Byrd Hunting?
Posted: July 6th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 50 Comments »Jairus Byrd has been a star FS for the Buffalo Bills over the past 4 years. Now his contract is up.
The Bills slapped the franchise tag on him, but the two sides have been unable to work out a long term deal. Per ESPN, the two sides remain apart in trying to work something out. If you are the Bills, do you keep him and hope a deal gets done? Buffalo isn’t necessarily going to be a playoff team this year so there is logic to dealing him for a pick. The flip side is that the only way you get to the playoffs is by keeping your best players around.
Howie Roseman is as active and aggressive as any GM in the NFL. You can bet he will talk to the Bills at some point, about any number of things. GMs talk to each other to try and keep a feel for how things are going around the league. Plus, some of these guys become friends as they get to know each other at the Senior Bowl, Combine and NFL meetings.
I’m sure Roseman will dance around the subject of Byrd, out of curiosity if nothing more. If the Bills are willing to deal him, do you go for Byrd?
It would be great to have a star FS, but Byrd isn’t coming cheap. It will likely take at least a 2nd round pick to get him. And then you have to be willing to pay big bucks for him. Is Byrd worth those kind of resources?
Think about it.
Okay, put your pencils down.
My initial thought was no. The Eagles might be a good team this year, but we have to acknowledge that they could end up with pick 35 or something like that. Do you want to deal that? I’m always hesitant to move those picks.
Then I reminded myself not to over-value picks. Byrd is a proven commodity, and at a position the Eagles have struggled to fill since the departure of Brian Dawkins. Byrd isn’t a huge hitter and physical force, but he is a playmaker.
18 INTs
27 PDs
2 sacks
10 FFs
10 TFLs
I think I would deal a 2nd rounder for Byrd.
I don’t think Buffalo is likely to trade him. All 32 teams have trouble finding good Safeties. When you do get one, you hold on if at all possible. The other issue here is that some team could deal a 1st round pick for Byrd. Jerry Jones isn’t afraid to gamble and trade 1st round picks. The Broncos could sure use a Safety. And so on.
While this is an unlikely scenario, it is worth discussing and would be a big boost to the Eagles secondary.
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Interesting announcement from Jimmy Bama.
Don’t worry. This isn’t bad news. Jimmy will share the full details when he can. Maybe he’ll be blogging about sunglasses and lasik surgery.
_
Its situations like these why I am happy I’m not a GM sometimes. If I was Howie and the Bills called with Byrd for a 2. Lets say they gave me an hour. My head would probably explode. There are so many things a trade like that says. It’s sort of counters the mantra of the rebuilding process to this point. The guy is a stud, you just gave up a high pick and big time contract for him. He could easily come in as an entitled guy, and the rest of the problems that don’t need to be outlined here. At the same time it fits right in. He is a young player, still on the rise. He could be a defensive corner stone for 6-10 more years possibly.
Keep us updated on Jimmy’s next venture. I really only read him when you link em, but find his stuff funny and good. I follow him on twitter but don’t really keep up with it.
Why does the NFL need a development league, anyway? Buffalo has been doing just fine as one for many teams now.
Oh and you were totally right about JJ. I really hope he gets it together. He needs to not close for a little while.
While it would be nice to have a safety like Byrd on the team, I’m just not sure I could justify trading even a 2nd because we could use it to trade up in next year’s draft for a QB. It would be heavily dependent on who wins the starting job this year and how well they play. I would only trade for Byrd, assuming it’s a 2nd or higher, if someone really lights it up and shows they can be a franchise QB. Anything less and I would keep the pick so I have a chance at getting myself a player I believe is a franchise QB in the 2014 draft. Even though we know what we’re getting in Byrd and he is a very good player, QB is just too important of a position and you need to do whatever you can to get your QB.
Totally agree with you there. I would give Byrd the money he is asking for – we have the Cap room, we have shitty Safeties, he’s one of the better or even best in the league at the Safety position. Just makes too much sense.
But I’d hate to give up a 2nd rounder for him. Not because it is likely that we will get a player with the skills that Byrd has with that 2nd rounder – but because I really think it could be extremely important to have a shot at the 2nd best QB next year.
Normally you don’t get the No. 1 overall pick, but in the NFL, it is likely that crappy teams often pick in the Top 6. Therefore it is likely that they just 1, 2 or 3 years ago picked a QB very early in the draft and that they want to build around him, because you can’t pick a QB in the first round every year. 🙂 The textbook example, of course, are the Rams last year. The Skins sent 3 1st rounder + 1 2nd rounder to them for RGIII. I think the Eagles should be able to go that route if they choose to do so.
