More on Zeke
Posted: April 12th, 2016 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 277 Comments »I would be fine with the Eagles spending pick 8 on RB Ezekiel Elliott. Generally speaking, spending high picks on RBs is dumb. RBs can be found all over the place. The difference is that I think Elliott is a special back. To get one of those, you generally have to draft them early.
Benjamin Allbright, a football analyst, went on WIP and said something interesting.
.@AllbrightNFL is reporting that the Eagles are "heavily leaning toward" drafting Ezekiel Elliott.
— Anthony DiBona (@Anthony_DiBona) April 12, 2016
Apparently he went a step further and said the Eagles might even trade up for Zeke.
I would be shocked if that happened. Beyond shocked, whatever that is. I like Elliott quite a bit, but you just don’t sink a bunch of resources into a RB. And I think Howie Roseman knows better than to do that. This rumor feels like something the Eagles are pushing to try and get teams distracted from all the QB talk.
I still have my money on the Eagles taking a QB with pick 8.
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There are a lot of games being played by teams with Top 10 picks. The Titans want to move down. The Browns want to move down. The Eagles want to move up. Dallas wants a QB. Or a RB. Or a defender. The Eagles are set on a QB. Unless they go RB. The Titans can’t decide between Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley. And so on.
None of us knows what the heck is really going on.
Don’t get too fired up, good or bad, by the rumors. You’ll hear one guy say the Eagles have a deal in place to move up to number 2 and then a couple of days later you’ll hear the Eagles are definitely moving back.
You want to know the truth?
Just hurry up and wait.
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Someone asked about Connor Cook, the QB from Michigan State. I have him rated as a 3rd round guy. He has the potential to become an NFL starter. I just don’t think he makes enough smart decisions for a guy with his amount of experience.
I do not like the fact he skipped the Senior Bowl. It would have been good to see him play in that environment so we could compare QBs to QBs in a like setting.
Cook has NFL potential. I just think there are some holes in his game that shouldn’t be there for a guy who played in the system he did for as long as he did.
My Top 5 QBs
1 – Jared Goff
2 – Carson Wentz
3 – Paxton Lynch
4 – Kevin Hogan
5 – Connor Cook
Cook is easily a more talented passer than Hogan. I just happen to think Hogan sees the field better, reads defenses better and is a better decision-maker. Those are huge factors at QB.
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Do not get too fired up about the rumors that Fletcher Cox turned down a mega-deal from the Eagles.
We have no idea if this is true or not. We do know the Eagles want him. We do know that Cox wants to stay with the Eagles. I tend to think something will get worked out eventually.
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Some guys are likely to eliminate Goff from consideration due to hand size. Wouldn’t be that shocked if he were available at 8.
You know what they say about big hands……….. Well, Big Cox, says it means large mittens.
I’d love to see Goff here with the 8th pick.
Yeah seeing his tiny hands, average arm strength throwing in Rainy windy freezing Philly weather in January is a dream come true…. He sails balls too much playing in California, can’t wait to see him lead us in Jauary philly weather
Nkemdiche’s hands are impressive. When you watch him run the 40, you see these enormous looking hands flopping in the wind.
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This draft scares me. I worry that it will be like 2013 where teams get better players from the teens to end of round 1 than what the top 10 teams will end up with….sure hope not
A lot of so-called guarantees in the NFL aren’t.
I agree with your top 5 Tommy and I think the argument can be made to switch 4&5 or leave them both tied for 4. Cook is talented, unfortunately he’s also an ass. On another note, my friend and I were arguing about Prescott. He said the league is going toward the read option and Dak is perfect for it. Not only do I see limited athleticism, but reading a defense, keeping eyes downfield and throwing with accuracy and anticipation are all lacking.
Your friend is cheering in the death of Western Civilization. He shouldn’t do that. Please no more read option in this league. I think you for speaking against this nonsense. Especially with Prescott.
Yeah, who is your friend, Xerxes!?
I was worried about Umayyads, but Persians can also be troublesome.
How sure can we be that Ezekiel Elliott is worth #8 when he only really played one year?
What are you talking about he had two big years. Am I missing a joke?It’s actually fairly optimal. Some complain when backs get used up. And he hasn’t even turned 21 yet and he was there 3 years. Do have to vet out the heavy party rumors.
Oh, I thought he was only there one year. I was in a fugue state for most of 2015.
But what about his father, a former player that moved to Ohio with him? Seems like a potential Lindros situation.
I guess you were haha. I think he had two years of 2,000+ combined rushing and receiving yards.
Pederson is a player’s coach. Duce can handle it. We have a strong staff and team. If they couldn’t take a back like him at 8 and run him a lot that’s on them.
But I don’t necessarily think he’s their top guy. I could live with him. I wouldn’t be jumping up and down but I feel the same about Stanley and VH3.
That’s how I feel about Elliott. I don’t understand taking a guy that high if they aren’t making him the cornerstone of the offense.
If we draft Zeke, won’t be long before we start feeding him 20-25 times a game
350-400 carries in a season? Seriously?
Last back to do that just got dumped by the Eagles because he was ruined.
It seems to me that every player turns down a deal as long as he doesn’t accept the teams first offer. It’s just part of the negotiation process. My question is when are we going to stop lending credence to crappy reporters.
Never… Shitty reporters sure Eat off of us…,
If Goff/Wentz are gone at #8, do the Eagles take Lynch at that spot? I know he doesn’t have a high first round grade, but if they think he’s the guy, and they don’t want to leave it to chance to move back – do they pick him?
I have a feeling Wentz and Goff (based on the talk) will both be gone by #5.
The only thing that is certain is that, if Lynch is the pick at 8, people will lose their minds. “We should have traded back!” “Muh value!” “ESPN gave us a B- on that pick, Howie sucks!”
I wouldn’t give an F about ESPN’s grade, but Lynch isn’t worth it at 8.
Aaron Rodgers wasn’t worth an 8 either. It’s impossible to know what happens to any of these prospects once they enter the league. If he’s the guy they want, they have to pick him at 8. He’ll definitely be gone by the 3rd.
And if Rodgers didn’t land in Green Bay where he could sit behind Favre and work on his arm strength prior to taking a real snap in regular season game; he might well have been a bust.
sure. it seems not long ago, just a few months, Goff was the golden boy prize, and Lynch was the rising underdog threatening him as first QB picked, until Wentz came along. There has to be the chance that they actually like Lynch better than either Wentz or Goff, have him as number 2 perhaps.
I hope not. Lynch isn’t a top 10 player. Too risky of a translation from the Memphis slop to the NFL.
So if Wentz, Goff and Lynch are all gone, should we just spend the 8th pick on Cook? Drafting a QB just to draft a QB is a terrible idea…. If there is a guy that you love, target him… But to just settle for the best QB we could get is foolish.
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Lynch has no business going #8
“…but you just don’t sink a bunch of resources into a RB”
I’d also contend that you don’t sink #8 into a RB unless he’s Tomlinson, Peterson, or possibly Gurley. Elliot isn’t as good as any of those 3.
You’re right. Question is, where would Gurley have gone last year if he didn’t have his injury problems? Gurley was a strange evaluation, because he’s the closest back talent wise to AP, but at the same time, a RB with a injury history in the Top 10?
Elliott doesn’t have the injury problem, which is a good thing. It can start anytime, but it helps if it isn’t there yet. But Elliott also isn’t as talented as Gurley. Which isn’t a knock on him. If you compare QB prospects to Andrew Luck you’ll never pick up a QB. But Elliott picked higher than Gurley a year ago would feel strange nonetheless.
Another thing I think people underestimate: Gurley can play, he showed it to the NFL world last year. Like really play ball. But if he gets a season ending injury again, who knows if he’ll ever be the same? Maybe this time around next year, we’ll say: stupid Rams, how could they take a injury prone RB at 10? He played great for one year, but the Draft is for the long run.
It is hard to compare where players go year to year. It depends on the quality of the players and the order of the teams. Gurley bgoing a few picks higher than Elliott doesn’t mean anything.
Not in your opinion. The Eagles might feel differently.
I think he is a legitimately great prospect. Worth a high pick.
I do feel differently. I think Zeke is that rare, great prospect. A couple years from now, when he’s got several Pro Bowls under his belt, no on will remember if he was taken at 8, 13, or 80.
If Zeke has the talent to go on and be a top NFL bell cow RB who a team can feed 20 to 25 times a game, than it will be worthy of the 8th pick
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But Zeke has to become an elite RB to validate a top 10 selection….. I do think he is special enough to have a chance of becoming that top NFL RB..
