Geno Smith

Posted: March 17th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 69 Comments »

The Eagles aggressive foray into free agency has more than a few people now believing the team will spend pick #4 on QB Geno Smith.  There is some logic behind this thinking.

The Eagles brass went down to West Va and took an up close look at Smith.  They put him through an intense on-field workout and then grilled him on the whiteboard (testing his knowledge of plays and offensive concepts).  I’m sure the Eagles had someone at his Pro Day event last week, where Smith showed off much-improved footwork.  Smith has been working with QB guru Chris Weinke since the season ended.

Smith wasn’t great at the Combine, but he did catch a few people by surprise when he ran the fastest 40 time of any QB.  Smith was first in the broad jump and second in the vertical jump.  He ended up being a heck of a lot more athletic than expected.

Previously the idea of spending pick #4 on a QB seemed crazy, due to the many holes on the roster.  Then the Eagles went and acquired 9 new players, as many as 7 of which could be starters.  Wow.  That gave the Eagles a lot of flexibility in the draft.  The team can now truly go into the draft looking for talent rather than to fill holes.

So now we have the Eagles showing specific interest in Smith, due to his combination of passing skills and athleticism, and also having draft flexibility.  Could this be Chip Kelly’s guy?

No.  I simply don’t see Chip wanting Geno at #4.

If things change and Smith is the pick, you can all beat me over the head with my prediction, but I don’t see the match.  When you draft a QB early, you’re looking for a star QB.  I see Smith as a future NFL starter, but I don’t see him as anything special.  Would he be an upgrade on Nick Foles?  Probably, but not definitively.  Before you go nuts and rant against me, remember all the sure-fire QBs who haven’t panned out: Joey Harrington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, David Carr, etc.  Those guys won trophies and bowl games and deserved to be high picks.  They all failed miserably.  Foles is far from a sure thing, but he has shown that he can be a functional player in the NFL.  Smith is a total unknown.

I think the team that takes Geno Smith is going to be one that has an empty QB cupboard or has some sense of desperation about them.  The Bills have a terrible QB situation.  The Jaguars are desperate for something good to happen to their organization.  The Cardinals have been awful at QB since Kurt Warner left.  And so on.

The Eagles are not set at QB by a long shot.  There is no player that Chip Kelly can say with confidence is “his guy”.

Could Smith be his guy?  It is possible. I don’t question Geno’s talent.  The guy makes some throws that are breathtaking.  He has good accuracy and great touch.  His arm is maybe a hint above average, but nothing special.  It is certainly good enough to be a starter.  Smith is a smart player that generally makes good decisions.

One huge turn-off for me is Smith’s 5-game losing streak in 2012.  I don’t think QBs should get over-judged as winners/losers in the NFL because circumstances are so important, but that stuff is relevant in college.  If Smith is truly a franchise QB, how could he not stop a losing streak?  West Va’s only “good” win this year came against Baylor, a team that finished 8-5.  Beyond that they beat a bunch of mediocre or bad teams.  In 3 losses, the West Va offense was held to just 14 points.  And this is a unit with a pair of 1st round picks in Smith and Tavon Austin, and a Top 100 WR in Steadman Bailey.  There are another couple of guys who have a shot at getting drafted later.

While Smith did post great numbers, how much of that is him and how much is Austin/Bailey?  30 percent of Smith’s passes were screens, passes at or behind the LOS.  That’s an enormous total.  Another 42 percent of his throws came in the 1-10 yard range.  Think about that.  72 percent of his passes came within 10 yards of the LOS.  He lived on RAC yards.  Austin was the most dynamic RAC player in all of college football.

Smith was great in coach Dana Holgorsen’s system and getting the ball to those players.  Projecting him to the NFL is where you start having to think and guess.  How does he fit in?  How good can he be?  Smith can run the read-option, but didn’t do it in college so you don’t know how well he could do that.  His deep balls aren’t great, partially due to his arm.  In that sense, he would be either no improvement over Foles or just a marginal one.

Smith is not anywhere close to as good as Andrew Luck or RG3.  I don’t think he’s nearly as good as Ryan Tannehill.  I would compare him more to Brandon Weeden, with Smith being a younger, more athletic version with less of an arm.  Is that really the guy you take at #4?