Probably you can’t choose between Bridgewater or Mariota (let’s just assume for the sake of the argument that those two will be the best QBs in the draft next year). But you have the chance to pick either one of those two with the right picks to give up.
So, back to Byrd: if Kelly thinks that Foles and/or Barkley are the future and that at least of them will be a QB that can manage a team to the Superbowl (I say “manage” deliberately because we should have a pretty good running game, which lows the pressure on the QB a little bit) – go and get Byrd, he’ll we worth a 2nd rounder. But if you’re not sure about Foles and Barkley, don’t do it.
Is there anything that shows next years crop of QBs will be any beter than this years? Do you really think it would be worth blowing a bunch of picks to get one of those guys?
This is a genuine question, while only slightly loaded. I do not follow college football much more than to know who is good. I have not heard much excited talk about next years QBs either.
To comment on the thread in general:
– I wouldn’t see not having a 2nd round pick mess us up in moving up in next year’s draft if we identified the QB we wanted. There are a million and one ways to put together enough “points” to get any pick.
– Yes, the QBs are better in next year’s draft. Bridgewater especially.
I’m far away from being a College expert, there are much more qualified users out there than me. I would argue from a statistical probability point of view, so to speak.
Time will tell, obviously, but the QB class of 2013 looks ridiciously bad at the moment (!). If I would know more about the history of the NFL, I would say historically bad, but I don’t have the know how to say that.
Take a look at the Draft in comparison:
2013: 1 QB in the 1st round (# 16), 2 QBs in rounds 2 + 3 = 3 QBs
2012: 4 QBs in the 1st round (# 1, 2, 8, 22), 3 QBs in rounds 2 + 3 = 7 QBs
2011: 4 QBs in the 1st round (# 1, 8, 10, 12), 3 QBs in rounds 2 + 3 = 7 QBs
2010: 2 QBs in the 1st round (# 1, 25), 2 QBs in rounds 2 + 3 = 4 QBs
2009: 3 QBs in the 1st round (# 1, 5, 17), 1 QB in rounds 2 + 3 = 4 QBs
2008: 2 QBs in the 1st round (# 3, 18), 3 QBs in rounds 2 + 3 = 5 QBs
What stands out (this is, of course, a pure quantitative look) is the lack of 1st round QB talent in this class. How it turns out will be determined later, like I said, but the scouts didn’t trust these guys to be worth a shot in the 1st round.
This all in an environment that pushes the value of the QB play even more than it once was. Look at the contracts for Flacco, Rodgers and Romo this offseason. But despite the importance, no one thought that he seen enough to pull the trigger in the 1st, no one but the Bills and they even traded down.
Now, if you look at the 5 drafts before the 2013 draft, the statistical guess would be that there has to be more talent in the 2014 class. At least frontloaded (2009 and 2010 had only 4 QBs in the first 3 rounds, but 3 respectively 2 in the first round, each year with a #1 overall pick).
Normally the 2013 class should turn out to be a statistically anomaly.
And from a qualitative standpoint I would say that I think Bridgewater and Mariota could develope into good QBs in the NFL. Then again, I’m not an expert, so I will argue first and foremost from the statistical point of view. 🙂
[…] Posted on July 7, 2013 by chikoong Posted: July 6th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 4 Comments » […]
Trade Mac and a 6th for Byrd. There it’s finished good job everyone!
They already have Stevie, drafted Robert Woods, Goodwin, and have a potential UDFA gem in Da’rick Rodgers if he behaves. They probably feel much more confident about their WR corps this year than they have in a long time.
Forgot about those draft picks. I would argue Maclin is better right now than either of those two draft picks. Of course the Bills aren’t in a position to win now anyway so might as well develop the talent. I was just throwing out a goofy scenario.
Nate Allen and a 3rd or Celek and a 5th
Personally I would rather have a sack master OLB but what the hell do I know? We could already have that man on the team!
very very tempting, however we have no idea how close we are to being a legit contender. Are we 1 player away (Byrd) or are we more like 10-15 roster moves away+ the x amount of player/coach/system development time needed to make a run? Likely the ladder. But who knows, in the NFL there’s always that one team that goes from 5-11ish to 11-5ish. this would be a whole lot easier for howie if he had a year of kelly led eagles under his belt.
on a personal note, after getting used to the likes of the dawkins/mikell/lewis types its been pretty tough to stomach the likes of the coleman/macho/colt45 caliber safetys. We don’t even know if one of those above mentioned roster moves is going to be nate allen. thats probably my biggest concern going forward, can you rely on nate allen long term in the secondary?
