Crazy Tuesday
Posted: March 4th, 2015 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 262 Comments »Wow. I mean, double wow.
Cary Williams. Cut.
Trent Cole. Cut.
Shady McCoy. Traded.
That’s the craziest Tuesday I can remember in a long time.
I thought the safe thing to do was to get Williams to restructure. He is an acceptable CB. You just don’t want him as your top guy. The Eagles decided to cut him. I have to admit part of me really wanted that. I don’t like phony tough guys. And Williams is certainly that. He would tackle players on an inconsistent basis. But he was All-Pro when it came to shoving WRs after the catch. I can’t stand players who talk about being physical and tough and then do that kind of crap. Be physical from snap to whistle. Shoving guys afterward just draws penalties. That doesn’t intimidate anyone.
Losing Cole hurts. It was the right thing to do, but that doesn’t make it any less painful. I own one Eagles jersey…#58. I’ve loved Trent since his days at the University of Cincinnati. He was one of my favorite players in the 2005 draft. I was ecstatic when the Eagles got him. Cole turned out to be a far better player than I ever imagined.
Cole is a terrific run defender, but isn’t a stud pass rusher any longer. He is effective when used creatively, but you can’t expect him to consistently beat good LTs anymore. He can still be an effective starting RDE or ROLB, but he is a descending player. That’s no knock on Cole. Father Time catches everyone.
I’ll write a lengthy post on Trent in the future. He’s one of my all-time favorite guys. He deserves a long post when things are quiet and we can really focus on him.
I already covered the Shady trade with a quick post. Rather than obsessing on whether that was a good move, I’m more fascinated by what it means.
* The Eagles freed up a ton of cap space and now have between $40M and $50M to spend. They can do just about anything they want in free agency. We know they’ll make DB moves. They could also go for a stud RG. They could make a run at Ndamukong Suh. The question is now…what does Chip want?
* They solidified the middle of the defense. Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso are a pair of young, athletic ILBs that can both make plays. They can defend the run and the pass. You have backups like Najee Goode and Brad Jones to offer depth.
* It hasn’t happened yet, but I can’t imagine DeMeco Ryans stays. He’s older, expensive and coming off an injury. Ryans is a great leader, but you can’t keep him just because of that. He has to have a role on the field. Alonso is an ILB, not an OLB. That means there is no job for Ryans…unless the Eagles deal Kendricks. At this point I guess you can’t rule anything out, but I wouldn’t say that idea would make a lot of sense to me. I want Kendricks and Alonso as the heart of my 3-4 defense. I do wonder why there is no news with Ryans. Maybe the Eagles have a plan for him that I am missing.
* There is a big hole at RB. How do the Eagles fill that? DeMarco Murray is the kind of RB I think Kelly would love, but that would only make sense if the price is right. If Murray isn’t getting mega-offers, maybe the Eagles talk to him. Is there any chance Adrian Peterson gets cut? That would be fantasy material. There are a slew of good backs in the draft. Todd Gurley is the most interesting. He’s coming off a torn ACL, but has dominant potential when healthy. There was a report today that the Eagles are interested in free agent Mark Ingram. That could make some sense.
The one part of all this that I really love is Chip being Chip. Time may tell us that his ideas on how to build a team are awful and he destroyed a good roster. Or he might build the group that finally brings the Lombardi to Philly. If you want conventional, you hire conventional.
Jeff Lurie brought Chip in here to work his magic. It can’t all be easy or everyone would do it.
Chip seems to be ready to spend a lot of money in free agency to plug holes and find the younger starters he wants. That will give him the freedom to be as aggressive as possible in going after Marcus Mariota. I am fine with that. A good coach has to have his QB. It’s great when you can find that guy easily, but that doesn’t always happen. It seems like Kelly wants to be able to do as much as possible to get his guy. Still might not happen, but he’ll be ready to try.
We really can’t evaluate the situation until after it happens, and really until after it plays out. If you judge moves at the time they’re made, they can seem very different than after the fact. We all praise Pete Carroll and Seattle relentlessly, but some of the moves seemed less brilliant at the time. Some were flat out bad.
* Seattle traded for a RB who was averaging 41 yards per game and couldn’t stay out of legal trouble. Carroll had faced Marshawn Lynch in the USC vs Cal days and believed he could bring out the best in him.
* Seattle traded a 3rd round pick for Charlie Whitehurst and then gave him a good contract. He was expected to be the starting QB in 2010.
* They signed WR Sidney Rice to a big deal, despite the fact he was coming off a serious hip injury.
* Prior to 2011, Seattle signed Tavaris Jackson to a contract and gave him the starting QB job.
* In 2012 the Seahawks spent a 3rd round pick on a 5-11 QB. He was named the starter in the summer prior to the season.
* The starting DEs for 2011 and 2012 were 240 pounds and 330 pounds.
* 5th round CB with limited experience as a DB started as a rookie.
* In 2012 Seattle spent a late round pick on an athletic DT…and moved him to RG.
* Prior to 2013, Seattle traded a 1st, 3rd and 7th round picks for WR/RS Percy Harvin. Then they gave him a huge contract, despite the fact Harvin had medical and character concerns.
* Seattle had a pair of UDFA receivers starting for most of the 2014 season.
You cannot make safe, conventional moves if you want to build a great team. You have to take some chances. Some will work, some won’t. If enough of the chances turn out great, you can have a special team.
I’m looking forward to seeing what Kelly does. He has a talented core of players. He has a full set of draft picks and an extra 4th. He has tons of cap room. Kelly can fix the defense or add playmakers to the offense. He can make a run at elite players or focus on plugging as many holes as possible.
March should be fun.
_
Who would be the smartest guy in the room if both Hinkie and Chip were in there.
Is Amaro there?
Whoever got them in the room at the same time?
Hinkie’s an idiot. Let’s just keep trading for the future so it looks like I have a plan and I can keep my job as long as possible.
Oh man, there are so many things wrong with that paragraph.
We’re extremely fortunate to have Chip + Hinkie in Philadelphia.
Yeah, because purposely trying to lose is a genius and totally ethical plan.
Yeah because losing is Hinkle’s true endgame. There is no part of it suggesting that losing leads to drafting high and more shots to aquire top talent…
Beats perpetual 8 seed purgatory.
The games the last 2 years have been 10000% more entertaining than anything post Iverson.
Where does ethics factor into it ?
So you think if Hinkle were to lose his current job for whatever reason he would struggle finding good employment? Really? Otherwise, your assertion reaks of you having bought a cheap WIP negadelphia conspiracy theory.
News flash. The nba is broken. He’s taking advantage of it.
Honestly Hinkie
Different kinds of smarts. Seriously. There are multiple intelligences.
I think they are waiting for the official start of business season, Just in case something falls through on the trade, before cutting Ryans
Makes sense but BGN is reporting rumors we may keep him. Trading Kendricks, depending on the return, would be the first move I couldn’t really get behind.
I don’t see why he would be kept, and Kendricks isn’t going to be traded. That idea shouldn’t be entertained.
If there was any doubt that Chip was going all out to try and get Mariota, and I thought it was an absurd notion at first, all that doubt, for me at least, is erased now. We’re going to be huge players in FA with this much money to spend. No other reason to clear out this much space right before FA starts.
If we do end up signing McCourty and Maxwell and trade up for Mariota and resign our major playmakers, ie Cox, Kendricks and Maclin, basically every position but RB (deepest draft in years for RBs), OLB (Will be Graham, Worilds, MSII, McPhee or we trade Curry for Dion), LG and the other CB spot are completely set. Every other starter besides Peters and Mathis would be under 27. That’d be an awesome, talented core of young players to build a contender with, and we’d be able to weather the storm of losing a bunch of draft picks since there’d be so few holes. Depth would be my one main concern as we’d be thin at pretty much every position.
But, I can’t help but think that something big is brewing and it’s not us taking a semi decent CB with upside at pick 20 and trotting Foles back out there to run the read option with Polk and lob passes at Cooper and Huff.
Injuries and age will eat holes in that roster within a year or two, and there will be no talented young depth developing behind the starters. There’s a reason they say NFL stands for “not for long”.
