The First 14

Posted: April 23rd, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 71 Comments »

Let’s think out loud.

Will go before pick 15:

Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Matt Kalil
Trent Richardson
Morris Claiborne

Highly likely to be gone by 15:

Justin Blackmon
Ryan Tannehill
Stephon Gilmore

That is 8 players.  They may not be the first 8 taken, but I don’t see them getting to pick 15.

Choosing the next 6 players is next to impossible so we’ll simply put up a list of candidates.

Melvin Ingram
Michael Floyd
Fletcher Cox
Mark Barron
David DeCastro
Luke Kuechly
Quinton Coples
Michael Brockers
Dre Kirkpatrick
Dontari Poe
Cordy Glenn
Riley Reiff
Courtney Upshaw

Fletcher Cox is a tremendous longshot to fall to 15.  I still think Kuechly has a good shot.  Apparently the KC Star keeps picking the Chiefs to nab him when they do mock drafts.  I have no idea how tuned in those writers are to the Chiefs and their way of doing business.

It looks like the real key for us is O-linemen.  We need DeCastro, Glenn, and/or Reiff to go ahead of us to have the best shot at either Cox or Kuechly falling to 15.  It would also help if Coples went ahead of us, but that seems less and less likely.

What are some potential surprises that could help us?

If the Chiefs threw the world a curveball and took Donta Hightower at 11, that would be fantastic.  We know the Chiefs love SEC defenders.  It is possible they would want a 265-pound thumper in the middle of their defense instead of a 242-pound tackler.

The Seahawks at 12 are a huge mystery team.  They’ve been linked with half of the draft class.  There are some really Seahawk fans that think the team would take Courtney Upshaw.  I don’t really see it, but would absolutely love that pick.  Seattle could help us out if they took someone like Whitney Mercilus or Nick Perry.  Both are unlikely scenarios, but Pete Carroll is unconventional.

The Cardinals are a tough team to predict.  I don’t see any wild matches for them.  Our biggest hope is that they go OL.

We need Dallas to go OL or to take Barron or Brockers.  If Cox reaches them, I think they would take him, but that’s just a wild guess.  Part of me thinks Rob Ryan would prefer a bigger guy like Brockers, but Cox is just the better player.  If Dallas is desperate for a pass rusher, maybe they go for Mercilus.  The real reach here would be C Peter Konz.  I’m sure the Cowboys would love to upgrade C, but Konz is more of a 25 to 30 pick, not #14.  The x-factor here could be if they think DeCastro can play C.  Maybe that pushes them to take him.

The doomsday scenario is that both Kuechly and Cox are gone at 15.  You guys love to ask me who to then focus on.  I don’t like the players left on the board.  I would trade back, 5 or 10 spots.  Heck we could move all the way back to the 30’s.  There has been speculation that the Patriots would like to move up quite a bit.  Their defense was a mess last year.  I’d be okay with dropping back to 31 and regrouping.  I love the 2nd round for us.

My goal is still to come away with Cox or Kuechly, but it isn’t a matter of us getting them or the draft is a waste of time.  There are good backup options at plenty of spots.

There is always the possibility of us moving up, if we truly covet Fletcher Cox.  The key is that he has to make it to a spot where we’re willing to pay that price.  Maybe JAX at 7.  Maybe BUF at 10.

* * * * *

I posted some draft thoughts at ScoutsNotebook.

Matt Alkire also has up a post with some draft nuggets.

* * * * *

Jimmy Bama has a good post up on DT Cedric Thornton.  I’m really curious to see what this guy can do in 2012.  He has very good potential.  He’s big and can explode off the ball.  Unfortunately, we’ve seen some small school guys struggle here before.  Tank Daniels had tons of athletic ability and would really flash, but he could not play at a consistently high level.  Akeem Jordan has been very up and down in his career.

It isn’t that the small school guys lack talent or potential.  I think some of them don’t understand how hard it is to play at a high level on every snap, every game, every year.  It almost seems like they make it in the league and then lose the edge that helped get them here.  Guys from some big schools struggle with this as well.  The difference is that many of them are used to fighting to keep their job in college and then facing top shelf competition each Saturday.  They have some background as to how you need to be consistent.

