Balancing Act
Posted: November 9th, 2016 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 100 Comments »Doug Pederson is building the Eagles for the future. He’s also trying to win now. That makes for one heck of a balancing act.
I wrote about that, as well as some game observations, in this column for PE.com. Think about what’s going on with the Eagles. There are 10 first and second-year players that are contributing so far. That is a lot of young guys. It also complicates things when they can’t lean on veterans as much because the veterans are still learning the offensive and defensive systems. Knowing the playbook in theory is one thing. Putting it into practice in a live game setting is very different. It takes reps in practice and games for players to perfect their roles and learn the subtleties that truly make a scheme come to life.
When Lane Johnson got suspended, the Eagles gave his job to a completely unproven rookie. Compare that to the Vikings. They had OTs get hurt and ended up signing veteran Jake Long to come in and fight for a job.
The Eagles had a chance to trade for WR Torrey Smith last week. They decided to keep their picks and not take on his salary. They also get more of a chance to see their young guys in action. I know some of you think that is insane, but the Eagles want to have a really good idea of who and what DGB, Bryce Treggs and Nelson Agholor are by the time this season is over.
Agholor is not having a good year. No one disputes that. Teams just always fear giving up on an early pick too soon. Look at RB Melvin Gordon. He had a poor rookie year. He then started slowly this season. Something happened and he just had the best 2-game stretch of his career. It looks like the light finally came on for him. I’m not trying to sell you on the notion that will happen. The Eagles just want to make darn sure Agholor has to be replaced before they do it.
Treggs looked good Sunday. Now the test is to see if that was a “beginner’s luck” kind of thing or just a sign of things to come. His speed is legit, but one game is just one game. He’s got to show more. DGB started the season looking so good, but didn’t have a good game Sunday and had some costly drops vs Dallas. We’re starting to see why the Titans were so ready to give up on him. He still has great size and big time talent. You need more game action for him to show what he can be counted on to do (or not do).
This is the year for the Eagles to find out about these players. Next year there will be real pressure for the team to win.
Dealing with the growing pains of new/young players, new coaches and new schemes isn’t fun. You love change when it works, but hate the times when things don’t go so well. You just have to understand that what is happening this year is that Pederson and his staff are laying the foundation for the future.
Let’s compare that to some other situations. Todd Bowles is in Year 2 with the Jets. His QB, RB and star WR are all over the age of 30. He’s got some serious veterans players in that lineup. The Jets are 3-6. They have 4 losses by 10 or more points. That is a team with some serious issues. They have coaching, GM and player questions to deal with.
Gus Bradley is on pace to be the 2nd worst coach in NFL history. He is 14-42 as coach of the Jags. His franchise QB is a mess and their defense (Bradley’s specialty) has been awful throughout his tenure. Bradley is gone at the end of the year. Can Blake Bortles be fixed? What does that defense need? They’ve invested picks and money, but don’t have good results.
The friggin’ Packers are 4-4 right now. They have Aaron Rodgers. They have good receivers like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. They have the right Matthews brother. They have Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, a terrific young FS. How the heck do the Eagles have the same record as those guys? As mad as you might be about the Dallas loss, the Packers lost to them by 14 at home. Ugh…
Trying to flat out “win now” is tough. Balancing that with also building for the future is a real challenge. I think Doug Pederson is handling that well so far.
*****
I will write more about some of his decisions and strategies in a different post. I don’t like everything he does, but he’s trying to be consistently aggressive and build an attitude with this team. That could pay off in a big way in the future.
Could…
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[…] Tommy Lawlor Doug Pederson is building the Eagles for the future. He’s also trying to win now. That makes […]
I have no problem being aggressive but the play calls were a problem.
I didn’t like the first one (QB run)- giants had that sniffed out all game long. I didn’t mind the Sproles call- for the most part he picks up the 1 1/2 yards needed.
I’m not in favor of any called running for the QB.
Except for a sneak at the goal line or similar short yardage plunge, as far as I’m concerned
Why? That’s obviously a strength that Wentz has over most QB’s in the league, why not exploit an advantage? I agree it’s not something to overuse, but look at the added dimension to the offense.
