Final Prediction on the Final 53
Posted: September 3rd, 2011 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 66 Comments »I was hoping to post this Friday evening, but my internet was out all night long. Very frustrating. I had to pray the Eagles weren’t making any moves. They didn’t so here we go…
QB: (3) Vick, Young, Kafka
RB: (4) McCoy, Brown, Lewis, Schmitt
TE: (2) Celek, Harbor
WR: (6) Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Smith, Cooper, Moss
OT: (4) Peters, Herremans, Dunlap, Wells
OG: (3) Mathis, Watkins, Vandervelde
OC: (2) Kelce, Jackson
DE: (5) Cole, Babin, Parker, Tapp, Hunt
DT; (5) Jenkins, Patterson, Dixon, Hargrove, Landri
LB: (5) Chaney, Fokou, Matthews, Rolle, Clayton
S: (5) Coleman, Page, Allen, Jarrett, Anderson
CB: (6) Asomugha, Samuel, DRC, Hughes, Marsh, Lindley
ST: (3) Henery, Henry, Dorenbos
PUP: Winston Justice, Brandon Graham
Inactive for most games would be:
WR Moss
OL Vandervelde
OL Wells
DT Landri
SS Jarrett
CB Marsh
CB Lindley
Practice Squad would be:
WR Chad Hall
WR Rod Harper
OT Austin Howard
FB to be named later
OL to be named later
DT Cedric Thornton
DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim
LB Greg Lloyd
I would try like heck to trade:
Trevor Laws
Joselio Hanson
Mike McGlynn
Now for my logic behind some of the moves.
* I’m keeping Sinorice Moss because he was the best 6thWR/RS we had. Steve Smith and Jeremy Maclin are coming off injuries/illness and I want a good insurance plan in place should either of those guys have a problem. We know Smith will miss the opener, maybe the 2nd game. Moss will be active for those. That keeps DeSean Jackson from having to return punts. Other weeks Moss will be inactive and DeSean will be the PR.
* I considered keeping Donald Lee, but he would have been purely an insurance policy. Still, a tough cut. He played well this summer.
* I cut Austin Howard because I don’t feel I can count on him this year. He’s out of shape and adjusting to the new system. I want him on the Practice Squad, but I’m willing to expose him to waivers. I don’t think he put out such good tape this year that he’ll necessarily be taken by another team.
* I kept Reggie Wells because he’s a veteran and he can play G or RT. I think Wells gets cut when Justice comes off PUP at midseason.
* I want Jamaal Jackson as my top backup interior OL. He’ll be active on gamedays. I just want to make sure he’s okay with staying here as the backup.
* Daniel Te’o-Nesheim gets cut not because he did anything wrong, but because other guys just passed him. I do hope to get him on the PS, but there’s a chance someone claims him.
* I hate to let Trevor Laws go, but making the case for keeping him is tough. He didn’t play much at Lehigh. He didn’t stand out in the preseason finale. The new scheme requires players to penetrate and be disruptive. Laws is a guy I feel I can trade and get a pick back for. I think we might be able to get as much as a 5th for him from a team desperate for a DT (Panthers?). Anthony Hargrove was regularly disruptive this summer. He plays with great energy. He’s also versatile enough to play LDE or DT.
* I will be incredibly disappointed if the Eagles cut Derek Landri. I think he absolutely earned a spot this summer. He would have been a preseason Pro Bowl DT if such a thing existed. I’m listing him as generally inactive, but I expect minor injuries to DTs that will put him on the field regularly. Here’s the thing. Landri is an effort guy. Rest him when you can so that when he does play, he’s got all his energy and can be at maximum effectiveness.
* Going with 5 LBs is a risk. I’m not comfortable with it, but the Safety position made me do it. Plus, we’re going to play in the Nickel a lot of the time. That means only 2 LBs will be on the field most of the time anyway.
* I did keep Colt Anderson and 4 other Safeties. I couldn’t cut anyone here. I love the 3 young guys. Page is starting right now. Colt is our best STs player.
* CB was easy, once I decided to move Hanson.
