Meet the UDFAs
Posted: May 2nd, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 181 Comments »No official announcement as of this morning, but this seems to be the list.
C Tyler Orlosky – 6-3, 298 – West Virginia
RB Corey Clement – 5-10, 220 – Wisconsin
WR Greg Ward – 5-11, 186 – Houston
DT Winston Craig – 6-3, 288 – Richmond
LB Marcus Oliver – 6-1, 236 – Indiana
CB Jomal Wiltz – 5-9, 178 – Iowa State
DB Randall Goforth – 5-10, 190 – UCLA
TE Billy Brown – 6-4, 255 – Shepherd
FS Tre Sullivan – 5-11, 189 – Shepherd
P Cameron Johnston – Ohio State
QB Dakota Prukop – Oregon/Montana State (camp invite)
I have not watched any tape of the bottom 3 guys. Everyone else I’ve seen in action. This won’t be lengthy scouting reports, but more an introduction to these guys and how they fit.
Orlosky was the top overall UDFA to some draft anaylsts. I had him rated as a 4th round pick. Orlosky was a 3-year starter at WV. He has NFL ability, but isn’t special in any way. He has solid size. His snaps need to be quicker. He gets a bit off balance at times and isn’t overly athletic. Orlosky is a grinder, but that’s okay at C. You can get by in there if you’re smart and tough. He’s both of those. I do think he could develop into a future starter, but I wouldn’t say that is likely. He’s going to have to really battle to even make this team.
It is interesting that the top UDFA C signed with the Eagles, who have Jason Kelce and Stefen Wisniewski and Isaac Seumalo already. How did the team convince him to sign here? Will Kelce be dealt this summer?
Clement has NFL size and potential. He is 5-10, 220. He can catch the ball. He can return punts. He’s just not dynamic in any way. There were some character issues with him that hurt his value. There is also a bias against Wisconsin RBs. UW normally puts out good OL. That means the RBs have holes to run through and their job is much easier. There is no doubt Clement benefited from this. At the same time, you don’t run for 1,375 yards as a Senior because the line is good. Clement played a big part in that.
Clement is not as good as Wendell Smallwood was last spring. He’s not as good as Donnel Pumphrey. Don’t pencil him into the lineup quite yet. He has an opportunity in Philly, but Clement has to come in hungry and with a chip on his shoulder. If he’s willing to work his butt off and battle for a job, he can help this team out. The raw talent is there.
We'll miss you in Madison, @CoreyClement_6.
Good luck next week in the NFL draft. https://t.co/sAFFIOmvAE
— Wisconsin On BTN (@WisconsinOnBTN) April 22, 2017
At his best, he is a N-S runner. He makes one cut and then gets up the field. He has okay speed for a guy who is 220 pounds. And that clip shows he can break it loose for a big run. Clement has a great opportunity. I hope he can take advantage of it.
Ward was a great QB for Houston. He comes to the Eagles to play WR. Ward has the size and skills to be a good slot receiver. He is more quick than fast, only running 4.59 in the 40. Ward isn’t going to fly downfield, but he is very elusive and could turn short plays into solid gains. Can he make the transition to WR? He has experience as a PR from college so that tells you he has good enough hands that the coaches trusted him in that role. Ward has to show he can catch passes. I’m not worried about him after the catch. In 2015 he averaged 6 yards per carry and ran for 21 TDs. He knows how to run in traffic and make people miss.
Ward also has all the intangibles the Eagles want. He helped take the Houston program to its highest level in years and years. He upset Top 10 teams and won some big bowl games. Ward is smart, tough and ultra-competitive. One of my favorite plays from him came in a game vs Cincy. He chased down a defender after an INT and long return and fought through a crowd to get the guy out of bounds. That showed great heart and determination. Ward has STs potential as well as an offensive role. He could be a Brad Smith type player if he develops as they would like.
I started paying attention to Craig after his Pro Day performance. He is 6-3, 288. Ran 5.02, had a 28-inch VJ and did 25 reps. Showed good quickness and agility. That athleticism showed up on the field. He had 7.5 sacks last year, along with 8 hurries, 3 pass deflections and a couple of blocked kicks. Craig is suited for the Eagles scheme, which would have him shooting gaps to make plays in the backfield.
Craig was used creatively by Richmond. He played DT, NT and DE. There were times when he would stand up like a LB and read the play. He shot gaps and had good success on stunts/twists as well. Craig shows real potential as a pass rusher. He must play with better pad level. He is too upright. That worked at the I-AA level, but will get him nowhere in the NFL. Craig needs to get bigger/stronger, but not too much. Quickness and athleticism is key to his game.
Oliver is a tough player to figure. He had 16 TFLs and 5 FFs in 2016. And that was playing for a new defensive coach. The numbers guys loved him.
Indiana LB Marcus Oliver has reportedly signed with the Eagles as a UDFA. His 86.1 run defense grade ranked sixth in the draft class. pic.twitter.com/OdNbbrgY8I
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) April 30, 2017
I put on the Northwestern game and thought he looked terrible. I watched a few other games and saw a better player. I still saw a player who just looked stiff and a bit too slow. I went back and watched some 2015 games. He did look more athletic. I don’t know if he had any nagging injuries or was just slowed by adjusting to the new coach. His production was better in 2016, but I thought he looked better in 2015. Oliver does need to play MLB. I do not think he can be effective on the outside. He is tough and will take on blockers. You can also tell he’s a smart player and knows where to be. Based on his tape, he looked like a long shot, but I am curious to see how he will do in an NFL setting. IU doesn’t have anyone like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham in front of him.
Wiltz was my favorite of the UDFAs, but also incredibly frustrating. Iowa State must have 237 DBs and they play them all. Every snap was Where’s Wiltz? Sometimes he was at RCB. Other times LCB. Sometimes he was in the slot. Sometimes he was at Safety. Other times he was on the sideline watching so the other couple of hundred DBs could get snaps.
