Lynch in the Mix?
Posted: April 7th, 2016 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 213 Comments »What happens if the Browns take Carson Wentz and the Niners take Jared Goff? We’ve talked about the Eagles taking Ezekiel Elliott or Vernon Hargreaves, amongst others.
What about Paxton Lynch?
Most people are going to have him rated as the #3 QB, but what does that mean in terms of overall value. I doubt many teams are going to have him rated as a Top 10 prospect. That said, I do think you can make an argument for using a Top 10 pick on him.
I’ve talked before about the danger of a team talking itself into taking a QB. Examples of this that I have mentioned are E.J. Manuel, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder. So that you know this isn’t revisionist history, let’s see what I said about them at the time. Let’s start with Manuel. My Eagles Draft Preview listed him as a 2nd rounder (based on how I thought they might have him graded…I didn’t like him even that much). This comment sums up my thoughts.
Please Avoid These Players
QB EJ Manuel – Florida State … Still a project. I doubt he ever develops.
You can also ask Jimmy Bama my thoughts on Manuel. Any time I want to insult a QB prospect, I tell Jimmy that the guy reminds me of Manuel.
Longer notes on the other two, a draft review for Locker and a preview piece on Ponder.
LOCKER – I was shocked when they went with QB Jake Locker at #8. I knew the Titans needed a QB for the long term, but I just didn’t think Locker would go that early. I don’t think he’s worth that pick. My personal feelings aside, there was little talk of Locker going to Tennessee. That pick really surprised me.
We all know Jake is very talented. He’s got good size and is a terrific athlete. Jake could pursue a baseball career if he wanted. You absolutely see his athletic ability on the football field. He’s nimble in the pocket and dangerous as a runner. Jake ran for 1,939 yards and 29 TDs in college (and remember sack yards lowered that yardage total). Jake has the arm to make every throw in the book. There are times when he made some great intermediate and deep throws. He can put the ball into tight spaces and has good velocity. What’s not to love?
While Jake has all the natural ability in the world, he is still raw. Normally this wouldn’t be a huge deal. Cam Newton is raw, but went 1st overall. The difference is that Jake played in a pro style offense for 4 years. He had very good QB coaching for the last couple of seasons. After all that, he should not look as raw as he does. Things weren’t always ideal for him (lack of great OL or skill players), but I don’t think that excuses Jake’s lack of progress. He should have shown more development as a QB than he did.
I have no doubts that Jake can be a good NFL QB. Will that happen? Very different feeling there. I’m just not so sure that will happen. So why did the Titans take him 8th overall? Clearly they love his talent. Also, he has great intangibles, which was a major issue with Vince Young. Jake is a natural leader. He really commands the huddle and you can see that the other players play hard for him. This is critical for the Titans. Chris Johnson comes across as a flighty guy. Kenny Britt definitely has issues. That huddle needs a leader as much as a gifted passer. And Jake can be that guy. The pick will make sense if he can just develop into a consistently solid passer.
And
PONDER – Florida State Senior QB Christian Ponder is one tough player to evaluate. You can make a very strong case for him, but there are some issues that will affect his value as well.
Ponder has a build that I love in QBs at 6’2, 229, the middle ground between the huge guys and small guys. He is a good athlete. Ponder runs well and is quick, fast, and elusive. Great student. He graduated a while ago and kept right on going with his academics. No ballroom dancing classes for him (Matt Leinart took that as a Senior). There really are no questions about his physical ability to play or the mental side of things.
There is a downside to Ponder. First, injuries. He didn’t miss a game in 2008. He then missed 4 games as a Junior. He missed 2 games as a Senior and was knocked out of the bowl game early on with a concussion. The injury from his Junior year was a serious shoulder separation that required surgery. And it was on his throwing arm. He had an elbow injury that bothered him in 2010. NFL teams will examine him very thoroughly to make sure they are comfortable with him. Can he handle the beating that QBs take in the NFL? Ponder is also a highly inconsistent player. Let’s just talk about some games from this past season:
vs Oklahoma … 11-28-113 with 2 INTs
vs UNC ……….. 24-34-264 with 3 TDs, 0 INTs
vs Boston Coll.. 19-31-170 with 2 TDs, 3 INTs
The initial reaction is to say that struggling vs OU isn’t a big deal. Good defense. Not this year. OU was 53rd in Total Defense and 51st in Pass Defense. BC was 13th in Total Defense, but only 76th in Pass Defense. Neither unit was elite. Put on the game tape and you don’t see anything crazy from them. Ponder just struggled. He was really bad against BC. He threw one pick-six and had another called back by penalty. They were bad passes/decisions.
The UNC game showed him at his best. He threw the ball well and the offense was efficient. FSU lost the game, but it wasn’t because of the offense. They put up 35 points. The PK missed 2 FGs, including one at the end of the game. Ponder played really well and looked like a star QB. Ponder played well in the Senior Bowl (MVP). He did well at the Combine. You could see his talent and potential. You start thinking that maybe he’s going to be a great value pick. 1st round physical skills, but without having to spend a 1st round pick.
Ponder is at his best running a short, controlled passing game. He gets the ball out pretty quickly and has good accuracy. He can throw on the move and has excellent mobility. Ponder would fit very well with a team running the West Coast offense. His vertical passing needs work.
While there certainly is a lot to like about Ponder I don’t think you can ignore his injuries and inconsistency. The lack of good QB prospects means he will get over-drafted, probably in the 2nd round. Personally, I’m not sure that he can be a good starter in the NFL. There is just nothing compelling about Ponder. He was never a great player at FSU. He’s not a passer that wows you with some of the throws he makes. He never was a guy that carried the team on his back and got them to overachieve. I do think he could be a good backup, based on his smarts and athleticism. Ponder may very well become a good starter. I’m just not willing to bet on it, with a 1st or 2nd round pick. I have no problem with a team using a mid-round pick on him.
If Ponder checks out medically, he could go in the very early 2nd. You wonder if some team will reach and make a play for him in the late 1st. I don’t think that would be wise, but teams have a habit of falling in love with some prospects. If Buffalo doesn’t take Newton or Gabbert in the 1st I could see them going for Ponder. He has the athleticism that Coach Chan Gailey seems to want and reminds me a bit of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the incumbent starter for the Bills.