JPP had the zone read sniffed out all game long. Say what you will about the Giants, but their d-line had a decent day against us.
One of the bigger backs between the tackles likely would have gotten the first both times. It’s a lot easier to push a hole with the OL than trying to beat the defensive pursuit around the edge.
I don’t agree with your assessment on the first play, the Giants had that pretty well defended. However, I think you are correct on the second play; Sproles usually converts, but there’s no doubt in my mind that a little extra beef in the back field would have helped tremendously
Why even have Mathews on the team if they won’t put him in to get us a yard. As long as it’s not the 4 qtr he should get that call
Not sure, gotta ask Dougie Fresh about that one.
Having rookies and veterans all learning new systems happens with every coaching change although many don’t want to hear it. It’s sad that this fan base has to constantly be reminded. Also that a couple of exciting games by a newcomer do not a season make. Finally, Long has done nothing for the Vikings so far.
Funny is before the 3-0 start, people was predicting 6-10 record and now we are playing as a 10-12 win team (underlying stats), while starting a rookie QB who has terrible skill position help
‘Fun fact’:
The Eagles are 4-4 and still have the third best point differential in the NFL. Let’s get rid of Doug then… *smh
I think its a new record for Philly. Wanting the HC fired after half a season where the team is playing better than predicted
It is funny, but do a large % of people feel that way, do you think?
You tell me?
The fact that its even on one of the biggest radios in Philly tells you everything.
*shrug* I don’t believe in polls anymore.
Its not even about the poll, its the fact that its relevant enough that a popular radio show talk about it.
Yet another example of science, poorly done.
Are you referring to the simplistic coach poll on the Fanatic or the dozens of professional organizations attempting, each in their own way, to predict the outcome of the extremely complicated Presidential election?
Hard to call the Fanatic’s poll even nominally scientific. That’s just click bait.
Oh, I gotcha, just don’t know where the “scientific” came from.
I don’t believe he *should* be fired now, but you can reasonably argue that his decisions are the reason this team is 4-4 and not 6-2. He has publicly said something to the effect that he would do the same things again if he had the chance.
If bad decisions continue to turn wins into losses for the rest of the year, is it really necessary to let it go on for 1 or 2 more years before you do something? Or are you better off to say “we took a chance on a guy that nobody else wanted – maybe we got it wrong” and go another direction?
What if the team loves Schwartz and he is in high demand at the end of the year? Do you do what Tampa did and replace a coach early in order to keep a guy you really like?
I get that you can’t make that call now, but it’s not ridiculous to bring it up in my opinion, especially if he doesn’t change.
Again, I don’t think the decisions were bad, they just turned out wrong. The numbers supported those decisions.
What we’re seeing, IMO, is why coaches take the 3 points and the extra losses that come with it. Because they’re coaching for their jobs, not the losses. It’s like the golfers who go for the win versus the ones who settle for 6th place or whatever because they’re going to get paid.
Against Dallas he was playing not to lose. Against the Giants – I don’t know what that was.
I get the whole “Win Probability” charts, and in a league-wide sample, they are true. But I think you have to balance that with the context of the game you are in. 3/15 on 3rd down and not converting anything in short yardage would concern me (and did). It’s like if you told me parachutes open 99.99998% of the time, but then I watched two guys who jumped before me hit the ground with a splat. I’d probably stay in the plane, no matter what the stats say!
I think Dug was being overly aggressive in this game because he got killed for being conservative against ‘allas. The 2 4th downs that he went for in the 2nd quarter, so you can’t kill him for the team being 3 for 15 on 3rd down. He didn’t know the team was going to do poorly on 3rd downs for the rest of the game. The team had been 5 for 5 on 4th downs so far. Both 4th downs were when the Eagles were down by 11, he was trying to dig the team out of the early hole they dug for themselves. I don’t mind him going for it there, the play calls could’ve been better though.
Do you drive a car or take an airplane? because using your logic, you shouldnt
Hmm, I follow your logic, but not precisely what it means in this context. I’ll just say that I felt, both because of charts and general game situation, I think the decisions were good ones that didn’t turn out. And just remember we still could have lost even if we’d kicked those field goals. I guess I’d be fine with calling the sweep a bad call, based on Wentz’ lack of footspeed.