Very fluid runner, great balance, great vision, runs with Power, does Not lack breakaway speed.. polished Blocker, solid WR…. To me. He is one of the special RBs that we don’t see in each draft.
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There are a couple kids I want more than Zeke, but if they arent available when we pick, but if not, I do expect Zeke to have a career worthy of the 8th pick.
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Id love to see a 1-2 power punch of Zeke and Ryan Mathews running behind Lane and Big daddy Brooks… Think it would be great for Bradford, and go a long way fixing our time of position that chip butchered
What makes Zeke so rare is a lack of a glaring hole in his game. The guy can literally do it all, which is why I love him as a target at #8. I’m fully expecting the Eagles to walk out of this draft with a RB who they intend to be the long-term starter; there’s no way they’re satisfied with the combination of Mathews and Sproles. Zeke is the playmaker the offense needs.
As for Hargreaves, I’m with you, I wouldn’t be ecstatic about that pick. The kid has some good ball skills, but the Eagles should definitely go with a blue chip prospect on offense.
I’ll have to remain in disagreement with you on this. I just don’t see a guy who is special enough to warrant that level of investiture.
if you(not you specific) were ok with Zeke at 13, then there’s no reason to pass on him at 8 just because ‘he’s not a top 10 talent’. IMHO, If Pederson is a branch from the AR tree, the Eagles aren’t going RB. I’d be shocked if he’s their pick….
Great point. And for the record I would also not be into him at 13. 18 to 24 ish………..seems to be where I’d like him.
Same about a qb unless you’re really sure he’s a franchise guy.
I don’t think anyone is ever sure about any prospect. There’s always a risk. And there are always other factors to consider like value, etc.
Especially having seen the recent analyses of how much better the odds are to win big with a first round QB, it looks to me like it’s a risk worth taking at 8 for goff, wentz, or even lynch. Hopefully we won’t be this high in the draft again any time soon. For the same reason and if he cost isn’t prohibitive, I’m for trading up too if needed. If we can score any of these qbs at 8, that’s a win to me.
I completely agree with you, there is no sure thing in the NFL. That’s why a team better be as close to sure as they can before they bet the farm. I’m just not the high on any of the qbs in this draft and, with my fingers crossed, I’m hopeful the Eagles qb of the future is already on the team.
Wentz or Goeff yes. Lynch no. You can coach up the first two, but a head case is a head case.
Which I am about Goff and mostly with Wentz, but not with Lynch.
Legit opinion. If they draft a qb, I will be in his corner because he immediately becomes our guy. Plus, nobody should listen to me. I didn’t boo the McNabb pick but I didn’t like it.
And what’s funny is the whole McNabb / Williams thing in terms of how it worked out is why I’m really gun shy on Elliot vs Goff.
I had wanted the Eagles to take Williams. Sheesh, uou’d think I’d have learned my lesson.
uh oh, tommy talking about something ben allbright is reporting, jimmy bama gonna be feelin some sort of way!! lmfao jk
he’s going to butthurt for sure….
Good thing those new black leather chairs at the novacare complex media lounge are soft…
i wouldnt be mad at zeke, wents goff or even lynch at 8.. id be feeling.. meh… about stanley or hargreaves tho
I don’t have a really high opinion on any player say after the top 5. If there are 6 to 7 players that are ranked 1B, pick the best one for a need. I just want someone to come in and not only compete for playing time, but has an actual shot at starting. I don’t want a player who’s going to ride the bench for 2/3 years unless he’s a qb.
Yes. Yes. If we continue to stay within the top 8, if he’s not a qb… Give us a day one starter. Hence zeke fills that objective quite nicely. Of course Jack and Ramsey, and Bosa even would too! My BS meter thinks only one of the Ohio State prospects was all into party drugs and I hope we have the opportunity to take the one who wasn’t into it. The move out story temds to make me think it was Bosa… He then was the one who moved out. Methinks if I was the wrongdoer, I would get the boot out of a shared pad too.
Im sure there are a ton more prospects that partied in college than the ones the media knows about
True. Maybe that story is blown out of proportion. Curious nonetheless. Will they both stay in top 10?
Definitely top 10 selections. A lot of scouts and media members blow downsides of a prospect out of proportion. I wouldn’t even acknowledge the partying and the drug usage. If it were an issue, there would’ve been failed drug tests reported by now. It’s just a bunch of offseason BS talk.
You have to acknowledge the partying and drug use. If they are doing it now, what will stop them from doing it when they get to the league and have millions of dollars in their pocket?. Not saying that it will happen but you definitely can’t just sweep that under the rug like it never happened.
Yeah, doubt teams care as much if a player pops a Molly every once n a while if they go out partying.. Ecstacy isnt a type of drug you can do every day and even stand a Chance of functioning as a normal human being… Unless it’s like an addictive drug that a player deals with every day, teams Probabky DONT care as much about an occassional party drug… Think they care much more about you being responsible and not failing drug tests like a moron when you know you will be tested ahead of time..
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It’s the lack of responsibility as a professional when you fail a drug test that teams hold against you…. Unless it’s an every day addictive habit
I don’t think Albright was reporting that. He shared a Tweet from @CowboysNation that said Todd McShay thinks they have a deal in place to move up for Zeke.
what is “that”?
and who is “they”?
I believe this this is the that and they
https://twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/720000397838974976
Allbright is Kempski?
Journalist on journalist crime calling people out on Twitter makes for an amusing lunch hour.
Very Big difference between in the Eagles sharing with Albright the trade compensation from a completed trade with the Dolphins before they made the compensation public, and the Eagles sharing our true draft plans with Albright.
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Albright even admitted that his Eagle source got mad at him for releasing the compensation to the public when he did… Yet a month later, not only is his eagle source sharing our Draft Plans with Albright, but the Eagles source is ok with Albright making our draft plans Public? Yeah ok….
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Probably more likely that our source fed Albright a true story giving him the scoop on trade compensation before anyone else, so that a month later Albright could return the favor and spread some BS counter Intel for us during draft time.
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Eagles scratched Albrights back feeding him an exclusive story, and now Albright scratches the Eagles back..
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Most of what the media “finds out” this time of year is exactly what a team wants them to “find out”… In what world will a team give a reporter our draft plans so close to the drafts and be ok with the reporter sharing it with the public?
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so tired of NFL silly season. The draft needs to get here ASAP
If you like Fletcher and don’t like Eskin, from BGN: http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2016/4/12/11414142/fletcher-cox-eagles-todd-france-rips-howard-eskin-wrong-careless-bad-contract-wip
I don’t think Howie drafts Zeke, based on his own precarious position and value-savvy practices in this past.
The risk-reward is just totally out of whack. Draft any other position (except kicker/punter obviously), if your pick lands anywhere on the bellcurve of at least solid starter, that’s a fine pick. If you pick a RB who is merely solid, at 8 you are sunk. There are just too many solid RB’s that will come out of the draft, and who are already in the league. You have to have a gut feeling and be very certain that Zeke is a a slam dunk. That just doesn’t seem like a Howie sort of thing.
I’m not saying having a strong gut feeling that Zeke is special is wrong, or would make a bad GM or anything like that. Just saying that would be atypical of Howie, especially since he isn’t working for a coach like Chip who might pound the table for a great running back, and I don’t see a Reid disciple being all about the RB.
Any player who busts at 8 costs the same.
A great back who touches the ball 25 times a game and is a threat to bust it every time, even if only for 5 years, is a nice reward.
A solid starter at 8 is about par for the course.
A bust is a bust, no matter what position. The best thing would be a HOF QB or LT, but if that’s not available, then you pick something else.
Yes a bust=bust=0 value regardless of position. But a middling running back doesn’t equal a middling safety, or a middling pass rusher in value. My point is a solid starting RB has next to no value whereas a solid starting…anything else does. The margin of outcomes where you can still get reasonable value from your pick is much smaller when you pick running back.
Yes. But in the end, you have to choose who you think’s going to be good and what fits your team.
do you have to do it like that? Find someone you believe in with your gut and pull the trigger? Bet everything on 1 outcome. That’s a Bluechip player, he is going to be a probowler, that’s what I believe he will be, that’s why I am picking him. That’s one way. I’m sure many go that way.
I’m not sure that’s how Howie does it. Knowing there are any number of outcomes a player may be. Is BPA THAT different from picking a player with the highest expected value?