Paxton Lynch is nothing like this trio.
Those 3 players all had major holes in their game. All of them happened to be smart, tough, high character guys that teams fell in love with. Character pushed those players further up the draft board than they ever should have gone. Teams thought those players were both hard working and coachable, which should help a guy to improve at the next level.
The problem is that I think QB prospects have to show they can be something special in college. I never saw that from those players. Lynch has definitely had moments of greatness as a collegian. Leading Memphis to an upset over Ole Miss was impressive, but just as important is how it happened. Lynch was 39-53-384 with 3 TDs in that game. He put the team on his back and led them to a win. For the season, Lynch threw 28 TDs and only 4 INTs.
These aren’t just numbers, either. The tape is very impressive.
Again showing ability to throw on the move accurately. (@paxtonlynch) #EaglesNation https://t.co/brJjykF5CO
— Greg S. Kennedy (@GregSKennedy) March 4, 2016
Good footwork and a strong arm. (@paxtonlynch) #EaglesNation https://t.co/ZY5np1PKtf
— Greg S. Kennedy (@GregSKennedy) March 4, 2016
@PaxtonLynch 2015 Highlights. Good luck in the NFL. Top QB prospect. Full video in link: https://t.co/WoGcrO1wVZ pic.twitter.com/LCP9yeeYNE
— Scott Takade (@ScottTakade) January 13, 2016
I had no problem with the Eagles taking Lynch at pick 13.
The Eagles now have pick no. 8. That changes things a bit, but Lynch is a QB and that also has to be taken into account. I definitely prefer Jared Goff, but Lynch has the potential to be an outstanding starter in the NFL. He would need time to develop. Sam Bradford will be starting and Chase Daniel will be the backup. Lynch could sit and learn.
We know the Eagles are checking Lynch out carefully, but we don’t know what they think of him. It is possible they don’t like him as a Top 10 pick. We might just find out in a few weeks.
*****
Ezekiel Elliott just said on NFLN he has a visit set up with the #Eagles
— Conor Myles (@MylesSheet) April 7, 2016
I’m sure the Eagles like Elliott.
I still can’t figure out if they would really spend the 8th pick on a RB, even one as good as Elliott.
We might just find out in a few weeks.
_
Perfect world has Rams trade up to 6 to land Goff or Wentz, 49ers take another position and Eagles can safely trade down and pick up Lynch in the mid-teens. Assuming the Jets don’t get any ideas in their head.
I just do not understand taking that kind of risk with a QB pick. If you think he is a franchise QB in 1-2 years time then take him wherever you can. Imagine we trade down and the Bears (who cannot be sold on Cutler being the long term solution) really rate him?
Value at the QB position is almost meaningless, hitting on a QB and getting an elite one is worth 2-3 other great players, and is a 3rd round pick worth that cost? i don’t think so.
“Value at the QB position is almost meaningless”
I categorically reject that statement. Value always has meaning. I don’t want to overpay for the value of an asset at the time I pay for it If I could have paid less for it.
But that is because I don’t see Lynch as a safe enough bet as a franchise QB.
pick and positional value is set by the ‘market’ of what the NFL values. The examples above (Locker/Ponder/Manuel) shows how highly NFL teams rate even marginal talent at the position. I have Lynch above those players, and think he can be a franchise QB so i think you would have to pull the trigger if you have that kind of evaluation on him…. since there is a very good chance he does not make it to 12-14.
I hear what you’re saying, but Locker/Ponder/Manuel were all trash picks. So I could just as easily counterbalance the perception that some teams have been overrating the need to draft anything less than surefire franchise talent at that spot in the draft.
I get that Lynch is a better arm talent prospect than those other guys, but the nonsense system played by Memphis leaves Lynch with significant work to do before he can play the game the right way.
Bottom line on Lynch is that he just worries me too much for the opportunity cost to take him without trading down a good ways.
Every QB prospect considered in the first 3 rounds has a physical skillset that can be successful at the NFL level….. A QBs brain is so much more important than his arm when discussing QBs picked inthe top 100….rare that we see a QB go top 100 that doesn’t have physical tools to play in the league…the hard part is that those tools won’t mean shit without a proper QB brain
I see what you are saying about overdrafting and wanting the self-discipline to get the pick at the right spot, but Fufina has a point. If every year the Eagles get themselves the “correct” pick for a certain QB’s value, and every year he is already gone, there isn’t much comfort in knowing we valued him correctly.
There is no scenario in my perfect world where Lynch becomes the QB of the Eagles
In a perfect world, goff, Wentz and Lynch all go top 7,
You prefer that to Goff or Went falling to 8?
[…] Tommy Lawlor What happens if the Browns take Carson Wentz and the Niners take Jared Goff? We’ve talked […]
Barring a rogue planet striking Earth or the Pats successfully suing the NFL for having the gall to expose their incessant cheating, I like our odds.
I like Lynch as a prospect.
Now I’m no expert by any stretch of imagination, so couldn’t tell you details of why I like Lynch. But he doesn’t impress me as much as Nick Foles did in Arizona. I like him a bit more than Kaepernick, and about as much as Goff.
Anyone else feel that way? I think he’s a 3rd round guy. Goff is mid second. Wentz is late first.
I was ok with Lynch at 13. Don’t want any part of him at 8. There is no scenario where he is the BPA.
He’s either a franchise quarterback or he’s not. In the end it will be an awesome pick or a shit pick at #8 or #13.
He’s too busy volleying piss grenades at Ben Allbright to answer.
How did he get the stench of Pittsburgh to fit inside of a grenade?
i imagine its like the Perri-air cans from Spaceballs, but instead of mountain air, they are filled with Pittsburgh air. just pop the tab and toss it!
Iron City is the worst.
How should I feel about this?
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/718101726243516416
http://www.evilenglish.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/il_570xN.505297045_m5d0.jpg
You should feel concerned for the universe that Adam Schefter feels the need to tweet out things that everyone can watch on TV at the same time he is watching it.
Well he’s hedged his bets nicely by saying perhaps, that way if he’s right he’s a genius and if he’s wrong well… It was only a maybe.