I still tend to stick with the observation that it comes down to execution more often than not. I don’t think the calls were necessarily bad, but there is something to be said for recognizing (A) Wentz is not Kaepernick, and (B) You have Skates and Vaitai on your OL.
As Chip found out, it’s easier to have “big balls” when you have a good OL. When you have a bad OL, you have to be conservative.
Like Tommy said, they’re laying a foundation. Given the defensive coordinator’s predilections, I think there’s value to building a team identity of aggressiveness. But you’re absolutely right that sometimes (perhaps often), even the right decision doesn’t work out. Can’t judge purely on results.
Fans overreact though. There were only 1582 votes in that poll, don’t think this poll matters at all. Dug is a rookie too. I think this fanbase likes the aggressiveness. Could his playcalling be better? Yes, but I don’t think they are going to fire Dug after his 1st year.
Its just sports talk radio try to drive traffic. Pederson isn’t going anywhere for at least another 2 years after this season at a minimum.
Only way Pederson gets fired too after 3 seasons is if this team doesn’t make the playoffs and they finish under .500 each three years. About the only scenario I could see him possibly getting fired.
I’m already campaigning to get the next head coach fired.
Getting in front of that trend.
Over 55 years waiting for a championship will do that.
sort of like winning the popular vote but losing the election
They’re in the exact same situation as the Flyers, in that they’re in a youth movement with a lot of young potential and mixed results. Except in football, it never feels like that because of the huge gaps between the games. Flyers get the chance to try some things out, play some weird lines, formations, etc. because one game won’t break their season. And even if it did, there’s another game maybe tomorrow to forget all about it. Football? We talk for a week and pour over everything that went wrong. Everyone gets to have a correct opinion because the sample size will never be big enough to disprove you.
Agree, but also the window seems shorter in the NFL given the abbreviated playing careers..
I think the team is doing well considering the youth movement. We are 4-4, much better at home than away. The road-win came against a bad team (Bears) and the home-loss came against a good team (Cowboys). This difference will probably be better as the players get more experienced.
Cowboys game was in ‘allas. We are 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road.
Thanks for the correction. I then look forward to our rematch in Philly.
Division games are tough, especially on the road. Can’t wait to play them at home. Our defense has been killer at home, hope that continues!
Jan 1st at 1pm, hopefully we are strong enough in the end to get the game flexed
Pretty content where the team is at. In actuality I like all (4) Philly major sports teams situations currently. A lot of promising youth everywhere.
even the Sixers?
Hell yea. 4 years of agony, only to have the #1 Ben Simmons need a year off >.<
are they tanking another season?
Not sure if it’s on purpose at this point, but it looks like it.
No Simmons just got hurt and they don’t have a coherent NBA roster.
Even with Saric and Embiid, there are only 5-6 legit NBA players on the Sixers’ roster and they don’t have a legit starting PG. No real discernible strength or team identity either with a bad coach to match in Brown.
Embiid has been entertaining.
“So far, the new regime has continued the front-running aspect of Kelly’s tenure, as the Eagles are now 0-4 at game-winning drive opportunities this season. Philadelphia has lost its last 18 games in which it trailed in the fourth quarter — last coming back for a win in Week 2 of the 2014 season. It feels long ago when the Eagles were 3-0, the defense had allowed 20 total points, and the offense had zero giveaways. Now, the Eagles are 1-4 in their last five games with nine giveaways. Two early interceptions by Wentz set the tone for a 14-0 New York lead, and Eli Manning threw four touchdowns to build a 28-17 lead going into the fourth quarter.”
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2016/clutch-encounters-week-9
Maybe we just need Wentz to make a shower speech #ShowerSpeech
#Last7ShowerSpeeches
“Coach Doug Pederson said he wants Carson Wentz to throw fewer passes over the second half of the season.
Wentz has set season-highs in pass attempts in back-to-back weeks, throwing 43 times in Week 8 before firing off 47 passes in Week 9. Both were Eagles losses. When the Eagles got off to a 3-0 start before their Week 4 bye, Wentz averaged 34 pass attempts per game. Pederson probably wants the rookie back in that range. That would lead to more carries for the running backs.”
