Where do the Eagles Fit in the Big Picture?
Posted: December 3rd, 2014 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 315 Comments »I feel comfortable in saying the Eagles are the best team in the NFC East. Beyond that, it is hard to say. The NFL.com power rankings have them at #4 in the league. ESPN agrees with that. Pete Prisco of CBS has the Eagles at 5th, behind the Cardinals. With Palmer I could see that, but without him…no way.
You can argue for or against the Eagles depending on how you manipulate the facts. You can have them going to the Super Bowl or as a pretender that will be exposed in their first playoff game.
I wrote about the Eagles and the big picture for PE.com.
I didn’t come to a definitive conclusion because there are too many variables. Last year we could all see that Seattle and Denver looked like SB teams. They went 13-3 in the regular season. The worst loss for each team was a mere 7 points. This year’s frontrunners (GB, NE, DEN, PHI) all have a loss by 20 or more points. It seems that this is a wide open year in the NFL.
Prior to the season, I didn’t see the Eagles as title contenders. I didn’t think the STs unit would be nearly this good and I just felt the team was a year away. I thought Chip and Howie needed one more year of roster building to get the right guys. But because this is such an odd year, maybe the Eagles are legit title contenders, even with their issues.
I think the next couple of weeks will tell us a lot. Seattle isn’t a great road team, but they are healthy and playing their best football of the year. This will be a huge test for the Eagles. Then you get Dallas on 10 days of rest. And the Boys are a terrific road team so playing in Philly might bring out the best in them.
The Eagles seem to be playing their best football of the year. Think about Sanchez’s 4 starts.
* Had a lead of 45-7 over Carolina before allowing 2 late TDs.
* Got destroyed by GB. Eagles mistakes + good Aaron Rodgers = bad day.
* Had a lead of 40-17 over Tennessee before allowing a final TD.
* Beat Dallas 33-10.
3 of the 4 games were pretty decisive blowouts. 2 of those teams weren’t good, but the whole point is to blow out bad teams when you play them. We’ve seen Eagles teams of the past struggle with poor opponents.
As I mentioned earlier, you can talk yourself into different things based on how you use the data. It can be enough to make your head spin. That’s when you need a dish of chocolate pudding to clear your head and help you to see the Eagles are the greatest team in the history of all sports.
Or at least the 2014 NFC East.
* * * * *
My previous PE.com column was on the Dallas game.
I’m finishing up the DGR and will hopefully get that posted tonight. Loved watching the defense. Fletcher Cox is something else.
_
The Eagles must have won a big game last sunday because we’re getting igglesblitz posts twice a day.
Only thing Better than an igglesbkitz post once a day….
…is Megan Fox reading it to you wearing only pudding.
Oh, wait, I see where you were going. Never mind.
You’re right.
How about dressed like this: http://coolalbumreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Herb-Alpert_Whipped-Cream-Other-Delights.jpg
Her, along with Ms. Fox wearing pudding would be an exciting pair.
Tommy: this was hilarious btw.
“They did finish 17th in points allowed, but that’s hardly reason to set down your PBRs and start high-fiving Bill Davis.”
I forgot to put it in the last post.
This week’s game will tell us if the Eagles are contenders or not. As far as stacking up, they were better than AZ before Palmer got hurt. They dominated that game from start to finish, but lost due to 2 RZ turnovers and 2 big plays that accounted for half of AZ’s total yards. And they still had a chance to win at the end.
My dream scenario includes the Eagles winning this week and next and finishing up as a #1 or #2 seed depending on where GB ends up. Arizona and Dallas lose out and those two turn into dumpster fires. And somebody wins the NFC South at 6-10.
That last one might be my second priority after the Eagles.
How is Seattle healthy? They have a LT who is having surgery after the season, that BG and COLE are going to smash! They have a backup Center, and if that’s not bad enough, he has a French fairy name! If anyone should know what a big loss Max Ungar is for seattle it should be us. Backup Center against the baby beast Known as Bennie logan who leads all NT in tackles…advantage BIRDGANG! Even at full strength, seattle OL is nothing special, if it was wilson wouldn’t have to run all over the place… top DL is going to smash them!
…
Mebane is a HUGE LOSS for that :Defense. Even with him, they have been run on in the past. Kelce not being tied up all game with him is huge for us. But even without Mebane we are facing a top playoff defense playing real well as of late, that will load up on not letting shady beat them, forcing Sanchez to have to make some plays against the LOB..if we can run the ball this week, we can run it against anyone.
…
Our run defense will hold up! But we need our offense to move the chains, implement our tempo, and keep Sanchez on an under 30 pitch count. Can’t turn the ball over this week…keep the flags to a minimum so we can run our tempo… Having elite OLBs at setting the edge should pay huge dividends, and having Kendrick gainst Wilson, when we didn’t have him against KAp should be a big boost, allowing kendrick to help Barwin with spy duty
So, the center’s name is what? Claude Giroux? Unnecessary comment and the point where I stopped reading your verbose comment.
The last I heard, Sherman said he always lines up on the defensive left side regardless of who lines up there or anywhere else. So I’d run Cooper at Sherman all day long. Let them waste their best talent on our least!
Carroll does it, Belichick does it (sometimes). I personally wouldn’t do it, but I’m no NFL HC – for a reason.
They load up the right (defensive) side with Safety help. So if you put your worst WR on Sherman, they will kind of double your best WR (double meaning safety help). It’s a pick your poison situation.
More bigoted homophobia from you.
Can’t believe Tommy still lets you spam his otherwise mature and awesome forum with your close-minded BS.
Go away.
Where is he homophobic?
“They have a backup Center, and if that’s not bad enough, he has a French fairy name! ”
Bigots don’t scream on rooftops, they infect society with subtle “harmless” barbs like that.
Come on! I’m not saying it’s funny, but it’s neither bigot, nor homophobic. It’s just a harmless joke.
He writes he’s a “fairy” based on his French name, clearly implying that he is a bad football player because we all know gay guys can’t play football, right?
I can pull some great responses to my comments from him that further the point.
We’re better than this.
Nobody is asking me (like nobody asked you), but I much rather have his football input in the comments than people crying around because of nothing like you just did.
Geagle is sometimes stepping over the line, but not in this case.
And trust me, I’m a german liberal, I fight for gay rights like the next guy because I value civil rights in any case. If Geagle would be a homophobic idiot I would ignore him – but only because of such a comment, he’s no homphobic idiot in my books.
Eh, we can agree to disagree.
He has no actual useful football input, so that’s irrelevant to me.
And if I had the time or inclination I could dig up all sorts of fun comments from him.
But to each his own.
On to Seattle.
Oh why not, that didn’t take so long, here’s an especially good one.
“GEAGLE 24 days ago
I can’t wait til the day we do an Iggles blitz get togetner so I can punch you in your mouth and treat you like the pussy bitch that you are…
..
With that said, where does your bitch ass see a celebration of injury? Fag groupie.”
And *NOW* I promise I’m done. Enough time wasted with this.
You can criticize him when he steps over the line – like in the post you just quoted. But if you do it because of (more or less) nothing, you don’t gain credibility, at least with me.
To me, personally, your attack on him in this thread was like the guy who screams “racist” while nothing even close to racism happened. While you might think it’s not a big deal, it is imho because it belittles true racism (or homophobia, or sexism or whatever kind of discrimination there is).
I mean, its your opinion that calling someone a fairy is harmless. But just because you say it is, doesn’t make it so.
I don’t think it is. It’s far from harmless.
So we’re at an impasse on that front.
I dont always agree with what he writes, but i think you are being overly sensitive to a word that was used on a blog. Im sure at some point in your life you offended someone way worse by using a word worse then fairy. Not to mention it was a shot more at the French and their preceived personalities and life styles then gay people.
He is overtly sensitive to Geagle and takes every opportunity that he can to make something Geagle says seem worse than it is. Geagle says harsh things yes and many of the worst things he says is in retaliation to what mksp posted previously. Should Geagle have said the things, no, but you know what you will get with him. He often goes out of his way to get a rise out of Geagle.
it’s like me telling Mitchell that I think Riley Cooper is really good.
LOL! exactly!
the word “fairy” is defined, when used as slang the way it was used in that comment, as an extremely disparaging, offensive, and contemptuous word used to refer to a male homosexual.
You could correct G’s inappropriate use of language without running him off of the forum. I’m all for rocking that hatred towards other teams, players, and fan bases, but I agree with you that the comment you highlighted isn’t necessary and G shouldn’t speak that way.
Nobody here has the right to tell somebody else to leave the forum.
Reading below…I feel like I’m taking crazy pills…how does he gather so many acolytes? I agree, this WAS the topshelf Eagles blog in terms of commentary and discussion. Until it become a personal forum for some half-assed broken clock analysis. Many of best posters don’t even bother anymore and I’ve been reading this for years. It makes me sad. Hell, I only comment when it’s something so egregious it makes my blood boil.
Sheep man. Sheep.
This board is a like a microcosm of American politics. GEAGLE is the angry right winger that is totally irrational and illogical yet manages to appeal to a certain minority. They become an echo chamber and ruin everything.
“Don’t argue with an idiot, he’ll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.”
There’s a reason why he’s been kicked off so many boards. The crazy thing is that Tommy lets him go.
C’est la vie.
