Hypothetical Time

Posted: April 21st, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 64 Comments »

Just a quick post here. I’m busy entering profile data at ScoutsNotebook. Dude McGee is on the way out, sad to say.

Lots of draft rumors going around today. The hottest item is that the Bills will take Ryan Nassib at pick #8.  What about Geno Smith? He might be getting ready to freefall quite a bit. Daniel Jeremiah said he’s talked to various team executives about where Smith will go and there is always awkward silence. That isn’t a good sign. Chris Mortensen is also reporting that Geno could fall quite a bit.

I know many of you don’t like Geno Smith.  But…what if he falls all the way down to pick 35?  That would change things a great deal for me. My argument has never been that Geno can’t play. I didn’t think he was worth the #4 pick. I think he’s a talented QB that can be a solid NFL starter. I’m not sure he’ll ever be good enough to build a team around, but you don’t expect to find that guy in the 2nd round. You hope, but don’t expect.

The EJ Manuel rumor mill is non-existent. I don’t know if that’s good or bad. It won’t shock me if he goes ahead of Geno. More than a few people have talked themselves into the notion that Manuel can turn into Colin Kaepernick. I think that is some big time fool’s gold, but there is no question that Manuel has potential.

Where might Geno land if he starts to tumble?

1 Kansas City
2 Jacksonville
3 Oakland
4 Philadelphia
5 Detroit
6 Cleveland
7 Arizona
8 Buffalo
9 New York Jets
10 Tennessee
11 San Diego
12 Miami
13 New York Jets *****
14 Carolina
15 New Orleans
16 St. Louis
17 Pittsburgh
18 Dallas
19 New York Giants
20 Chicago
21 Cincinnati
22 St. Louis from WAS
23 Minnesota *****
24 Indianapolis
25 Minnesota from SEA
26 Green Bay
27 Houston *****
28 Denver *****
29 New England
30 Atlanta
31 San Francisco
32 Baltimore

2nd Round

33 Jacksonville *****
34 San Francisco from KC
35 Philadelphia
36 Detroit
37 Cincinnati from Oakland
38 Arizona
-Cleveland Exercised in Supplemental Draft-
39 New York Jets
40 Tennessee
41 Buffalo

It really isn’t all that crazy to see Geno falling that far. The Jags at 33 would be the big test. But they might go for Matt Barkley or Manuel. Or they might go for some other player.

Crazy, but actually possible for Geno to hit 35.

How would you feel about that?

* * * * *

Don’t forget, lots of draft nuggets are posted at EaglesBlog.

_


  • A_T_G

    At the top of the second round, I don’t want any player that wasn’t worth someone’s first round pick.

    • TommyLawlor

      Did you steal that from Groucho Marx? “I’d never belong to a country club that would have someone like me as a member.”

      Brilliant.

      • A_T_G

        Not stealing, channeling. But, yes, that was the inspiritation.

    • Neil

      I have never seen fakewipcaller channeled so well. Sure enough, someone downvoted it.

  • http://twitter.com/alex_karklins Alex Karklins

    It’s a nice thought, but I really don’t think many teams have Nassib and Manuel rated above Smith. If he lasts to 35, it’s a no-brainer for me. Take him.

    • Ferg Ferg

      Wholeheartedly agree. In fact, I’d even go so far as to say maybe it’s worth trading back ahead of JAX in the 2nd for him.

  • TommyLawlor

    ILB Rolando McClain was arrested in his hometown of Decatur, AL tonight. No details yet, but it is probably a good thing the Eagles didn’t sign him.

    • SteveH

      That guy is such a head case. I love this perp walk picture of him though.

  • SteveH

    If it comes down to Smith or Cyprien, I’m Cyprien all the way baby.

  • deg0ey

    I think the Jets will be interesting to watch. They’ve now got two picks in the top half of the first and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them take Tavon at 9 and Geno at 13. If you’re bringing in a rookie QB, Tavon could be one helluva security blanket for him.

    • TommyLawlor

      That would be an interesting combo for them. Marty Mornhinweg would love that duo.

    • Baloophi

      That would be an interesting draft for sure.

      I don’t know why, but I feel like NYJ will try to move up for Ansah…

      • TommyLawlor

        They could use a dynamic presence in the front seven. They would have to see him as a LB since they have Mo Wilkerson and Q Coples as their DEs. I do think Ansah can play LB. And I’m sure Rex would be interested in that.

      • brza

        Maybe they trade up to 4 to get Ansah and give us 9 and 39? With 9 we take Tavon, Geno at 35 and either DL or DB at 39. (1800 Eagles to 1860 Jets according to the trade value chart. The team moving up generally gives up more and despite claims that the chart no longer applies recent draft trades have still regularly been in line with the chart values).

        Although, Ansah has really grown on me and I’d be happy taking him at 4.

        • deg0ey

          I could certainly see them being up for a trade. Ansah at 4 and Rhodes at 13 could be a big improvement for that D (and we know Rex is always going to prioritise that over the offense).

      • Arby1

        Or Milliner, now that they need a CB.

