Many of you love numbers. Chase Stuart over at Football Perspective is one of the best people at using numbers to evaluate teams and players in a historical perspective. He just put out an interesting piece called “The Least/Most Lucky Teams When It Comes To Rings“. This one is going to hurt, both ways.
The top row indicates that the Eagles had a 6% chance of no titles since 1950 and a 12% chance of no titles since 1970. Philadelphia has 2.4 expected titles since 1950, 1.93 of which come since 1970. In reality, the Eagles have won 1.4 fewer titles than expected over the last 64 years, and 1.93 fewer than expected since the merger.
Most Unlikely Loser since the Merger: Philadelphia Eagles
Despite leading the league in DVOA or estimated DVOA four times (1980, 1981, 2001, and 2008), and racking up 1.93 hypothetical Super Bowl wins, the Eagles have nothing to show for it. Philadelphia’s lead in this category is large in part because the Vikings’ 1969 season doesn’t qualify. Even if we include the entire Super Bowl era, however, the Eagles have the highest expected number of Lombardi trophies without actually owning any silverware. They have just a 12% chance of being without a Super Bowl title as of 2014.
Ugh. And then…
Most Unlikely Winner since the Merger: New York Giants
This one is kind of amazing. The Giants have just 0.95 expected Super Bowl wins, but have 4 actual ones. When looking at New York’s DVOA ratings and playoff seedings, there was a 35% chance of no rings for Big Blue. The Giants led the league in DVOA just once since the merger (1990) and only one more time (1959) overall. New York is held out of the top spot overall by their five championship game losses between 1950 and 1966. Despite all those losses, the Giants’ recent good fortune makes them #3 in titles above expectation going back to 1950.
This will change someday.
* * * * *
The Eagles had OL coach Jeff Stoutland at Clemson’s Pro Day to work out T/G Brandon Thomas and G Tyler Shatley. Unfortunately, Thomas later tore his ACL while working out on another occasion for the Saints. He was probably going to be a 3rd to 4th round pick. The Eagles could now get Thomas at the bottom of the draft, if interested, and redshirt him for 2014.
Stoutland spent a lot of time covering stunts and blitzes with the players. He wasn’t just checking out movement skills, but rather how they followed instructions and if they were quick learners. A lot of coaches do generic movement drills in the workout sessions, focusing on just athletic ability.
Tyler Shatley, G: Shatley (6-3 1/4, 300 pounds) has 31 3/4-inch arms and is a very strong player, putting up 40 reps in the bench press. He ran the 40 in 5.17 and 5.21 seconds and had a 30 1/2-inch vertical and a 9-foot, 2-inch broad jump. He ran the short shuttle in 4.66 and the 3-cone drill in 7.95 seconds. He’s probably a third-day pick or a priority free agent.
Brandon Thomas, OT: Thomas (6-3 5/8, 318 pounds) impressed a lot of people with a good workout. He had an 8-foot, 3-inch broad jump, a 4.75 short shuttle and a 7.83 3-cone drill. He has very long arms, at 34 1/2 inches. I think he’ll be a third-day draft pick.
* * * * *
Check out CB Phillip Gaines of Rice. This kid had a great workout at the Combine and his Pro Day. From Brandt…
Phillip Gaines, CB (6-foot-0 1/8, 191 pounds) — Gaines, who has 31 1/8-inch arms, ran really good at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis (he had the second-fastest 40-yard dash time among cornerbacks at 4.38 seconds). On a windy day in Houston for Rice’s pro day and on a new turf surface, Gaines only ran the 60-yard long shuttle (11.24 seconds). Gaines surprised everybody with his speed and quality of his overall pro-day workout; performing beyond expectations, due to his speed, ability to cover and backpedaling ability. Gaines is everything teams look for in a defensive back, and he will likely be a mid-second- to mid-third-round draft choice.
Put on the game tape and you see a CB that likes to press and has very good athletic ability. Some guys test well, but it doesn’t show up on the field. Gaines does both.
Gaines broke up 18 passes in 2012. He only broke up 9 in 2013, but picked off 4 passes and added 6 TFLs. He is a productive player as well as talented. Really interesting prospect. Not sure if the Eagles are interested, but sure seems they should be.