Does this mean fewer backward pass attempts??
You got to get a lead to lower the passing attempts. Plain and Simple.
Lets not forget that the team is in year 1 of a new offensive scheme. That adjustment alone has caused growing pains for the receivers, including the TEs. Time will tell who belongs, but we know schematic continuity is what separates great teams from the rest of the league.
I truly believe that Jordan Matthews will develop into a #1 WR in the next couple of years, he’s only 24 and has opportunity ahead of him to get himself acclimated to the scheme with continuity. Same goes for Agholor.
I’m not as down on these skill players as most are. Things will begin to click sooner or later. We need to be patient with this group.
Do the great teams have continuity because they are great or are they great because they have continuity. I think its the first one. Why change things if it’s working great.
The pursuit of continuity is overrated
I disagree. If you look at the teams around the league who are successful offensively from the QB/Skill spots (OAK, CIN, NE, ATL, CAR, SEA, NO, GB and even NYG despite their running issues), they have benefitted from playing under the same system in previous years. Yes, these teams have great players in place, but the continuity plays a huge role in the elevation of their production on a year to year basis; so who’s to say the great players aren’t benefitting from that continuity as well?
Please name me a unit, offensively or defensively, that has produced top 5 results in their first year under a new system.
Continuity is essental in the NFL.
2013:
2nd in yards
4th in points
Fair enough. Let’s acknowledge Chip Kelly catching the NFL off guard with a very unconventional offense that has regressed after each year, one of the rarest occurences in NFL history, but I digress. Easy out.
Deserves credit for getting what he did out of Foles but everyone of the starting OL stayed healthy all year & played 16 G.
It was more about how skilled the offensive personnel were that year (Top 3 RB in McCoy; arguably a Top 5 WR group with Jackson/Maclin).
The Eagles offense got worse every year from 2013-2014-2015, despite continuity. The biggest reason is probably that they unloaded their good offensive players during this time.
The best stretch of Sam Bradford’s career was the first half of the season in his new team, Minnesota, in a new system, with a new coach.
The Eagles are currently #23 by DVOA, whereas they ended #26 last year, despite having a rookie and a new system. I see no evidence the success of the teams you mentioned have much to do with continuity. They have gone up or down, generally related to their personnel, scheme, and development of the QB.
If you have talented players and a good scheme, continuity is probably a great thing, but it’s down the list. Pro sports is generally about talent.
You got a point there. I attribute Bradfords success to his talents 100% and not so much on the system. Good point.
Jim Schwartz this year
Jerry Jones sat with his coaching staff through a lot of bad years
Bengals and jaguars too?
Bengals yes, gus bradley is getting fired. It’s interesting that both SEA DCs that got HC jobs have teams w/ terrible defenses.
Matthews is a solid #2, maybe Treggs can be a #3, but it’s clear Agholor is a bust and DGB has shown why the Titans gave up on him. And as far as Ertz goes, I believe it was over on Kempski’s site that they listed some incredible stats about how god-awful Ertz is on YAC – a play-maker he’s definitely not.
Amazing what Wentz has accomplished with this receiving corps.
Gonna need to see the kid catch more than two passes before Treggs can be considered better than our other WR options. It’s looking like he will get an opportunity, hopefully he makes the most out of it
I’m thinking a full week of practice with the 1’s will help him. He didn’t know until late last week that he would be playing and he had a pretty good game.
In one game he’s had more yards than any game Agholor had in 20. That’s good enough for me.
Eagles are ‘still’ (!!!) No. 1 in DVOA which is amazing since we have given up 4 TD passes to Eli last Sunday…
that’s awesome, how many wins does that give us now?
are we out of the cellar ?
At 4-4, the Eagles are ahead of or tied with 20 teams. They have the same record as the division leaders of the AFC North. They beat the Steelers, who are tied for the AFC North, and the Vikings, the NFC North leaders. They have the 3rd highest point differential in the league.
The other teams in the division rank 2, 14, and 15 in the league by DVOA. Their losses have all been close and mostly could have been reversed by a single play that had gone the other way. In at least one of these games, the officiating was the cause of the loss.