Maybe it will turn out that Chip Kelly really hit it off with Smith and that is the guy he wants.  I don’t see it, but I’m still learning about Kelly and could be dead wrong.  I know that Smith doesn’t fit my criteria of being a player I’d want to hitch my wagon to.  If you draft him #4, you’re putting your career in your hands.  Look what Blaine Gabbert did to the guys in Jacksonville.  If Smith became and Eagle and failed, that would be at the top of Kelly’s resume.  Do you trust Smith enough to make him “your guy”?  I’d be asking him over and over about the 5-game losing streak.  If he can’t stop that, how’s he going to handle tough times in the NFL?

It is possible that Smith gets to the NFL and thrives.  He could become a star player.  His improved footwork will help.  Maybe West Va was a dysfunctional team and that affected him in a negative way.  If he gets with the right coach and players, maybe Smith turns out to be a franchise QB.

I’m not willing to bet my job on that and I don’t think Chip Kelly will either.

* * * * *

In case you want to watch a QB’s Pro Day…here you go:

69 Comments on “Geno Smith”

  1. 1 NoDecaf said at 12:28 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    No convincing needed here. I believe the Birds try to trade back and/or add both a CB and T early.

  2. 2 teltschikfakeout88 said at 12:39 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Onto the 5 game losing streak. This was WVU’s first time through the Big 12 schedule. Familiarity with opponents has to be considered or in this case unfamiliarity? Not looking for reasons to draft the guy but wanted to consider another angle. Unfortunately he does not have another year at the college level.

  3. 3 Alex Karklins said at 1:00 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Can we also use the excuse that WVU’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed all year? Or is that too simplistic? I have no problem with taking Geno at #4, but I also wouldn’t object to Fisher, Millner, or Jordan. I’m not a fan of trading back now after filling so many holes in FA.

  4. 4 holeplug said at 2:13 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Their defense gave up 9.6 yards per pass attempt last year which was dead last in college football. So basically every time their opponent dropped back to pass they picked up a 1st down.

  5. 5 austinfan said at 3:12 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Baylor’s defense was as bad as WV (70-63 final score).

    Florence, who no one thinks is even a draft pick, had as good a year as Geno, despite starting for the first time as a senior, and had less talent.

  6. 6 Phils Goodman said at 9:07 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Guess that proves RGIII is a system QB 😉

  7. 7 Buge Halls said at 3:38 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    And how does poor defensive play lead to poor QB play? The two aren’t connected. if Geno was the offensive weapon people are trying to make him out to be, he would have been able to lead the offense down the field to match.

  8. 8 Alex Karklins said at 3:57 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    When your defense basically forces your offense to go out and try to score 70 points every game, it certainly doesn’t help.

  9. 9 Phils Goodman said at 9:08 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    He threw 42 TDs man. It’s not like he led an inept offense.

  10. 10 dropscience said at 1:41 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Holgorsen was at Texas Tech and Okla State before WVU.

  11. 11 teltschikfakeout88 said at 8:27 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Holgorsen familiarity with the big 12 may help with developing a game plan but it is the players that must execute. I am not making any excuses for taking the guy at 4 or even in the 2nd round just raising a different angle.

  12. 12 SteveH said at 12:51 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Wow, thats a staggering amount of short passes. I didn’t realize so much of what he did was short stuff and screens. His stats would be amazing in a conventional passing attack but they become less impressive when you factor in how he got them.

    Tommy, I know I’ve been beating the Vollmer drum for a few days here but I’d love to hear your thoughts about why he’s not getting more interest. He’s an above average starting tackle who can play the left and the right side, it seems to me that he’s exactly the kind of guy who can get a big contract in free agency, but I haven’t seen much buzz about him at all, from us or around the NFL. What gives?

  13. 13 T_S_O_P said at 12:56 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    What I don’t like about Smith and Austin is that they are so talked about, I can’t find Terence Garvin’s numbers from the same pro day. 🙂

  14. 14 Tyler Phillips said at 12:59 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I’d be more concerned with the number of short throws if there wasn’t proof that he could be accurate further downfield…but there is also plenty of tape that he can make “normal” NFL passes accurately. He is an accurate passer, but I’d like to see improved pocket presence from him. I wouldn’t be upset with this pick in the slightest

  15. 15 Buge Halls said at 3:33 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Go to the link Tommy put in the story. Smith has a 44% completion rate over 20 yards. That shows how bad he is at the long ball and why he only averaged 4.6 yards per completion.