Someone coming from a small school isn’t fighting for his job.  He’s clearly the best player on his team.  He will get up for big games, but then maybe let’s up when facing mediocre competition.  You can get away with that at Southern Arkansas or wherever, but not the NFL.  This is a league where nothing is guaranteed.  I’d have Jon Runyan talk to these guys.  He got it.  Runyan said it was his job to stay on the field for every snap possible and to play his best football.  He didn’t want to give the guys behind him a chance to show what they could do and he didn’t want to give the coaches any excuses to bench him or replace him.  That’s the mentality every NFL player should have.  Sadly, many don’t even come close to that.

* * * * *

Les Bowen weighs in on the QB question and says we should wait for the QB of the future.  Smart man.

Another really good piece from Les is his column on the 2003 draft and UDFA class.  Some good nuggets in there that I wasn’t aware of.   Make sure you check it out.

71 Comments on “The First 14”

  1. 1 TommyLawlor said at 10:00 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    No sooner am I done positing this and Dawk announces his retirement.

    I’ll cover that later.

  2. 2 R G said at 10:21 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I was on a plane with Dawk and Troy Vincent to Hawaii right after he signed up the Broncos. I was shocked how lean but wiry Dawk was. He was very nice to everyone and very unassuming. Definitely a family man. Since Dawk is my favorite Eagle ever, I talked to Troy Vincent. LOL Great guy also. Very articulate and friendly. Vincent on the otherhand, was surprisingly tall and well built. I asked him if Dawk was upset and he said “its all business and NFL players understand that”. It was pretty cool to go on a free business vacation to Maui with Dawk and Troy Vincent on the same plane. The only thing that was missing was Jessica Biel in a bikini serving me beer. Umm, definitely not PBR.

  3. 3 TommyLawlor said at 11:16 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Good story, except for the end.

  4. 4 P_P_K said at 1:50 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    You lucked out. Great story.

  5. 5 Yuri said at 1:56 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    The only Eagles jersey I own is that of #20… I will wait for the dedicated post before commenting more.

  6. 6 JRO91 said at 10:05 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Tommy – not sure if you read the trade scenarions over on BGN between the Eagles/Pats. A lof of thought about the Eagles giving the Pats a 2nd and a boat load of late rounders to get the pats 27th or 31st. One of the scenarios is us taking Luke at 15 and then the best d lineman left with the late 1st.

    Walter Football updated his mock…(i know some people hate his mock, but I think he does a decent job at a 6 round mock.) He has us going 1st – Coples 2nd -Janoris Jenkins 2nd- Bobby Wagner. i could live with those three as our first three picks.

  7. 7 Brett Smith said at 10:50 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I would call Coples and Jenkins serious risks/gambles. Not sure I would be ok with that scenario.

  8. 8 TommyLawlor said at 11:19 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I had not read those scenarios. Interesting.

    The Pats have:


  9. 9 deg0ey said at 2:34 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Not quite; They’ve got 1,1,2,2,3,4

    Rather than the suggestion on BGN of giving up both of our 2nd rounders for a 1, a 3 and a 6, I’d prefer the following…

    To Patriots: #15, #51, #114, #172
    To Eagles: #27, #48, #62, 2013 3rd

    Obviously this would require the Pats to want to move up, but if they do, could be quite a good deal for both parties…

  10. 10 R G said at 10:15 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    If Andy Reid admitted that he made a mistake with the LBs last year, you have to assume the Eagles are going to address LB in the draft. I loved Demeco Ryans in college but one guy isn’t going to fix the LBs as a group. The Eagles have been tied by the media to DT for the draft. This of course means they must be targeting another position..LB? I wonder if they would move up to get LK? The Eagles are never public with their drafting plans. The last time the media and fans were right about a pick was Brod Bunkley. My gut says the Eagles are going to trade up for LK.

    Tommy..any chance its a double smokescreen and maybe a guy like Melvin Ingram is the guy?

