite television moments.
What in the hell was that? I find it hard to believe I’ve never even heard of it, but I am in the dark.
The Singing Detective was a BBC series from the late 80’s. That clip, taken out of context here, doesn’t mean all that much but within the context of the narrative is hilarious. The gist is that the patient is hallucinating out of the incredible pain he’s suffering from a skin and joint disease. (You had to be there.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singing_Detective
What about the idea of trading back for D. Jordan? I am not as sold on Star because of the criticisms that he takes plays off and is very good but not elite. I think Jordan has the potential to be someone special. He could be the answer for some of the better TEs in this league. Also, his pass rushing ability allows you to mix up a few things and become a step closer to being that unpredictable defense all the kids are raving about these days. I just think getting a SAM is more important than a 5 tech. We already have two players who can play the 5, but no one ideal to play SAM. I know Curry is a possibility, but I’d rather take my chances with Jenkins and Jordan on the strong side versus Curry and Star.
I should correct what I said above: Vinny Curry’s best 40 was 4.79, Jordan’s is 4.68, Ansah’s is 4.62. Jordan is 20 pounds lighter than the other two. Picking a SAM means means abandoning the experiment of Curry there. Lotulelei had a better college career than Jordan. Jordan’s player type and measureables are more common than Lotulelei’s but Ansah does put up some measureables.
I don’t know too many 6’6-6’7 guys that can cover slot receivers. I get your point about Curry, but I don’t see getting Jordan as a one year move. Unless he has a great year, it’s unlikely Cole will be an Eagle in 2014, especially if we move closer to a 3-4. Curry and Graham could then play the predator, and Curry could serve as depth at the SAM spot, if he’s proven to be competent there in practice. Also, the fact that we can trade down for Jordan entices me, as I’d rather have Jordan and an additional second (to be used at S, CB, or DT) rather than Star. I just don’t think he’s worth two starters at need positions, when we have serviceable talent there for 2013.
Norris, Rang and Brugler have Jordan coming off the board at 9. 4 to 9 is worth a mid second round pick. I do think there’s a dropoff between Star and what’s at the board at 9, even though Warmack, Milliner, and Fisher are there on some mocks. Milliner and Fisher are solid starters, without the upside of Star, Joeckel or Warmack. Jordan has covered in college but he’s not ready to be compared to Deion yet.. has I believe actually done very little in that area. He is, like Curry, a risk and developmental, and only a step faster than Curry.
I wonder if – post combine – Jordan’s stock will rise so much that #9 may not get him. I do think taking him at #4 feels a little too high, but my point is that he may be gone, and then – to your point, Ian – you’re looking at a drop-off.
That said, if you did trade back to 9 (and pick up a mid 2nd), and still missed Jordan, you could then take Fisher, and then trade back into the bottom of round 1 with our 2nd and 3rd to pick up Cyprien, and still have the mid 2nd from the first trade left.
Given the lack of top-end talent, would you take a discounted trade to drop back from #4? I think I would this year to have a couple more cracks at the apple in rds. 2 and 3.
What’s a discounted trade?
Less than Jimmy Johnson’s magical trade value chart.
wouldn’t
Cambell may have been a better player, but Hunt is the more gifted athlete – surely? Cambell should have been a better player too, he’d been playing far longer in a game that is his countries national sport, whereas Hunt went to SMU to continue his very successful athletics career.
Re: Eagles’ Needs
T-Law:
Your comment about Kevin Reddick — “DeMeco Ryans isn’t getting any younger” — especially caught my eye because your point about Ryans’ age seems to apply to most of the Eagles projected starters.
And with age comes more costly contracts, too.
Look at the O-line. The “over 30” group is Peters, Herremans, and Mathis. Watkins will be 29 (if he sticks). Vick will be 33. Brent Celek will be 29.
Only Kelce, McCoy and D-Jax (at 27) will be *young* players next season. Maclin will be a young guy, too, but he’s taken a beating about his blocking, so who knows if he he’s here next season.
On defense, Trent Cole will be 31 (and coming off a bad year). DeM Ryans will be 29. Jenkins, if he’s not cut, will be 33.
Both CB and S positions seem up for grabs, although Boykin holds down the slot-CB job and should (hopefully) for several years.
Otherwise, that leaves only 2nd-year guys Fletcher Cox and M-Kendricks as young players projected to start. Graham is young, but his role’s unclear.
Guys like Chaney and Matthews have not proven to be anything but mediocre and easily replaced.