If he says “perhaps the best QB in the draft” about every prospect that goes on his show, he’s bound to be right about one of them…
Exactly. And, more so, he is right every year.
John Gruden should be suspended from ESPN for that statement.
Has Gruden ever had a QB prospect on his show that he didn’t like?
Didn’t he say the same thing about Manziel?
Gruden really is a caricature of a Superbowl winning coach at this point. If he was asked about any other notable QB prospect he would of said the same thing. That guy needs quit with his fake BS. Really sick of it.
Once again Gruden demonstrates why he is a TV personality and no longer a head coach.
I’m glad the Eagles are checking out Zeke!
He’d be a good pick with one of our 3rd rounders. You know, due diligence and all that.
Amen on no Zeke at 8
I think shady made us all happier than we ever anticipated so of we go RB at 8 i guess im finebe their call
Shady was a 2nd rounder.
Too lazy to check.. thanks.
If he is th bpa at 8 then wtf im happy to have any &all bpa’s.
As an Eagles fan… if you’re happy you’re doing it wrong.
I can’t believe it took me this long to figure out why it’s called twitter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqkdcT25ss
博客多久更新一次？
Greg Cossell was on with Ross Tucker yesterday. His two major concerns with Lynch; major inconsistency from game to game along with declining play as the year went on.
I don’t see Lynch as a safe enough projection to a productive NFL QB to justify taking him at 8. I really also don’t care for him at 13. 20 something through mid round 2; now you’re talking.
I think you have to find out what caused the changes in the last 5 games in 2015. They completely changed the offensive scheme, took the ball out of his hands and decided to play conservative football. But up to that point he was playing Heisman level QB play, and was being talked about as the top QB and carrying Memphis to a top 10 ranking.
I do not think they changed because they did not trust him to make the plays… he had been making plays, carrying his team to victories all year, he was not turning the ball over, was efficient as well and they were winning a lot of games.
So you need to dig in and talk to the players and coaches and investigate what was happening. Depending on those answers (which media people will struggle to get) has a massive impact on where you draft him. If you believe in sept-oct 2016 Lynch he is a top 10 pick. If you believe in Nov-Decemeber Lynch he is 2nd rounder or worse.
Put me in the 2/3rds in the Nov / Dec camp.
I think he shows very adequate arm strength and can drive the ball down field but his balls tend to float on him. Much like Foles, who can throw the ball 55-60 yards in the air, but they take awhile to get there on their rainbow path.
Tommy you do not have any resevations about Lynch’s pocket presences?
I’ll phone in that reservation for 2!
Table for 3 please
Of course he needs work on that coming out of a primary read system. that’s part of the reason he needs time because of the system he was in so I’m not disagreeing .
But you can see he has that in him here at 1:15, 1:47, 2:08, 2;20 . I realize he had terrible games there’s no getting around that. Lynch was inconsistent but Lynches coaching played a part also.
That’s one of things I like when Lynch is comfortable and on his game he has natural feel and look. He will need time to learn the system and good coaching.
His training guy who was Blake Bortles college QB coach has him working on keeping his head up according to Lynch in Pro Day interview with Mayock.
There’s no doubt there’s risk with all 3 of the top 3 QBS and probably the most with Lynch and then Wentz.
https://youtu.be/Jdm3TayuSUo
So Sean Oakman goes from regular assault at Penn State to sexual assault at Baylor. Stay classy.
https://twitter.com/Deadspin/status/718251155579645952
So basically you are saying that TrentBaalke and Jerry Jones will fight over Oakman on draft night?
Makes you wonder what’s next for him,
Lynch reminds me alot of Brock coming out.
Continued from last thread…
If you haven’t weighed in with your opinion, feel free to do so here. I will compile the results with those from yesterday.
Borrowing GEAGLES’ list, which I think is a good one, an alternate
question. What two names can you cross off and be satisfied with whoever
is left at 8?
In no particular order:
1) Tunsil
2) Wentz
3) Ramsey
4) Jack
5) Goff
6) Bosa
7) Buckner
8) Zeke
9) Stanley
10) Hargreaves
Buckner & Bosa
Bosa and Hargreaves
Tunsil and Ramsay, since they won’t be available anyway.
But that doesn’t help. I idea is that 7 of them won’t be available at our pick. You eliminate two names so that you have 8, guaranteeing that one of your 8 IS available.
Admitting my general ignorance of all things draft (basically, Tommy and this comment section provides me with everything I know), I’d have to say Buckner and Zeke. But even saying that, I’m not sold on anyone outside the top OT (I keep mixing up the names) and Ramsey. Jack seems to be a stud, but I’m not sure how much of a difference maker he’d be in Schwartz’s scheme. The QBs are crap shoots, but I’m fine with either of them if the Eagles decide that they like them. The rest of them seem to garner mixed reviews. But I’ll probably be satisfied with any of them, knowing that there are no great choices at 8, outside Zeke and Buckner (who doesn’t seem to be a fit for Schwartz’s D, otherwise, I like him a fair bit).
This is exactly the point of the question. I am certain fans everywhere, every year, lament the fact that they have pick X in a draft with only (X-n) good players. But it isn’t realistic to say there are only 3 players one would take. So here, I framed the question so that you are stuck with 8, just like the team will need to be.
The pick #8 should not come with any questions attached. It should be a real ” wow, I can’t believe he was available” moment. Everyone should see the logic in the selection and be on board. An instant starter for at least a decade. No projects who have to sit for a couple of years. If such a player is not there at #8, trade back in the first round and replace the missing 2nd round selection; this should result in 2 competent starters before the season is completed.
Don’t forget the “idiot factor”; some team (or two) is going to do something stupid before the 8th selection is made. Don’t let that team be the Eagles. Just remain at 8 and at least see who the football gods drop in our lap.
The teams’s top 10 might be a little different than ours. I wouldn’t hesitate in drafting a guy considered to be maybe #11 overall at #8; you can’t be that cute since a team could grab him at #10 if you try to trade back. You just don’t want big reaches where it’s pretty obvious the player would be available later.
You may not get an instant starter — a QB would sit. I think I’d be just fine with Ronnie Stanley — and he may not win a job until Peters leaves. A CB would have to win the job — not a given with rookies at that position. The Eagles have potential answers at most every position so I don’t think any rookie would be a guaranteed starter, though in most positions you’d hope they would win the job.