I think Nate’s future is ultimately not what makes the decision here. I think the problem is that while he certainly would have been one of my highest FA targets, the 2013 Eagles have too many question marks to move a high pick for a defensive player. No question we need to fill the void at FS, but I doubt Buffalo will move him at all due to having the franchise tag on him already. I see the situation resolving more as a, “you think you’re worth ____ amount of money? Show us this year while being paid like one of the top players in the league.” Then, if he plays well they can reward him with a huge FA offer and build a rep in their locker room for rewarding players that reward the team. If his play declines or he becomes a locker room problem, he only hurts his free market value and they have a chance to get him at his current price or make an example of not re-signing him.
Giving up a 2nd rounder that could be a key piece of a package deal to jump ten or fifteen spots in the first round to get a marquee player, be it a QB or difference maker at safety or some other position, for a team that may or may not be in contention this year but certainly doesn’t know if the roster is anywhere close to where the team wants it to be competitive for the next 3-6 years doesn’t seem wise. If Lurie and Roseman have shown anything, it’s that they’re after sustainable success. At the end of the day, I see him staying in Buffalo or demonstrating how much a single mistake can hurt a player’s career by taking Rahim Moore’s job in Denver.
oh no, agreed. the nate allen thing was my main concern about the secondary as it’s currently constructed.
Honestly, I view anything above six wins this year as gravy. It’s not that I don’t believe in Chips schemes or the defensive coaching, I just think we lack talent in some areas (S, CB, QB) and have players we may find out to be square pegs in round holes due to the scheme switch that may not be awful but may get exposed or simply goof up in key moments.
That being said, I think it’s going to be an agonizing 6-10, or it would have been agonizing if we still had Reid. This year I won’t be watching the Eagles hoping to follow a team on its way to a championship, but to learn about Chip and evaluate which players are going to be a part of the next 4-7 years of success
Wasn’t Jimmy’s blog already about sunglasses and lasik surgery? The comments I’ve been leaving there seem inappropriate now…
Only part of the time
Just wondering – to what extent are his stats the result of the team he plays for, and make him look better?
I mean, there is a difference between him putting himself into a position to make plays, and him being put into a position to (have to) make many plays. Compare it to a safety making many tackles – is that the result of him playing close to the line or tight coverage and having a nose for the ball, or the rest of the team being extremely bad and him HAVING to make the tackle since nobody else does…
Especially of the latter (the suctitude of the Bills makes him look much better than he is), it would be a shame to trade for him.
I also agree with those who say to see and wait. With the overhaul now, and the chaos in the years before, do we know what we have, and would Byrd be the right person to lead the defence/secondary into the right direction (or accept other players being the leader of the secondary)? And we might have too many holes yet to risk giving away a high pick.
At first I thought every day of the week and twice on Sundays, but thinking about it I’m not so sure, I think I would rather see what we have in the safeties on the roster now Phillips’ knee, how can wollf, Allen and Chung do, that 2nd could also come in handy in a trade up scenario cone next years draft… It would be a lot of resources used on safety in one off-season. I’d prefer to have a great team in the next 2-4 years than have great safety play this year.
Ahhhhhhh Mr. Byrd…now you are speaking my language!!!!
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Will Howie “Splash” Roseman strike again?
I value draft picks as much as anyone, but a 2nd round pick for a young pro bowl stud is a no Brainer. We are talking about one of the top 3 safeties in the NFL who also brings high Charecter and leadership to our secondary. I wouldn’t trade a 1st round pick, but I would give up a 2nd rounder in a heartbeat for this kid…..iF you look at our Roster and the defensive players around the league, and if you could add any defender to this roster, Jarius Byrd would probably be around the top of the list when you factor in Age, Ability, Charcter, position we are weak at and playmaking..
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Byrd would be a serious Impact addition to our defense that would improve us significantly..Really hoping Howie pulls this off
But what do you say to the reasoning from westy36 (comment above, to which I replied), which would be my problem with the Byrd trade?
I remember you arguing for the same kind of thinking (especially pre draft). We both, and I guess almost every Eagles Fan, wish that Kelly can succeed. But despite a good running game, you NEED a Franchise QB in this league. Kelly needs a Franchise QB by the same time next year. Maybe we already have him on our roster, maybe not, no one can say that at the moment.
