Game Preview – NO at PHI
Posted: January 4th, 2014 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 110 Comments »Are you ready for some football…some postseason football? Man, does it feel good to be back in the playoffs or what? There are 12 teams with a shot to win the Super Bowl and the Eagles are one of them. That’s all you can ask for. Great job by Chip Kelly and the players.
Some people have talked about how the Eagles are playing with house money this year. The expectations weren’t high so anything the team does is a bonus. I don’t fully agree with that.
2000 – Duce Staley
2001 – Troy Vincent
2002 – Donovan McNabb, Blaine Bishop
2003 – Brian Westbrook
2004 – Correll Buckhalter, Terrell Owens
2006 – Jevon Kearse, Donovan McNabb
Those players either missed the playoffs or were hurt and played at a decreased level. The Eagles are a very healthy team right now. There are no guarantees about next year or 2015 or whenever. You must strike while the iron is hot. That isn’t to say that the Eagles must win or this season is a failure, but it really is important for Kelly and the players to try and take advantage of the situation.
Win the day.
I wrote my preview for PE.com.
I also did a podcast with Jimmy Bama to preview the game. I forgot just how awful Jimmy is and how awesome I am. It was fun to get together and talk about the Eagles. We’ll be more active in the offseason as our schedules lighten up a bit.
I’m really curious what Rob Ryan does. The Saints don’t have a good run defense. Ryan knows the Eagles will want to run so he must figure out how to deal with that. Will he play base defense instead of his preferred Nickel look to help vs Shady? Will he go Nickel, but load the box? Will he focus on stopping DeSean Jackson and see how Shady does?
I do think the Eagles need to get DeSean involved. He has had 7 catches over the last 2 games combined. He needs more touches tonight.
And the Eagles OL must step up and protect Nick Foles. There was too much pressure last week. Give Foles a clean pocket and he’ll pick the Saints apart.
I don’t know what to expect from the Eagles defense. Is it possible they’ll play a great game? It is. They were fantastic against an outstanding Bears offense just 2 weeks ago. The difference is that Brees is a better QB than Jay Cutler. Postseason football can bring out the best in some defenses. Maybe that happens with the Eagles.
I’m not naive. Brees could torch this secondary. ESPN showed his stats from the 2011 game vs SF. That was a good defense, but Brees put up 462 yards on them. Wow.
For whatever reason, the Saints offense is down a bit this year. They were “only” 10th in points scored. Brees numbers were ridiculous for normal QBs, but not for his standards. I think the OL took a step back and that affected the offense. The YPC for Pierre Thomas dropped this year. Combine that with Brees numbers and that’s gotta be blocking.
There are a couple of things that make me nervous. If the Saints pass rush gets to Foles early and often, that will be a major issue. If the Saints are able to get Sproles on DeMeco Ryans in space, that could be a major issue.
There are plenty of reasons to feel good about this game.
Chase Stuart is a big time numbers guy and wrote an excellent preview. He’s got PHI 32, NO 24.
Greg Bedard is a writer for MMQB. He’s got an interesting theory on the playoffs.
For me, postseason games come down to one thing: how many elite or near-elite level players—a blend of blue- and red-chip players we’ll refer to as “purple” chip players—each team has, and how many of them play at that level on game day. Having good depth and coaxing solid performances out of emergency fill-ins is helpful against the also-rans during the regular season, but at some point the best players have to make a difference.
His thoughts on the game.
Saints (5): QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, DE Cameron Jordan, OT Zach Strief, third-down back Darren Sproles.
Eagles (6): RB LeSean McCoy, LG Evan Mathis, LT Jason Peters, WR DeSean Jackson, OLB Trent Cole, C Jason Kelce.
How things are trending: You can make a very convincing argument that no team is executing better on either side of the ball better than the Eagles. And execution overcomes talent you may lack, which the Eagles do on defense. The Saints play well at home, and terribly on the road. If they don’t figure out how to solve that, the Saints will lose in Philadelphia.
It is interesting that he doesn’t even have Foles listed in this group. I get why, but Foles should be a huge factor and in my mind that gives the Eagles another advantage if you rate the games like this.
