Other QBs

Posted: April 15th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 55 Comments »

My apologies to those who think it is insensitive to talk about the Eagles on the day of a tragedy.  I’m a creature of habit so the way I deal with stuff like this is to just stick with my normal routine.

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We’ve talked a lot about Geno Smith.  We’ve talked a bit about Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, and some other early QBs.  What about the rest of the draft?  If I had my way, I would not spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on a QB this year.

There are not great options at QB anywhere in this draft, but there are some players who are intriguing.

Zac Dysert – 6-3, 231 – Miami OH – Zac is a player the Eagles have shown some interest in.  And they should.  I think he’s athletic enough to play in Chip Kelly’s offense.  I love his size.  Dysert isn’t a huge 6-5 guy, but he’s got a thick build and he can take a hit.  Zac throws well on the move.  He’s not afraid to throw into coverage.  Some college QBs come to the NFL and need receivers to be wide open or they hesitate.  Dysert can “throw a guy open”.  We don’t know if he can do that at the NFL level, but the fact he’s got that mentality is huge.  Zac carried his team for 4 years.  They only had one winning season, but he had little talent around him.  I do think he can develop into a starter in the NFL.  I would be comfortable spending a 3rd round pick on him.  I could see Dysert going as early as the 2nd round or lasting to the 4th.

Matt Scott – 6-2, 213 – Arizona – I wish Scott had another year of college eligibility left.  He could really be something with more time to develop.  Scott is physically gifted.  You put on an Arizona game and Scott jumps off the screen.  He plays full speed.  Scott ran for 506 yards and 6 TDs this year.  He threw for 3,620 yards and 27 TDs.  Arizona was 7th in total offense and 15th in scoring.  The problem is that Rich Rodriguez was the coach and his offense isn’t NFL-oriented.  Scott threw a ton of short passes.  While he has the physical ability to be an NFL QB, he needs to work on his QB skills.  I don’t think Scott can challenge for a job initially.  I think he’ll need a season of coaching.  The reasons to love him are his running ability and the fact he’s a natural passer.  He has a good arm and quick release.  He has pretty good accuracy.  Scott did throw 14 INTs.  He simply makes bad decisions on some throws.  Aggressive is good, but you don’t want to force the ball into a situation where there is more chance for a bad outcome than good.  Scott did that at times.  He had a good week of practice at the Shrine Game and did some good things in the game.  I think getting him to someone who knows how to coach passing QBs will do Matt a world of good.  If the Eagles love him, he’s worth a 3rd rounder.  I’d be more comfortable with him in the 4th round.

Ryan Griffin – 6-4, 221 – Tulane – Would Chip Kelly be interested in another pocket passer?  Griffin isn’t much of an athlete, but he is a good passer.  Like Dysert, he suffered through a rough career of being on bad teams.  Will it bother NFL teams that Griffin never played in a big game?  That might be more of a concern if Griffin was being looked at as an early pick, but he’s not at that level.  I do think Griffin has the potential to be a starter in the NFL.  The question is if he’s athletic enough and can handle the pressure of big games and tight situations.  I’m sure he would welcome the chance to play with talented players rather than having to carry a team on his back.  Griffin played in the Texas vs The Nation all star game and was the MVP.  I think of him as a 5th round type of prospect.

Jeff Tuel – 6-3, 215 – Washington State – Tough player to evaluate.  Started some as a Freshman and then had an impressive Soph year.  Threw for 2,780 yards and 18 TDs.  Got hurt and basically missed all of his Junior season.  WSU made a coaching change and that meant a new offense for his Senior year.  Tuel didn’t look very comfortable in the new scheme.  He also had to deal with an injury.  If you go back and watch the 2010 tape, Tuel looks like a Chip Kelly QB.  He throws the ball well, short and downfield.  He can run for 1st downs.  He’s tough.  There is a lot to like.  Tuel had a good workout at his Pro Day.  He is a good athlete.  He definitely has NFL ability.  What’s his value, though?  It won’t shock me for him to go as early as the 5th round or undrafted.  If you get the 2010 guy, you’ve got a good prospect.  The 2012 player wasn’t nearly as impressive.

I haven’t had a chance to thoroughly check out these guys:

  • Jordan Rodgers – Vanderbilt (Aaron’s brother)
  • Brad Sorensen – Southern Utah
  • Colby Cameron – La Tech
  • Seth Doege – Texas Tech
  • Mike Herman – RPI

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Apparently Jon Gruden had some very favorable things to say about Ryan Nassib.  Greg Cosell has Nassib as his top QB in the draft.  I like Nassib as well, but also have some concerns.  I’d be okay if the Eagles took him in the 2nd, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll get that far.