Honestly, I think it all depends on what Chip gives up to draft Mariota. Let’s say Nick Foles, Vinny Curry and our entire set of 2015 draft picks is what it takes. Vinny was going to be gone anyways. And how many quality players would you realistically get with our 2nd, 3rd, two 4ths, 5th, 6th and 7th picks. 2 maybe 3. Sometimes you get none. A great draft you might get 4, but 3 usually is the mark of a really good draft. So is missing out on 3 quality players insurmountable over the long haul if you supplement by going a little heavier in free agency?
What if it takes two firsts, two seconds and Nick Foles to get one of the top two picks. Net loss is one first rounder and two seconds that could be used for future roster building. Again, were talking 3 likely good players, but with draft batting averages as they are we’d probably miss on at least one of those picks. So two starters, maybe one impact pro-bowl type player for a potential franchise QB. Is that really that insurmountable? Add a third next year and one of our 4th rounders this year to that. Still were talking about 4 or 5 players of value, likely one stud, one starter and 2 depth rotational guys. Even if we hit on all those picks you’re looking at 5 good players on a team that won’t even have that many starting spots open after spending a good amount of this cap money on free agents. So again, I’m just not sure it’s as dire to our depth as it might seem.
If Chip sends off 3 first rounders, 3 seconds, a 3rd and two 4ths or some equally ridiculous trade, then yea…we’re totally screwed.
I think we’re looking at a Julio Jones or RGIII type package at least. Remember, we’d be moving up from #20 to the top of the draft and the other team will have all the leverage. One of those players has panned out and the other hasn’t but both moves severely compromised the ability of the respective franchises to build quality rosters.
That Tuesday game against the Vikings was pretty crazy…
Great moments in coaching / motivation right there. That was one of the most gutless games I remember the team playing.
Joe Webb sure showed you what a mobile QB can do!
right?
I agree this is chip being chip. Here’s hoping we see some two point conversion attempts this year!
I think we’ll see that once the offense becomes more consistent.
I think getting rid of Kendricks would be nuts. He was finally playing lights out, got hurt, still pretty good the rest of the way. Potential through the roof, excellent blitzer, hits harder than his size, can cover a lot of field.
THAT is one move I could not get on board with. He’s an ILB who can let you do all kinds of creative things in terms of pass rush, because he’s so good at that.
think he would only go in a trade with tampa bay
Agreed…I hope DeMeco is being kept as insurance, depth and leadership at a significantly discounted price, not as our plan to put Kiko next to a 31 year old with two ruptured Achilles tendons that we’ll just have to replace the following year anyways.
who is QBing back there? Kiko got traded so Rex could bring a 31yo ILB to QB his defense. Meco plays the same role for us.
At some point Kendricks has to mature and take over the roll of QB, he’s entering year 4 now. It’s time. You don’t have to have someone over 30 to call out the defensive alignments.
Plus I’d be very cautious about having a rehabbing 31 year old coming off his second achilles tendon tear playing next to a rehabbing guy coming off his second ACL tear with no real depth behind them. Seems super risky to me.
It’ll be Kiko. That’s what he did at Oregon, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Chip gives his Duck the job outright.
What if the ILB tandem winds up being Brooks Reed and Kiko Alonzo, but we don’t cut Meco until after Kendricks is traded as part of a Mariota deal?
I don’t know if that’ll happen or not, but that is one possibility.
As interesting as it sounds to trade up for Mariota, how does Chip do this to get us in the top 5 picks from 20?
Does anyone think it’s possible for Mariotta to purposely flub his pro day in the hopes of dropping down to where the Eagles could pick him? At this point that’s the scenario which makes the most sense to me for how we get him.
Would you really want a player who would take a dive that way? Who knows when he might do it again? A dishonest win is no win at all.
Depends how badly he wants to play for Chip. I don’t equate that with “throwing a game”, it’s a personal decision that will cost him some money because he wouldn’t go as high.
Tell the 2004 Patriots that 🙁
Yeah, that is a real bum move. Sir Drops-a-lot Benjamin claimed to have done that do purposely land on that crap factory with Scam Newton in Carolina.
Doubt it because there is still no guarantee the Eagles could pick him, and it could cost him alot of money. If he gets to 6, Birds would be able to get him.
What’s he going to do, run a 4.9 and pretend like the combine didn’t happen? He’s already performed well in a similar, more important setting. Senselessly flubbing his meaningless pro day would be pointless.
So, after we buy Maxwell, McCourty, Worilds, and Maclin…3 firsts, 2 seconds, a third, and Nick Foles for Mariota…
Just like we all wanted to see D-Jax and Maclin together in this offense, we’d love to see Kendricks and Kiko together at ILB. Unfortunately, I have a feeling we’re not going to get to see that. I think Kendricks is going to be trade bait, possibly included to move up for Mariota.
You might be right…but god I hope not.
think we are getting ahead of ourselves… our default negadelphian mode
Highly doubt that.
I don’t see Kendricks going anywhere.
I can see this happen: Front pages in Philly sports news should read soon….:
****CHAMPIONSHIP!!!****
Eagles sign Maxwell, McCourty, and Hardy
(also sign House, Clay, and Orakpo)
Eagles HC now can focus on QB Mariotta
after stockpiling defense
Dream team part 2!!!!
I’d like to think Hardy is a little too girlfriend-beaty to even be considered by Chip.
I do too. Just feel that they’re going to get someone that’s going to make news because he may end up being cheap.
Keep Hardy out of town. He’s a vile piece of human garbage.
I sure hope so, but he didn’t get convicted of anything out of that situation and may come cheap to get back in the league. #justahunch
“The Eagles freed up a ton of cap space and now have between $40M and $50M to spend.”
I worked out the numbers in the previous thread. The Eagles shouldn’t spend much more than $32mil this year in FA if they want to keep their cap advantage. In fact, if they spend every last dime of our cap surplus, we’ll be $16mil OVER the cap next year. That’s some George W. Bush level budgeting mistakes. Basically, if Chip sends more $32mil, he’s going to sink this ship very quickly.
*numbers assume Demeco isn’t cut, and I didn’t account for any expiring contracts for next year.
I’d say more like the 7 trillion dollar man Obama (more than every President before him combined), but let’s try to leave politics out of football, shall we?
Just talking about how we went from budget surplus under Clinton to a large deficit under Bush. The politics of the situation aren’t really relevant.
Wait, did you just make an statement on politics, and then patronize someone for making a non-political statement?
Are you assuming that each players cap hit would stay the same year to year to come up with us being $16 mil over? Essentially, we have a high cap ceiling due to roll over money so if we spend to a level that’s $16mil higher than the standard cap ceiling we’ll then be $16mil over next year when the ceiling comes back down without rolling more money forward?
If so, you’re probably not thinking about the cap the way a cap guru like Howie would. If that were the case, rolling money forward would provide no real advantage because you’d have to keep rolling forward every year to be able to spend any additional money that the roll forward would allow you.
In reality, what the Eagles can do is structure a bunch of FA deals so that the majority of the money is guaranteed upfront, but not in the form of a signing bonus where the cap hit is prorated over the length of the deal. Instead the cap hit would be really heavy in this year and then drop precipitously next year. Players happy to get the money up front, we use all the cap space this year. We have nothing to roll forward, but in years 2 through say 5 of the deals the cap hits are really low and with little dead money if the player flames out and we need to cut him.
I’m not accounting for next year’s expiring contracts or ups and downs in them, nor do I plan to fill out the spread sheet to make all that work completely accurately, so these numbers are only a little accurate for this year.
But as far as the cap goes, you’re not understanding that the rollover gives teams a HUGE advantage. You can maintain the rolled over advantage by spending less than 50% of the rollover. (rollover = team’s adjusted cap – salary floor) I worked it out in the other thread, and that 50% is something like $16mil for the Eagles for this year. We still need to spend another 16mil to get to salary FLOOR. If that’s not enough to buy their players this season, then they’re doing it wrong.
Front loading the contracts would work, sure, but you’re depleting the surplus unnecessarily. Say you find yourself one or two players from contention in a few years, but you spent all that money in a rebuilding year instead? It can be that rainy day fund, too.
I completely understand what you’re saying. This guy on a Raiders blog (of all places) had a great review of the roll over process back in 2012 when the new CBA was signed, http://raidersblog.com/2012/12/26/implications-of-salary-cap-rollover/, which I think speaks to exactly what you’re talking about.
I’m not expecting you or anyone else to get out the actuary tables and do all the minute financial planning to come up with exact numbers, but I still think there’s a lot of ways to spend more than you estimated we could and still keep our financial advantage when it comes to cap managment. The fact that the salary cap is continuing to rise each year is one area that really effects things and might be something that is not being considered.