I agree. I’ve been reading this site since it began (very infrequent poster) and before that at Scouts Notebook and IgglesBlog, and every year or so there’s always some guy who seems to spend all his time here and posts divisive pablum. It makes it so I visit less (why I never read BleedingGreenNation anymore) or at least rarely read the comments, which is a shame since this and IgglesBlog used to be a great source for Eagles discussion.
Philly has done better than most teams this year.. they’ve only allowed 1 hundred yard rusher.. The front seven are coming into their own.. Shutting down the league’s leading rusher to his lowest totals of the year…. Our LB corps is just tearing it down.. Connor Barwin is a Def Pro Bowler along with a few others, with all these sacks! Thus being downing the name The Sack Pack.. the secondary is getting better.. please just keep saying they have no chance haters.. they seem to do better.. Every team mentioned therefore has a big loss this season.. Green Bay, Denver, New England.. It just seems to happen, but that hasn’t made them bad..has it? The Eagles have played most of the season with backups of backups on the O line.. and won!!!! In all sense Philly should truly only have 1 loss right now.. They lost 2 games, one to San Fran and one to Arizona in the last minutes of each game by giving up the “Big Play”.. should have never gave up those points with no time left.. Philly is much better than people wanna think.. the reason their totals on Defense are so high is because the Offense isn’t on the field long when your running a play every 20 seconds and scoring.. that in turn means your defense will be on the field longer,, so just keep talking that smack.. 2 years straight this offense is in the top 5 of the NFL.. Its coming I promise.. so well keep flying and the haters can keep hating.. EaglesNation all day everyday!!!
Love how quickly the blowout win IN Dallas ON Thanksgiving is being marginalized universally. Going into that game it was “#1 Rushing Team”, “Witten always kills Philly”, “Dez cannot be stopped”. 33-10 later it’s “Romo is playing crippled”, “they played on short rest”, “bad home team”, blah blah blah. Hilarious.
You know we’d get not stop Cowboys on NFL Network and ESPN if they had won that game.
Yup, that was the story they wanted to tell.
Don’t know if anyone else caught it or not (might have been an honest mistake) but at the beginning of the 3rd QTR when the Cowgirls were bringing their offense out they put up the stats. Rushing stats were missing – only passing, first downs, ETC. Wonder if it was because we were killing them and all week it was “Dallas rushing gonna run all over philly…”?
The “Inside the NFL Crew” spent about 9 seconds discussing the blowout. I understand (and appreciate!) Michael Irvin being silent, but the extent of the “analysis” came from Boomer: “Romo didn’t look right.” Perhaps because he was getting thrown around by the Eagles defense and then was forced to watch McCoy run up and down his field?
Thanksgiving day game gets forgotten by Monday, especially after the Brady/Rodgers/apocalypse. No real TC content created thanksgiving day weekend.
You are forgetting that they needed to justify why all of them thought Dallas would win in the first place. They couldn’t be wrong, ergo Romo must’ve been hurt.
they won’t fess up yet, if they win thursday and we lose sunday, then they beat us the Sunday after that, they get to say they were right all along, rather than admit they were wrong and risk having to again admit they were wrong.
It’ll be interesting to see if any jump on the bandwagon next week or are content to be wrong twice..
they will be all over Dallas again bc they will have 10 days rest and are “ROAD warriors”… weak. GO BIRDS!
The thing is they’re partly right. Romo is a sitting duck.
Romo is hurt, and I hope that the Bears take advantage of that.
Bears have the weapons…. on offense. I hope they can pull their D together and generate enough pressure on Romo.
I haven’t seen much mention at all of the game in national news, to be honest. I’ve been seeing a lot of that this year, but I’m confused as to what the reason would be.
These power rankings make me thankful we use a set divisional / record system to determine the post-season and not a BCS ranking or “secret committee” system employed in the NCAA.
that’s exactly why division winners, no matter what their records, should get a home playoff game. otherwise, the only way to seed division and wildcard winners who get fat records in bad divisions and intradivisional games is do some sort of Harris computer poll.
I’m just tired of hearing Peter King etc. whine about division winners etc. every 4-5 years. Like you suggest, why don’t we dock points from the Pats for the past 10 years for being in a division with a bunch of teams that are terrible (save the Jets for a couple of the Sanchez years).
King’s going off the reservation about this. And that’s fine. Except his tone is, “I know more than anyone.” He gets unreadable when he strays from reporting rumors or at least saying that others who disagree may have a valid point.
He’s almost always unreadable to me.
nothing secret about the new CFP committee. It’s 4 people who know about what we know — maybe less ;-]
Everyone hates Philly until they get here.
New Yorkers, too?
yes we all hate New Yorkers
Anyone look at the Dallas win at Seattle and see what Dallas did offensively? I had heard the Seahawks had key players out due to injury but I don’t know who.
Dallas ran the ball effectively keeping their defense off of the field. Seattle is small up front, and against a team like Dallas who has a pretty solid oline, they got beat up front.
Eagles can do that. I’m sure Carroll is thinking to stop the run first.
Last year we could all see that Seattle and Denver looked like SB teams. They went 13-3 in the regular season. The worst loss for each team was a mere 7 points. This year’s frontrunners (GB, NE, DEN, PHI) all have a loss by 20 or more points.
Did you not mention this year’s Seahawks on purpose, Tommy?!
I am asking because all 4 losses by SEA did come by a combined mere 24 points, with their “worst” defeat being a 21-30 loss to the Chargers (in week 2).
To me that sounds like the Eagles might be facing the future defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday…
you make every team we face the best team ever. Cheer up mate. Our guys get paid too.
Lol, I’m good, mate.
Just putting Seattle’s record and close losses into perspective. 😉
If Green Bay clinches home field advantage, if I had to bet my life on it I’m heavilly leaning towards them going to the super bowl this year. That said, “any given Sunday”.
what separates them from the team they were last year? They’ve been handled before, nothing to say they can’t get handled again.
Handled by the Eagles last year regular season/49ers during playoffs, or by the Seahawks in week 1? Answer to the first one is Healthy Aaron Rodgers, the second is Q- i mean Century Link Field vs Lambeau.
A87:
Full join.
Yes, but of those teams, who’s been blown out recently? It appears to me that…right now…the two best teams are GB and NE, with Den in the vicinity and Sea and Phi decent, but suspect.
I don’t think that was the point of the discussion. The point I was trying to make was Seattle never been blown out as of today while they have been competitive in every game.
Should the Seahawks beat the Eagles at the Linc they must be considered heavy Super Bowl favourites again.
Interesting argument.
Good point.
My point was that the better teams have been winning lately and, with the exception of Phi-GB, winning more convincingly than Seattle. Who cares what happened in weeks 1-8 at this point? People have gotten injured. People have healed. People have learned. Etc. Etc. The last few weeks are, to my mind, the best indicator.
Agreed. Let’s hope the Eagles give us a good indicator on Sunday where this team is heading this season (⬆️⬆️⬆️).
I think the reason he listed those teams was just that they’re the ones with the best record (9-3) less the Cards who look super-cruddy sans Palmer.
Not sure I’d have them as heavy favourites but if I had to bet the mortgage on someone Seahawks would definitely be up there.
One of the regulars on the Eagles Blog posted the following statistics that are very relevant to answering the question posed by Tommy
[quote name=”Connecticut Eagle” post=”18971375″ timestamp=”1417621280″]
More facts to consider…
Shady and OL combinations (only considered the presence of our real starting five)
Peters/Kelce/Herremans – 41 carries, 153 yards, 3.7 average
Peters/Herremans – 29 carries, 39 yards, 1.3 average
Peters/Herremans/Johnson – 67 carries, 313 yards, 4.7 average
Peters/Kelce/Johnson – 24 carries, 117 yards, 4.9 average
Peters/Mathis/Kelce/Johnson – 81 carries, 396 yards, 4.9 average
[/quote]
Celek was a pedestrian blocker til Lane Johnson came here last year. And when Johnson was on suspension, Celek reverted to pedistrian blocker
A lot of that was Celek having to help the RT with their blocking assignments in addition to his own.
Awesome post!
picking up on mattwill’s comment, If you had to allocate credit between the OL and Shady how would you apportion? Say replacing each with a “replacement level” player.
In the Lions game last year, I thought Shady was a big big reason for the success. I gave the OL credit too. But this year, I really think it’s OL >> Shady.
I’d cheat and allocate a small amount to Sanchez on the read option. When he freezes the DE or Safety, good things happen. See
http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2014/12/03/22-option-football-sanchez/
yes so true, which, I mean, what does that mean for Foles. It seems like just being a slightly credible runner is not a necessary factor, but a really nice thing to have. Can you do without it? yes but not as easily. It seems to be Foles has to be that much better at other things to make up for that.
I’m not saying we need a running QB.
Running QBs get hurt. Mobile QBs like Rogers make things happen. I could throw Wilson in there because he usually avoids hits by running out of bounds.
TRUE CONFESSIONS: I came with Chip to the Eagles because I had to see the MAGIC again. It’s like a drug – once you’re hooked you just can’t get enough. When the score is 40 to 3 you scream you want 50; then you hit 50, and start to drool and mumble – 60 would be cool, man.
Chip has Carroll’s number. I want to drool and mumble once again. Bring it, Eagles!
OD:
Some legal advice . . .
Never confess.
Heeeheee, busted again AD.
should you ever take the plea deal?