WWBD? what would Belicheck do with the 8th pick and not sure who his long term QB is? He would likely never, ever take a RB.
No way in knowing. He would go defense almost automatically. And then just sign a bunch of undrafted offensive players and watch Brady turn them into something. Belichick has an easy job.
flip side is, “who would draft RB’s in the top 10” with a 10 year span for relevance. Rams Bengals Browns Chargers Raiders Vikings Saints. Mixed bag I suppose. Honestly, imo only the Vikings nailed their pick. AP has been carrying that team to mediocrity for years. He’s like the offensive version of JJ Watt.
I cannot disagree more with that statement. The Vikings did absolutely nail the Purple Jesus pick and he most certainly has carried that team, but the important part is mediocrity. If All Day cannot carry a team, no RB can, and Elliot sure as shit isn’t Adrian Peterson. The reason for the Vikings hopes in the future has jack shit to do with All Day, it has everything to do with their defense and Teddy B.
DO NOT DRAFT A RB IN THE TOP 10! Actually, dont draft a RB in the first round, it is never the best option. Teams literally bring in guys of the street with a week to practice and get results, yet 99% of the times no RB carries an actually good team challenging for the title.
I don’t think we disagree THAT much actually, I don’t think we should take a RB at 8 either.
But let’s keep the expectations for a draft pick in perspective. If JJ Watt can’t carry a team to greatness, no non-QB can. We can’t use that as a realistic barometer to gauge value. If either AP and JJ Watt re entered the draft, and AP went back to his prime with the fountain of youth, you would absolutely take them at 8 (neither would be there to pick though). I think we’re generally on the same page as far as whether we should draft a RB at 8. But if you are sure he is an AP caliber player so much that you want to put your job on the line, well we’ll see, I wouldn’t, but we’ll see.
I’d much rather add JJ Watt to our defense, than Adrian Peterson to our offense, and thats the case for almost any position. Most players of that caliber at any other position > that caliber RB.
I’d even take a solid above average starter at CB over an HoF RB with our current needs. I’d take Sheldon Brown before his prime over All Day at a similar time.
RBs in no way translate to succes in todays NFL. No RB in this years playoffs averaged over 100/game. Yes yes, play-off defense and all, but funny how we hear Manning was so bad this year, yet people forget that the Broncos rushing offense sucked ass too. Alfred Blue was the most succesfull rb in terms of yards/game and the Texans got fucking shut out.
People love to bring out Marshawn Lynch on the Seahawks, and admittedly he might be the exception proven the rule, but I have made the argument before that when it comes to the Seahawks their succes is first and foremost that defense and secondly the play of Russell Wilson. Certainly, having Lynch helps that play, but Wilson changed that offense, not Lynch which will be proved by the fact that the Seahawks will still be good with Lynch retired and them winning the SB will depend on their defensive play and their OLs ability to protect Wilson, not how well Rawls can replace Beast Mode.
Every single team in this years play-offs was there because of their defense and or their offense in general, no team was carried by their rushing attack while being mediocre in all other aspects of the game and its been that way for a long time. Which is impressive since more than a third of the league makes the play-offs.
A rushing attacks helps tremendously. Can mask a weak OL, help take pressure of a QB, control the tempo of the game, wear down a defense etc. but no matter how good it its, the proving point perfectly made by Purple Jesus, you’re not going anywhere if solely relying on a running back. Which means, do not fucking draft a running back in the top 10. EVER! Because if Adrian Petersons play couldn’t do it, it won’t happen because his play in the NFL has been as good as it gets.
I guess if you had a perfect team with no needs, neither current or in the future, you could do it. I supposed the same reasoning is fair when it comes to a kicker. We’ve seen how important and game deciding kickers can be, but dont take a kicker in the top 10 either unless your team is perfect in all other areas.
Vikings and Texans have had equal amounts of playoff success in recent years. They look terrible when their running back was hurt, all of those mid round guys, including chris polk, were terrrible. Took a pass rusher over a QB when they were picking #1 now looks like a huge mistake.
A great defense have had much better succes than a great rushing offense in recent years. And not so recent years. At least when it comes to actually winning the Super Bowl.
A RB can’t carry a team, anymore than heroball Kobe ever carried the Lakers anywhere. It’s a team game. A top RB is very valuable, if used correctly. If the organization thinks it can ride him to the playoffs, it’s wrong.
I’d argue that RBs are the most important in January. Look at the playoff / superbowl teams winners had running backs getting first downs and tds in big games.
Think AP had more TDs than Bridgewater.
never said they could, nor that we should expect any player to. Said the opposite in response to Patrick a half-scroll down, actually.
I wasn’t disagreeing with you.
Problem with your thesis is…the Patriots never ever pick in the Top 10….
Easy to say when he has Tom Brady. He didn’t even win a Super Bowl with Brady for 10 years.
Meh. I don’t know that I agree with that.
PATRIOTS RELEASE FORMER FIRST-ROUND PICK DOMINIQUE EASLEY,
Sorry I had to do it, timing was perfect.
http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/patriots-release-former-first-round-pick-dominique-easley
You should never, ever draft a RB in the first round.
Even “special” running backs aren’t worth first round picks. I wouldn’t draft Adrian Peterson with a first round pick if he was in this draft.
You simply don’t win in the NFL with running backs. They’re purely complementary pieces in the modern NFL. Look at two recent examples of supposedly “special” backs: Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley. Despite being the best at what they do, how much of an impact on their team’s win-loss record have they had?
Peterson has never won a playoff game outside of two games in which Brett Favre was having an MVP season as the Vikings quarterback. Todd Gurley’s team was one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last year despite his presence on the roster.
You might say, “well, football is a team sport and the RB can only do so much”. That is exactly the point! The RB isn’t important enough of a position to impact the win-loss record. A great QB can single-handedly drag a mediocre supporting cast to lots of wins, but even the most special of RBs can’t!
And of course, good-to-great RBs can easily be found with lesser resources. Look at the Seahawks, which are known for their running game and defensive dominance. Did they spend first round picks to acquire their RBs? No – Marshawn Lynch was a cheap pickup in a trade with Buffalo. Look at the 49ers teams under Jim Harbaugh. They were using 3rd round pick Frank Gore. If you have a great defense, you can win with the running game, but you certainly don’t need to invest premium resources into the RB to make that work – you can find your RB in free agency, or lower in the draft, or in a trade.
If the Eagles draft Ezekiel Elliot with anything higher than a 2nd round pick, they will be making a drastic mistake.
one could argue that rams would have the first pick w/out todd gurley.
According to Footballoutsiders DVOA database, the Rams actually had the 7th ranked defense last year. With a defense that is above-average like that, they were no where near as bad as #1 pick worthy.
Their offense completely dragged their team down DESPITE having a “special” RB. Their passing game was atrocious, but again, if a team has a special RB and a well above-average defense, and they still suck, shows you how little the RB actually matters.
Your argument sounds more like you’re arguing that QBs should be over-drafted versus having a strong argument against 1st round RBs. There is no doubting the impact of a good QB has. Finding anecdotal situations where great RBs were on bad teams isn’t a convincing argument. True of any position in football.
When you look at the potential impact of a RB on your offense and
goes beyond just rushing – passing game both as a pass catcher and in pass
pro, a great running back can be a foundational piece to your offense
and be the engine that makes it go. And defenses will have to scheme for it, which opens the rest of your offense.
When you look at the history of NFL MVPs, other than QB, overwhelmingly they were running backs. Though many RBs do have a shorter shelf life, not all do – Emmitt Smith played for 15 years. Adrian Peterson already for 9 (8 if you take out the suspension year) and he still rushed for almost 1,500 yards last year. 8-9 years is a pretty long career for any position, and he’s still at the top of his game. To say you wouldn’t draft a fresh-out-of-school Peterson with a 1st round pick is a bit ridiculous.
Yes, there are good RBs who weren’t first round picks (Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook come to mind). But the 3rd round is littered with failed RBs, too – Tony Hunt and Ryan Moats comes to mind. No guarantee there either. Yes, you can get by with non-exceptional/more one-dimensional backs, but if you have a true playmaker, one who’s electric with the ball in his hands, one that can hit a home-run on any given play, one that is on the field for three downs, one that the defense is scared to death of, I don’t know if you can dismiss that b/c you’re waiting for the second round to come.