If for instance the cap were to rise another $10million dollars next year, and the cumulative cap hits for our free agent spree drops $10million in 2016 due to the way the contracts are front loaded, we might not be able to sign anyone we want in free agency that year, but we could possibly have a lot more money available to roll forward into 2017 and be right back on track.
Just not sure that the amount we can spend is so rigid or that the effect of spending into some of our roll over money is as damaging as some people may think. Howie’s damn good at working the cap. Regardless of what Chip does this year in FA, I have every bit of faith that the Eagles will never find themselves in a situation where they can’t get out of it and maintain financial flexibility. I don’t ever see us being in a situation where we can’t sign someone that we really want to keep or can’t get someone that we really want if the price is fair.
Sure, you’re right that it doesn’t have to be so rigid. I still think that’s the magic number for this year, though, so I reserve the right to I-told-you-so even though you’re not saying I’m wrong.
I think the fact that the cap keeps rising is all the more reason to continue to raise the surplus. When the cap rises, contracts tend to rise proportionally to them. So $16mil on a $142mil cap is not worth what it would be when it later goes up to $150mil. Either way, an extra $16mil a year is still an extra 2-3 top FAs that the Cowboys and Saints won’t have until they figure it out themselves. And by the time they do, they won’t be able to save as much as we currently do.
That doesn’t sound right…cap isn’t going to stay the same, we have contracts falling off, what did you base that on?
Also, leave the politics out. Good god we get enough of it in the rest of our lives, doesn’t need to show up here as well.
I’m aware that contracts falling off, or changing cap hits makes things a bit more complicated, but again, I don’t plan to fill out a spread sheet to make that work (Give me a call, Howie, and I’ll do it for money, though)
If the cap goes up to 150mil, or 200mil next year, our rollover amount stays the same. Ideally, the front office should want to spend up to the salary floor, and then 50% of whatever number is left. They can increase that amount ever year by spending less than 50%, or decrease it by spending more.
And yes, I imagine someone like Roseman knows all the ins and outs of how to make that work for multiyear contracts. I’m just laying it for the folks on the radio that think that if you have $10, you should spend all $10. It’s more complicated that since the last CBA.
They need to save money to resign Cox, Kendricks, maybe Boykin and Foles.
If you wake up Friday and Demeco is an Eagle, you know he goes no where…
People are nuts if they think Chip didnt call Meco the minute the kiko trade Leaked. Too much respectd for the man and chip knew everyone would speculate its the end of Meco since the shady trade.. so either Chip called meco yesterdat and told him not to listen to simple medias noise assuring him he goes no where, or he had the respect to tell Meco yesterdat that we are moving on and he should change his plans for his rehab. In which case that wont be kept secret for long and tomorrow we will hear Meco is being waived… But I doubt he is going anywhere.. he will be on our bench this year, the only real question is at what price,.
;..
good news.im almost certain Mac stays, just waiting on a few things til im really certain…
Cole visiting the niners
Read 49ers were in mix, haven’t seen anything about him visiting them
Kiko is an ILB, but apparently he was going to be used as a OLB in Buffalo this year. I wonder if we could use a Alonso-Kendricks-Ryans-Barwin LB corps until either Smith is up to speed or another OLB can be drafted. Haven’t seen that speculated on why Ryans is still around. If this is the case, he’ll be cut after we sign an OLB in FA, or he’ll be restructured if we don’t.
Nah Kiko is a monster inside. Kiko and Meco?
I’m trying to rationalize the situation without talking about trading Kendricks. I know that’s the popular subject at the moment, but I’m just not seeing it.
I hear ya…but I don’t think Kiko matches the measurables Kelly wants at OLB. He’s 6’3″ which is pretty good height, but 237 pounds…no way. Chip likes his OLB to do three things, rush the QB (often this means going up against 320 pound left tackles something, Kiko’s never done and would probably have a hard time with), set the edge in the run game (why take such an instinctive MLB tackling machine and make him the guy that sumo wrestles left tackles to funnel the runner into other LBs…just don’t see that as battle that Kiko is going to win more often than not) and third most important … cover (yea he can do that)
Kiko/Kendricks are our ILB, Meco moves to the bench for depth for atleast this year… not sure what happens to meco after next year
I so hope you’re right. That would be my ideal scenario. I’d be thrilled. Like you I love watching a punishing, suffocating defense, even more than an electric offense. I love the pure primal feeling of just demoralizing your opponent with a nasty defense. Plus I think it’s what wins championships. The though of Kiko and Kendricks roaming free behind a young basdass dline for the next 6-7 years has me salivating right now.
Beautiful post.,,it’s like poetry for a defensive maniac like me….
6.9 Million is a bit much to pay an backup linebacker. ‘Meco hits the bricks as soon as the trade becomes official.
He could restructure.
Well yea…’Meco only comes back if were assuming he takes a massive pay cut. He’s got no leverage. No one will sign him to anything close to that while he’s rehabbing a second achilles tear and theres no guarantee he can even play anymore. It’s either restructure, stay here and continue to rehab with people that know your condition and have been working with you all off season. Or, go rehab by yourself on your own dime and hope that some team throws you a bone after a LB goes down in camp or the preseason.
They would have to give him an injury settlement if cut while injured that would pay for his rehab.
Would that count against the cap?
Unclear on that, but I can’t imagine it would be more than a few hundred thousand. I think the hold up probably does have to do with the fact that Meco is injured. If we need that last $7 million for our shopping spree we can cut him next week and it immediately goes through, so this may just be about medical/insurance stuff. You can hold him until you have to sign your rookies and then just use that money to do so.
That’s the key point on Meco, it doesn’t behoove the Eagles to cut him until they’re done making draft moves.
I didn’t say he gets paid 6mil did I? Meco stays, just watch.,. Not that I really care, I got the bad ass Kiko alonso, the NFL chick Norris, don’t mind being wrong and seeing us lose Meco now, I just struggle to see it as realistically happening
http://assets.diylol.com/hfs/8ca/bdb/51b/resized/john-wayne-meme-generator-chuck-norris-never-heard-of-her-c42569.jpg
4-3 weakside linebacker is your second ILB in a 3-4.
43 OLB is a 34 ILB. Both are off the ball players.
How about Barwin-Reed-Alonzo-Sheard?
wont be surprised if we get ready to move on from Thornton, the market opens next week and Halti Ngata heads up I95 talk to his fellow oregon alum about the Duck reunion brewing in Philly for his first free agent Visit…
…
Brandon Graham
Maclin
Haloti Ngata
Searcy
Davon House
Virgil Green
hha brandon graham.
yup B dot Grizzle..
I don’t know what will happen in the fall, but right now, this hurts and it really sucks to be an Eagles fan.
We don’t cheer a system; we cheer players.
Whatever issues there were with DJax, they didn’t exist with 25.
I can’t imagine the Oregon double standard makes for a healthy locker room.
we’ll cheer for wins, agree it sucks to have some of my favorite players gone, but that’s TBE unless you’re a QB.
Following players is fun, but I cheer for the laundry.
You don’t cheer the names on the back of the jerseys, you cheer any player wearing the jersey
confused…what are you hurt about? that you lost a 12mil a year RB when the cowboys paid 1.7mil for the leading rusher in the NFL last year. On top of the pay raise Shady production dropped 33% LAST YEAR, and he has the most carries any RB has had the past two years.
The eagles are paying Sproles to use him on 3rd down, so you would essential be sad about losing a 12mil running back who only plays on 1st and 2nd down…
..
not only did we clear that cap space, we got one of the future top LB in the game… Getting Kiko is like Having our Bobby Wagner to pair with Kendricks… secondary is awesome, but did you notice how the seattle D struggled when Wagne was hurt, and how it got back to elite status as soon as wagner came back?
