Eagles Notebook
Posted: April 18th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 137 Comments »Lots of little topics to get to today.
Daniel Jeremiah (MoveTheSticks) said on Twitter last night that he believes the Jaguars will take LB Dion Jordan at #2. I say…NOOO!!! Jordan is the player I’m most comfortable with. It does make sense that the Jags could go for him. Gus Bradley had speed rushers in Seattle and they did a great job for him. Jordan is the best speed rusher in this draft.
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Lane Johnson thinks he’ll be an Eagle. EJ Manuel thinks he’ll be an Eagle. Peter King hears a lot about Star Lotulelei and the Eagles. Jeremiah and Lance Zierlein heard recently to pencil in Geno Smith to the Eagles.
Hmm. Maybe Howie Roseman is getting pretty good at this smokescreen stuff. Nobody seems to know exactly what the team will do and there are lots of rumors out there.
If Jordan is off the board…I want us to trade back.
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Paul Domowitch wrote an excellent column on Danny Watkins. Danny could be the poster boy for the Chip Kelly effect. Danny seems happy and excited by the new staff and new way of doing things. What we don’t know is if that enthusiasm will translate to better play. Danny does have good NFL ability. If he can bounce back and solidify RG, Todd can stay at RT and we can have a veteran OL. The team can’t count on this, but Danny’s performance in the mini-camp could affect how aggressive they are in getting an OT. I still see them going for one in the first 3 to 4 rounds.
A lesser person than me would point out the irony of Domo referring to Howard Mudd as an “old man”. Thankfully, I’ve got too much respect for my elders and I won’t do that.
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Some people were bothered by the talk of Michael Vick saying the Eagles were his team and that the QB spot was his job.
What do you want him to say? QB is the team leader. You must be bold and aggressive. Vick has started most of the past 3 seasons. There is every reason for him to feel it is his job. I don’t want Vick saying “I hope I can play well”. I need him to think he will play well, will be “the man” and will have a good year.
Kevin Kolb loved Michael Vick. Everything I’ve heard is that Nick Foles likes him very much as well. Vick competed with these guys for the job, but didn’t rub anyone the wrong way. There has been no locker room drama. Vick remains popular with his teammates because he carries himself the right way when he’s with them.
I will have a problem if Vick starts to play like crap and Foles is clearly better and then Vick is going on about the Eagles being his team. That’s when you have someone that can become a problem. Last year Vick accepted his “demotion” with grace. I have no character concerns with him. My worry with Vick…turnovers. He can say what he wants as long as he holds onto the ball and throws it only to the guys in green.
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I still don’t believe Geno Smith will be an Eagle. I just don’t think Chip will see him as a QB to draft early and build around.
I hope the Eagles avoid EJ Manuel, but I cannot say with any confidence that the Eagles don’t like him. They very well might.
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Pat Summerall died the other day.
This was very sad for me to hear. Football was my third love growing up. I was evenly split between the NBA and MLB. I worshiped Dr. J and the Sixers. I was a huge Orioles fan. As the 80’s started I began to watch more of the NFL and CBS broadcast team of Summerall and John Madden became the foundation for my Sundays.
I grew up in NC. There was no NFL team here. We got the game of the week, which means we got Madden and Summerall. And that was truly a blessing. Summerall was a former player. He didn’t go to school to learn how to do games. He was just himself. That gave him a smooth, natural style. Madden was himself too, and that was completely different. Summerall was the set-up man and Madden was the comedian.
I know many of you think of Madden and the way he was the last 10 years. That was forced and awkward at times. He was very different back in the old days. Madden was fresh. He would say and do strange things because they felt right, not because they were part of his act and some producer wanted him to say them.
I wouldn’t be nearly the football fan that I am today without Summerall and Madden. Not only did they entertain me, they taught me the game of football. Madden had all sorts of wisdom to share. Summerall would offer his bits too, but his real value was in asking the right questions to Madden and keeping the conversation going. Kids today list to Buck and Aikman. Ugh. How the heck is that duo supposed to entertain or enlighten anyone?
One of my favorite Summerall things is that he would use the phrase “safety-men”. He would run through the front seven of the Eagles and then say that Wes Hopkins and Andre Waters were the safety men. I loved that. So cool.
Thank you Pat, for being a great broadcaster and helping me to love the game of football.
_
RIP, Pat. He was a professional and a gentleman in a field increasingly dominated by entertainers and circus clowns.
