Know Your Enemy – BUF
Posted: October 6th, 2011 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 59 Comments »Buffalo Bills
3-1
wins over KC, OAK, NE
lost last week to CIN
OFF – 9th in yards, 4th in points
DEF – 27th in yards, 16th in points
Buffalo is one of the feel good stories of the young NFL season. The Bills have been a mess since Y2K. They finally seemed to find the right collection of castoffs and young players. Most of the free agents and early picks they had high hopes for failed to work out for one reason or another. Let’s look at their 5 best players.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – signed as UFA from the Bengals
RB Fred Jackson – UDFA
WR Steve Johnson – 7th round pick
DT Kyle Williams – 5th round pick
CB Terrence McGee – 4th round pick
I’m sure DL Marcel Dareus will be on that list at some point, but for now he’s just off it. He was the #3 pick this year and looks good. The best players are not high picks or high priced FAs. These are good players, but they came to Buffalo with low expectations.
Give credit to Chan Gailey and his staff for finding ways to use these guys. Give credit to the players for making the most of the chances they were given. The Bills have some real solid pieces in place. I’m somewhat reminded of the 2007 Cleveland Browns. They seemed to come out of nowhere and had a year where the offense clicked and everyone played great.
I’m not sure how truly good the Bills are. They whipped the Chiefs in the opener, a game where KC didn’t look ready to play at all. The Bills fell behind the next couple of teams and pulled off major comebacks. They then blew a lead last week and lost to the Bengals. The record is good, but I need to see Buffalo be more consistent before I’ll really buy into them.
I do like Gailey as a coach. He’s just a good, solid football coach. He’s not a personality. Chan won’t sell tickets. He does know how to run an offense and run a team. He’s more creative than most people understand. He brought multiple receiver sets and the Slash (Kordell Stewart) package to the Steelers back in the early to mid 90s.
OFFENSE
The Bills basically run a spread offense. You rarely see them in the I-formation with a TE and 2 WRs. They use a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets. They go empty a lot and have Fred Jackson split out wide.
Fitzpatrick is the key. Smart player. Good decision-maker. Accurate passer. Maybe most importantly, he’s not afraid to throw into coverage. Fitzpatrick doesn’t throw the ball up for grabs, but he understands the value of giving his receivers a chance to make plays. Guys don’t need to be wide open for him to get them the ball. He’s aggressive, not dumb. That said, his style can backfire. Last year Ryan had 5 multi-INT games. He’s only thrown 3 picks this year so it looks like he’s being more careful with the ball.
The most underrated RB in the NFL is Fred Jackson. He’s 6’1, 215. He has good speed. Runs hard. Breaks arm tackles. Will push the pile. Finishes his runs. Gifted receiver. Can catch the ball out in space or down the field. Very good hands. Fred is having a terrific year. He’s 4th in the NFL in rushing and averaging 5.8 ypc. Legitimately good player. Not a fluke at all.
Steve Johnson is the key WR. 24-314-3. 13.1 ypr. Not great in any one way, but a complete WR. Big at 6’2, 210. Runs well for big guy. Agile receiver who can make tough catches. Has very good hands. Backs his talent up with attitude. Doesn’t think of himself as a 7th rounder. Convinced he’s Megatron Jr. I mean this as a compliment. Stevie isn’t worried about how he got in the league. His goal is to be an elite WR. Has a bit of Chad Johnson to him, minus the over the top stuff. Funny interview and seems like a good guy.
David Nelson and Donald Jones are the other WRs. Nelson works the middle of the field more. Jones is a player the coaches are high on. Tough, physical receiver. Scott Chandler is the TE and seems to be an emerging player. He’s already got 4 TDs.
The OL isn’t so great. LT Demetrius Bell is out and rookie Chris Hairston replaces him. He’s big. I’m not sure he’s an ideal LT, but he was a good player at Clemson. RT Erik Pears is light and can get pushed back at times. C Eric Wood is a quality young player. BUF has only given up 3 sacks, but Fitzpatrick gets a lot of credit for that. Last week he got hit a lot. Normally he gets the ball out quickly and DL don’t have a chance to get him.
The Bills have scored 41, 38, 34, and 20 points. There are 2 defensive TDs included, but that offense is clicking right now. They are deadly in the RZ, having scored 13 TDs down there so far this year. The Bills get some big plays, but they know how to drive the ball down and score. One recent issue has been 3rd down success and that’s an area of focus this week.