    I am confused as ever. This is gonna be fun!

  11. 11 TommyLawlor said at 11:20 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I think the Eagles want to take a LB early. They won’t reach, but I think they’ll grab a LB if the right guy is on the board in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round.

    Ingram? He should be a guy Washburn likes, but I’ve not heard or read that anywhere. I get the feeling Melvin will be gone by the time 15 rolls around.

  12. 12 Eric Weaver said at 10:28 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Tommy, do you think Michael Brockers could play NT in Ryan’s system?

  13. 13 ACViking said at 10:53 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Here’s my 2 cents before T-LAW answers.

    When it came to the D-lineman on the center’s nose when Buddy Ryan called the 46 defense, Buddy had incredible good fortune.

    In Chicago, Buddy used HOFer Dan Hampton — a DT from his rookie year in ’79 until mid-’85, when Wm Perry became a starter on the Bears.

    In Philadelphia, Buddy inherited DE — and HOFer — Reggie White, who would be the guy on the center’s nose in the 46.

    Both White and Hampton not only were big but athletic and quick.

    Again, my 2 cents, but I don’t think Brockers would be NT in the 46. He’d be more the “Mike Pitts/Mike Golic”type — always lining up over one of the guards.

  14. 14 Eric Weaver said at 11:10 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    **weird, this didn’t come as a reply**

    I guess that’s true. Not that Ryan selected Ratliff, but he’s more the quick/athletic NT as opposed to just an immovable force.

  15. 15 TommyLawlor said at 11:21 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I think Brockers can play NT. Not sure he wants to, but he can.

  16. 16 Mikko Koikkalainen said at 10:40 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Dawk retiterent is an end of an era for me. I found football in 2004 and immediately Dawk became my favourite player. True pro and class act. I actually feel sad right now. Never knew I would get so attached to a player.

    Tommy, I want to thank you for runnig this great site. For European guy you have helped me alot to understand the game and I love the humour you add to football talk. This is the only community I follow, I cant stand all the signatures in BGN, it is really annoying to read. Too bad most of the conversation happens when I sleap but newertheless I enjoy reading all to comments. Keep up the good work.

    PS. Sorry for possible spelling mistakes, It`s hard to write with sobby eyes…

  17. 17 Eric Weaver said at 10:54 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    That’s one thing I like about myself. I’ve been following football (Penn St. and Eagles closely) since I’m 6, so it’s been 24 years, and I’ve never found myself getting attached to players. It makes the trade/retirement transition easier for me to handle. I only get bummed when I think about how it impacts the team in the present and future.

    I still buy jerseys, but I generally like buying more obscure ones that are not the mainstream players.

  18. 18 TommyLawlor said at 11:22 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Always glad to hear from our European brothers.

    Dawk was a great player. Lots of great memories with him.

  19. 19 dislikedisqus said at 10:41 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Your observations about small schoolers are very accurate.

    I’m not sure I would trade down if C & K are gone. If Floyd is there, I take him fast. I also think DeCastro would be terrific and putting him in for Watkins might be the biggest upgrade available at that point. Barron would not be crazy.

    I give the odds as 25% chance Eagles trade up for C or K. 25% chance they get K at 15. 25% chance they pick someone else at 15. 25% chance they trade down. )% chance they get Cox at 15.

  20. 20 JRO91 said at 11:52 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I think Watkins will suprise some people this year…why waste a pick on another guard. We have two very good guards. Everyone bitched and moaned when they took the best guard in the draft last year….

  21. 21 Anders Jensen said at 7:03 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Also Watkins should take a huge step forward with a whole offseason

  22. 22 Eric Weaver said at 10:55 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I guess that’s true. Not that Ryan selected Ratliff, but he’s more the quick/athletic NT as opposed to just an immovable force.

  23. 23 NoDecaf said at 11:07 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Surely the Vikings brass finally has their heads on straight by now, don’t they? Ok, my thought is that some of Andy Reid’s logic passed to LF. So, unless Reid works a Jedi mind trick on Frazier, LF stays aware of the value and need for a quality left tackle.