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  • Sifter

    Just a couple of other teams to add to the Geno Smith stakes. I think the Bears at #20 would most likely be looking to trade back to get more picks (they don’t have a 3rd rounder), but they might be very tempted by Geno, given that Cutler is in the final year of his deal and hasn’t been overly awesome in his time as a Bear thus far. If they could do some big time scrambling, move Cutler and take Geno – that might make Trestman happier. Who knows? Another couple of teams might be the Chargers, who have a new coach and Rivers wasn’t too great last year, and the Saints who have Drew Brees, but is starting to get on a bit (34 I think?). Not a real pressing need for those 2, but if they missed on plan A, then Geno could be a decent plan B, particularly if they could trade back, get extra picks and still land him.

    The other teams that might want a QB: Arizona, Oakland, maybe Tampa, have too many holes and not a lot of picks to trade back into the bottom of the 1st. I imagine they have already done a lot of diligence on 2nd-4th round QBs, and that might help Geno fall even further as those teams might elect to stick with their original draft strategies.

    As for the question. Geno at #35 would be great value. Even in the middle of the first round I think he’d be worth a pick.

    • TommyLawlor

      If Chicago wants to keep Cutler, they can’t make the pick. I did consider them.

      The Steelers are a good surprise team to me. They love value. Big Ben is entering his 10th NFL season. He struggles to stay healthy so Geno would play some in the next 2 years while he learned and developed. Then the Steelers either trade Geno or Ben, or release Ben.

  • Baloophi

    If the Bills want Nassib, wouldn’t they look to trade down a few spots (if possible)? Or is there enough underground love for Nassib that they’d feel compelled to take him at 8?

    • TommyLawlor

      I think they’d love to move down and get him, but there may not be a team trying to move up for pick 8. They need some compelling player to fall so that a team will want to deal.

      Nassib at 8 seems crazy to me. Could be bogus, but the rumor is coming from a BUF radio guy that knows his stuff.

      • T_S_O_P

        I wonder if that radio guy got Donte Whitner back in ’07? That was out of left field at the time an we all got excited because it push Broderick closer to us.

      • bubqr

        Same thing than you said for Geno/Eagles. If they believe he can be a franchise QB then pick 8 is a fair price…

        And to be honest, the few I ve seen of him, I have him above Jake Locker and on par with C.Ponder as a prospect (I’d tend to say above Ponder too but that might be influenced by the recent years, and I try to be as objective as possible).

        I still hate the Dion’s pick. I’d like to see what you see, but I see a huge project, a speedy tall guy with limited production. And also, while lots of people talked about him as the combine star, what Ansah did at 271 is equally as impressive to me, and considering his football experience, I’d tend to think he would be a better pick with more upside. I still feel, like I did a month ago, he’ll be our pick.

        I loved your mock by the way, as usual every year. Lots of good picks that makes sense, a few surprises here and there… When is your final one coming?

        One of the few head scratcher for me in it is what people, including you, see in Arthur Brown that would make him a first rounder. I see an undersized tackling machine, and I would not touch him below mid secound round. Him replacing Urlacher makes sense in the way that his athleticism and instincts would be best used in their Tampa 2 system, but I still see a big reach there.

      • deg0ey

        I don’t know, I could maybe see someone move ahead of the Jets to get Tavon.

  • ICDogg

    Hypothetically I would take Geno Smith at 35. That being said, I don’t think he’ll fall beyond 25 if he falls at all.

  • http://www.facebook.com/matthew.mccarthy.1042 Matthew McCarthy

    Who do people like that could drop to the 11-12 range? Possibilities:(S. Lotulelei, T. Austin, E. Ansah, D. Milliner, Mingo, top 2 Guards). If Geno is there, you could drop even farther back into a range still safe of a 2nd round team jumping up (Bengals at 21?). Im itching for Tavon Austin.

    • ICDogg

      Yeah… you never know. Floyd might drop a little. Richardson, probably. Lane Johnson, possibly.

    • Arby1

      I’d be OK with any of those guys in the 11 – 12 range. After watching video of Star, I no longer would consider him at 4. And I would add Sheldon Richardson to that list.

      • Arby1

        i.e.: 11 to 12

    • Lukekelly65

      i think Venny Vaccaro could be a option…i see him going between 13-17 but i dont think he would be a reach at 10-13 i think he has the chance to be a big time player

  • http://twitter.com/PhiIs_Goodman Phils Goodman

    No way the Jets can pass on Geno, unless they take Manuel instead.

    • ICDogg

      especially with an extra 1st they’re getting for Revis

      • http://twitter.com/sjampendk Patrick

        And Sanchez enters his last year where his dead money is outrageous. If they cut him this year, its 17. million, next year its just shy of 5 million. The Sanchize either takes a huge paycut or he will just be cut. Unless the totally unexpected happens and he actually plays, you know, like a QB.

        The question is, will the Jets take an imperfect QB this year when, regardless what they do, Sanchez is on the team and next years QB class can only be better than this years, and looks to be better than most years?

        Depends on how secure Rex is. If the Jets are willing to give him another shot even though he(and Tannembaum) missed wildly on a QB and overpaid him, I would give Rex defensive pieces. But then again, i wouldn’t be angry with Geno later in the draft, but not exited either.