  16. 16 Aleandro green said at 12:59 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    although he did throw an incredible about of short passes isnt one of the knocks on vick his inability to get ball to his play makers? it seems like way smith plays hes always trying to ball into the hands of his play makers

  17. 17 Lukekelly65 said at 2:20 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    that is one of the issues Vick has but if your just looking for a QB who can get the ball to your playmakers (game manger) you can find that later in the draft at pick number 4 your looking for a guy who is a playmaker

    Like austinfan said he reminds me of Alex Smith

  18. 18 parke longaker said at 1:02 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I see Geno’s ceiling as a mediocre starter and floor as a perennial camp body. I don’t want to draft him before the third at the highest.

  19. 19 Paradox_What? said at 1:06 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    The video itself looks impressive, but I have no idea what most QBs look like at a scripted Pro Day. Tommy, can you provide some perspective how Geno’s Pro Day performance stacks against Pro Days of other first round quarterbacks? Thanks in advance.

  20. 20 austinfan said at 1:06 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    My problem with Geno is he disappeared against the better defenses he faced, , on a team where most of his throws are to Austin and Bailey. He runs up great numbers against weak defenses that can’t tackle, and doesn’t make mistakes – but not against better (and I don’t mean great) college defenses. He put up great numbers against bad defenses both years, padding his stats.

    Pass defense rating (YPA/QB rating)

    His first five games: 166 204 1996 24-0
    but we’re talking Marshall, James Madison, Baylor and Texas – Maryland (45/65) was the only respectable defense in that group.
    last eight games: 199 309 2202 64.4% 7.1 18-6
    K-State (45/43), Syracuse (90/94), Oklahoma (26/12), TCU (29/26), Texas Tech (45/54).

    In 2011 he struggled to put up points against LSU (3/3), Cincinnati (56/44), Pittsburgh (45/52) and Syracuse (83/84).

    He looked great against Clemson (74/74) in his bowl game.

    Rutgers (17/5), Louisville (56/60), Connecticut (90/76), South Florida (37/41), Maryland (87/92) where the other major schools on the 2011 schedule.

    Point is he played relative few games against top 20 pass defenses, and the better the defense, the more conservatively he played. I suspect he lacks confidence as the windows get smaller and the game gets faster, a bad sign for the NFL. The good news is he doesn’t force bad throws, the bad news is he doesn’t make plays against good defenses.

  21. 21 austinfan said at 2:05 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I was trying to figure out which pro QB he resembles, then it hit me – Alex Smith.

  22. 22 A_T_G said at 2:29 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    …who was drafted first overall. I hope we go another direction too, but clearly teams can justify an Alex Smith type with a high pick.

  23. 23 Phils Goodman said at 2:38 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Alex Smith is a good QB now.

  24. 24 austinfan said at 5:12 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    And worthy of an early 2nd rd pick.

  25. 25 Phils Goodman said at 8:16 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    At age 29 with two (more expensive) years of team control.

  26. 26 Phils Goodman said at 2:33 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I don’t see how the LSU game could go in the negative column from a prospect angle. I am going to repost my response from awhile ago when you argued that Geno gets exposed vs “top 50” pass defenses:

    Geno played against 7 “top 50” pass defenses in the last two years (LSU, Rutgers, Clemson, Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Oklahoma). Here are his lines from those games:

    Geno Smith 2011

    LSU 38-65-463-2-2
    Rutgers 20-31-218-2-0
    Clemson 32-43-407-6-0

    Geno Smith 2012

    Maryland 30-43-338-3-0
    Texas 25-35-268-4-0
    Texas Tech 30-56-278-1-0
    Oklahoma 20-35-320-4-2

    Those 7 games come out to a sparkling NCAA QB rating of 147.8 and an NFL rating of 105.3. The total line is 195-308 for 2,292 yards, 23 TD and 4 INT. That’s 327 yards per game on 7.4 yards per attempt, 63% completion. TD% is 7.5%, 1.3% INT.

    Very impressive numbers in my opinion, considering the quality of competition.