For all the talk about the Eagles being a “young” team, that may be true at the mean. But in terms of starters, maybe not so much.
This is a really good point. At first, it kind of worried me. But now, not so much.
There was an article on CSN with Howie saying something to the effect of he thought the overall talent level was good and so he didn’t think the team needed a massive overhaul. If he’s to be trusted, then I think we’re gonna see some guys who didn’t get much if any playing time under the old regime get more of a chance or take on more centralized roles. Especially if they were drafted or brought in by Howie.
Maybe Curtis Marsh and Brandon Hughes. Definitely Graham and Curry. Ced Thornton could be a starter. One or two of the young, unknown O-linemen we collected last season. Dion Lewis could use more touches (as Jimmy pointed out).
I really think part of the failings of Reid and company at the end was self scouting and self evaluation. Things like keeping Babin on the field over Graham were just ridiculous in hindsight. I wonder if maybe there aren’t some other guys who will step up in replacement of aging veterans.
Agreed with a lot of your comments. Ansah is the best 3-4 lb/de prospect and you already know he can run with his weight and in a 2-3 years he could be a top 3-4 player, obviously would like to trade back for him but that may not be an option. His pass rush technique is raw but he was all over the field during the game, was game planned against, Eagles might be able to mold him (minor though), and he ran through and over blockers on special teams at BYU. He made himself into a player and seems to have high character, hard work ethic, and a motor and good stamina. A risky pick but could pay off big.
Cyprien looked like a complete player and I like his build. Of course I would like to trade back and still get Ansah and Cyprien and have another top 50 pick.
Fisher, Brandon Williams, Poyer, Trufant, and Warford also stuck out. Sio Moore was also outstanding in the E/W Shrine game. He seems to have good downhill read and react and I agree he is very intriguing inside especially if he gets lost in the shuffle. Really don’t know either way if he can cover.
I’m not sure Warford can’t play in Kelly’s system with Stoutland. He showed good feet and looked like he could wall off and I think he’s a great OG prospect although I doubt he’ll be around in the 3rd where some have had him going. I thought he was at LG during the game but it’s a long time ago now.
Another concern I have with Kyle Long at LT is his arm length is 32 but he can’t be ignored to move inside if he’s there in the 3rd/4th.
Also still not sure if Sylvester Williams is what they will look for at NT or not. How do you like him compared to Brandon Williams and Jesse Williams? He’s a better pass rusher than Jesse Williams but is he strong enough to tie up blockers if that’s what they prefer?
Hate to put everything into one game with Margus Hunt but he was a disappointment and was known as a player who flashed at SMU , he seemed almost to be reading and reacting so slow he was just standing there. At his age, it’s a worry but there’s no question he is a great athlete for his size. Maybe he slips and is worth a shot, I’m skeptical he’s worth a high 3rd depending on what is there.
Kyle Long 5-5, 313 arm length 33.38 at combine according to walterfootball’s weigh ins which is better than what I had from senior bowl weigh in.
Joeckel 6-6, 306 34.28 arm length
Fisher 6-7, 306 34.48 arm length
Johnson 6-6, 303 35.28 arm length
Warmack 6-2, 317 34.58 arm length
Jones 6-4, 306 34.18 arm length
Fluker 6-5, 339 36.68 arm length
Cooper 6-2, 311 33.08 arm length
Warford 6-3, 332 33.38 arm length
I could see Brandon Williams be a 3rd round target if we don’t take Star in the 1st or someone else in the 2nd.
Nice pick. I want to trade back in the third and draft Terron Armstead and pick up a extra late round pick
I like this plan.
That no longer looks plausible. 4.65!!!!!!!!! Impossible.
His tape still matter most. He is very weak against ball rushes and in run blocking.
Re: 1st Rd Picks . . . O-line v. D-line
T-Law:
Looking at the 20 teams in the last 10 Super Bowls, here’s what the data shows:
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*OFFENSIVE LINE*
There were 23 1st-Rd picks starting on the O-line of those 20 teams.
The winning team had only 7 1st-Rders.
The losers had 16 1st-Rders.
5 winning SB teams had Zero 1st-Rd picks on their O-lines.
3 SB winners had just one 1st-Rd pick on the O-line.
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*DEFENSIVE LINE* (includes Rush-OLB, e.g., Terrell Suggs)
There were 34 1st-Rd picks starting on the D-line of the 20 SB teams (again, counting a rush-OLB as a lineman).
