False Positives
Posted: October 25th, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 195 Comments »The Denver Broncos started the 2009 season 6-0. Rookie coach Josh McDaniels seemed to make all the right moves. Kyle Orton was a veteran QB who knew to feed the ball to RB Knowshon Moreno and WR Brandon Marshall. The defense was led by Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey. That wasn’t a great roster, but was talented.
After the 6-0 start came the bye week. And lots of praise. McDaniels was being hailed as the next great NFL coach and the players were already making plans on going to the Pro Bowl. Denver went just 2-8 the rest of the season. The team did not handle success well and when adversity hit, they fell apart. They lost four games by 18 or more points. Talk about an implosion.
Last year the Vikings began 5-0 and then had their bye week. They came out of the bye and went 3-8 the rest of the way. What happened? Minnesota played unsustainable football early on. They only had one turnover in the 5-0 start. They had 12 takeaways. After the bye week, the Vikings had 15 turnovers and 15 takeaways. The defense played well all year, but the offense needed to avoid mistakes and make just enough plays to win. You need a lot to go right in order to sustain that and they couldn’t do it.
There are plenty of other teams who have gotten off to hot starts and then faded down the stretch. Can the Eagles sustain their 6-1 start? What would make them different?
The Eagles do feel different to me.
They went 7-9 in 2016 and were highly competitive in many of the losses. They were only a handful of plays from going to the playoffs. Doug Pederson inherited a good infrastructure when he took over the team and then did a good job of making improvements. He put together a really strong coaching staff and got the whole team on the same page.
Pederson wasn’t faced with completely rebuilding a team like someone taking over the Niners or Browns would be after this year. Pederson saw that and was smart enough to leave some things alone. He wasn’t as interested in putting Doug Pederson’s stamp on things as he was having the Eagles play well and win games.
This season’s success started last year. With Lane Johnson in the lineup, the Eagles were 5-1 in 2016. That wasn’t a fluke. With a rookie QB and mediocre skill players, you needed top OL play to win. When Johnson got suspended, the team was good enough to compete, but just wasn’t able to win games.
Howie Roseman and Joe Douglas improved the roster this year. Pederson and his staff have gotten returning players to play at a much higher level. Nelson Agholor is playing like a 1st round pick. Carson Wentz is playing like a franchise QB. Zach Ertz looks like the star TE we’ve been waiting to see for a couple of years. These are legitimately talented players playing at a high level.
The Eagles have great leadership. Wentz is a natural leader and the other players feed off him. Malcolm Jenkins is a tremendous leader. Everyone in that locker room respects him. Pederson has done a masterful job of creating the right environment for this team. This isn’t just 53 guys wearing green jerseys. This is a team.
One of the biggest keys to winning this year is situational football. The Eagles lead the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage. They are third in Red Zone conversions. Turnovers can involve some luck. Do you recover a fumble? Does a batted ball go to a defender or fall to the ground? 3rd downs and RZ play aren’t lucky. You have success there because of execution, and that is something that doesn’t just go away.
Injuries are starting to mount for the Eagles, but this team has handled every challenge so far. You don’t lose Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks without feeling it, but I just don’t see an epic collapse coming. I can’t see this group going 2-7 or something like that.
As long as Pederson keeps his players focused, Wentz stays healthy and Agholor doesn’t ride a time machine back to 2016, I expect this team to keep winning games and playing good football.
*****
The Eagles are huge favorites on Sunday. Jimmy Bama says to watch out, that type of game has been trouble for the Eagles in recent years.
The Birds are favored by 13 points, the most they’ve been favored by in a game since 2011, when they were 14-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals.
They lost that game to freaking John Skelton, who threw for 315 yards and 3 TDs. In fact, dating back to 2006, the Eagles are 5-5 when they have been double-digit favorites, and have lost four of their last six.
The Joe Webb game? The John Skelton game?
Thanks for depressing me, Bama. Now I’m going to go binge eat some pudding and try to get the nightmares to go away.
_
The big difference between these Eagles and the 2016 Vikings or 2009 Broncos is QB play. Regardless of how good he ultimately ends up being, Wentz is playing like a top 5 QB right now and neither Orton nor Bradford ever sniffed that level of performance. When you have a guy capable of making multiple game changing plays every week, it can cover up for a lot of other flaws and gives you a much bigger margin for error. When is the last time a team with a QB playing this well collapsed down the stretch?
