Q&A
Posted: April 13th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 64 Comments »I’m behind on answering some questions so here goes.
The Eagles cancelled their meeting with CB Dee Milliner. Does this mean anything? I really don’t think so. The Eagles could have had a logistical reason for cancelling. Or maybe they realized they didn’t need the meeting. Milliner is a star player from the top football school in the nation. There can’t be too many unknowns. I don’t expect the Eagles to take Milliner at #4, but if the team is able to trade back, he could definitely be a target.
What do you think of us drafting Oregon players? I have no problem with that. If we had hired Brian Kelly instead of Chip Kelly, I’d still have major interest in adding LB Dion Jordan, OL Kyle Long, ILB Kiko Alonso, and S John Boyett. RB Kenjon Barner is the only guy who might be truly helped by Chip being the coach. The other players are good on their own merit. Barner is to a certain extent, but not all coaches like smaller RBs.
One point must be emphasized. The scouts have been writing reports and doing research since last summer. Oregon players won’t suddenly shoot up 2 rounds in value since Kelly came here. They might fit the systems better, but their grades won’t change significantly.
What about “whiffability”, the idea that certain positions are more likely to produce busts in the draft? NFL teams are embracing certain aspects of the Moneyball mentality. Studying draft successes and failures would be part of this. I don’t know how much of this the Eagles have done. Howie Roseman has a different background so I can see him being more open to this than some old school GMs. You can bet with Chip Kelly coming on board and his openness to new ideas that the Eagles will study as many things as they can, looking for any advantage.
That said, no one has yet to come up with any formula of who/what to take or not take that seems to truly hold up over time. There are so many variables in a player’s success or failure that it can be hard to find definitive patterns that you make plans around.
Brent over at Eagles Rewind has done some good research on certain positions being safer than others. Maybe the Eagles have also done that same research.
What’s your opinion of Ryan Nassib? He’s talented, tough, and an overachiever. I like all those things a lot. He’s a limited athlete with erratic pocket presence and that scares me. Nassib was able to get away with some odd things in the pocket at the college level. He was very jumpy. He would move several feet at a time when pressured. He won’t have that ability in the NFL. You move a step or two in the pocket. You side-step the rush.
I think Nassib could play in Kelly’s system. He will run. He’s just not fast at all. Nassib is coachable, having played for Doug Marrone at Syracuse. Nassib led Syracuse on a few game-winning drives this year. He’s clutch. I could live with Nassib if the Eagles took him in the 2nd round. I don’t fully believe in him, but there is a lot to like.
What happens at Safety? This is a tricky position. Many of you want to invest a 2nd round pick on a S prospect. I completely get that logic, but it won’t surprise me to see the Eagles wait til the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round. The team likes Patrick Chung at SS. FS is more up in the air, with Kenny Phillips and Nate Allen set to battle for the job. It almost makes more sense to draft a mid-round player to battle with them. None of us trusts Phillips or Allen right now, but those players could pan out. All Phillips has to do is stay healthy. Allen just needs to get his confidence back and play to his full potential. We’re not asking these players to do something they aren’t capable of.
Now if the coaches think Nate Allen is beyond redemption and that Phillips is too unreliable, then go spend a high pick if the right player is available at the right spot. I want us to get back to having good Safeties, but I don’t want the organization to make a panicky move. Eagles fans know as well as anyone just how hard it is to draft and develop a good Safety.
Tavon Austin. I continually get questions about whether the Eagles could have interest in Austin. Absolutely. I think Chip Kelly would love to have a player like him. If I had to list a shocker pick at #4 it would be Austin. If the Eagles do trade back, I think Austin could be a key target.
Chip Kelly loves playmakers. The one thing the Eagles don’t have right now is a guy that can catch the ball on a quick screen and deliver a big play with RAC skills. Both DeSean and Maclin head for the sideline. That can work with blocking and help from the defense. Kelly would love someone like Austin, Marquise Goodwin, or Cordarelle Patterson that has great RAC ability. I don’t think Chip has the mentality that he “must” get this player this year, but I’m sure he’d love to.