Yes, he surely was a gentleman and had the job of reigning in whoever was doing the color commentary which he always did with an understated dignity and class. Before he worked with Madden, he worked with former Eagle Tom Brookshier, who helped Pat with his alcoholism by getting him into the Betty Ford center. Sommerall later credited Brookie with saving his life.
Sunday, 4 o’clock, NFC East, Pat and John. That was the way to start a week off right.
Does anyone know specifics regarding the music Chip is playing at practice? Bands, songs, etc?
My sources tell me that in honor of Joselio Hanson, he plays MmmBop at least once per practice.
Does this mean he is playing Bee Gees in honor of Stew Bradley?
I hear that Cox and Wang are angling for 2 Live Crew.
Wang & Chung voted for “Everybody have fun tonight.”
I would love to see a Chip Kelly mix on Spotify.
I think the NY Times article said it’s just pop hip-hop and rock stuff. Nothing in particular.
If we stay at #4, how would you feel about taking Mingo? Bad value there?
There was a pretty interesting exchange between Kempski and Lawlor on Mingus. Kempski thought it would be a reach for him to go to us, out of the question. But apparently Mingus is one of the if not the best speed rusher in the draft or something to that effect. So it’s not preposterous if that is what the coaches are looking for/ someone else takes Jordan. Near as I can gather, Tommy would be ok with it if the coaches really liked him, but he would prefer Jordan.
Mingus??
hahaha just noticed I did that, multiple times
The Eagles desperately need a legendary jazz bassist. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__OSyznVDOY
It’s been a glaring need for YEARS….ever since Concrete Charlie retired.
Is that a hybrid of Margus Hunt and Barkevious Mingo? If so I want him.
The Football Outsiders guys are really high on Mingo, from the standpoint of both metrics (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/sackseer-2013) and scouting (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-olbs-dion-jordan-and-barkevious-mingo).
I need to do a post on Mingo. He is possible.
The most interesting thing about this draft is that not only can the draft prognisticators not figure out what the Eagles are doing at #4… I don’t even know what I want to do at #4. Most drafts theres at least 1-2 guys that I absolutely love at our pick (like Fletcher Cox and Kuechley last year) but this year, I can’t make up my mind what I want the most. Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Dion Jordan, Star, Tavon Austin, the list goes on and I have no idea who I’d prefer over the other.
The only guy I absolutely love this year is Cyprien, but I don’t think we’ll be able to get him because he’s not good value at #4 but probably wont be there at our second rounder.
I fell the exact same way. Last year I wanted RG3, Cox and Kuechly, the rest of the top players was kinda meh for me (not because they was bad players, but the above 3 was the players I really wanted). This draft I got like 10 guys from the first round that I want.
I know what you mean about a lot of options. There are 3 guys that I want/love: Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher. To me, Joeckel and Fisher are the 2 top prospects and I have a hard time giving up what i think are 2 players who will become franchise LTs. Jordan is the best pass rusher for our situation, I love his athleticism and i think he can be a 3 down player for us for a long time. Plus, the holy trinity, passers, passblockers and pass rushers, and I dont like any of the passers in this draft.
If neither of the 3 is there, I would rather trade back. Not because I don’t like the next group, but because i like so many of them. I would “settle” for the last best remaining player in a large group including Star L, S.Floyd, Warmack, J.Cooper, L.Johnson, T.Austin, Ansah, Vaccaro and Milliner if we got some extra picks, because I don’t really see it being a loss giving up any of the players for another if we get some picks in return.
Lane Johnson is a great prospect for Kelly’s system. Might even end up better than Fisher or Joeckel for us.
I Agree, he MIGHT end up being better. I would personally be very shocked if Joeckel and Fisher doesnt end up being at least capable starters, and i think both of them end up VERY good. I actually prefer Fisher over Joeckel for the same reason, i think Fisher has a little bigger upside in terms of a little better frame and athleticism. Lane Johnson is a little more of a wager for me, i think he could end up being very good aswell and if everything clicks he might be Jason Peters dominant, since he has the same kind of athleticism. But i also give him a lower percentage of panning out than Fisher and Joeckel, and in that case i think Terron Armstead or maybe Kyle Long might end up being better value in the 2nd round.
Again i would not be against selecting Johnson, but i would rather trade down with the Cards, Bills, Phins and gamble on where he goes, because i also like the other players.
Sure I’d like to trade back no matter who is there if there is an opportunity but it could be difficult.
As you said you wouldn’t be against taking him and I agree with that. I like all 3 OTs but would still move back given the right compensation.
Hey Tommy, got a draft-related question for you. While much of our recent talk has been discussed about trading down, do you think the Eagles would consider trading up to #2?
why would they do that?