Even leaving that aside, though, I don’t think this is a false positive. Look at all the stats, both classic and advanced, that correlate with success, and the Eagles measure up well on almost all of them. They’re top 10 in yards both running and passing on offense, they have the league’s longest streak of putting up 20+ points and a big positive point differential, they convert third downs at the best rate in the league and are almost as good at converting red zone opportunities, they rank highly in DVOA, their defense can stuff the run, rush the passer, and generate turnovers, etc. By any objective measure they appear to be an excellent team and I don’t see any reason to suspect that will change barring a run of catastrophic injuries that completely cripple the roster as it is currently constituted.
Going to disagree here. Wentz is playing like a top 2 qb :). And he’s still growing/learning. Which is crazy right now because you HAVE TO SIT A ROOKIE QB MINIMUM 3 YEARS ON THE BENCH TO LEARN! YOU HAVE TO! IF YOU START HIM HIS 1ST YEAR YOU WILL RUIN HIM. RUIN HIM I SAY! :).
Well, the Mannings proved that wasn’t the case. It’s different with every QB.
I don’t really see us falling apart, but there’s a good chance we’ll pick up some losses none of us want to. We’ve won a lot of close games, which requires luck. That isn’t sustainable over time. That being said, you can get lucky and win more than you “should.” I think this team is a Superbowl contender.
If they continue to win at this clip they’d finish 14-2 or 13-3. I don’t think they’re that good, so yeah I think it’s likely we pick up a few more losses in the second half of the season than we have in the first. But I still think 10-6 is probably a realistic floor at this point, with 11-5 or even 12-4 more likely.
Re: close games, we’ve been in control in the second half in every one of our victories this year. The Giants and Chargers made late runs, but those were both games the Eagles controlled for a majority of the game which would’ve required everything to go right in the second half for the other team to win, not evenly fought games that were neck-and-neck throughout. I still think we win those more often than not.
my motto – just make the playoffs – anything can happen…
I probably read your posts the most. Reading “I think this team is a Superbowl contender’ – speaks volumes….
“Pederson wasn’t faced with completely rebuilding a team like someone taking over the… Browns would be after [EVERY] year.”
Tommy, there are some names that should never be spoken or written for the general well-being of Eagles fans:
Mike McMahon, Danny Watkins, Ronnie Brown, and Todd Pinkston for instance.
Also on that list:
Joe Freaking Webb
Thank you for observing that rule in the future.
Ernie Sims, Juan the DC,
should be added as well
How about the 2012 version of the wide 9. That would be wide open…as in matador…wide 9.
Ernie Sims? How dare you speak ill of “the shark in the water”!
Too bad the games weren’t played in the water. He wasn’t very effective on land.
+1
The double agent Steve Smith
..and DeMarco Murray.
Rich Kotite. And he’s certainly relevant to this post.
Jason Babin, Mark Simoneau, Joe Jurevicius, Ricky Manning Jr… Eagles fans could do this all day.
Hey now… Don’t mess with Simoneau. He was the second best kicker that one game! 😉
speaking of Joe Webb, I would love to hear Shah8’s thoughts on Wentz.
Something that is not being talked about much is that this Sunday the forecast calls for steady rain throughout the game. I don’t like this at all. it hurts our ability to throw the ball and in those conditions turnovers are likely and those type of fluke things can really help a major underdog like SF who despite being 0-7 has lost 5 games by 3 points or less. This may be a 13-10 type of game.
I think Pederson dials up a lot of runs on Sunday.
I do too. I can see a highly motivated offensive line becoming cohesive as it incorporates Big V into the club. At least that’s my hope.
Rain doesn’t usually affect the short passing game, but the long ball will tend to flatten out and wobble – it’s hard to practice that. I expect a lot of runs and dink&dunk!
Hope you’re right for Smallwood fantasy purposes…
Not guaranteeing weather won’t be a problem, but it was 90, sunny and beautiful in Santa Clara today and Wentz did play in North Dakota. So may not be much of a problem for some that might be used to it. (And to be fair, Bethard played at Iowa.)
Not a false positive. This defense is freaking legit. Offense has these nasty ten yard pass plays. unstoppable.
With the exception of Wentz pulling out some miracles, the only thing that make sme believe that this success is repeatable is that we aren’t doing it with only one player. Barnett has a good night. Then Cox has a good night. Then Blount has a good night. Then Agholor has a good night. We’re not relying on a single star to carry us.
If you would have told me last year that Ags would be leading the team in touchdowns, I’ d have told you to put down the cracks pipe.
Thanks Tommy!
It’s easy for all those “regression to the mean” types of naysayers to predict that the Eagles will go 1-6 over the next 7 games. Especially with a couple more key injuries.
They would suggest that after 14 games the Eagles will have collapsed, reverted to a .500 record, and go into Christmas at 7-7 with 2 games left.