Wiltz is small at 5-9, 178. He has a track background and reportedly ran 4.43 at his Pro Day. I can’t verify that, so take it with with a grain of salt. Wiltz returned kickoffs as well as playing DB. I loved him because he played with so much attitude. There was definitely some Jalen Mills to his game. No finger wag, but he let receivers know about every incompletion. He might be small, but was an aggressive tackler and wanted to be in on as many plays as possible. His best pro spot is the slot. Wiltz is a long shot for the NFL, but he could be fun to watch this summer. He will compete. I bet Jim Schwartz will enjoy his spirit and aggressiveness. And who knows…maybe he’ll improve with a more defined role.
Goforth played all over for the Bruins. He was a S, CB, in the slot and even played some LB in certain sets. He finished his career with 10 INTs and 20 PDs, both impressive numbers. I wasn’t as impressed by his tape. I saw a solid player, but not someone who jumped out at me. His highlights make him look like a future NFL starter, The actual game tape is still good, but not nearly as compelling.
You see a player who is at his best with the ball in front of him. He can break on it or go attack the runner/receiver with the ball. Goforth is aggressive in going after the ball. Several of his INTs were right-place, right-time though. He’s not a true ball hawk with great range. Still, give the guy credit. Some guys have a knack for being in the right place and making the play. He reminds me of Jaylen Watkins in that he could play S or in the slot. Solid tackler.
Brown played WR at D2 Shepherd. He was huge and a better athlete than the guys he went against. Brown has solid speed, long arms and big hands. He was a dominant player at his level, but faces a huge transition to the NFL. Playing TE is very different from WR. He will be running routes in traffic and quickness will be more important than speed. He will also have to learn how to block. Brown is a major project but does have upside. It will be interesting to see if he can play well enough to earn a practice squad spot (the Eagles would love that) or if he’s going to be in way over his head.
Sullivan was fun to watch. Played FS for the Rams. Lined up deep and attacked whatever was in front of him. Lacks ideal deep speed at just 4.61, but has excellent burst and plays faster than he times. Takes good angles to the ball. Can be a sloppy tackler at times because he wants to be a big hitter. Does have some real pop for a guy his size. The Eagles could try him in the slot, but I think his best fit is S.
I’m not going to pretend like I scouted Johnston. I’m no expert on punters. He was 5th in the nation at 46.7 yards per punt. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t killed anyone so we’ll call him a high character guy and list that as another positive.
Prukop played at Montana State before transferring to Oregon. The Ducks were hoping to find the next Vernon Adams. That didn’t happen. Neither he nor Oregon had a good year. He is in Philly to be a camp body.
@FBallGameplan Dorian Williams (Princeton) earned a tryout with the Eagles next week
— Kyle Morgan (@NoHuddleScouts) May 1, 2017
I have not had a chance to watch Williams yet.
*****
#49ers, #Eagles among big spenders in UDFA. Guarantees include $45,000 for KD Cannon. (Note: Not a complete list. May include offsets.) pic.twitter.com/SYVapDO49O
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 1, 2017
_
Tommy, thanks for filling us in on these players which most of us have no clue about. I am definitely curious about the Center we signed. (Tyler Orlosky ). I have a feeling that at some point we may trade Kelce for a future draft pick or maybe in a player for player trade that could benefit both teams.
Geez we are lucky to have you Tommy. Good show!
Thanks as always
“I’m not going to pretend like I scouted Johnston. I’m no expert on punters. He was 5th in the nation at 46.7 yards per punt. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t killed anyone so we’ll call him a high character guy and list that as another positive.”
As Eagles fans we take our wins where we can get them!!
Tommy, in your medical opinion, is Sidney Jones’ achilles going to be fully healed in time for him to play in the Super Bowl this year?
It’ll be fun to see where the UDFA guys can find a way to stick.
I think Orlosky’s chance really depends on Jason Kelce. If he is here, there really isnt space for him on starting roster.
Clement can stick if he can prove he is an effective runner inside (and it also depends what the coaching think of Smallwood)
One of the DBs has a great chance to stick because we are so thin there.
Billy Brown is an interesting option and has a real chance for playing time if he can transit.
I like the UCLA kid. I hope he can bump Jaylin Watkins off the roster
After Tommy’s write up – how can anybody be excited about him. Ouch.
Not sure you should ever be excited over a UDFA signing. Most don’t make the team, those that do are usually backups.
UDFAs who become starters are entirely unexpected — if it were believed they were that good, they would have been draft picks. So you only ever get excited long down the line when they are a surprise, not on signing day.
As D3 says- later Day 3 picks (including UDFA’s) are lottery tickets, one of them will hit once in a while. When fortune is on your side, you get Seattle. Every once in a while, things work out.
We’ve lack the consistency and stability in our entire organization in order to develop and coach our players “up” over the last 8 years or so. When Reid was coming to the end of his run with us, and he was throwing mud at the wall hoping that it would stick with older (semi-retired) coaches, we didn’t have the development system in place.
Early in Reid’s tenure, we had a boatload of UDFA’s turn into contributors. Hopefully (regardless of what you think of Doug) we can bring some stability back to the organization and give some gems the time they need to grow and produce in the league.
Ceddy worked out pretty well
Always an exception to the rule. My point is that early in Reid’s tenure, we had the stability of a steady scheme and good coaches. We haven’t had that lately.
There’s a few ways for Orlosky to make the team.
-They keep 11 OL like they did last year (Warmack/Orlosky instead of Tobin/Andrews)
-They trade Kelce
– Gordon has a good summer and they feel comfortable playing him if need be, making Barbre expendable.
– Injuries or somebody having a shit camp
It was interesting to see/read/hear how the 2017 draft was extremely deep at rb and cb. Eagles drafted a Sproles replacement. While we all love Sproles, he’s not a 3 down back. I don’t want to say I was hoping for better, because I like the new kid(he looks electric). Since it was dubbed ‘deep at rb’, I at least expected a different rb. Maybe the draft didn’t fall as expected and the Eagles couldn’t get the rb they wanted?
…..
This is a process that is not in its final stages. Maybe Eagles target a rb next spring. As it stands right now, the rb position is a weak spot. Maybe the offense goes more finesse in 2017? Not sure there are funds to sign someone. It’s 5/2 and it’s a long way till September so anything can happen….
Remember when everyone begged Andy to draft a power back every year for, like, 10 years?
Yeah, everything old is new again.
…and then Tony Hunt happened.
you saying rookie and Shady are the same?
