More on Matt Barkley
Posted: May 1st, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 120 Comments »Let’s take a more in-depth look at the player the Eagles traded up for and drafted in the 4th round (pick 98):
Matt Barkley
USC
6-3, 227
40 – 4.91
Hands – 10 1/8
Key accomplishments:
* 4-year starter at USC. Also started all 4 years in high school, at major powerhouse Mater Dei.
* 34-13 record as starter at USC
* Barkley set Pac-12 career records for passing yards (12,327), completions (1,001), touchdowns (116) and total offense (12,214) as he won the 2012 Wuerffel Trophy, was a finalist for the Manning Award, Unitas Golden Arm Award, Senior CLASS Award and ARA Sportsmanship Award and was a National Football Foundation National Scholar-Athlete. USC’s first-ever 3-time captain, he set 20 USC career, season and game records (10 were Pac-12 standards). Last fall, he completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,273 yards and 36 TDs.
Barkley is a talented QB with NFL ability, but he is not a sure thing to even become a starter, let alone a good starter. There is a reason that Barkley fell down to the 4th round. Great value or not, he was still the 98th pick in a league that is so desperate for good QBs that teams were happy to acquire Matt Cassel, David Garrard, and Chase Daniel this offseason.
Let’s talk about what we know with Barkley. He has great experience. He played for a tough coach in Lane Kiffin. Barkley played in a system that combines elements of the WCO and the spread. He threw a ton of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (LOS). Barkley benefited from his extremely talented WRs racking up run-after-catch (RAC) yards. The flip side is that Barkley got the ball out quickly and accurately so that the receivers could then make plays for him. He wasn’t throwing lollipops out wide and then watching them just run 50 yards against low-level competition.
Let’s talk about competition for just a second. USC is one of a handful of schools that has never played a I-AA (FCS) opponent. They play league games and regional or big time opponents. Barkley played in 11 games this year. 8 of the defenses he faced finished in the Top 50 in the nation. By comparison, Geno Smith faced 4 such defenses. EJ Manuel faced 5 of them (in 14 games). Smith played one game vs I-AA competition (James Madison). Manuel’s first 2 games of the year were against Murray State and Savannah State. FSU won by a total of 124-3. Say what you want about Barkley, but he has played good competition.
Now for the breakdown:
Accuracy – Good. Barkley is an accurate passer. Please don’t mention completion percentage. That’s not what we’re talking about. An accurate QB puts the ball in a specific spot, time after time. Chip Kelly unloaded a new phrase on us the other day – repetitive accuracy. That’s exactly right. The point is that you want a QB who will get the ball to his receivers the same way over and over so that they know where to expect it. That helps the receivers get their hands in position to make the grab. The goal is for the receiver to catch the ball on the move so that he can then get RAC yards. Most QBs are taught to aim for a player’s midsection. Drew Brees has an interesting theory. He aims for a receiver’s eyes. He says they will never lose sight of the ball that way.
Kelly likes Barkley’s accuracy quite a bit. And he should. Barkley consistently puts the ball out in front of his receivers so that they can catch it on the run. I was surprised at how good Barkley is with some intermediate and even deep balls. He is very good with fade routes down the sideline. Barkley truest his receivers to make a play and will put the ball right there on them and the DB. His deep accuracy is inconsistent, but as a point of reference it is much better than Nick Foles from 2011.
My favorite passes from Barkley came on throws to the sideline. He put the ball behind the CB and in front of the S. He would even do this vs man coverage when the WR was covered. These throws had a combination of touch and velocity. Great play and a pass that Barkley threw as well as anyone could.
Arm Strength – Average. Too many people rip Barkley as if he has a terrible arm. That’s not the case. He has an average arm. He actually is a better deep passer than most realize. The key there is that he can use his lower body to help generate throwing power. There was a play in the 2nd half of the Utah game where Barkley threw the ball from his 9-yard line to Marqise Lee and Lee caught it at the Utes 32-yard line. That ball traveled 59 yards in the air. Lee had to slow down at the last second, but that was a good deep ball. Barkley does have more underthrown deep balls than you’d like. You’ll see his WRs slow down for the ball and make the catch. Good result, but still an underthrown pass.
To me, the bigger issue is that some of Barkley’s intermediate throws lack the kind of velocity you’d prefer. This led to some INTs and incompletions. Defenders have a chance to jump routes that they shouldn’t be able to get to. There was a play in one game when Barkley drifted to his left. He saw a WR open over the middle. Barkley didn’t have time to turn his body and step into the throw. He was parallel to the LOS and threw with an odd motion. The pass was right on the money and complete, but had little velocity to it. In the NFL, a DB would likely get to that pass. He will have to adjust to NFL game speed. I don’t think Barkley has the arm strength to throw from different platforms and get the ball to his targets quickly.
Barkley is an excellent touch passer and there are times when he’s trying to throw a catchable pass rather than a bullet. It will be interesting to see if Barkley adjusts this in the NFL and tries to put more velocity on his throws.
Pocket Presence – Inconsistent. Barkley at times is a savvy veteran that moves around pretty well and is able to buy time. There are other plays when he shows no feel for rushers being near him. The USC offensive line was a mess in 2012 so it was tough to get a feel for him based on that. Put on the Stanford game and you’ll see the OL just getting manhandled. Barkley isn’t afraid of sitting in the pocket when under duress. In fact, there are times when he’s too tough and would be wiser to move around.
Athleticism – Average. Barkley isn’t going to scare anyone with his mobility, but he ran a respectable 40 time. Barkley ran for 6 career TDs. Geno Smith had 4, Landry Jones 3, and Ryan Nassib 5. Those guys are all pocket passers. Barkley can throw on the run. USC did a lot with bootlegs and Barkley is effective on them. I wouldn’t call it a strength, though. Barkley isn’t very elusive when trying to get away from rushers, but he does know how to slide. He will run when there is room and no better option, but don’t expect more than a few yards. His long run at USC was 27 yards.
Mechanics – Good. Barkley has played under Center and in the shotgun. He never played in a pure spread offense so he understands how to take snaps, drop back, set, and throw the ball. His motion is fluid and natural. His footwork is good. There aren’t wasted steps. He doesn’t have busy feet. Barkley is smart enough to adjust his body when making different throws. He’ll adjust his release point depending on if he wants the ball high or low. Barkley doesn’t have a cannon for an arm so he does a good job of stepping into throws to help drive the ball. Way too many QBs are casual with their feet and make arm throws. Barkley has been well-coached over the years and it shows. Barkley does a good job with play fakes. He extends the ball to the RB to sell the run action.