Depends on your lawyer.
Sometimes you don’t have a choice — even if not guilty. Lots of reasons. (Deal too good to pass up versus risk of losing where defendant lacks financial resources to fight a fair fight with the govt, for example.)
Among the many reasons why lawyers shouldn’t ask their clients, in the first meeting, to “tell me what happened” is so that both counsel and client have the benefit of the evidence before figuring out what happened.
I’m not suggesting a client should lie. And I tell clients that if they do lie on the stand, I must — and will have to — the judge and ask to withdraw.
Hence, “never confess” . . . at least until your lawyer gets there!
Next time I find myself in court (will be the first time so I would be helpless) I am totally coming to igglesblitz for legal advice. And don’t try the “I’m not that type of Lawyer” line on me because second resource is “Law and Order” marathon
Wait, shouldn’t you confess before your lawyer gets there but after asking for him?
#lawandordermarathonlawlibrary
Absolutely . . .
As long as you (i) are in “custody,” (ii) haven’t been Mirandized, and (iii) didn’t speak once in custody before the cops had the chance to Mirandize you.
That’s a lot to remember, I just take 5 to 10 minimum security.
Unless I can get out of jail free by turning state’s evidence.
BB:
For experienced criminal actors whose businesses are illegal from top to bottom (drug dealers . . . and perhaps NFL coach Bill Belichick) . . .
The smart, successful ones know this drill cold.
_________________
Also . . .
1. After a car accident, always be the first one to speak to the cop. Unless you’re out cold — in which case, you’re likely the victim anyway.
2. Never take a breathalyzer. EVER.
3. Always have the name and phone number of a lawyer you trust, or whom a very close friend or family member trusts, in your wallet — to call in the event of an incident that could remotely lead to the cops involvement.
________________
Of course, I’m not rendering any legal advice here.
At all.
not that I plan to need this advice, but it’s interesting so I can’t help myself. Why # 2? say I had 1-2 beers while out to dinner and am legally sober, and isn’t refusal to take it means I lose my license (granted, state specific), how or why refuse?
Beat me to it
RNE:
Unless you’ve tested your blood-acohol level before getting behind the wheel, yours seems a risky proposition. IMHO.
But if you’re a large person with a healthy liver, and your last drop of the 1 beer you had was more than 3 hours before getting behind the wheel . . . then it’s probably a fair risk to take the B-test.
And . . . refusal to take the B-test generally means an administrative suspension of your license — but one, upon affirmative proof of sobriety that can be overturned (see above).
Blowing a positive B-test, though? Bad all the way around.
I googled and learned MA has implied consent law. Cop chooses which test to give you. I don’t think saying I want a blood test is a choice.
If you fail a B-test, you’ll be arrested and spend the night in jail.
But if, for example, you can prove (by receipt at a restaurant for example) that you had only a small quantity of alcohol, you want to demand a blood test to support your argument that the B-test was inaccurate.
There’s no right to have a blood test. But the fact of your request has evidentiary value. (I should have been clear about that.)
dropping knowledge.
and for # 3, the answer of course is Better Call Saul!!
So I’d be the sucker who would be eager to prove my stone cold sobriety. Are those things rigged or what? What’s the story there?
My assumption is you’ve had a drink.
If you haven’t had a drink, take the breathalyzer. And if you fail, demand to be taken to the hospital for a blood test.
If you had a drink but refuse the breathalyzer, the cops will take you to the hospital for a blood test.
In the time it takes to get you from arrest to hospital — unless you’re drunk off your ass — the level of alcohol in your blood generally will go down by the time you’re tested . . . maybe enough to avoid the legal limit for intoxication.
That said, refusing the B-test will trigger — in most states — an administrative penalty of having your license suspended.
If you can prove you’re not DWI (by your blood test), you’ll (i) avoid conviction, and (ii) be entitled to get your license suspension lifted.
Getting the DMV to reinstate your license is a story for another day.
But the point — if you’ve had a drink — of refusing the breathalyzer is to (i) buy time for your blood test, because (ii) if you were DWI . . . YOU ARE SCREWED either way.
Better to suffer the brief (relatively speaking) inconvenience of getting your license restored than having DWI conviction.
Should probably address the field sobriety test as well.
Never believe the client, believe the evidence.
So, after all that, can we safely assume you’re a lawyer IRL? Attorney Client Viking? Never really learned the origins of your name.
Glad to see you are feeling more chipper than before the Dallas game.
Thanks Rob, I was really down. Shouldn’t have let it get me but I did.
I tell you the first half of the first Chip Kelly game (Redskins, as if you don’t remember) I was sitting in a trance. Friends (Pats fans) texting me going WTF and OMG. I am waiting for that combination to happen again. No other game has quite felt like that first half.
I don’t think you will get that because we are kind of numb to it. But those first 2 drives against dallas were amazing. No penalties no negative plays (if i rem correctly) just clean execution moving right down the field without even breaking a sweat.
yeah we put that game away in the first 20 minutes, it was amazing to see how efficiently we moved.
Love under-dog weeks, just an opportunity for something great, for something memorable. Losses never hurt as bad, especially with a chance to put Dallas away for good the next week. Just a great chain of events, beat Dallas on Thanksgiving, get to play underdog to Seattle at home this Sunday, then a chance to more or less clinch the NFC East next week.
A87 wrote:
“Just a great chain of events, . . . get to play underdog to Seattle at home . . . .”
_______________
The Eagles are not underdogs this week, according to the Vegas line.
They’re the favorites.
Birds are giving Seattle 1.5 points — which I guess means that on a neutral field the Seahawks would be a 1.5 point favorite.
Should the Eagles be bigger favorites — i.e., be giving more points?
Bettors don’t think so today. Maybe tomorrow, the line’ll move.
Hate to say it, If I weren’t an Eagles fan, I would definitely bet against those vegas odds. Only 2 reasons you think the Eagles can beat the Seahawks, either you’re looking at the record, or you’ve if you’ve been watching very closely and are projecting the Eagles to a level they haven’t proven yet (a benefit of the doubt I as an Eagles fan easily give). Everyone in between I would expect to take that bet everytime and bet on the Seahawks.
I’m no gambler. But I’m always fascinated by how the line by Sunday at kickoff in so many games seems to be the difference.
Maybe this year’s an anomaly. But the line’s general accuracy’s an impressive phenomenon.
I’ve been told the line isn’t made by football guru’s or anything, just people with an amazing feel for setting a line that will get a pretty even number of bets on both sides. So really I guess it is delicately placed to mirror average public perception?
Yeah, the line has nothing to do football -it’s indicative of how bets are coming in.
Bookies try to get equal money down on either side.
They make their money (in the long haul) through their vig not by winners/losers.
bookies for sure are in the juice business.
“vig” . . . nice touch.
Vig, moxie, dames, busted kneecaps, soap in a sock…
I’m pretty sure that those ‘just people’ watch football 24/7 while occasionally reading the injury reports. 😉
makes sense though right? Because football media are what generate public opinion (or more specifically gambler opinion) more than say, hardcore film study or crazy analytics. What better way to keep your finger on the pulse of what viewers are going to be thinking when it’s time to place their bet.
More importantly, I think, is that the line moves based on the number of bets placed on either side. So, in essence, the line represents the collective wisdom.
Keynes — one of the all-time stock-investing geniuses (w/ Buffett and Baruch) — wrote in his “General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” that the goal in investing is to figure out what other people think will happen, the collective wisdom . . . NOT what will happen.
That’s why the bookies get paid for (and no small wages).. 😉
One point at home means the bookies think the Eagles are going to lose.
interesting. thx
Yep, that’s how Vegas works. If people think two teams are even then the home team usually gets a spread of -3 which should reflect the home field advantage.
Except it’s not if they think they’re even, it’s what do they need to do to get 50% of the betting on either side of the line…in other words, what do they think everyone else will think.
Which brings us back to the even argument. Lol
P P K probably covered this better, but I wanted to make sure you got my 2 cents.
I get into this argument all the time with people. Bookies don’t care who wins or loses…unless they set the line incorrectly and too much money came down on one side or the other. They want to see 50% bet on each side of the line so they can take their 10% vig from the winners with no risk.
They set a line based on what they think the people will think. Last week, “the people” thought Dallas was a good as the Eagles. Most of us knew better. I would imagine bookies in Philadelphia had to lay off a lot of bets to other areas to keep from taking a bath.
If the Eagles were to play Dallas this week, the line would probably be significantly in the Eagles favor, because “the people” tend to overreact.
By the way, spent the Jax game at Wogies in Manhattan. It was fun singing Fly, Eagles, Fly with 150 of my new closest friends.
Wogies sounds cool, never been there tough.
If you’re around in NYC for an Eagles gAme again just give me a shout and I will show you Shorty’s where it’s crazy atmosphere too!
right.
so w/ the Eagles giving 1.5 points suggests the bettors have Seattle as the slightly better team on a neutral field?
Not even on a neutral field. It means that Seattle is the favourite at the Linc.
Forgive the elementary nature of this question but . . .
If the Eagles are *giving* 1.5 points, how can Seattle be the favorite?
forgiven. 😉
Good question. Lol
If two teams are perceived dead even, it’s assumed that the home team will win by a field goal. The Eagles being favored by less than three points at home implies that Vegas believes that Seattle is the better team, but doesn’t think that strongly enough to cancel out that home field advantage. So, Vegas believes that Seattle is better, but circumstances favor the Eagles.