* * * * *
Not much has interested me in the cuts so far. I am intrigued by the Titans letting go of LB Rennie Curran. Coach Munchak talked about wanting to get bigger on defense. He’s only about 5’10, 230. Curran could be an interesting ML B/WLB addition. I didn’t watch him this summer so I can’t comment on his play.
* * * * *
Today will be busy. I’ll be watching college football all day. I’ll be posting some stuff on ScoutsNotebook. I’ll be on Twitter. I’ll be here as Eagles news breaks.
Looking at this roster makes me think we will look for a G to pick up.
When we drafted him most people thought Havili was almost guaranteed to make the PS, then he shows nothing, what a shame.
Speaking of PS, hasn’t Graig Cooper showed enough to be considered for that?
Cooper is possible.
You have to remember the P Squad has a key word…practice. We need someone in there to be the FB for the scout team. Last year Eldra Buckley could do that. I don’t see any RB doing that this year. Plus, Schmitt isn’t great and Havili wasn’t impressive.
Stanley could still get added to the PS. I’m just not a big fan. I want a blocker.
Thanks for posting this Tommy. I actually got the same roster that you did, except I cut Lindley in favor of having Jordan.
Great article as usual Tommy – of course it won’t likely play out exactly like you say but I think you are very close…the only thing I see as being off the mark is keeping the 5 safeties and only 5 LBs…they will go 4/6 there, and I think it will be an LB from somewhere else…but no matter what, I am betting on 6 LBs with all this uncertainty around the position.
The S that would go is obviously Anderson – good kid, but just not enough room on this loaded roster for him…
It bugs me that weak players like Wells or Lindley could make the team while stronger players at positions we’re strong at could get cut: Laws, Landri, etc. One of the reasons I think Lindley could get cut is because cornerback is arguably our strongest position. Do you always need to have that much insurance in case of injury, i.e., 6 CB’s?
PS – I kinda wanna keep Hanson even though I think you are correct that he will be moved…can’t we bring in the new dawn of NFL teams needing to carry 4 strong CBs in order to deal with their ever-increasingly pass happy league – and it’s WR stocked gunslinging heroes like VICK, Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, and hell, even Romo and Eli?
I think Laws makes it over Parker. Hargrove started against the Jets at the DE spot for a reason. Parker gets moved and Hargrove is one of the five DEs. Laws is one of the five DTs.
I dont think Colt Anderson sticks.
I wonder if they’ll keep Laws/Hanson/McGlynn past the actual cut down to give extra time to facilitate a trade, a la what they did when they kept 7 WRs.
Like all of your choices, except keeping Moss. If he’s inactive, what’s the point? Its not like his phone was ringing off the hook (wow, is THAT becoming an outdated phrase) before signing here. I’d rather have a 6th LB (Jordan, or somebody from another team) active, and keep Nate inactive until that knee really is fine.
What are your thoughts on Parker? Reminds me of the Greg Lewis situation a few years ago. Think they’re shopping him?
Thank goodness it was just your internet. I was beginning to think you were trapped under a collapsed wall of tapes.
Differences I have from your prediction –
a. I had Justice being activated off PUP before the opener. If that doesn’t happen I could see Wells making it.
b. I do not see Parker making the cut at his scheduled $3.5M salary. At a minimum, he would be released before the opener so his full salary isn’t guaranteed for the year.
c. Keeping only 5 LBs would be non-traditional. It’s possible they only go with 5 on the initial 53-man roster and then claim someone on waivers. As I tweeted to you, I’m also interested in Curran. Tyrone McKenzie may be a possibility too.
d. Most Eagles fans disagree and you probably will too, but I see the Eagles not keeping Schmitt or any FB and keeping Lee as a 3rd TE. I just think Lee is a better player and you need the security there if you have injuries at TE. You also know if you cut Lee there’s a good chance he ends up with the Giants. Harbor can play an H-B role and you could have Kelce lead block at times if you wanted with Jackson inserted at center. It’s like the argument you made with keeping only 5 LBs. The Eagles run 2 RB sets with a FB only around a quarter of the time. I see the Eagles running more 2 RB sets with Brown and McCoy in at the same time like they did with Westbrook and Buckhalter. Nowadays a FB is more of a STs player than anything and if you want to keep a coverage specialist like Anderson you have to sacrifice elsewhere.
e. I didn’t have this on my 53-man roster prediction but someone on Bleeding Green Nation mentioned the solid point that the Eagles could keep 7 CBs including Hanson initially and then try to trade Hanson the next day. Most teams will want to see if they can get a target via waivers before they trade for a guy who makes $1.8M.