And then we have some good tweets.
Eagles' defense is trending very much up. From 30th in DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to 12th in Weeks 10-17. 22nd to 5th vs. the run.
— SI_DougFarrar (@SI_DougFarrar) January 3, 2014
Eagles are #1 in offensive run DVOA all season, fourth in passing DVOA since Week 10, and #1 in overall DVOA since Week 10. Looking scary.
— SI_DougFarrar (@SI_DougFarrar) January 3, 2014
Short version: The Iggles are ready to beat people up in all sorts of ways if you let them.
— SI_DougFarrar (@SI_DougFarrar) January 3, 2014
Are we starting to get overconfident? It gets worse.
All of the guys on ESPN’s NFL Countdown show picked the Eagles to win. Keyshawn Johnson even picked the Eagles to win 35-14. I will be beyond shocked if the Eagles limit the Saints to 14 points.
I feel good about tonight. I see Shady McCoy as the difference in the game. He doesn’t need 100 yards or 3 TDs. He needs 20 touches. That will keep the offense going, whether it leads to him getting big plays or it causes the Saints to focus on him and leaves the back end open for DeSean and Riley Cooper.
I respect the hell out of Drew Brees and Sean Payton, but for the first time in a while…I don’t fear them.
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Need more to read today?
Jeff McLane spoke to Howard Mudd and posted a great interview. Must read material. Go read the whole thing.
Bo Wulf posted his great Wulf’s Den column. You get to find out about Sheldon Brown’s big hit from the last Saints-Eagles playoff game. There is also some interesting high school info and a good interview with Mychal Kendricks.
Jeff McLane posted his Insights column on Friday. I found this nugget interesting.
The Eagles defense has played an NFL-most 1,150 snaps this season, but linebacker Connor Barwin, who has played 94 percent of the plays, and other full-timers insisted they felt fresh heading into the postseason.
“I’m sure the extra plays have some effect, but honestly, I feel pretty good,” Barwin said this week. “The biggest thing is guys like me, DeMeco [Ryans], Cary [Williams] – we haven’t had any real injuries. And then these coaches are real smart. My practice reps have been cut down the last month.”
_
It’s going to be a really, really tough game. But my gut feeling says Eagles pull through. We get a below average game from the Saints and the Eagles play well enough yet again.
Eagles 24, Saints 21.
If we win the toss, do we recieve or defer? Does the fact that it is the playoffs make a difference? Will the weather be worse or better by half-time?
I generally prefer deferring and getting the ball to start the 2nd half. In this game though, I’d rather not give Brees/Payton the ball to start the game with an opportunity to take the crowd out the game early with a long TD drive on possession #1. Also, its cold and will only get colder at the start of the 2nd half.
Very curious, if we win the toss, to see what the Chipper does here.
My thoughts are echoed here.
Rather defer today, but a jacked up defense on the field before Brees is warmed up while the crowd will be loud as hell…I want to start the game with the ball on the road to try and shut the crowd up…past 12 games, saints only scored on their first possession ONCE…they can have the ball, getting it at halftime is to valuable whether you are trying to build a lead or come from behind
I agree. Also, deferring gives you the chance to get the ball twice in a row (at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second half) without having to force a turnover.
Don’t we get to pick the wind direction in the x4th if we difer? Great point
I’m not 100% sure, but I think because we defer we would pick the ball in the second half, so the other team would pick what side they want. Of course, we could pick the wind instead of ball, but I don’t see that happening.
Think you are right…not sure about the wind factor, but for whatever it’s worth they say the windchill factor is 19 degrees…I would assume that means their will be wind involved
not that much wind, just a little
Thanks
is the wind supposed to pick up later? Its calm according to the tv crew.
mild wind from the SW, could affect FGs at the southern end of LFF.
Tommy, I certainly hear what you’re saying about “striking when the iron is hot” (nice cliche, BTW).
This reminds me of both 2000 (when it wasn’t supposed to be quite our time yet, but we ended up almost beating the “Greatest Show on Turf” to advance to the SB) and the Giants-like magic of 2008 (only to be denied from advancing to the SB by Kurt Warner once again).