I don’t mean to infer that I want or would want them to do that; it’s just another possibility to look at from another angle.
A lot of people have the Jags taking Dion Jordan and simultaneously think we’re madly in love with Dion Jordan
Just thought about that today. If they covet Jordan, maybe. I don’t see it as likely. Too many holes/needs.
I want to trade back regardless of who is available at 4. I will be most happy if they could trade back to 10 or so and pick up a 2nd and change and take the BPA. Not excited about any prospect at #4.
It is starting to seem pretty clear that the top 3 picks will likely be:
1. Luke Joeckel (KC)
2. Dion Jordan (JAX)
3. Shariff Floyd (OAK)
What will they do if they can’t then trade down from 4 and don’t want a tackle?
#4 seems like it is too early for Star also.
Don’t know why they wouldn’t want a tackle but if that’s true I’d love to have Ziggy, Star, or Tavon.
I just have a feeling that they aren’t going to want to displace Watkins this year. It seems like Stoutland really likes him.
Possible, but Watkins could beat out Todd for RG if he’s so good.
I’m just not sure they would see that as a good use of resources.
This would be nice. Both Johnson and Geno are in the board, which makes selling our pick much easier. That would be ideal in my eyes.
Fisher
Fisher is a tackle. What if they don’t want a tackle?
Star or Milliner
Millner? doubt we are in the business of drafting solid #2 corners, with bad ball skills, and no special teams ability…at #4
I don’t like Vick talking about how its his team because its not. He was lucky to keep his job here in Philly and far too often in the past he’s seemed to border on delusional rather than being confident (beginning of a dynasty anyone?) I’d much rather he said something like “I’ve got to fight to show that I belong as the leader of this team” or somesuch. All that being said it doesn’t much matter what he says because if he doesn’t play better than the other guys, theres no precedent in place that says he has to be out there at all.
It isn’t Vick’s team. But you want him to think it is. Same with Foles. And Dixon. You don’t want the QB to be a timid soul.
Oi yoi yoi, read all this in the last post. hope this thread stops here. I think he must be a good guy in the locker room. A small thing that comes to mind is him telling Vinny Curry, he is no longer a fan.
according to adam carriker, eagles playing redskins early mnf week 1.
We’ve been waiting a long time and they’re going to make us wait another whole day…
I think we’re building a tweener defense… 3 guys up front that can play either 1 gap or 2 gap. Sometimes penetrating, sometimes in the read-and-react. If you have those 3 guys you would have a lot of freedom to do whatever you wanted to defensively.
I agree with this. Soap has definitely lined up at the 0 and the 1.
Agreed, it seems like a Chip type philosophy. Why make a choice of what you think will be best for a season, when you could make it on a game by game basis, or down by down basis. No point in limiting yourself without a good reason.
Welcome to the Land of Tweeners. Sounds like a perverted dream of Jimmy Bama’s.
Ive recently been thinking that we are going to trade back, but in the second round. Ive had the feeling that we showed interest in Smith and Manuel to make teams think we are going to take a QB early. When we pass on Smith in round 1, that is going to make teams think that we are sure to take Manuel in round 2, and that is when we are going to strike a deal. In the end, we dont end up with either of those 2 QBs. Maybe Matt Scott a little bit later on.
Now if Jordan is gone, then I can see us trading back in the first.
If we trade back to a later first round pick gaining an extra 2nd or 3rd, and then trade back from our current second round selection, we will end up with a boat load of picks in rounds 2-4 which would be ideal.
Re: Smokescreening
T-Law:
Is there any team that’s not doing a good job of misdirection?
Compare Oakland and Eagles.
The Raiders would like to trade back for picks (so some have said). But GM McKenzie doesn’t get the value they want, who will McKenzie take? And do the Raiders really want to trade back?
The Eagles . . . if they want Jordon but the Jags take him, and the Birds try to trade down but run into the same trouble as Oakland, do we have any more of a clue as to whom the Eagles would draft than whom the Raiders would select?
So I come back to my question . . . is there any team at this point who’s not doing a great job of smokescreening?
It used to be you could count on teams like the Jets and Raiders to telegraph their desires but even they have gotten more sophisticated. I always think the Cowboys don’t do a great job because of their boastful, owner/GM, but that’s about it these days.
On that note, isn’t “Dion Jordan to JAX” a potentially smart smokescreen by the Jags? They could be hoping the Eagles (or another team) trade up from 4. Hopefully we don’t oblige, but it’s a smart rumor to get out there, especially if they feel people don’t want Geno enough to trade up for him…
Jeremiah has speculated this as a good possibility for weeks.