..
we got a top young LB who will count less then 1 mil against the cap for the next 3 years and who can then be here leading our Defense for another 4 years…and we founbd someone dumb enough to eat the 12mil contract of a RB who would only be a 2 down back for us next year…… if the leading rusher in the NFL last year made 1.7milion, Id like to think the offensive Genius doeSNT NEED to spend 20mil to be able to run the ball…. IMO shady had to take a straight up paycut to like 6mil, 7 at the absolute most to have a shot at staying… probably shouldnt have gone on the radio and publically announce that he would NOT take a pay cut…shady doesnt want to win, he wants to get his and count as an absurd amount against our cap while coming up small every time he made the playoffs…
.,.
good player, but he wants to be paid way too much. we would have cut him for nothing if it came down to it, so im thrilled to have such a young stud in Kiko
Let’s not forget some people root for players, i can understand that it’s part of being a fan. But undoubtedly it’s the right thing for the franchise. All year we bitched about McCoy’s running style, not hitting the hole, not breaking tackles or running through contact, he lost goal line carries, lost 3rd down carries, lost pass attempts it was clear what was going to happen.
I get it, it’s not like I haven’t been rooting on shady like a madman these past 5 years like everyone else, tough decisions will need to be made, as long as we end up on the right side of the decision or trade, I can’t be mad. buffalo got the better player today I guess, but we got the better end of the trade. Buffalo didn’t even have to trade for shady, they could have just waited til we cut him and signed him for like 6mil, but he wouldnt sign with them so u atleast have to understand what buffalo was thinking, have to trade for him and honor his crazy contract to get a player like shady in buffalo
Kiko could be the Shady of ILBs. He could def. be top 5 in the league. I really liked him coming out and after 2013.
Absolutely. Dude had like 150 tackles. When was the lasts time an eagle had more then 90? Kiko is a beast and I see him absolutely being up there with young studs like Wagner and Lavonte David. Kiko and Kendricks will be racing each other to get to hit the ball character. Not to mention both are real good in coverage, our Nickel package should be really good
I cheer for players too, and really enjoy liking the players on my team. But, I cheer the most for wins. And, I think this move will ultimately make us a better team. Plus, I think a lot of people are going to really enjoy rooting for Kiko. I know a lot of Buffalo fans (sad group for sure), but man are they devastated to lose Kiko. Even after just one year that fan base was in love with him.
Anyone else simultaneously happy and annoyed with how much info is leaking out?
The trade leak likely came from Buffalo’s side, considering they reportedly told both Alonso and CJ Spiller. Once the team tells a player he is cut, the news is going to be leaked. Whether it comes from the player or is intentially leaked through the Eagles doesn’t matter. None of the other reports are concrete.
At this point, I’m gonna be really disappointed if Nick freaking Foles is still our QB next year.
I hope it happens Monday I can’t take this. Not getting work done.
I hope he is, I still believe in him
I’d go either way, if we land some studs (OL, WR, RB) he could be ok. That said you might as well embrace Mariota.
Phony tough guy is the perfect assessment of Cary Williams. He’s the NFL equivalent to Kevin Garnett, and it annoys the piss out of me.
Do recent events make anyone think that Howie kept Chip from getting Byrd? Are there any other good ducks around the league?
Lagarette Blount
Haloti Ngata
Ed Dickson
Kyle Long
Geoff Schwartz
Walter Thurmond III
Max Unger
Tj Ward
So no, I think Byrd got a stupid contract based on risk factors, not Howie kept Chip from getting him.
Any thought on Ngata as a FA, think we take a look? Kyle long could get out of STL, that would be interesting as well. I can’t tell 100% who we’ll pay this offseason, so many holes.
Do we try to draft the CB from Oregon — the one that’s injured?
Long plays for Chicago. Speaking of him, there are rumors that the Bears will cut Cutler before his salary becomes guaranteed. They may need a QB. Foles for Long and a 2nd?
That’d be interesting
I’d be down. More ammo to trade up with.
You think Foles is worth a cheap 26 year old 2 time pro bowler, and a second round pick?
Answer: yes.
Considering we traded Kolb for a 2nd round pick and an at least one time Pro Bowl CB(a lot more valued than guard), I think it’s the established fair value.
Well the Cowboys got 40 picks for Herschel Walker. The Eagles got 1 player for Shady.
See I looked at the past and found a valuation that I liked, so therefore that’s what a player is worth.
The point is: It’s a plausible trade. It’s not like Foles for 2 first rounders and a 2nd. Perhaps a 4th is a bit more realistic.
If you were trading for Long it would take a first rounder and something else, either a rotational player or a second/third round pick.
So you’re saying Nick = 1st, and 2 2nds.
I say bullshit.
No, I’m saying Nick MIGHT be worth Long and a 4th based on previous deals for qbs as pointed out above. I don’t, however, think Nick is worth Long and a 2nd. Of course, I don’t believe this would ever happen so the point is null in the first place.
You overrate Long.
It’s not just the Kolb trade. Eagles got a 2nd and a 4th for a clearly on his last legs McNabb. The 49ers got two seconds for Alex Smith. A.J. fricking Feeley got a future 2nd in return. If a young QB that has flashed talent is on the market, you should expect significant value in return.
Alex Smith is the only one to occur under the new CBA. He was also a hell of alot more proven than Foles and on a pretty cheap contract for a decent amount of time.
Would you trade Lane Johnson and a second round pick for RG3?
Kyle Long isn’t in Lane Johnson’s stratosphere.
How so? Long is one of the top guards in football. Lane while he’s played well has been up and down. They are far more comparable than you would like to admit.
Yea I think people seriously underestimate Foles value in a trade. Matt Cassel was traded for the 34th overall pick. Charlie Whitehurst was traded for a 3rd round pick and moving up 20 spots in the second round. Kevin Kolb was apparently worth a high second rounder and a young former first round CB. AJ Feeley was worth a second rounder. A retired Carson Palmer got a first rounder and a second rounder that had an excalater to become a first round pick if they made a championship game. Jay Cutler got the Broncos a decent starting QB, 2 first rounders and a third rounder. Why is it that so many of the same people that think Foles is so worth holding onto as a starting QB don’t think he’s worth much of anything in a trade.
Foles got injured, I would agree with you if we were trading him after 2013, we’d probably get some very good offers, but his value has understandably decreased. Yes even less than Kolb and Feely. Those guys were not injured, and coming off good seasons.
We got a top young LB who will become a monster in the middle who we owe like less than 3mil over the next 3 years, forming a great base and nickel package duo with kendricks for a 12mil RB which is just an insane price to pay for a RB, especially one who’s production dropped 33% Last year. Of course or OL was in shambles last year, but it’s still alarming after we gave him the most carries in the NFL the past two years..,
..
I agree with some other on this board that say he will jave a big year for the bills, get run into the ground and start his decline after this year. Chip is obsessed with offense, desean got cut, obviously his production wasnt good enough to make chip want to deal with him, chip tbought he could do better and was right because Mac was fantastic. Can’t imagine how insane Mac numbers would have been if Foles would have played 16 games
,,
Chip will never settle for bar offense. If shady is gone chip thinks he can do better, or atleast better with 12 million dollars. I still expect to have a good run game but I won’t be surprised to see chip clear that 12mil and use it to get even better offensive production out of 12mil we were scheduled to give shady. Sproles plays on 3rd down, that’s what he is here for, can’t play 13mil for shady to be a 2down back. We Lose really great players but I still think we are going to improve as an offense. Last year I bet we wiuld have been better then the year before if our OL wasn’t a mess even tho we lost desean, if our OL
Stays healthy and plays at an elite level I’m sure we will have a better offense then we had last year with shady .
..
If be upset if I saw chip cutting great defenders in their prime, but he is obsessed with offense so how can I go crazy with an offensive player getting cut when I know chip will always end up fielding a great offense. When the other shoe drops I bet it’s clear we have a quality offense even without shadys and desean
No, it doesn’t make any sense to go after Ngata.
We have a bunch of young talented cost controlled defensive linemen. We aren’t going to go spend a large sum of money on a player who is going to start declining. If he wants to come here to rotate through for 3-4 million? Sure, but that’s not happening. He’s going to cost 8mil+. Anyone who think’s that’s actually is goign to happen is trying way too hard to connect dots.
Kyle is entering year 3 of his contract with the bears. He’s pretty well locked in. It would take a premium pick to get him out.
No. Ifo is overhyped. He never really got his tape ripped apart by the masses because of his injury, but he sure as hell wasn’t a first round CB before the injury. He’s Boykins size. Other than Oregon there’s no reason to even think we would look at him.
If I’m not mistaken, Ngata was actually pre-Chip Oregon, so the connection is really, really tenuous at best.
Like I said, grasping at straws.
There is no trade talk at all on the bucs website. They need to get up to speed.