Things are breaking our way (like Pierre Thomas being out this week, plus bitterly cold weather conditions) and we’re healthy. Both excellent signs. Best of all, Kurt Warner is – last time I checked – finally out of the league.
Maybe, just, maybe…
If Warner comes out of retirement, I’m hiring a hit-man.
I think that was the 2001 season, not 2000, but great points. Damn Warner.
I don’t think the “house money” comments indicate the speaker thinks the Eagles don’t need to play hard or with intensity. Strange to characterize it that way.
I think the phrase is more personal in nature: most fans are probably going to be pretty happy with where the franchise is next offseason, no matter the results of tonight’s game. It’s not like at the end of next season if there are a lot of injuries that keep the Eagles out of the playoffs we’ll all be saying “Gosh, I wish I wasn’t so happy the Eagles made the playoffs last year.”
I get that. I guess my point is that you must take advantage of things when they go your way (staying healthy, playing well). The Eagles may seem ahead of schedule, but we can’t take for granted that things will always go so well.
aside from the injury factor, aren’t almost all other conditions trending upwards? granted, hard to discern one variable from another, but-
1) scheme should only become more familiar to players after the first year, so execution may improve. Greater focus on technique
2) more than likely, going into next year with same staff. HUGE for consistency and relationship-building
3) nothing indicates the coaching, particularly Chip and his offense, can be “figured out” at this level. There is no gimmick; Chip reveals his hand, and dares you to stop it. If anything, a year with NFL tape on defense should make him better (can’t you see him watching film 12 hrs a day, every day, all offseason?)
4) talent, particularly on the defense, should increase as Chip and Howie take advantage of the draft, FA, and great cap situation to continue to rebild reload.
5) most players are young and under contract. Peters, Kelce, and Herremans may improve as they get further from injury, and Maclin may return. Age will really only effect OL, if at all.
6) Foles will be going into his first offseason as starter, with more experience, and more time to study with Chip. Remember Brady and Belichick after their first year together?
7) division should remain terrible for the near future
I think the Redskins are a good cautionary tale as far as taking things for granted after a good season goes. Hard to imagine the Eagles being in a comparable situation, though.
From the Chase Stuart article:
It’s worth pointing out that of the 8 coldest games on the list, the
dome team won three times. Frankly, I’m not quite sure what to make of
this fact.
What I’d make of it is, when it is DAMN cold, colder than normal for either team, then weather you play outdoors or in, really doesn’t make a difference.
That said, the Eagles running game and the fits McCoy gave Sexy Rexy when was in the Big D bodes well for Iggles-nation.
Go Meco!
If the Birds run the ball they win,keep your arms up and stay in your gaps on defense and you win..do something stupid like play the Saints game and its one and done Chip
Tommy, you mentioned that Bedard left off Foles, but I’d think there are a few more as well. At least for the birds, I’d include Cox and Boykin. And he also left off both NO’s guards and Colston.
Yeah, if you’re including Sproles you can pretty much add the entire Eagles offense, the rest of the Saints and half of the Eagles defense.
Think Brees was 40-62 that day when he put up 462…. 62 freaking attempts!!
Contrary to common belief, I don’t anticipate the NFC East remaining this weak for long. It’s just not the way NFL is structured. Going from worst to first is no longer uncommon. Immediate results are almost expected.
All of the NFC East teams have talent in place.
I think the Giants will have the most trouble due to their age and Eli’s inconsistent play.
Cowboys still have the pieces, if they had better safeties they might be in the playoffs right now. But then again, as long as Coach Jones runs the team, they’ll remain mediocre.
Redskins are the most intriguing team. They have what you look for. Good, young QB (RGIII), bruising runner (Morris), solid left tackle (Williams), dynamic pass rushers (Orakpo/Kerrigan). If they get the right coach, they can turn it around very fast. In my opinion, they are the most talented NFC East team in terms of RAW TALENT. Unfortunately for them, fortunately for us, they don’t have a first round pick to get a difference maker in the secondary.