  • ICDogg

    Two separate NFL scouts told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that Florida DT Sharrif Floyd is an overrated media creation.
    It’s worth noting Floyd had only 4.5 sacks in three college seasons. He’s been touted hard by Greg Cosell, Mike Mayock, and Daniel Jeremiah, among others. “Those idiots on TV made Floyd,” said one scout. “He’s not that good. He’s not better than Ziggy Hood.” Asked if the Warren Sapp comparisons are valid, another scout replied “No. There’s none of that. (Sapp) was just was more gifted than Floyd. Floyd is a good effort player. He’s got shorter arms than (Sheldon) Richardson, and I think it shows. He gets kind of Velcroed on blockers.” Apr 22 – 1:21 AM

    • Arby1

      Go watch some videos of him, if you haven’t already, over at Draftbreakdown and see if you still feel the same way. He may not be Warren Sapp but he definitely gets off blocks and gets penetration.

      • D3FB

        I actually have and I don’t get it at all. He penetrates but does nothing once he gets in the backfield. He gets washed away from the play and leaves big running lanes.

        • Arby1

          We must have watched different tapes. I saw him getting off tackles and making plays and chasing down plays that went away from him. The tapes I watched of Star showed a big, strong guy collapsing the pocket but unable to get off blocks or pursuing the play. I’d rather have Floyd if it were a choice between the 2 even though Star is a better fit for us scheme-wise.

          • deg0ey

            And I’d rather have Hankins than either of them. He can collapse the pocket almost as well as Star but sheds blocks better than anyone else in the draft. Perfect 2-gap player but isn’t completely lost when asked to 1-gap either. Can’t think of a guy I’d rather see Azz get his hands on.

      • ICDogg

        It was just a Rotoworld entry that looked interesting. I haven’t really given it much weight one way or the other.

    • Anders

      Consider Jeremiah was a scout for both the Eagles and the Ravens, I say he knows his shit (you dont stay as a scout for long if you cant scout)

      • Baloophi

        I’m beginning to wonder if “Daniel Jeremiah the Scout” (coming to TNT this fall) is different than “Daniel Jeremiah the TV Personality.”

        I’m not necessarily questioning his analytical skills, but just last week he had Geno Smith to the Eagles as a lock and when questioned, said, “I hear things.” Now he’s saying “OT, Star or Jordan.” Obviously anyone is entitled to change their mind, but it seems like he’s doing so to make other pieces of his mock draft work and keep the spotlight aimed at him.

        Lastly, you have to wonder – if he’s so great at talent evaluation, why is he sitting next to Brian “Miss Piggy Eyeshadow” Baldinger and not next to a team owner and coach?

        • TommyLawlor

          Jeremiah has a couple of young kids. Hated NFL travel. Now he can be a stay at home dad and NFL writer. Great for his family and great for us. Everybody wins.

        • Anders

          As Tommy said, he didnt like the travel part of scouting with two young kids.

          Also you have to sort through from what he think as scout and what he is putting out there from sources.

          He said him self he dont see Geno Smith as a top talent but he heard from some source that the Eagles really like him.

  • T_S_O_P

    My head doesn’t hurt…but confusion reigns.
    From EaglesBlog.net

    Between the steadfastness of the top of last years draft and the utter uncertainty of this one it is not surprising that it leads to this:
    From ScoutsNotebook

    3 Zac Dysert Miami OH 6-3 231
    5 Matt Barkley USC 6-2 227
    4 Ryan Nassib Syracuse 6-2 227

    Oh boy! :-)

  • http://www.facebook.com/daniel.n.richwine Daniel Norman Richwine

    If this were last year, I think Geno would he considered a good second round QB.

  • Jay Ernst

    We already have a guy that has the potential to be a solid, but likely not great QB. His name is Nick Foles and we already know he can perform in the NFL and at the worst can be a solid backup. If we don’t want Geno at 4, then I don’t want him period. We need a franchise QB. Given how many other holes this team has, I don’t see the utility in blowing a high 2nd round pick on another backup QB.

    • garp

      Totally agree.

  • http://www.facebook.com/sean.scheinfeld Sean Scheinfeld

    Anyone who espouses BPA has to be on board with taking Geno at 35. Unless some other great prospect unexpectedly falls, he would be the BPA by a pretty wide margin

    • shah8

      Which is why he’s not falling.

  • EaglesHero87

    After dealing Revis to the Bucs, the Jets now have way more multiple holes than we started off with (thank goodness for us acquiring some nice FA pickups). And with the draft coming in a few days, the pressure is now adding up on the Jets’ shoulders. it makes me wonder whether the Jets will keep their first five 3-round picks, especially their two 1st-round picks, to stockpile as much talent as they can, or use it to their leverage to trade up and pull somewhat of a Redskins’ move to get Geno Smith.

  • nickross23

    NFL.com has a complete 7 rd mock out and they have us with star at 4, Geno at 35 so there might be some truth to the Geno free fall theory.. Me personally love the value at 35 he would represent for us and there’s no pressure what so ever on his shoulders that being a top 10 pick brings.