@eagles nut
Once a player has been PUPed he cannot be activated before the 7th gameday.
First, over the last couple of days I wondered what people had against Sunshine each time I saw Cooper listed on practice squads. Luckily, I put it together before I commented.
I thought it was an interesting angle to consider that Jordan and Anderson are competing for a spot. Both mostly special teams aces and depth where they hopefully won’t be needed. I think I’d lean the other way, though. If things go terribly wrong, I think we could fill in at safety with a corner easier than we could fill in at LB.
I agree with the comment that it is frustrating to see Wells take a spot from a better player, but that is the challenge of putting together a good team, not a good set of players, I guess.
I loved Hanson in the slot, I hated that he could only play the slot and what that meant to the depth chart behind him.
After all the high hopes for Laws and Te’o, it is tough seeing them at the bottom of your list. I know that happens every year to every team, but if only…
I am still not sold on Parker. Does what he offers in depth at a deep position make him worth his cost in terms of future potential lost?
Finally, formatting wise, it would be great to see the guys getting cut, maybe in red or with a strikethrough, listed with the 53.
Personally I would probably keep Jordan over Anderson. I know he’s nothing special but he’s made plenty of starts in his career and has some versatility. He has more career starts than the entire projected LB group combined. This will be a test of April’s influence, if Colt gets axed it’ll probably mean Reid went to him and said “listen you gym-teacher looking goon, just coach up who we have”
I’d like to have Jackson as well but I think he’s likely gone in a cut/trade, meaning McGlynn takes his spot as utility guy
re: eagles nut
You have to keep a fullback. Even if he’s only used on a quarter of the plays, well, 25% of the offensive plays is still a lot, isn’t it? It’s a hell of a lot more than the #3 TE plays. I don’t think you could get by with Harbor and Kelce (isn’t Kelce our starting center? How’s that going to work?) filling in at a different position.
Same for playing McCoy and Brown at the same time. Were Westbrook and Buckhalter on the field together THAT much? And is the oft-injured Brown someone you want taking a beating as a lead blocker?
Like the idea for its creativity, but it just doesn’t work in real life.
I think this is exactly how the roster will shake out, good job Tommy… Except I’m throwing out a wild card here. We cut or trade JP and keep Laws.
Tommy,
What do you think of Jaqua Parker barely playing the entire pre-season? Seems like the Eagles know what they have with him and didn’t need to see him get reps. Also, they know he tends to wear down over the season and want to save him up for the games that count.
To me, this makes it seem like he’s a lock for the roster. If they were thinking of dropping him, wouldn’t they have given him more reps to showcase him to other teams?
^^agreed
Gotta have a FB unless you have a sledgehammer TE who can fill that role from time to time. We don’t. Harbor has potential to be good blocker, but he’s still learning.
RE: J Parker
I go back and forth on him. In the end I think he sticks because we value DE so highly.
I’d certainly be open to cutting him and keeping another DE since Hargrove can help at LDE.
Les Bowen reported that Eagles are getting calls about JamJax, but not talking. Sounds like they want to keep him. Jamaal’s agent says he Jamaal really wants to play. Tough situation.
Adam Caplan just tweeted that Chad Hall has been cut.
I’d be more confident in predicting cutting Schmitt if we had practice more using the TE in an H-B like role. That said, not keeping a true FB isn’t exactly some revolutionary idea. Multiple teams do it.
Other thing to consider about cutting Schmitt is that he’s been our wedge buster on KOs.
Keeping 3 TEs would actually be more of a priority to me than keeping a FB. I’d rather run more 2 TE sets giving more protection against blitzes coming from the edge than a FB. It would be different if Schmitt excelled particularly in pass-protection. Schmitt also isn’t the best lead blocker in the world. He’s entirely serviceable and was a good pickup last year after Weaver got hurt but he’s not a necessity on the roster. I’d suggest finding a quality FB to place on the PS and then keeping Lee week 1. That way his salary is guaranteed for the year. Then you could do the roster roulette with him from week to week like we did with Darnerian McCants one year and have a FB on the roster some weeks and 3 TEs some weeks, dependent on the game plan. That or cut Lee and pick up a FB/TE tweener like Dan Gronkowski or if he’s cut by Minnesota Jeff Dugan.