DVOA ranks their defense and special teams both as #1, but offense as #23.
Their schedule is the hardest schedule in the league, and it will continue to be the hardest going forward.
No, none of this gives them extra wins. But it should provide context for how well they have played, and how good they are.
Think 1-3 is a bigger statement of where there than 4-4
Good point. And it should be a nice lead-in to adding a few key pieces to keep the team moving forward next year.
ok so 4-4?
no extra wins for stats? dang!
and the other teams in the division actually rank 1,2,3 in the division while we rank 4.
you know that old saying, ” you are what you record says you are”?
4.
Fair enough. But Let’s acknowledge the fact that Chip Kelly caught the NFL off guard that year with his offense that has regressed after each year. That was very rare occurence, but I digress.
It’s a shame Pederson was only able to do that for three games.
“We got some guys we’re evaluating on our practice squad — Paul Turner, Aaron Grymes,” Pederson said.
TURNERRZZZ
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2016/11/09/doug-pederson-paul-turner-philadelphia-eagles-sign/#0JAyOwiU73jOdzzW.99
“Among tight ends this season, Ertz ranks 22nd in receptions, 22nd in receiving yards, and 39th in yards per reception. There are 44 different NFL tight ends with at least one touchdown reception this year and Ertz is not one of them. Ertz ranks 109th in receiving yards among all pass catchers.”
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2016/11/08/philadelphia-eagles-grades-report-card-review-midseason-2016-zach-ertz/#rsCjyWk0kihuwywy.99
He’s the new LJ Smith albeit with better hands. Eagles paid him like a Top 10 TE and he simply isn’t the caliber.
Reminds me a lot of Curry. He’ll have a good game every now and then but he goes too long with periods of minimal to no production.
Not even close to getting their money’s worth on the deal.
Schmertz
Mittleschmertz?
Großer Schmerz.
A description for this result is not available because of this site’s robots
..
Cant get in english
Ha HA!!! FAS. Literally lol’d.
Mittleschm-ERTZ
I
Never
Heard that word before..
look up what it means.
I sure did immediately. Yep i was totslly cracking up outloud ..
Made me think of when i first heard the word “episciotomy”
Mitchellschmertz ?
Ertz’s inability to produce YAC is legendary and I completely agree he is overpaid, but I think part of the problem is scheme and game-plan related. They absolutely need to get the ball more to their TEs, be that Ertz or the other guys.
How many times have we played against cover 2 with two deep safeties? The lack of seam patterns by tight ends is unfathomable against that defensive formation. For the life of me I can’t understand how Ags has almost as many targets as Ertz and Burton combined. Ryan Mathews a former pro bowler gets benched for Darren Sproles but Ags still plays over 90% of the snaps while Ertz and Burton stand in the sidelines.
The real crime is Burton not getting more snaps.
I remember when I was really hoping the Eagles would be able to land Gus Bradley. I’m actually glad they got Chip instead – our pain is over and the light is the end of the tunnel, not the oncoming train. The Jags are doomed for the foreseeable future.
That’s one reason I was open-minded when Doug was hired. There’s a huge list of “hot coordinator” hires that were busts at HC.
It’s important we find a good replacement for Pederson rather than just grasp for the first guy available. Maybe Schwartz could be that guy, as long as we find someone solid to run the offense. But keeping Pederson around for now buys Howie Roseman time to find the right coach.
I don’t dislike Pederson. The Eagles could offer him a job as QB coach or something similar that better fits his level of competence.
You want the coach fired already?
Not at all, I just believe he will be fired. If I had to put money on it, I’d say he gets 2 seasons.
I am just speaking my mind as a frustrated Philadelphia Sports fan. I get what you are saying Tommy about our situation in relation to other teams , but in all honesty I could care less about other teams and their issues. I only care about and want to see the Eagles be great. Losing games against teams with superior talent is something I think we can all accept. The Eagles are as good if not better than all of the teams we lost to with the possible exception of the Cowgirls and we outplayed them for most of the game. Beating ourselves week after week and finding new ways to lose close games is about as frustrating as it gets. Winning cures everything. If they find a way to win vs. Atlanta we will all feel a little better. This city needs and deserves a great team to lift our spirits.