Does the home-field give the Eagles — in the betting world — a 1.5 point advantage?
I understand that on a neutral field, Seattle’s the favorite (in the betting world).
It should give them a 3 pt advantage, of which Seattle’s perceived advantage chips away 1.5.
CS:
So, if I’m understanding, the 1.5 points the Eagles are giving means Seattle is perceived as the better team — regardless of where the game’s played — and the 1.5 points is just to even the betting on both sides?
Or does the 1.5 points just reflect equalizing the betting — and NOT reflect on which team is perceived as better?
I think its the former. H-E-L-P.
[by the way, thanks – nicely explained]
It’s the Former, my friend.
I’ve spent a lot of time betting (McNabb once won me a very fine watch) so here’s my take. Vegas is in business to make money. That’s all they do. They vary the line based on maximizing their profits by getting as many people as possible to put money down. Doesn’t matter to them which team the bettors pick. As long as the money is in play, Vegas comes out ahead. A big reason for this is the money line is usually 110/100. This means you have to wager $110 to win $100. If I take the Eagles and 1.5 over Seattle and I win the bet, I win $100. On the same game, if I lose the bet I lose $110.
In terms of the point spread and which team is better, there is some overlap but the determining factor is how much money the bookies think they can get into play. The home team is almost always given 3 points for homefield advantage. I often use the Vegas point spread to get some idea of what the games look like to an objective observer. I believe it’s a fairly close indicator of which team is actually predicted to win.
One more thing, in all my years I never bet against the Eagles. Proud of that.
PPK . . .
fantastic breakdown.
and admirable loyalty.
I did. Once and once only. Going into 1998 a friend of mine tried to claim the Eagles were going to be 8-8. I laughed in his face and took $50 off of him when they finished 3-13.
hopefully you don’t be on the eagles — they were killing me on the spreads earlier in he season.
My bookie went out of business so I’ve been laying low this year. Hope the rest of the season, and the playoffs, treat you better.
Glad you’re proud. Although, if you could also say you’d never bet ON the Eagles, I’d say you’re smart, too.
I mean, none of it really means anything on its own. The betting lines reflect where the bookies think the bet will split things evenly at 50%. Home field advantage, in this sense, is only important because betters think it is, not because it’s an automatic, tried-and-true fact. The way people talk about Vegas, it seems like it’s one person/group setting the lines. It’s much more likely that they’re asking a bunch of people and averaging their guesses at the spread. From an article on wisdom of the crowds:
“It was in 1906 that Galton made his discovery of what is known as the wisdom of crowds. He attended a farmers’ fair in Plymouth where he was intrigued by a weight guessing contest. The goal was to guess the weight of an ox when it was butchered and dressed. Around 800 people entered the contest and wrote their guesses on tickets. The person who guessed closest to the butchered weight of the ox won a prize.
After the contest Galton took the tickets and ran a statistical analysis on them. He discovered that the average guess of all the entrants was remarkably close to the actual weight of the butchered ox. In fact it was under by only 1lb for an ox that weighed 1,198 lbs. This collective guess was not only better than the actual winner of the contest but also better than the guesses made by cattle experts at the fair. It seemed that democracy of thought could produce amazing results.”
http://www.all-about-psychology.com/the-wisdom-of-crowds.html
CS:
That’s a really get story.
Do you know what were the off-shoots of those conclusions? In terms of making and beating markets?
No idea–I’m more interested in psychology and logic. For that kind of thing, you’d have to ask someone with a background in finance/economics. But as a guess, most people who “beat” the market are exploiting a flaw (often cheating), or are lying. With regards to gambling, you’re not going to beat Vegas for very long…
There’s a similar theory that, when estimating something, the more guesses you make at variables, the closer you end up to the actual.
I should say the “money” thinks the Eagles will lose.
Sports gambling is a great example of pure market forces (and how markets, unlike the cliche are very frequently wrong).
No it means Vegas thinks eagles will win by one when playing at home.
Some key advantages for us to exploit:
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1) One of the big differences between last years SUPERBOWL defense, and the seattle defense this year is depth. After winning the Super Bowl they lost some key depth pieces for their front 7 rotation which was a big part of last years Super Bowl win,,,Today Seattle still has a quality front 7 but it lost a lot of its depth that they used to send at teams in waves, so this seattle defense can be really exploited by our tempo attack, they don’t have waves of bodies that they are comfortable throwing at offenses, so wearing down their starters should really put them at a disadvantage.
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2) Think it’s clear that we have been kind of saving Sproles. Probably didn’t feel we needed to use him much to win some of these recent games. Now that we get to DECEMBER and January, I expect the usage rate of Sproles to grow drastically, even if it’s something’s as simple as sending him in motion so he can take some attention out of the box for shady to run….
but THIS week I’m REALLY EXCITED about taking advantage of Seattles punt coverage, where they certainly seem to be missing Maragos, one of the worst punt coverage units in the NFL THATS giving up an average of 13yards per return which is pretty terrible. Sproles should have some opportunities to do some SERIOUS damage as a punt returner this week, but I do expect to see a spike in his offensive snaps now that we are in crunch time..
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3)Big Advantages in The Keystone positions, the battles of Center vs, NT favor the Eagles BIGTIME, on both sides of the ball. When your center and NT is getting his butt whipped at the LOS, it can really screw up everything for a team trying to execute its offensive or defensive scheme. Winning the interior of the trenches can have some serious trickle down effects
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This isn’t an advantage, but I feel like our defense is one of the most equipped to deal with a Houdini escape artist QB like Wilson because we do a great job of Discaplined pass rush as one unit. You don’t see any eagle pass rushers just do there own thing to get a sack. We have some selfless rushers who have done a great job of pass rushing, while also being Discaplined and accountable for the other rushers…. Against Wilson, you keep him in the pocket, and he becomes easier to defend. We did a good job of containing KAp and Cam, not letting them out of the pocket, and we Need to be sharp in our containment this week…Keep wilson in the pocket, don’t turn the ball over, we should win this game
I def think we might get a boost from ST. I watched their last game and they struggled a bit on ST against SF. If they make those same mistakes against the Eagles, they will pay for it.
I do think Sproles is going to have a decent day and I’m feeling a TD return in the punt game this week.
Yes sir… Seattle is certainly one of our toughest games in the last two years, and there defense has played much better as of late since Wagner came back into the lineup…. But I feel like people are getting a little carried away with the last two defensive performances…. Shutting down any NFL offense is impressive, but the 49er and Cardinals offenses haven’t exactly been these juggernauts as of late……I don’t think it takes a top rated defense to shut down the niner or Cardinal offense these days..
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I also think people aren’t taking into account enough how diffent of a team seattle can be at home, and on the road. Much differemt on the road than at home and I like the way our defense matches up with their offense. We are talking about a offense that only scored 30 points 3 times all year, vs. Pathetic Giants, vs. Pathetic Raiders. And vs. GB on opening night.. This team struggles to put up points, our friggin ST might out score them lol (jk relax)… Their WRs are decent matchups for our Corners, Wilson isnt anything special from the pocket. Their TE’s should be completely shutdown with how well we have Been defending TE’s…
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defense really only has a few things it needs to be worried about:
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1) Contain, Contain, Contain…Keeping Wilson in the pocket, is more important than sacking him.. And if he is able to get out of the pocket, PLASTERING becomes CRUCIAL! As soon as he escapes the pocket, DBs have to drop what they are doing and plaster the closest SEAHAWK, because we don’t want toget burnt like when Gore caught that pass againsg Marcus Smith and wolff couldn’t make the tackle. That’s an example of what can happen this week if we don’t contain, and then Plaster if the containment breaks down…
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2) Stop the BEASTMODE. I’m not even sure seattle is capable of winning if you take away BEASTMODE
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3) this isnt an explosive pffense other than the run game with wilson and Marshawn, but Russel Wilson is really really tricky ball handler and guys like Nate can’t let wilson fool him with ball handling and play action fakes. this team is not a good vertical passing game. So let’s not make boneheaded errors and give Up the big play.
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Normally Cary Williams would play down to the level of WRs like Kearse and Baldwin who Cary doesnt fear.. But fortunately no one overlooks defending SB champ, so I expect Cary to be focused and not play down to the level of their “meh down field passing attack”… This is a very doable challenge for Cary and Brad, they can’t be giving up the big play this week, not to this average passing attack
1) Good luck. That D is still good.
2) Pete Carroll mentioned Sproles about 6 times today when being interviewed on Sirius NFL about Sunday’s game. I agree that we need to get crazy innovative with some Sproles + Shady looks to try to negate creep mode by Seattle’s safety tandem.
3) The only place I like us in this game is on the line. If we don’t get confused by how Seattle lines up (I’m looking at your Sanzhez, Allen, and Casey Matthews) on both sides of the ball, we should be able to hang tough in this game.
I still see a loss. A close loss to a better team, but a loss.
The only place you like us is in the line? Lucky for us that what happens in the trenches usually decides how the game unfolds.. I’d rather have an advantage in the trenches than anywhere else
I’m not going to disagree with you, but I really see this game as one we lose based on a really bad mistake from Sanchez, Casey Matthews, and/or Nate Allen.
I think we come up one play short due to a mental error.