I don’t think we trade with the Bucs. They want Winston. I think the highest we would need to go would be #2.
nothing on the Titans blog either
I think our trade partner is the Titans too. And, personally I think they’d be silly to not take Foles, 2 firsts and a second. They have a lot of holes and Mariota is nowhere near a sure fire pick for a standard pro offense like they run.
I don’t see the Titans taking Mariota either. Nor do I see the Jags doing it. The Raiders are also a no, but do we play chicken with the Skins taking Mariota or staying with RG3&out.
The best target for Mariota would be the Jets at 6.
While Titans, Raider or Jags wont take him, do not mean a team like Texans, Bears, Chiefs wont trade up for him.
I think best bet for trade up is the Jags if the Bucs are dead set on Winston
I’m not worried about Bill O’Brien, Adam Gase, or Andy Reid going for Mariota.
Houston strikes me as a team, due to O’Brien, who’d be looking at Bryce Petty.
Chicago might elect to have a year where they “get healthy” by trading away some old stuff (Cutler, Marshall, etc.) draft D at 7, and go all-in for a QB next year when they could be drafting top 3.
The Chiefs just committed contractually to Alex Smith on an extension and are up against the cap. Trading up for a top of the draft QB by the Chiefs seems less likely than adding a depth guy later on.
I just have this feeling that AR will try to get a QB like Hundley or Petty in the 2nd, but I could 100% see him trade up for Mariota.
If they did some type of jack move with Alex Smith with a franchise tag he refused to sign (and then they cut him as they moved up to draft one of the guys you said), I’d agree. I just think the Smith contract precludes them from taking a QB early this year.
Lets say they draft a Petty, they can have him sit for 2-3 years and let him develop.
If I owned a team, I’d tell me coach no problem on that. Sadly too many of these jumpy owners demand that a young QB get on the field right away and refuse to allow the guy his proper apprenticeship period.
I think the great start was the worst that could happen for Reid and the new GM. They are pretty much forced to try and win now with a flawed roster.
Reid might be able to convince his GM to do it, consider that Reid him self has seen it up close how smart it is to draft a QB before the current is done.
If you want to essentially guarantee you get Mariota, I think you’ve gotta get up to #2 and assume Tampa takes Winston. I don’t think the Redskins would take Mariota, but I could definitely see them ruining our plans to take him at 6, by trading down with another team that really wants Mariota, perhaps someone like the Rams.
Mariota is nowhere near a sure fire pick, period.
Chip said at his last presser that he would not gut a team for one player. He will not mortgage the future for one player. His analogy was paying 50 mil to one player and not being able to sign the rest of the team.
He is not trading a bunch of draft picks for MM. He is building a TEAM. I am sure he would love to have a chance to see what the prospect of MM could do in the NFL. But he is not selling out for one golden duck err goose.
He has seen two years in a row where his defense failed him. He fired/reassigned the secondary coaches and 3/4 of the secondary. He will rebuild this defense secondary and get better quality at the O-line.
There is going to be a lot of disappointed fans. He has enough money for Cox, Kendricks, Maclin, plus a CB, S, OL, OLB? Then the draft pics. Maybe a mid season extension for someone or a late pick up?
I think, for Kelly, Mariota might be a special case.
I can’t deny that there could be a high level of interest from Kelly. I just think the price will be too high? I don’t think Kelly will let his heart rule his head.
He also said DeSean wasn’t going anywhere, he also said he wanted McCoy back next year. Hell remember when DeSean told everybody that he just got off the phone with Chip and was assured to not listen to any of the rumors and that he was planning on being an Eagle next year. He was cut 24 hours later.
And, honestly, even though Chip constantly talks out of both sides of his mouth, I actually believe him when he says he wouldn’t gut a team for one guy, or pay one guy $50million. The thing is, I think Chip has an incredibly detailed to add talent, subtract the guys that don’t fit or are over priced and be able to make a significant push to trade up for Mariota in a way that doesn’t gut our team or cause us to give up the next three years of draft picks for one player. I think Chip can get Mariota and do it in a way that he doesn’t feel like he mortgaged everything for one player.
The thing is that Kelly didn’t really tell him he wouldn’t be cut. He basically just told him to ignore the rumors and keep working hard.
True. I am sure what ever decision he makes he will have justified it to himself first.
He will rationalize it. That’s the thing with rationalize. They are just that. Rational Lies.
I think it will be to rich even for Chip.
He answered desean questions when pressed about it… He didn’t go into detail and make up hypothetical stories using les bowans name to prove his point and give an example about how he thinks you can’t trade 4-5 players for one
People only pay attention to and go by the things chip says that they agree with… You will get your self shot making too much sense around these parts lol, but you are absolutely right… A disappointed city and chip is going to say “I told you already nick is my QB, and make some joke about how a thousand years haven’t past yet, 997 more years til eagle contract expires and everyone will be pissed because they had false expectations believing a fabricated media narrative that happens every year around this time, that never proves to be true…
Tampa let Winston talk to Tampa media and posted a video on the team website.
Maryota dreams crushedededed
Trade with TEN just as feasible and theoretically should cost less.
I don’t think TEN takes him. I don’t see Ken Whisenhunt wanting to adjust his offense for a mobile QB who doesn’t have the arm for the vertical passing game he so adores.
Honestly i think you have to be talking to everyone from 2-6.
My issue is that if you’re going to trade Foles, then you’re better off doing it as soon as possible to maximize the trade value. If you wait until you land Mariota, you’re going to kill your leverage in deals. So you may need to roll the dice and trade Foles knowing it’s possible that you won’t land Mariota.
I wouldn’t take that risk I’d wait
The second you trade Foles any trade for Mariotta becomes 100000000 times more expensive.
Which is why we take Hundley!!!!!
Hopefully they’re making every effort then to lock down a deal with TB. Either include Foles in that deal or have another trade immediately lined up for Foles to go elsewhere. Re-sign Sanchez on short-term deal. I’d love to have both Foles and Mariota, but if you do that, in all likeliness Foles would leave next offseason for nothing. If you had the cap room, you could franchise him and try to work out a deal, but that would limit your other options. At least at the outset of FA next year.
Tampa’s taking Winston.
Unless Foles is a piece of the trade you make to go up and get Mariotta, you’re not going to get much value for him.
yeah they already have a foles clone on that team, i don’t think foles has much value to them.
Kelly always says you need two QBs in this league. Foles isn’t going anywhere.
No you don’t. The second Nick Foles becomes available the Eagles will be instantly called by at least 5 teams.
It’s obvious I like Foles, but to be honest, I doubt he has much trade value coming off the injury that benched him for half the season, coupled with him not performing as well as he did in 2013 when he did play. I just don’t see other teams not using that against us in negotiations.
I assume you’d trade Foles to whatever team you get the Mariota pick from, unless Mariota falls to 8 and you’re trading with Atlanta.
I really doubt getting Mariota will kill Foles leverage, because some of those teams are super desperate for QB play (I mean Josh McCown had a bidding war for him)
TB: Winston
Ten: I think Mettenberger fits what they want to do. I could see them grab someone like Fitzpatrick or something too. I just don’t see MM as a fit for his offense.
Jax: Bortles
Oak: Carr
Was: Committed to RG3 thanks to Danny boy. Gruden is similar to Ten. Vertical passing game led by a pocket passer.
NYJ: Wildcard. Bailey has had success with mobile QBs. MM has to be option here.
Chi: Stuck with Cutler. Huge financial commitment
Atl: Ryan
NYG: Have Eli but could be an option?
Stl: if you still believe Snead/Fisher, they still believe on Sam
Min: Teddy B
Cle: Just drafted Manziel and signed McCown
NO: Brees all the way. He is getting older and Payton is an offensive guru
Mia: Tannehill
SF: Kap
Hou: Traded for Mallett, who bombed. Bill wants a big pocket passer, no MM
SD: Still have Rivers, but isn’t getting younger
KC: Just signed Alex Smith
Cle: See above.
I think you are looking at hitting Jax before NYJ pick. If he falls pas Jets probably safe until the Rams. If he falls past the Rams, I think he could theoretically slide right to us. Doubt Chip could help himself though.
The issue with Cutler is that while he has a huge chunk of guaranteed salary this year(maybe all of it), if he’s on the roster at a certain point this year(middle of March) then his salary or at least a significant portion of it for 2016 becomes guaranteed too.
ESPN and NFL Network have to absolutely hate this. If pick 1 and 2 are known, it’s going to kill ratings.