What we’re trying to do is find the correlation between positional value and impact on the win-loss record. We don’t care about yardage records or MVPs. We want to find the best draft strategy to build the winning-est team. Throughout history, you find that the TEAMS that WIN are the ones that invest draft resources into offensive and defensive linemen, quarterbacks, pass-game-affecting defensive backs, and pass-game-affecting linebackers. Those are the primary positions that a team should be drafting in the first round if it wants to maximize its chances of building the winning-est roster.
We don’t care if a RB has a chance to be good. Even if a RB is Adrian Peterson – your best case scenario – the effect on your win-loss record is not as substantial as the best case scenario for nearly every other position, especially quarterback, linemen, defensive back, etc. And that’s in the rare situation where you actually have the best case scenario – the chance that a RB, no matter how good in college, actually turns into Adrian Peterson is LESS than for any other position’s best case scenario.
A few things:
First, I’m not arguing that we SHOULD draft a RB, just that it shouldn’t be ruled out if it’s a special talent. Adrian Peterson is a special talent, and to think he hasn’t affected the Viking’s winning percentage more than most other players on that team is not intellectually honest. The Vikings were a playoff team last year – you think they’re one without him? Yes, they had a good defense, but to diminish what he did isn’t right. And you can’t compare a whole defense with the RB position, not apples to apples.
Second, I’m not sure the formula you mentioned is really that uniform. Although I tend to agree that good teams have good players at those positions and that those positions are important, I’m not sure that says that much. You’re also referring to a number of positions, yet RB is just one position. In a vacuum, a RB can’t win a championship, but neither could a linebacker, or a defensive back, or edge rusher (singularly). That’s not how football works.
Third, if you’re looking for a correlation between winning and positional value, what do you think an MVP is?
Fourth, even if we assume that positionally those are more important than RB (which I don’t fully buy), your argument for drafting those positions ahead of RB in all cases in the first round leads you into decisions like drafting Marcus Smith because an edge rusher is critical to winning or that “missing piece” or Danny Watkins b/c our line would be complete with a guard. Not to diminish those positions at all, but you have to weigh talent with positional value to make the best selection. A RB with off-the-charts talent shouldn’t not be ignored in favor of a lesser edge rusher.
The difference between the positions is that a stellar rush linebacker can transform a defense – see Von Miller, Lawrence Taylor, Bruce Smith, and such. A stellar defensive back can also transform a defense – see Earl Thomas, Ronnie Lott, and the like. A stellar OT can transform all aspects of an offense – see Jason Peters, Orlando Pace, etc. A stellar RB only racks up yardage, which does less to contribute to wins than what a stellar pass rusher or stellar offensive tackle can do to contribute to overall wins.
Additionally, another key point is that these *stellar* players at key positions are rarely found outside of the top half of the first round of the draft. Much more rarely than close-to-stellar and even fully-stellar RBs. You can find excellent RBs everywhere in the draft and in free agency, and even if you don’t get a stellar one your offense can be amazing with just an above-average RB. There are few amazing defenses without stellar pass rushers and/or stellar defensive backs, and those players are much more frequently selected with high first round picks, and fewer are available as “finds” like the RBs are.
You trippin brah.
I agree with what you’re saying friend. To add to what you’re saying of the 7 RBs that went over 1000 yards last year 3 of them weren’t 1st round and of those 3, Devonta Freeman was the highest drafted of the 3 being a 4th round pick.
Freeman – 4th Round pick
Chris Ivory – UDFA
Latavius Murray – 6th Round pick
Of the other RBs that looked impressive last year, there were many that were later round picks.
David Johnson – 3rd Round
Lamar Miller – 4th Round
Thomas Rawls – UDFA
Just food for thought for everyone feeling that it is necessary the Eagles draft a RB in the 1st if they want a good one. Good RBs can be found if the team does due diligence.
I’ll give you credit for making a really sound argument, but I still disagree. Getting a franchise qb settles all arguments, of course, but I don’t see one in this years draft. Maybe one of the big 3 will turn out to be The Man, but I’m not buying it with my #8 pick. Also, Zeke is more than just an especially talented runner, he’s the complete package because he can also block and catch. There’s a lot of moving parts to an NFL Offense, and a guy like Elliot could force D Coordinators to scheme in a way that benefits the qb, line, and wrs. I guess statistically it’s wiser to avoid taking a rb in the 1st round, but I think we’re looking at a rare talent in a draft where none of the touted qbs shouts out Andrew Luck.
Plus, to stick to my other opinion which I hope everyone will forget when I’m wrong, I’m optitmistic we already have a serviceable qb on the roster.
RE: First round QBs
So, I’ve been rethinking what it means for the team that first round QBs are generally present when teams go deep in the playoffs or win the Superbowl.
We look at the numbers that some bloggers have been posting and then at the big names and say, “Sure looks like we need to spend a 1st to draft an elite QB.”
But especially after a short exchange I just had with PPK, I’ve started to think maybe this logic isn’t quite right. There’s obviously always a risk in drafting anyone. Drafting a QB in the first round means that you’re looking for elite talent, but if you end up with good enough talent, that might be ok. If you go down that list of first round QBs who have gone deep in the playoffs, very few are “elite” like Rogers. There are the Flaccos, Ryans, (Eli) Mannings, and even Alex Smiths who can be good when the right team is around them and things fall their way (especially in the case of Eli).
All this is to say that I’m even more convinced now of the need to draft a QB in the first. The odds are certainly better of getting an elite player. But you’re also increasing the odds of getting a guy you can work with if you do other things right. And that’s fine–it’s just part of playing the odds. So, if you’re not convinced that Wentz or Goff or Lynch, or whoever can be “elite,” it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re not worth a first round pick…
Very interesting to see Kevin Hogan in TL’s top 5. I’m a fan his. He’s my favorite QB prospect, actually. He’s easily the drafts best QB on the mental side of things, but needs a decent amount of seasoning as a passer (mainly his mechanics and throwing motion).
I could easily see Pederson using Hogan in the way that Andy Reid uses Alex Smith. With short-passing, clock-eating madness while giving him the freedom at the line of scrimmage that made Alex Smith one of the most productive QBs in ’15. Hogan is the most pro-ready QB mentally, not physically. His throwing motion is a bit weird, looks like Philip Rivers’. But I like him a lot. He has some upside, and if groomed properly, he could be an effective starter behind a strong running game (which is why I think Zeke makes some sense at #8).
His success in big games cannot be ignored. And a 36-10 record is nothing to sneeze at. He also led the Pac-12 in short-intermediate accuracy at a 76.7% completion percentage. Can you say, #Sleeper?
Tommy, will there be a piece on Hogan soon?
I like Hogan as a backup. I don’t think he’s great mentally though. Don’t get me wrong. He’s good but he drove me crazy. He’d make great plays and then really stupid plays. He also had McCaffrey last two years who was wide open and whose running took a ton of pressure off Hogan and a lot of games he didn’t throw much.
So I don’t know how much stock I put into: short-intermediate accuracy at a 76.7% completion percentage. It’s fair to tell the stat but I’m skeptical of his accuracy if you’re asking him to be a big time passer is all I’m saying.
His arm strength was inconsistent until this year. This year he was better. It was also reported he was trying to change his delivery.
Wishing for Alex Smith as your starter that can lead to problems. If you don’t have better choices it’s one thing. Bradford is potentially a little better than Smith if healthy. Don’t get me wrong if they don’t like the top 3 QBs (I like them even though not one is a sure thing answer.), I definitely think Hogan is on their radar as a 3rd/4th round pick if his throwing motion looks good.
I agree with you on his arm capabilities. That is a big knock on him, but I place value on his ability to touch pass and his quick decision making. In terms of schematic fit, he fits the Eagles bill to a tea. I think Hogan has the upside to be more than a backup. He won a lot of games, and consistently made plays when it mattered most, i.e Iowa game, Maryland game. He’s a guy that would be worth developing.
I also agree with you on the Bradford/Smith point, both are similar, while Bradford has more upside. Hogan compares to both guys in terms of skill set, but let’s point out that Bradford and Smith entered the league a step behind due to the college spread offenses they played in. Hogans experience in the WCO gives him an advantage not many QBs have these days: to be able to focus more on mechanics and physical limitations than to quickly adapt to an NFL offense that runs nearly identical concepts to what he ran at Stanford. You can’t develop arm strength, obviously, but to your point, his improvement on his throws was indeed evident last season. He may lack zip and velocity, but he can make all the throws. That proves that the kid is still a work in progress.