    Anecdotally, Geno Smith completely held his own against one of the most talented defenses in HISTORY (2011 LSU Tigers), throwing for 463 yards. It wasn’t the prettiest game, but I think he showed a lot of “mental toughness” throwing into the teeth of that defense 65 times and not looking one bit intimidated.

    I would be willing to bet a lot of good NFL starters don’t pass the “top 50 test” with such flying statistical colors, but my intrigue about Smith as a prospect goes beyond the numbers. I wouldn’t stump for Case Keenum or Brandon Weeden this way no matter how good their numbers were.

  27. 27 austinfan said at 3:10 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    First, Clemson wasn’t a top 50 pass defense by any stretch of the imagination. Texas in 2012 was one of the worst defenses in college football.

    The best pass defenses he’s faced the last two years (combination of YPA allowed/opposing QB rating):

    K-State (45/43), Oklahoma (26/12), TCU (29/26), Texas Tech (45/54).

    In 2011:
    LSU (3/3), Rutgers (17/5), South Florida (37/41) and Pittsburgh (45/52).

    Geno Smith 2011:

    LSU 38-65-463-2-2
    Rutgers 20-31-218-2-0
    South Florida 23-35-237-0-2
    Pittsburgh 22-31-244-1-0

    Geno Smith 2012:

    Texas Tech 30-56-278-1-0
    Oklahoma 20-35-320-4-2
    K-State 21-32-143-1-2
    TCU 32-54-260-3-1

    TOTAL 206-339-2163 60.8% 6.4 14-9

    Out of those 8 teams, only three had top 20 pass defenses.

  28. 28 Phils Goodman said at 8:19 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I was going by yards because that’s what I could find on sports-reference. But it’s better to have team efficiency stats too. Where’d you get those?

  29. 29 austinfan said at 8:24 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    You can search by team, or player which will give you the team roster then the link to the player. So you can get sortable team stats, and player game log stats as well.

    Sweet site.

  30. 30 Phils Goodman said at 8:33 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Thanks, it’s now bookmarked.
    is a good one for college football stats analysis. It’s a bit dormant now, I think because the writer got picked up by The Sideline View. Some good Artie’s the last couple months, though.

  31. 31 Arby1 said at 2:41 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Did you see his bowl game against Syracuse? I thought he looked awful.

  32. 32 Michael Winter Cho said at 7:24 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    “The good news is he doesn’t force bad throws, the bad news is he doesn’t make plays against good defenses.”

    Geno McSmith?

  33. 33 deg0ey said at 1:27 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Hmm. I don’t think he’s great by any means, but I think he’s got a chance to be a good player.

    If KC, JAX and OAK make Joeckel, Jordan and Fisher the top-three picks, and Howie can’t find anyone to trade back with, I think Smith might have to be the pick. Whoever you take is a reach and if you’re gonna reach it may as well be for a QB that has a chance of making an instant impact.

  34. 34 Neil said at 1:44 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Well, the problem with thinking may as well go for a QB if any pick was going to be a reach is that messing up an early pick on a QB is by itself a borderline firable offense. Besides, in your scenario, a pick like Milliner wouldn’t be a reach except in that Milliner wouldn’t have sniffed 4 in the last two drafts. I would say the same for Floyd and Werner; though Werner is very intriguing even if we have a logjam where he would play, and I’m not sure about fit. I think there is better value at positions it is less catastrophic to miss on regardless of the three players taken before us.

  35. 35 Neil said at 1:49 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Another way of looking at this. I look at Smith and I see good starter as a realistic assessment of his ceiling. I look at Werner and I see impact pass rusher. You don’t pass up a possible impact player for a good quarterback who is going to preclude any future moves for a great one.

  36. 36 ACViking said at 1:56 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Re: Smith’s Pro Day

    Footnote to T-Law’s post.

    In attendance for the Eagles was Tom Donahoe . . . who, as GM of the Bills, traded back into the 1st Rd of the 2004 draft to select Tulane QB JP Losman at Pick No. 22.

    Losman started a total of 33 games in 5 years with the Bills.

    I’m not sure what to make of Donohoe being the guy whom the Birds sent to GS’s pro-day . . . except that the Eagles brain-trust had likely already decided what they think of him.

  37. 37 ACViking said at 2:24 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Austinfan . . .