Eagles should also remain competitive. We need pass rushers, secondary help, and O-line depth. Another toy for Chip’s offense would put them over the top (D’Anthony Thomas anyone?). One more full off-season to learn the scheme and add even more wrinkles is unfathomable. I expect them to break all the offensive franchise records they set this season. Scary.
The redskins are a lot like the cowboys in that they have a number of star players but the rest of their players are really bad. For each star they have at least one Chunglevel black hole on the depth chart. And losing out on the 2nd overall pick…their roster situation is comic. They can be good if RG3 becomes a great QB, but even that’s not a sure thing. He couldn’t do it this season.
RGIII is hands down the X-factor for their team. He needs to play a lot better, but also needs a coach to get the best out of him. Kyle Shanahan initially did a good job adapting what RGIII ran at Baylor to the NFL. But when Defenses caught up, he failed to make adjustments/reverted back to his own schemes.
A better offensive mind can help RGIII. But RGIII needs to help himself by staying out of the media and in the weight room.
Wake me up when RG3 ever makes it to his third read on a play lol..
Where’s Shah8 been lately? I expected him to say that about the Foles.
I agree re: talent, thought other factors are in play.
-I agree with your assessment of NYG. Their decade with Eli is almost over, and they’re still struggling at OL, LB, and secondary. Plus, they’ll likely lose Tuck and Nicks. Coughlin may be out after next year.
-DAL simply stinks. They’ve had the “pieces” for years, except now they’re also in cap hell with a QB signed through the decade (guaranteed $) having back issues. And as you said, Jerrah will live forever and keep them 8-8 til the end. Garrett coming back is the best possible omen, and I’m not scared of Kiffin at all. They’ll have to jettison some of their remaining talent to boot.
http://overthecap.com/dallas-cowboys-navigating-the-salary-cap/
-WAS will also struggle under the burden of their owner, and now they’re in a coaching search as well. Morris may or may not have the great stats without Shanahan’s scheme, and the OL awful outside of LT.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/washington-redskins-2012-offensive-line-draft-picks-still-have-much-to-prove/2013/12/05/2d0292f0-5e00-11e3-8d24-31c016b976b2_story.html
Orakpo may be gone, but even if he isn’t I wouldn’t call the OLBs “dynamic”. Their DBs are worse than ours, and I’m also not scared of their DL. And as you said, no 1st rd. will hinder them in ’14.
I don’t see any of the team’s stock looking up for next year, unless the new WAS coach can work miracles with lesser talent like Chip did. But I’d still argue we have the most talent by far in the division- best WRs, best RB, best OL, arguably best TE situation (Witten is aging). Best DL maybe now, and that’s only getting better. Also the best punter.
And of course, the best coach.
The x factor in the East is cap space, where we are far and away in better situation than anyone else. With all of our youth, and the money to retain them as well as to add some nice components in FA, I’d say we’re primed to rule the East for quite a long time.
And if Foles proves in this playoff run that he is indeed the real deal, I think that’s just all bets off. Franchise QB, All-Pro runner, All-Pro o-line, up and coming young defense = SB within the next 3-4 years.
C’mon, Nick, prove us right! Pull a Brady!
If memory serves, Carlos Emmons missed the 2003 playoffs as well. Big loss there.
I was thinking the same thing. Also, the Panthers hit McNabb with a cheap shot early in the NFC championship game and he was hurt that whole game.
Wouldn’t mind knocking Brees Block off EARLY!! come on Curry!!!
I remember being absolutely FURIOUS about that hit because it was one of the most blatant late hits on a QB I’ve ever seen.
“I’m really curious what Rob Ryan does…” Hasn’t the entire league been thinking the very same thing for several years now?
Wow, Toler is Indianapolis’ Patrick Chung.
We aren’t overconfident…but I got tired of watching all the saints joke around and act like this is a game…tonight is WAR…happy they had fun all week, joking and laughing, because now it’s their turn to get punched in the mouth…
…
Two big play offenses…one faces an aggressive defense that gambles and takes chances led by a riverboat gambler DC type in Rex Ryan…there is no way a defense that takes chances like they do pinning their ears back is going to gamble right every time, and not get BURNED for big plays..