DEFENSE
The Bills run a base 3-4. The stats aren’t pretty for Buffalo, but if you ignore the opening game vs KC they get downright scary. In the last 3 games the Bills have given up 454, 498, and 458 yards. The opposing QBs Jason Campbell, Tom Brady, and rookie Andy Dalton. The Brady game makes sense, but not the other two.
Marty Mornhinweg said he’s been impressed by the pressure the Bills have gotten on QBs. He said the fact the team only has 4 sacks is very deceiving, that they do a good job of rushing the passer. I felt completely the opposite. They have no pass rusher. Shawne Merriman has no burst anymore. He’s a shell of his former self. The other OLB is Chris Kelsay. He wasn’t a great pass rusher at DE, let along OLB. The most dangerous guys are NT Kyle Williams and DE Marcel Dareus. Williams had 5.5 sacks last year and is a disruptive force. Dareus is a rookie that’s learning on the job. He has some great moments, but also disappears at times. He’s got special potential. Just has to keep adjusting to the NFL.
Nick Barnett and Andra Davis are the ILBs. Barnett is the better player, but isn’t anything special anymore. He does lead the team in tackles and has a couple of TFLs. He didn’t stand out on tape. Last week we faced a speedy front seven. The Bills might be the slowest front seven in the NFL. Teams are piling up yards for a reason.
The secondary is a mixed bag. Jairus Byrd looked like a star on the rise a couple of years ago, but he’s been so-so ever since. He had 9 INTs in his first 14 games. He’s had 1 pick in the last 20. George Wilson is the other starter and is a former WR who has become a solid DB. He’s 2nd on the team in tackles and has a couple of INTs this year. Former PSU star Bryan Scott is a backup DB who returned an INT last week for a TD. Solid role player.
McGee is the best CB. He got hurt on the first play of the year and hasn’t played since. He is expected to be back Sunday. Leodis McKelvin has been up and down in the NFL. He struggled at times last week with rookie AJ Green. Drayton Florence is a veteran CB who can start. He’ll make some plays (pick 6 vs Brady), but will also get burned at times.
The Bills do have 8 INTs this year. 4 of them came against Mr. Gisele Bundchen.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Brian Moorman averages 51.1 yds per punt and remains one of the best in the league.
PK Rian Lindell has missed only one kick all year, but it was in the 30-39 range. Nobody misses those gimmes. What a loser.
Brad Smith is the KOR. He was a major weapon for the NYJ, but only has 2 KORs this year. CJ Spiller is the PR. He has dynamic potential, but that isn’t showing up in games right now.
LAST WEEK
Buffalo struggled early in the game, as they did the previous couple of games. 2 Bengals turnovers before halftime led to a 17-3 cushion for the Bills. Cincy came out in the 3rd Qtr and just went at Buffalo. That lead disappeared. The Bengals went down and kicked a last second FG to win 23-20.
Cincy used blitzes and a strong pass rush to bother Fitzpatrick a lot. The Bills adjusted and threw shorter passes and screens, but the offense never seemed to really get going. The Bills finished with just 273 yards of offense. Cincy controlled the LOS in that game. The Bengals RBs ran 28 times for 153 yards. The long run was 28 yards. Most of this was methodically controlling the LOS.
Is this the week, Tommy? Is is the week where the Birds finally take that step forward and look like a contender?
My prediction, as much as I hate to say it, is no. The fact that it’s an away game isn’t going to help, and I see Fitzpatrick and Jackson having their way with our D.
28 – 24, Bills.
We win 3-0. Castillo then tells us he was just messing around for the first month and now he means business.
Yeah, okay, but how is the defense going to kick a field goal? I’ll go with 4-0.
I love that it’s an away game. When is the last time we played well in the Link?
I’m also glad it’s an away game. Booing isn’t what this bunch needs to get their head right.
Good point.
“Linc”
vs. IND when Dmitri Patterson was the next Deion Sanders.
Eagles surprise the league here and win big. This team is mad and finally all business. Andy knows that his junk plays have to go and this team just needs to let it’s talent win games and not him trickerate everyone. Both teams will look like WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE- Eaglles 42 Bills 14
I’m somewhat of the same mind. The first few weeks of any NFL season can be pretty flukey, and for the most part, things eventually shake out to some sort of modicum of sense. I’m HOPING that will be the case against the Bills this week. But, after the emotional beating we’ve taken the last few weeks, I’m not overly optimistic.