Your are living in a bit of a dream world. Even when we had the 4th pick there was disappointment. Chip REALLY wanted Plaxico Burress Jr. Eric Fisher was the best T, and there were not elite QB prospects. Zero(just imagine if there had been).
We got a guy who has started for us every year since we had him and done pretty well. Better than Fisher. He certainly won’t be confused with Joe Thomas anytime soon. We got stuck with him really. He wasn’t the first or second choice. If you put some context to it and look at the rest of the top 10 in that draft we really struck gold.
I don’t disagree that they should move back if they hate someone, but I don’t think they should not draft someone just because they have him rated 13 and not 8. I would MUCH rather have Sheldon Richardson than Tavon Austin.
My recollection, is that for whom remained, the Johnson pick was viewed as a solid selection by almost everyone. I think CK was the one leaving in a dream world as far as his wants and actual drafting were concerned. Besides, you can’t be disappointed if the philosophy is BPA; by definition, you get what you wanted!
Right but this is a guy who was a QB only a few years before. There were questions. By your philosophy we move out of that spot and miss lane.
Use your philosophy on any other team in the top 10 other than us and Det, you would of been right. Its all about that gamble.
That is easy to say in a Madden-esque way, but
(1)when was there ever a draft where there were 8 (or 3) can’t miss prospects,
(2)why would anyone be willing to trade up to 8 if there isn’t anyone worth taking, and
(3)what do you do then? Get fleeced on trade down value? Roll the dice? Wait for your time to expire?
1. Instant starter to me means he is better, younger, and cheaper than the current occupant at that position – not a very high hurdle.
2. Greater fool theory; value is in the eyes of the beholder.
3.Trade-down would probably result in the selection of a very solid OL who you expect to start at LG in ’16 and eventually move to tackle when Peters retires. If he develops beyond expectations, he goes to LT; if he’s good, he replaces at RT; and if he’s just an average LG, he stays there. Such a pick will, at the worst, improve the existing OL ( remember he just has to be better than Barbre to a successful pick) plus get back another shot at a quality player with the replacement second pick.
3. You now drafted a G in round 1. Or a fullback. You’d almost certainly gain the largest improvement over incumbent starter if you went fullback after a move back.
Well according to Heath Evans you cant win a SB without a fullback. Fullback in Round 1 sounds like a legit plan to me.
Not really suggesting drafting a G in round 1. Using as an example, drafting the best OL available when picking with lots of upside. Let him compete, and hopefully win LG position in ’16; if the potential upside is there, move him to OT in ’17; if it’s not, leave him at guard for the next ten years. You expect to be picking one of 2 bookend T’s for the future; at the least, he should be a starting OL for that period. As we saw last year, they don’t grow on trees and everyone has a game or two or three where better guard play would have resulted in better QB play, better running game, and more victories.
And they shouldn’t be wedded to doing this at #8. If they can do this lower in the first round and re-capture a second round pick, that’s a good option.
Maybe I am misunderstanding your description. To me a
“real ‘wow, I can’t believe he was available’ …(e)veryone should see the logic in the selection…instant starter for
at least a decade”
player is much different than
“better, younger, and cheaper than the current occupant at that position.”
I think we can all agree that we hope the seven teams before us all do something absurdly dumb and end up with players on one of those lists of guys drafted before an all-time great. Likewise, we all hope that Howie is able to outsmart and outmaneuver the other GMs and get us maximum impact and value. But relying on “can’t believe he was available” and greater fool theories ignores the fact that the other guys get paid too and might not do something stupid.
Words from HR were that his target was to move into the top 10 because there was top 10 talent he wanted. Shedding the contracts of Max/Kiko were a bonus.
…..
Understanding you have to take what they say with a grain of salt, he re-iterated those words a few times. IF I’m to put any stock in those words – HR could have had Lynch at 13. IF that’s to be true, and HR wanted Lynch, he would have made a different deal – like get a 2nd rounder.
…..
My opinion on Lynch doesn’t matter as I don’t think Lynch is HR’s target — not even close. With that said — people on the nfln said that Lynch is Denvers target. One guy even commented that Lynch would not only be a future qb but would see time this year(meaning a “now” qb). If he is right(not saying he is) and Denver thinks Lynch IS that type of qb – why wouldn’t the Eagles consider Lynch at 8? Still — I can not believe HR wants Lynch so bad, that he moved to 8 to get him.
I think moving up to 8 was a bonus, and helped give the team better options… think it was too early in the draft process to be a premeditated move for a specific guy.
As for Lynch… he can start year 1 effectively if you put him in a shotgun spread offense like we ran with Chip the last 2 years, and make sure he throws on the run for anything down the field. However i think Lynch would benefit from being given time to develop and learn all the aspects of a complete NFL QB’s game.
I don’t know how actual teams view players, but I took a top 400 ranking from 5 different sources to develop a composite board(yes, I have no life). Based on draftnik ratings at least, you get a consistent top 10 of the following players:
Tunsil
Ramsey
Bosa
Jack
Buckner
Hargreaves
Elliott
Ramsey
Goff
Wentz
The next group of 5(A’Shawn Robinson, Sheldon Rankins, Laquon Treadwell, Reggie Ragland, Shaq Lawson) have significantly worse composite rankings.
I think it might end up being a player at 8 that some of us don’t like taking at 8(Stanley or Elliott), but arguing that the talent level in the top 10 is a step above seems legitimate.
Wow. Impressive.
I put way too much effort into my 7-round mock draft.
Is lynch really multiple rounds better than Osweiler was as a prospect? I have doubts..
..
Don’t think he has any business going as high as #8…
How high would Goff, Wentz and Lynch be drafted if they were in the same draft class as Mariota and WInston?…. Id bet Lynch wouldn’t even go top 20, and if that’s true, then he has has no business being considered for the 8th pick
They would be pushed down a ‘little’ just because the 5th guy at a position always is going to go later. However thats like saying what if Mariota and Winston were in the Andrew Luck and RG3…. Mariota probably falls to 7-10 range. It is pretty meaningless and is only a function of the fact that only so many teams need a QB.