It really will be interesting to see how teams go after QBs.  Have teams learned their lesson?  Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, and Mark Sanchez are recent QBs that were over-drafted.  Each player had some issues that should have pushed them down the draft board.

I won’t be shocked if 3 or 4 guys go in the 1st round this year or just one does.  It’s that kind of a bizarre QB class.  All these guys have some talent and potential, but all of them also have issues.

We hope that the 2014 class will be much better, but let’s remember that this group had high hopes last summer.  We expected Matt Barkley to have a great Senior year.  Mike Glennon and Tyler Bray were big pocket passers expected to have big years.  There was hope that Logan Thomas would light it up for Va Tech.  We knew Tyler Wilson would light it up in Bobby Petrino’s offense.  EJ Manuel was set to have a breakthrough season.  And so on.

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The new MAQB column is up.  Gimpy takes a look at the Emmanuel Sanders RFA situation.  He also talks about the Patriots inability to draft and develop a WR.  You’ll be surprised at how inept they’ve been.  Good stuff.

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  • Baloophi

    Looking at this QB class, what would be the expected end game of any selection? I know you should always thoroughly scout the QB’s but none of these guys seems like a traditional franchise type or even common starter… so I guess we’d be drafting with the hopes that they become a competent backup?

    If that’s the case, is taking a QB before the 4th round wise? (Or as a second 3rd round pick if we acquire another). To me, if the pick doesn’t offer a dimension that’s substantially different than Foles then we’re just loading up on backups. (Unless we’re going to trade Foles).

    Matt Scott seems like the lone exception as a project type (though still worlds behind Kaepernick when he was drafted).

    • RC5000

      If they take Scott or Dysert in the 3rd/4th rounds, I would anticipate Vick being gone one way or the other. They can’t use a high pick like that and not anticipate them making the team. And their resources will be limited in giving the QBs time. Practices/Minis etc are limited by rule.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Michael-Riccardi/100000855463486 Michael Riccardi

        Kafka had an astonishingly bad TD/INT ratio (16/12 as a senior, 19/20 career). A mind-numbingly bad pick. Scott’s is respectable, but not spectacular (27/14 as a senior, 33/19 career). I’m not particularly high on Scott, but I wouldn’t object to a 5th-round flyer.

        • RC5000

          Sure. Experience level was my point. Kafka was the only QB I could think of in the NFL that had a similar experience level.
          We have 4 QBs and they all need to learn the system so you have to consider what you’re going to do with Scott and the other QBs was the point. If you take him high as Tommy suggested, you have to think about it to me because you better plan on him making the roster if you’re taking him so high and you have to focus coaching resources on him to a good extent.
          Personally I think they like Foles better than Scott since Scott hasn’t had much development in college.

          • sonofdman

            Not the he is a good QB, but I think Matt Cassel was a backup his whole time at USC.

    • TommyLawlor

      The top guys have a chance to be solid starters: Geno, Wilson, Nassib. I think Dysert can be a starter. Scott and the guys below him have that potential, but the likelihood is much lower.

      I also think that all of these guys could bust.

      • GvilleEagleFan

        If that’s the case, why not apply the same logic that you laid out regarding postponing a defense-heavy draft until we know what we have in Graham/Curry/Chung/Barwin/etc to waiting to draft a QB until we find out if Foles can work or not? Seems like that was partly the thinking in bringing Vick back this year, basically not wanting to have to pick from a weak QB class unless value presents itself. I’d like them to focus on the lines and maybe add a DB in the 2nd if Trufant or Cyprien falls.

        On an unrelated note, any possibility the Eagles work in some 3 safety looks if they draft someone like Cyprien and Phillips’ knee checks out? Any history of Davis or our DBs coach doing that in prior stops? I know Phillips has some experience with the Giants doing it with Rolle, would that make 3 safety sets more likely? Man, the things we think about in April…

  • ICDogg

    If you were to list the top QBs using the criteria of being best for the Eagles, who are your top 5?