I’m not saying Hogan is worth a high draft choice and deserves to play right away, nor am I asking for Alex Smith 2.0 (heavens, no), but he is a very good project option in the mid-rounds. And if developed the right way, he could be a stud player. The Eagles have the luxury of going this route thanks to Bradford (who I think is bound to breakout anyway) and Daniel at QB.
doesn’t Elliot cross off three boxes at once?
we need help protecting the QB, he can block really well.
we need help at WR, he a really good pass catcher.
we need a playmaker, he is ZEKE.
oh yeah and we need a RB too.
Seems I’m in the minority but I’d be very happy if they take Elliot with the 8 pick for all the reasons you state.
I’d prefer taking an OL, but we aren’t even inviting any to visit. When you pick high you either have to take a pass rusher, a qb, or a tackle. Can’t underestimate having a marquee guy at those positions — even more true if we were in 34 defense still where OLBs are really hard to find.
Assuming we have enough 43 pass rushing, i think we do, the tackles are gone, then i’m fine taking Zeke. Is this class of QBs better than any other year? Doesn’t seem like it. Seems like there are decent guys that people project as starters b/c they are good this year. Win/loss records aside tommy made a point about passing stats / efficiency stats, etc. For these non-powerhouse school guys i’d want to see a qb putting up huge numbers or leading their teams to bowl games, etc.
I’d rather take wentz, but I doubt it happens
I’m the most naive and gullible person alive and I laughed out loud when I read the first tweet quoted in the article.
Tommy, when are you finally going to change your banner and put BRADFORD up there?!
He knows deep down that if he put Bradford up on the banner that he would have to change it next year when Bradford isn’t on the roster.
Then, he better put up a safe bet for roster security like Taylor Hart, Jerome Couplin, and Matt Tobin!
If you want a safe bet, then one of the people on the Iggleblitz Rushmore better be ROSEMAN!
Let him just put a huge picture of Lurie and Roseman and call it a day.
http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/article/media_slots/photos/001/783/601/5124b84341d07c9c16acc8b44d1890a9_crop_exact.png?w=650&h=432&q=85
lol Good stuff.
The NFL just announced that there will be an announcement made soon detailing when the schedule for next year will be announced.
The poor electrons used to convey that information probably thought they were destined for so much more important tasks in life.
Fret not, friend: Electrons are immortal.
this is way too deep for a workday
Probably so. As we sit at our workstations, we forget we our substance comes from nuclear fission at the heart of stars that explode, and then coalesce to form brighter, hotter stars, and then explode again–over billions and billions of years. So what was first hydrogen becomes carbon and oxygen and then the more complex trace elements necessary for life. And we are all stardust.
Knowing this doesn’t help us make a buck, unfortunately.
just one big cosmic poop, bro
So you are saying some of my subatomic particles may have once been part of sewage, or worse, a Cowboy fan?
It is indeed possible that some of your substance, either subatomic or at the molecular level, could have once partly composed a semi-sentient creature analogous to a Cowboy fan in a civilization that preceded us.
or the Galactic Ego known as Cthulhu Jones
Also where does the billions of stars worth of matter go that makes a black hole…
Billions of years? Umm, Earth is only 6000 years old. Nice try.
Not even!
It was Bishop Ussher, one of whose titles was ironically “Primate”, who first figurated that date, using the unimpeachable method of Bibleology.
I believe he used the associative property of “begats” in that calculation.
What goes around, comes around. Unless it’s a neutron.
They are at 8 and say they have 8 guys they could take there . Unless blown away by another offer to move down a spot or 2 they take best player available at 8. It will be an upgrade no matter what.
Jordan Hicks confirmed that he will be the MIKE next year. Was there ever a question?
So does that mean Barwin will be the SAM?
(I kid . . . just looking for a 1,500-word exposition on why anyone who asks that question is a “DOnkey.”)
HEEEEeeE HaAWwwWW
that just broke me up!!!
many upvotes
OF coaRse it Brooke you UPPP!
ITs THE BEst jokE eVer tolD! Cant’ beLIEve the siLly meDia would eveN say otheRwords. what a bunch oF LOsahhhs. I dont beLIEve Howie would disAGEre. If ThiS is ProVen to be wRong aT a laTer Date, do not WorrY I wiLl spenD the next 1500 wOrds slOWlY hedging MY BeTs to giVe mYseLf an out!
MaTT Burkley aka woof woof aka cali king aka McDREaMy is going to be A STuD! It jusT dAT he AINT bEEn giVen No CHUNCE! OnLY QB gunNA be BEtuhr is FoLES!
Coach –
That was so moving I’m crying!!!
the spelling . . . the caps . . . the arguments
choice material
I’m too old to be able to read this.
Not enough made up nicknames for players in there, for my taste. Close, though.
Nick FOles? do you mean the RAin mAKer?
funny ACV, just posted this over at 24/7 (sorry dont post here often)
.
talking about who’s backup MLB-assume for now Goode(?). look at the current LBs on eagles roster
Bradham-SAM, hoping he can regain form
Hicks-60% injury rate
Kendricks-he’s good for 3-4 missed games
Goode-he was teamless for a good part of last season
Hepburn-???
Skinner-beileve he’s more of a rush LB type
.
makes me hope Jack falls to 8, or even 5.
I think you’d get the full treatment, not the short-form 1500
So we’re not trading him and Cox along with half of Philadelphia to the Titans for Wentz? Well shit..now Kempski is going to rag on Allbright again.
no it’s for Marrriotta.
Only questions is if he stays on the field for 16 games.
Re: 20 Years of Top-10 RBs and Their SB Appearances
In the past 20 NFL draft, 18 RBs have been Top-10 selections.
Those 18 RBs cover a total of 143 player-seasons . . . and just two (2) SBs.
2015 (10th pick): Todd Gurley, Rams – 0 SB appearances
2012 (3rd): Trent Richardson, Browns – 0
2009 (9th): CJ Spiller, Bills – 0
2008 (4th): Darren McFadden, Raiders – 0
2007 (7th): Adrian Peterson, Vikings – 0
2006 (2nd): Reggie Bush, Saints – 1
2005 (2nd): Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – 0
—— (4th): Cedric Benson, Bears – 0
—— (5th): Cadillac Williams, Bucs – 0
2001 (5th): LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – 0
2000 (5th): Jamaal Lewis, Ravens – 1
—— (7th): Thomas Jones, Cardinals – 0
1999 (4th): Edgerrin James, Colts – 0
—— (5th): Ricky Williams, Saints – 0
1998 (5th): Curtis Ennis, Bears – 0
—— (7th): Fred Taylor, JAX – 0
1996 (6th): Lawrence Phillips, Rams – 0
—— (8th): Tim Biakabatuka, Panthers – 0
I wonder how many teams who own top-10 picks then go on to appear in a Super Bowl within the short time frame that a RB is in the league for.
Look at the teams who drafted these guys.
Not very many. (3 total)
Exactly.. even if you looked at the teams that didn’t draft a RB but picked in the top 10 (actually most of those picks are better than 7th overall), it’s probably not many that appeared in the Super Bowl shortly after. They are picking that high for a reason
Then the question becomes, which position has a sufficient impact on a team to move it from a Bottom-10 to Playoff team?
Besides QB?
It’s not RB.
+1
If I could divert a little, isn’t the question which position has a sufficient impact but add: where the difference between who can be drafted in the top 10 versus elsewhere is also great.
It’s not just the RB’s don’t help as much, it’s also that time has proven that later picked RB’s can also be quite effective.
For the sake of argument, we can’t conclude it’s not rb without analyzing the data on all positions.
To be fair, though, if a team is picking in the Top 10, they’re already bad; it does follow that they would tend to have fewer SB appearances no matter who they picked…
However, this is pretty compelling evidence that a superstar RB won’t turn your team into a perennial contender, even if they are deemed “special.”
BC:
Totally agree. Looking at that list, these are some bad franchises — with a few exceptions.
The Rams got turned around a couple years after selecting Phillips — but for no reasons connected to him.
The Ravens have been consistently good.
The Chargers couldn’t get past the Pats (or Jets).
That’s about it.
Bad teams stay bad for a while in this league.
Maybe the lesson is, if you’re drafting in the Top 10 . . . it’s because the problems are more than at RB. So don’t draft one.
The lesson IMO is that draft picks are overrated, both by teams and fans. I know of no draft pick that elevated a team from loser to contender. Maybe Peyton. QBs touch the ball on every offensive snap; RBs the 2nd most. Draft picks are about hope, a valuable commodity for a GM to sell to fans and owners; and cheap contracts.