I like Ward. I saw him against Temple and he made things happen. I used to hire people, engineers and scientists, and I instructed the college recruiters to look for the lucky kids, the ones that seemingly do little but everything seems to fall in place.
Media Mike,
Our discussion yesterday regarding the lack of 4-3 DEs getting ore than 8 sacks in a year and the value of selecting Derek Barnett in the first round got me thinking. Here are all the guys who played in a 4-3 from 2011 through 2016.
1/3 of them were first round picks, just over 1/3 were from rounds 2-3, and the final 1/3 were selected after the 3rd round.
Ezekiel Ansah 1
Cameron Jordan 1
Robert Ayers Jr. 1
Mario Williams 1
Jason Pierre-Paul 1
Robert Quinn 1
Jerry Hughes 1
Chris Long 1
Julius Peppers 1
John Abraham 1
Jason Babin 1
Dwight Freeney 1
Frank Clark 2
Carlos Dunlap 2
Vinny Curry 2
Calais Campbell 2
Osi Umenyiora 2
Jabaal Sheard 2
Danielle Hunter 3
Cliff Avril 3
Olivier Vernon 3
Charles Johnson 3
Justin Tuck 3
Jason Hatcher 3
Michael Johnson 3
Everson Griffen 4
Jared Allen 4
Brian Robison 4
Trent Cole 5
Robert Mathis 5
Greg Hardy 6
Willie Young 7
Cameron Wake UDFA
Mario Addison UDFA
Michael Bennett UDFA
Chris Clemons UDFA
huh. I never would have thought that. Is the talent mostly in 3-4 right now?
Larger sample size, while still having enough potential to have an impact. Looks like if you want sacks you take a skilled rusher in the first and that’s what the Eagles did. Looking forward to his progress.
True. The list only shows the successes. There are plenty of Bryan Smiths that didn’t make the list.
My interpretation of the sack data is that sacks are overrated when it comes to defining a 4-3 DE.
Trent Cole, DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen, Dwight Freeney, Michael Strahan, even Brandon Graham (I’m sticking to guys I am familiar with as I don’t watch Miami, New Orleans, etc. unless they are on national TV) are all guys that impacted games with or without sacks.
I think Barnett has a legitimate shot to be a difference maker, with or without getting a lot of sacks.
Not many players there are 6-4 270 (around average 4-3 DE size) with the skills to bend the edge.
You know, one day I will accidentally hover over your profile picture and the enlarged version won’t creep me out.
Today is still not that day.
Do you remember where that pic came from? https://twitter.com/eddiemac83/status/676164095410769920
I would say so.
Here are the DEs in 4-3 defenses with 13+ sacks since 2012. Note, each player did it only once.
Ezekiel Ansah 2015
Mario Williams 2014 (under Jim Schwartz)
Robert Quinn 2013
Carlos Dunlap 2015
Greg Hardy 2013
Cameron Wake 2012
The top 3 were first round picks and Dunlap was selected in the 2nd round.
I believe people need to curb their expectations a bit. Guys that get like 15+ sacks like Justin Houston, Von Miller, and JJ Watt are the outlier. They are those guys that you grow in labs to be pass rushers. Getting 10-13 sacks a year would make you elite. Getting more than that every year makes you an eventual HoFer.
I think that’s the conclusion of the data I provided. It’s very rare for guys to consistently get double-digit sacks year after year. A first round pick obviously gives you a better chance of landing a player like that, but in reality other than rush linebackers in 3-4 defense, this type of defensive lineman are really rare, even moreso than franchise QB.
Nice work, Dave.
great pull, great research. only curious what the % breakdown looks like.
for instance, you have 12 first round DEs listed. but, how many total 43 DEs were drafted those years? obviously there are twice as many potential draft picks in rds 2 and 3 than in rd 1, and final 1/3 are a much smaller % considering all the DEs drafted day 3 or UDFA
quick glance looking at NFL.com draft history, just round 1 last 7 years:
2016: 1/2 (JOEY BOSA, shaq lawson)
’15: 1/2 (dante fowler*, VIC BEASLEY)
’14: 0/2 (jadeveon clowney*, ms2)
’13: 1/1 (EZ ANSAH)
’12: 0/0? (bruce irvin?, chandler jones? no true 43 DE)
’11: 2/3 (ROBERT QUINN, adrian clayborn [7.5 sacks rookie year], CAMERON JORDAN)
’10: 2/4 (brandon graham, JASON PIERRE-PAUL, jared odrick, JERRY HUGHES)
so that’s a cumulative 7/14, or 50% hit rate. and two of those misses are BG and clayborn, who have come oh so close and BG may yet hit. same can be said for shaq lawson and dante fowler, so list may yet be 10 or 11/14.
those names above, plus OLBs like von miller and khalil mack, pretty much represent the top-tier of elite pass rushers.
tl;dr — round pedigree absolutely matters.
—
ayers was 2009, long was 2008, peppers/abraham/babin/freeney/williams all before that.
I’d like to see a breakdown of the 3-4 sackmeisters, too.
i’ve got lunch to eat, but nfl.com is real handy
Doesn’t hurt to ask 😉
Bosa, Lawson, and Clowney are 3-4 guys.
Beasley is a LB.
Hughes spent one year as 4-3 DE under Schwartz but has been a 3-4 DE the last several years under Rex Ryan.
I’d actually consider Graham a hit. He got injured then had to endure a position change under Chip for 3 years.
thanks for the notes/edits; think the point still stands.
Really good breakdown. Something to consider as we look at where Barnett winds up at the end of year 3.
As an Ohio State fan I’d wager I’ve seen more of Johnston than most around here, so I thought I’d offer some thoughts.
He’s from Australia, used to play Australian Rules football and, as a result, has more of a rugby-style delivery than you typically see in the NFL. It seems like he’s aware of it, though, and there are reports that he’s been working on a more conventional punting style ahead of turning pro.
He doesn’t get a huge amount of hang time on his punts (which might cause him trouble with quicker returners in the NFL), but he’s got a big leg and routinely made punts that covered 70 yards in the air, so it might be as simple as adjusting the trajectory to sacrifice a little distance in exchange for more height.
