Game Preview – PIT at PHI

Posted: October 28th, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 3 Comments »

The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003 when they went 6-10. The current team is just 2-5 as they come to Philly to take on the Eagles. This is not a normal Steelers team. Usually they have an outstanding defense, strong ground game and playmakers in the passing game. This year that would be no, no and kind of.

While the Steelers are struggling this year, three of their losses are by six points or less. If one or two plays is different, the team could have a winning record. But as with so many struggling teams, Pittsburgh isn’t making those critical plays. They tend to make critical mistakes.

The team still plays hard. They battle. They compete. Any time you face a Mike Tomlin team you know they’ll fight. They did get overwhelmed by the Bills and lost 38-3. That says more about how good Buffalo is than anything to do with the Steelers.

Rookie QB Kenny Pickett has started three games. He’s been all over the place. You see him complete some difficult throws. You see him handle some clutch situations well. He has a good arm and he’s athletic. Pickett can make plays with his legs. There is a lot to be excited about.

But then you see him throw a pair of INTs late against the Dolphins. Both were bad decisions.

Fearless is good. Reckless is bad. Pickett has shown both qualities as a rookie. If the coaches can get rid of the reckless, they might have their QB of the future. If they can’t do that, Pittsburgh will have a lot of roller coaster games. The concern is that he showed some of the same decision-making issues while in college. He was talented enough to overcome them at that level. The NFL is a whole other story.

Pickett didn’t come into a great situation. The OL isn’t great. The running game is 27th in the league. There are some good pass-catchers, but there isn’t that one guy to build the passing game around. They don’t have AJ Brown.

The Steelers offense is 31st in points, 30th in yards and 24th in DVOA. No matter the metric, they aren’t good. They are 20th in third down percentage. They are 22nd in red zone offense.

The offense can get better. They have a lot of young guys playing, including multiple rookies. All of the key skill players are 26 or younger. The more experience these guys get, the better they can play. The coaches can also figure out how to best use the young talent. We saw last year how much better the Eagles got when the offense shifted to running more. More than a few people feel that offensive coordinator Matt Canada is a big part of the problem so real changes may not happen until the offseason.

To be fair, it can be tough when you’re playing from behind so much. The Steelers have trailed by 10 points in 5 of 7 games. That’s not a formula for winning and it puts a lot of pressure on the offesne.

Steelers QBs are averaging just 6.1 yards per passing attempt. That’s a lot of small ball. They have taken deep shots, but just aren’t connecting on them. They have only one pass play of 40 or more yards. The ground game has been limited as well. They don’t even have a single run of 20 or more yards. Big plays just aren’t happening. When you have to put together long, sustained drives, the offense is going to struggle.

I’m curious to see how the Eagles play them. Will they be aggressive, not fearing the Steelers offense? Will the Eagles play two high safeties, knowing the Steelers struggle to sustain drives?

RB Najee Harris is averaging 3.3 ypc.

Yikes. Harris was hurt this summer and has been getting healthier as the season goes along, but it is hard to say just how much that’s affected his production.

How much of that is blocking? More than a little.

The Steelers OL is actually better at pass protection than run blocking. It feels like that should be the opposite, but that’s not what we’re seeing this season.

And the coaches have tried to be creative with the run game. Five different WRs have carried the ball. They mix in jet sweeps to try to get outside with faster guys. It just hasn’t worked well.

The Steelers will run on early downs, but have little success. That puts Pickett and the passing game into third-and-long situations. Do I need to bother telling you how that goes? Pickett does have quality targets in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and rookie George Pickens. TE Pat Freiermuth is a good player. The more Pickett can build chemistry with these guys, the better the passing game will be.

The Eagles defense should be able to keep this offense under control. I’m guessing Gannon tries to keep both his safeties back most of the time. Pickett has thrown 7 INTs this year. He will put the ball up for grabs at times. The Eagles DBs play the ball well and have good hands. They should have chances for interceptions in this game.

It sounds like new DE Robert Quinn will play. I’m sure he’ll be used in a limited capacity since he’s only been with the team for a couple of days. It will be interesting to see how he’s used and if that changes anything for the other DL in this game.

If there is an X-factor for the Steelers offense, it is Pickett’s legs. Miami used a spy on him at times. Will the Eagles try that? Will they force Pickett to beat them running before making a move?

The Pittsburgh defense is tough to get a handle on. They are 22nd in points allowed, 28th in yards allowed, but Football Outsiders has them at 14th in defensive DVOA. Their numbers are probably skewed by the Bills game (allowed 38 points and 552 yards). At the same time, they’ve given up 348 yards or more in 6 of 7 games so they haven’t come close to shutting anyone down.

Star pass rusher TJ Watt got hurt in the season opener and hasn’t played since. There is some talk that the Steelers may activate him from IR this weekend and have him play against the Eagles. Pittsburgh’s bye is next week so they also could keep him on IR until after that to have him closer to 100 percent for the stretch run.

The Steelers have allowed 111 or more rushing yards in 5 of 7 games. You can bet the Eagles gameplan will start with that. The Eagles OL should have an advantage against their front seven. Cam Heyward is the best player on the DL and he’s 33. Alex Highsmith has been the best LB this year. He leads the team with 6.5 sacks. DT Larry Ogunjobi will be out and that won’t help the run defense.

Jordan Mailata better be ready to deal with Highsmith.

https://twitter.com/chrisburgh/status/1582798753312157697

Highsmith has 6.5 of their 12 sacks. If you keep him under control, Hurts should have time to throw.