    You want a comparison for Geno?

    JP Losman’s not a bad one.

  38. 38 holeplug said at 2:38 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    eh not really. Losman couldn’t even complete 60% of his passes his Jr and Sr year playing in Conf USA. Geno’s last two years blow Losman’s away from a production standpoint.

  39. 39 ACViking said at 7:33 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Based on your logic, Johnny Unitas, Terry Bradshaw, and Roger Staubach don’t compare to Geno Smith — because they weren’t nearly as productive.

    Offenses in college football were not even remotely the same 10-12 years ago as they are now.

    In 2003 — Losman’s senior season — Tulane averaged about 35 pass attempts per game and 33 rushing attempts per game.

    Losman attempted 422 pases his senior year. Smith attempted 518 — almost 100 more chances in an era that’s all about passing.

    Losman’s Tulane team was coached by a guy named Chris Scelfo.

    Scelfo learned the game from former UGeorgia/Marshall head coach Jim Donnan.

    Donnan developed his philosophy at U-Oklahoma under Barry Switzer.

    I don’t consider Switzer much of a passing QB.

    Nor was Donnon.

    Or Scelfo.

    Losman’s team ran a balanced offense. Tulane’s HB was Mewelde Moore (still in the NFL I think).

    I don’t think it’s fair to compare Losman to Smith based solely on completion percentages or “production” when Tulane wasn’t calling 50% of the pass plays either as screens or 1-5 yards. Or using a pre-spread offense under a head coach who believed in running the ball.

    All I’m just talking about was perceived talent at draft time based on the scheme’s then being used.

  40. 40 holeplug said at 11:02 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I don’t think you’d learn much comparing Geno’s stats to Unitas,Bradshaw, and Staubach. Those guys played 50 years ago and the game was more run based then. If you really wanted to you could by adjusting for era but its a lot harder to adjust for era in football than baseball where its easy to compare Babe Ruth to Barry Bonds.

    I’d probably look at guys that also played in the air raid offense that were 1st round picks to compare to Geno first. Tim Couch,Sam Bradford, and Brandon Weeden I know all did off the top of my head. None of those guys really panned out either. Couch was a huge bust, Bradford isn’t anything special and Weeden was godawful last year so that would worry me if I was a team looking to use a 1st round pick on Geno. The air raid guys have had some trouble adjusting to the NFL game in the past.

  41. 41 parke longaker said at 5:59 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I don’t Losman’s a good comparison either, but from an emotional standpoint. I saw multiple Losman interviews before his draft and he came off as an insecure, obnoxious punk in all of them.

  42. 42 ACViking said at 7:33 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I agree with all that.

  43. 43 micksick said at 2:02 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    yeah the lack of downfield throws is a big concern.

    id like us to trade up from our 2nd and draft tavon, and thats coming from a guy who wants a big WR real bad.. lol.. austin is a human joystick, and i dont see desean being used in the backfield like austin can, desean is too long and lean, austin is more compact.

  44. 44 CalSFro said at 2:04 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I think Geno’s propensity for short and intermediate stuff and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers is exactly what Chip wants out of his QB. But I think the biggest knock against Geno, and the reason he won’t be an Eagle, is that he’s going to require a high level investment, ie; the fourth overall pick. And Chip and Howie know you can absolutely get a guy who will be smart and distribute the ball and act as a funnel to your playmakers without that high of an investment.

    Now, if we could get Geno in the mid second? I think he’d be the pick in an instant.

    The QB position is important, and it will always be important in the NFL. But to the extent that it can and will happen…I see Chip’s system as de-emphasizing the QB position. You don’t need Mike Vick or Andrew Luck to take the team on his back and will them to victory. You need Russell Wilson, who, while a good to great QB already, is not a phenomenal athlete.

    His biggest asset is his intelligence. He makes good decisions, leans on his running game, runs when he needs to, get’s down when he needs to and get’s the ball into the hands of his playmakers.

    On a side note…I’ve heard rumblings that Geno had a really bad interview. Can you corroborate, Tommy?