Lynch is a better prosect than a lot of QB’s that in the past have gone in the 5-15 range… which in my opinion means he is hardly bad value in that pick range.
If Mariota, winston, Luck and RG3 were all in the same draft, I could see all 4 going top 10…. When someone is identified as a special QB prospect, teams are more willing to aggressively try to move up and secure their guy instead of risking him not falling to them … I don’t think 4 elite QB prospects would push one down to the late teens, odds are by #15 at the latest, all 4 would be gone…
..
Yet if it was luck, WInston, Wentz and Goff, im not convinced Wentz and Goff would still be top 10 picks… Maybe one of them, probably not both
..
Is Lynch even as good of a prospect as Tannahill? I don’t see him being a couple rounds better than Osweier was as a prospect…. One or two of these Qbs will end up being a Tannhill/Jay Cutler type pick. talented guy that will struggle to put it together at the next level… I have a very hard time envisioning two Qbs from this class going on to become top 5-10 NFL QBs.
I like Lynch’s size, arm strength and athleticism, but he looks like a douche so no sale.
http://i.imgur.com/i5xn5Co.png
Such a douche. Here he is hanging out with his buds:
http://cdn.skim.gs/image/upload/v1456344277/msi/bsb-wenn_h9coow.jpg
Hmmmmmmmmm, why would you even know this?
I did a search for “boy bands.”
I mean he’s no Tommy Lawlor.
Would you prefer the Amish teenager look
http://media.graytvinc.com/images/Wentz2.jpg
Honestly we haven’t had much luck with guys who look like we picked them out of a corn field so maybe douchebag is the way to go.
good point, worth considering.
http://247sports.com/Bolt/Analytics-study-separates-Jared-Goff-and-Carson-Wentz-44657343
I agree with whoever first stated: “There are lies, damn lies, and there are statistics”. TL, you make a decent pitch for Lynch, but if HR wants him, I think he’ll cut a deal to move back a few spots and get a pick. The remark about “talking yourself into taking a QB” seems applicable to Wentz, imo. The insight into who will develop and who will grow into the position is not one I possess, but Goff is the only QB that I want to see Eagles take at 8. I could understand a jump to 5 or 6 to get him, but not for either of the other 2.
Unfortunate automatic cropping, but good article.
Curious of the date of the write up on Ponder. Just wondering if my thoughts on Cam not being consensus overall until right before the draft were true.
Almost sounds like we should of held 13 and gotten some value elsewhere in the draft on that trade. Seems like both QBs and all of the very elite guys could fall within the first 7 picks.
Of course it could be just because we hold it, but pick 8 feels like a dud. Any chance Lynch falls to our 2nd round pick or late first for a trade back?
If we kept 13 we’d probably be complaining that all the good talent would be gone by 10 or 11 😉 It seems people always want that talent available just before your pick, wherever that pick is (as long as not #1)… and imagine “what if”. And if you have #1, you may fret that this year’s #1 isn’t as good as previous years’ #1s… 😉
I’m sorta hoping that the pick is not a QB — just in reading others opinions the bust potentials seem high — but it it seems like we should get a good prospect one way or another. Sure, top 5 would get a better-regarded player, but we have a much better chance at a difference-maker at 8 versus 13 I think.
Bust potential on any player is always high. Even in the top 10, I feel like you are around 50/50 just to get a solid starter.
Actually, people were saying that when we were at pick 13…
We have no 2nd round pick. (Sam Bradford trade)
Oh yeah.. That makes moving back into late first without moving down from 8 impossible doesn’t it?
Nothing is impossible but the cost (next year’s first) would probably be too steep.
The Rams are lurking at 15 with two 2nds and we had none. If Lynch (or any of top 3 QBs) does in fact end up being their guy then it was smart to get in better position. That may precipitate another move though if they think Rams will move up.
We’re going to move up to pick one.
However because there isn’t a surefire hall of famer QB who will exit stage left in Chicago and hire writers for his induction speech, Tunsil is very good but he could get hit by lightning tomorrow, Ramsey doesn’t truly have a position, Bosa does drugs, Buckner is 24 and loves Chip, Jack has a knee that could implode, Hargreaves is a midget, Stanley may only be very good instead of holy crap good, Elliot love his abs so much that he’s just going to end up doing goddamned situps in his driveway.
So we will trade back, for pick 20 and a 2nd rounder.
Fuck it. Lets just take the safest prospect in the draft, Roberto Aguayo with our first pick.
Glen Gronkowski —> Roberto Aquayo in the 1st.
But there has only been on successful Gronkowski brother in the league right now. The odds are that he’ll be a bust. Pass.
but but but the Eagles need a FB!
Nah fam, Tom Hackett
https://twitter.com/Astonia67/status/711944714270994432
Would you Lynch Howie or merely Goff at him if he Wentz for the wrong QB at 8?
This is funny because its bad. As you intended. Well done.
Well done. I couldn’t get past Chip Lynching us, and it just didn’t come together for me.
Overall, I am pretty open at 8, as long as I don’t have to watch Ramsey-Jack-Goff in front of us.
I’ll go Goff my meds if we pass on him.
We’ll look back and say he Wentz too high.
Bosa keeps yelling DEEZ NUTS for some reason.
I wonder what the LA Ramsey in Jalen.
I don’t think he’ll be able to Buckner the trend of being too tall to be a DT.
Ezekiel Elliot Shorr Parks
We should probably Stanley pat at 8.
I hope the guy at the front of Bleachers isn’t Jack.
Passing on him would just be digging Hargreaves for ourselves.
Don’t Treadwell on me good sir.
Had alot of Tunsil pain before I got em removed
I’ll Conklin Howie over the head if we draft him.
Don’t you know thats against the Lawson?
Rankins all these players is hard.
I know I’ll be sorry to see him Lee.
I’ve had enough of that Eli up in the Apple.
A’Shawn, Two’Shawn. Red’Shawn, Blue’Shawn.
He’s a big boy but does he deserve top Billings.
Brett Brown keeps screaming about transition O “JARRAN”
With a name like Mackenzie you better be as good as Alexander.
Our new set of power tools, white Decker.
We already drafted a firefighter from Baylor, don’t need a Coleman.
Wonder if Floyd prefers darkside or pink as a nickname?