Great points .. RB’s that can block, decoy and catch also.. and sell jersies are draft worthy at 8 … im starting to hope we draft ez-kill
There aren’t 10qbs every year.
There’s rarely 1, right?
So i think the argument you’re making is that only QBs maybe Pass rushers should be picked in the first half of the first round.
would be interesting to compare to other positions to see if there is a pattern. I was musing on this earlier, came to the conclusion that while bad organizations tend to spend a high draft picks on running backs, there is also an overwhelming bias for bad organisations to have to 10 picks as well, wasn’t able to come up with anything conclusive. Would have to put in a good bit a research to compare them to teams who opted not to take the running back in the top 10.
Agree.
It’s the kind of data that should be floating around.
OTs, DEs, CBs, etc.
Are there premium positional picks (Top 10 picks) that correlate, at least, with Bottom-10 teams finally moving up?
seems like QB, pass rusher, OL are most valuable, assuming you have decent coaches.
I’d hazard to say the pats wouldn’t be nearly as good at this point w/out bb running the show.
yeah it got my head spinning pretty good before I decided it would be a futile endeavor for an amateur statistician like myself to attempt. There were a few angles I was considering, but I was wrestling with the idea it may require data from so many years to have a meaningful sample size that you start drawing data from a time with questionable relevance, IE how far back do you have to got to compare 100 top 10 RB’s to 100 top ten OT’s or DE (and I hadn’t even worked out a system for good pick vs bad pick). What was football like in the oldest 50 top 10 RB’s vs the most recent 50 top 10 RB’s? So then what constitutes “modern football” where the value of positions could be considered relatively constant, how big of a sample size can we get in that time span and OH NO I’VE GONE CROSS EYED!
Correct me if I’m wrong but only a few of those teams were legit playoff contenders?
Seems that bad teams drafted RBs . . . and stayed bad.
With a few exceptions.
Ravens (Defense)
Colts (Manning)
JAX (Brunell)
Chargers (Brees/Rivers)
Saints (Brees)
I think that all it’s saying is bad teams are afforded the opportunity to draft running backs highly and not much else. Kind of a correlation but not causation thing.
Peak Brees and LT would have been way too terrifying.
This says exactly everything in needs to on a possible pick of Zeke at 8.
Is that different than any other position?
oh, someone else already brought that up
Many of these had grest careers that we wud want
I like the pass catching ability of Elliott. This team is desperate for WR talent, so any help they can get with pass catching would be a great start. Friendly reminder that Nelson Agholor was the worst WR in the NFL last year, followed closely by Huff. Even Jordan Matthews should not be considered anything other than a mediocre #2.
which is why I prefer we target RB CJ Prosise (former slot WR ) in the 3rd or 4th round and go with another position in the 1st.
Im starting to pray we draft ezekiel .. can run, block and catch… can he play D ??
“Moron Zeke!”
Is this article an insult to Zeke!’s intelligence, or just the people that want to draft him in the top 10 this year?!
The best RBs are the most “instinctive.”
GermanEagle, you need to talk with your people…
“Moritz Boehringer, a receiver for the German Football League’s Schwäbisch Hall Unicorns,…”
The unicorns? Really?
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/13/nfl-draft-2016-who-german-prospect-moritz-boehringer
I’m compelled to re-post a paparazzi photo that caught “The Unicorn” in training
http://www.storiediscienza.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Annex-Karloff-Boris-Bride-of-Frankenstein-The_06.jpg
Intriguing prospect. Became a Vikings fan watching AP on YouTube.
On the plus side no one has ever killed or defeated a Unicorn.
Also the league has a couple of odd names.
Berlin Adler- I have no clue what an Adler is. Perhaps it’s named for Alfred Adler? Naming a team after a nineteenth century psychotherapist is odd.
Kiel Hurriances- I was unaware Hurricanes were a thing on the Baltic sea. Will probably start a team in America called the Nebraska Earthquakes.
Marburg Mercenaries- These guys are sure to be big players in FA. At least they are blatantly honest.
Hildesheim Invaders- JEEEEEESUS. This is just uncomfortable. Even Dan Snyder thinks these guys lack self awareness.
The NFL schedules outreach games in London and Mexico City. I wonder if the GFL does something similar. I could see Mercenaries/Invaders in Jerusalem getting a lot of attention
Adler may be German for Eagles, actually. Apparently their national soccer team is nicknamed die Adler
That is correct, Adler=Eagle
Shall I re-name myself into ‘DeutscherAdler’?! 😉
The fact that I passed three semesters of college German is no small miracle.
Also it’s confusing because everything else has english names.
If it had been the horsemitgrossenhornjawn instead of unicorn or the Kiel windytimegustyrainandnogoodahhhhshithalp I would have expected it.
Again, no clue how I passed three semesters and was offered the right to study abroad in Bremen.
¯_(ツ)_/¯
Don’t tell me you declined this prestigious right to study in Bremen?!
Sadly it was fall semester or full year. Didn’t really work with playing football. My buddy did it and had a great time though.
Also as much fun as it would have been to do a full semester of behavioral economics, the thought of doing it all in German would have been insane.
Lol
PFF 10 most over rated prospects.
hackenberg
Willie Beavers
A’shawn Robinson
Darron Lee
Kevin Dodd
Germaine Ifedi
Deion Jones
Braxton Miller
le’Raven CLark
Taylor Decker
..
Kiper most over rated: Lynch calling him a raw talent who will be over drafted
.
McShay: Kevin Dodd Clemson DE,
Maybe I should move Lynch up.
Interesting. I am biased, but I like Decker, I think he has the tools to be a good tackle in the NFL. Not a real high ceiling guy, so nothing like an All-Pro, but I can see him having a decent career. But yeah he might get drafted too high for what he brings to the table.
There’s a certain RB who isn’t on there.
Wonder if Howie has any interest as a flyer but he’s an injury mess.
PATRIOTS RELEASE FORMER FIRST-ROUND PICK DOMINIQUE EASLEY
The No. 29 overall pick out of the University of Florida, Easley only played three games in his final season with the Gators because of a torn right ACL. He tore his left ACL earlier in his college career.
Easley was having a productive 2015 season with the Patriots as a penetrating pass rusher before a quadriceps injury suffered against the Texans in Week 14 again landed him on injured reserve. The quad was a new wrinkle given that Easley’s 2014 season was cut short by a knee injury.
It was a definite dice-roll by the Patriots when they selected Easley. There was near-unianimous agreement that he had top-10 talent were it not for the injuries, but the injuries are seemingly more of a pattern than isolated incidents.
http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/patriots-release-former-first-round-pick-dominique-easley
There must be something more to him being cut besides his injury history. In saying that if there are no off-field red flags and the money isn’t absurd then the Eagles should definitely be interested in him. He could backup Cox.
Boston Herald guy
Jeff Howe
@jeffphowe
Easley’s knees are in pretty bad shape, and there’s not a lot of room for improvement, per source. Still stunning timing for his release.
NewEnglandSBLI @NewEnglandSBLI 1m1 minute ago
@jeffphowe no injury settlement, tho? This reeks.
if knee situation is degerantive probably wasn’t worth 1st rounder’s salary. ad to hear, if i had 2 ACLs before the pros i’d probably look at an insurance policy.
Yea dude was an asshole.
Interesting from Barnwell. I guess he took a break from fluffing Eli to write about something else.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15193220/players-clearly-best-nfl-draft-prospect-their-position-often-live-nfl
I miss Grantland, used to go there daily for literally everything they offered lol.
A lot of the stuff was good, but it was far too often under-complimentary of Philly teams relative to other publications.
yeah, Barnwell was generally didn’t like talking about Philly, good or bad. Rarely had much to say about our games in their weekly podcasts. Robert Mayes was pretty cool though. Pretty much the first national media guy I know to catch onto the “holy crap Fletcher Cox is a monster, he needs to be in the probowl” about when we did.
But I really miss their culture guys too. No idea wtf I am going to do to unpack these damn crazy Game of Thrones episodes this year.
I’m excited for the new season as well, but bummed out that Martin said a lot more of the stuff is going to be TV only and not make it into the real story line from the books.
those guys are doing a show on HBO recapping and analyzing each episode. Might be right after GOT.
I know it is a Bill Simmons thing, like Grantland was, but the specific guy who hosted the good ones was Andy Greenwald, researching…
Omg yes he will be Co hosting with Chris Ryan (meh). Hopefully they can get Jason Conception involved (they call him the Maester for being so knowledgeable on the books and having a knack of explaining it)
Thanks for sharing this!