Instincts/Reading Coverage/Decision-Making – This category is really hard to judge without seeing coaches tape and knowing the USC offense really well. From a simplistic level, I see Barkley generally finding the open receiver. There are times when Barkley makes a mistake and puts a ball into coverage. Some times these are aggressive throws, but I also saw some where Barkley didn’t see a defender and flat out made a bad read. Barkley was too aggressive at times. He isn’t afraid to put the ball into a tight window. You like the fact that he’s fearless, but he threw 48 career INTs and that’s too many. Geno Smith and Ryan Nassib combined to throw 49 career picks.
One of Barkley’s biggest strengths is also a major weakness. He doesn’t like to give up on plays. This led to him taking some dumb chances. When defenders got into the backfield, Barkley’s internal clock sped up a bit, but he kept looking downfield. There are some plays where he would throw the ball away as he was being hit or slung to the ground. Dumb, dumb, and dumb. Take the sack. Don’t risk the turnover. Eli Manning is the best QB I’ve ever seen at doing this and getting away with it. Ben Roethlisberger is up there, but he does fumble too much. Barkley didn’t fumble much at all, but if he tries that stuff in the NFL, he’s going to be in trouble.
In defense of Barkley, he went into a lot of games knowing that he had to score a lot of points. The USC defense ranged from average to awful during his tenure. The running game was mediocre. That meant Barkley and the passing attack had to make plays. Barkley was 8-8 in games where USC scored 24 points or less. He knew that points had to be scored and that meant being aggressive and taking chances.
I don’t have stats for Barkley as a Red Zone passer, but he passed the eye test. He showed the ability to make quick reads and get the ball out immediately or to give his guys time to get open. I didn’t see reckless throws or decisions in the RZ. Barkley threw 116 career TDs. The only active QB with more is Landry Jones (123) and he played in 5 more games.
I also like the fact that Barkley gave his receivers a chance to make plays. He would put the ball near them when single-covered, knowing that he had talented WRs that could go get the ball. Think about the Super Bowl and the 3rd down pass that Joe Flacco made to Anquan Boldin. Flacco threw to a covered WR, but Boldin went up and got the ball. That was a huge play. It wasn’t a high percentage play, but you must be able to take chances like that in some situations. Barkley got to play with skilled receivers in college and that will serve him well in the NFL.
Intangibles – Very good. I cannot stress this enough. Matt Barkley is not Mark Sanchez or Matt Leinart. Those guys played at USC with complete teams that could dominate. Sanchez was only the starter for one full season. USC had the #2 defense in the nation and the #22 running game. In Leinart’s 3 years as a starter…he lost a total of 2 games. Those teams were loaded with great college talent (and some pretty good NFL talent). Barkley had defenses that ranked 40th, 54th, 84th, and 60th. The rushing attack was 44th, 25th, 53rd, and 71st. It was up to Barkley to carry USC in his time there.
Sanchez and Leinart also played at USC in the glamour days. Snoop Dogg was there at practice. Will Ferrell was on the sideline at games. Life was good. Life was fun. Barkley was there when the glamour was gone and football was the focus. Leinart stayed at USC for his Senior year despite having a chance to be a high pick. He took one class…ballroom dancing. Leinart wanted to enjoy the good life for another year. He was dating gorgeous SoCal babes, learning to dance, and playing football. Heck, that’s a lifestyle that NFL players would be jealous of.
Barkley showed great leadership after his Freshman season when Carroll left and things started to get ugly. Barkley went to the football office and got a list of recruits. He called them to let the guys know he was staying and that he wanted the guys to still come to USC. There was no coach in place. There were rumors of NCAA sanctions coming down. Barkley was doing everything in his power to keep things together. He was the leader of the program and wasn’t even a Sophomore. Think about where you were at that time in your life. Could you have done that? I had a hard time getting to Friday classes after Thursday night drinking.
I don’t want to paint Barkley out to be a saint, but his family seems to have done a good job of keeping him grounded. They have stayed active in charity work over the years. Back in 2010, with no bowl game to go to, Barkley took a trip to Nigeria during Christmas break. That’s no joke. He went to do some help with a missionary that was friends with his mom.
We’re always judging players from far away so one can never be sure, but Barkley sure looks like the kind of guy you would trust as your franchise QB. He’s smart, driven, successful, and doesn’t project the glamour boy image that other USC QBs did.
SUMMARY
Projecting Barkley to the NFL is tough. I could see him having a terrific career or getting stuck as a career backup. I don’t doubt that he’ll be in the league for a while. He loves football and seems like the kind of guy who will do whatever he can to stick around. I do question if he’s got the physical ability to be a good starter. Put him in the right situation and I think he’s got a chance.
We don’t yet know what Chip Kelly’s offense will look like. We anticipate lots of quick throws and plays designed to create 1-on-1 matchups. There will also be plenty of running the ball. If that is the case, Barkley is a good fit. He’s not going to hit DeSean Jackson 60 yards down the field very often, but Barkley will get the ball out quickly on short throws and give the Eagles talented receivers a chance to make plays for him.
Kelly will give all his QBs a chance to show what they can do. Barkley has the experience to step in right away and challenge for a job, but I don’t expect him to beat out the competition. It would be a great story if it happens, but don’t count on it. Barkley has never faced competition like this, either in terms of the defenses he’ll face or the players he’ll battle for the QB job.
I know many people are going to talk about the fact Barkley was just a 4th round pick and how it is rare that those guys pan out. There is an x-factor here. The Eagles had a higher grade on him. Back in 2000 the Patriots got Tom Brady in the 6th round, but they had him rated much higher. Brady wasn’t your typical 6th round QB. Barkley isn’t your typical 4th rounder. I had Brady rated as a 2nd rounder back then. I had Barkley rated as a 3rd rounder this year. I’m not comparing the players, but rather the circumstances around them and where they got drafted. I liked Tom Brady a lot back then. I’m more ambivalent about Barkley. I hope he pans out in the NFL, but don’t feel overly confident that it will happen.