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=565087931 Jeppe Elmelund van Ee

      This is from my personal eagles draft board:

      Geno Smith (late first)
      E.J. Manuel (2nd)
      Ryan Nassib (2nd)
      Matt Scott (3rd)
      Zac Dysert (4th)
      Jeff Tuel (5th)

      That being said, I also hope that we don’t draft a QB highly this year. I’d rather focus on building the team up before we choose our future franchise QB (unless Foles proves to be that guy)

    • TommyLawlor

      Based on who I like:

      Geno Smith
      Tyler Wilson
      Ryan Nassib
      Zac Dysert
      Matt Scott

      If I knew more about Jeff Tuel, I might remove Nassib and add Tuel to the bottom of the list.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Ian-Patrick/1137653921 Ian Patrick

    no tyler wilson love?

    • TommyLawlor

      I think he’ll go in the 2nd Rd. I was going for 3rd Rd and lower.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=565087931 Jeppe Elmelund van Ee

    I am so bummed that Tajh Boyd decided to go back to school. He would’ve been the perfect QB for Kelly and the Eagles. He is my number one target in 2014 (unless we suck completely, and have a chance at Bridgewater)

  • A_T_G

    So, if we draft Jordan Rodgers we can have competition in the best little brother of a good Packer to host dinner conversation category.

    • TommyLawlor

      Somebody find BJ Raji’s little brother!!!

      • http://www.facebook.com/xbcsmith Brett Smith

        Somehow I doubt BJ Raji’s brother is “little”

  • PeterAkkies

    Tommy: I work in an office next to the Boston Marathon finish line. I witnessed the first blast from sixty feet away and happened to be looking at the spot of the blast when it occurred. I am very grateful that I was not hurt. I am also grateful that you continued posting anyway, because it’s a welcome distraction and a symbol that we will not be scared. Thank you.

    • RC5000

      Glad you are fine, God bless.

    • TommyLawlor

      Glad to do whatever I can to get your mind off such a tragic event happening right in front of you. Glad you’re okay.

    • Iskar36

      Glad to hear you are ok. My thoughts and best wishes are with anyone that was affected by the blast and with all their friends and family.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=565087931 Jeppe Elmelund van Ee

    Off-topic: My final mockdraft excluding trades…

    1st NT/DE Star Lotulelei, 6-2, 315, Utah
    2nd RT/OG Kyle Long, 6-6, 315, Oregon
    3rd TE Gavin Escobar, 6-6, 255, San Diego State
    4th CB Brandon McGee, 5-11, 195, Miami
    5th OLB Quanterus Smith, 6-5, 250, Western Kentucky
    7th QB Jeff Tuel, 6-3, 221, Washington State (funny you should mention him)
    7th OC Dalton Freeman, 6-5, 285, Clemson
    7th OT Lawrence Okoye, 6-6, 310, England

    Let me know what you think…

    • D3FB

      I like Long but I like Quessenberry more a round later. I love the Dalton Freeman pick, I think both him or Mario Benavedes could be late round targets.

    • TommyLawlor

      I like the players. Would be weird to see us pass on a Safety entirely.

      • D3FB

        Boyett or Miles as a UDFA boom problem solved.

    • Iskar36

      Interesting mock. I would certainly be satisfied if that is how the draft ends up. Passing on a safety is my biggest issue with this mock, but particularly without trades, I don’t think we will be able to get every need (even with trades it will be hard).

    • T_S_O_P

      We have 4 picks in round 7 if you’d like to add a safety.

      • http://www.facebook.com/xbcsmith Brett Smith

        Or a starting OLB

    • RC5000

      Good mock but Commings instead of McGee for me, he offers Kelly versatility and the Eagles have interest. He’s inconsistent at CB but so is McGee. You could take another corner or safety in the 7th round.

    • Arby1

      I’d like to get Star after trading down a few slots and Long after trading down 10 slots.

  • D3Center

    Tommy- I was wondering if you have looked up hand size for any of these QBs since Chip Kelly has said before hand size is the most important physical characteristic for a QB. Do you feel like this could be a good indication of potential targets at the position?

    • ICDogg

      Player School Height Weight Hand Size
      Matt Barkley USC 6-3 227 10.08
      Tyler Bray Tennessee 6-6 232 9.28
      Colby Cameron Louisiana Tech 6-2 212 9.08
      Zac Dysert Miami of Ohio 6-3 231 9.18
      Mike Glennon N.C. State 6-7 225 9.58
      Marqueis Gray Minnesota 6-3 240 9.78
      Landry Jones Oklahoma 6-4 225 9.18
      Collin Klein Kansas State 6-5 226 9.28
      E.J. Manuel Florida State 6-5 237 10.38
      Ryan Nassib Syracuse 6-2 227 10.18
      Sean Renfree Duke 6-3 219 9.08
      Matt Scott Arizona 6-2 213 9.08
      Geno Smith West Virginia 6-2 218 9.28
      Brad Sorensen Southern Utah 6-4 237 9.28
      James Vandenberg Iowa 6-3 226 9.68
      Tyler Wilson Arkansas 6-2 215 8.68

      • limodriver27

        Nice play, ICDogg. Two more reasons to like EJ and Nassib. They both have some pretty big mitts on them. Barkley still does nothing for me.