But we know that the roster is solid, the coaches are thorough, and these wins are not due to a bunch of fluke plays. The Eagles are a talented bunch playing winning football!
Can’t wait until we take our 8-1 record into Dallas and flatten the Cowboys! Go Eagles!
Can’t ignore injuries. As T-Law posted above – 1 guy – LJ went down last year and the Eagles suffered. Eagles lost top LT and top MLB. Talent on this roster took a big hit. Doesn’t mean they can’t continue winning – but also means – can’t take too many more hits to injuries. Has to do with reality and not ‘negative’….
Nobody’s ignoring injuries, but people ARE ignoring that Hicks and Peters have already both missed significant time this season and the team’s performance didn’t suffer that much. We don’t really have reason to believe that the dropoff from these two to Kendricks and Vaitai will be crippling based on how those players have already performed when pressed into duty this season.
post above sounds like 15 guys can go on IR and Eagles will be fine. Key players miss time all the time. Step in and finishing a game or a covering a game or 2 is one thing…this is the rest of the season. Can’t say with utmost confidence that level of play won’t go down. Now, if their back ups get injured? Hicks is pretty darn good…but again – this isn’t being negative – just stating obvious points…
Obviously things reach a breaking point, and if half your starting lineup is composed of replacement-level street players you’re going to be in trouble.
But the Eagles have shown that they *can* weather the loss of Hicks and Peters. They have already played the equivalent of multiple games without those guys this year, and remained competitive. I actually think it’s easier to fill in as a starter for the rest of the season than it is for one half or one week – both Kendricks and Vaitai will now prepare for each game as starters, get starters’ reps in practice, starter level attention from the coaching staff, etc. as opposed to being expected to go into the game “cold” and perform.
Are you predicting that the Eagles won’t win the NFC East and that they won’t win a playoff berth now..?
Reality is reality. But interpretation can be negative or positive. No need for lots of negative interpretation with this so far.
It’s a challenge, no doubt. But it’s not like the season is doomed. You should pay attention to the way some people post (not necessarily here, though). The “defense is about to cave in” and the “O line is about to collapse” to listen to some, all over Hicks and Peters.
Last year the team was marginal. When LJ went out, game over. Just like Tommy said – not good enough in many other areas to withstand that. This year, Peters will be missed, but his young backups are ready to step up.
The young QB is ready to check at the line for any obvious problems. And he can make additional protection calls. And receivers will catch the ball on hot reads more, like Ertz and Agholor have already proven.
The team can handle this. This is not 2016. Far from it.
Knowshon sucks!
https://twitter.com/CutonDime25/status/386982040635473920
As long as Wentz is up right and our dline remains intact, we should continue to win games.
Off topic – (but not really)… Coaching matters. I was(still?) one of those pounding their chest about the dislike for Pederson. My opinion on him is mainly based on him – and not his coaching. when you look around the league at some teams who did well last year(Atlanta) or did poorly(Rams) and compare them to this year – one main reason for success or failure is the coach. This applies to redskins as well. Here’s to hoping the eagles staff stays intact for awhile…
you dislike Doug, but because of him personally and not his coaching? well what is then, does he order his steak well done? Does he think JarJar Binks is the best Star Wars character? Does he owe you money?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjfuTn6d1ZU
a lot of professionals in sports are dicks – but I respect their game…
You aren’t an NFL exec in a press room. This is a comment section filled with anonymous people, you can be direct, shoot your shot.
Three reasons there won’t be this kind of regression: Giants, Bears, and 49ers. Two wins over the remaining 6 teams (Dallas twice), puts the Eagles at 11-5. The loss of Peters and Hicks is big, but not big enough to ruin our playoff run and likely high seed.
I saw Bears and was hoping you’d finish with “Beets, Battlestar Galactica”…
http://previously.tv/m/kotm-dwightjim-full.jpg
There are no automatic wins. The Eagles barely beat the Giants last time in Philly. The Bears have already beaten Steelers and the Panthers and they were close to beating the Falcons.
This “we almost lost to the Giants” Crap needs to end. Context people…context. The only reason it was close was the number of in-game injuries completely depleting our defense. That was an anomaly.
Green-tinged glasses, dude. They’re all getting paid to play football, even the guys on the other side.
What a cliche. They don’t all get paid the same because they aren’t all as good.
Since you like cliches “almost doesn’t count” and “you are what you record says you are”
We beat the Giants, deserved to be the Giants, and our record reflex that. There is no reason for anyone to say “we almost lost to the Giants” again.
My point is, everyone in the NFL is good, and also, everyone in the NFL is injured. The Eagles are better than NY, but they’re far from a juggernaut. It’s not treason to point that out, so maybe get off the soapbox and chill? Just a suggestion.