  45. 45 Daniel Richwine said at 2:19 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Not sure what Chip wants in his QB. if he wants Geno, I am going to assume he knows what he’s doing

  46. 46 Flyin said at 2:30 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Here is the first comment from the recent Geno Smith post at BGN…

    “Rumor is that he had a horrible interview. Threw Holgo under the bus and
    the team didn’t like that, he’s not going to be the pick.” – KeepSwinging

    Have you heard any rumblings regarding Geno’s interview?

  47. 47 Anders said at 3:16 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    KeepSwinging got his sources so thats a big nono in any interview imo

  48. 48 shah8 said at 6:32 PM on March 17th, 2013:


  49. 49 Phils Goodman said at 2:37 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Re: screen passes

    You’re going to get that with any QB in the Holgorsen Air Raid. You’re not drafting the Air Raid or Geno Smith’s stat line. You’re drafting Geno Smith for his abilities. Any evaluation has to begin with how Geno’s skills fit into the offense.

  50. 50 CalSFro said at 2:57 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I disagree with the “head” aspect of that evaluation. As has been pointed out, he put up amazing numbers against mediocre competition, then put up mediocre numbers against good competition.

    I’d say at the very least you need your QB to be “clutch”, abstract though that term may be. He doesn’t seem to bear down when the situation calls for it. In fact, it seems that he goes the other way.

  51. 51 BreakinAnklez said at 4:11 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Over 1,500 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs and 57% in WVU’s 6 losses. The D didn’t give up less than 38 pts. This whole year, every game he knows he needs to score 40+ to win. To sit here and blame Geno for that is ridiculous. He wasn’t lights out, but I wouldn’t day he was mediocre at best..

  52. 52 Allen3000 said at 2:47 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I don’t take issue with your assessment of Geno Smith. Admittedly, I don’t have much confidence in my ability to accurately evaluate college QB’s and predict how they will perform at the next level. What I do question/take issue with is the notion that missing on Geno Smith is any worse than missing on a OL, OLB, etc. that we may select with the 4th overall pick. Why would it be so much more detrimental to our team’s future than say swinging and missing on a guy like Dion Jordan or Dee Milliner?
    No longer are teams held hostage by rookie contracts. You can afford to miss on a prospect (though it’s not something you ever want to have happen with a top 5 pick). If Joeckel, Fisher, and Dion Jordan are gone by pick#4 and Chip feels strongly about Geno, then I won’t take issue with the pick. As you alluded to before, there are no slam dunk legit top 5 picks in this year’s draft. There’s a lot of value, but too many questions with the elite prospects at the top. I’m not sure anybody will truly feel safe and estatic with our #4 pick – regardless of who it is.

  53. 53 CalSFro said at 2:53 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I agree with you completely that missing on a pick in the top 10 no longer handcuffs you as a franchise. I think whoever we pick this year will make about $4 million a year over their deal. That’s not bad, especially if you miss with the pick or hit a homerun.

    But in no way do I see this as an argument to draft Geno Smith, or that you can “afford to miss on a prospect”. His ceiling’s not high enough for pick 4, and if we did draft him, and he turns into a bust, it will come with a massive opportunity cost.

  54. 54 Allen3000 said at 3:19 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Yeah, like I said, I’m not sold on any of the QBs. Last year, I was convinced that Luck, RGIII, and Wilson would be legit starters. I wasn’t let down. This year, I’m still not sold on Geno (though I do feel he has potential and am a bit intrigued by him – just very apprehensive about taking him at 4). Taking him at 4 would be a huge gamble imo. I would view the pick with some cautious optimism though as it would indicate Kelly’s faith in Geno to be a franchise QB.

    Again, my point was really to try and understand why missing on a QB is any worse than missing on any other position. Either way, a bust is a bust and will ultimately be a detriment to our team’s success. We’ve seen guys who were pegged as full proof can’t miss prospects like Aaron Curry (6 years $60 million) completely flop in the NFL. 4 years later and Seattle is doing just fine without him. I don’t want to miss on a prospect either, I just don’t see how missing on a qb is worse than missing on any other position.
    And you’re dead on about the $. This year, Nnamdi will cost us about the same as a our #4 pick. Crazy, but true.