Excellent research: Median Top Draft Position: 119th overall pick
Highest-Drafted Outliers: Sebastian Janikowski (2000, 17th overall pick, +102); Mike Nugent (2005, 47th overall pick, +72); Nate Kaeding (2004, 65th overall pick, +54)
Fans of Roberto Aguayo rejoice! I have to admit that I suspected kickers would look particularly dismal by this sort of analysis, but this is a relatively solid group of specialists, given that Sebastian Janikowski is still playing 17 years later and Nate Kaeding was one of the more accurate kickers in league history. Janikowkski has generated 53 points of Adjusted Value, identical to fellow first-rounders Todd Heap, Ike Hilliard and Jason Campbell, which isn’t bad for a kicker. Even Mike Nugent went on to have a solid professional career after failing to be particularly impressive with the Jets.
Janikowkski has always been fun to watch.
Fan speak mock using CBS’s board. Took Goff at 8 with Zeke there. Martin with playing guard in mind. Shepard is here so I can hopefully get rid of Huff. Williams is a RB who I like in terms of talent and value. I was put onto him by some stuff I heard from Greg Cossell. Ioannidis, Schobert, Shell, Sims, and MacLain are all depth hopes. Schobert and Sims should at least contribute on special teams right away.
8: R1P8 QB JARED GOFF CALIFORNIA
77: R3P14 C NICK MARTIN NOTRE DAME
79: R3P16 WR STERLING SHEPARD OKLAHOMA
100: R4P2 RB JONATHAN WILLIAMS ARKANSAS
153: R5P14 DT MATT IOANNIDIS TEMPLE
164: R5P25 OLB JOE SCHOBERT WISCONSIN
188: R6P13 OT BRANDON SHELL SOUTH CAROLINA
233: R7P12 CB LESHAUN SIMS SOUTHERN UTAH
251: R7P30 G ERIC MAC LAIN CLEMSON
And a trade down happy, no chance in hell, first-pick draft.
Round 1 Pick 10 (NYG): Jared Goff, QB, California (A+)
Round 2 Pick 9 (NYG): Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State (A)
Round 3 Pick 14: Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas (A+)
Round 3 Pick 19 (IND): Chris Jones, DT/DE, Mississippi State (A)
Round 4 Pick 2: Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas (A+)
Round 4 Pick 18 (IND): Darian Thompson, FS, Boise State (B+)
Round 5 Pick 14: Kevon Seymour, CB, Southern California (A)
Round 5 Pick 25: Joe Schobert, OLB/ILB, Wisconsin (A-)
Round 6 Pick 13: De’Vondre Campbell, OLB, Minnesota (B-)
Round 7 Pick 12: Daniel Braverman, WR, Western Michigan (A)
Round 7 Pick 30: Caleb Benenoch, OT, UCLA (B-)
CBS’s MS-DOS style formatting has me picturing guys in single bar face masks and woolen socks joining the team.
Washington signed Greg Toler
http://www.profootballrumors.com/2016/04/washington-to-sign-greg-toler
Touchdown Agholor.
Shocked that a guy who doesn’t know who he’s allowed to touch or not at one college commits a rape at the next one. BUM
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/13/baylors-shawn-oakman-arrested-on-sexual-assault-charge/
Ladies and gentleman, introducing the next generation of Dallas Cowboys….
CBS Sports Insider Jason La Canfora reports the Patriots decision to release DT Dominique Easley was off-field related.
That’s funny.
Would you trade Cox for Gronk and a pick?
In a heartbeat.
I wouldnt. Gronk knees might be worse than bradford and we might pick ms2 again … pay tge known entity that we drafted and be happy about spending the moola on home grown
I’d take that chance since Cox is clearly banking on more money unless he’s being a total bro and waiting to see if Bradford stays next year.
The notion that Cox would be too expensive is silly. No matter how big the actual numbers, with an increasing cap, the contract will be no problem. If it were Chip negotiating, I’d be worried, but not with Howie.
Cox wants more money, but it’s not going to be something that cripples the team.
I think the eagerness to trade Cox is insane. The whole point of the draft that we’ve been talking about for months is to maybe get a player like Cox, to maybe get a player worth a big contract. Now that contract time has arrived, why balk? If you want a team with stars, some of those stars are going to get paid. You can’t win the Super Bowl on a series of soon-to-expire rookie contracts.
What eagerness? No player is untouchable. Maybe some of you guys still have PTSD from Reggie White leaving but Cox isn’t on that level. Cox is a very good player but please he’s not a Von Miller, Aaron Donald, or JJ Watt.
Of course no player is untouchable. But Cox is quite simply the best player we’ve drafted in years, since probably McNabb.
Cox is a VERY young player for being as good as he is. He’s only getting better. He’s certainly at or above Aaron Donald’s level. He’s a notch below Watt and Miller, right now. Not only is he an exceptional player, he’s still got more ceiling. If we’re comparing him to someone like Gronk, Cox has incredible upside along with incredible current production. Gronk is great now, but you don’t know how he is without Brady and you certainly have to worry about how many years he has left.
I just don’t get the urge to ship Cox out. I can at least understand it for a top 5 pick. What’s even more insanely stupid about this proposal is that the Patriots don’t even have a first rounder this year.
You can argue that Cox isn’t even a top 5 DT due to how many good DTs there are right now.
Aaron Donald
Suh
Geno Atkins
Gerald McCoy
Kawann Short
Marcell Dareus
I get that you might be banking on Cox reaching higher levels by playing in a scheme that suits his strengths (that will be used against him in contract talks) but still he just isn’t worth the money. I like homegrown talent as much as everyone else but one DT doesn’t make the team or a defense. I doubt that Brady made Gronk. Gronk is the star playmaker on that team and clearly demands so much attention from opposing defense.
You could try to make that argument. You’d fail. There’s a reason why, when Cox’s contract numbers started floating around, people didn’t say, “whoa, that’s too much for that guy!” Compare to Olivier Vernon, for example, whose contract was far beyond what he is worth, by all accounts. Cox is widely respected throughout the league, and most definitely better than Short, Donald, and Dareus (last year). He’s unstoppable and is only getting better. He’s exactly the kind of player you sign to a big deal.
You can doubt that Brady made Gronk. You’d again be wrong. Gronk is great, but playing with Brady makes everyone look lights out. Ask Edelman, Dion Lewis, Welker, and the many others whose numbers he’s padded. That’s not to take anything away from Gronk as a player. It’s just that his otherworldly numbers become merely really good when he’s not playing with a top 3 QB of all time.
And Gronk is notoriously injury prone. He is certainly a playmaker, but the star playmaker is Brady. Always has been.
While you claim that Gronk demands attention from the opposing defense, it’s absolutely NOTHING like the attention Cox demands from an opposing offense. Let alone the fact that DT, especially one with serious pass rush ability, is 100X more valuable to a team than a tight end, even a playmaker. Jimmy Graham was at least as good as Gronk for NO, and they didn’t have a problem moving him.
If you think that Cox is expendable, or that Gronk would mean more to us than Cox does, then I suppose there’s not much else to talk about. I can through as many facts (contracts prove the value of DT, Cox’s statistical level of play, Cox’s play on tape, Cox’s age and injury history) up at you as I can and you’ll respond back by repeating the same opinions (Gronk is better, Cox isn’t as good as other DTs based on ?) over and over, and no one is the better for it.
That’s really just your opinion on how the DTs rank. Player opinion doesn’t earn you a bigger contract but play on the field does. Honestly I don’t even know why you brought Vernon up besides that being an example of what not to do with Cox. What numbers? The fake ones that his own agent shot down? There were people that started balking at that too. Last year was Cox’s real breakout year and he could be still growing as a player. People forget that he’s been in the league for awhile and might be nearing his ceiling pretty soon.
First of all, Gronk is a hypothetical. I only brought him up since the Cheatriots lost Easley and could load up for another run. I don’t know how much the Cheatriots would value Cox but any other stud player that is locked into their contract + a first is a very valid offer for a guy like Cox. Cox is expendable just as Suh was expendable for the Lions. DT is not QB/LT/CB/DE importance. You can live without a $100 million DT. I would be hesitant to even give Cox McCoy/Dareus money since those guys aren’t making their teams consistent playoff contenders.
You’re making a lot of incorrect assumptions:
* People had hypotheticals on Cox’s contract before the supposed “leak”. The “leak” was in the ballpark. People are laughing at it like they were with Vernon.