My point is that people use that game to point out that this team is easily beatable. The way people talk about that game makes it feel like a losss.
We are only easily beatable if 1/3 of our defense gets injured during that game. If not the other team better bring their A game.
We are the only team in the league this year that has come out and played consistently good football. I’m proud of that. When is the last time we could say that here in Philly? So I will defend that any time someone points out how close the Giants game was without the context of how it got close in the first place. It honestly pisses me off. It’s my Kenjon Barner (MM)
Fair enough, we all get to have our Kenjon Barners. I also think we’re all thrilled with how the Iggles are playing and having a great time with this.
I’m not sure if you read the whole comment or only saw where I said “we almost lost to the Giants.” The reason I said that is to point out that the games listed above (Giants, Bears, and 49ers) are not automatic wins and we can’t assume that we will win all of them. I agree that we are better than the Giants (as well as the Bears and 49ers) and we definitely deserved the win against the Giants. I am very positive about this team and our chances going forward. But,in the NFL you can’t assume anything. You mentioned the injuries against the Giants. One of those injuries was to Hicks, who is now out for the season. How do we know that injuries might not cost us a game we should win down the line?
My entire point was that we can’t just assume that those three games are wins. That’s it. I’m not saying the Eagles aren’t a good team. Chill.
It’s not really I recited at you. Everyone acts like we were lucky to win that game. The Giants were very lucky to even make it close.
To your point eagles fan knows the any given Sunday principle. We get yearly reminders from our beloved birds.
I realistically expect us to go 12-4. I think Carson and his comeptitiveness greatly reduce our chances of losing to inferior teams. He has the ability to will our team to victory when we’re arent at our best.
I firmly believe we will be headed to dallas 8-1 with a chance to lock up the division down in Jerry World
“This isn’t just 53 guys wearing green jerseys. This is a team.”
What a great time to be an Eagles fan.
I fully expect the Eagles to lose one of the next two games. I think in the modern age of NFL parity, what defines good teams is that they mostly win the games that they “should” win. And while I think this Eagles team is showing that they’re that type of good team, I don’t think they’re a juggernaut. They’re going to have a clunker, and they’re not going to be good enough to overcome it and will lose a game they “shouldn’t.”
That said, if I had to put money on which game they’re more likely to lose out of the next two, it’d be the Broncos game. AFC opponent. Week before the bye. Stout defense. Young, journeyman QB (sigh, as Jimmy shows, this has been like kryptonite to the Eagles historically). Not much is going to convince me that game will be a win, especially if the Eagles beat the Niners this week.
But if they do lose to the Broncos, it’s not going to change my opinion of the team. They are what their record says they are.
helps to be at home for both games. I’d say we have a good chance to win both games.
Don’t know why you can’t be convinced the Eagles can beat the Broncos at the Linc at this point. You should expect it unless they come in flat. At which point you should let the birds have it.
it’s better they lose the AFC game, if they are going to lose one.
None of us know if this is a false positive or not and will not until the season is over. This team may “feel” different, but there is still a lot of hope instead of fact in that.
The problem with sports is you can do everything very well and still not win due to the many factors outside of the team’s control:
-Our Injuries
-Ref calls
-Opponent’s injuries
-League suspensions
-Off the field incidents
-Lucky bounces
-Weather
If Elliott is suspended and misses both games against us, that is a huge factor in our favor. If Wilson gets injured and misses Seattle’s game against us, same as above. If Jenkins or Cox or Wentz or Ertz go down for any sizable stretch of games, that is a big blow to our chances. This is why the team needs to play week by week and not look any further ahead. Each game is a mini-season and if you can go 1-0 in enough of them, you’ll be in good shape.
I also have to disagree again with Lane being the main reason we started 5-1 and went 2-8 later. There are plenty of other reasons we started strong and flopped after 6 games:
-Our CB sucked balls and got exploited big time
-Our pass rush lost effectiveness due to team’s adjusting to a quick release pass game and Schwartz refused to blitz
-Our DL was not as deep and talented as it is now
-Outside of PITT, we played mediocre to bad teams to start the season
-Our run game was limited and our pass game poor
-Wentz was a rookie QB learning on the fly
I definitely, as I think we all are, of thinking the Eagles can keep up this streak. BUT I also dont seem them flaming out, because of their efficiency and tough play. Like you said, converting on 3rd down is huge and not lucky. That type of stuff will continue to happen and I think the Eagles have a great chance of being 8-1 going into the bye. Maybe even losing to the Broncos and going 7-2 would be a better reality check going into the bye…..def need to win this week though.