I also became aware of an odd stigma: I’m staying with my sister in Florida right now. Tracing back the roots of every time I’ve stayed here over the years, I realized that the Eagles have never won when I’ve been here.
November ’04 – Eagles go into Pittsburgh undefeated and get trounced.
October ’06 – on the day of my sister’s wedding, Matt Bryant hits a 63-yard field goal as the Bucs shock the Eagles.
October ’06 – The Eagles crap the bed and lose 13-6 to Jacksonville.
December 2010 – losses to Minnesota, Dallas, and then the playoff loss to Green Bay.
September 2011 – losses to Atlanta, NYG and San Fran.
someone buy me a plane ticket the hell outta here.
The playoffs? With that track record, what makes you think you had the right to be down there during the playoffs? (The playoffs? P-P-Playoffs?)
I sure hope you’re right. I’d love a blowout win. Of course, I couldn’t relax until the 2 min warning, but that’d be better than a nail biter.
Last week was well on its way to a blowout win. I think with this defense a lead isn’t safe until Tuesday.
Every game has been a blowout until the 4th quarter
Des Moines, IA? I didn’t think anyone who read this site was from here. Where do you watch the games at?
I watch Eagles games at a buddys house. We split Sunday ticket. As for the Phillies and Flyers, it’s a struggle to find a bar that will show them on a big screen. What about you?
Flyers are the exact same way.
I finally watched Juan’s presser from today, and a minute in I wanted to shoot myself. Although, he might make a good used car sales man selling Dahsh Sharshers. (Dodge Chargers)
I think the Birds put together a solid showing on offense. I think that Watkins will have his issues, but I still think they put together enough points to win. I still have many, many, many doubts about the defense from the coaching on down. I think this is a high scoring affair, with the Bills coming out on top. 38-34 Bills.
(By going on record, I really hope the Birds make a fool of me and absolutely stomp the crap out of the Bills)
I’m feeling recklessly pessimistic about this game. The Eagles picked a horrible week if they want to turn their season round.
I never want to overlook an opponenet. I mean, hell, we are 1-3 because our players bought into the hype. However, that all being said, this team has gone from too confident to beaten down. They need a win against a quality opponent desperately, but they need to look good doing it. I am not sure Buffalo is quality, but they are the cindarella team thus far and the media has them hyped. If we can beat this team soundly, it may go a long way to repair confidence/chemistry and fan relations. However, if this team comes out and looks as horrible as they have recently, there may be riots. And that is not even taking into account of the state of this city if the Phils choke tommorow….there may be people jumping off the Walt Whitman by Sunday night if both our teams lose.
That being said, the Phils will win and the Eagles get back on track in a big way. I bet a Jim’s cheesesteak on it, with a side of Xanax.
I’ve pulled out all the stops this week and picked against the Eagles in my pickem league. Usually that leads to an Eagle win.
Fred Jackson will be the first RB to rush for 300 yards in a single game.
This will be a record-setting day. Juan Castillo will become a part of history.
Zing! Morton with the reverse mojo. Why not go for 400 yards.
On a lighter note, is there something that can be done about Brian Baldinger’s pinkie finger? I mean seriously, that thing is scary and children should not be able to watch. I sometimes feel like my TV/computer screen is distorted because that thing is so far out there.
I always thought he left it that way specifically to scare the children.
I watched him for years, never noticing. One day I saw it and now I can’t look away. And that’s a bad thing. Shaking his hand might give me nightmares.
The Eagles will blowout the Bills. The Eagles will win by 30 points or more. And if they don’t, Tommy will ride with Eskin to San Fran on a tandem bike. Better yet…let’s make it a surrey bike.
I feel sorry for those bike tires.
I feel sorry for the guy that will have to keep filling the cooler in the basket with PBR.
So true.
I was also thinking we could build a cage around the cart once tensions started to escalate and do a pay per view reality cage fight rolling down the road in a surrey cart type thing. Check with your agent. If you don’t have one, I can fill the void and say…”I’d like to apologize ahead of time to the Bill’s, but you are gonna get smoked, however, in the best interest of all parties, including the fans, the ride will happen regardless of the outcome”.
Works for me.
Speaking of PBR… tomorrow is payday and I was flat-ass broke, so I returned an unopened bag of my sister’s dog’s food so I could get two 4-packs of PBR tallboys. Does that make me a bad person?
The answer is yes.
Just checked my charts and it says here that you are “wise, focused, and a problem solver”. Kudos.