That it’s a smokescreen? Or just in his mock?
I mean, he’s never been wrong before, so…
He talked about Eagles taking Jordan and then came out with a mock with Jaguars taking him. Don’t know exactly when it was but he’s linked Jaguars and Jordan as a possibility for a long while. Not saying he had info either, just saying he saw it happening for a long time.
I don’t know where I stand with Daniel Jeremiah — or the other way around: I assume I’m a big hit with him.
He obviously has personal access to info. that we don’t have, but watching him on NFL Network he sometimes seems inflexible with his mock. For example, he’s been championing Geno Smith to the Eagles with almost unequivocal certainty for the last week (with ITYS aplomb on Twitter)… but that pick doesn’t feel right at all for this team. Maybe he’s right, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he suddenly changes that pick in his mock.
This isn’t to say that he’s necessarily wrong with Jordan and the Jags (there’s your 1950’s Motown group!). I’m just saying I question his conviction with these prognostications.
totally agree….come draft time, I would rather listen to a guy, who just watches tape on prospects and comes up with his own conclusions, rather than Listen to experts who are passing along inside info 99% of which is usually crap.
Love how some people think they are sooo connected, that people within the organization are actually telling them the truth…as if ANYONE is ever going to tip thier hand regaurding draft plans
True. But Jordan makes so much sense for that team in every way.
A lot of people make so much sense for that team.
With Gus Bradley in the fold and no real in-house solution for LEO, I feel like it is too obvious.
Okay.
You don’t agree? I’m sure they’d love to trade down and get more picks, but I think they would be thrilled with Jordan.
I just have trouble writing off “Jordan to the Jags” as set in stone. What I mean to say is that they have a lot of needs, and even though Jordan fits the description of a LEO in Gus Bradley’s defense, they don’t have a guy that fits the description of a QB, Tackle, Cornerback, etc.
Again, all I’m questioning is the certainty with which many seem to be sending Dion Jordan to Jacksonville at #2.
Per Mac’s scenario up above (where KC takes Fisher at #1), you’d have to think Jacksonville would be tempted to take Joeckel or at least trade down (and possibly lose Jordan).
How would you handicap the odds of KC not taking Joeckel?
Hmm, I don’t know. I’m sure they’d love to trade out, but that’s not gonna happen.
With Reid in town, and the Chiefs shopping Branden Albert (most likely to the Dolphins for a 2nd rounder), it does seem highly likely that they’ll take a tackle.
So then it comes down to Joeckel, Fisher… or even Lane Johnson in a crazy move. I think lots of football people have Joeckel and Fisher even, or at least with grades that are interchangeable (i.e., “more polished now” vs. “slightly higher possible upside”). In effect, some have them as a pick ’em, so it comes down to how do the Chiefs value them, which we don’t know. All of that said, I’d have to put it at 50/50.
When your QB is Gabbert, I dont think you can Rule out Geno at #2. Especially since EJ probably wont last til round 2, and thier is a good chance of the Bills outdueling them for Nassib(trade up)…
Im also starting to think that the Jag rumors are just them trying to get us to give up extra picks, while they only move down two spots…
As a SAM, Dion would the guy…But for Leo, I have to think Mingo and Ziggy would get heavy consideration
Mingo’s a better fit and has higher upside as a leo. They don’t need a guy with coverage skills for that position.
Part of using a smokescreen is leaking reports to the media. I’ve not heard or read much about the Raiders. You must use the media. You must use sources to get your message out there.
I don’t know if the Raiders have done a good job of that or if the media just doesn’t care.
The Chiefs have tried to do a lot of confusing things, but we know they are desperate to trade back so no one takes anything they do seriously.
Even post-Davis, the Raiders seem to be an outlier. They do things differently, but to no good effect.
The Chiefs should want to trade down, since any of the 3 stud OTs would be a good pick for them. That’s why “flashing” Dion is their best move, to tempt the Jags and Eagles to trade up. “Flashing” Joeckel or Geno does very little to get teams to want to move up.
I really think the Raiders will go for Floyd.
For those in the Tavon Austin camp, talking with a caller, Spadaro was asked how far would the Eagles be willing to move back in the draft and he said, “13, 14, maybe 15.” The caller then asked about if Austin would be a target there and Spadaro said, “I would be shocked.”
I don’t think that rules Austin out by any means, but I just thought it was an interesting comment from Spadaro.
I’m in the Austin camp. Did you get the sense that Spadaro’s “I would be shocked” was a reflection of what he thinks the Eagles’ interest is, or because he’d be shocked he was there at 13, 14, 15?