William Jackson III, also the Waspiest guy in Cornells frat.
Vernon ain’t nobodies Butler.
Will Keanu bend over backwards for teams?
Welp, looks like someone got even less done on a Friday than I did. This is a list to be proud of.
This deserves so many more upvotes. Come on people, recognize poetic genius!
Poetic justice..
If this Poetic guy is related to Winston? I hope the Eagles don’t pull another Clay Mattews and draft him.
Wow!
Post of the year. Thank you, Sir.
Genius…. Clapping in my office right now
we could zeke out a few good years from bosa those guys
Yes!
To me, the biggest issue with Paxton Lynch is that his name is…. Paxton. I can’t get past that. Can’t trust someone with a name like that.
Bill Paxton seems pretty OK in my book.
heck, have you see True Lies? he makes that movie.
i wouldnt complain about drafting lynch, unless bosa or wentz was still available
I wouldn’t complain about Lynch at 13. At 8, I would hate it.
id take lynch over stanley and VH3 at 8
well look what we have here:
Round 1 Pick 8: Jalen Ramsey, FS/CB, Florida State (A+)
Round 3 Pick 14: Christian Westerman, OG, Arizona State (A+)
Round 3 Pick 16: Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State (B+)
Round 4 Pick 2: Roberto Aguayo, K, Florida State (A+)
Round 5 Pick 14: Charone Peake, WR, Clemson (B+)
Round 5 Pick 25: Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 13: Kevin Peterson, CB, Oklahoma State (B+)
Round 7 Pick 12: Victor Ochi, OLB, Stony Brook (B)
Round 7 Pick 30: Luther Maddy, DT, Virginia Tech (B-)
A 4th rounds kicker? God please no.
i wouldn’t actually want him there but i knew it would be an a+. however . . . have you heard about this kid? do you remember the score we lost by against the saints?
I do know of Aguayo and how good he is but do you remember one Alex Henery. Came out of college as one of the premier kicking prospects and well we know how that went. Also Sturgis progressed as the year went on and if Parkey can come back from injury strong then he’s is the kicker. I just can’t fathom taking a kicker in the 4th round before, since, and after the Eagles took Henery. Too many chances to hit on a impact player to take a kicker.
i take your point. would you be pissed if he went in the 5th?
I guess I am a little biased but I don’t believe in drafting a kicker at all. Too many kickers you can find out of the UDFA pool that most teams can find one. I would consider spending a 7th on a kicker like Aguayo if this was a SB bound team but that’s it.
can’t fully agree because i also remember how hard it was to find even a serviceable one when we were short.
That is true but for as shaky as Sturgis was when the Eagles first signed him, he really settled down as the year went on. Prime example of getting a guy off the street that can be serviceable. Besides the kicker I do like the rest of your list in that mock.
i’m with you on that. as long as it isn’t glen gronkowski that we get instead
Hasn’t Heath Evans informed you that the only teams that win SBs are teams with fullbacks? Sarcasm aside I definitely agree with you on the no Gronkowski.
but . . . the name
You remember that young Cody Parkey kid? Or the young Caleb Sturgis kid that became pretty solid by the second half of last season?
..
Team with both Sturgis and Parkey better not dare spend a 4th on a kicker
first off i agree that 4th is pretty high. however, we don’t know if our boys are gonna rebound. even if they do, neither was the shit. “pretty solid” = potentially upgradable. it’s not like we’d be stuck with huge salaries and couldn’t get rid of one or both. this conversation really puts “pure BPA” to the test.
Think Parkey was much more than “solid”
..
I sure would hate to have to assume that we need to dump a 4th round pick into a position Everytime a young eagle gets hurt, automatically assume he is damaged goods who can’t possibly regain his preinjury form.
..
I can understand hedging our bets like that at a normal position, but doesn’t make much sense to me at a position like Kicker that you only have 1 roster spot for.
.
Im a strong believer in BPA, but I guess I have to ammend that to “reasonable BPA.. Of course I think positional value and Need gets incorporated in the grading process… For Example, a team like the Ravens who have a young Stud like Tucker probably remove Kickers from their draft board, or automatically subtract 30 points from every Kickers grade
For a generational talent? You can let need and perceived positional importance drive your selection, can you?
Generational PROSPECT… Parkey is a proven NFL kicker, and im perfectly happy going into the season with the winner of a Parkey/Sturgis camp battle.
..
Probably wise to play by different rules when talking about a position that you can only spend one roster spot on…. Do you think Ozzie Newsome will spend a 4th round pick on him with Justin Tucker on the roster?
..
If we have a kicker and punter im happy with, then a 4th round kicker would need to fall to round 7 for me to consider it..
..
You are welcome to disagree or play dumb, whichever you prefer is fine., but I doubt you would spend a 4th round pick on a Gunner or a long snapper, nor would one ever be fhe BPA on your draft board in round 4
..
As great as we think these kids will be, they are only prospects and bust potential comes with each prospect… I doubt there is a punter prospect that would make me want to move on from Donnie Jones, and I think very highly of Parkey, as in a possible eagle for the next decade
Done. Wrap it up.
Other than the kicker and Prescott, get it done.
prescott at the end of the fifth and it’s still a reach? man!
I just don’t like him as a prospect. Wouldn’t be on my board TBH.
as in, you wouldn’t take him in the 7th either?
Correct. Not even on my board.
Yeah I wouldn’t put him on our draft board either.
.
Then again if it was up to me. There would only be two QBs on the Eagles draft board, Hogan and Brandon Allen..
Love hargrave
So, based on our informal Iggles Blitz poll, here is what we have found:
Based on the overall consensus top-10 of:
1) Tunsil
2) Wentz
3) Ramsey
4) Jack
5) Goff
6) Bosa
7) Buckner
8) Elliot
9) Stanley
10) Hargreaves
I asked you to eliminate two and live with the rest, meaning at least one of them will be available at 8. In descending order of eliminations: Buckner (6), Bosa (5), Elliot (5), Hargreaves (2), Goff (1) and Stanley (1).
That would rank the Iggles Blitz draft board as:
(Tier 1) – Tunsil, Wentz, Ramsey, Jack
(Tier 2) – Goff, Stanley, Hargreaves
(Tier 3) – Bosa, Elliot, Buckner
To me, this means that we need to hope very hard that Chip takes Buckner and allows someone from the top tiers to pass.