Here’s what I want to see. NFL conducts the draft entirely in secret. Teams can’t notify players they’ve been selected at the time. NFL threatens massive fines for leaks. Then, they broadcast the draft starting with the last pick in the 7th round and work their way to #1.
Confused. When are we picking Mariota?
Nah, this happened in 2012. Everyone knew it was going to be Luck, then Griffin.
It was the most-watched draft ever (up to that point).
Ratings also grow year over year anyways.
Yea but ESPN had to sell the hell out of the “OMG WHAT IF INDY DOESN’T TAKE LUCK!!!???” narrative
The highest ratings have ever gone was with the Cowboys on the clock last year. I just don’t think they let us announce a trade up. The will they or won’t they would drive ratings into the stratosphere.
You’re better off with ESPN or NFL network on TV and Sirius NFL running on audio.
If we do somehow get Mariota, the weight of expectations on this kid could be crushing.
And rightly so, if we have to move up to get him.
man I really don’t want to give up anything to move up for Mariota. He is like a crappier version of RG3 coming out.
Tell me again how Jameis’ massive number of interceptions make him a better pro?
Because he was surrounded by superior talent? In the NFL his team will definitely be filled with talent that is massively superior to the team he is playing every week.
Because they were throws into “tighter windows”? That’s called not making the right read.
We all know that the 1st overall team is so great with talent that it won only 2 games but on purpose….
We also know that it must be a scheme flaw if he has to throw to wide open WRs.
Maybe I missed NinjaP ranting elsewhere about wanting Jameis, but the post here says nothing about targeting Jameis over Mariota. I think as much as some of us are excited by the possibility of changing things up from Foles, I think there are legitimate questions to be asked about Mariota as a prospect. Even if we do manage to pull of a trade to move up and get Mariota, at some point shouldn’t we be asking what all these other teams are seeing in him that makes them willing to pass?
He’s gone on the whole “well he plays in a spread offense and he runs and blah blah blah” rant about Marcus before, and he’s talked about the nonsense of Jameis making “NFL throws in an NFL system” which is horseshit.
Jameis really is a much better passing prospect, though.
Got it. I didn’t have the baggage associated with his post to bring in the Winston side. Ignoring that side though, I’d still like to hear more about why the Eagles are rumored to be so high on him yet others teams, including some with QB needs, are willing to pass on him. Obviously the Chip Kelly connection is the simple answer, but I want more of a scouting answer. What are the skill sets that make him better fit our offense that some other teams are less impressed by.
Coachability, fast runner, methodical in play structure (lots of package play use, etc).
The main reason he’s not as desired is that he gets a ton of help from the rest of the team/playstructure, both passing and rushing. Sure hitting that open guy is great and all, but you sacrifice play flexibility to spring someone open. It’s fine in spots, but much of the game? The other issue is that Mariota’s play out of play structure leaves a lot to be desired. He tends to have a tendency to rely on crappy defensive play when things go FUBAR, like passes across the middle after scramble, that were thrown across his body a bit. I’ve seen him get TDs, like in a game against Utah or Arizona, but NFL defensive breakdowns don’t breakdown enough for throws *that* dangerous.
It’s the Bruce Arians spread QB rant. These guys are coming out of spread offenses with 4 wide being more common than a fullback, with things like packaged plays, no huddling, no verbal audibles (the audibles are post snap non verbal). It’s scared old men who rather than realizing the labor market is supplying them with a bunch of really good round pegs, demand a square peg because that’s the way it’s always been done.
From a scouting perspective, the only legitimate ?’s about Mariotta are about things like is his 20 yard out going to have to be a perfectly timed route?
Jameis = Cutler INT issues mixed in with felonious behavior.
FWIW, I agree with you. I made a $100 bet with a buddy of mine that he’ll be out of the league in 5 years. I think he’s part 3 of the Ryan Leaf/JaMarcus Russell series.
The trick is you develop Mariota as a passer the right way instead of just rolling a ball out and saying “do whatever.”
Plus Mariota shows ZERO of the selfish, RGKnee, working on my brand traits that have kept Griffin from learning NFL pass concepts.
I’m not excited by the possibility of a roster and salary cap larded up with overpaid free agents (almost all free agents are overpaid). I’m even less excited by the possibility of mortgaging multiple drafts for Mariota. Even if he pans out, the best case scenario from that approach to team-building is a top heavy roster with a franchise quarterback but no depth, holes at key positions it can’t afford to fill, an inability to sign all its own rising young players, and a ton of dead money and several years of barren drafts making its future bleak if it doesn’t win right away. Perhaps most likely, Mariota is good but not great. Now you have that same situation with Alex Smith as your quarterback. Worst case scenario, Mariota is a bust, Kelly gets fired, and this offseason turns into a disaster it takes the franchise half a decade to recover from. I am not enthusiastic about the possibilities here.
what would you prefer we do? Did you think we were getting anywhere with last year’s team? Kelly cut the fat, we have $50m with which to sign players that may help us win games.
I’m actually okay with most of the cuts he made. Iffy on trading Shady. Against giving guys like Maxwell and Worilds who aren’t really elite players elite-level money. And dead set against trading up for Mariota unless he falls to the 10-12 range, which I doubt he will.
Honestly.. I wouldnf worry about all the bogus assumptions. It’s almost insulting to chip what people think he is going to do. City has lost its mind
Consider how well the Eagles have used FA in recent years. I wouldnt fear for using draft picks on Mariota and doubt we go all 2011 FA crazy.
With absolute holes (we aren’t talking Nate Allen isn’t a quality starter-type holes, but we-don’t-even-have-a-guy-with-starting-experience-type holes) at CBx2, S, OLB, RG, RB, and WR (Maclin could solve this obviously), how do you propose NOT going 2011 FA crazy AND moving up to draft Mariota AND fielding a quality team? We are looking at 7 or 8 new starters (including Mariota) next year with a very small amount of them likely to be filled by players currently on the roster. I don’t know that I fully agree with Xeynon, but I do think his point is reasonable.
OLB, RG, RB and WR isnt holes in my opinion or at least not big enough that we have to fill them in FA.
That pretty much only mean we need 1 safety, 1 high priced CB and 1 average CB.
I’d agrue OLB with you. Far too often we see opposing QBs with way too much time to throw the football on obvious passing downs.
But I don’t think Worilds is a guy who changes that.
We was 2nd in the NFL in sacks last year. The biggest problem was the secondary not giving our pass rush that ½ sec more to get near the QB
Hopefully that half second appears and it leads to Smith II and Sheard combining for 20 sacks from ROLB
a safety like McCourty or Searcy (or even Moore) can provide that if you combine that with a CB like Maxwell.
And Cole and Graham, two of the reasons for that, are no longer on the team. Barwin is out only proven OLB at this point. I gurantee the pass rush will drop off severely if this team goes into next season with Marcus Smith, Bryan Braman and Travis Long as its other OLBs.
We will have to disagree on what constitutes a hole on the team. At OLB, no way I am trusting Marcus Smith to start. At RG, maybe one of the backups can step up, so I’ll give you that one, but IMO, I would rather see someone with a stronger resume at least brought in to compete for the starting job. At RB, Sproles is not someone who can carry the starting job full time and Polk is a major injury concern, so you have to bring someone in to be the starter who you can rely on. Finally at WR, it comes down to Maclin, but until he re-signs, it’s definitely a hole.
2011 FA went wrong because Michael Vick became Michael Vick again, the 2010 and 2011 drafts sucked and Nnamdi was awful. It was an organisational failure, not a fault of going and splashing cash. If we had drafted well in 2011 and signed different players outcomes could be very different
When was the last time a team won the Super Bowl by going on a free agency splurge?
Starting to wonder if Chips grand plan is based on his not liking to rely on things out of his control, or things difficult to project, such as how a college kid will play in the NFL. Chips avoidance of letting things go to chance has already influenced his increasing cap space. His avoidance of chance will also drive him to get the first pick in the draft, not letting other teams jump ahead of him, as they did the past two years.
So Chip devalues high draft picks. Perhaps he really cant stand that even the best GMs only hit on 60% of first round picks. Perhaps he values free agents more than draft picks. Free agents have loads of tape at the NFL level, so one would think Chip would be confidant that he would have a greater than 60% hit rate on free agents.