Sinorice Moss was cut too according to RavensInsider. So unless we’re bringing in some outside return guy it sounds like Jackson will still return punts. So we might have room for 3 TEs and 1 FB.
Maybe DeSean is going to be the PR.
I wish Dion Lewis got some work there.
Miffed about Sinorice. Eagles fans have suffered enough not to have a dependable return man. I suspect another Greg Lewis situation. Sinorice could have been a good extra receiver. In the unlikely event they’re keeping Harper, I’m ok with it… or picking up a returner.
Dion Lewis has a fumble history as a RB in college, no experience returning punts. I don’t see the need to roll the dice there unless he’s gotten preseason reps.
Ian…
With DeSean and Maclin on the team, there can’t be another Greg Lewis situation.
The Eagles do have a dependable return man, at least for punt returns. The only question is if they want Jackson to do it full-time or not.
Harper’s already been cut. I’m not against DJax returning punts as a fan, but he’s their tiny #1 WR with a 2nd round contract.
From the team-fan standpoint, there are punts where you don’t need to expose your starting star WRs to injury but you don’t want a fumble. Just a guy who can do the job. Maybe they’re going with Higgins.
I like Max Jean-Gilles better than Reggie Wells.
ian…
I think we all agree we’d like to pick and choose where to use DeSean. We want another guy to mix in.
Still, that’s light years different from 2007.
.. and Watkins at this point. Watkins is overwhelmed and nervous, which is why you don’t throw a rookie into this situation. They start with the Rams who may beat them, then the Falcons and the Giants.
The other thing is that JamJax hasn’t gotten reps at guard.. he could be a good option there.
Max is a terrible fit for Mudd’s system. He’d be just as lost as Watkins.
The Eagles want Danny to play so that he can grow and be at a higher level as the season moves along.
Tommy,
Did the Eagles show any interest in Mardy Gilyard last year? Opportunity for a quality down the field receiver and returner.
Tommy, thanks again for all your great stuff that you give us to read everyday. I love getting your perspective on the game. You’ve been on the money on guys like Rolle and last year, Coleman.
Your list looks pretty good. I have them cutting Parker for cap, plus the FO is famous for cutting guys before they show their age on the field. I have them keeping Hargrove, Landri and Laws, but you might be right about Laws.
Also I think they add a vet LB from the scrap heap and carry 6.
I agree with Eagles nut’s thought that Donald Lee will end up on the Giants. You know the Giants are waiting to see what CB we cast off too. Hopefully the iggles find a trade partner for Hanson outside the division and not just cut him.
Actually quite a lot of veteran TEs are getting cut so the Giants have options. If we don’t keep Lee, I’d like to see the Eagles replace Schmitt with a FB/TE combo guy like Jeff Dugan. Just seems so much more efficient.
@ Eric…
Don’t recall any special interest in Mardy Gilyard.
He was cut by Rams, run by a former Eagles guy. If Spags gives him a good report, maybe Mardy gets a look. If Spags isn’t so keen on him, AR will have no interest.
I just don’t think about rosters in terms of 53. Its more like..47, and six practice squad players that cannot be claimed.
The only way it made sense to me to keep Moss was if Steve Smith starts the season inactive.
Again, if Donald Lee isn’t going to be active, then it doesn’t make sense to keep him around. At least, not to me.
Wow. How far has Tommie Harris fallen? The guy was one of the top 10 DTs in the league a couple of years ago. Now, he’s on the street…again.
Vet DTs should NOT sign in Indy hoping to find their careers (Simon, McFarland, Harris, etc.)
Yeah, I’m shocked about Tommie. He had a good summer. Wonder if he’s a bit of a headcase or something. Probably will get picked up after Gm 1 by somebody.
And good point on the Colts / vet DTs.
“Other thing to consider about cutting Schmitt is that he’s been our wedge buster on KOs.”