I think Austin’s going to go 7 – 12.
The comment was specific about the Eagles drafting him. Just to be clear though, it wasn’t a statement saying the Eagles did not like Austin or anything like that. It very easily (likely) could be his own opinion and assessment of Eagles needs and how Austin would fit in, and it could have nothing to do with what he is hearing internally. Still, I thought it was an interesting remark. If the Eagles were interested and had given Spads any indication of that, I would expect him to say something more along the lines of a company line such as, “If he is the best player on the board, go get him, regardless of need” or something along those lines.
I would expect either the Eagles or Spadaro to keep their mouth shut if they wanted Austin.
Yes. Also possible that with the regime change, any communication Spadaro used to count on from the decision makers has changed.
I’ve heard him brag about how they knew about Kevin Kolb early, etc., but there’s a new sheriff in town…
His birthplace is philly so technically he wouldn’t be new… and not that many people are mocking him to the Eagles these days.
Yeah… didn’t he say something to the effect of “um, don’t we already have Desean Jackson?”
Which is interesting, because in many ways, they are different players (slot vs. deep, carrying ability, etc.). Again, as a resident of the Tavon Austin camp, I’d think he’d be more of a replacement for Avant than Jackson…
Also a few additional comments from Dave. All relatively obvious statements, but interesting to hear from Dave:
“I don’t believe they will take a QB at #4”
“I do believe they will be willing to trade back at #4”
“I think it is equally likely they pick an offensive player or defensive player.”
Watching some of the player interviews, one thing stands out: Les Bowen is a camera whore!
He keeps placing himself behind the player. Smart. In the Vick interview he looked like he was learning how to use his iPhone.
Wrong! Les is so handsome that the camera just finds him…as he stands directly behind the player being interviewed.
He’s the man…
And here he is futzing with the iPhone…
Lastly (and this is out of love), separated at birth?
Les and “Pops” from the Muppets?
I noticed that last year, thought the other reporters elbowed him to the back. He looks like one of those gnomes you see on someone’s lawn or garden.
Jeremiah had Jacksonville taking Jordan in a mock long ago.
Re-linking off of Tommy’s Eagles Blog, the Eagles Rewind comparison of Top 25 big boards is a fun, “Chutes ‘N’ Ladders” style visual representation of value…
http://eaglesrewind.com/2013/04/17/comparing-big-boards/
Also, oddly reminiscent of Radiohead’s “Hail to the Thief” album cover…
I agree it’s a job well done.
Great stuff
Say what you want about Vick, just about every teammate he’s had loves the man like a family member.
Glad to see you took the high road there with Domo.
And, “He can say what he wants as long as he holds onto the ball and throws it only to the guys in green.” That’s all well and good as long as we aren’t playing the Jets.
I knew some jerk would bring up the Jets. Jerk.
Besides everybody knows Mike Vick prefers to throw to packers when it comes to alternative shades of green.
Should’ve spiked that ball… argh.
Re: The 3-4 defense . . . the 4-3 defense . . . and the 53 defense.
I’ve written before the first NFL team to make the 3-4 its base defense was the old Houston Oilers in 1974 under then D-Coordinator Bum Phillips (father of Wade). Less than half way through the season, the Oilers traded 1973 1st-overall pick John Matuszak to the Chiefs for DT Curly Culp (short, stout, a Super Bowl winner, and an All American wrestler at AZ State). Then in the ’75 draft, Bum and the Oilers’ 1st Rd choice was Jackson State pass-rushing OLB Robert Brazile. Bum was very creative with his 3-4, using lots of 1-gap attacks and Under formations.
Now Bum was first to implement the 3-4 as an NFL team’s base defense.
But he wasn’t the first to use it.
The vanguard for the 3-4’s migration to the NFL was Miami Dolphins 1971 defense under the great D-Coordinator Bill Arnsparger.
Just before the start of the ’71 season, the Dolphins — at Arsparger’s urging — acquired former Duke All American OLB Bob Matheson from the Browns. He’d been the Brown’s 1st Rd pick in the ’67 draft. But Matheson never quite lived up to his 1st-Rd billing.
Matheson was a bit of ‘tweener, but pretty athletic.
So Arsparger used him as an OLB who could rush the passer, cover the TE, or drop into zone coverage.
An early version of Oregon’s Dion Jordon.
Matheson wore the number “53” with the Dolphins. So the TV media referred to Miami’s scheme, whenever Matheson was in the game in place of DT Bob Heinz, as “The 53 D.” [The Dolphins other DT, Manny Fernandez, slid over the center’s nose, with Matheson typically lined up over the TE.]