The winning teams had 18 1st-Rders.
The losers had 16 1st-Rders.
Only 1 SB winner in the past 10 years did not have a 1st Rd pick starting on the D-line: the 2007 NYG.
______________
The data seems to show that when making a 1st Rd choice, if a D-lineman and O-lineman are ranked about the same, the D-lineman should be the choice.
(Again, that includes players who’ll line-up as OLBs but pass-rush most of the time.)
Amen.
DL is about ability (beat the guy in front of you). Talent can’t be coached.
OL is about technique (working as a unit). That can be coached.
Obviously there are minimums and maximums. Having a Jason Peters or a Mike Iupati is ideal. However there are tons of solid OL, like Evan Mathis, who aren’t elite athletes. How many good DL are there that aren’t either very athletic or very powerful?
Because of this, I want Jordan or Star. Get the guys who can be the foundation of a defense.
Interesting numbers, but I think you could argue that with Cox and Graham currently on the team, we have 2 starters along the Dline that were picked in the first round (which is slightly above average for a Super Bowl winning team). On the offensive line, unless you count Watkins as a starter, we have 0 first round picks on the Oline, which is below average for a Super Bowl winning team. Seems based on your numbers then, that going after an Olineman has better marginal value. 😉
The Eagles did invest a 1st rounder AND a 4th rounder for Jason Peters. It’s the same logic as resource investment.
That’s fair, although in the data above, I assume 1st round picks was strictly where they were drafted, not what additional resources were used to get a player. In other words, if Peters was on a team represented in the above statistics, he would be represented as an UDFA rather than a 1st round pick.
Either way though, I was being slightly tongue-in-cheek with my above comment. The statistics above are certainly interesting, but for me at least, I don’t think you can draw any conclusive strategies of how to proceed moving forward based on them in terms of the Eagles (or any team for that matter). If you are staring at an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman that are equally talented (which is an unlikely hypothetical to begin with because at some point you will convince yourself one is better than the other), you go with the guy that fills the bigger hole in your roster based on what you as a coach and GM determine is the biggest need. If you have a gaping hole on the Oline and an ok set of Dlineman, and you believe you can’t function as an offense with that hole on the oline, you go after the olineman. I think when you over complicate things with “there have been more 1st round dlineman than 1st round olineman on Super Bowl winning teams,” that’s when you risk going against your draft board/value board and missing on players in my opinion.
In 2004, Eagles had 2 no. 1 picks on O-line to Pat’s zero.
Tongue in cheek or not, tie goes to the d-lineman.
Those types of stories are always good, but they are anecdotal at best. Even with a 10 year time frame they are anecdotal. The sample sizes are way to small, especially with a league that changes from year to year, to come up with any kind of conclusive statement. What would be more important would be trying to determine the reasons why those trends may be the way they are. Maybe 1st round dlineman do in fact add more to the team than 1st round olineman. Maybe it is purely coincidence. Maybe the success rate of teams is completely unrelated to the number of first round lineman they have on their team. There are so many alternative explanations as to why Super Bowl teams have more first round dlineman than first round olineman that jumping to the conclusion that you should draft a dlineman over an olineman is simply unsupported, at least based on the data above. This is a classic case of correlation does not imply causation. You are ignoring way to many factors to jump from one to the other.
I agree with most of this post, but I pulled this part:
you go with the guy that fills the bigger hole in your roster based on what you as a coach and GM determine is the biggest need.
Because I think we can all agree, or at least acknowledge, that this can be a flawed strategy of drafting.
Sometimes ou take the player who is going to be the best player long term, regardless of need.
Fully agree that you go with the guy who is going to be the best player long term. Actually, if you reread my statement above, I was saying IF you have both rated equally in terms of long term value, then that’s when you pick the player that fills a hole better. So we don’t disagree at all on that point.
Good points.
As an aside, the 2004 Patriots had 3 no. 1 picks on the defensive line to the Eagles’ 2.
This is an interesting dissection but I wonder if this might be fuzzy math… Or, to borrow from the tiny print at the bottom of every mutual fund prospectus: “past performance does not predict future performance.”
O-line vs. D-line in 1st round selections might have no significant correlation to Super Bowl appearance or performance, especially when O-line includes “left tackle, center, right guard… etc.” and D-line can be defined as DE, OLB as well as nose-tackle (for the Baltimore and New England appearances) and so on. There’s also the issue that 4 of the 20 teams were the Patriots and 3 of the 20 were the Steelers so is there a sample-size issue that doesn’t account for self-bias, or are we saying that those teams are in the Super Bowl so often because they chose D-line instead of O-line in the 1st round?