* I brought up Vernon as an example of when contract numbers are thrown around and people say, “that’s crazy”. No one’s saying “that’s crazy” around the Cox hypothetical numbers because he actually plays like one of the tops at his position.
* The idea that a 25 year old DT might be hitting his ceiling soon is ludicrous.
* Your hypothetical fails out of the gate. The Pats don’t have a first rounder this year.
* Cox and Suh are apples and oranges. I was waiting for you to bring this up. Suh was expendable because there were a lot of issues around him. Dominant player “BUT”. Lots of buts. Dogging it on plays. Tons of personal fouls with associated suspensions (taking him out of games). He was/is a troubled player; you see similar issues in Miami. Cox has no such issues. Hard worker, team guy, etc. etc. Players like Suh get let go. Players like Cox do not, at least, not by smart teams.
Hypotheticals are fine. Your value on this one is way off kilter. As is this notion that somehow Cox is expendable. Anyone can be moved, of course, but that doesn’t make moving them not a dumb fucking idea in some cases.
Who are these people throwing out contract numbers? You keep floating this idea around but provide no numbers to back it up.
Uh no. DL doesn’t have the longest life span in the NFL. Do you see any DL dominating pass the age of 30? Surely we’re not signing Cox to a deal shorter than 3 years. Cox is 26 this year and 27 the next. If he doesn’t peak soon then he might already be peaking now.
Suh is still better than Cox right now. Whether the margin between those two closes is merely hypothetical.
If you think you have a better trade scenario then be my guest to throw one out there but it’s highly likely to be dumb as hell too. Who trades for a DT? No one.
Paying Cox QB money seems fine with you since you’re rating Cox almost as high as more dominant players. I’m sure a lot of people aren’t ok with that even for a homegrown talent.
I love Cox (heh) as much as you do but no way is he better than Donald, let alone “definitely better”
Pay the home grown talent fan . He’s our Eagle
There’s a line that I won’t cross even for Cox.
True .. i wudve paid trotter, dawk, TO, shady, foles, desean, too much
Hell no. Unless they have a top 5 pick, which isn’t happening anytime soon. No way in hell an often injured Gronk is even close to the player Cox is. Throw in a couple more picks, total of maybe 2 firsts and a 2nd, and MAYBE you’ve got a deal.
Can’t tell if that’s sarcasm or not but a yearly all pro, best player at his position, and one that will go down as one of the best TEs in history isn’t on the level of a player that isn’t even the best at his position? I love Fletch but that comment is full of homerism.
Gronk is a great player at a position that doesn’t have nearly the value that Cox’s does.
I could go on for ages about why Cox has more value to a team than an often injured tight end whose numbers are heavily influenced by playing with one of the top 3 quarterbacks of all time. I could also show how yearly all pros at tight end can see a drastic cut in numbers when they move to another team, by pointing at Jimmy Graham.
But instead, look at the franchise salaries for those positions, then look at the contracts they have either recently signed or are about to sign. There’s a HUGE difference between them, and there’s a good reason why. End of story.
Without meaning to be harsh, that trade proposal is simply one of the dumbest I’ve heard in a long time.
I’m pretty sure Insomniac asked that question just to have conversation. You mention Graham and I can mention Suh. Hell even players at DT that have gotten paid have fallen off after the contracts like Suh and Dareus. I get what you’re saying but anyone can come up with specific examples that exemplifies their point. Its my personal opinion that I would trade Cox for Gronk.
Well, then all I can say is that I’m incredibly grateful to the football gods that you don’t work anywhere near the Novacare center.
And I am truly thankful that you don’t either.
Instead of trying to out-snark each other, how about we let the community upvote the “thankful” posts here from each of us. As a sort of poll.
Upvote my post above if you think trading Cox for Gronk and a non-first-rounder-this-year is incredibly stupid. Upvote TD if you think it’s a good idea.
There, now we can stop wasting time agreeing to disagree.
Throw in Gerald McCoy too while you’re at it. It’s nice to have a very good DT but they are hardly worth the fat contracts.
Scheme matters. Think the SEA argument is prescient b/c they traded an OL and a first to get Jimmy G and he did nothing before getting hurt except cost them a ton of cap space.
You started with scheme matters then mentioned Graham doing nothing. Wouldn’t Graham be considered not a scheme fit for SEA’s run heavy offense?
That was my point. Graham went to a bad scheme no production. Suh, and others go to a bad scheme, no production. Suh in detroit was worth the money. Even in the game against Miami he single-handedly destroyed our OL.
Oh sorry about that pal I read your post wrong.
Destroyed Kelce.
Who didn’t abuse our interior OL?
Graham won’t make nearly as much money as Cox will though.
Do you think Gronk is going to be as good with Bradford as he is with Brady? That is sonething you are missing.
I am not missing that point at all, you can ask that about a bunch of players so it’s difficult to answer that question. Would Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison be who they were without Peyton Manning? Would Emmitt Smith be who he is without running behind one of the best olines in history?
Would Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison- no, that’s why it’s blasphemous that Marvin’s in the HOF and TO isn’t.
To me can’t trade a TE for a pass rusher.
So apparently Johnny Manziel was the passenger in a car that was involved in a hit and run accident. Who came to his rescue to pick him up?..Good ol Josh Gordon. You really cant make this stuff up. Manziel clearly does not give a rats ass about playing football and will live off his rich parents forever. Josh Gordon is also just a complete moron. The league is trying to give him a chance being that his main issues have been marijuana related but doing things like picking up a known idiot after a hit and run is just dumb. The league needs to suspend him indefinitely and be done with him and Manziel.
Dumb & Dumber.
If i’m Cleveland i’m trying to get Josh Gordon out of LA, seriously why would you go to LA, probably should be chilling in salt lake city. Josh has to realize that people only like him b/c he still has a chance of getting back in the league. Once that’s gone all that free shit is over and he can make a plaque for himself with those 14 game stats.
Hey I go to SLC often, and there is trouble to be had there too. But I get what you are saying, not the same level as an LA.
Yeah, just hang in Park City
http://www.tmz.com/2016/04/13/johnny-manziel-alleged-hit-and-run-josh-gordon/
Idiocy is contagious I guess
Manziel might be a possible star in ‘Drunk and Drunker’
I hope we pick some good players.
NFL schedule will be out tomorrow night; time to plan the fall!
For me to justify taking Elliot I would only be satisfied if he turned out to be Adrien Peterson level, as opposed to possibly still getting a very good RB in the draft this year or next and spending #8 on a high level prospect.
Just my take.
#8 on a high level prospect – Isn’t Easy E a high level prospect. He certainly looked high level when he was running through people in college and people were saying oh man, i wish he was on my team.
Who else do you want at 8 if the Qbs are gone, and the OTs are gone?
He dominated Alabama and Oregon in last year’s college playoffs. Zeke is the real deal even if the OSU OL was as good as some people claim it to be (which I doubt).
As far as the OTs im not high on Stanley, and Tunsil will be gone. Despite the injury i think Jack could be a special player so I would definetly go with him. Other then that I would trade back and get a 2nd.
And if that trade doesn’t come…
You could state “what if” for just about every scenario in a draft. My bet is that there is a team out there that would be 100% willing to trade into the top 10 in the draft.
EZEagle Elliot !!
Lotta Johnny Manziel talk lately. Now Drew Rosenhaus has fired him. He’s the first client ever to be fired by Rosenhaus, & he’s the second agent already to drop him.
Rosenhaus fired T.O. Or I guess ignored him long enough that T.O. stopped calling.
Scott Bischoff
@Bischoff_Scott
Hearing rumblings about a top SEC corner failing a drug test at the NFL Combine. Working to find out who, but I think I know.
In responding to comments, he said he thinks it’s Hargreaves.
Ouch.
Wonder if Howie would now say “There are 9 players that really stood out to us”…
Ugh. Once again, failing a combine drug test is the equivalent of putting your hand flat on top of a red hot burner.
That’s not helpful.
As long as it’s not Zeke failing a test, it’s ok 🙂
Drafting Zeke especially trading up for him:
http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/stupid.gif
Kobe sure knows how to walk away in style.
Magical day for basketball and the state of California. Warriors break the all-time record for wins, Curry sets most likely an unbreakable record and arguably the second best player retires.
2nd best what?
yeah – let’s not get carried away….
I honestly can’t decide if you think that is too low or too high.
I know this thread is dead, but Kobe is not one of the best 15 players in NBA history. He might be the second best shooting guard, though.
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