  24. 24 TommyLawlor said at 11:24 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    It is so hard to tell what is legit info and what is posturing. I’m guessing Leslie is throwing stuff out there to help with trades, but he could be shooting us straight. Maybe they don’t want a LT that high. I’d take Kalil.

  25. 25 Donald Kalinowski said at 11:20 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    If the best player available at pick 15 is David DeCastro, I would draft him instead of settling for guys like Nick Perry or Michael Brockers.

  26. 26 T_S_O_P said at 11:48 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I said this in the last topic as it was ending, but if you read Matt’s blurb on Scouts Notebook, the OT class other than Kalil isn’t exciting anyone. Those teams needing OL in the top 14 will look long and hard at both DeCastro and Glenn. Guard is a position of increasing importance, I either read that here or from a link posted here and so.

    I read one mock where the Jags selected DeCastro, now that would be jaw dropping, but probably better value than picking Tyson whatever at 10 a couple of years back.

  27. 27 Donald Kalinowski said at 12:21 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Tyson Jackson or Tyson Alualu? Jacksonville has a history of reaching for guys, so I have them taking Rieff instead. But drafting DeCastro could work if they move Eben Britton to RT. Has anyone ever noticed that they like to draft two guys of the same position with their 1st two picks?-

    2010- DTs Tyson and Smith
    2009- OTs Britton and Monroe
    2008- DEs Harvey and Groves

    If they don’t pick players of the same position, they usually pick players on the same side of the ball such as offense or defense.

    2011- QB Gabbert and G Rackley
    2007- S Nelson and OLB Durant

    They’ve also been alternating every year for the past 4 years when in terms of offensive and defensive players they draft-

    2011- offense
    2010- defense
    2009- offense
    2008- defense

  28. 28 T_S_O_P said at 12:40 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I wanted Rackley, maybe they don’t need DeCastro.

  29. 29 mheil said at 11:46 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Dawk and Donovan retiring, the latter because he is unwanted, is the passing of an era. I never understood why Donovan took heat for bad play in the championship games and SB, which was well deserved, but Dawk got a pass. He never delivered like the other star safetys in those games.
    No interceptions, forced fumbles, minimal passes defended, nothing like Harrison, Reed, Polamalu

  30. 30 P_P_K said at 1:55 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Unfortunately for Donny, a lot of Eagles fans base their evaluation as emotion and , sometimes, an innacurate story-line. I think the knowledgeable fan, like you, was able to analyze the play of the two guys more realistically and objectively.

  31. 31 nopain23 said at 11:48 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Hey T
    Sorry but ur wrong.The Doomsday scenario is that the iggles pick POE!!!!

  32. 32 TommyLawlor said at 11:53 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    To many, you are right.

    I’m not a fan of them taking Poe, but I am fascinated by the guy’s upside.

  33. 33 Donald Kalinowski said at 12:31 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I’d be more pissed if they took Weeden. Which IMO, is not entirely out of the realm of possibility based on what I’ve seen from Andy through the years.

    I don’t want Poe but I could talk myself into it. Apparently Poe struggles due to lack of technique instead of talent or work ethic. With a coach like Washburn, I would take that risk if I were to trade down in the 1st or trade up in the 2nd.

  34. 34 bridgecoach said at 12:53 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I like Poe. I had us taking him Rd2 in my early mocks – well before bowl games. I think he is exactly the kind of athletic big man who can thrive with Washburn’s coaching. I don’t think his coaches knew what to do with him or how to help him play to his potential. But he clearly has smarts and work ethic and with the right coach, the sky is the limit. Teams that need an immediate starter may shy away, but any team looking for a player in rotation with superstar upside will jump at the chance to get him into camp.

  35. 35 NoDecaf said at 12:32 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I just pray the red phone rings prior so that Jeff Lurie can tell Andy,
    “Hell no, we won’t Poe!” (alright, only so-so)

    Tommy would you take Poe over D. Wolfe?

  36. 36 TommyLawlor said at 2:01 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    For the Eagles? I would take Wolfe.