,,,
The opposing big play offense faces a defense that will give up anything to NOT give up the big play…and plays sound, fundamental football, that has been making more clutch plays every week.
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Saints score 17-24 today, and that simply won’t be enough!!
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We have 1 pigeon that we start who can’t cover anyone for the saints to pick on and that is Chung…they have 3 pigeons to pick on, Corey White a young inexperienced CB who replaced their best cover guy in Jabari Greer! major drop off?? Curtis Lofton who literally can’t cover ANY of our weapons in pass coverage. think Trotter, one of my fav eagles of all time..would you want Trotter matched up in a pass defense against Shady, Ertz or Celek? Hell no…well Lofton is the same, big! downhill LB type that Trotter was…and Roman Harper is worse then Chung, and replacing Vaccarro who is so valuable for them…
…
I want Terron Armstead to keep having to block different eagles.
Ced and Thorton twist stunting to the outside to run over the rookie
Curry should get 4 snaps against Armstead
Cole
Graham
Barwin
…
I want Armstead to have to block a different eagle every play, he won’t be able to handle all the stylistic variations of beasts we throw at him…eagles defense will be swarming around Brees all night.
,,,
eagles 30, Saints 20
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Fly birdies Fly
If Eagles done turn the ball over, we win…
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We will force Ingram to fumble tonight!
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Wow Trent Richardson blows
Hahaha Alex smith and his lucky garbage shovel pass
I haaaaaaaaaate that everyone seems to be picking the Eagles.
Just start looking at the local coverage,..many are predicting the saints..as if I give a flying fuck about that pip squeek Gonzo’s opinion of us losing 🙂
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdK2RnvIEAAQDzt.jpg
In trading for Richardson, the Colts chose … poorly.
We are one of the hottest teams..No one won 7 games the second half of the year besides us, while the saints, no one would say they played their best ball down the stretch…This is a winnable game, if we do what we do, which is NOT BEAT OURSELVES, we will have a good shot at winning this game
I don’t know how much I believe in loud noise or cold advantages, although it CAN have an effect…but one THING I DO BELIEVE is that the saints are a very different team when they leave the comfort of their controlled Dome…I dontcare who you faced on the road,or if Greet and Vaccarro got hurt, the great Brees and THAT offense, with THAT coach has NO DAMN excuse for only averaging 18pts in 8 road games…
…
And we hold teams under 22….so basically we just need both teams to be who they are, and we will be good!
Can’t wait to catch Rob Ryan in a blitz and BURN the BLEEP out of him with a big screen!
Wow, I hope the Saints play like Indianapolis. They’re already done.
Think if the home team loses the 1st game , odds are better for Eagles win/
Tommy,
Andy Reid has indoctrinated you, and you have to give up old habits. Long passes to open up the run game? Not in the Chip Kelly world, it is running game that will open up the long passes.
Run it, then run it, then run it. Force Ryan to change, not the other way around. Not pass it, pass it, pass it maybe run later….
Luck, the anointed one throws his second int in the first half…
And you won’t see any criticism. People will still refer to him as one of the greats.
Oh absolutely…he can do no wrong
Two more hours.
1 hour, 20 minutes…tic toc
Colts receivers were blocking before the ball was caught, are we the only ones that get flagged for that?
Maybe it’s the “let them play” attitude you hear about re: the playoffs.
It was really blatant tho
[URL=http://s994.photobucket.com/user/carranza002005/media/C0049611-E7F2-4563-9E4A-85273F2551E6_zpsakhxrfvw.jpg.html][IMG]http://i994.photobucket.com/albums/af67/carranza002005/C0049611-E7F2-4563-9E4A-85273F2551E6_zpsakhxrfvw.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
If Andy loses this game when he was up by like 30….smh
If he does, it’ll be because he didn’t run the ball.
Wolff Activated!
Hungry like a Wooooolff!!!!
Ah,ooooooooh (my lame attempt at a cyber howl)
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NOT TODAY DUCKER!! Season will not end today! Our boys just feel like they aren’t done yet!!…NOT TODAY!!!