Miami had a lot of success throwing the ball over the middle of the field last week. I’m sure the Eagles saw that and would love to replicate it, giving AJ and DeVonta chances to catch the ball and run. It looked like the Steelers played a decent amount of zone coverage. Jalen Hurts has been at his best against zone coverage so the Eagles could come out throwing the ball and trying to build an early lead.

CB Levi Wallace is out this week. Don’t let that fool you. The Steelers were missing several DBs against Tampa and found a way to win that game.

Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is the key DB. He is tough and physical. He has great instincts. He also has great ball skills and great hands. This is the one guy Hurts has to be aware of down the field. You better know where he is. He has 14 INTs in less than 3.5 seasons in Pittsburgh.

LBs Myles Jack and Devin Bush are the leading tacklers for the defense. Neither of them has a sack, INT or FF this year. They’ve combined for 3 TFLs. The Steelers defense is built on LB play. Those guys have to fly around and make things happen for this scheme to succeed. That’s not happening this year.

The Eagles are favored in this game by 11 points. Wow. It seems crazy to hear that when talking about the Steelers, but that’s just not a good team this year. The Eagles should control this game and win it.

Pittsburgh is dangerous because Pickett isn’t afraid to take chances and can make plays with his legs. They have WRs who can make contested catches. They also have a stud pass rusher and a playmaking DB. There just isn’t much around those guys. But if they have some guys step up, they could give the Eagles a tough game.

You do always wonder how a team will perform before and after a bye. The Eagles played a tough game before the bye and beat Dallas 26-17. We have to go back to last year to see how they did after the bye. The Eagles had won 3 of 4 games going into the bye. They fell behind WAS 10-0 in the first quarter but then rallied to win 27-17.

There are plenty of distractions. It is hard not to get caught up in the Phillies hype. The Eagles just made a big trade. I’ve seen players doing interviews with shows. I trust Nick Sirianni will be able to get his guys focused on the task at hand and ready to play the Steelers. They certainly can’t blame any issues on injuries.

As Sirianni likes to say, this is a big game because it’s the next game. Go play well, win and you get to stay undefeated.

Keep the special season going.

*****

In case you need something to get you fired up…

*****

And of course…Go Phillies!

_


3 Comments on “Game Preview – PIT at PHI”

  1. 1 Eagles News: Philadelphia still looking for running back help ahead of the NFL trade deadline – Ultimate Blogging Championship said at 2:12 PM on October 29th, 2022:

    […] Game Preview – PIT at PHI – Iggles BlitzFearless is good. Reckless is bad. Pickett has shown both qualities as a rookie. If the coaches can get rid of the reckless, they might have their QB of the future. If they can’t do that, Pittsburgh will have a lot of roller coaster games. The concern is that he showed some of the same decision-making issues while in college. He was talented enough to overcome them at that level. The NFL is a whole other story. Pickett didn’t come into a great situation. The OL isn’t great. The running game is 27th in the league. There are some good pass-catchers, but there isn’t that one guy to build the passing game around. They don’t have AJ Brown. The Steelers offense is 31st in points, 30th in yards and 24th in DVOA. No matter the metric, they aren’t good. They are 20th in third down percentage. They are 22nd in red zone offense. […]

  2. 2 Eagles Information: Philadelphia nonetheless on the lookout for operating again lend a hand forward of the NFL business closing date - noooracademy said at 2:22 PM on October 29th, 2022:

    […] Recreation Preview – PIT at PHI – Iggles BlitzFearless is nice. Reckless is unhealthy. Pickett has proven each qualities as a rookie. If the coaches can eliminate the reckless, they may have their QB of the longer term. If they may be able to’t do this, Pittsburgh can have numerous curler coaster video games. The worry is that he confirmed one of the crucial identical decision-making problems whilst in school. He used to be proficient sufficient to triumph over them at that stage. The NFL is a complete different tale. Pickett didn’t come into an ideal scenario. The OL isn’t nice. The operating recreation is twenty seventh within the league. There are some nice pass-catchers, however there isn’t that one man to construct the passing recreation round. They don’t have AJ Brown. The Steelers offense is thirty first in issues, thirtieth in yards and twenty fourth in DVOA. Regardless of the metric, they aren’t nice. They’re twentieth in 1/3 down share. They’re twenty second in crimson zone offense. […]

  3. 3 The Linc - Eagles nonetheless on the lookout for RB assist forward of NFL commerce deadline - Philadelphia News Station said at 2:43 PM on October 29th, 2022:

    […] Game Preview – PIT at PHI – Iggles BlitzFearless is nice. Reckless is dangerous. Pickett has proven each qualities as a rookie. If the coaches can do away with the reckless, they could have their QB of the longer term. If they will’t try this, Pittsburgh can have loads of curler coaster video games. The priority is that he confirmed among the similar decision-making points whereas in faculty. He was gifted sufficient to beat them at that degree. The NFL is an entire different story. Pickett didn’t come into an ideal state of affairs. The OL isn’t nice. The working recreation is twenty seventh within the league. There are some good pass-catchers, however there isn’t that one man to construct the passing recreation round. They don’t have AJ Brown. The Steelers offense is thirty first in factors, thirtieth in yards and twenty fourth in DVOA. Regardless of the metric, they aren’t good. They’re twentieth in third down proportion. They’re twenty second in pink zone offense. […]