  37. 37 NoDecaf said at 2:37 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    That’s what I thought! Just say no…to Poe!

  38. 38 T_S_O_P said at 11:53 AM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Tommy, on the last topic of QBs and Trent Edwards in particular, he is a player that comes with Bill Walsh’s recommendation, which would not be lost on Reid and Moronwig, in fact may be central to their intrigue.
    And Bill Walsh, the Hall of Fame coach who died in August, was such a big believer in Edwards that he called Bills general manager and fellow Hall of Famer Marv Levy shortly after the draft to tout Edwards’ ability.

  39. 39 TommyLawlor said at 2:01 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Good call. I do remember reading about that. Trent doesn’t lack ability.

    He was greatly affected by some injuries. QBs must have confidence. If not, all the natural talent is meaningless. We need Marty/Andy to build up his confidence.

  40. 40 M0rton said at 12:11 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Tommy I’m still waiting for some post discussing Miles Burris.

    This kid will be the steal of the draft for whichever team gets him in the 2nd round or later.

    In fact, I’d give him a top-20 grade in this draft. He’s an athletic freak that put up monster numbers in college. I have no clue why more draft analysts aren’t talking about this kid. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if some smart team does draft him as high as the 2nd round.

  41. 41 TommyLawlor said at 1:59 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I will post thoughts on him tonight. I promise.

  42. 42 JRO91 said at 3:23 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Drafting this kid higher than the 4th would set this franchise back at least 5 years

  43. 43 ACViking said at 12:35 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    RE: what happens at No. 15 . . .


    It’s all about the Red Zone. Right? (That seemed to be Jim Johnson’s approach. And Marion Campbell, too — a great D.C. during the Vermeil era.)

    So, first, on which side of the ball do the Eagles need to improve their RZ performance more?

    Second, which player in this draft — within reach of the Eagles by a trade up or down — would be the guy who does that?

  44. 44 TommyLawlor said at 2:06 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    It SHOULD be all about the Red Zone. Andy/Howie may feel differently.

    There isn’t one player who will significantly change the RZ defense. That is helped by the presence of Ryans at MLB and us trading Asante. If we could throw Kuechly to the mix, that would be nice.

    RZ offense needs another weapon. This is where dealing back for Fleener would help. Eagles could also benefit from a speedy slot guy like Wylie.

  45. 45 ACViking said at 3:10 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    That’s a BINGO

  46. 46 bridgecoach said at 12:44 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I don’t think picking the next six is so impossible. Especially when you sort them into positions.

    Pass rush: Ingram/Coples/Upshaw/Cox/Poe
    NT: Brockers/Poe
    WR: Floyd
    Secondary: Barron Kirkpatrick
    OL: Reiff/Martin/DeCastro/Glenn
    DL: Cox/Poe/Brockers/Coples/Upshaw/Ingram

    All of the players above are at key positions valued highly in today’s NFL. All of the names above with the exception of maybe Glenn, have been clear top 15 names this offseason at one point or another.

    Kuechly is the player every team loves and wants, but can’t afford to take with a top 14 pick with so many potential stars available at need positions.

  47. 47 TommyLawlor said at 2:03 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    It is impossible to know which 6 are most likely. This is where you need good NFL scuttlebutt to make educated guesses. I get a bit of that, but not nearly enough.

  48. 48 Jason said at 1:30 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Great reporting and analysis as always. I’m all for using a #3 and strongly considering a #2 to move up and take Cox or Kuechly. However, the argument about not letting the board come to the Eagles and draft Bowers hinges on our surplus at NT. What if we move Dixon if we draft Bowers and then pursue Wolfe in the draft or Dorsey via trade with KC. Wouldn’t Dorsey and Dixon have commensurate late round pick value?

    In essence, would we do better by keeping the 2nd or 3rd and taking Bowers if our choices would be:
    Cox & Boykin/Slot Corner & Wagner/#3 LB (keep Dixon) OR
    Bowers & Kendricks/#2 LB & Boykin/SC & Wolfe (trade Dixon)

  49. 49 Jason said at 1:53 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Sorry, obviously meant Michael Brockers above, not Bowers

  50. 50 TommyLawlor said at 1:58 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I’m going to assume you mean Brockers (not Bowers).