We FIGHT!!
And Bully and beat up those weaker and smaller then us!!! Lol… Saints will be crying BULLYISM when this game is over…our boys are gritty, fearless and hungry….
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Let’s do this!!!
No worries! Foles and Chip are dialed-in. Crisp execution and innovation will win the day.
Yup, Chip has completely killed the Negadelphians in me! I no longer believe we are cursed, jinxed….
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can the season end without Desean returning a single punt for a TD? Tonight would be soooo the perfect time to break one..
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We need to defend the wheel routes better then they defend ours..
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Celek and Ertz need to combine for a bigger day then Jimmy Graham
I want to see a fake screen to the right, with a TE screen on the left. Kill their aggression. Nail them to the wall!!!
Sir yes sir!! I do expect us to really burn them bad with screens…hopefully we defend screens better then them tonight
as long as they’re consistent w/ both teams
Good news: the dude singing the national anthem for us tonight has a great success rate..he sang at the NFC championship game we won..sang on Freddie’s 4-26….eagles have a high success rate when he has sung the national anthem…lol No I’m not making this up..but I am grasping at strAws
On hour left boys….LETS GO!!!!
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Time to start getting a lil saucy
pic.twitter.com/UcLwUX9Cki
yeah, Luck really sucks. and Grigson too.
They took the lead
I am hoping to see Trent or Conner use a bull rush technique on Jimmy Graham every play of the game, whether he thinks he is a blocker or a receiver.
That last TD – smh – Luck catches a break when the ball caroms off of one of his O-lineman’s heads and comes right to him. He goes in for the score and spikes the ball as if he was making a big statement.
LOL two Andy Reid timeouts in a row.
Amazing, I don’t miss them one bit lol
how strange does the big fella look dressed all in red?!
https://twitter.com/PressACWeinberg/statuses/419629428084588544
Landry with a probable concussion, and his teammate is slapping him in the head.
NOT Today boys!! Not in OUR HOUSE!!!!! let’s go Bird gang!!!
KC looks like it needs some sports science in their life,,,,they lost like 10 dudes today lol
pic.twitter.com/Nualoz8HKC
That Chefs’ D sure looks…ordinary. And so does Indy’s.
Kickoff moved to 8:15
Watching KC burn through timeouts sure seems familiar…
Can’t believe they just did that – after the 2 min break and all… what a waste!
Amazing…watching that before a playoff game is a nice reminder why we are all so happy with Chip
I wish I can just shoot anyone who thinks Alex Smith is great or “just wins”. Jamaal Charles isn’t hurt, KC wins that game.
Can’t take anything away from Andrew Luck, though.
Well, I don’t think much of Andrew Luck, but that’s the same way I think of Matt Ryan. He’s obviously talented. Just hyped, and hyped, and hyped beyond belief. To the point of nausea.
That last TD pass was *very* nice. He was able to step in it and delivered a fairly long, low arc pass.
Have to hand it to him for digging himself out of the hole he dug for himself.
‘Tis true.
He battled…gotta respect that
Not that I think Alex Smith is great by any means, but Jamaal Charles missing the game isn’t why the Chiefs lost. They put up 44 points with Charles missing effectively the entire game. Defense had to come up with a stop at some point. This game has nothing to do with Alex Smith’s inadequacies.
LOL, I’m actually glad Reid didn’t get a win. After what he did to this franchise, I didn’t want to see him waltz into postseason glory without some setbacks.
Agree. I like how he did so well coaching a team not drafted by Andy Reid.
Sadly, vindication
I wonder what the run-pass ratio was in the 2nd half. Will have to monitor the Chiefs message boards to see their take on the timeouts and playcalling…
Man I don’t miss Andy.
“When you blow a time out like this, and you ignore the run game like that, it Was not long ago but it’s all coming back to me now” Celine Dion remix…E true Hollywood story
I’m too jacked up…start this fucking game before I tackle a tree!!
TheycallmeRob told me to tell you guys he says what’s up…
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he posts on PhillyMag during games! I post on blitz during our entire win streak…we didn’t wanna screw with the ju ju and post on different sites..