At 8, I would be happy with anyone on that list except Bosa, Buckner, and Stanley. It would just feel underwhelming.
Don’t understand how people don’t want buckner
at 8 if he projects better to 3-4 i don’t really see the issue with looking elsewhere. i mean 8 isn’t usually where you take a risk for potential value.
SB nation did a pretty cool article Where they collected all The Data from a bunch of differemt mock Drafts’ and they created a pie chart for each team that shows which players are most mocked to each team..
..
for Example the Eagles (not using the actual numbers from the article)
35% of Mocks have us taking Zeke
20% Stanley
12% Hargreaves
10% Goff
8% Jack
7% BUckner
6%’Bosa
2% Wentz
..
And they did a pie chart like this for each team in round 1… Hopefully they continue to update each pie chart every week or so. easy way to see the consensus mock oppinions
That sounds like it could be interesting. I wish you had included a link, or the actual correct numbers, from the article.
On the other hand, a lot of the mocks seem more interested in making the pieces fit than analyzing the teams picking. Maybe I will look for it later.
Yeah I know, my bad,., Unfortunately I saw it like a week or two ago. but I want to see if they keep updating it since a million new mocks are released each week, so when I dig it up in the archives I’ll make sure to post a link under one of your recent posts, unless you find it before I do..
..
It’s cool for the teams early in the draft… Once you get to the 20’s, there are so many different options that you start seeing like 20 little slices for each team… But it’s cool for us, since at #8 it’s not out of control with too many optionss
Here you go gents………http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2016/2/15/10899032/mock-nfl-draft-database-2016-tendencies-experts
Thank you sir
Thanks for sharing
This is really awesome, actually… And I believe the draft has a very good chance of playing out this way. The wildcard of course is trades – if somebody wants to jump up near the top of the draft, it could change things a bit.
I have gotten caught up in all the QB talk (this year feels a lot like last year), but I’m gonna start honing in on Elliot… Looks like that’s gonna be BPA at 8; if so, they either go with him or trade back. I was of the opinion that a RB was not good value at that spot and that there would be nowhere for him to run without a good OL, but for now I’m gonna get used to the idea that he’s gonna be our guy – ie, I’m determined to warm up to him. Hand it to Zeke!!
I would take buckner in a second. Due has top 4 talent in this draft. How can you preach bpa and not want him at 8. Baffles me
Yeah me too. Unfortunately we don’t have a pick in the second.
i don’t know much about him but i’ve read he’d be a scheme fit question?
If your disregarding his talent because if scheme fit your not really going bpa. Think you could find a way to use him in this scheme.
johnnie cochran says if the scheme don’t fit trade out of it. no i guess if he’s that talented he could be worth it but it would suck to spend an 8 on him if he can’t replace logan or graham as a starter by year 2
It is best PLAYER available, not best TALENT available. The best player is the one that performs best in your scheme.
The NFL is littered with very talented guys that fail due to poor scheme fits.
Pstrick cheung eh ?
Damn, the Browns fired 6 scouts so close to the draft… That’s kind of harsh, and why would you Fire guys this close to the draft that probably have some idea of your draft intentions? The Browns new front office analytic crew may be smart, but they better learn to not make the mistakes HINKIE and Chip made, being insensitive to lacking a personal touch.
..
For a team that didn’t even try to retain a young safety like Tashuan Gipson, and let go of another nice safety in HITner, im going to be kind of Baffled if they don’t try and trade Joe Haden… I don’t know how else to interpret their strategy other than stripping the team down to the bones, and try to rebuild the team and the culture with a fresh youth movement. I don’t understand why they would try to use Haden and Joe Thomas as assets flipping them for more picks or younger talent. If they plan on a patient, deliberate rebuild Haden and Thomas will be done by the time the Browns are good enough to really compete
I suspect their setup is that the scouts just file their reports and don’t have access or input when the draft board itself is set. To me, it doesn’t make sense to fire these guys now versus after the draft, but my guess is they think they’re doing them a favor by releasing them early and letting them get a jump on the job market. If their information security isn’t as good as they seem to think it is, they could have issues though.
whats to keep another team from calling up these scouts and saying “fifty bucks if you tell us what the Browns think of [player]”? i guess this scout might not have looked at him, but odds are the scout would know *something*
New set of decision makers, the board is surely “blackboxed” I don’t think you can do a whole lot to get in front of the Browns at 2, and I don’t think they terribly care if teams know who they like in rounds 4-7. So basically you’re calling them hoping for info on who they like in rounds 2-3, and hoping they weren’t fed lies, because they weren’t fired improptu.
The Browns are fools.
This time of year drives me nuts. Even some really smart media members pass along some really stupid rumors… Because D’Brickashaw Ferguson retiring from the Jets, New York is allegedly trying to trade up to #1 from #20 to draft Tunsil? Like really? Great prospect but he better be a first ballot hall of Famer to pay what it will cost moving up 19 spots to the top pick.
I couldn’t agree more. It is so agonizingly slow and silly. I guess it’s to accommodate pro days and visits, but the pain, the blood, and the suffering is insufferable, GG.
Andy wanted d’brickshaw sofa king badly
https://twitter.com/FakeWIPCaller/status/718198656650866688
Does anyone else secretly suspect that Tommy is FakeWIPCaller? If I was working in the Philly media market I’d make it my job to uncover the identity of this brilliant humorist. He’s practically our Banksy.
Extra draft pick if your banksy comment stumps our bretheren
Are you saying most people here don’t know who Banksy is?
Does anyone really know who he is..
lol Honestly you might be right friend. I only know about Banksy from his New York tirade a couple of years back.
His movie is good.. until you ask yourself, “self, was that banksy the whole time ? What?? Whoa a a “
I work nearby one of the stands that was secretly selling Banksy’s paintings in New York, he was selling them for whatever you offer him and I walked right passed that guy and didn’t buy anything. Knowing what I know now about Banksy I would of bought the whole lot and been a rich man right now being that those paintings that people bought for $5 are worth almost $500,000. Yes I kick myself everytime someone brings him up.
Thats fukkkkiin epic !!!