He is confidant he will hit on the 26-28 year old free agents he signs this year. so he is not too worried about needing first and second round hits the next three years. If 1/2 of the next three years of 1st and 2nd round picks are hits, than a good GM would be expected to get three solid starters with those six picks.
Instead of waiting three years for three solid starters, Chip will sign a few solid free agents this year, and use the next three years of high draft picks for Mariotta.
When the free agents he signs this year are starting to decline and reaching too high cap hit levels, he will have his first and second round picks again, if he wants them.
So:
He gets lots of cap space. Done.
He stays away from free agents that are past their prime, this is a given.
He focuses on the correct age ranges for each position, so still in their prime or rising.
He signs a few key free agents that he trusts, through looking at their NFL tape, will perform as a first round draft pick “hit” would be expected to perform. More than a solid starter.
Trades three years of high draft picks for the first pick to choose Mariotta. He is very, very confidant he will hit on Mariotta. Leaving little to chance.
Seems like what’s happening. To be fair, if we didn’t do anything this year and just went into next year the team would isn’t getting any better, Cary is old Cole is old Herremans is old, Fletch sucks, Nate sucks, Williams sucks and is getting older. We just weren’t going to win playoff games with that team.
Agreed. Excellent post. Chip is all about low variance. All the way from the players he prefers to the ways he goes about getting them. Who cares about playing the odds and figuring out where other teams rank players. Trust your evaluations and go get the players you are most sure of. Leave nothing to chance.
Even his theory of scoring as quickly as possible decreases variance. By shortening the time of each possession you are increasing the number of possessions in a fixed time(60 minute). Maximizing the number of possessions each team gets in a game minimizes variance. Consider the extremes: Each team gets only one possession. Anything can happen. Even the worst team in the NFL has a decent shot against the best team. Now, consider that each team gets a crazy number of possessions, say 200. The better team will win nearly every time. One out of character bad drive doesn’t really negatively affect your chances.
Although the Eagles may only increase their number of possessions by one or two per game, it still decreases variance, which is something the better team wants.
A consequence of this would be that you are more likely to beat lesser teams, but also more likely to lose to better teams. Sound like the 2014 Eagles?
The major flaw in that is that you need a roster with multiple players who make pro-bowl level contributions on rookie level deals. One can’t build a viable 53 man roster with all of one’s picks gone for 3 years to get one QB, multiple free agent signings, and still sign one’s in-house free agents to big deals.
I just don’t see how we can do all of the following under the cap;
– Trade up all of our best picks over the next 3 years for Mariota
– Sign several big free agents this year to fill some of the following spots – RG, WR, RB, CB, CB, OLB, S
– extend Kendricks, Alonzo, Cox, Ertz, Lane, and Matthews
– have in house guys (Smith II, Huff, Watkins) be extended after stepping up and filling the holes we don’t fill in free agency
So either the big time trade up can’t happen, or it needs to include several existing young players of great value so we can maintain the ability to keep adding low cost / high potential players via the draft.
Free agents come at a premium. The tradeoff for that performance certainty is you have to pay market value for them. You can’t build an entire team that way – the salary cap will punish you if you don’t have a significant number of guys who outperform their contracts. You only get those guys through the draft.
Two days ago chip told Maclin “I want you here”…. And if you haven’t noticed, big balls chip is the big shot caller around these parts, and the grand puba has made it clear that he gets what he wants. He will pay the extra mil of two that it takes to keep Mac and the continuity we started to build with him…
…
Mac n Meco are the veterans who survive this and help chip keep the locker room smooth during this transition… Not certain what mecos contract will look like but I’m confident he will be on our bench. We need ILB depth, you don’t build depth cutting Meco and adding Kiko. You add Kiko to Meco, Kendricks, but Meco goes to the bench. He knows he didn’t play well his first year back from the last Achilles, I’m sure he won’t comain about going to the bench, ease him in a reduced role during his first year back from the injury, last Achilles he wasn’t right til his second year back..Meco knows if we cut him, coming off this injury, there won’t be a good market for him waiting to offer Money and a starting job, so we will see Meco and the Eagles come to an agreement altering his contract and Meco will be on our bench for atleast this year, after this year he probably will want a chance to play somewhere so we let him hit the market next year when he is healthy and has a chance to find a job
Mac’s agent might have said — let’s see what the market is. I hope Cole has no market and he comes back to the eagles 2 years $4m per – then retires.
“That’s the craziest Tuesday I can remember in a long time.”
you obviously weren’t at my last office party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avFq9errZCk
Something like this?
Drake’s bragging about making a grand on the boulevard, we made $17 million…in Buffalo.
I believe it was Plato who said, “It wasn’t a crazy office party if you can remember it.”
hey tommy, are you going to have to change your banner now? now that mccoy is gone there’s no one on there (vick/djax/shady) on the eagles anymore. and if you are changing it who are the next “big three”? i vote cox, maclin, and kendricks.
I like Cox, Johnson and Peters……… wait, what?
sounds like a good law firm
Nope – in memorium banner.
yeah, it could be like a time capsule…
Someone needs to punch that bitch Bruce Arians in the mouth. This is now the 3rd year he is taking shots at chip. I’m tired how this clown, he hasn’t won anything as a headcoach. He can’t even win his division and he is busy swinging from Kelly’s nuts talking trash ever year, when he is so insignificant to chip u will never hear chip say a peep about that pig face clown. Win your Division once before u run your mouth
..
I know it won’t happen again but I pray we play against that clown. If Nate wasn’t so horrible, pig face would be 0-2 against chip, having talked shit every year while chip just doesn’t acknowledge that idiot,.. Win your division you clown. Running your mouth while u escaped 0-2 with your top ranked D against our gimmicky offense clown!!! All because nate blows. Not only Wont Nate make that 3rd down stop
For us to win gMe Cardinals game, he gives up a friggin TD to piss away our win. I can never forgive Nate for allowing this big to escape with a win when we were about y
..
I would root to play them in the playoffs, but I would rather them suck and have. To watch us play in January from their living rooms..
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We don’t often agree on much, but we can agree on this. I want to take a bat to that guy’s head every time I see him or read what he’s written. He’s a bitter old dude who just can’t let things go. My suspicion is that he resents the fact that he’s spent so much time languishing in the NFL before getting a shot as a head coach while other guys like Chip jump right to the top.
Here’s the thing, Arians: there’s a reason why that happened.
My thoughts after Arians rant about spread QBs:
https://twitter.com/RWFreeman/status/551131367527165953
Well played, sir.
Maybe we can trade them Foles for Peterson and a 2nd round pick.
yep, it seems its better to throw pics against dropping LBs than keep finding the wide open WR.
Heh, and that’s why you love Petty. Oughta love Geno Smith, too! How come that Mountaineer coach ain’t coaching in the NFL?
To win at the highest level of the game, you have to have players that make plays. It’s great to have a good system, too, no doubt–but there are so many non-playing scouts and coaches trying to hog the limelight and see themselves as geniuses when they are only part of the puzzle.
I wasnt a fan of Geno Smith and I think Petty is a development QB best drafted in 3rd.
Also college gimmick coach Chip Kelly seems to do just fine
Yeah cant stand this dude, saw him on NFLam yesterday and was getting ready to throw my coffee at the TV but he actually was more respectful than i expected. Yeah he said “he thought it was a great move for buffalo..kiko not a great player yet…but think he can be coming off his surgery”. But he also did say that “culture beats talent, and chips building his culture and hes doing a hell of a job!”
Greg Cosell shows loss to Arizona was more on B. Davis than on Nate Allen.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-film-review–how-coaching-set-up-arizona-s-two-long-touchdowns-230249074.html
Hate him all you want, but Arians is my second favorite HC in the league. Did yeoman’s work in Indy, and got more out of Carson Palmer and his no-name backups than any other QB “guru” probably could. He’s old and he’s gruff, but he isn’t stupid and his success isn’t just luck
Ugh. This kind of thing makes me think that no matter which big-name FA’s we get this offseason, we’re still going to be completely out-coached in important games.
I’m not so bothered. Our D is in transition, and it’s been mostly fun to see the strides they’ve taken in 2 seasons. Just remember where they were in 2012. Arians is an offensive schemer, and it is one thing to know it, which Bill Davis must know after two meetings, but it is quite another to have the tools to execute in spite of wrong guesses. I think our D will get there soon.
bills defense really rivaled that of Seattle, bills have better pass D then the LOB… Might as well Poach from the elite defenses. bills would have really been scary if they had Kiko on D this year… Use Kiko to recruit, free agent Haul:
1) Kiko Alonso ILB
2) Jerry Huges OLB
3) Da’norris Searcy
…
3 ballers from a top 3 dense lol…. Yes I know it won’t haooen
Just pass over Hughes. I don’t trust him to be anything other than a draft bust who finally played hard to get paid.
http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000476297/allunder25-team
Lol ok. I like Armstead and all but him over Lane? Just no.