One way to help the QB and OL is with quick throws. That requires receivers to catch the ball in the slot and get up the field. They must be able to work in traffic. And the receivers around him must be willing/able to block. I think DeSean might react well to this and become more of a weapon on short throws. Maclin has the ability to be terrific in this area, but we just haven’t seen it so far in his NFL career.
Trading back. I love the thought of trading back, whether to just 7 or 8, or if the Eagles go all the way back to #12. I desperately want another 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Sheil Kapadia put together a must-read post on trade scenarios. Great info on trade partners and possible compensation.
The next time I do a mock draft for the Eagles I will mix in a trade.
_
Het T
Any chance someone on the current roster gets traded on or before draft day?
Cole perhaps? I really dont see how he fits in this current defensive scheme.
Cole won’t be traded. Has too high a cap figure. Cheaper to keep him than to cut him. Also, wouldn’t get much in return since he’s 30 and coming off a poor season.
Tommy,
Lance Zierlein reported on twitter tonight that a reliable source told him to keep Geno Smith at #4 in his mock draft. He is usually well connected with sources. What is your thoughts?
I missed that. I’ll take a look at his timeline.
Sorry, it was Evan Silva tweeting that Zierlein had reported that. About 3 hours ago. I tried to send you the tweet, but my technical skills are bad…
“Plug Geno in at #4” doesn’t automatically mean the Eagles are taking him. Maybe they have a trade partner set up
I wondered about that phrasing as well.
Just posted this:
http://eaglesblog.net/2013/04/another-geno-to-the-eagles-believer/
There is definitely some smoke gathering around Geno the last week or so. I guess what intrigues me is its similar to how it also started to gather around Kelly when the season was winding down and that turned out to be true. Not sure I completely buy it yet b/c he draft is even crazier than coaching searches with reliable information.
I think you’re spot on with your point that if they really are interested, they’re doing a lousy job of keeping it a secret.
If you look at this front office’s MO over the past few seasons, it’s clear that they are very good at obfuscation and generally keep things under wraps when they are genuinely interested in somebody – the Asomugha signing in 2011 free agency, Fletcher Cox pick, and hiring of Kelly all came seemingly out of the blue because the Eagles had withheld information and/or snowed league sources expertly. It strikes me as extremely unlikely that they would all of a sudden forget how to do this and give any other team that wanted Geno Smith a clear signal that they would need to trade up to #3 or higher to get him if Smith was really a target. If anything, based on their track record I think we should expect the Eagles to pick somebody that nobody is talking about (it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them draft Milliner after canceling his private workout for instance).
What if his source is Daniel Jeremiah?
Will Tavon be employed occasionally as Rb in the NFL, as Cosell suggests? Is he big enough for that?
You absolutely use him in a variety of ways. That’s part of the attraction to him.
Imagine lining up in an empty set. Then Austin shifts to RB. He’s then running against a Dime defense. If he hits the right hole, watch out.
I love the possibilities of Austin too. Depends how strong Howie and Chip think the roster is. If they are confident, then they could absolutely roll the dice at #4. Using #4 on a slot receiver/gimmick RB would blow the collective minds! I can’t say I’d enjoy the pick, and it would probably be a ‘throw things’ pick, but it would at least indicate that the team is stronger than I think it is.
If the Eagles drafted Tavon Austin, do you think they would then go and trade Maclin? Obviously it would make your starting receiver duo tiny, but if they beaf up the TE position and keep the big WRs for the rest of the depth, it might be okay. If they were able to get picks for trading back and a 2nd or 3rd for Maclin, we could get 4 or 5 guys from rounds 2 and 3.
I think Tavon would be in the slot most of the time. No reason to deal Maclin because of that. Jeremy is a FA at the end of the season and it would be unlikely that he’d be kept around so that could affect things. The x-factor here is if Kelly can light a fire under Mac, he could turn him into one heck of a WR.
Funny you bring up Milliner first thing in this post and then talk about Tavon. I was just looking at a St Petersburg Times article about the Revis to Tampa rumors that are not dead. Jets in talks about trading Revis to Tampa for 13th pick. Tampa wants to get this done (IF they decide they are willing to move the pick or pick plus and assuming the reports are right) before the draft because of Revis medicals and contract.