Like I wrote above, if a great player at the weakest position of your team is available, you have to consider it. Seriously consider it. But it’s far from a no brainer, like you put it, in my opinion, if you think about the QB position and the importance of it.
I know you like Foles, but you have to admit (and admitted approximately one hundred times before), that no one can be sure about his development.
Even if you need to trade up for a Qb, you can get creative if you don’t have a 2nd round pick…say a 3rd and a 3rd the following year..
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Byrd is one of the top 3 players at his position, young leader..I would trade for him in a heartbeat.
I like Byrd too, don’t get me wrong. His skills in conjunction with the skills he have at the moment at that position is totally a no brainer, from that standpoint.
But even if we’d be willing to give up 3 1st rounders like the Skins did for RGIII, because our FO and Kelly fell totally in love with one of the QBs – maybe we would need to give up a 2nd rounder in that draft, because one other team would. One competitor is enough, the Skins have learned that the hard way. It would be a disaster if we miss one RGIII type QB because of a missing 2nd rounder.
Rather trade a 2nd for Byrd and get a sure shot top player at his position, then use that 2nd round pick as part of a package used to move up and draft a player…
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I don’t think a year is enough to know what you have in Matt Barkley any way…so I don’t know how you can come to the conclusion next summer to trade away two firsts and a 2nd to move up and get a QB….To make that kind of investment, you better be completely sure that you need to make that type of move…I think you have to ATleast see what a kid can do in his sophomore season before you can annoint him or denounce him as your future….Much rather add a young probowler who will lead our secondary NOw, then not add him in case we need to draft a QB next summer…just my point of view
GEagle – Hehe, I was thinking the same thing. I know Byrd, he represents the best of the Ducks. As you say, he will bring Character to the team and an approach to Defense that will inspire others. You can’t put a price on that. I’m with you get him, but squeeze the Bills.
Dominik – IMHO, the Eagles have a franchise QB. During several seasons, I saw Luck and Barkley play my Ducks. While every pundit in the blogosphere sings the praises of Luck and his stats, I honest to God do not think he is better than Barkley. He does not pickup blitzes as quickly and effectively as Barkley and he did not make as many CLUTCH plays. Now, I am willing to concede the “has no experience in the NFL” and USC-hype argument, but his guy is a gym rat with tremendous Football IQ. Yeah, yeah noodle-arm etc. is just BS that sullies his rep – he is the real deal. And, knowing Chip (and knowing that Chip saw what I saw with USC), Barkley will be given his shots in TC and PS – then you will know what we know.
Bills have no leverage, And an addition like Byrd significantly impacts our defense…really wish we would use a current Eagle
Iike Chung to go thru the back channels lol and start recruiting Byrd…
IF the bills are going to lose him in free agency, like I said maybe we get them to take a 3rd and a player as compensation…maybe a young Safety like Nate Allen would be appealing to them. they can pencil him in as Byrds replacement and give him a tryout. if they aren’t happy with Nate be becomes a free agent at the end of the season, and they would still have gotten a 3rd round pick out of the deal.
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Our main competitor in terms of a combination of both Cap Space AND a desired location is probably the Bengals.They have a lot of cap space and a lot of pieces to field a competitive team already in place…Fortunate for us, Bengals like the Bills are notoriously cheap, and traditionally Philadelphia is a much more desired market than Cincy.
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When was the last time a young player of Byrds caliber was traded going into a contract year because the team feared it wouldn’t be able to re sign him? and what was the compensation offered for that player?
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We saw Demeco traded for a 4th but that was a very situation
I recently watched the USC vs Oregon game from last season – that was literally (and I literally don’t use the word literally that often) one of the freaking best football games I have ever saw.
I’m not getting tired to emphazise that I’m not a football expert, but man, that was fun. I can only recommend that game to every Eagles fan who hasn’t seen the game, who’s bored because it’s the lamest part of the Offseason and who likes Offensive football (you should get used to it even if you are a defensive guy, Chip will be here for at least 2 years lol). And Barkley vs Chippah is very interesting, too, of course.
To get back to the topic: I don’t want to rule out that Foles or Barkley are the future of the franchise. That wasn’t my point at all. But if Kelly sees those two for a full season and isn’t convinced that one of them can be the future, he must act in the next draft. Even if you have a great owner who has a LONG TERM plan, you need to find a QB you can link yourself to as a HC. You can’t wait for a franchise QB to fall into your lap.