Relatively speaking selling the dog food wasn’t so bad, at least you didn’t sell the dog.
Or the sister.
Tommy — as a longtime reader and first time poster, first of all let me say you do good work. It’s not easy to be the voice of reason/optimism and I like that you counteract the, as it’s so often politely put, passionate nature of other Eagles outlets.
That said, I wanted to talk about what I see as the biggest problem of this team: piss-poor GL offense. I hope you do a piece on this soon. We’ve moved the ball well enough up and down the field this year to win. The D has had its well-documented issues, but has played well-enough to win in my opinion and has been let down by huge cold stretches from the O (stinking for entire halves!).
So, on to the GL discussion.
Personnel: at the GL I think we should use Cooper-Maclin-Brown-Harbor at the skill positions, I love DJax but in several years I can’t recall a single TD he’s scored from inside the 5. I agree 100% with you about Cooper and I’m open to sprinkling in VY. I also think we should insert JamJax in at C. Again, I like Kelce, but the kid survives vs. power by getting knocked back and resetting. That can’t happen at the GL.
Playcalling: my main quarrel at the GL is with our predictable playcalling. First of all, we seem to run on 1st/2nd down and then pass after that fails on 3rd down quite often. We also seem to run out of obvious running/heavy packages and pass out of obvious passing/spread packages. How can Andy/Marty be so creative outside the RZ and so predictable at the GL? I’ve seen better GL play calling in flag football leagues. And by creativity, I don’t mean trick plays! We should line in a heavy package on 1st and 2nd down, and throw to the FB’s, TE’s, and even OT’s (Todd and J. Peters can catch if memory serves). Then once defenses at the GL start to respect the pass, it will set up the run. Pass to set up the run. I also agree with using Riley and Clay more. Give them the chance to “play big” and make some plays. So to sum up, more size/power in personnel, more unpredictable playcalling by down and package. By god I think if every Eagles fan knows when we’re going to run “the Maclin throwback play”, the opposing defenses do (amazed that it worked again vs. ATL though). Anyways, that’s it, looking forward to a full post on GL offense soon. Keep up the good work!
couldn’t agree more. I’m shocked the shuffle pass still works down there. When you see the birds audible to a split back set you know it’s coming. Why not do something different from that package. Why not try play-action out of your jumbo set and slip a lob into a back-up TE. If teams are giving a little cushion inside the 10 when they shouldn’t, throw the quick slant. Try a fade. Try to get shady on the outside with a handoff or a sweep. They seem to have success with those plays even on short yardage. Just stop with the run up the gut, screens, reverses and trick plays. It’s amazing how some teams look so good in the red-zone and others so incompetent. If they change it up and it still doesn’t work then I’ll throw my hands up in defeat, but at least show that you’ve made the effort to try different things
As far as I understand it, the play works because when the Eagles audible in to it, it is because the other team has too few men in the box, and that is what makes it successful, assuming it is blocked decently. Given that it is the goal line d, it isn’t like there is a safety you can crash down when the Eagles audible, you’d have to bring in someone from the outside — that takes too long and could leave an edge player open.
May be, but on that play from the 5yd line, the Niners had 3 dbs in man, and 8 guys within 5 yds of the l.o.s. It looked like they had 3 cbs and 2 safeties in with 2 ILBs. We had 3 WRs and 2 RBs and only 5 blockers. I guess they like their chances against a smaller unit. Still, I’m surprised defensive coordinators haven’t figured out a way to stop it. 90% of the time they go split back down there that’s what they are doing.
Thinking back on it, do they normally go with 3 WRs when the run that play? I feel like it’s almost always with at least 1 TE. If not, then that is a good use of an audible into a package they don’t normally use as something different.
http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadelphia-eagles/news/Under-Review-Eagles-defense-is-soft?blockID=573016&feedID=692
Just in case people haven’t seen this.
Here’s a question – isn’t this supposed to be Juan’s _thing_? He got the job on his ability to get players motivated. He was the great motivator. He wasn’t the defensive genius or the schemer, he was the guy who’d get us back to basics, and play solid, fundamental football.
We see evidence on just about every other play that he hasn’t nailed the back-to-basics fundamentals in the players.
He certainly isn’t outscheming anyone.
And that article makes it somewhat clear that his ability to motivate may not extend beyond Brian Rolle and maybe Jason Babin.