        • ICDogg

          Vick’s hands are probably smaller than anyone on that list

          • http://www.facebook.com/xbcsmith Brett Smith

            Awesome list!

            Vick can throw a ball better than anyone on that list.

        • ICDogg

          Foles’ hands are bigger than anyone on that list.

      • D3Center

        That’s awesome thanks

    • TommyLawlor

      Tyler Wilson is the one guy with small hands.

      • brza

        He’s a nomad, you know. Smells like cabbage. Small hands.

  • TommyLawlor

    Eagles had WR Robert Woods in for a visit.

    http://eaglesblog.net/2013/04/draft-watch-wr-robert-woods/

    • Baloophi

      I wonder if Chip Kelly brings a PAC 10 (13?) bias with him. Not that I think he’s pounding the table for these guys or anything, but Woods is a guy he’s seen a few times and game-planned for, talked to other coaches about, etc.

      On a similar note, I wonder if Johnathan Franklin (RB, UCLA) is a guy who tickles his visor…

      • RC5000

        so will there be more Johnathans than Jonathans drafted?

        • Baloophi

          Don’t forget we have a Christine, too, this year.

  • T_S_O_P

    RPI have a football program?

    Kelly seems to like athletes and size so much. Hermann could also get a look at TE, where in turn he could be converted to a rush LB, maybe moved back to a LB/S hybrid, then maybe back to the H-B, before settling as P.

    • D3FB

      Yeah Rensselaer plays d3, opponents include: Hobart, Merchant Marine Academy, WPI, and Union.

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  • austinfan

    This is a buyer beware QB market. There may be more QBs with NFL arms than I’ve seen in any draft, yet it’s like some of the worst QB drafts with no clear NFL starter candidates – all have serious flaws and questions.

    In that case, Howie has to be very disciplined, a couple QBs he likes will fall due to numbers and provide real value, while a number of other QBs will be grossly overdrafted by teams that talk themselves into thinking they represent real value.

    A good example is Scott, he’s a value pick in the 4th to 5th rounds, a horrible mistake in the 2nd rd – because he’s very high risk. Dysert may fall to the 5th or 6th rounds, just because once a half dozen QBs are drafted, teams may wait a while to take one.

    • shah8

      huh? Last year had more NFL arms, even if you exclude the top two picks. We’re basically talking Geno, Mike Glennon, EJ Manuel, and Tyler Bray this year, and two of those guys only have the arm, and not much else.

  • Ark87

    Exactly right. Sports (and entertainment in general) aren’t just an escape from the mundane, something to do when bored, but most importantly it is an escape from tragedy. In the 24 hour news cycle, we’ve all seen and heard horrible things. Which is what the person or people responsible ultimately wanted. It is not disrespectful to step away for a few minutes to talk some Eagles to mentally get away from it all for a little bit.

  • new coach

    hmm. major violations at Oregon. Did Chip want to come here or did he just want to run away from the impending mess?

  • SteveH

    Hey Tommy, what do you make of the combine hotel trashing incident? I’d love to know who the responsible players were. When I first heard about it I figured they partied or something and left the room a little beat up, but leaving feces and urine all over the place is actually even worse than that. I have to imagine this is a big red flag about those players, what they did is more than just kids being immature in my opinion. Gotta be some kind of behavioral issues.

    • Iskar36

      I heard about the trashing of the room, but I didn’t hear about leaving it in that bad of a condition. That’s crazy. I’m not 100% sure if/when fans will find out who was involved, but I am sure the teams know the players involved. There is no question that will hurt their draft stock. I believe it was reported that one of them was a 1st round prospect.

      • Lukekelly65

        I guess will have to wait and see who is awkwardly left sitting in the green room to figure out who it was haha

        • BlindChow

          I heard it was the room where Joeckel, Fisher, Jordan, and Smith were staying.