It also seemed like he had way more punts downed inside the 5 yard line than most punters. I’m sure some of that is down to a good coverage team, but he seems to have a knack for putting the ball in the right place.
The biggest drawback was that there were way more blocked punts than you want to see. I suspect there were issues with blocking because guys just want to get downfield, but his low trajectory and tendency to roll out of the pocket as he winds up are definitely things Johnston will have to be more careful with in the NFL.
Jones has some money tied up in his contract. Johnston is just in camp to take reps and audition for other teams.
Nice write up, though.
He was smart to come here and learn from one of the best; auditioning for another team while learning from one of the best Special Teams units in the league is a wise choice.
Punters have long careers, and not many rookie’s make a NFL team; keep in shape, practice your craft, and come back next year to make the team. Hell, if he’s available in 2 years- he might have a spot here. And injuries always happen.
Sorry we already know who we must get to replace Jones eventually
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5hECvolbHg
By my math, we save $500k if we cut Jones, which is about the same as the rookie minimum (which Johnston would presumably be making).
From a financial perspective, it makes no real difference which of them we keep so if Johnston’s better than Jones in camp he probably makes the team.
Cutting Jones is an $875k cap hit.
$875k in dead money if he’s cut is a $500k saving on the $1.375m he costs if we keep him, per OTC.
And keeping Johnston on a minimum deal also means we’re not paying Jones the $1.875m and $2.125m he’s due in 2018 and 2019 (although those are unguaranteed amounts, so we could cut or restructure him next year to save that money).
I expect Jones will win the job because he’s a damn fine punter and, as others have noted, rookie punters tend not to win a roster spot right out of school, but it won’t be because of his contract.
From a financial perspective there’s no reason not to have an open competition and keep whichever guy plays best.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it might be the first time in NFL history a team sinks a million bucks into a STer to cut him for an UDFA four months later.
It makes no sense from a cash perspective even if you can force a cap wash.
It makes even more sense from a cash perspective than a cap perspective. They’ve paid him $1m already, that’s a sunk cost. If they keep him, they’ll have to pay him an additional $1.25m in 2017 base salary and if they cut him they won’t – they’ll save the difference between that $1.25m and whatever they pay his replacement (which, if it’s Johnston, would represent a cash saving of about $750k in 2017 and something like $3.5m over the life of the contract).
If Johnston plays better than Jones in camp (and I admit it’s highly unlikely that he does) then cutting Jones is cap-neutral, presents a small but non-trivial cash saving *and* allows you to keep the better player on the roster.
As I’ve said, I expect Jones to win the competition and keep his job. And, assuming he does, his job is safe because the cash (and more importantly cap) saving from cutting him isn’t significant enough to justify downgrading the position. But if he gets outplayed his contract won’t save him.
“Mr. Lurie I just signed a guy, gave him a million dollars and cut him for an undrafted player, the cap hit is pretty much a wash and it’s a sunk cost anyway -so about my raise.”
It’s simply not happening -barring injury, of course.
Knowing Howie, he probably structured the contract for this exact situation.
Plus he’s already pocketed $500k signing bonus.
This draft was really, really different without birds 24/7. Thanks tommy for all you do.
Was hoping to pick up QB Torgerson to compete for the qb3 spot, but only because I am a Penn homer. Looks like he signed with the Falcons…
Ok so on the “big RB”/workhorse/between the tackles guy yada yada yada…. front…
I see it as we have these options unless they truly just go RBBC with the small guys – Sproles, Smallwood, Pumphrey
– Watson (unlikely to be capable)
– Clement works out to be adequate for the role (behavior issues, likes to bounce outside too often, doesn’t seem to have great mental make-up)
– Free Agent: Blount? (I was stupidly into the idea of Charles, but nah)…
Is Rashad Jennings still available?
– Trade?/likely cut targets?
Ingram?
Asiata?
One of the Jacksonville guys?
I’m sure I’m missing something…
I was also disappointed given the depth, the buzz leading up to it all… etc… There were RBs I wanted and we didn’t get. Going in I was even more of a Tarik Cohen guy than Pumphrey but I get it… Pump has serious production and just might be a very effect weapon in the similar ways that Sproles can’t be seen etc… – but not another Sproles.
But we need to be patient and see where this goes.
Kendrick’s and DGB for Asiata?
Reunite the bros… perhaps. I’d take it.
#WrongCousin
#I’mDeadInside
Actually, Matt is a free agent? Bring him in, sign Shaun to the PS as a fullback and Isaac will be sure to come here in a few years.
As the Andrews brothers proved… foolproof.
Or we could murder Adam Gase.
Just spitballing.
If we declare primae noctis, someone should make Spadaro film the result.
I’d settle for bringing Chris Polk back right about now
Looked at Ourlads yesterday.
Charles Sims and Buck Allen could probably be had for next to nothing.
Good digging. But those would be worst case scenario guys – no?
Depends on how much they want to spend draft capital wise.
Ingram’s probably the best case. But the Saints have to eat $3.3 mil in dead money and only free up $2mil. They might but it’s probably going to cost roughly a 5th (maybe a late 4).
The two I listed could probably be had for a lightly conditioned 7 (makes roster 7th, runs for 700 yards 6th). The other positives are they’re bigger guys than smallwood, both can catch, both can bang a little bit, both have flashed but fell out of favor last year. Both have two years left on their rookie deals.
Aha. Thanks for the detailed analysis. I’d be fine with that.
You are obviously forgetting the soon-to-be-cut Christine Michael a.k.a. “the awakening”.
Ha
You heard it here first. Book it now.
Well, Mike Lombardi really likes the Mack Hollins pick so…guess he won’t be making the team
Wouldn’t be shocked if Orlosky stuck around as a guard. Especially if his snaps have issues. Glad we got Clement. Think he can make the roster as a more conventional back.