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I watched Gruden’s QB Camp with Barkley after the draft. I was a bit disappointed in the episode. Gruden got stuck discussing protection, but it was frustrating because Barkley explained the play in question very well. Barkley told Gruden what the defense was, what the protection was, and what went wrong. The LT missed an assignment. The rest of the offense did their job correctly.
I did like the fact that Gruden was beating it into Barkley’s head that he needs to make his teammates focus on protection. Gruden showed some good blocks by the RB and told Barkley that he should be praising the heck out of the guy for plays like that. Those blocks are crucial.
My favorite part came when Gruden was focused on a simple play. It is a play-action pass where the FB goes to the flat and there are a couple of players downfield. Gruden showed the play in the Arizona game. It was 4th/2 and in scoring territory. The FB was wide open in the flat. Barkley threw downfield for the TE, who wasn’t able to make the catch. Gruden lectured Barkley on making the smart read and going for the FB. As he said, “You’ll never go broke making a profit.” Great line. If you have an open receiver, get him the ball. Don’t force the situation and go for big plays when you’ve got easy yards right there for the taking.
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How does Barkley do with the Bill Parcells QB requirements?
The candidate must be a senior.
The candidate must be a college graduate, and he must hold a 4 year degree.
The candidate must have a B average or better in school.
The candidate must have been a 3 year starter in college.
The candidate must have made 30 starts in college.
The candidate must have 23 victories in college.
The candidate must impress us as a strong leadership figure
The candidate must be strongly recommended by his head coach.
The candidate cannot have a rap-sheet, or run-ins with the law.
Barkley meets all of the requirements that we know of. The only question we have is whether Lane Kiffin gave him a strong recommendation. I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen.
There is a new system some believe in. 26-27-60.
The QB prospect needs to score 26 or higher on the Wonderlic, win 27 or more games in college, and complete 60 percent or higher of his passes. We don’t know Barkley’s Wonderlic score, but he seems like a bright young man and I’d be surprised if he was below that. He meets the other two requirements.
* * * * *
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Barkley is the perfect example of two things: 1) low risk, high reward, and 2) BPA.
On a slightly broader topic, Ron Wolfley on 620 AM in Phx brought up an interesting thought on the Eagles QB situation: a 2-QB system. Foles/Barkley as a traditional QB & Vick/Dixon as the read-option guys. I don’t really buy into it, but it’s an interesting thought going w/ 4 QBs, 1 backup for each “type” of QB. Again, this means giving up a special teams spot and I can’t imagine it’s the case, but it is intriguing.
It seems like 2 QB’s has failed in the NFL, BUT, does anyone know if Kelly did any of that in college? Also, if you’re running an up-tempo offense, can you rotate in QB’s or is that foolish?
Or is it a series by series switch?
Either way, I remain skeptical… if only because if the offense staggers, it’s the first thing people point to.
Won’t happen. There will be a single QB running the show. We will mix in some Wildcat type stuff if the right players are on the roster and it works well. That’s just a small package, though.
Chip said in one of his interviews this week (I think with Michael Barkann) that he doesn’t believe in a 2 QB system
4 QBs is to many imo. We are already stacked on offensive players.
Tommy, what do you think about the word from Shepard that they got potential wildcat packages for him? I mean he was that kinda of dual threat in high school, but just seems weird they would design packages around an UDFA or Kelly is really in love with the potential of Shepard?
The most interesting I learned from that whole pft thing was that Shepard sees himself contributing as a RB, WR, wildcat QB, kickoff returner, punt returner, and gunner. I don’t think he has that competitive edge Tommy was talking about if he is just going to sit around while the defense is on the field.
Sounds like a recruiting pitch to get him to sign with them. He’s still just a udfa and a significant dog just to make the final roster.
Absolutely, on both counts. And despite his poor choice with the press, he is an underdog I will be rooting to claim a spot.
I heard Kelly say specifically that he has never had 2 QB’s and that he doesn’t really believe that can work. He said it in an interview with Barkann. I don’t remember the quote exactly, but he basically said that you never have 2 QB’s that are exactly the same to make it work and that he has never had to do it because where ever he has been there has always been one QB that has separated himself from the others.
Are you in Phoenix? Summer is here, man.
What about the junior Kiffin’s playcalling and offense in general. I know some USC fans who think he’s horrendous. Did you notice it holding back or hindering Barkley in any way?
Mixed feelings on the offense, but I can’t say it held Barkley back from what I saw.
Tommy,
Can a fan ever get access to ‘All 22’ tape? Seems like the NFL goes out of its way to keep it from us!
All 22 tape of college or the NFL?
All-22 tape is available for NFL games. Does cost money.
No such luck with college.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3740097
You know it is kind of messed up that you attack Leinart like that, I mean it could be true he wanted to stay for the glamour. But this article is a good one and states a bunch of reasons why he didn’t declare for the draft.
I loved Matt coming out of USC, but he has shown that he wasn’t ready for the NFL. I learned my lesson with him. The PR machine sold us Leinart from every possible angle. He got to the NFL and was exposed in a big way. Pro football is a tough, competitive business.
I have never met Leinart and clearly don’t know anything for 100 percent fact, but the guy showed NFL talent at USC. He’s got the size. Seems to me that mental and emotional toughness are the things he lacked. And I think spending a Senior season playing on a great team, dating a hot chick, and going to ballroom dancing classes 2 nights a week is bound to make you soft. Remember that he had the incident in Arizona where he was at the lake drinking with the underage girls? That’s an extension of the college party scene.
Cade McNown fell victim to a similar situation when he came out. I loved him and thought he was going to be an NFL star, but he was more focused on the Playboy centerfold he was dating than his playbook. Guys who succeed in the NFL have some kind of an edge, and that’s usually something they bring from college.
Aaaaah, reminds me of the time Christian Ponder took time off in the middle of the season to get married…memories…
/me heads off to pump IRON.
Loving the game seems an absolutely essential quality for a guy to have to succeed as an NFL quarterback.
Guys who succeed are almost inevitably maniacal workers who love to play the game (Brady, Brees, Aaron Rogers, McNabb, Steve McNair, the Mannings, etc.).
Guys who seem to love what playing football brings them more than they love football itself (Leinart, Sanchez, Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, etc.) are almost inevitably busts.