Fair enough… This is certainly a winnable game for both teams, I also expect it to be a a very tough game for both teams. No one will be winning easy this week
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Personally I don’t expect to ever see us lose too many games when we win the battle on both sides of the trenches. Even if the battle is even, I like our chances because their offense isn’t very potent….but if they win the line of scrimmage, I don’t see how we could win the game….this is a crucial week for the big boys up front…
… The battle in the trenches is literally the first thing I pay attention to when looking at a matchup
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Another aspect of this matchup that I like is we aren’t facing some explosive offense that can go up 14-0 in the blink of an eye the way GB did…on the road, it hasn’t been that easy for seattle to put up points, where we are capable of putting up a lot of points in a short period of time….if we can get out to a lead against this team, they probably feel the pressure to abandon their methodical approach to offense and start pressing and taking some chances that could lead to opportunities(mistakes) we can captilize on..
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think if we get out to a lead, and score some points early, it’s going to be a huge advantage for us.
GE wrote:
“Personally I don’t expect to ever see us lose too many games when we win the battle on both sides of the trenches.”
_______________
Excellent point, I think. Can’t be understated.
Take your choice . . . .
Steelers of the ’70s.
Raiders from late ’60s to mid-80s.
Dolphins under Shula (pre-Marino).
Cowboys with Jimmy Johnson.
49ers from early ’80s to late ’90s.
All those teams were big-time winners because they generally won on both sides of the ball.
QBs, RBs and WRs can’t put up HOF numbers if the QB’s lying on his ass . . . or there’s no room to run . . . or the other team has the ball and the lead most of the game.
100% true, but I have a nagging feeling we lose the game on a dumb mistake.
And you need to substitute in “steroids” with the 70s Steelers and you’ve got a more perfect list.
Steroid Steelers . . .
Sad but true for some on the O-line.
At the time, though, nothing remotely illegal or even questionable about its use. Not until the mid-80s.
I find everything done by Pittsburgh to be illegal, questionable, contemptible, despicable, and indefensible.
I once had a girlfriend from the Pittsburgh area. I think I agree with your assessment.
Who wasn’t using steroids, amphetamines, painkillers, etc. in the 70’s?
A lot of people. The Steelers set that cheating trend.
The dumb mistake will probably be a blown coverage by the backfield, right? I think we have enough firepower to factor in a big mistake and still come out on top.
Or Casey Matthews on Lynch out of the backfield.
Mistake I would be worried about is Wilson’s really good “ball handling” fooling Nate into biting on play action or something.
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I’m not sure we can overcome turning the ball over this week so ball security is more critical than ever….
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I do like that scoring points is like pulling teeth at times for this seattle team, where as they can,shut us down all game and we can explode for 14 points in two minutes..
Re: Seahawks’ Own Statement Against Interest?
Back during training camp, Jimmy Kempski wrote that — heading into the 2013 postseason — the one team Seattle did not want to face was the Eagles, even at home, apparently.
Now, we get to see how Seattle does against Kelly’s Eagles. And without the benefit of the home crowd.
Here’s the article on his philly.com blog.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/What-theyre-saying-Seahawks-wanted-to-avoid-Eagles-in-2013-playoffs.html
Pete Carroll was VERY complimentary of everything with the Eagles today on Sirius NFL. He mentioned Sproles about 6 times in the interview.
Seattle isn’t taking us lightly at all.
Carroll and Kelly . . .
What’s the truth — as best we know it — about their relationship?
They both use some of the same training techniques.
And of course Carroll was a BSD, with scalps on the wall, well before Kelly (who’s still looking for his first).
My understanding is that Chip and Pete are friends. When Chip was still at Oregon he visited a few of Petes SEAHAWK practices….
Question I hope we don’t have to ask… If Pete manages to strike Chip down in this lightsaber duel, will Chip become more powerful than Pete can possibly imagine?
I also think part of this was to further humiliate the Niners and their “sorry” players.
Think Brandon Gowton of BGN got that info from an interview with Maragos.
I didn’t realize we had gotten Maragos from Seattle. What a great signing, the guy is a ST beast.
Take a look at how poor Seattles punt coverage unit is, like 29th or 30th ranked… They give up like 13yards per punt return which is pretty horrible…sounds like they miss Maragos, also sounds like a BIGTIME opportunity for Sproles having a monster day in the return game…
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I will be on the edge of my seat everytime they punt this week
That’s a really significant stat. In a tight game, Sproles could be the guy who puts the ball over the line. Figuratively and, hopefully, literally.
Yes sir… they say, you have a quality punt returner if he can average 10 yards per punt return. if he can average 15 yards per return we talking Deon Sanders greatness….and this seattle special teams gives up 13 yards per return…that’s a pretty piss poor unit that is spending this week worried about how they are going to shed the blocks from all our ST beasts, and then make the tackle against Darren Sproles…Danger! Danger! Danger! Need to take advantage of this, and you Can bet Maragos has our Special teams unit Salivating for this opportunity..
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I wonder what type of advantage if any we get from Maragos being a key member of our opponents ST unit past year? Can Maragos give us any Valuable info that we can’t get from Film study?
Good stuff, you’re on a roll.
The area of greatest value Re: Maragos is going to be the color of his uniform on Sunday.
Yep. Sproles could come up big, but only figuratively.
Good one. When he stands alongside his teammates he looks like a kid.
I have decoded your secret message… S.O.S. A.I.
Does this mean that if the Sixers put Allen Iverson back on the court, he can save the season, and also bolster the confidence of the city of Philadelphia, which will help launch the Eagles to Super Bowl victory this year?
Gary Cobb has written something on his website entitled, “The Eagles Must Run the Football Against the Seahawks.” Part of my reaction to the piece was remembering how frustrated I felt about this kind of situation when Reid was still coaching. I’m not here to rip Reid but to express my appreciation and respect for Chip. Seems like Chip wants to win football games. Obviously, but above all else, he wants to win football games. He’s not locked into an approach or a dogma. He is flexible with strategy and the use of his players. It’s remarkable, too, to think how good of a coach he can become since he’s only in his second year in the NFL. Go Chipper!
The good old mighty Gary Cobb. Totally forgot about him. Thanks for bringing him up.
Re: Reid
Two things.
First, when McNabb was injured, Reid’s game plans routinely elevated the importance of the running game.
Second, you wrote:
“Seems like Chip wants to win football games. . . . He’s not locked into an approach or a dogma. He is flexible with strategy and the use of his players.”
Reid racked up a level of success that Kelly will have a heck of time equaling.
It’s hard to argue with Reid’s philosophy in Years 1-6, given his success.
As for why Reid didn’t run more — especially with the likes of Thrash and Pinkston at WR and Staley, Buck, and Westy at RB — remains beyond my understanding.
And it really bothered me.
But Reid’s philosophy worked in the first half of his tenure. As Kelly’s seems to be so far.
You wrote, “First, when McNabb was injured, Reid’s game plans routinely elevated the importance of the running game.”
This is part of what drove me so crazy. The running game would prove effective, Don would return to the field, and Andy would return to his imbalanced pass-run ratio.
You are right about Reid’s success, though. Those last couple of years were so frustrating that sometimes I don’t give the guy enough credit. Perhaps it’s like any relationship that ends on a sour note, the later bad times can erase the memories of earlier good times.
PPK:
You’re preaching to the quire!
There were games the Eagles won after which I be ticked off because of all the passing.
A huge O-line, great RBs — especially Westbrook — and a fantastic defense under a brilliant D-coordinator . . .
And Reid just insisted on throwing the ball when D-Mac was the QB.
It was insanity at times.
Actually, I believe he is preaching to the esquire.
Laughing!
Man, we bitched about that for years. I guess we can’t put it behind us until we win a SB with Kelly.
Lets separate SB run and post SB run. During the SB run we had a good run pass ratio, the problem is fans remember things like 2009 or 2010 with Marty as OC and McNabb or Vick bombing to Jackson as how the Eagles played from 2000 to 2004
Man, it used to drive me insane that ANDYs best coaching games ALWAYS came when our backup QB was playing.
.,
I used to wish for andy to just pretend like he was game planning for Garcia or Feely, and then call those same exact plays for Donovan.. It drove me insane how awesome Reids game plans were for our backup QBs… We don’t have a Super Bowl because of how Stubborn andy is
GE:
“I used to wish for andy to just pretend . . . ”
pearl
“Yes”?
“…that everything was a ham sammich”
I finished that for you.
“We don’t have a Super Bowl because of how Stubborn andy is.”
Strong statement. I agree. I wonder if Donovan and other players feel the same way.
I have heard iike Reese, Trotter, Hollis Thomas and obviously westbrook all tell fans that “the players felt the fans pain” when it came to the lack of run game.
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I have heard so many players from that era who are now media members tell stories about big games we lost saying things like “there is no doubt in my mind that had we ran the ball in the second half we would have won that way”..I have heard them tell stories of our players being Furious on the sideline during some Of those big games we lost screaming to run the ball… This shouldn’t come to surprise to anyone, but I heard andy used to drive Runyan crazy”
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Btw, does anyone listen to Hollis Tank Thomas on the radio? He is really really good, one of the only people worth listening to on the radio
I try to catch Baldy Tue-Thu – he’s pretty spot on in his analysis.
Baldi is so hit or miss. He can be really good, but he can also be the biggest blowhard out there..