I also have a trade idea which just seems too perfect. The selections of Hollins and Gibson suggest to me that JMatt’s days as an Eagle really are numbered. We also still have a short-term deficiency at CB because Jones might not play at all this season, leaving us with Patrick Robinson, Jalen Mills, and a rookie Rasul Douglas. Meanwhile, the Bears just declined the fifth-year option for Kyle Fuller. Fuller had a good 2015 season, but had been injured all of last season. It seems that the Bears are sour on him and itching to get rid of him. I say pursue a player-for-player deal, Matthews for Fuller. If Sidney Jones (and Douglas) is healthy and good next year, we have no need for Fuller, so we can let him walk. We should have a lot of free agents next year, so letting Fuller go just might land the Eagles compensatory picks in 2019. So we have Fuller as a placeholder for Jones in one cornerback spot, and hope Douglas develops in the other, with Jalen Mills maybe becoming the nickel CB where speed is less of an issue.
As for JMatt- he seems like the type of player that the team would like to keep around, but they will have a set number that they want to offer him in which he can take it or leave. He’s not dynamic, but he’s solid and has NFL ability and determination. He has a great relationship with Wentz, high character and will play in the NFL for 10 years.
But, the team is preparing for the future without him (as you stated). I’m not entirely sure that Smith is a lock for the roster (only $500k guaranteed) but he’s got a better chance than DGB and possibly Ags. I can see JMatt signing an extension for around $7m per year- he’s got consistent numbers, but he has his flaws.
I’d offer the Bears MS3 for Fuller. Both 5th year options are declined, and a player for player swap isn’t unheard of at this point. A change of scenery could do them both wonders.
Occasionally there have been comparisons between JMatt and James “Trash” Thrash, maybe because both are seen as high-character, limited players. I checked out there stats.
Thrash’s career started much more slowly, although he had a bit higher yard per reception. Balancing that out, he had a much lower catch% and didn’t score as much. It helped James that he was a versatile guy who could do kickoff returns. He also only fumbled 5 times in his 12-year career, whereas JMatt has already fumbled 3 times in three years.
JMatt started much stronger, although the league is much more pass-happy now, and as the undisputed top WR on the team (blech!) he got far more targets. Overall, JMatt’s stats have gotten worse each year in terms of yards per reception and his catch% the last year was also the worst of his short career.
If I had to guess, JMatt will have a long career, but will never rise above JAG+ and is nothing more than a role player with iffy hands.
I love the guy but at some point he’s shown you who he is – a decent WR who you don’t want to throw to in any clutch moments
Our Top 3 Wr’s produced 21 Td’s in 2014. In 2015 our Top 3 produced 11. In 2016, our Top 3 Wr’s produced 7 Td’s. Kelly was in the 2nd year of his spread concept offense, which helped to inflate the numbers across the board. Hell, Riley Cooper had 577 yards and McCoy added 1300 on the ground.
I’d argue that he is a product of the environment around him- with speed and consistency on the outside (thus forcing the focus of the defense) everything underneath will open up.
I think he’s a step above JAG, but not by much- we are in agreement on that point.
My biggest gripe about Matthews is that he was taken higher than he should have been. There were much better WRs in Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, and Jarvis Landry there for us.
Like this year- there was a run on WR’s. Chip saw something that he liked, and he went for it.
We now know that Chip sucked with the personnel side of things; when he was selected (and based on capable, speedy outside receivers) he was a good fit. Currently, he’s a duck out of water. Too big inside, too slow outside.
We can’t do anything about shoulda, coulda, woulda- he’s here now and the next determination will be if we should keep him around for the next 4 years.
We have actually discussed that exact trade several times on this very forum during the last month! I am all for it.
I think it especially makes sense now that the Eagles have made their picks. Hollins and Gibson provide depth at WR that makes Matthews disposable. And the biggest reason for the move is selecting Sidney Jones who could be on IR all season, combined with the fact that Fuller is a free agent after this season. It’s just too perfect.
Matthers by all accounts is the much more proven player – and their contract status is the same. I’d like to think that the Bear should feel lucky to make a trade like that. I’d rather see us giving them Kendricks, MSII or Kelce in return. But ya.
I don’t think Kendricks, MSII, or Kelce have much, if any, trade value. The one thing we’d have going against us is that the Bears already have Cam Meredith, Markus Wheaton, and Kevin White. The latter two already have injuries in the past, but the Bears would have low commitment to Matthews so maybe adding him isn’t the worst idea for them. Obviously I’d love to see us fleece them by sending them Agholor or DGB, but I’m trying to be realistic. The Eagles probably let Matthews walk next year anyway, so why not make a net gain for this season while they can?
MSII is about as bad in standing here as Fuller is over there – and he has the extra rookie year ahead of him. Premium position too. The other two are actually capable veterans that can start – Kelce has been to pro bowl. Lets not forget, Fuller is a dude who almost didnt play last year and the team no longer wants him for the future (is the assumption). He doesnt have any trade value either. Think about the trade we made for DGB last year – I mean, what kind of trade value did Dennis Freakin’ Kelly have exactly? Sometimes it doesnt take much.
Kaplan on WIP has some interesting insights on the draft:
– Eagles had a possible trade of Kendricks to the 49ers only to have it fall through at the last minute; given his $4.35M figure though Kendricks is going to be tough to move now since he is not seen as a starter by a number of teams
– Insists Eagles wanted McCaffrey in the 1st round and were prepared to possibly take Cook in the 2nd round; weren’t going to give up picks though to move up in the 2nd round to get Cook
– Eagles are focused on 2 if not 3 years out and are going to overhaul lots of the roster in the interim as they continue to rebuild
– Multiple NFL front office personnel told him Charles Harris was the player with more upside but Barnett was the safer pick; Eagles felt they couldn’t take ‘a leap of faith’ on a player like Harris though in the 1st round at #14
Yeah Caplan always has great insight. This all makes sense to me. I think that’s a sound approach.
A lot of fans only look at the short-term and care about maxing out performance chances for this season. But I think this was the wisest use of resources given how the draft fell.
Added some interesting points on Pederson too. He said that the Eagles’ players have to respect and possibly even fear Pederson a bit more. Absolutely critical year for Pederson to do so. Added the Eagles’ players including their veterans lost that respect for Kelly by Year 2 and it was a key reason he failed here.
Added Pederson needs to much more assertive and set that precedent from the OTAs. Kaplan added that the Eagles’ front office has done Pederson no favors and put him in a somewhat awkward position because they want him to filter more of his comments to the media. Mentioned that 2 questions addressed to Pederson on the draft were either directly answered by Roseman or Douglas instead. Kaplan said he has never seen that in a post-draft press conference.