The exciting part is if we can take care of the next two games, we can pretty much lock up the NFC East the week after the bye.
Next 3 games
WASHINGTON: Dal, Sea, MN
COWBOYS: Was, KC, Atl
Yup, playing the last place schedule does help
the only concerning spot left on the schedule is going traveling to Seattle then traveling to LA, and then going to going to New York for a tough division game that plays better than their record.
Could be a slide there, so we’d best take care of business next month
Agreed, Rams are better than expected and Seattle is still decent especially at home.
Yeah I really don’t like that New York gets a crack at us after traveling down the Oregon trail and back…twice. Hopefully not too many of our guys die from dysentery.
The team is staying on the west coast and practicing there, instead of coming back east again.
oh cool, is that common practice?
Those will both be tough games, but let’s not act like either team is invincible. The Rams are still starting an inexperienced QB and Seattle’s offensive line is horrendous and does not match up well with our DL at all. Both of those teams are likely looking at the Eagles as a tough opponent.
Seattle doesn’t start getting serious until the second half. Expect them to be firing on all cylinders by the time we get there.
Regardless, I like the way our DL matches up against their OL. And Wentz vs Wilson will be a show.
Bears suck but Carolina wasn’t exactly a cupcake.
It is not a criticism to point out we have a last place schedule, just a fact. Any advantage can help us get where we want to go.
2 games homie… that’s it. #analysis
Being able to play CHI instead of ATL or MN is a big advantage. As we know, one win or loss can mean making or missing the playoffs.
CAR is a harder opponent, but again compared to Dallas having to play GB, I’d rather play CAR every time.
I guess I’m just not impressed because any NFC south team seems to be a “coin flip” away from another talent wise, but I do think you can say that Green Bay is definitively stronger than the Bears… still that’s 6.25% of your schedule, and at the end of the day it comes down to a teams ability to take care of business within their own division.
I just hope Sunday will not prove to be an example of why football isn’t played “on paper.”
GB without Rodgers is not quite the same team.
Is that the Carolina that lost to the Bears?
No, the “pre-Eagles” Carolina team… you know the one with a legit QB (as opposed to the one with the oline and QB who were ground into dust and then had to do anything other than rest/recover for a month after facing the best Dline in the league).
OR…Panthers are as dependent on the play of Kuechly as Packers are on Rodgers.
We broke Cam.
Actually, our biggest advantage is that we don’t have to play two games against the only NFCE team with a winning record.
Yup; at that point we’ll be positioning for the number 1 seed, a home playoff game and a bye week.
I think this team has the moxie to play anyone, anywhere. That bye week would be huge if we could earn it going into the playoffs.
Why are you assuming those are losses, you NegaWashingtonian/NegaDallassian?
What do you guys know about the 49ers. The only thing I know is we are much better so we should win, except for the off “any given Sunday” chance.
But we know they have generally been in really close games until last week. What makes them competitive? Do they have any strengths to exploit our weaknesses to make this a tougher game than it seems on paper?
See kempski article
yeah he published that about 2 hours after I posted. Sounds like we match up pretty favorably. Simple formula of beat them in the trenches and win.
Sheil wrote up an All-22 article on Vaitai where he showed that he played pretty well, and the mistakes are minor.
One play he over aggressively moved outside of the DE on a stretch block without getting up field and the defender jumped inside of him to smoke Blount. Later he overcompensated and didn’t get far enough outside to make a hole for Smallwood.
In both cases, Shiel quoted Geoff Schwartz reviewing the plays and saying that his footwork looks good and he finishes the blocks strong. The problems seemed to be ones of comfort and getting into the flow.
He was generally a bit upright and slow to engage in the run game.
It’s understandable, especially given some of the DE splits when you’ve got a WR tight or TE over there, you’re 3 yards away from a 270lbs dude who runs a 4.7. It’s a tough moving target.
It’s something he’s going to have to work to improve on as he develops.
He had a few nice run blocks as well. That key 3rd down conversion on the 6 yard Clement run late in the game for example he pretty much bulldozed Mason Foster. Still, any good run blocking we get from him is a bonus. As long as he’s not a liability on Wentz’s blind side I’ll be happy.
He is going to need to play his best football. As Lane Johnson said, there is no where to hide him, the best pass rusher on every team is going to come after him (whether we put him at LT or RT). Unfortunately our RB’s aren’t very good in pass pro (Sproles was by far our best at it).
I think the formula will be, bring extra men so we can’t help Vaitai and test the RB blocking: get lots of hits on Wentz
WAS used that strategy anyways. Eagles struggles early were in large part due to using alot of tight formations or heavy personnel, brought more defenders in and around the box and made hiding all the crap they were bringing up the middle easier.