Jets would have 9th, 13th picks (not saying they move both just saying). Marty is up there. Idzik is a Philly/Eagles guy who was a ballboy and hung around the Eagles as a kid (because of his Dad being OC here) and he still has roots here. Not that that dictates anything. Just kind of fun to ponder. I have no idea if Jets want Milliner.
My guess is that the Jets take Tavon at#9, and Geno Smith at 13…
call me crazy, but I also think EJ Manuel will land in Carolina, or San Fran
I think people are underrating DeSean’s age. We don’t know when his lightening speed is going to give out, but when it does what value does he have on the football field? We don’t have to replace him today, but I consider it worthwhile to have a succession plan in place at this point in his career.
We also need to consider the fact that there is uncertainty in Maclin’s career as an Eagle (will he be with us in 2014?).
In a year or two we may go from having a good tandem of WR to having a serious “need” at WR.
I just can’t fathom how the Eagles could work with their top 3 or 4 receivers being shorter than average (Jackson, Maclin, maybe Austin/Goodwin, Avant is ‘only’ 6’0″), yet being backed up by monsters (Benn, Cooper, McNutt, MOMAH). I get the need for sub packages and versatility, but honestly…you can’t have that kind of mix, just because if one of the small guys who’s playing a lot of snaps gets injured, it would be difficult to replace his contribution with any of the bench players because they are completely different. We’ve seen it in the past when Riley Cooper has come in and tried to fill the shoes of DJax or Mac – he can’t, and then coaches panic and think oh well maybe just throw jump balls at him? Hasn’t worked…
Put it this way, Kelly is the one coach who is not set on his play book, but make the play book around his players. So the offense will look different if we had the big guys in compare to the smaller guys. It is the same scenario if Vick is the starter and suddenly he goes down, in comes the very different Foles.
To add to Anders point, it did seem at times like Andy and Marty weren’t sure what to do with big receivers. Let’s wait until Chip shows a similar problem before we get down on him.
They did know how to use TO.
Problem is that AR was married to his play book, that meant he schemed the hell out of things and had the idea that any player could perform in that play book, while Kelly is much more about packages for each type of receivers like GB and Saints do.
Ihave seen this concern about having DeSean and Tavon a few times. Why isit bad to have two smaller, quicker guys on the field at the same time? It would seem to me, if I were trying to gameplan a defense, that having a small and bigger WR to defend would allow me to match up the CB with the matching skills to each guys. If they put out two small, quick blazers I would worry about what to do with my big corner. What am I missing?
I wouldn’t get caught up with WR size, because chip Kelly will have like 3 pass catching, Caveman TE(some of which who will function as WR’s) to mix in with the midgets. If Healthy, I have a strong Belief in Benn. I would love to see Momah work out, but he is much more of a Roster crap shoot IMO than Benn.
Geno at 4???..ughhh no thank you
Why reach for a QB at four when next year’s draft is rich in legit QB prospects.
You get the stud LT in this draft then get your franchise QB next year. The iggles are not a superbowl contender this year. There is no need to reach and rush the process. Just be patient and do this thing right..see Atlanta, Seattle, San Fran.
They took their time and built solid teams. Eagles need to go that route.
Fisher or Joeckel at 4 or trade down and draft Lane.
No need to reach in RD2 either. Neither of these QBs is BPA period.
RD1 BPA most likely LT
RD2 BPA most likely a DL
RD3-7 BPA TE,S,CB,LB,WR doesn’t matter .This team needs talent.End of discussion!
2014 do what’s necessary… move up..if you have to( ala WAS) get your franchise QB.
2015 Superbowl????….
Everyone keeps putting forth this theory that the Eagles can just move up like Washington did last year in order to secure a “franchise QB.” Saying that ignores the reality that the Redskins had to give up 3 first rounders and a second rounder just to move up 4 SPOTS. Unless you expect the Eagles to finish with a top 7-8 pick, trading up to get that caliber of QB will be impossibly expensive. One might even argue that the Redskins gave up too much for RG3
The thought is though that as of right now there could be upwards of 6 guys with first round grades.