    Hard to say. Trading Dixon is possible, but wouldn’t be ideal. You won’t get good value since he’s coming off injury.

    Dorsey is a mixed bag. He’s playing out of place, so that lowers his value. I think he could be a very nice fit in our scheme. Let him attack up the field.

    I don’t know what to say about Brockers. I didn’t think the Eagles would like him, but there is enough talk that I’m now guessing they do actually have some interest. I wouldn’t love the pick, but I do trust Washburn.

    We don’t have any scenario that we “must” do. We’ve got the flexibility to move up or back. We can sit tight and see if Luke or Cox happens to fall. Eagles have lots of options. Can’t say what is best til we see how things start to go.

  51. 51 Dave_King said at 1:46 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Looking at the QBs coming out next year (Barkley, Wilson, Landry, Geno, and maybe some underclassmen), I think the Eagles would be much wiser to pick a QB in the 2013 draft. My personal favorite, as a VT fan, though he might not come out, is Logan Thomas – I really think he has the potential to be someone special. What are your views on him?

  52. 52 TommyLawlor said at 1:50 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Too early to say a lot, but love what I’ve seen in casually watching him. Looks like serious NFL potential.

  53. 53 ACViking said at 3:21 PM on April 23rd, 2012:


    In light of your answer to my question about QB Ryan Lindley (SDSU) — i.e., the loss of HC Brady Hoke and his starting WRs — I think the kid’s worth, say, an early 6th round pick (No. 199?).

    Athletically, he’s about as mobile as Brady or the Mannings. So that shouldn’t be held against him.

    More important is his pocket presence. (Eli had some rough times in Oxford MS during his college career.)

    The big problem, certainly this year, was Lindley’s scatter-shot passing. He’d hit a couple sweet passes. Then toss one about 20 feet in the wrong direction.

    Anyway, Lindley — unlike Osweiler — has lots of starts. And — unlike Cousins — prototypical size and gun.

    Come to think of it, Lindley conjures up memories of Rick Arrington (whom I’d guess only about 5 people who read this blog will know without looking him up).

  54. 54 T_S_O_P said at 3:37 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Come to think of it, Lindley conjures up memories of Rick Arrington (whom I’d guess only about 5 people who read this blog will know without looking him up)
    I know him, he sang Sang Never Gonna Give You Up, what of him?

    Hated it then, grown a little on me since.

  55. 55 ACViking said at 4:09 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Not sure we’re talking about the same guy here.

    HINT: sports reporter Jill Arrington’s father

  56. 56 T_S_O_P said at 4:39 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    That would mean I have to look it up. 🙂

  57. 57 ACViking said at 5:55 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Former Eagles QB from the very early ’70s. Rocket arm. Good size (for back then). But he had bad knees and bad coaching.

    Here’s the link

  58. 58 GeorgeFleep said at 4:00 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    If eagles draft a NT in either the 1st or 2nd rounds would the eagles d line shuffle around? As of now the whole in the roster seems to be at 2nd UT spot. Landri will almost definitely win a spot so that leaves Dixon out of luck. Would the eagles have him try UT and cut weight if needed. He has power, which you would want him maintained. Does he have enough speed and quickness off the ball and is he good in space. It comes down to would Dixon be able to get to the QB at UT. Dixon isn’t a natural pass rusher, but he has some quickness off the ball and his size allows him to push the pocket. How well can Dixon bend? It is unkown how good Dixon is in this new line.

    I like the idea of the ends and tackles staying outside and inside. Obviously would like the best players on the field during a critical downs. I can see a veteran switching from outside to inside or vice versa because he knows what he has to do but especially not a rookie. This being said i also like the idea of lets say players like cedric thornton and antonio dixon whom do not have a specific role(that we know of) on this d line could players that switch between UT and NT.

    and is this thing legit:!/phillthies/status/194469084451188736

  59. 59 nopain23 said at 4:00 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Ok draft is 3 days away, time for predictions.not what you want to happen but what will happen with the iggles in the 1st rd.I predict with Cox and Luke gone by pick 15..iggles trade back and take the BPA on their board…Worthy…..what say you Tommy?…..