..,
You know who is really good philly media member? Really has a great understanding of this eagle team, where as I think most media members don’t have about the team they spend every day covering….Matt Lombardo. He isn’t a big name philly media member, only does a few hours of radio each week, and is sorrounded by hacks at NJ.com…
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But Lombardo is probably the only media member that saw things my way…aka realiTY. While the rest of the media was running around regurgitating each others bullshit saying dumb ish like “eagles just don’t have talent on defense” or “Nick FOles is going to get traded because he can’t run fast enough to ever play for chip”…or “Johnny Manziel aka Johnny Jackass” is Chip Kelly’s Dream QB… Blah blah… Matt Lombardo was one of the few non ex NFL player local media that had the forsight to understand what we were building, and what we had in place that just needed cultivating…. No one else in the media got it right.
The losses in the 2001 and 2008 NFC title games — Rams and Cards — I don’t put on Reid as much as the man who got him there . . . Jim Johnson.
Would the 2001 up-and-coming Eagles defeated the 2001 up-and-coming Pats? That’ve been a great game. But considering what the Pats to the Rams, I’m not so sure that’s a win.
The 2008 Ealges v. the 2008 Steelers? Eagles beat them in the regular season 15-6. Would have been a great “call ’em” SB.
In 2003, the Eagles lose to Carolina in the most miserable afternoon-evening of Eagles football — even worse than the 2004 SB. But that Eagles team was probably the weakest, most injury-riddled of any of Reid’s NFC title-game teams. The Birds beat Green Bay at Lambeau the week before because Favre was Favre. Maybe Reid’s best and most disappointing coaching job in a 2-week period.
So that leaves 2002. Tampa. And the AFC’s Raiders. Just the thought of that game is a dagger. And I don’t want to let Jim Johnson off the hook either . . . he’s the guy who put S Blaine Bishop in the line up over rookie Michael Lewis because, you know, it was a big game and Bishop had experience. How’d that work out?
what if we had just run more, and McNabb had scrambled here and there in the SB we did attend?
Most likely, if the Eagles held the lead in the late 4th, Brady and Belicheat would have had one of those miraculous, long game winning drives that they had had during their SB years. Drives where you would just scratch your head and tip your hat to Belicheat for simply having a great feel for the game and consistently calling the perfect play to beat the defense that was being called…
It’s still (too) early doors, but here’s a fun question for y’all:
Who would you rather face in the playoffs again: Green Bay at home or Seahawks away?!
I’d really like another shot at GB, especially away from Lambeau.
I will gladly face any team in the NFC at Lincoln Financial Field.
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Gladly face Greenbay at the Linc, Going to Lambeau is probably the worst,case scenario.
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if we do have to go to Lambeau, the Silver lining is that we had a 0.00000% chance of going to Lambeau and beating Rogers twice at home this year. That was NEVER going to happen… If we have to go to Lambeau ATleast we didmt blow our wad on a regular season win
I find it hard to muster the idea of gladly facing Rodgers anywhere.
can’t win a Super Bowl without knocking off some big dogs. If we can’t beat anyone at the Linc where we have won 10 in a row, we don’t deserve it anyway.
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This kind of post is why I’m a GEAGLE fan.
Me too. With Chip, you are always optimistic; even the impossible can happen with a Chip team.
While I want to agree with this thinking, our current winning streak at home must come to an end at one point.
So let’s hope this streak at the Linc won’t be broken in the playoffs this year.
Any one but GB anywhere. 85 bears in the North Pole but not GB.
While I’m usually an optimistic person when it comes to the Eagles, I don’t see any way for our defense to stop a top flight QB. It seems like the past 6/7 years, we’ve always been torched by the P.Manning/Rodgers/Brees/Brady, and at least one, and probably 2 of them, stand in our way.
Therefore, I do think that the only way we can win it all is for our QB to go all Flacco/Eli Manning in their SB-winning years, and just play out of his mind during the playoffs. I don’t trust Sanchez’ ability to do that, and I am therefore praying for a return of 2013-2014 Foles in the playoffs, along with our recently improved ground game.
We need to be able to win shootouts. Game-manager Mark Sanchez won’t be enough.
S-L-O-W Foles won’t be enough either.
We’ve seen Foles played behind a patched up OL with no running game this year.
I’d like to see him with the current OL and running game.
I have more faith in Nick Foles regaining last year’s form than in Mark Sanchez replicating the 1/2 games he had in the playoffs where the Jets made it to the AFCCG, when supported by an outstanding defense we don’t have.
Not sure the O Line has much to do with it. Foles changed somehow from 2013 to 2014. Became so hesitant in thinking and action. Remember, Chip wants SPEED. I am not a Foles hater, by the way. I just know what I see. Maybe the new QB coach? Which of us knows?
Foles will be back. Crushing fools with his amazing QB skillz
Yes, every QB would love to play in pristine situations — what team doesn’t regularly have OL injuries? Even peyton manning has to deal with. If he starts looking like Geno Smith with no o-line then we gotta re-assess.
Geno Smith? Hahahahaha. “Yes….Let your hate flow…”
By that logic, let’s reassess Shady, who struggled even more than Foles did behind these minor issues, and is a veteran to boot.
shady was struggling but suprising was putting up decent RB numbers (could have fooled me), he just doesn’t get into the end zone anymore. As for Foles’ numbers, look them up they are ugly (though with his recent performance comparing him to g. smith is probably a stretch.)
First four weeks of the year, Shady posted 2 games of sub-2.0 ypc. Didn’t break 85 yards in a game until the Giants, who pretty much completely (for reasons known only to them) ignored the run in the first half of that game. And he managed another sub-2.0 ypc game against Carolina, when the line was still coming together.
He currently is doing fairly well numbers-wise because he’s been feasting on poor rushing defenses with Johnson, Kelce, Mathis all being starters for the first time this year.
And yet, I can admit Shady’s a good RB *who changed his game and struggled behind a porous OL.* I just find it funny that people need to justify their hatred of Foles by using logic that they claim is entirely inapplicable to Shady. There’s a reason so many analysts identify “the trenches” as the place where most games are won or lost. Outside of unique talents, QBs and RBs need to have the OL at least hold their own to be successful. And Foles isn’t a unique talent. It’s arguable Shady is, but even he struggled mightily behind the atrocious OL play that occurred earlier in the season. Expecting Foles to overcome OL issues that Shady couldn’t seems to be exactly backward, IMO.
2010 we stopped Peyton Manning
This discussion seems to be about the Eagles offense against the Seattle defense. I would be far more concerned about the Seahawks offense. Have folks here not seen the Seattle games with Lynch dragging 7 or 8 defenders across the goalline? Or halfway down the field? Then there’s Wilson. Smart, has the arm and feet. Puts in the work. Came into the league at the same time as Luck, etc. They also lost a game or so when their O Line was hurting. Improving now.
Hawks would be better off throwing three jump balls every possession, see GB game. DBS have no ball skills.
Yeh, Lynch is a big boy but that’s why we have “big people” up front.
remember when demarco trucked our NT last year — I really hope that doesn’t happen. Or remember when eddie lacy ran over our whole secondary, that wasn’t fun either.
our back NT last year was like 280 ponds, this year he is 330 pound of pure sexyness
no comments on eddie lacy? Front 7 is great but beast mode does make men look like boys. I think he does something (tds) but not actually that much running.
Lacy ran wild once Rodgers had imposed his will and we focused more on the pass
Yeah but he didn’t get away with that shit last game.
Damien Square isn’t on the team anymore. Logan has been a wall this year, and Beau Allen might be even harder to move.
I’m in Seattle’s region so see quite a bit of their games. When Lynch is determined, he has dragged as many as 5 or 6 defenders along with him for 10-12 yards. He can also pass-catch. He is, in fact, the RB we sometimes wish McCoy could be.
I think we’re stout enough against the run these days, I don’t fear someone like Lynch making us look stupid like back during the wide 9/Asomugha days.
What the hell happened with Nnamdii anyway? Just brought into a bad situation or overrated in the first place?
Asking the wrong guy. I’d love for Tommy to do an examination of that but I fear having to re-live the 2012 season might drive him mad.
No, SteveH, you are THE RIGHT GUY!!!!!!!! Congratulations!
nah he married Kerry Washington, he’s doing well for himself.
Got old super fast
It’s possible that he lost a step, and then lost his confidence as well, but there was no linebacker or safety talent to speak of on that defense, and the scheme would have had them focused on stopping the non-existant run anyway.
Think the millions he took from the Eagles leaves him pretty confident.
He is also busy running his foundation.
http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Nnamdi+Asomugha+7th+Annual+Asomugha+Foundation+ZN7NOfGhgpil.jpg
I agree, I am more worried about Lynch then i was Murray. I dont think he is going to go off on us but i think he will be more effective then Murray and all other RBs we have faced this season. I am also very worried about Wilson not just running for a 1st down on 3rd but doing what he does very well and slip out of a sack to extend a play and hit a WR deep. Do i think we will win this game? Yes. Will we have some ugly moments? Yes. Barwin and Kendricks have to play a good game as QB spys and our Dline and LBs have to be very disciplined. Something in which i beleive we have shown we are capable of.
“slip out and hit a wr deep.” Kinda like Romo? huh? huh?
lol no, he is younger and more athletic and his back isnt super glued together.