Tommy,
Barkley’s scouting report sounds a bit like Kevin Kolb’s. I don’t mean that to be a knee-jerk negative reaction; I actually liked Kolb as a prospect. At first blush, it seems like Barkley’s main advantages are experience with higher levels of competition/pro style offense, but Kolb likely was the more physically gifted of the players. The arm strength/accuracy/inconsistent pocket presence bits all sound pretty similar, though. Can you compare/contrast the 2 at all?
Kolb was definitely the better athlete. I was very high on him. Barkley faced better competition. Neither guy had a great arm.
Thanks Tommy. You make me happier than the six packs of PBRs I drink ironically, being in the Pacific NW.
It also sounds a bit like Tom Brady’s (limited athlete, so-so arm, great accuracy and intangibles). Not saying Barkley will be the next Brady – odds are he won’t. But we can’t write Barkley off based solely on what the scouts say.
Tommy
How does Foles match up to Parcells’ requirements and 26 – 27 – 60 rule?
I’ll have to look into that a bit.
Nick did score 29 on the Wonderlic. Did complete more than 60% of his passes. Didn’t win 27 games. Less than 20.
Looking into that myself. Hard to find some of the personal info. Arizona won 19 games while Foles was there. I don’t know which ones he actually started in because he was injured at times
Silly rule, winning games is more a matter of playing for the right team, a great QB still won’t win a lot of games at Vanderbilt.
Barkley has the edge in accuracy, but 2012 is the first time he had a subpar OL (he had two high NFL draft picks before then), while Foles has dealt with pressure in Arizona and Philly and is a lot more comfortable in a pocket with people flying by him.
Comes down to whether Barkley improves his pocket presence or Foles improves his mechanics and accuracy.
For someone that disagrees with me, that last sentence…is…exactly…it. WRT to Foles, just getting that ball out FASTER is what he needs to do. He can’t be looking for wide-open guys when he’s not doing a short pass. Gotta pass into NFL windows against good defensive backfields.
Dude if Foles is slow getting the ball out than how slow is Vick?
Slowest in the league, according to the numbers I read.
Believe whatever that gets you through the day, but Vick has a snap release, and when he’s not waiting for some long routes, he gets out the ball very fast. That lovely little catch and run with DJax trolling the Dallas secondary doesn’t happen with Foles, remember DJax had to burn his man after the catch…and it wouldn’t have happened if Vick didn’t get it right out there, BAM.
Man what season were you watching. Vick does have a quick release but thats not the same thing as getting rid of the ball quickly. Vick waited for receivers to get open rather than anticipating when and where the receivers would be open. You can have a quick release but it won’t help you if you hold on to the ball too long.
Chip is all about creating Blatant mismatches that lead to defined throws for the QB, trying to make the Game easier for the QB…Vick is wired to try and be superman…If a play is designed to get Casey wide open for a 5yard gain, and Desean is a decoy going deep…Vick will ignore the wide open 5 yard throw, to throw to the decoy Deep, if he has a step on the CB……
……
I think that with Chip Kelly at the healm, and all these skill weapons in place around the QB, a game manager like Trent Dilfer could find success in this offense… Im very excited to see Nick and Matt, learn the offense inside out, read defenses, and take advantage of the obvious mismatches our simplistic mastermind will create for us
What this guy said. It doesn’t matter how quickly you throw the ball if it takes you 3+ seconds to realize what the defense is doing. Foles is MUCH better at anticipation than Vick. Mechanically, Vick is superior. It is really too bad Vick that the light has never gone on for Vick……let’s give him one more year, I am sure it will work this time.
uhhhhh vick fans sure like to distort reality……….I think by Far, Vick has the most annoying fanbase in sports…Too much Madden!!!
Really? More annoying than Tebow fans?
Wow. I thought Foles was a new beginning around here. Maybe I need to re-watch the end of 2012 sober.
For what it is worth we have been watching QBs (McNabb, Vick) wait for WRs to be OPEN since 2000. I thought Foles was the first starter I have seen in years anticipate and get the ball out on time. Not that he was great at it. But even a little anticipation is better than what we were used to.
Vick has an incredible arm with a catchable ball. His spiral is legendary.
DMac had a cannon with a not so catchable ball. (And lots of dead worms… )
Neither of those dudes has ever “Thrown a WR open”
Last dude that could throw someone open to play for the Eagles was probably Garcia.
Anticipation is a gift and a curse. It is essential to be elite. But until you become elite, you can be pretty bad, throwing a lot of picks. The best example of this is Eli Manning. One year he throws a ton of INT’s and is a total goat, the next season he more or less carries his team to a Superbowl victory. Also there are certain CB’s that feast on anticipation throwing (Asante, he had both Manning bro’s number). I don’t know chip will want Foles on the field to see if he perfects this skill, as I said, it can be pretty rough.
Can’t vouch for it’s accuracy but these were the “leaked” Wonderlics for the QBs in this draft:
1. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 41
2. Matt Barkley, USC 30
3. E. J. Manuel, Florida State 28
3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma 28
5. Mike Glennon, N.C. State 26
6. Tyler Bray, Tennessee 24
6. Geno Smith, West Virginia 24
6. Zac Dysert, Miami (Ohio) 24
9. Matt Scott, Arizona 22
10. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas 20
They seem plausible enough and most of the time those wonderlic leaks are true. If true he also fits the 26-27-60 test
Just want to say thanks for another amazing post Tommy. You are a blessing for every Eagles fan!
Thanks.
Eagles haven’t had a really accurate passer other than Ty Detmer in my adult lifetime. I really hope to see one before I die. Maybe Matt Barkley is The One.
Many NFL QBs don’ have cannons for arms. In fact, the best generally don’t. Perhaps not having one forces them to develop more intelligence.
I am very skeptical of USC QBs but will hope for the best. I still think Foles is the 2013 QB. Mike Vick’s best years are behind him and it’s time to move on.
QBs with “rocket” arms tend to get in a lot of trouble (Favre, Cutler, Vick, Jeff George, etc.). Give me a smart QB with an “average” arm (like any of us could ever dream of throwing it that hard) any day.
Cant run a hurry up offense if you are throwing incompletions 50yards down the field…How long does it take Vick to grasp that concept?
2013 Roll with Foles!
This is a good piece on Matt Barkley
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2012/futures-usc-qb-matt-barkley
He also test out well according to LFC
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/lewin-career-forecast-2013
I get the selection of Matt being there in the fourth and I concur, great value, but I’m still concerned about approx. 2/3 of our defense.