  60. 60 ACViking said at 4:13 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Who exactly would the Patriots want at No 15 in Rd 1?

    They have the muscle to move up to No 3 — though moving up is something Belichick’s never done.

    There’s one player whom I think the Pats would hugely benefit from drafting: Fletcher Cox.

    He’d be worth a move up to Jax’s pick at No. 7.

    Plus, the way Belichick’s drafted the past few years, why not frost the offer to beat the competition.

  61. 61 jjlwins said at 5:25 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Tommy….long time reader and fan of your work. I think your analysis of draft scenarios is right on except for one thing. I agree with you that Fletcher Cox looks like an ideal fit and that it’s highly unlikely he lasts to pick 15. I agree that there are going to be some very good football players available in round 2 and I’m also not enthralled with the choices at 15 if Cox and Kuechly are gone. In considering the option to trade up for Fletcher Cox, I ask the following question:
    Which of the following would you rather have?
    A: Fletcher Cox minus your 2nd and one from the list below, or
    B: Jerel Worthy/Stephen Hill/Hightower/Fleener/or another player in this range plus 3 from the list below

    players who might be available 46-60:
    Bobby Wagner, LB,
    Lavonte David, LB,
    Mychal Kendricks, LB,
    Zach Brown, LB,
    Lamar Miller, RB,
    David Wilson, RB,
    Trumaine Johnson, CB,
    Brandon Boykin, CB,
    Janoris Jenkins, CB
    Jayron Hosley, CB
    Derek Wolfe, DT,
    Brandon Thompson, DT
    Mohamed Sanu, WR,

    I think, I’d rather have option B:

    I can clearly see why you love Luke Kuechly. He’s a tackling machine and a good instinctive football player that looks like he’ll play in the NFL for a long time. A consensus top 15 talent. No doubt he would improve our linebacking core. I get it. I just can’t see the Eagles taking him at 15 considering that we haven’t drafted a linebacker in round one since 1979. I don’t think it’s just a coincidence. In addition, you want to move him away from his more natural MLB position to SAM. When was the last time you saw a SAM prospect drafted in round one?………your thoughts.

  62. 62 Jason said at 5:51 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I’d actually argue option A…Are the Eagles really a team with a lot of holes that should be stockpiling picks? I don’t think so. I’m generally one of those guys who thinks draft picks are a bit overvalued, so unless we are getting a 2013 1st rounder in a deal, I’d prefer to have HIGHER picks, rather than MORE picks.

    Therefore I prefer us to trade up, and get the best player possible. Trade value chart says that #15 plus pick #88 gets up to pick #12, or #15 plus pick #51 might gets you halfway between #8 and #9.

    Of course it ll depends on how the draft board falls too. If Eagles board has a big drop off after Cox and Kuechly, then it would be silly to sit and watch them get picked when we have a spare 2nd rounder to use and trade up.

  63. 63 Jason said at 6:00 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    Depends how the draft board falls, but I think a decent guy can be had at #15 with a bit of luck. You’ve got the 5 elites who will definitely be gone (Luck, RGIII, Claiborne, Richardson, Kalil),

    But then there’s 6 others who I see as better than the rest:

    I would not be unhappy with any of them, even though some may not be the biggest areas of need. So that’s my 11 top guys in the draft. Tannehill and Gilmore will get picked early too, and possibly Poe, Coples, Reiff, Barron and Brockers as well, so it only needs 2 of those 5 to get picked and one of the top 11 will get to us, all while staying at 15. That’s looking strictly at BPA, you could argue Gilmore is good for us too because he fits and need, I just don’t think he’s quite as elite a prospect. Worthy of #15 though probably.