Eagles had more success once they started to spread WAS out.
I assumed it was all to get after our RB’s.
I was surprised that a big physical guy like Blount really isn’t that good at it. Any insights on what’s going on there?
He seems to be more effective in the I with Wentz under center so he can get a full head of steam to hit or make a hole.
On MNF, it seemed like they used him more in the zone read setup with Wentz in shotgun. He gets the hand off and gets to the LOS or hit before he can get up to ramming speed. His footwork in those tight spaces is not great either.
We’re talking about blocking, not running.
He has never really played on third down because he’s not a huge threat in the passing game.
So nobody has likely ever really made him do it, because in all likelyhood if he’s in the game and youre passing it’s probably PA and you’re ramming him up into the line as a decoy.
More than anything RB pass pro is pretty much all effort and technique.
Getting rid of the ball quickly on pass plays and running the ball effectively will not only help V get acclimated and warmed up, but should limit the chances for mistakes in pass pro especially. The long developing pass plays may need to be curtailed a little until V is up to speed.
Thanks for a verbal recount of a media service I am not motivated enough to pay for. If you do this often enough, I will owe you.
If my 5 sentence summary of the all-22 footage explained by a former lineman and a professional writer is all you need, I accept cash or cashier checks.
What’s the equivalent in up votes?
Good non blg, bgn article with same conclusion.
1994.
great year for movies.
Did anyone watch the Body Bag game special on CSN last night? Barkann, Didinger and Seth supposedly were the hosts. It was definitely a game Joyner relished 🙂
I was just advising a younger Eagles fan to go watch that game a few days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq7QTkl-hL8
Interesting about the player development program. Very smart.
Power rankings are always a curious and subjective thing, but football outsiders have us going from #2 to #4 in their formula after winning. Tough crowd, that formula.
FO is not really that subjective, since it’s based on a formula and not the judgment of a random writer. We dropped less than 1%, while PITT and LARM had monster games and so moved up.
*there is some subjectivity in that each play is graded according to their criteria–down and distance, etc–by volunteers, and there could be mistakes or judgment calls on drops, etc, but nothing close to mainstream sources that base their rankings on recent wins, “clutch,” “momentum,” and “swagger.”
Eh. Changing subjective assessments into numbers does not magically make them objective. Mostly, their assessments are subjective. They’re just at least based on something tangible, as opposed to the catchwords you mention. But it doesn’t make them any more objective than, say, Tommy’s evaluations of individual players in his DGR. Tommy just isn’t dishonest enough to change his opinions into numbers.
Bill, I don’t think you’re using those words correctly. If you come up with a formula and run regression analysis and it correlates with winning, and then you plug the actual data into that formula, you are indeed being objective. FO’s predictions may not be better than writers (they are, of course, but so are much simpler formulae), and E=mc2 may turn out to be false, but that does not mean that they were (in hindsight) subjective.
It is true that assumptions are inherent in the premises of the formula, but that doesn’t make it subjective and therefore equivalent to the gut reactions of writers. The latter is subjective. Objective is _not_ synonymous with _truth_, that oh-so-difficult to agree upon concept.
I mean, the Rams blew out a struggling Cardinals team that lost their starting QB halfway through, and Pittsburgh was played close by a weak Cincy team before pulling away in the second half. Neither one of those exactly blows me away, and honestly I think our win was against a much higher quality opponent than either of them.
I guess the point is, you can’t just dismiss subjective aspects of evaluation simply because talking head nimrods abuse the shit out of cliches.
For instance in music, their is no objective formula that tells you which musicians are “better” than other musicians, it’s purely the subjective experience of those listening, and collectively based on that subjective experience we decide who gets the plaudits and who gets to wait tables while going back to school for their business degree.
Same thing with football, simply going off the numbers doesn’t tell the whole story.
“Same thing with football, simply going off the numbers doesn’t tell the whole story.”
Sure, I’d agree 100%. That being said, the whole point of numbers is to see the hidden things that aren’t obvious to a) casual fan, b) football guy, and even c) smart writer guy. The point of looking for objective measures is to see beyond our very human biases. I am all for using both and not dismissing either (except for people who are proven to be idiots or consistently wrong, like for example Peter King).
And in turn. “Who is the greatest musician ever? ” is s very different question than “who is the most important musician ever” ..
..
( 1st question trick question, plays to your point of perpetual debate .. 2nd question however is Bob Marley )
Actually, they are the same person, Johann Sebastian Bach. But Bob Marley is a close #2 in the Musician Power Rankings.