Yeah I think our defense will be marginally better. We’ll have to see how Graham and Cole handle their new positions. Plus with supposedly new scheme changes, the defense will probably give us all stomach aches this upcoming season
I do not expect to see a top defense, but I do expect much improvement from the quitting, blown assignments, lack of discapline that we saw last year….Its so early to talk about it, but we could possibly have a young future starter at every position, who today have the potential to develope into a quality starter to a probowler:
….
Pred: Brandon Graham
3Tec: Cox
NT: Bennie Logan
5Tec: Paul Kruger
Sam: Barwin
WIL: Kendricks
mLB: Demeco
LCB: Cary Will
RCB: Fletcher/Poyer
S: Phillips
S: Wolff
Joker: Curry
For all we know, those players can develope and Gel into a stud defense by 2015. Of course for that to happen, these guys are going to have to reach most of their ceilings and some are Long shots, others require some luck with injuries…Heres hoping we have the coaching, and these kids have the Charecter to reach their potential. i think we all learned the hard way that you dont form a good defense overnight, so its going to take a while for these players to Gels
An they are probably going to have stomach aches from being on the field so much.
One fear I have is that while our offense is going to run more plays than anyone else in the league our defense is going to be worn out by October.
Hopefully we figure out a plan for this… I am not saying I have the right formula because I don’t.
I was pretty tired of genius and gurus at the end of the Reid Era. Lets hope common sense wins out in the Kelly Era.
Agree. Considering the nonexistent or intensely mediocre NFL track record most of the players on D possess, the number of new players and coaches, and the fact that CK’s offense will drive up the number of plays, I would not be surprised if the D gives up 500 points.
I think Gruden stole that one from Andrew Luck when they were famously discussing Spider 2Y Banana (a play where Luck would often find his FB wide open in the flat). Either that or Luck was just repeating it to Gruden and it got edited out.
I’ve heard the phrase before. Could be that’s where.
youtu.be/a20YDM8xb3M
The way Luck points indicates that he picked the phrase up from Gruden.
T-Law:
A few observations, for what they’re worth as you’ll see.
______________
First, you mention that Barkley’s yardage number benefits from his WRs’ RAC yards.
But — as you point out later — one of Barkley’s strengths (if I read you correctly) is his ability to hit receivers on the move so they could generate RAC yards.
Seems like, even accounting for WR screens, Barkley’s yardage number shouldn’t be discounted too much because he was good at creating RAC opportunities
_______________
Second, if you toss out Barkley’s freshman season (along with Manuel’s and Nassib’s), his TD-to-INT ratio was 3-1. Versus 2.3-to-1 for Nassib. And 2-1 for Manuel.
Peyton Manning was 2.8-1. Drew Brees — in Joe Tiller’s then-innovative “spread offense” — was exactly 2-1, including 45 INTs in 4 seasons as a starter.
So, yes, Barkley threw a lot of INTs. But he attempted more passes. And if — as I said — you discard his “rookie season,” he’s got some pretty impressive figures.
Helped, to be sure, by some very good WRs
________________
I chuckled at the new 26-27-60 formula.
Dan Marino’s Wonderlic was 16, or 15 depending on your source. But it seems in the NFL he never let his intellect interfere with his instinct.
Marino was a 4-year starter for the then dominant (and independent) Pitt Panthers under Coach Jackie Sherrill, winning 42 games.
His completion percentage was under 58%. And his TD-INT ratio was 1.15-to-1.
Those were considered pretty darn good numbers at the time (1980-83).
___________________
Joe Montana’s college career (’75, ’77-’78): 25 TDs, 25 INTs.
The game has surely changed.
___________________
By the way, all the foregoing data proves there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
The truth is — as Russell Wilson proved — we won’t know anything until Barkley gets out on the field.
And if, perhaps miraculously, the Eagles’ running game and defense parallel what the Seahawks did in 2012 . . . then Barkley could not only start but win.
One think that struck me about Wilson last year was how deep his drop was — which created better passing lanes and more pocket space — and the good pass-pro Seattle’s line seemed to give him.
The doesn’t sound like what Chipper has planned. But it sure worked up in the northwest.
I like Nick Foles. And I’m rooting for him.
But I’m hoping Barkley turns out to be someone special.
Vince Young would argue that you shouldn’t completely discount the Wonderlick for QBs, but, regardless, I think Marino proves that is certai Lu valuable for GMs.
The game has changed greatly from when Montana and Marino played in college. INTs were common back then since the WR screen didn’t exist. Throws were downfield.
Barkley actually didn’t attempt all that many more passes.
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2012/Internet/career/careerPassB7.html
Wonderlic is like any IQ test. Nobody is really sure what they say about anything.
T-Law:
By the way . . . I get the impression that you’ve presented us with the kind of lengthy, detailed, and exacting scouting report an NFL GM would expect (and receive) in setting up the draft board.
It was really exciting.
Thank you.
The more I think about Barkley, the less I liked the pick. QB is a position that you need a first round grade. Second round and lower simply isn’t good enough.
That’s not true. Why do you need a first round QB? You might as well say you need 1st round talent for each position
It’s about percentages. For the most part, the successful QBs are first round picks or early second, moreso than the other positions. I just think the Eagles had a better chance of finding a productive player in another position with the 4th round pick than getting something special from a QB.
You say “for the most part, successful QBs are first round picks or early second.” Is that really true? Couldn’t you also say, “for the most part, QBs who go bust are first round picks?”
Sheil Kapadia just tweeted something relevant. Since 2008, 38 QBs have been drafted in the third round or later. Of those 38, the only starting caliber QB is Russell Wilson.
I know it’s speculation, but look at the current elite QBs. Only Brady and Wilson are the only legitimate ones drafted after round 2. Later round QBs don’t amount to much and for a team that has many holes, the Eagles needed other positions.
For a backup? That’s not bad at all. How quickly people forget A.J. Feeley. Generally you’re hoping for a rotational guy or a backup with a 4th round pick: If Barkley can come in and win or “not lose” a handful of games as a backup he’ll be worth it.
I guess I’m of the opinion that a backup QB is a luxury that the Eagles can’t afford and the chances of getting a productive 4th rounder in another position are much better than getting a capable starting QB in round 4.