  • RC5000
  • brza

    BountyBowl posted a link to the following article a couple days ago concerning QBs which got me to do a bit of research. Here’s the article:
    http://www.blatanthomerism.com/2010-articles/march/maturity-and-more-make-bradford-most-likely-to-succeed.html

    The article was basically an argument from a Sooner for NFL Teams to choose Bradford over Jimmy Clausen before the 2010 draft (haha, hindsight is funny). He used a quote from Bill Parcells that described rules for drafting a QB. The four simple Tuna Rules to drafting a QB are:

    He must be a senior.
    He must have a degree.
    He must be a three-year starter.
    He must have at least 23 wins.

    Based on those rules and the article I decided to take a look at this QB class to see how they’d stack up as well as last year’s top two and the past 13 Superbowl winners. Kurt Warner was just too much of an exception to any rule and a good place to stop doing research.

    Here are the results:
    2013 QB Class:
    Smith (Yes, meets all of the Tuna Rules)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – Yes, on track.
    3-year Starter – Yes. 3 years.
    23 wins or more – Yes. 26-13 as starter

    Nassib (No, 3 of 4 but missed on most important category 23 wins)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – Yes. Graduate Student.
    3-year Starter – Yes. 3 years.
    23 wins or more – No. 21-17 as starter

    Manuel (No, but 3 of 4 including the most important)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – Yes. Graduate Student.
    3-year Starter – No. 2 full years as starter but started 4 games as a freshman too.
    23 wins or more – Yes. 24-8 as starter

    Barkley (Yes, meets all of the Tuna Rules)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – Yes on course.
    3-year Starter – Yes. 4 years.
    23 wins or more – Yes. 34-17 as starter

    Scott (No, only 2)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – I assume yes as fifth year senior.
    3-year Starter – No. 1 year.
    23 wins or more – No. 8-5 as starter

    Glennon (No, only 2)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – Yes. Graduate Student.
    3-year Starter – No. 2 years.
    23 wins or more – No. 15-11 as starter

    T. Wilson (No, only 2)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – I assume yes as fifth year senior.
    3-year Starter – No. 2 years. Plus one Start in relief.
    23 wins or more – No. 15-11 as starter.

    Dysert (No, 3 of 4 but missed on most important 23 wins)
    Senior – Yes
    Degree – Yes, graduated Fall 2012. Fifth year Senior.
    3-year Starter – Yes. 4 years.
    23 wins or more – No. 15-29 as starter.

    2012 Class:
    Luck (Yes 4 for 4)
    Senior – Yes, graduated in 3 years.
    Degree – Yes.
    3-year Starter – Yes. 3 years.
    23 wins or more – Yes. 31-7 as starter.

    RGIII (Yes 4 for 4)
    Senior – Yes.
    Degree – Yes.
    3-year Starter – Yes. 4 years but injured after 3 games Sophomore year.
    23 wins or more – Yes. 23-18 as starter.

    List of the last 13 Superbowl Winners (Tuna Rules 8-5 SB wins, 6-3 individual QBs since some repeated):
    Dilfer (Surprisingly, Yes. 27-9 as a college starter over 3 years)
    Brady (No, 20-5, only 2-year starter)
    Brad Johnson (NO)
    Brady (NO)
    Brady (NO)
    Roethlisberger (Gonna count as Yes since he met 3 of 4 categories, Senior during draft 27-11, 3-year starter but graduated 9 years later)
    Peyton (Yes)
    Eli (Yes)
    Roethlisberger (Yes, kind of)
    Brees (Yes)
    Rodgers (No, 2-year starter, Junior)
    Eli (Yes)
    Flacco (Yes)

    Recent Super Bowl winners that don’t fit the Tuna Rules:
    Brad Johnson (never full-time starter)
    Tom Brady (20-5, 2-year starter, Senior)
    Aaron Rodgers (18-7, 2-year starter, Junior)

    So, what can we learn?

    According to Tuna’s Rules only Geno Smith is worth an early pick this season. Also, it appears that averaging close to 8 wins per season as a starter is an important watermark that would apply to all of the past 13 SB winners except Brad Johnson. And maybe its ok to have been only a 2-year starter if the QB was above the 8 wins per season watermark.
    Of course, there are exceptions like Tebow, Ty Detmer, possibly Bradford and many others but that only proves that tape study is the first test while the Tuna Rules can help to further narrow down the selection. Its also possible that only top tape study candidates will end up meeting all 4 of Parcell’s requirements. Nevertheless, I thought it was a pretty interesting angle to add to the highly debated QB ranking process.