I was thrilled that Kelly resisted the pressure to draft a guy like Geno Smith in the first round, just because he was seen as the most talented QB pre-draft and Chip is a new HC. That gave me trust in his long term thinking. But he can’t wait forever. I’m sure almost everyone would welcome Foles or Barkley as the Franchise QB of the future – after all, that’s the easiest way for the team to get better and have success. But you can’t say we already have that QB until we see him on the field doing good things.
Buffalo is in a really bad spot with Byrd. The tag for him ($6.9) million is well below his market value. Considering San Diego paid mediocre Eric Weddle $8 mil / year (5 year / $40 mil), what does that make Byrd worth……$10 mil / year? For some reason DaShon Goldson gave Tampa a discount by only signing a slightly higher deal (5 / $41.25), so that did some work in slowing the market on Byrd.
On the open market Byrd would get anywhere from $8.5 – $10 / year depending on the number of teams involved. Buffalo clearly hasn’t offered that.
The asking price for Mr. Byrd, considering that you’re getting the #1 safety in football and player that would command that much money, would more likely be a #1 than a #2.
I’d almost prefer to wait out the Bills letting Byrd hit the market as opposed to throwing them a #1.
If they’d do it for a two, I’d do the trade now.
I agree with you on the 2nd rounder– even if it is in the 34-38 range. Its hard to get a player of his skills (even with the price tag). That would sure up on safety spot for a few years, while allowing our other players to fight/develop for that role on the team.
I wouldn’t do it for a 1, but yes for a 2. Even with a big contract.
I would do it for a 2, but it might not even cost that much. bills have no leverage. Give them a 3rd and a player and tell them Hakuna Matata lol
bills have NO leverage. it may not even cost a 2nd rounder. they have 8days to get him to extend or they will definitely lose him in Free agency. the even trickier part is no team will trade for him without him agreeing to an extension first, so it’s like he basically has a no trade cause where he can veto where he doesn’t want to go…
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if I’m Howie, I call Patrick Chung in my office and tell Chung to act as an intermediary to go and recruit Byrd. let Byrd know that we will “show him the money lol”…tell Byrd to start demanding a trade…take all leverage from the bills and force them to accept a deal for like a 3rd and Hunt or Nate lol…. it’s still better than a disgruntled player who will walk at the end of the year…
A 3rd + Hunt or Nate (or Chung, for that matter, but he’s recruiting him, so that would be awkward) and I will dance around the street, praising the lo… I mean Howie for the next couple of days.
Hahah Chung is the Recruiter and the Bait lol
I think Chung and Byrd are close. Your suggestion is good tactics for getting Byrd.
hopefully I’m not the first to think of it lol, and hopefully chip and Howie are interested….Chung/Byrd would be a huge improvement from what we saw last year…
Hopefully, H2H is not on the chopping block as well…
No, I asked Jimmy on twitter. He’s still doing H2H.
It’s too soon. Asomugha still haunts me.
Asomugha’s problem as a player was his speed declined. Safety’s less speed intensive and Byrd’s 3-4 years younger than Asomugha was two years ago.
Somebody brought up Byrd’s stats being good because the Bills suck. I’m going to bring up his division/conference sucking. From his wikipedia:
“In his second start the next week Byrd recorded his first career interception off of Derek Anderson of the Cleveland Browns. Starting for the third straight week Byrd recorded two more interceptions off of Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets bringing his total to three.”
dude, that kid can flat out play. I’d probably take him over Earl Thomas!!!
Byrd in hand is worth a 2 in the bush, er, draft.
Besides, it isn’t like we are shy about giving up 2nd rounders for safeties.
Hopefully Howie free’s Jarius from his cage, and Brings him to The Nest, where Eagles and Byrd’s of a feather belong!!!!
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Wouldn’t mind a Future where the Wolff Hunts around the line of scrimmage, and the Byrd Flys around centerfield forcing turnovers!!!!
And for the comic relief sarcastic reply…
Trade Vick and a pick to them and watch him take Kolb’s job again 🙂
Just joking…Nothing to see here. Keep moving
How many players can the Bills let go and still be an NFL team? They’re like the Kansas City Royals of the NFL. They traded Marshawn, Jason Peters (why?) and then let Demetress Bell go (ok – never mind). If they get rid of Byrd they should just move the team to LA and get it over with.
UPDATE: Talks between the Bills and Byrd are completely OFF! Byrd wont be extended and become a free agent at the end of the season..
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hills have NO leverage lefft..Time for Jarius To demand a trade to the Eagles, and howie swoop in