Heck just look at Matt flynn…the guy is still being traded for Value, all off of 1 game, sorrounded by a GREAT offense, 3 teams ago…3 years from now, a tyler Wilson could be forgotten…Lost in the Shuffle….If anything, Barkley has a BIG NAME that people will remember…All it takes is the starter getting hurt, Barkley coming in, and having 1 good game, then back to the bench before the world can see his faults….that 1 game, can end up getting you atleast a 2nd round pick in a trade…Heck, his big Name alone, is worth a 2nd rounder to a team like the Jets lol…
……
Leading up to the draft, if someone would have told me, I have an inside source, and the Eagles are going to draft Matt Barkley, I would have probably punched that guy in the face lol…but never once did I even imagine or consider Barkley being on the board at 98…It was a very valuable pick, in so many different ways..All Barkley needs to do, is become a capable backup that wont blow games when called upon…worst case scenario, I think he can certainly be that,.,.but there is a chance he can provide alot more, starter, trade bait etc….I think he has way more value/potential than Kirk cousin(who everyone thinks was a good pick).,..
..
Howie Alluded to his upbringing under the loving wings of “Nickles” and the “KC Fatman” …Lets say, best case scenario, Barkley turns into Drew Brees AND Foles turns into Big Ben…I dont think we will ever stop seeing Howie, pull the trigger on a QB in a spot where he presents great value, its how he was raised in this organization. He saw the fleecing of AJ Feely, he was there for the Kolb embezzlement…A QB doesnt ever have to play for you to provide value…No matter how many great QBs we already have in the future, Howie wont ever stop drafting more…just too valuable!
I don’t think draft position means a lot in this case. It seemed like the perfect storm for all of the QBs to drop this year. Buffalo was the only team that HAD to take a QB early. 15 teams have taken QBs in the first three rounds of the last two drafts (if you count Pryor) so there are a lot of teams already committed to a young guy. If last year’s NFL teams were drafting against this year’s class, Barkley may have been a first rounder. Ind, Was, Mia, and Cle all really needed a QB.
Not saying Barkley is going to be great, just saying that a big part of where he (and the other QBs) was drafted was due to how few teams were interested in taking a QB early. Same as Locker going 8th in 2011 doesn’t necessarily make him a top 10 talent.
Eagles had a 2nd round grade on him. Which is to say they feel like he is quite capable of being a starter or a very nice back-up. A young back-up can also be traded for something much nicer than a 4th round pick in the future. It’s a very nice pick to make in the 4th round in the sense that they weren’t anointing anybody a franchise player in the 4th round.
Anybody see the articles about why the cowboys passed on Floyd at 18? Apparently, Floyd was not a fit for the 4-3 and decision was made (by Jerry and Stephen) to trade down and hope they could get Justin Pugh. It seems like the Scouts weren’t to happy about the move.
This story is interesting because I remember Caplan saying that the reason Floyd fell was because he was not a fit for a 4-3 team and yet the Cowboys say the skipped on Floyd because he was fit for a 3-4 but not a 4-3. Weird.
weird that Jerry doesnt know wtf he is talking about yet is such an ego maniac that he goes against the advice of his scouts? really? sounds perfectly normal Jerr-uhy behavior to me…We should send him a thank you note for keeping Floyd out of our division in favor of a 5th round center..lol…I think Snyder went back to being Snyder misfiring on Amerson…
Yeah sounds like a spin job for the Cowboys. The Vikings are a 4-3 team and couldn’t wait to draft Floyd. Supposedly the Cowboys only wanted Warmack, Cooper or Vaccaro. They had a 1st round grade on Floyd (7th on their big board) but decided to trade back because the coaches said he would not be a fit.
you gotta love having them in our division…I seriously question the priorities of ANY free agent that signs on with Team Jerry
Really feel for Garret. Jerry has basically made him into a lame duck coach. The Cowboys have serious problems ahead of them and are just kicking those issues down the road. They draft poorly, the cap situation is a mess and the cornerstones of their team (Romo and Ware) are getting old. Instead of trying to rebuild they act as if they are a few players away from winning the SB.
Sounds like the 2011 Eagles.
“Really feel for Garret.”
Now that’s just silly.
“Really feel for Garret.”
Garret gets what he deserves. He is a Cowboy Lifer. A permanent YES boy for JJ. He has been in JJs back pocket since the early 90s. He was a Lame Duck when he was holding a clipboard for Aikmen.
The best thing about the Cowboys is that it looks like Stephen Jones is much more involved. And he is just a s crazy a his Dad. This means the Cowboys can continue to hold the place in the NFL previously held by the Raiders.
Long live Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones.
Can you tell I don’t like the Cowboys?
Best part of Gruden QB camp with Barkley was when he told him “Don’t get bored of success” when you talked about the RB throw. #Wisdom
That was a great line.
Best case scenario, Foles drastically improves, wipes the floor with Vick during camp, while Barkley impresses enough for Chip to feel comfortable making Matt #2…After a few weeks of looking at Geno and Sanchez, Vick will start looking like Warren Moon to them…Then again, just the fact that it will command the NY headlines is enough to get a 5th rounder from the Jets…Wonder what Jerry Jones thinks about Vick? Give up a 2nd rounder to turn Vick into the most Dynamic Punter ever!!!
I’m noticing a trend with your posts…
Its confession time, post some of your draft predictions that have gone terribly wrong over the years, for better or for worse!
I’ll start:
In 2009 we needed a running back when the Brian Westbrook era coming to an end. Going into the draft there were a few RB’s who were likely to go high, I believe they were Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells and Lesean Mccoy. Of all the running backs in the draft Mccoy was the one I really didn’t want and was very disappointed when we drafted him. Oops.
In 2008 I predicted that we’d use our 2nd rounder on Trevor Laws, and lo and behold my prediction came true. I was super stoked and was certain Trevor’s style of play and wrestling background would help him anchor our line for years. Oops.
To give myself some credit, in 2010 there was exactly one edge rusher I was really not thrilled about getting, and then the Eagles go and draft him. Daniel Teo-Nesheim ended up recording 1 sack in his single season with the Eagles. So sometimes I do have it right?
Well I wanted Ziggy Ansah. Gotta wait and see on that front. Thought the Eagles would have drafted Earl Thomas in 2010 when they traded up.