More often, when Wilson slips out, he hits a RB or WR who stayed approximately 10 yds out, while the rest of the WRs have run flies, clearing things out for big RAC yardage. Of the several ‘Hawks games I’ve watched, Wilson hasn’t done any damage throwing deep or even intermediate deep. He’s done far more damage running with the ball, and even more with the short dunk passes after he’s scrambled for 5 or so seconds. And of course, Lynch is the best big game RB in the league.
Good insight. Although he might not hit the deep throws you only need 10 yards max to get a first down ussually. His scrambling around in the backfeild canbe very damaging, esspecially if its 3rd down and the D is trying to get off the feild. Good tackling and discipline are the keys to the game for the D.
Absolutely. I’m not saying it’s not effective. Just noting that while I’ve been watching (admittedly, not all of his games), the majority of his passing yardage came from that process: scrambling, getting outside to put pressure on the defenders in the short zone by threatening a run, then dunking over those defenders to a wide open player who leaked out approximately 10 yards away, who then turns and runs for a long time. Very hard to defend. However, it’s not been beating defenders deep or even deep intermediate. I’m not overly worried about that being the problem this week – I’m worried about the 10 yarders. And Lynch and Wilson running.
Their winning formula is not to outscore us. So no, I’m not concerned.
How can they win if they don’t outscore us?
Let me re-word for you. The Eagles rely on their offense. Their game plan is to outscore you. Seattle isn’t sitting there saying ‘ok, let’s score 40 points’ to beat the Eagles. Their game plan is not to score 30 points every week to win but hold the opponent to as little as possible.
Yup…think seattle on scored 30 like 3 times.. First game against Green Bay when big bad Arron Rogers was afraid to throw to the right side of the field, they scored 30 on pathetic Giants and they Scored 30 on the Raiders, yes, the same Raiders team that just lost 53-0 to the Rams lol….. It’s safe to say Seattle will be lucky to score 21’points against us…where as,we score 24 just by rolling out of bed sunday Morning…
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I’d bet that our Defense keeps up with the seattle defense this week, more than the Seattle offense can keep up with our Offense this week….
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Im smelling 27-31 Eagles, seattle scoring in the 16-23 range (depending on if they can get a meaningless backdoor touch down at the end to make it closer than it seems)
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Might sound Bold, but I think it’s been pretty clear this year, that The Eagles are a better home team than seattle is on the road….. I just dont see how the team that seattle has displayed on the road all year, is going to play a close neck and neck game with the team that we have shown to be at home all year….
.,,
We close off that stadium and that place has been LOUD all year. Seattles OL isnt as good as our OL for starters, and like dallas OL they are much better run blockers than pass bloclers…seattle is not a great road team, you put those average at best pass blockers on 3rd down with our Rabbid crowd going nuts making too much noise for the players to hear each other, and our pass rush becomes ferocious at the Linc… We had Romo and Eli both diving to the turf because they were seeing Ghosts by the 3rd Quarter….the quick athletic Cam Newton was on his back all game against us…
I don’t see the seattle OL being good enough pass blockers, to go into hostile loud environment and hold of the team THATS second in the NFL in sacks who has looked ferocious at home as of late…tiny Russell will find himself smothered by Cox
These 10 day weeks without football are ROUGH! WOOF!
ATleast we get to laugh hysterically at dallas tonight
When seattle watches the tapes of our last 4 games, they will see that Sproles is really just a key ST weapon for us, and we only use him sporadically on offense, throw like 3 passes at him and give him 2 carries each game… Basically the last 4 games show that Sproles is just a minor complimentary piece of our offense…. Yet when the seattle defense lines Up against us on Sunday, I expect to see the “Darren Sproles Offense”…
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When you think about it, We leaned on Sproles in September, early October when Nick and Shady were struggling to get it going, since then Sproles hasn’t really been part of our offense.. I have a feeling that’s all about to change and we see a drastic spike in Sproles offensive snaps and touches… Not only will Darren get a bunch of touches this week but he will also be on the field as a decoy often, motioning away from where the play is going so he can take defenders away from where the play is designed to go.
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All yeàr people have been wondering why chip hasnt used Sproles in this way, why he hasn’t been used that way….. Thinking chip has been saving The Darren Sproles part of the offense for crunch time, and that time starts now…. When you go back and look at all Sproles offensive snaps, we really haven’t out much Sproles on Film.. He ran some of our basic run plays, caught a couple screens and ran a crossing route or two way go option route… Other than that, we really haven’t shown many ways for how we can use Sproles…. I’d bet that’s all going to change and Darren becomes a major part of our offense in December thru the playoff run…. Probably going to be hard to prepare for what chip has up his sleeves for Darren because of how little we used him this year….
Yep..I could be wrong but Dallas game was the first time we saw McCoy and Sproles both in the backfield together and that was just one play.
It wasn’t the first time, but it has been a rare occurrence so far this year. Are you talking about the play when they motioned Sproles away from the play and handed it off to shady?
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All year shady and chip have been talking about how the defenses play us different when Sproles is in the game instead of shady, I think it’s a safe bet that we will see a lot more of Sproles on offense down the stretch, often paired with Shady…. When our media tried to ask chip why he wasn’t playing them together, he said because one can’t block for the other, and while THATS technically true, it’s a pretty bullshit excuse.. But what can we really expect? Chip isn’t going to say.. “We are saving that for later in the season to catch teams off guard” ?? Lol of course not, so he gave some bogus excuse about why they can’t function together, even tho there is a million things you can do with those two that don’t require one functioning as a lead blocker…. Heck it’s as simple as faking a hand off to shady running right, only to turn around and pitch it to Sproles going left…. Faking a run to the opposite direction, will most likely take a defender out of the play the same way you would if you blocked him
Yeah that’s the play. I thought we’d see more of that hope thats the case this sunday.
We have to see more of it…. Darren Sproles is like a wet dream for offensive mad men like Chip… I would assume if we were ever gonna break out that portion of the playbook it would be against the best defense we will face all year especially when we still have a lot to play for. Not only do we need the win, but beating Seattle also helps out Arizona.
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Really anxious to see how chip has us lining up and what new plays that we haven’t seen he whips out for his buddy Pete Carrol..
I may be delusional but I get the feeling that chip plans out how he intends to roll out wrinkles throughout a season, and has some good stuff in store coming up. The way he he sets up tendencies for weeks then brings out plays that break the tendency are just too well designed/work so beautifully to have not been planned.
Oh I totally agree… I said that last year.
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I think he has portions of his playbook already mapped out, so when opposing defenses catch up to his Phase A offense, he whips out Phase B which counters the defenses initial counter…when the league catches up to Phase B, he will whip out Phase C of his offense, countering the defenses adjustment…and so on and so on….
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Think he definitely has a rough copy mapped out of when we will install new wrinkles throughout the season…, most likely every 4 games, but that could change give n take a game depending on Important matchups like a division game…. For example, seattle is the beginning of the last 4 game stretch, so I would expect to see him whip out new wrinkles anyway this week…
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Chip plans everything out to the smallest detail, I absolutely think he also has a mapped out a rough timeline for playbook installation over the course of a season (most likely every 4 games)
coach is almost as important as a qb
;~D!
Coach is more important… Odds are you will need your coach to groom your QB…
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I think Jay Cutler is a better QB than Mark Sanchez…..Trestman has Cutler looking like a pile of dog crap, while Chip has Sanchez playing his best ball… I don’t like Cutler very much, but I can’t help but feel like if you gave chip kelly, a decent OL, Cutler, Forte,Alshon,Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, that bears team would be a top 5 offense in the NFL with the FLAWED Jay Cutler…. With Trestman, Cutler is about to get run out of Chicago…..Your Damn Skippy Coach is more important than even the QB……unless you are one of the lucky son of a bitch offensive Coordinators who “coach” Peyton Manning….if I owned the Broncos, I’d be like cut the crap, he is fired. and refuse to pay for an offensive coordinator when my team runs the “Peyton Manning Omaha offense”
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Does being Peyton’s Offensive Coordinator look good or bad on your resume when trying to become a HEADCoach?
can’t wait for plan Z
Wouldn’t that mean he is all out of tricks? we better have like 3 lombardis before we get to plan Z lol
I’ve been debating all week whether to sit Gio Bernard for Sproles in fantasy for this reason alone.
Oooh yeah that’s tough. When you look at the matchups for attacking the seattle defense in the passing game, getting Sproles matched up on a Linebacker has to be one of our best bets… Seahawks LB can run n cover, but no LB can really stick with Sproles all game so I’m assuming we will have to use Sproles this week…I don’t know that we can have a good enough offensive game without using Sproles this week Especially when we need to convert a 3rd and 7,.. Throwing at Sproles should be a big part of our offense this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we dust Ertz off for this weeks match up too…
cody Parkey is nursing a right groin injury. Does anyone know if he played thru the tweaked groin against Dallas, or if the injury came after the dallas game and this will be his first game trying to play thru it?
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I remember I played thru a pulled groin for Practicalky two years in high school, it’s a very annoying injury, I imagine it would be annoying to try and kick FGs, especially since im pretty sure he kicks with his right leg……. Anyone know if he has already proven that he can play thru it, or if it’s a new recent injury?
He was on the injury report last week before the Dallas game with the groin
Nice…thank you
Chip said it effected his kickoffs against Dallas.