Are players unmotivated or not trusting what they’re seeing? I don’t see guys with no-motor, I see guys not sure what they’re doing…
I really don’t think so…Asante never even bothered to make an attempt to tackle the play that went for a TD……I just don’t see the intensity of the D (compare to the D of years past)…..after Cole went down – you could see the D just gave up…..I see Washburn sitting with his DL and explaining things while the rest of the D just roams around…..as a fan I was used to seeing Dawk or Trot or Q screaming at the D…just don’t see that anymore
In a similiar vein,
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7070630/frank-gore-says-philadelphia-eagles-threw-towel-san-francisco-49ers-rallied
If the other team calling them pussies doesn’t get this Eagles team motivated, I don’t know what will.
That’s because the front office deemed Dawk and then Q expendable (and obviously never valued LB). We don’t have anyone to lead the defensive back 7, period.
Just think if the FO had kept Gocong, Bradley and Gaither we might be 3 – 1 right now,
Bradley is not a starter for the Cards
Gocong looked slow (to me) as an Eagle
Not sure what Gaither is up to. He used to be a quality backup.
Not to sound a beaten, broken and shattered drum, but if the front office hadn’t let Dawk and Q walk, I guarantee we would not have the secondary tackling half-assed. It’s debatable whether the coverage would be better, or could be any worse than what we’ve seen.
They didn’t neglect that position. They spent two 2nd rounders on that position.
One of whom can’t tackle and the other who can’t get on the field. I’m not saying they ignored the position, I’m saying they let two players walk who could have fixed a lot of what’s wrong with this defense, without anybody ready to pick up the slack. Allen and Jarrett may turn out to be great players in 2-3 years, but their unreadiness this season (and the other safeties’ lack of ability) is crippling this defense.
What you’re saying is the Front Office cannot evaluate players.
Sad as it was to see Dawk go, I can still conjure up images of him not being able to cover anyone in his last 2 years here. He was a special player, and I think may eventually be a pretty sweet coach if he goes that route, but I think there are a couple highlights of him not making plays out in Denver… He WAS one of the best to play the position.
As far as Q goes… we just weren’t going to pony up that much cash when Coleman was (read: was) showing potential last season. Unfortunately Coleman came back this year after spending his off-season honing his curling game and evidently forgot how to tackle.
In 2007 we don’t have a PR and the following year we get DeSean Jackson
In 2008 we don’t have a FB and the following year we get Leonard Weaver
In 2009 we don’t have a FS and the following year we get Nate Allen
In 2010 we don’t have a RCB and the following year we get Nnamdi Asomugha and DRC
It’s 2011 and we don’t have a MIKE (or a SAM, possible a WILL either)- Does this mean that we will get either Jon Beason or Vontaze Burfict?
Vontaze Burfict, Luke Kuechly, and Manti T’eo will all be sitting there at the Eagles first round pick but Howie “Boy Genius Bean Counter” Roseman will outsmart them all by trading down for a handful of 7th round picks and instead select a 32-year-old 5’10” 210 lb MLB from Harrisburg Area Community College in the 2nd round.
And then, in the offseason, they’ll cut him and sign Jeremiah Trotter again.
Gotta hand it to you Mort. I laughed out loud at that post. That was a good one.
Here, here.
If the Eagles can win in Buffalo, I think it’ll reflect that Juan’s figured things out — because Chan Gailey is no Jim Harbaugh. So Juan’ll be tested.
But if Buffalo rolls over the Eagles in another 2nd-half collapse, why not go for Andrew Luck.
If we’re not going to win the SB, I’d just as soon have the Eagles finish 1-15 and go for Luck on the outside chance the Colts and Chiefs win a couple games.
Put Luck on the bench for a couple years, a la Rogers, and in 2-3 years, when Vick’s body is completely spent, get Luck in there.
It would be Reid’s crowning achievement.
Brian Billick former NFL head coach and the offensive genius who resurrected the great Randall Cunningham’s career is sayin what I’ve been sayin about our “D”.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d822e0f8b/article/playing-like-dogs-philadelphia-needs-to-adopt-the-cat?module=HP11_content_stream
Obviously he’s been reading your blog Tommy.
This also obviously brings up a great topic. Who was the greatest Catwoman?
Julie Newmar is unquestionably the greatest Catwoman of them all.
I go with Lee Meriweather for 2nd in an upset. Halle Berry is goregous, but I’m a sucker for the old costumes.
Michelle Pfeiffer is goregous, but wasn’t great in the role.