I think the Rams’ haul is a trade for the ages. Kind of a black swan event. You had Shanahan desperate for a QB going into year 3 of his tenure with two miserable seasons behind him, and the Browns who had a QB situation almost as bad, but also 2 first rounders that year which led everybody including me to think “oh, it’s so obvious the Browns are going to trade for that pick”. The next best quarterback was figured to be a decent value in the teens, with quite a bit of variability in opinions. Basically a perfect storm of events that led the Redskins to offer that obscene amount of assets.
Julio was a big haul. heck, Ricky Williams didn’t cost chump change. Cleveland and Minesota swapped the 3rd and 4th pick, and I believe it cost a 7th, 5th and a 4th(and they didn’t pay that crazy amount of compensation for a QB, it was basically a swap of Kahlil and Trent)…..
When there is a premier, game changer to be had, it’s priceless.
Sure JJ was a big haul…to move up twenty spots instead of four. The RG3 thing might just be the new standard, but I doubt it. Both Cleveland and Washington have histories of lacking restraint and good judgment; though for Washington it appears they will not come out of it so bad. I would say in the case of Cleveland Trent Richardson would have to become Walter Payton to be worth what they invested, but I’m not a fan of taking a RB top 5.
Why can’t the Eagles move up? first of all, how many wins do you really think we will get this year? I think it’s safe to say that best case scenario we win 10 games. if we go 8-8…what’s that put you, in the 16-20 range? Clowney will most likely be the first pick. do we are talking about getting up to number two. everyone talks about how like Matt Barkley, these guys might fall off next year, but whet if they don’t? what If 4-5 of them have a good season? after Clowney is picked, you won’t see 4 QBs drafted with the next 4 picks. there will always be a bad team or two, acting in the top 5, that recently invested in a young QB, so they might choose a Jake Mathews or Lewan, pushing one of the Qbs back an additional spot..You could end up finding a QB that you love like Taj Boyd, at number 5…
.I’m not ok with taking a flier on Geno at #4(He has so many questions that it really makes taking him a complete crap shoot)…but when Chip Kelly Identifies a QB, that he absolutely has to have, I wouldnt care if we mortgaged an entire draft to get him…I don’t care if the redskins gave the Rams, every pick that they had… to get an RG3 Caliber QB is PRICELESS!!! I don’t want to draft a Qb this year, so that we can build this damn team, in case we have to mortgage our entire draft next year to get the guy we want….You can always make an offer that a team can’t refuse!
The only 3 good QBs next year is Bridgewater, Boyd and Murray. I dont like Manziel who is playing more like Vick then in the offense and he also got the best OT combo any QB is ever gonna have in college, Mariota would be best to stay one more year after this and Fales is a notch below the other.
Next year I think there will be a lot of teams in need of a QB in the Raiders, Cardinals, Jaguars, Titans, Jets, Browns, Chiefs and BIlls with a few more teams who could be interested depending on how they do this season. That means there are around 8 teams in dire need of a QB next season and all 8 should end worse or similar to the Eagles.
The momet a bad team drafts Geno smith, if Im howie, I immediately call them to congratulate them and remind them that they will suck again and find themselves in the top 5 next year, so be prepared to trade us that pick for our 1st, 2nd, 3rd and more if need be,. A franchise QB you believe in is invaluable. A bad team that just drafted Geno, wont be able to take a QB again next year..so even if you are right that there are only 3 QBs that are good(debate), Clowney is a sure fire top pick, so you just have to be able to get up to #4…Geno might be able to become a great QB, but I see very little chance he is ready to turn around a bad franchise as a rookie..an always go mafia style, and make a team they find dificult to refuse…since we have to be prepared to give up next years draft for a QB, I would use this draft to solidify ourselves on the Oline and front 7.
I have 2 theories on this whole “Geno at 4” thing. Either the Eagles are spreading this, trying to get another team to trade up to 1-3 to pick Geno, leaving the Eagles with a prospect they believe won’t currently make it this far. Or… One of the teams wants to trade back and is trying to make a team desperate to trade areas of the Eagles in order to get Geno. Of course the Eagles could actually really like him and just can’t keep that love from the rest of the world
That it could be another team using the Eagles is an interesting possibility.
If so, our VIP visit played right into their hands.