Kaplan added that while Reid had a rep as a player’s coach that he was very assertive in his early years here. Mentioned the classic story about Hegamin pushing the blocking sled 100 yards and cutting him immediately afterwards.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/dneagles/Reid_Era_Camp_Classics_No_3.html
Also mentioned how he suspended Buckhalter when he got caught smoking weed and then made him right on the blackboard in front of the entire team that he would not smoke weed. Cut the other 2 rookies that were caught with Buckhalter.
http://www.timesherald.com/article/JR/20011118/SPORTS/311189986
Interesting points. Yeah, I don’t think Doug will ever be that prototypical coach people want him to be. And I’m really not certain that it’s critical to winning – even a SB.
And it was certainly awkward (on multiple levels/angles) at the press conferences – including the Doug and how they were clearly filtering for him.
It’s not ideal for sure but I’m not willing to go all the way to assuming it’s an actual problem that will hurt the football team.
Heck, the real coach is Carson anyway. Ha
And by the way, it’s Adam Caplan, not Kaplan.
Pete Carroll is one of the most rah-rah NFL coaches out there. Bill Belichick is a curmudgeonly asshat.
To each is own. Some players respond to tough love, some are more receptive to positive reinforcement. I personally always did better with the latter.
Pederson will be fine as long as Wentz turns out to be the real deal.
Well put. I agree on all accounts. I think having a Schwartz or Schwartz type as the DC (similar to Andy’s case) is also key.
Players care about three things -winning, money, and all the money that winning brings. Doug, like AR, takes the team deep into the playoffs nobody’s gonna care about how tough or player-friendly he might be.
Very well put.
But not in that order.
I agree to a point but when a football coach loses the respect of his players it is really hard to get back with a likely limited shelf life for that head coach.
I can’t remember what book I read this in, but an interesting nugget and we’ve all prob seen this. The author remarked that often the professionals that worked for task masters (tough love) could be better, but if you are the task master those people are more likely to leave once they have the requisite experience b/c you are making them miserable. Obv not applicable in the NFL where movement is restrained. I also found that being a screamer is kind of the easier way out. It’s more work to create buy in then to just say “I don’t care get it done”.
They need to get some difference makers on the OL.
If this is all true, then this is the first time I’m really down on Howie. Failure to make a trade, and needing other teams to pick guys ahead of you that you have no business drafting in rd 1 and 2 makes me feel sick.
I’m down with Barnett though and think that he’s not just the safer, but better pick at 14.
The trade not happening is disappointing. But that may have evaporated when they took Foster.
Unsure what the “no business” part is — McCaffery was pretty obviously worth that pick — would have been a steal if he fell using hindsight. If you didn’t like the player, fine.
I was fine with not taking Cook in the second, especially not trading up, but it’s also possible we will look with envy at Minnesota’s running game this year if none of our own guys pan out 🙂 But if Pumphrey can do well, beating the odds, we’ll be absolutely psyched we have Jones still coming.
I’m much more psyched about how the draft actually went, than if we had got either one of those running backs.
I still view RB as a position you draft as either a luxury pick, or a player who is just too good to pass up in round 2/3.
When is the press conf. for all these picks? only saw Barnett and Douglas.
OT: Reading The Power of Habit, a book somewhat in the Malcolm Gladwell style of reporting. There’s a section on Tony Dungy’s work with the Bucs, when he took them from by far the worst team in the league to a Superbowl contender. His philosophy was strikingly similar to what we were told about Chip Kelly’s ideas about simplifying and reducing complexity so players can act and react more quickly. Pretty good read.
“Part of the problem was Dungy’s coaching philosophy. In his job interviews, he would patiently explain his belief that the key to winning was changing players habits. He wanted to get players to stop making so many decisions during a game, he said. He wanted them to react automatically, habitually. If he could instill the right habits, his team would win. Period.
“Champions don’t do extraordinary things,” Dungy would explain. “They do ordinary things, but they do them without thinking, too fast for the other team to react. They follow the habits they’ve learned.”
How, the owners would ask, are you going to create those new habits?
Oh no, he wasn’t going to create new habits, Dungy would answer. Players spent their lives building the habits that got them to the NFL. No athlete is going to abandon those patterns simply because some new coach says to.
So rather than creating new habits, Dungy was going to change players’ old ones. And the secret to changing old habits was using what was already insider players’ heads. Habits are a three-step loop — the cure, the routine, and the reward — but Dungy only wanted to attack the middle step, the routine. He knew from experience that it was easier to convince someone to adopt a new behavior if there was something familiar at the beginning and the end.”
* upvoted*
thanks for sharing this, I’ve noticed the “power of habit” but neglected to read it because I figured it would be too similar to a lot of other books that I have on my shelves like “grit”, “mindset” and “the compound effect”. I will definitely check it out now..always love to see football anecdotes in those types of books
I am enjoying it and will use it for inspiration to change some habits of my own. I have some things to work on. The book lies somewhere between a feel good self-help offering and Malcolm Gladwell edutainment, but lacks rigor. For example, it implies that the Buc’s turnaround was due to Dungy’s coaching style, and doesn’t mention the big time talented he managed to draft, too.
“So rather than creating new habits, Dungy was going to change players’ old ones.” “He knew from experience that it was easier to convince someone to adopt a new behavior if there was something familiar at the beginning and the end.”
Tomato tamato…they are the same thing, creating new habits to replace/change old habits.
Actually, the book emphasizes that the cue and reward must stay the same, but the “routine,” that is the part between those two phases, must be changed. The distinction seems subtle, but is vital.
So, for example, say you eat a sandwich every time you go into the kitchen. The cue is going to the kitchen, the reward is the feeling of fullness. Eating the sandwich is the “routine.” A possible solution would be drinking a big glass of water, and substituting that instead of eating the sandwich.
It’s a great book. As is “Mindset”, despite the feces it was dragged through by Chip.
thanks for sharing, sounds interesting I’ll pick it up.
Jason McCourty, Brandon Flowers, and Sam Shields are all still available FAs. Not entirely sure if Shields will retire or not with his concussion issues though.