They also had Borland over Kendricks.
In theory our defense could look something like this next year if we want it to happen:
Suh-Logan-Cox
Barwin-Kendricks-Alonso-Worilds/Hughes (pick who you prefer)
Maxwell-Searcy-Jenkins-Carroll/Boykin
I want no part of Suh’s 20mil a year contract he is going to get off some stupid team he is not worth it in a 3-4 system. If you want to spend crazy resourses trade a 1st round pick to Andy for Houston’s rights.
Suh isnt going to get 20 and I really doubt he even tops Watt.
Also in theory Suh is perfect fit in a 3-4 because of his insane strength and when looking at scouting reports, it seems Nebraska used a 3-4 2 gap when he played there
Suh would be great in a 3-4, but just not as impactful as a 3tech in a 4-3. And Suh is going to get PAID, there is 800mil plus out there and he is a hall of fame talent. I have read that the bidding starts at $17mil, and i think it will end up at 5 year $100mil (last year may be silly money to pad ego but it will get there)
If Suh ends up getting that, I do not want him, but if he “only” costs 15 mill per year, I would love him
It would be insane if Texans sign Suh opposite of Watt. Well I’m not sure if they still play a1 gap 3-4.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/1/8/7509819/spread-vs-pro-style-offense-whats-the-difference-Florida-State-Oregon-Ducks
Good break down on how silly the “spread” versus “pro style” is at the college level.
The only real difference is the amount of huddling NFL teams do and how much they play under center. Everything else from formations, to personnel groupings to passing concepts is pretty much the same at the most basic level.
Bryce Petty needs to email your link to some more NFL teams then!
I think Petty goes higher than some fans think.
My own prediction is that Houston trades into pick 32 (O’Brien to Belicheck special) and gets him with the last pick of the first round.
I doubt Petty goes in the 1st, but mid 2nd wouldnt shock me at all
The thing with QBs is that if you take one in the end of the first round, you get that 5th year for a really heavy discount due to the new CBA.
That is true. I just think it will be Hundley over Petty by the end of the 1st, but nothing will surprise me when it comes to QBs and the draft
What if we’re talking both guys going at the end of the first? Seattle has way too many guys on the cusp of big deals. They could trade out of 31 to pick up multiple other picks and let a team take Hundley in that range.
That could totally happen with a few teams in early 2nd who might pass on a QB in the early 1st
It just makes too much financial sense to get a guy on that type of deal . Look at Teddy’s contract.
http://overthecap.com/player/teddy-bridgewater/2971
And here is the language for the 5th year option;
For players selected between 11th and 32nd in the draft, the same “calculation is used to compute their salaries. The difference is that the average of the third through 25th highest Prior Year Salaries for the player’s position equals the player’s fifth-year salary.”
Here is the list of anticipated values (that will go up, but is WAY below market)
http://overthecap.com/looking-ahead-first-rookie-option-years/
QB in the 11-32 range is $10.5; that’s cheap for a star if your pick hits.
yea the cost control on hitting on great players after the top 10 is just insane
I keep trying to get aboard the Mariota trade train, but I just cannot see how it makes sense.
Lets go with a hypothetical trade of 3 1st’s and 2 2nd’s. (those picks can be replaced with players on the roster Kendricks for a 2nd etc.) Taking Howie’s 60% success rate for a team drafting competently in the first 2 rounds, over the next 3 years that’s equal to 3 quality starters.
I just cannot see how Foles with 3 quality pieces more than Mariota is not going to be more successful than him over the next 3 years. Foles has proven that he can win games and put up points in a good situation, so draft him a good roster to surround him with. Look at Dallas last year at what a best in the NFL offensive line can do for a QB and an offence, and their defence sucked and with some different calls they could have gone to the superbowl.
We are actually in a really strong place as a team. We have a good young Defensive line with ¾’s of a special linebacking core. We have a good if ageing OL with 2 young studs, and some good young pieces outside. We have a best in the NFL special teams unit. Go out and get a Safety CB and OLB and you have a young talented defence. Sign Cox Kendricks and Maclin to long term deals.
Draft focusing on offence BPA (RB, WR and OL – the strengths of this draft class) unless one of the 5 stud pass rushers fall into your grasp at 20. That is a deep playoff team this coming year unless injuries hit badly. That is a superbowl team next year if you draft/develop well.
For Mariota trade to work out he has to be Aaron Rogers 2.0 to be worth it. Even if he is Rogers 2.0 he is going to struggle at times initially,he is going to need 2-3 years to develop before being able to take a team deep in the playoffs (see Andrew Luck). During this time the team will be getting older without players to replace them coming through the system, then it is time for a mega contract and we will be drafting at the bottom on the draft to replace talent. Mariota is going to need to be Aaron Rogers like to overcome that and convert into superbowl wins.
If he is a 7th -10th best QB he is not winning anything in the next 5-6 years until the trade costs wash through the system. If he is a bust we are going to be in a dark place for 5 years while we rebuild and recover. The risks are massive and the chance of success is low, you need to be sure that Foles can not win a superbowl (don’t see how you can be) and that you are sure about Mariota being a top 3 QB (again don’t see how you can be).
Only caveat at this stage is if the cost is a lot less (1st+2nd+Foles) for example then scenario is very different.
Good argument.
Post crazy Tuesday mock!
Assumes we signed starting S, CB, OLB but only added mid/low level guys at 2nd CB, WR, RB, O-line. We did not retain Maclin or Graham. Cole also didn’t return.
The Jets passed on Mariota (and yes it took me until the 3rd simulation to get that to happen) and St. Louis agreed to take 2015, 2016, and 2017 picks for Mariota. In actuality their pick at 10 is worth 1300 points. Our at 20 is worth 850. So the other 450 I would think would be our 1 in 2016 and Foles. The Rams, in theory, flipped Bradford to somebody for a conditional 2016 pick.
Mariota comes in and starts. Collins doesn’t have to play a ton year one and can learn. Smith gets to learn as a reserve / spec teamer as well. Cobb comes in and immediately gets carries. Marpet wins the starting RG job with an amazing camp. Montgomery becomes our kick returner as Huff works more into the deal as a WR. Boyle, although not active much, is prepped to take Celek’s job next year as the blocking TE. Valles also learns OLB from a bench role. Hager fills the Casey Matthews roles as spec teams goon, last ILB on the roster.
And yes, none of my picks are busts!
Round 1 Pick 10 (STL): Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon (A)
Round 2 Pick 25 (CAR): Jalen Collins, CB, LSU (A-)
Round 3 Pick 20: Derron Smith, FS, Fresno State (A)
Round 3 Pick 25 (CAR): David Cobb, RB, Minnesota (B)
Round 4 Pick 14: Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart & William Smith (B-)
Round 4 Pick 20: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford (B+)
Round 5 Pick 20: Nick Boyle, TE, Delaware (A-)
Round 6 Pick 20: Max Valles, OLB, Virginia (B-)
Round 7 Pick 20: Bryce Hager, ILB, Baylor (B)
If Mariota costs that little and slides then something like that could work. It is total crap that Mariota slides however. Mariota goes no 2 to the Titans or they trade to some one who wants him. (the crap about the Titan’s being all in with Mettenberger is just smoke)
Mariota is too good a prospect to slide considering he has no red flags, massive physical skills, throws a pretty ball and is a football 1st guy. Yeah he didnt make pro reads and throws from under centre but very few college QB’s do, and that does not mean he cannot, just that he has not shown it yet.
Thanks.
I really doubt the Titans take Mariota at 2. Everything points to Leonard Williams and Mariota shares nothing of the values the Titans want in a QB.
A lot of raiders fans saying it probably wouldn’t take that much to trade up to 4. Could be a realistic destination, the raiders could use as many picks as they can get really.
[…] I wrote a piece recently that talked about some of the wild moves made by Seattle. Some failed, but enough worked that they put together a great team and have a Super Bowl to show for it. You won’t build a great team without taking risks. […]