Well, when you put it that way…
Re: More Geno Smith (since he continues to be “the man”)
T-Law:
The most arresting comment I’ve heard from the NFL literati about Smith came from Mike Mayock. Specifically, regarding Smith’s pocket presence and ball security (sacks and fumbles).
Is Mayock on target? If so, do the problems lay with Smith, the O-line, or with the coaching staff?
Also, WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen has been GS’s head coach for 2 seasons, succeeding Bill Stewart.
What impact if any do you think the coaching change had on Smith’s development?
Also, if memory serves, some sort of problem existed between Stewart and Holglerson in the spring of 2011 (when DH because BS’s designated successor).
Impact of Smith? Was he seen by Holgerson as a Stewart guy?
Did Smith smoothly transition to DH?
Finally . . . what kind of offense did Stewart run? Better for GS or no?
Smith’s pocket presence is erratic. He held the ball too long at times. On some plays he’d climb the pocket and get off a good throw. It should be better for such a veteran, talented passer.
Coaching change probably helped. Holgorsen is a gifted offensive mind. I’ve not heard anything about Holgorsen having issues with Geno. Holgorsen is a fiery gameday coach and probably rode him hard at times, but that wasn’t personal so much as coach-QB.
Stewart succeeded RichRod and I think kept most of that offense (lots of running).Geno ran 106 times in 2010 (sacks + runs). He has 122 such plays in the last 2 years combined.
Didn’t he average 1 yard per carry? Lol
In college, sacks affect QB rushing totals.
Geno’s biggest problems came from Oct 13 of this year to Nov 17 and part of it was due to an awful defense and part of it due to Geno and the offense. Prior to that Geno had won 9 in a row including 2011 Orange Bowl win over Clemson. He also started off as hot as you possibly could with 24 tds and 0 ints through 5 games and few incompletions.
4 of the next 5 games all loses in Big 12, the opposing team scored 30 or more in the first half. The other game TCU won in double OT 39-38 on a two point conversion.
Prior to that Geno and WVU had won 9 in a row with DH going back to 2011 including Orange Bowl win over Clemson in 2011.
I’m not for or against Geno really. I really want them to improve other areas with that 4th pick (or trade down). I think he could be a good QB. Is he a top NFL QB in a league with a lot of good young QBs and some good vets?
Geno put up great numbers against below average defenses, including Clemson (all out of the top 50 in opposing QB rating and YPA), then struggled against the better defenses he faced. So people look at his great numbers and fail to see how much was a product of weak opponents and a pin ball offense (built around short passes to Austin and Bailey). It wasn’t that he lost those games, in too many of them he was MIA. RGIII had a defense as bad the year before (and Florence in 2012), so that’s a bogus excuse, top QBs shine in shootouts.
Put it this way, is there any reason to think he’s better than Kolb?
The response was to a question posed that Halgorsen coming in 2011 made Geno worse. Not sure what you’re talking about with RG3, Kolb. What do they have to do with Geno being affected by a coaching change in 2011?
I was focusing on his inflated numbers, and how they don’t reflect his actual quality as a QB. The fact that Florence, a first year starter who lacks NFL talent can put up similar numbers with lesser talent at Baylor suggests we can throw away stats for most college QBs. I’ve gotten to the point where I only look at performance against average or better college defenses, you can put up ridiculous numbers against below average college defenses that are misleading. In the old days, those games wouldn’t skew a QB’s stats, as they would get a lead and pound the rock – now they just keep throwing, resulting in 400 yard, 5-6 TD games.
Here’s my thing with Geno..He was doing his thing, than as soon as he started being talked about as the top qb in this draft class, he crumbled. I don’t care what he does on the field, it’s the way that he is wired that bothers me. First of all, Philly will hate his Demeanor..It’s a cross between Donovan McNabb and Rodney Peete…I don’t think this is the city for Geno…I could see him getting eaten alive by Philadelphia. the impression I get as to how he is wired, really bothers me…I think, a guy like Geno, if he was thrust into last years mess the way Foles was, it could have ruined him, and it’s possible he would have never recovered from last year…It’s the intangibles that scare the hell out of me. there is too much Talent to be had. I feel like drafting Geno is such a flier! the draft is never an exact science, but I can’t possibly have these many questions and issue about a prospect drafted #4…..Geno at 4 just sounds insane to me…but what do I know?