I’d feel a lot better with at least one veteran on the CB depth chart.
There is a reason they are out on the street…money, age, injuries, ineffectiveness.
probably true
hoping CJ and Grymes can take a step forward with another year under their belts. I almost have more faith in them on the outside spot than the rookie or FA guy
Calling ACViking, curious about the new developments in the Gareon Conley situation.
Originally two of the witnesses in the police report (friends of Conley) said that no sexual contact occurred between the plaintiff and Conley. Now Conley has changed his story and says that they had consensual sex, which directly contradicts the witness statements originally taken.
I’m certainly no legal expert, but changing your story at this stage of the game can’t possibly be good for Conley can it? Once people start changing stories things start to look quite murky.
I’m curious what your analysis of the situation is.
There was oral sex involved, not sure if that counts?
Yeah, thought the original reports said there was oral sex. Or at least that was what the witnesses told the diamond draft or whatever guy who was linked from here. Not positive that the latest statement from the lawyer contradicted that.
Original story was consensual oral sex, and he kicked her out after he was happy. She wasn’t.
but if I recall, the original, original story was that they started to have intercourse and then she protested. Then we started reading all the other accounts. Its not looking good per a rape kit and now him admitting they did have sex. Just will become a he said/she said now esp if the accounts turned out to be false.
I believe that was her side of the story. Conley’s side wasn’t released until just before the draft.
Just a bad position for him to put himself in all around; as fun as he thought the whole scenario would be, it turned into a nightmare for him. And if he did rape her, then she’s already experienced the nightmare and will continue to do so until she can overcome the experience.
Not according to Bill Clinton.
SteveH –
The principal disadvantage we share is we’re getting 2nd-hand reports of what reputed witnesses and Conley have allegedly said.
So it’s premature to draw any provable conclusions — except, your’re right, changing your story is B-A-D.
One thing is clear to me — if I was the prosecutor.
I’d be contacting the NFL HQ in NYC and asking, as a matter of courtesy . . .
(1) that they advise every team to preserve all notes of conversations with Conley and persons spoken to about this incident,
(2) that they advise every team to preserve all communications and materials received from Conley’s agent or lawyer regarding this incident,
(3) that they advise every team to be prepared to identify all persons who spoke to Conley and anyone else about the incident,
(4) that they be prepared to be interviewed about (1), (2), and (3), and
(5) that the be prepared to produce everything in (1), (2), and (3).
Also, I’d call OSU’s president and making these requests myself.
And I’d call every NFL team myself just to be sure they know we’re interested and what we want.
_____________
I’ll be very curious to see how far the Cuyahoga County DA’s office goes in trying to obtain all this information — if at all (DA’s offices generally are not run like or staffed like U.S. Attorney’s Offices).
True, the case is in Ohio. But legal process can be obtained in other jurisdictions to compel cooperation.
_____________
My advice at the start, if I was Conley’s lawyer, was SETTLE NOW.
Even if he paid $500,000, or $1 million, the case would be over.
(alleged victim declines to cooperate, etc)
Very expensive and costly in America to obtain justice.
$1/ 2- 1million? Wow. Remind me to keep it in my pants.
“Nine of the first 33 were cornerbacks or safeties.
By the time Day 2 was over, 29 DBs had been taken out of the first 107 picks.
By the time that entire draft was over, 32 corners and 24 safeties were selected, meaning just over 20 percent of all drafted players were in the secondary.”
This makes me worry about Rasul making it at the next level. So many corners in this draft it becomes a numbers game and then by the mid rounds, it almost started to feel like late round picks at corner. Hope Im wrong, but the weaknesses in this class for me will potentially be him and the WRs they picked.
That’s how things played out in this draft- it’s really not fair to compare prospects from year to year because of the variations of positional strength from year to year. Corners definitely went off the board quickly, which pushed other prospects down. Would you feel better if he was a 4th round pick next year, but still produced?
Ill feel better if he produces at all. Why I said below, Im almost more hopeful on CJ Smith and Grymes taking a step forward. Depends also on how much stock you put into where guys get slotted in drafts like you said.
Agreed. While it’s all good and fine that Jones was rated as a Top 15 pick before his selection, we will need his services. If our pass rush can produce even a few more sacks and pressures, that will do wonders for our secondary.
This is why having a strong safety duo is important; if the CB’s get beat off of the line, the safeties should pick up the responsibilities. By then, our line should get home.
If one of those things don’t happen, it’s going to be burnt toast season again in our “No Fly Zone”
No doubt, they all play off each other. A team can be fine with a bit slower corners but everything else, scheme and other players have to make it all work.
Very true. Just look at the success of The Legion of Boom when they were starting sherm and Byron Maxwell at corner, neither would be considered amongst the faster NFL corners yet they were complimented with the perfect safeties and formed One of the most elite secondaries of the last 10 years. Malcolm Butler Is another successful young corners who don’t have blazing speed.
..
Same goes for WRs, plenty of which play a lot faster than they test like a Jarvis Landry
I personally couldn’t disagree more about Douglass, Hollins, and Gibson. I think they will be strong to potentially great NFL players for the birds. They are 3 of my favorite picks of the crop.
I think Gerry and Pump have the highest hills to climb in order to be successes – with Jones added in for injury/recover risk potential issue. *** i think all of them have a chance to succeed and I’m a believer in each. Just saying…
I like Pumphrey but agree on Gerry, hes a project. I do like the DT we took late. Im hopeful on the WRs. I find it interesting that so many complain about Mills and his speed etc after one rookie season. Then on the same note are high on a guy like Douglas who also lacks speed but has instincts. We shall see, this is just my guess on this draft class. Hope they all turn out of course.
I hear you, but Douglass trumps Mills coming out of college in terms of size, physicality, and interceptions. His production in college – including stats – QBR v. him… etc… shows that he’s a HELL of a lot more than just a “slow CB” (Richard Sherman had the same knock on him coming into the league).
Douglas had a few “right place right time” INT’s last year- Mills is and was the much more accomplished secondary player when compared with Douglas when coming out of school.