The Dolphins’ “53 D” was in reality . . . a 3-4 defense. But NFL teams hadn’t seen anything like the 3-4. (Buddy’s 46 Defense was named much the same way, after S Doug Plank who wore No. 46 because in that formation he played ILB.)
Anyway, Matheson and the “53 D” became an important part of the Dolphins’ defense — and for the next 3 seasons [’71, ’72, ’73], the Dolphins went to the SB with maybe the best defense in the NFL. (In ’74, the Steelers — in the midst of accumulating more talent than any other NFL team by far — began their run of 4 SB titles in 6 years.)
A note on the creator of the “53 D” — and how coaching connections can be so important on the personnel side.
Arnsparger began his coaching career at Miami U of Ohio — called “The Cradle of Coaches” — as a defensive assistant to Woody Hayes. When Hayes moved to Ohio State, so did Arnsparger. The Buckeyes, through Hayes entire tenure, ran a 3-4 defense; although back in the early ’50s it was called the Oklahoma defense with both OLBs at the LOS — making it more of a 5-2. Arnsparger joined the Baltimore Colts in 1964 when Don Shula became the HC. And he moved to the Dolphins with Shula after the ’69 season.
But in between Ohio State and the Colts, Arnsparger was an assistant coach for the great U-Kentucky HC Blanton Collier. Later, after Art Modell purchased the Cleveland Browns, Collier succeeded Paul Brown as Cleveland’s new HC.
And it was Collier — Arnsparger’s former mentor — who drafted Bob Matheson in ’67. Four years later, a phone call was made and a key trade completed.
TRIVIA: Two year’s earlier, the Dolphins fleeced the Browns by trading the 2nd overall pick — whom the Browns used to choose Purdue QB Mike Phipps — for future HOF WR “Bouncy” Paul Warfield. (Warfield was a RB at Ohio State; so when he arrived at the Browns training camp — with HOFer Jim Brown starting and fellow rookie and future HOFer RB Leroy Kelly also in the backfield — he was moved to WR by one Blanton Collier.
To replace Warfield, the Browns traded former U-Michigan All American RB Ron Johnson, a future All Pro, to the NYGiants for WR Homer Jones. And in maybe the last memorable play of his career, Homer Jones ran back the NY Jets 2nd-half kickoff in the first Monday Night Football telecast in 1970 for a TD.
Jones retired with the third-highest career YPC average at 22.3 — behind the great but troubled Warren Wells of the Raider.
So . . . the upshot here is that a player like Dion Jordon could be a big difference maker for the Eagles. He give that defense a LOT of flexibility — shades of “The 53 D”.
Let’s assume:
1. the rest of the league holds Andy’s feet to the fire and let’s him pick #1.
2. Andy follow’s T-law’s formula and drafts Fisher instead of Joeckel
How far can Joeckel fall before someone trades up for him? Would Jacksonville and Oakland pass on him? Do the Lions make a play to move up to 3 if he slides past Jacksonville? Heck, would the Lions make a play to move up to 4 if he falls that far and we can drop back and get an extra pick?
I think this could provide one of the more interesting top of the draft scenarios in a long time.
Good points. I think if Reid takes Fisher, Oakland’s phone heats up. This is where the Eagles unpredictability hurts them, in that Detroit, Miami, etc., could very well think we’ll take him at #4 and could therefore get a “better” deal from Oakland.
Also, (and to your point) I’m skeptical of Jordan to Jacksonville as a “lock” simply because of situations like this. Can the JAGS pass on Joeckel? I mean, they have trouble passing on anyone – hello!!!
There aren’t any highly rated punters to take instead?
If he falls to 4, would we pass on him?
I wouldn’t think so but it depends on how dumb teams get. If someone offers a 2014 #1 they are trading back for sure.
Tommy,
When I listen to baseball scouting-media types, I often hear them say how scouting the boxscore can lead to bad conclusions about players. It seems, to me, that this may be even more applicable to football players. This leads me to two questions.
1) How do you factor in college production when grading draft prospects?
2) Do you find advanced metrics more helpful than traditional stats in talent evaluation? Do these even exist for college football players?
Thanks man, I really enjoy your work. Eagles fans are really lucky to have you.
Tom..for the Jags, I assume Leo is higher on their list than Sam, No? I get that Dion can be a heckuva speed rusher, but wouldnt Leo be a waste of all his talents? Do you think Dion is going to be drafted by the Jags as a Leo? or just start him off as a LEO, until they find one and than move Dion over to SAM?