Pretty cool answer
Imagine if Bach had heard Marley. . I’m sure Marley must’ve haver listened to Bach.
Swagger is measured by volume, right? I’m fairly certain the Eagles had at least 50 5 gallon buckets of swagger by the end of regulation on Monday night.
You do wonder about the quality of a formula if the #2 team beats the #6 team pretty handily, and yet still fall to #4 after the win.
It’s because other teams had big-time games. The Eagles are good, but they haven’t been consistently dominant or anything.
“…not really that subjective, since it’s based on a formula…”
And who devises the formula? Who decides which terms belong in the formula and which terms don’t? And who decides what weight to assign to each term?
Too many people give too much credence to formulas and/or computer simulations, which are still, ultimately, devised by people. And every person–EVERY person–has blind spots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwil10wiIno
This was fun. Man he just destroys ppl
Very cool. Fletcher plays like he’s having fun out there.
That play where Wentz emerged from that mass of Redskins and Eagles looked like one of those rugby highlights where some guy comes flying out of a scrum.
Was that the WR coach he almost obliterated?
Yep groh
Pretty sure I’d be pissing blood and spending my next few weeks at the Chiropractor if Fletcher Cox did that to me. And I’d probably try to play it cool like Groh afterwards too.
Anyone know why they haven’t IR’d Hicks yet?
From what i heard- pending trade for Luke Kuechly
can we get a noninjured lb
No, Howie has other plans.
That’s a trick question.
Kalinoscopski wins.
And think of Megan Fox. Don’t forget Megan Fox!
I feel like Megan Fox is old news at this point, Tommy needs a humor-crush (I don’t really know what else to call it) for his posts.
How about Olivia Newton-John?
You won’t BELIEVE what she looks like MEOW
Haha. Bert, your age is showing, brother.
Raquel Welch
Ha! That was going to be my next suggestion.
Maybe that chick from Wonder Woman everyone is crazy about.
Gal Gadot. So nice…
At some point T Swift actually became gorgeious. Ill put her name up for Tommy’s new crush.
Old Megan Fox was unbelievably smo kin stardust … new Megan Fox is just routinely hot.
Who’ ever said to her “yes you should get face work done” should be abolished from ever giving advice again.
She did that? Such a shame. Fake beauty is so ugly to me!
She was hot snd had a look! was better than just being hot.
For some strange reason. .. some f’d up reason. .she felt she had to change perfect. ..
And that others participated is Blas fem Eeeeeeeee!
Blame social media!
Megan MF Fox? Haha.
Got to say, it’s not the how many but the who that we’ve lost: Sproles and Peters on offense. Hicks on the defense. Maragos on Special Teams. These are all big time leaders. Guys like Jenkins, Kelce, Celek, and Wentz and their leadership become critical as other leaders go down.
The good news is that with that great leadership establishes a culture that can continue in their absence. So far the Eagles haven’t missed a beat, pretty confident we can pull through. I think the next men up look like they know what to do.
Yes. It is also a test of just how good the coaching staff is. Good coaches are excellent teachers. Their players are ready to play, know what to do, and execute no matter what string or pedigree. Belichick* is the all-time best at this and why he will be a 1st ballot inductee in the Hall-of-Fame.
Exactly! That is why…no matter what happens these first 7 games were no fluke.
North MF Dakota.
What everybody keeps forgetting is that we get Darby back this week or the week after at the latest. I would think it is reasonable to believe that getting him back would offset the loss of Hicks even though he does not play linebacker. Too many people are way to worried, of course if we lose several other starters then it would get very difficult!
Week. After.
Very interesting…will get more interesting when Gathers is ready.
Cowboys promoted TE Blake Jarwin to their roster because Eagles were after him.
This raises questions regarding the plan for Rico Gathers of course, considering he’s now eligible to return to practice — with his eligibility to be activated to the roster coming after Week 8.
So while this saves Jarwin for now, it remains to be seen how it all shakes out next week.
https://247sports.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/Bolt/Cowboys-promote-TE-Blake-Jarwin-to-prevent-signing-with-Eagles-109487584
Wait
Is Blake Jarwin better than Billy MF Brown?!
I liked Blake Jarwin before the draft. The eagles also shows interest in him during the scouting process.
Jarwin is a solid , maybe even good blocker on the move despite being small. Can play a little h back/fullback and pass protect. I’m not sure he’ll ever be much but we have two games vs. Dallas left too.
I wouldn’t mind a guy who can play fb for Blount. I thought Burton would do that at least once a game. Even if he went on a route, the look would be cool…but never happened.
Extra jumbo package, Beau as FB and Seumalo in as TE. Not sure if it’s legal but sounded great in my head.