Not sure about that, I looked to see their speeds and in basic draft profiles it looked like the edge was to Douglas actually. Like Rel said, bigger but similar speed and some better tangibles. Close though, thats why I brought it up as a comparison. It is hard to judge corners coming into the league
Mills started 13 games as a true freshman; 13 his sophomore; 12 as a safety and 1 at CB as a junior; he missed 6 games his senior year. So roughly, 45 starts throughout his college career- and he played all over the field. In the SEC. At LSU.
Douglas red shirted his freshmen year; played JUCO level in 2013 and 2014, and then transferred to WVU. He played in 5 games in 2015 and 13 in 2016.
The comparison (at least, speaking in terms of experience) isn’t close. Mills played all over the LSU secondary and faced a very high level of competition (including his own teammates).
ahh thats right, Douglas had that weird start and worked his way up. I was strictly just reading profiles
I believe it. In the year where I am excited to add players to the secondary, it felt like 9 out of 10 picks before ours were from the positions we wanted.
Isn’t that always the case?
I think this type of reasoning implies that GMs are able to stack rank the available DB talent. They can’t, not even close. That’s why DB is such a hard position to draft.
4/22 or 18% of starters are DBs. It’s not far off from 20%.
And if consider teams play a lot of nickel…
If it hasn’t been reported yet: Former #Hokies QB Jerod Evans signed with the #Eagles. Did shortly after the draft. Upside developmental QB
https://twitter.com/OptimumScouting/status/859459005428756482
Nice, he left college early to support his family. Glad he got signed even if it wouldn’t have been us.
Apparently we signed Jerod Evans as well. I like this move. We desperately need to develop a competent backup QB so we can stop paying 8 million dollars a year to clipboard holders.
McGloin is better off for that spot if/when we move Foles.
with No GM in place, who is making the decision on whether the bills will pick up Sammy Watkins 5th year option or not? The owner or first time head coach?
I am.
And we decline. Sammy has been great for us, and we will see about getting him a contract extension. But, we will have to wait and see if he is able to stay healthy and produce for us like we all (including Sammy) expect him too.
ISNT he rumored to be a fat overweight slob these days?
Spread every rumor we want; heard he cut his dreadlocks off too, and we all know what that means…………
Who would have thought that we ended up with the CORRECT brother this time! Great job, Jaylen!
That 5th year option is more expensive than that of WR like ODB/Kelvin Benjamin. Not an easy decision. You would think they would want their Next era GM to make that decision, but the backwards ass Bills DONT have a GM and its May lol
.
Bills are giving the Browns a run for their money these days as most dysfunctional, along with the Bears of course
Bills just declined his 5th year option, per NFL
They can’t trade him.
That would be the GMs job.
Well said. . Certainly not me. . I thought Brother Sammy was considered to be the surest of the sure things
I heard from a friend that McDermott wants to bring in the assistant GM he knew in Carolina.
Aziz Shittu and Dom Williams (who?) were released
Now my original 53 man roster projection is down a guy. Shuttu’d the bed.
that was like a full year in the making, and you mispelled the punchline dude
Lucky ninja edit is ready to rock.
Dunno if anyone has done a depth chart yet. But the drafted players i dont see any of them put on the PS squad. Someone is gonna be cut or traded to make room. Thats my thinking
DE Barnett. Depth Graham, Curry, Long, Smith, Means, McCalister
CB Jones. Depth Mills, Douglas, Robinson, Brooks, Grymes, Smith
CB Douglas. Depth see Jones.
WR Hollins. Depth Jeffery, Smith, Matthews, DGB, Aglohor, Gibson, Turner, Treggs
RB Pumphrey. Depth Matthews, Smallwood, Sproles, Marsall, Watson, Clement
WR Gibson. Depth see Hollins.
DT Qualls. Depth Cox, Jernigan, Allen, Vaeao
Keep extra players in these position its gonna effect how many other positions can keep. OL even more numbers.
Gerry smells like a cut / practice squad designee as was the intended case with Countess last year.
Oh thats who i forgot Gerry lol
Kendricks, Kumier-Hill, Bradham, Goode, Hick, Walker. If Hicks or Bradham get injured think we could be in trouble. Walker showed promise before injury. Maybe he slides over n they get rid of Kendricks.
Thats 6 LBs 7 including Gerry.
Wasn’t Marshall listed over as a WR before the draft
I think they were up to some position moving tricks.
My guess is IR candidate.
I was reading an article about how much better Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are than the clown QBs that were drafted early this year and ran across Orlando Brown Jr., OT / Oklahoma. He’s 6’8″ and they have him listed at 340. That’s comical. He’s damn near 4 bills. He’s big. Real big. And his father was the guy who wrecked the ref who blinded him with the penalty flag.
https://cdn2.newsok.biz/cache/r960-8cdd3a20357c7c6ce48d94a5e96c7383.jpg
Link broken.
ack. I’ll edit.
So it seems to still be able to be clicked, but won’t display on here. Odd.
He’s just a genetic freak is all
and then the original.
cdn2.newsok.biz/cache/r960-8cdd3a20357c7c6ce48d94a5e96c7383.jpg
Charles signs with Broncos
Good move.
https://twitter.com/Mills_Island/status/858781368020602881
It’s not like he could get any worse right?
I can’t kill Mills, or any rookie corner for that matter, because of how stupid the NFL’s 5 yard contact and holding rules are on DBs. I’ll be all over Mills if he’s not better.
Agree the contact rules on receivers are out of hand. I’m 100% for penalties for hits on QBs, leading with the helmet, all of that -those are about protecting players. The contact rules are about turning it into Madden.
With some help, hopefully Mills_Island is a little more Alcatraz and a little less Treasure Island ride at Disney.
Carlin, Pryor, A_T_G.
Jalen Mills is the most unreasonably overconfident player I can think of.
Would that qualify as a Trumpian trait?
What did you expect from a rookie?
Tre Boston on the market. Liked him quite a bit out of college. No, ATG, no jokes with Boston Market… Ive been on this site too long
Lol!
Fun to watch this guy run. That spin move is crazy.
https://youtu.be/s4IeeBgJxPw
What are the chances of all the UDFAs, we sign two from Shepard? What’s up with that?
They worked out at the WVU pro day.
So we signed or drafted everyone who was there that day? Must’ve been a good day.
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