  55. 55 Neil said at 3:13 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    The biggest thing is opportunity cost still, even if not financial. You only need one quarterback in a way you don’t need one OLB, CB or OT. Drafting a Dion Jordan doesn’t lead to passing on a future highestrated player with a similar skill set because we can field two of those guys. This means that in the first few years while we’re feeling out what a Dion Jordan can do in the NFL, we can be spending 1stround resources (if future draft scenarios happen to work out that way) on a potential replacement for him that we expect to be an impact player in good conscience because even if Jordan works out the other guy will have a place in the lineup as the other OLB.

    With QB, if one is drafted as early as 4 it is because we expect him to be a successful starter for the next decade at least, and we can only have one of those. This means that for at least three years while we feel him out at the NFL level we can only pass on starting QBs that fall to our high draft picks because we already have our one guy, and supposedly we still believe in him. You don’t give up on a QB before three years out unless you deserve to be fired for your drafting prowess. And if Geno is a failure, if he’s consistently bad for at least three years, QB is so critical to a team’s success that that’s three miserable seasons for the fans, multiple quarterbacks who have ended up being successful that we passed on with our high 1st and 2ndround picks because we handed the torch to Geno. But if we pass on Geno, Nick Foles might turn out to be a good starter too, and if he doesn’t pan out we go for a prospect with a lot more going for him after one miserable season next year. Trade up if you have to.

  56. 56 eagleizeit said at 3:04 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I sure hope they don’t make the huge mistake of drafting Geno. EJ Manuel has a lot more upside, tough, smart, coachable, talented and a winner. We could get him at the end of the 1st beginning of the 2nd and give him a couple years to develop like most of the great ones needed.

  57. 57 Malcolm Jones said at 3:10 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    DOug Baldwin was the mystery man Irsay spoke of I think, Seahawks

  58. 58 xeynon said at 4:19 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    I would be extremely disappointed if Smith is the pick. I don’t see him as anything more than a middling starter at best and I think Foles can give us that without costing us a chance to acquire another important long term piece (e.g. a franchise left tackle).

  59. 59 Bill Muller said at 4:21 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Hey Tommy,Question about Mike Vick,How will his being left handed affect Chip Kellys ability to install whatever version of his read option he does eventually install

  60. 60 Iskar36 said at 5:46 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Lol, you’ve been hoping for an answer to this question for awhile.

  61. 61 GermanEagle said at 5:53 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Lol this!

  62. 62 Bill Muller said at 7:32 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    lol I think its a valid question and I am really interested in the answer

  63. 63 Mac said at 4:53 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Gee no Smith…

  64. 64 GermanEagle said at 5:53 PM on March 17th, 2013:


  65. 65 J. Brett said at 5:00 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Whoa, whoa, whoa…. QB guru Chris Weinke?

  66. 66 shah8 said at 6:18 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Smith is basically at about Matt Ryan’s level. I don’t worry about the footwork so much as I worry about long releases. It’s not Byron Leftwich long, but it is around where Foles is. And Byron Leftwich can still be used as a capable starter (when he was young, and presumably more free from injury than he turned out to be) if coaches acknowledge that he can’t be used for any predominantly short stuff passing games. He had a rocket for an arm. Smith is only a smidge better than Luck, in the sense that I think he can actually throw a deep out more safely.

    If anything, I think KC could be beginning to regret their moves.

    As for Eagles drafting him? I think that’s a real probability because it undercuts the cost of a successful Vick season. I also think that the brain trust realizes that chances to get a real starter on rookie contracts don’t come very often, and that the Eagles are unlikely to be as bad next year as they were this year, due to injuries. I don’t think that the Eagles will draft him because I think either the Jags get him or someone moves up to #2 or #3 to get him. I don’t think the Eagles will trade up to affirmatively get Smith, but I do think the odds are that they will draft him if he drops.

  67. 67 dislikedisqus said at 8:29 PM on March 17th, 2013:

    Agree 100% with this. Thanks.

  68. 68 Eagles Wake-Up Call: Star Lotulelei To Visit Birds - Birds 24/7 said at 6:31 AM on March 21st, 2013:

    […] Lawlor over at Iggles Blitz doesn’t see the Eagles taking Geno Smith with the fourth […]

  69. 69 netflix said at 2:15 PM on March 30th, 2013:


    Thank you for sharing outstanding info. Your web-site is exceptionally cool. I am thrilled by the details that you have on this web locate. It exposes how well you view this subject. Bookmarked this web page, will be as long as rearward made use of for…