I was wrong about the “ugly duckling”, the talentless wonder, Casey Mathews being able to start at MLB, when in reality he isnt even capable of being a backup.
Guilty too. Forgot all about Casey. He was a stud in the NC game for Oregon
Also hated the Foles pick. I was like “why draft that guy… we need a tackle to replace Peters. Who is gonna protect Vick?” I was really heated. Now I hope Foles is our starting QB.
I was pissed with Foles, because I desperately wanted Boykin in the 3rd…We ended up snagging him in the 4th, so I quickly embraced Foles
Local kid that we got a better look at than other teams, slightly outside the ideal body type: I thought Jiquan Jarrett was going to be the next Brian Westbrook, the pick that proved Andy really was smarter than everyone else.
I successfully predicted McCoy in the 2nd in ’09. Worked out obviously. I also predicted Nate Allen in the 2nd. I’m still hoping he works out. Last year, it was easy to predict Cox in the first, and I predicted Boykin on the 4th. I really wanted Dion Jordan or trade down this year.
Back in ’99 I hated Couch, McNabb, and McNown. I loved Culpepper more than anything. I saw him his freshman year at UCF when I was stationed in Orlando and they were just 1-AA. I just knew he was going to be great. McNabb turned out to be the best of the bunch, but Culpepper at least came in second. I was stationed in WA in ’99 and got to see a lot of Akili Smith and Cade McNown, I loved Smith and hated McNown. They both ended up as busts.
Reasons I am not a GM:
1999 we did the right thing. Only 2 QBs I liked that year were McNabb and Culpepper. I wanted to trade back and take Culpepper but I think it worked out well… Wrong.
In 2000 I thought Peter Warrick was going to be a great player. Thought we should trade up and get him. Corey Simon ended up being a better pick. Wrong.
In 2001 I wanted Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, or some punk wr named Chad Johnson. We got an undersized WR. I was right.
In 2002 I wanted Quentin Jammer. That probably would have cost us Sheldon Brown and Michael Lewis… I was ok with the Lito Pick. Wrong again…
In 2003 I cried “Don’t do it fat man” an he did it. We could have had Nnamdi then… I was right.
2004 I wanted Lee Evans. Most of the teams were wrong in the 1st round of 2004.
you get the idea…
More recently I hated the Kolb pick, hated that draft actually, I liked the Casey Matthews pick, hated the Foles pick, loved the Boykin Pick, hated the Jarret pick, liked the Kendricks pick, loved the McCoy pick…
Oh well. I will never even be allowed to run a Fantasy team.
In general when I was in my late teens/ early twenties and knew everything for a fact (not that long ago), I used to love freakish athletes, and “skill” positions in general. So basically I was like a young and poor Al Davis. Hated all high picks on linemen of any sort, even pass rushers (because sacks only happen if you blitz or force the QB to hold the ball with coverage and any lineman can do that, you know. Like I said, I played Madden, so I had it all figured out,).
So in general I hated a lot of good picks initially, and loved a lot of bad picks. And I never cared about any pick outside the first round. Thank god I moved out of for school, which force me to experience the Eagles through the internet, which introduced me to a ton of great writers and bloggers.
Just an example: I didn’t like Shawn Andrews. I Liked all of our bust WR’s.
I generally try not to get worked up about the draft as it happens and trust the judgment of the scouts, coaches, and front office people, so I rarely try to make predictions or strong judgments about picks when they’re made. That said, there have been a few I’ve gotten wrong/right over the years.
Right – liked the McCoy pick when it was made as he struck me as Westbrook 2.0. Disliked the picks of Bryan Smith and Matt McCoy as they seemed like undersized defenders from smaller schools who would struggle to adjust to NFL competition (bingo). Loved the Shawn Andrews pick (which at the time wasn’t that popular with Eagles fans – lots of people wanted defense or a wide receiver in that draft). I liked Brent Celek coming out. Going way back, hated the Jon Harris pick as he was an obvious reach who wasn’t even a very productive player in college, but everyone hated that pick so I don’t give myself much credit for it.
Wrong – I thought Brodrick Bunkley could be a star. He wasn’t a bust, but was never more than a solid workmanlike DT. From the same draft, I thought Winston Justice was a steal in the second round. I really liked the Nate Allen pick when it was made, and wasn’t as skeptical of Danny Watkins as many people were – I thought he’d probably turn out to be a solid starter. I was skeptical that Trent Cole could play DE in the NFL – oops. I kind of liked Te’o-Nesheim but I will defend that as he has turned out to be a pretty decent LDE, which is what I thought he could be, in Tampa Bay – the Eagles screwed up by releasing him and going to a gimmick front like the wide 9, not by picking him in the first place.
For a team that was rumored to be considering Geno at #4, Barkley at #98 is a godsend. Just think, we could be dealing with this instead:
A source “close to Geno Smith” tells Deadspin he fired his agents because they “handled him like a potential high pick,” advising him to do things like skip the Senior Bowl.
Per the source, Smith was also upset his agents steered fellow clients Chase Daniel and Kevin Kolb to QB-needy teams, and “did nothing” to combat the negative press that came about following Pro Football Weekly’s scathing scouting report. “(Geno) just felt like he needed a change, and that’s the end of the story,” the source said. Agent switches are rarely this scrutinized, but it’s just a taste of what Smith will have to get used to in the New York market.-Deadspin via rotoworld
……
apparently Geno’s agent should have been working magic and getting Kolb and Daniels signed to teams that had no use for QBs
So he’s upset that his agent got Kolb signed to a team who then didn’t spend a first round draft pick after resolving their QB need………
oh wait
My reason for liking the pick is Chip Kelly. The guy is a QB guru. He had 4 QBs in his 6 years at Oregon and all of them were very successful. He turned Dennis Dixon around when he got there. Developed Ricky Santos into a stud at New Hampshire. So with his track record, his intimate knowledge of the kid from college, and considering that Chip had options and elected to pick Barkley, I have a lot of confidence that Chip can do something with him. Chip certainly must think he can.
Dunno if I’d go as far to call him a guru. He’s yet to produce an NFL starter at QB, or develop a prospect into an NFL starter at the NFL level, so the jury is still out. I do think Chip can make a very QB friendly offense that is also very potent, though.