Since playing Leo, basically asking your player to Pin his ears back and get in the backfield reduces bust potential, is there a Decent chance that the Jags might Value Mingo or Ziggy for thier Leo more than Jordan?
Of course, when Blaine Gabbert is your QB…and you know EJ probably wont make it to round 2, and that the Bills will probably make a serious play to out duel you for Nassib…How much can they really afford to pass on Geno? Does any of this make any sense, or are these my delusions, so I can sleep better at night, thinking Jordan might fall to us? lol
What sounds Fishy to me, is that the Eagles have created al this speculation, about us taking all these different players. You have prospects saying they think they will be Eagles, you have experts saying “they hear things” about what we want, and every name has been rumored but Jordan. We havent heard anyone say, from what I hear, the Eagles want Jordan…The experts whjo predict Jordan, just do so on their own projection, not inside info…I havent heard any inside Info rumors that the Eagles have ever tipped their hands about wanting Jordan…yet I hear this sort of speculation about every prospect…The Howie I know and love, doesnt tip his hand….There’s usually, SILENCE sorrounding his true target…..
I think, everyone wants to trade back and still get their guy…Could all this Dion at #2 talk, be the Jags trying to get us to Jump up to two, while only moving back 2 spots and getting compensation?
IDEAL scenario, Dion and Lane are on the board at #4. Fisher and Joekel are off the board. Eagles get Detroit to guive up value to move up one spot to secure Lane, while we still end up with Dion..Thats the Dream. If Dion is off the board, trade back, hope Star falls, or settle for Sheldon. People might not be high on sheldon right now, but if he falls to the Giants or Cowboys, we wont be happy!
also, we were ok, not checking on Millners labrum, cancelling a visit, because we have “enough” info on him, yet we didnt have “enough” info to cancel Dion’s visit?
If they’re looking at a Jack they probably want Ziggy over Jordan.
Thats what I always thought…heck, I thought JAGS would take Ziggy, back when he wast talked about as the 11th pick….Because I think Mingo, and Ziggy might be better LEO’s, Im getting the feeling that all his Dion at #2 talk is the Jags trying to get compensation for trading down two spots….of course, ifthe Jags take Dion, start him at LEO and eventually move him over to SAM, when they find a LEO, it would debunk my theory
Eagles/Os fan here too Tommy! Not to many of us out there.
Re: Eagles 1st pick
Seems like the question should be . . . which player will have the greatest impact.
A QB always is at the top of the answer sheet. So, in relative terms, is Geno close enough to being the “big impact” QB the Eagles could build around . . . T-Law says “no.”
Geno’s out.
So what position — besides QB — offers the potential for giving us the “biggest impact” player?
Offensive Tackle? History shows that SB winners don’t need Top-5 O-linemen to win the championship. O-line is more about teamwork than any other part of a football team.
How ’bout CB? Deion Sanders was a the 5th pick of the ’88 draft by the Falcons. And the Falcons continued to be subpar until getting a top-shelf QB (Vick then Ryan).
Defensive Ends? If the kid is a Richard Seymour, and the team has a pretty good QB, then you’re now talking about a “big impact” player.
OLBs? How many Lawrence Taylors are out there?
I vote the Eagles take the Best DE available — however Chipper defines what a DE is in the so-far unknown scheme. Could be Jordan or B-Mingus (Mingo’s out; the name’s now “Mingus”). Maybe Shelly Richardson. Or the Star.
UNRELATED: I sure hope Foles has improved his mechanics. If so, he offers us the future. Vick’s a short termer.
I want a pass rusher, primarily, but I could see the logic in drafting a guy like Star as well.
And just to tack on to an excellent post, AC, we can further parse things out by defining “impact.” Do you mean impact right now, or impact over ten years?
To your point, a DE might provide the most meaningful, and potentially shorter term impact, whereas an OT may not deliver the immediate impact, but by virtue of lasting longer and performing in a competent and reliable fashion, might provide a “we don’t have to worry about that” level impact (a la Tra Thomas).
Re: Lesser of two “evils”
I am going to play out two bad QB scenarios because I wonder if it effects the Eagles decision-making in the draft:
Scenario 1: The Eagles pass on Geno Smith, EJ Manuel or any other QB who brings higher expectations in this draft. Geno and/or EJ have impressive rookie years and joint the crop of up-and-coming NFL QBs while Foles/Vick struggle to inspire confidence. The team goes 6-10 and is not in position to draft a heralded franchise-type QB in 2014 either.