I am about two months into my first groin strain. I play tennis recreationally. Doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to heal up.
Seriously, I had like a two year groin strain in high school
Can the Cowboys go 8-8 again? Come on bears do your part!
According the the sheep’s bladder that I consulted awhile back when the cowboys were 7-3 the indication was an 88% chance of finishing 8-8.
Fantastic! Question though, do you have to eat the bladder as haggis to be enlightened with the predictions?
I never considered the possibility of not eating the bladder… let me know how that works out!
Seeing as haggis is made using a sheep’s stomach as a baking dish, with bits of other organs mixed into the oats and carrots, you’ll have a full stomach yourself! Aah those thrifty Scots. (Me grammy was from Glasgow) ;~D
Tonight is the key… If they lose tonight, I bet they go 8-8
Someone call the Pope and ask him to heal Parkey’s groin. Can’t have our franchise kicker not healthy.
gotta get in the endzone more. He’s kicking probably 12-15 times a game. Donnie jones is probably taking Mark’s place in the chicken fingers line.
He warms up all game long I doubt kicking a few extra times during a game is really doing much.
True, and you still have to kick the extra point and kick off after TDs, unless you go for 2 every time. So realistically, getting into the end zone won’t change the number of kicks, just the distance of them.
Just saw this – love that CBS Mock Draft has the Eagles selecting at 32!
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft
I don’t know anything about college prospects, but I’m making an early prediction that the new regime for the NY Giants moves up to #1 or #2 and picks Mariota.
wow eagles beating the patriots in the superbowl would be pretty sick. we could all calm down finally and enjoy football next year instead of stressing out
Surely, you jest. We could win 10 Lombardis in a row and we will still stress, big time.
Lol-
ChipKelly again on why he wasn’t interested in the Florida job: “I don’t
think our pro offense would work at the college level.”— Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) December 4, 2014
Congrats to BRAMA Bull Barwin for winning defensive player of the month..
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Ravens r screwed!! Haloti Gnata suspended the rest of the season…PED’s
The more I think about it, we managed to get to 9-3 barely using Sproles in the offense. We needed Sproles to carry us in September, but once other parts of our offense started to click, we started to phase Sproles out of the offense, well actually, he got hurt and when he got healthy we never went back to using him as much as we were in September, pre Injury….I think we used Sproles so much in September out of necessity, Not because we wanted to.
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Trying to think back at what seattle will see when they break down our tape, made me get to thinking, that it’s December, crunch time of the NFL season, and we barely even scratched the surface with what Sproles can bring to our offense…I have a feeling we haven’t seen anything yet, so much Sproles firepower chip still has up his sleeve that he hasnt unveiled to the league yet..this can’t be by coincidence. Sneaky chip made it to crunch time of the NFL season having been able to keep so many of his “Sproles cards” close to his vest and now chip is about to start dropping Sproles Bombs left and right.,
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Have a feeling Sproles is Going to go from Like 6 touches a game, to like 15..
I hear ya, but do you think chip really would hold out an offensive weapon to be used later? wouldn’t that be a little crazy considering we have to try and win every game we play? I mean can you really assume you will be in the playoffs and hold something out? what if we didn’t or don’t make it? that would be a careless waste of a resource no?
I want to believe the same thing, that he is holding some stuff out for later, but I tend to think he wouldn’t do that because every game is important to win.
but that begs the question then, where has sproles been and what the heck happened to the breakout year for ertzy boy?
I know about the blocking, but what about last year? he wasn’t better at blocking but our run game was still killer.
and I think we can beat seattle. and we actually need to because what about next week dallas game? we can’t lose going into that one, because we have to win em all!
We really did need Celek to help out when the run game was struggling, but now that our OL is pretty healthy and in a groove I would assume we see a little more Ertz and a little less Celek
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As for Sproles, I don’t know how else to explain why one of our most dangerous weapons has been having stat lines like:
1 carry for 15 yards
3 receptions for 32 yard
….
Sproles can do a lot more then a stat line like that. it’s not like Defenses have made stopping Sproles the focal point of their defense, it’s not like we faced a bunch of teams with super linebackers fast enough to cover him…. Lack of production to me seeks self imposed.. I know one of our most recent wins, early in the game we gave Sproles a carry, he picked up 15 yards, and that was his first and last carry for the day… Why didn’t he get the ball? It’s not like the defense took him away and forced someone else to beat them… When an offensive genius calls a run and gains 15 yards,,I can’t explain why else you wouldn’t give him another carry all game…
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We,haven’t been getting much production out of Riley, but ATleast I can make sense of that, in other words, we have better weapons we can go to than Coop…. What sense can we make out of why Sproles and Ertz have been on the shelf collecting dust, when they are two of our biggest matchup problems for opposing teams? I don’t know how else to interpret it
Interesting contrast of styles this week. On average we snap the ball having only used up about 6 seconds off the playclock which is the fastest in the NFL. Seattle is our Polar opposite, taking about 30 seconds to snap the ball, which is slowest in the NFL….Seattles Defense is still the stout unit we saw win a Super Bowl last year, but it has lost a lot of its depth, so I believe them to be much more susceptible to succumbing to our Tempo than last years defense who threw waves of defensive lineman at teams…….. You can bet that they will take their sweet OL time to snap the ball and eat up time to keep our offense off the field and give their defense a rest.
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I went back and watched the Chargers game, because I figured that the Chargers like to play fast similar to us, so I wanted to see how a team that plays fast like chargers was able to beat seattle, but that game didn’t provide what I was looking for because Chargers played a weird game and ended up killing the Chargers in time of possession 43 minutes, to Seattles 17… That won’t help us because you know chip kelly won’t be winning too many time of possessions… But one thing I that I did take from that chargers win, was that ANTONIO Gates Carved that defense up for 3 TDs… Leading San Diego to a 30-21 home win. (And seattle didn’t have to travel cross country that week)…
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When you break down the tape of our last 4 games, not only does it seem like Sproles isnt big part of our offense, but these last 4 games could also lead a team to believe that Ertz is no big deal, since we haven’t really used him in weekd… Wondering if the two most underused weapons the last 4 weeks, are major focal points of this weeks gameplan(Sproles/Ertz)
I know in the Dallas game, and I think I remember in the Panthers game (if not others) Ertz was targeted in the RZ and in the end zone but was unable to make the catch.
Yeah but our entire team has struggled in the red zone…
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Think chip needs to stop putting his foot on the break once we get into the redzone.. What I mean is we usually use our quick tempo to march up amd down the field and as soon as we get to the redzone, like most teams we substitute and get some sort of redzone package in the game, which in turn also allows the defense to sub in their goal line defense and fresher bodies…
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Against the Seahawks, when we march all the way down field not allowing them to sub and we get to the ENDZONE, dont slow down to substitute our redzone package into the game, keep the same exact players you got down field with, hurry up, get to the line and keep playing fast when we get to the ENDZONE.. Odds,are, the defense will burn a time out to get some fresh players in after we tempo our way all the way up and down the field, but so what, if they want to sub, force them to pay with a time out, if not, don’t ever slow down to Sub the redzone package in, just keep playing fast with the personel that got you down there all the way into the endzone or until they blow a timeout
Yeah, it’s sort of like building up a big lead and then “switching” to prevent on D. Go with what got you there especially if it’s working.
Another,major advantage for us is that we snap the ball so quickly into the play clock that our QB gets to hear chips thoughts on the final defense our QB is going to end Up facing when he snaps the ball….. Where as when you play a team like the seahawks who don’t snap the ball on average until 30 seconds are off the play clock, by the time Wilson snaps the ball, Pete Carrol stopped talking to him 15 seconds prior, meaning that the defense could have audibles twice into something completely different after Carroll last could talk to wilson tnru the headset……because we snap the ball so fast our QB actually gets to hear what chip sees against the Very defense that the QB will face….. That’s a pretty significant advantage for Sanchez that Wilson doesnt get to enjoy because of their slow methodical, grind it out and kill the clock style
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I wouldn’t be surprised if coaches start crying about this advantage, trying to get the rule changed,,, just another way chip is going to end up revolutionizing pro football…let’s see how much longer we are able to enjoy this advantage a good portion of the time…
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Also find it interesting that FOles doesn’t like Chip in his ear right up to the very snap, where as mark wants every bit of info chip sees rigjt up to the second he snaps the ball… Interesting contrast between the two QBs…
Go Bears.
If the Eagles win Sunday, I’m picking them as super bowl champs.
anyone watching cowboy/bears?
here
cool! just making sure i’m not talking to myself
present
not sure why the cowboys give up the run game on third and short, murray can easily pick up 2 yards.
forte all day.
need cutler to be un-cutler-like tonight.
Bears are a dumpster fire
the kicker situation ended up funny.
I wanted brandon mcmanus/josh brown (whoever lost the battle). giants traded mcmanus to broncos. i figured ok, we’ll stick with this parkey kid until the broncos cut either mcmanus or prater. parkey ends up being awesome. broncos cut mcmanus for playing poorly. we definitely ended up with the best of all options.
And where is Prater now? Thought Lions signed him, but not sure.
think so, he’s playing better now after starting slow. 14/18 this season
how the helll is that not roughing the kicker
Go Bears.
Trestman needs to get fired. The Cowboys are over-rated.
Bears haz no pass rush.
bears suck
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