Even Andy Reid only really excelled at figuring a way to get nice production out of pretty much every QB he had in his system. The minute they got traded they turned out to be pretty bad. This is the only reason I’m not totally gung-ho on Foles. You look at the Numbers put up in his starts behind a terrible line and with a game plan that never bothered to establish a run (contradictory this is party responsible for inflating his production as much as it hinders it), it’s very impressive. But Reid has been doing this with back-ups for years.
Fair points. And the comparison to Reid and QBs is a good one (at least it was thru 2010). And it’s true that Chip has never developed an NFL QB, but on the other hand, you could say he’s gotten a lot out of QBs who did not have NFL talent.
In the end, it may turn out that he’s only good at having successful QBs in his offense – but since I don’t care what Vick, Foles, or Barkley does anywhere else, that’s enough for me. That was really what I was trying to say. Chip has like 9+ straight years of good QB play with different guys. If he thinks he can do something with Barkley in his system, I’m on board.
i got one simple question… who has a stronger arm, Barkley or Kolb?
never seen Barkley play, but I would assume Kolb.
Isn’t that like asking which noodle is better?
Spaghetti or Linguine
HA nice lol
As I said when the pick was first made, I’m pretty sure this is about Foles. Barkley doesn’t really have NFL starter attributes, so the pick is largely about depth at the backup spot. If Foles is dumped off somewheres, I suggest people watch the Bengals game as to why. I think there is no honest competition for starter’s spot. Vick will be the starter. What the competition will be about will starting during any midseason overhaul, and the backup spot in general. I don’t think Dixon has much of a shot at getting onto the squad. Training Camp will determine who gets to have the nominal challenge to Vick as the starter in the preseason, for the fan’s consumption. Preseason will determine who the primary backup will be.
At this point we know what you think about the quarterbacks.
I would guess that all three guys will be on the roster on opening day, but if there’s one guy who won’t be, it’s likely to be Vick. How many times does Chip Kelly have to say that he wants in a quarterback is not necessarily athleticism but consistent accuracy, good decision making, and the ability to take care of the ball? Vick has none of these attributes. How many times do executives from other teams have to shoot down rumors about the Eagles looking to trade Foles by saying it’s quite clear the Eagles are high on him and have no intention of trading him? It’s happened close to half a dozen times already this offseason.
Put it this way: if a guy tells you he likes cheeseburgers, you can assume he’s lying and that he really likes BLTs if you want. But if you go into a diner with him, there are several different varieties of BLT on the menu, and he goes ahead and orders a cheeseburger, and when asked why tells you that it’s because he likes cheeseburgers, it’s probably safe to assume that he actually does like cheeseburgers.
In the end, which Barkley means more to Philly?
The Round Mound of Rebound
I think it’s a toss up between that one and this one…
Great write up per usual Tommy!
And I loved the Star Wars reference…
Okay, I’m a huge Star Wars fan but I’m having trouble finding this reference…I even read through this piece twice! I give up. What was the line?
BTW, great piece, Tommy. One of the most informative things I’ve read in a while.
I haven’t seen such a wretched hive of scum and villainy…
Ah…of course it’s the very last line in the article. Good eye.
TL,
Pre-draft I was not a Barkley fan. I watched a few USC games and Barkley make a bad decision rather than dumping the ball off for a short gain but was the safer play. But after reexamining Barkley I’m starting to like him as a QB. One QB that came to mind that had similar complaints regarding arm strength and ints coming out of college was Matt Ryan, for example –
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matt-ryan?id=310
Barkley, among other things, is shorter but has a better completion percentage than Ryan did coming out of BC. Curious as to what were your pre-draft notes on Matty Ice and any thoughts on the comparison?
PS – I had to catch up on your posts and wanted to extend my condolences for your loss.
I watched USC vs Oregon from 2011 and 2012. For all of the talk about Barkley having a disappointing ’12, he seemed way more impressive vs Oregon compared to ’11. So maybe that helped as a counter argument in Chip’s mind of all the criticism that came out this year for Matt.
This is what an NFL exec had to say about the Eagles draft picks and Matt Barkley:
Matt Barkley, QB, USC: “I understand why they took him. He’s a second-round talent that they got in the fourth round. But I have my doubts as to whether he’ll ever be a productive player in this league.
“He doesn’t have a very strong arm, which is why he slid to 98. Can he make all of the throws? More or less. He doesn’t have a noodle arm. It’s not as bad as Chad Pennington’s was. But when you have a guy who has to throw the ball with such timing and anticipation, you can’t always do that. You’re not always going to have a clean pocket and be able to step into your throws. You’re going to have to throw the ball off-balance and off your back foot and all that kind of stuff. That’s where Matt really struggles.
“When he’s on the field, their offense is going to be restricted somewhat. Chip will play to his strengths and have him throw a lot of short and intermediate stuff. But NFL defenses are going to squeeze the field on a guy like that.”
I am wary of any writer who asks himself a question, then answers in a way that doesn’t make sense.
“Can he make all of the throws? More or less.”
How can he make more than all the throws?
Like I said, it was a NFL Executive interviewed by Domo. Here is the rest of his breakdown:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20130502_NFL_personnel_guy_likes_Eagles__draft.html
1252404897, is a lot of reactions!
I’m not sold on Barkley as a prospect, but at the cost of 4th and 7th round picks, he is absolutely a lottery ticket worth buying. It seems to me that many of his issues (forced throws, bad decisions leading to picks, etc.) may have been a result of him pressing too hard to overcome the limitations of his teammates and average arm strength, while definitely a negative, is not something that can’t be overcome. You could make a good argument that Brady and Montana are the two greatest quarterbacks in NFL history and neither of them had more than an average arm, particularly when they entered the league. Barkley seems to be great on all the intangibles that are key to succeeding at QB (work ethic, intelligence, attitude, leadership, etc.) so if any prospect from this draft can overcome so-so physical tools it could be him. At the very least he should turn out to be a good long-term backup which is decent value in the fourth round.
At WORST, Barkley becomes “Koy Detmer” and we have our backup QB for many years. Think the same can be said about Foles.
Andrew Luck senior season (2011):
3517yds. 71.3 comp.%. 37td 10int 11sacks taken
Matt Barkley junior season (2011):
3528yds. 69.1 comp.%. 39td 7int 8 sacks taken
Luck went #1 overall.