Scenario 2: The Eagles draft Geno or EJ high this year, early indications are minimal, wobbly or inconclusive. For whatever reason, some shine comes off these prospects. The team does not make the playoffs and no QB on the roster has firmly established himself.
Which situation is worse for Howie and Chip’s job security?
I think both scenarios are equally good or bad for Howie and Chip’s security.
In Scenario 1, you look to next year’s draft for a “better” QB because you didn’t feel that Geno or EJ were a franchise guy, and wanted to see if Foles could work. Geno and EJ would have “come out of nowhere” for everyone.
In Scenario 2, with inconclusive results, you give the QB at least another year because that’s what it (usually) takes to adjust to the NFL (Luck and RG3 as rare exceptions, Russell Wilson as someone who surprised everyone). Also, in this scenario, there might even more latitude because it’s unlikely the drafted rookie will get as many chances at Vick or Foles.
I think Scenario 1 is tougher to swallow, based on human nature. I think it’s what Howie and Chip would dread most. How much of a factor that should or will make it, I don’t know.
2 random thoughts for the day…
1) Kenjon Barner? With Dion Lewis being traded, and guys like Tavon Austin and Marquise Goodwin being linked at possible Eagles picks – why isn’t there more interest in Barner? Surely he could do a similar-ish job at a lower pick, as a sub package guy, providing extra RB depth and some Chip Kelly inside knowledge. Yet it seems very quiet on the Barner front. No interest?
2) Jay Cutler and Josh Freeman – 2 QBs on the last years of their contract and neither have been obviously great for their teams.. Decent sure, but decent may not be good enough for Schiano and/or Trestman. Freeman had some big yardage last year, but he’s had 55 turnovers (39 INTS, 16 fumbles lost) in the last 2 years and didn’t build on his good 2nd year. Cutler always shows some potential but is continually excused by fans for an awful O-line. Just wondering if either of these 2 might be moved, if anyone has heard any whispers, and whether either would be a good fit in a Chip Kelly offense…
They could take Barner, that wouldn’t surprise anyone although if they don’t get more picks they could also pass on him. Polk is a good fit for Kelly’s offense and he’s down to 215 according to him in a Spads interview. He had a major turf toe injury.
Cutler will be 30. I just don’t think that’s the direction Kelly will head.
Dont see either the Bears or Bucs letting Cutler/Freeman go
For those who were wondering about the hotel room:
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
A trashed hotel room at Indy scouting combine that Yahoo reported on belonged to Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins and Rutgers WR Mark Harrison.
yea but
Alex Marvez @alexmarvez13m
Following @AdamSchefter’s report on DeAndre Hopkins/Mark Harrison trashing hotel room at combine, a GM told me that (CONT)
he was told Hopkins had left the room several hours before it was destroyed. Will be curious to see how this unfolds
I think the NFL needs to look into the possibility that Najeh Davenport snuck into the room…
In that case they already have scatological evidence
YES!!!
I actually groaned out loud when I read that.
Respect.
There’s also this:
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
NFL sources said they are convinced that Rutgers wide receiver Mark Harrison is not responsible for the trashed hotel room.
Glad you pointed out how good Howie is at misdirection. Whatever may be said about the guy’s track record as a talent evaluator, he clearly has an excellent poker face. I see know reason to put any stock in any of these media reports about who the Eagles will pick.
Here’s another excellent poker face…
WOW the idiot that trashed the combine hotel room was Deandre Hopkins…welcome to round two IDIOT!
Idiot read below. He claims he left the room hours before the trashing.
idiota ci sara tu madre
Watched a bunch of the interviews on PE.com, very interesting. Trent Cole slimmed WAY down. He looks small next to Conner Barwin. Other take, one clip of Demeco Ryans talking to Brandon Boykin. I think Boykin somehow found a way to pack even more muscle on that little frame.
That’s like the dude at the office that is totally jacked and you just get mad, like dude what are you even going to do with all that….you better hit somebody….
At my office it’s the IT guys, of all people.
I guess that’s why nobody says anything when they remotely takeover your computer to authorize updates and cut out at everyday at 3:30pm (presumably to hit the gym).
Schedule leak:
http://eaglesblog.net/2013/04/schedule-is-out/
Hmm, done with the Giants before November? Interesting.
I really don’t like that. They did that to the Steelers/Ravens rivalry in one of the recent seasons….dumb
I wonder if Giants/Redskins replaced Giants/Eagles as the late season divisional “gem”…
Me either, but more because the Giants suck in December than for the dramatic narrative.
good stuff tom….13-3 here we come! SUPERBOWL OR BUST!!! hahahaha I joke I joke, I kid, i kid