Nothing to do with Geno though for me but Donovan wasn’t hated and if some did that’s status quo for Eagles fan base. I wasn’t a huge fan of Donovan’s but I respect him as a QB.
I don’t think the talk about Smith’s disadvantages amounts to much more than just extra scrutiny, same as when people were talking down Cameron Newton and suggesting that Gabbert would be better. Smith was always going to be a very high draft pick and his addition would give the Eagles improved flexibility @ QB in the future. I don’t think he will be much of a drop off from Sam Bradford, if any–more durable, experienced in both pro and spread, less refined, slightly weaker arm. OTOH, Sam Bradford hasn’t lit the world on fire, and I’m not sure why. He has a good arm, good mechanics, doesn’t seem dumb or especially lacking in moxie. I don’t watch enough Rams games to be sure, and the Vikes-Rams game is my last view. I’m wondering whether it’s a skittish and streaky sort of thing that affects Big 12 QB stars–Gabbert, Bradford, Tannehill, and Weeden all tend to be conservative (with quite low TD%, somewhat low AY/A), somewhat skittish, and rather streaky in effectiveness. RG3 has not had problems being consistent or staying in the pocket effectively.
I typically stay away from trade scenarios and “what ifs” as mostly they are usually just fantasy with very little chance of happening in real life. But I keep thinking about a trade with the dolphins, it makes too much sense for both sides.
The dolphins have 2 2nd round picks and 2 3rd picks and said to love Fisher / Joeckel and have a major need at OT. The eagles could move back to 12, and 1 2nd round pick and 1 3rd pick, then target Tavon Austin at 12, and target players like E. Manuel, Z. Ertz, J. Pugh, T. Armstead, D. Slay, P. Thomas, M. Latimore in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. You could end up with 5 of these players rather than 3 of them.
There isn’t a defensive coordinator in the league that would be excited about having to figure out a way to stop a combination of DJax, Maclin, Shady, Austin, Brown, Ertz, Casey, Celek, Latimore (eventually) and some random 6’7″ wr that runs a 4.4 named Momah.
I also have a hunch that the eagles will draft a lot of offensive players this year, especially early. They went out and signed 6 defensive free agents and traded for 2 more. This is just a hunch.
With 75 players on the roster and currently nine Draft picks, do you expect more cuts before the Draft?
Why? That leaves us room for all the picks and 6 UDFAs, doesn’t it?
They signed at least 13 UDFAs last spring, so six open spots seems low.
Lots of studs. Studs, there are a lot of.
It seems like we’ve gone from ee cummings to Gertrude Stein..
Some want playmakers
Others want a new D-tackle
Geno is a stud
Loaded up on D
We need a new free safety
Joeckel is a stud
A stud is a stud is a stud…
Tom, you are the man. thanks for answering a few of my questions. the Coolest part about this site is that you always take the time to answer our questions, or break something down, without talking down to us. Much respect, and thank you for your great work
From the description you give, it doesn’t sound like Nassib offers much that Nick Foles doesn’t. I’d pass on him anywhere earlier than the 4th round (which he won’t make it to). If we’re going to draft a quarterback prospect in the early rounds, it should be a guy who has major upside if he can be coached up and put it all together (Matt Scott, E.J. Manuel, etc.).
X —
You are spot-on regarding Nassib.
In fact, if you compare Foles’ and Nassib’s combine/pro-day numbers, you’ll see that Foles is actually faster than Nassib. Though Nassib is quicker (shuttle).
Always wondered at the noise for him. Not NFL grade athlete/arm.
RE: J-Maclin
T-Law:
You mentioned in a comment regarding T-Ausin — if I read you right — that you expect the Eagles to let Maclin, a free agent after 2013, to be allowed to walk away.
First, did I read that right.
Second, is your projection based on the assumption that T-Austin is drafted by the Birds.
Third, if (1) and (2) and correct . . . why not trade Maclin now?
To Anyone . . .
Question about that “Draft Pick” game.
Why is EJ Manuel, who the game rates highly, seem to slide to the 5th round (in the handful of runs I’ve done).
Crazy.