Tommy, you fool, wedges have been banned 2 years ago ! You must be talking about the “3 to 4 guys running side by side 10 yards in front of the kickoff returner” aren’t you ?
On another note, Adam Caplan said Eagles have been rumoured to be looking around the league for KR/PRs recently.
Wow and Brandon Ghee cut by the Bengals, who just lost J.Joseph – Remember how everyone wanted him in the 3rd round ?
Brandon Ghee was a guy we all wanted. That CB class wasn’t good. Once Kyle Wilson was gone, Eagles were wise to wait for the middle rounds.
I shouldn’t have said wedge. You’re correct. Schmitt happens to run down fast at loose gathering of opposing players who happen to be discussing their favorite Shakira videos…while running near each other on KOs.
I hate seeing Dorenbos’ name there taking up a roster spot when we are cutting some guys we’d really like to keep. If Kelce actually is the center of the future, how about teaching him to long snap so we don’t have to waste a roster spot on a specialist every year?
Anthony Hargrove just got cut. Good news for Landri and Laws.
Probably also good news for either Te’o or Parker.
I’m tellin ya… Laws and Teo stay.. next big cut, JP
Caplan is saying Eagles will release Landri too. Crazy.
Caplan is suggesting that one of Hargrove or Landri could be back after Week 1. If they’re on the Week 1 roster, their salary is guaranteed. Maybe you keep a guy like Te’o for Week 1 and then afterwards sign Landri or Hargrove and try to pass Te’o to the PS.
Multiple people are reporting that Derek Landri was also cut. Something must be going on roster wise. Maybe they are going to keep 7 CBs so they can continue to shop Hanson.
Landri played well enough to earn spot.
Maybe they like Thornton’s upside and don’t want to risk losing him.
Justice takes pay-cut.
Tommy how much sense does this tweet from McLane make?
http://twitter.com/Jeff_McLane/statuses/110071895390556160
Doesn’t wide nine favor smaller guys more than most other schemes?
Eagles pulled the same thing with Runyan.
Merriweather supposedly didn’t communicate well with S Patrick Chung. Hard to tell if Eagles would take a flier.
“Marlon Favorite, coach wants to see you with the Eagles playbook you reconstructed in the interrogation room.”
Based on cap hit, it seemed unlikely Justice would have been cut if he held his ground.. but he makes to much so it’s a good development. Parker may be in the same negotiations.
RE: Justice
Glad he’s willing to take the cut. Shows he understands the situation. I know many don’t like him, but Justice is veteran OT with some talent. Those guys have value.
RE: Thornton
Said something similar on Twitter. Could be that Eagles fear losing him. Keep the young guy.
RE: McLane
Weird. Wide-9 lets guys of all shapes and sizes play. Key is to get quick, attacking players. Landri and Hargrove were both that.
Tony Brown (6’1, 295) played great in W9 for Jim Wash.
With Justice, you have to wonder if this means he’ll be removed from PUP/Active and be on the 53-man roster. If he was still too injured, could they threaten to release him if he doesn’t get a pay cut? Perhaps because teams cut players due to failed physicals all the time during the offseason. Maybe they’re only obligated to due injury settlements if the player gets hurt in training camp but not if the injury occured the prior year.
Good question in regard to Justice / PUP. I still think he’s gonna stay on PUP, but the new deal does make me question that a bit.
Jeff McLane reports that Mike McGlynn has been cut. No surprise at all. Solid player, wrong system.
Geoff Mosher reports on Twitter that Austin Howard has been cut. Still PS material.
Bye bye Austin Howard
Brandon Tate is going on waiver wire, correct?
Well, Donald Lee was cut. I was wrong there, as I’ve been wrong on several spots. He’s another guy whose salary would be guaranteed if he’s on the Week 1 roster, so he could potentially come back.
Kinda funny to see the wailing and gnashing of teeth going on on the EMB over Lee getting cut. Seriously, you’d think the guy is the second coming of Antonio Gates, not a backup TE the Packers thought so little of that they wouldn’t even bother to retain him as insurance against Jermichael Finley’s next injury.
sounds like Hanson cut. see you on the Giants, mmmbop