Not sure why it wouldn’t be legal. You could put Seumalo in at WR if you really wanted to.
Comon’ Doug. do it!
They used Burton as FB at least twice on MNF. It looked like Burton pushed out to the edge instead of leading through the hole, though. They had been using Beau Allen and Gordon for that role.
Also don’t think Celek will be back next year. Plus Burton will be a UFA.
Also interesting this would have been (and still could end up being w/Jarwin) the third time we added a player from an upcoming opponent.
Look I am riding the hype train with everyone else, but im looking out of the window. We lost all those games because lane went out and… Big V came in. Jordan hicks is actually the best MLB I have ever seen play in green. His back ups have not impressed to this point. These things scare me.
On the bright side Big V has done a ton of developing since he took over last year. Doing so vs Wash both times is a great measureing stick. He has also looked vastly better at LT than RT even this year. Michael Kendricks is playing out of his mind, Bradham has looked really good, and the bavk ups have a week of reps. Darby return is imminent.
If the rest of the season is a flop, they arent as good as we thought. I don’t think it will be, but due to those injuries, if it is, I don’t think thw first 7 weeks were fluke.
Wonder if Maclin regrets leaving, he would have been a better #2 WR than Smith.
He’d be actually a nice consolation prize if Jefferey is not back next year.
I’d think about it if we have cap space left.
He’d be cheaper than AJ.
He will also be 30 next summer.
3 years contract?
It’s decent?
99% sure they won’t reach FA
Allen Robinson
Sammy Watkins
Maybes
Jarvis Landry
Davante Adams
John Brown
Paul Richardson
Taylor Gabriel
sammy will be available, allen won’t be
I doubt Sammy will be available. Rams didn’t trade for him without having long term plans. At least that’s what I tell myself…
Maybe, but they are already paying Tavon and Woods.
Plus outside of the SF game he hasn’t been very good.
Tavon is a black hole. Woods is a solid #2. Sammy is a diva crybaby but he’s still their best shot at giving Goff a #1 WR.
Allen Robinson will be coming from a torn ACL.
I am also quite positive most of them will actually hit FA. Nobody screams Franchise Tag.
That’s true but I do believe the Jaguars are a QB away from being serious contenders. They have the cap space to throw money at Robinson to ease their transition from Bortles to whoever.
Also older and brings the same skills as Ags. Maybe if he was willing to play for dirt cheap because I’d rather have Bradham than Maclin at this point.
Ags is a bursty slot WR at this point in his career. That’s not Maclin.
I don’t think Maclin has any good years left in him. He’ll still have solid hands and route running but he looks like he lost a step already.
Sure but you could keep Torrey and get Maclin for a few million dollars. Let Hollins/Gibson/Johnson/Rookie take reps for them as warranted and the whole thing would cost less than what Alshon is going to want.
Torrey is most likely gone after this year. Maclin might save us a decent amount of money but you’ll get what you’ll pay for in Maclin. Not saying that Alshon has performed up to expectations but I want Wentz to have all of the weapons he can get. Which is why I’m not opposed to us taking a WR in the first if we can’t get a quality OT next year.
Parkey just missed his first FG of the year and his first 50+ ever.
Not everyone works out for us, but Howie brings in guys with talent.
Kiko just decapitated Flaco.
Kiko scumbag Alonso.
Don’t really understand why he wasn’t ejected for that cheap shot?!
If you kick him out, there is no chance for retribution…
Definitely dirty and he could have significantly let up. Should have been ejected.
In the other hand, I think some QBs—notably Newton—take advantage of the slide rule. I’ve noted several QBs waiting too long before sliding and then looking for flags when hit. Give yourself up early enough that there’s no question, or do away with the slide rule altogether.
Kiko could have aimed anywhere besides the head and have had an argument here. Flacco was pushing for the first down, so he went further than he should have before sliding. Kiko was trying to prevent the first down with a heavy hit, like Bradham did last week when he got “hurt”. It stopped being defensible as soon as he knocked the damn helmet off of Flacco’s face.
The other thing is Flacco is what 6’5?
So if Kiko hits the QB in the head while sliding, he is doing it on purpose. No one can reasonably claim that Kiko Alonso was trying to tackle Flacco at the knees and then Flacco just happened to slide.
Follewed with some cheap neck shots by Suh to end up the game with a five sure to be coming
And there’s another head shot from Miami.
And a neck shot double cheap shot by Suh
Wu Tang shout out to all the dread lock salesman out there from east coast to west !!
There was talk of shoring up our TE situation next season. Eric Ebron might become available.
I really liked Ebron when he was coming out but no thanks now. He’s still fast but he’s not a blocker.