I would caution that the only significant factor in determining Super Bowl victories is which team scored more points in that game. It’s the frustrating part of football being the ultimate team sport – attempting to strip the game down to statistics or positional relevance bears little fruit when so many games seem to come down to a last minute field-goal or catch against some dude’s helmet or an arcane rule about tucking.
All of that said, I do think statistics CAN inform personnel questions when deciding which injury risks are more severe than others. And even those are constantly changing as surgical procedures and recovery strategies become more advanced…
Great points. I fully agree that trying to break down statistics in football is an incredibly difficult task. I think statistics are a great way to start an idea and begin a discussion, but then you have to make sure to dissect those numbers carefully and understand why they came to be. Sometimes you will determine that those numbers justify the conclusion. At other times, you will find that those numbers do not accurately measure the reality of the argument.
Offense wins games, defense wins championships. It hasn’t changed in my opinion and this data could be used to validate that.
Hmm, interesting.
I think, though, as a counter-point, we could go back through the last 10 drafts on look at how many first-round pick OL became great players, and how many DL barely made an impact (Dwayne Robertson, Ryan Sims, Rien Long, Derrick Harvey, etc.)
So many top-10 pick DL end up being busts, or complete wastes of picks. O-Line in the top 10 seems like one of the safest picks you can make in terms of recouping value from your draft spot.
In other news, when is AC Viking getting his own day to guest-host the blog? Give Tommy offseason Mondays off (recuperating from weekends of PBR is important) and let AC start the convo.
What about Marquise Goodwin?
I know we don’t “need” a guy like that, but he seems to flash some special athletic ability and runs good routes. Is he likely to still be on the board when we pick in the 3rd round?
I think he’ll go in the early 3rd round. Possible for late 2nd. Can’t see the Eagles taking him. Too much like DJax.
Any Ducks fans here? If so what can you tell me about John Boyett. Seems like a good FS prospect that might go undrafted
Whenever I watched North Carolina in the 2011 season I tried to concentrate on Zach Brown because I thought he might be of interest to us but Kevin Reddick was the one who seemed to be making more plays. He looked especially good “attacking” but seemed to need improvement dropping into coverage so I understand your comment concerning the right “system”. Didn’t watch UNC in 2012.
The more I think about it, the more Lane Johnson makes sense. If Joeckel is gone and they don’t want Geno and they are looking at Eric Fisher or Star in that spot, Johnson + the Titans #40 is better than equal value in my opinion.
Overall, I really prefer moving back to #10. Even if it’s not for Johnson, you could still nab Vaccaro or Jones or Moore or Milliner or Richardson or Jordan. Someone in that category is bound to be there, and you acquire a very good 2nd round pick. It’s a perfectly fair trade on the chart too. The question is if there is a player the Titans covet enough that they feel compelled to go up there to get him.
Good points.
And I suspect every team in the top 4-5 is thinking the same thing. Makes perfect sense.
Since Lane Johnson has only played (and been coached) as an OT for 2 years that means 2013 will increase his experience at the position by 50%! While watching him run during the senior bowl game, thought he looked like a TE with an illegal #. Agree with you that he’s not worth the 4th pick in “2013” but when the MMQB’s “re-draft” 2013 he may be. Extra bonus would be watching him in goal line packages after we put an additional OL inside him. If a LB over him you run & if a DL over him you throw to him. How’s that for a different “read-option”?
Tommy, Where do yo think Fisher will go? I know you don’t like him at #4.
top 10
He’ll go Top 10. Daniel Jeremiah just said on Twitter he doesn’t see Fisher lasting past pick 7.
Tommy, New England has 5 picks in this years draft. They are probably looking to accumulate more. Suppose we get KC’s 2nd rounder for Foles and a 5th. Pick 29 comes around (NE) and Matt Barkley is still on the board. We send them KC’s 2nd round pick (33 overall) and a 6th round pick to move up and snag Barkley with Pick 29. Would you be totally opposed to this scenario?
I don’t see Barkley being Kelly’s type of QB.
Armstead’s incredible 40-yard dash0
00:48 – 306-pound Arkansas Pine-Bluff offensive tackle Terron Armstead runs a 4.71-second 40-yard dash.
Wow! Is this the fastest 40 yard time ever posted by a 300+ offensive lineman?! He’s faster than some LBs…!