I dont think id have bought any myself either..thinking they r just lnockoffs and id be complicit.
..wher do work?? Apple, bluecrest, brevn how, 9 W 57? I dont think u work at th plaza, apple or tiffanys
Yea friend, just thinking about it makes me cringe. There was a stand by Central Park in New York, I have meetings at the Trump building multiple times a month, where I literally walked past this stand. I didn’t even know it until I watched the news the next day and they had the stand on TV. I kicked myself in the ass so many times for not spending a couple of dollars to buy a nice painting that would of been worth who knows now.
Ahh you pretty much made the right call. Just walking past that is a great memory.
Id regret maybe not barking at the old man for selling fakes… Banksy was watching and filming nearby so if you tried to protect his copyright so to speak then you probably would have met him !!!!
Now id regret that.. but then who weud belive some dude saying he is banksy !
Do know know mode2 ir futura, teist or shep fairey ?
..im on 53 & 3 . Lets meet for a beeer.. germanEagle is nearby also
I definitely know who Shepard Fairey is growing up in and being a fan of the skateboarding scene you have to know who Fairey is. Futura 2000 I also know about because like I said I was very into the SB scene growing up and I heard many times of Futura’s graffiti. I have heard of Mode2 and seen some of that work but I am not too familiar with him. I know he is UK based if I am not mistaken.
…
The both of you are in NYC?..I live in Jersey but work near Wall St. I would definitely catch a drink with a couple of my IB brethren.
Don’t kick yourself too hard, you and so many others passed them up.
I hear ya friend but to be reminded of passing on $50 paintings that ended up being worth hundreds of thousands is a tough pill to swallow. What makes it even worst is that me and my wife have a good amount of paintings around the house and I refused to shell out a couple dollars for some street art.
This is well played.
Lynch at 8 to me confirms Kempski’s suspicion, Lure has much more input on personnel than we realize.
By we, you must mean a few individuals that have not been following anything going on this spring.
I disagree, Dave. You accused me of being a HR hater when I argued that the overtly cozy relationship that exists between HR and Lurie casts a somewhat negative light on the owner. He is discreet to a fault, he doesn’t seek or easily grant media contact. He is diligently attentive to community relations, and keeps most of his football biases behind closed doors….but, his GM, to whom he is unabashedly loyal, has distinguished himself as a quick study AND as possibly a Lurie surrogate. I do not believe that the average Eagle fan has a strong opinion of the owner’s role in personnel matters, but most would probably suppose that it is negligible. He lays low, he eschews the camera to which Jerry Jones and Woody Johnson and Daniel Snyder and Robert Kraft seem to gravitate. You may appreciate that the owner is the top arbiter of any and all questions or disagreements that arise from administrative “collaboration”, but I doubt that most fans even focus on it.
“…but I doubt that most fans even focus on it.”
I’m not sure what you mean by “focus” on it.
Regardless, anyone who watched Doug’s press conference, or read any of the articles written about Doug’s press conference, know Jeff has final say. I assumed Bob’s original post referred to “we” as people who frequent this site, who I believe are very informed. Any fan who doesn’t know Jeff is in charge, is uninformed, by their own volition.
So if Kempski meant uniformed fans don’t know Jeff has final say, then I would agree.
I get it. I read this site regularly, but I’ve only seen one DP pc. I suspect that every fan knows Lurie’s in charge, but how involved he is in the running of his franchise is not, I would contend, all that obvious. If Pederson is spelling that out, then I guess I am one of the uninformed.
I would highly recommend heading over to the mothership to watch his press conferences when you get some downtime before the draft. Although as others have said, he is not an elegant public speaker, he definitely answers every question asked.
Howie and Jeff’s press conferences have been surprisingly informative to watch as well.
I started watching these because too may in the media seem to have an agenda and if I take the time to watch the press conferences, I can draw my own conclusions. Time will tell if Doug’s answers are more about subterfuge, or if he is actually a straight shooter when replying to media questions.
Thanks for that.
Think he’s made it clear that he’s going to be pretty involved in personnel, he said he was going to be the arbitor of any disputes.
How disappointing will everyone be if the Eagles wait until round 5 to draft Kevin Hogan and pass on all the other QBs?
I could care less if we skip this entire QB class. There are some decent developmental guys and Hogan isn’t one of them.
College QBs aren’t becoming better NFL prospects.
Not with every analysis pissing and moaning about the proliferation of the spread offense in college.
I’d prefer to cultivate a BCS National Championship winner.
He’s my favorite qb in the mid rounds so not very!
Dissapointed? That’s my ideal scenario
@ D3FB – I am sure you’ve touched on him before but where do you predict Nick Kwiatkoski going in the draft. Would the 4th round be too high or low?
D3 was pumping that guy up as a future SAM here a few threads ago. I can’t remember what round he said, but I think it was 4th.
Damn I missed his assessment on him. I am a big fan of Kwiatkoski, has played both the WILL and SAM and to me he would be a great addition in the later rounds to a team in need of LBs.
It wasn’t in depth. It was just a quick comment about him in reply to a draft I put up and some complaining about our LB position.
4 seems about right. I wouldn’t be too upset if we took him at pick 79 either. He could step in at SAM very early in his career. Solid range, good physicality, good size, solid in coverage. Ideal backup Sam, and could maybe play some MIKE as well. Only downside is I don’t love his mental processing but he checks all the other boxes and reminds me of Bradham alot.
https://twitter.com/Astonia67/status/712720572162187264
Information always appreciated brother.
Jets are in the market for a new OT – think they might jump up and try to get a guy?
It would cost them a king’s ransom to get up that high from pick 20. More then likely they ship a late round pick to Denver and hold out hope that Clady can be serviceable.
They may trade or they can just wait for a guy to fall to them at their pick. Sprigg and Ifedi are both have huge upside in 1-2 years with good coaching. Seems a poor way to spend resources trying to jump up for Decker/Conklin who are not as good long term LT prospects (although would be better in 2016).
They can just stay at 20 and grab one.
They should jump up and give us a 2017 2nd rounder for Peters after we get two O linemen in this draft.
Is it wrong that one of my biggest issues with Lynch is his hair…which I think we all can agree looks ridiculous. #HighLevelAnalysis
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