    All that said, I’d prefer we trade up. We have 4 picks in the first 3 rounds, I don’t see why a team as strong as the Eagles should need more than 3, use 1 and trade up to get the man we like. If the draft board is close, just trade up to 12/13 to get ahead of Cowboys, if there is a big gap in the draft board, try to get to 7/8 with a 2nd rounder and get the best guy possible.

  64. 64 jjlwins said at 7:07 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    We need only 3 players? Better look over the roster again.
    CB 1-2 ( 1 slot corner and 1 to possibly replace Asante)
    RB 1 (backup)
    WR/KR 1-2 (to compete with Cooper and Hall)
    DT – 1 (depth)
    LB 1-2 (SAM and WILL depth)
    DE – 1 (depth)

    2) Trading up to pick 8 means Miami doesn’t want Tannehill and/or he was picked earlier. Are your sure about that? Trading up to pick 7 would cost #46 plus a 6th.
    3) Haven’t some of the biggest mistakes occurred when we traded up to target a player rather than take the BPA?
    4) Some analysts have indicated there’s not a wide separation in talent from 10-30 and that there is a sweet spot of value in round 2.
    5) Is the difference between Fletcher Cox and Jerel Worthy greater than both Lavonte David and Brandon Boykin or Trumaine Johnson and David Wilson? Because if you trade up to 7-9, you’re only going to have one 2nd. If Fletcher Cox is available at 15, great. If not, seek greater value. I’d rather have 3 picks in round 2.

  65. 65 Eagles1991 said at 6:46 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I think an interesting question has to be asked… Should the birds trade up and have the luxury of Cox or Kuechly, whom do they take?

  66. 66 nopain23 said at 8:41 PM on April 23rd, 2012:


  67. 67 A Roy said at 8:27 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    You guys look at the value chart as if it’s gospel when it’s more like some figure from the Antiques Road Show. The value of a draft pick is what someone is willing to pay for it…and give up for it. Obviously, Washington paid beyond the chart to get RG3. I’m sure others have paid less than the chart. (I’d be willing to bet we’ll see at least one first round draft that gives up less than what the chart recommends.) I’d love to see a comparison of what trades have been done and how close they come to that chart.

  68. 68 ACViking said at 9:05 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    RE: Fletcher Cox & “The Draft Advisory Board” reports that that the DAB gave Cox a 2nd-round grade.


    What are the criteria, to the best of your knowledge or understanding, on which the DAB base its grade?

    Also . . . who the heck are on the DAB?

  69. 69 ICDogg said at 10:21 PM on April 23rd, 2012:

    I would love to add Floyd to our receiver corps. I know people have been saying for years how the 3rd receiver is a “starter”, but they don’t really act as though they mean it. To me, though, for a team that likes to pass as much as the Eagles do, adding a big time receiver to the two that we already have will make our existing weapons that much more deadly and give opposing defenses nightmares. Especially a big target who could help in the end zone immediately.

  70. 70 eagleizeit said at 3:42 AM on April 24th, 2012:

    Tommy – Did you see Mel Kiper JR last week putting Derek Wolfe as his 4th best DT and had him being picked 25th overall. I don’t know if I’m missing something or what. He also had us picking DE Jones from Syracuse at 15. I’m hoping we get LK at 15 and Mel’s a little crazy so we can get Wolfe with our 3rd rd pick. I’d rather keep our picks and get LK hearing that he’s the safest pick in the draft on D, ranked consistently btwn 6-11 by everyone throughout the whole process, would be a perfect SAM or MLB in our system and would probably give us the best starting LB’s(especially since our other D pos coaches are a lot more talented and could produce results while we wouldn’t need superior coaching with this group of LB’s). 
    Saw 1 of your mocks I printed out last yr where we actually got 3 of your picks in Thornton, Mathews and Rolle. Good job!! I think Thornton’s going to surprise people this yr. Remember hearing the end of last yr how Jenkins was really taking him under his wings. Thinks like that seem to really help young players out; wouldn’t be surprised if Jerry Rice working a lot with D-Jax b4 the draft is what got him prepared & ready to jump out of the gates with a great start in his career.

  71. 71 ceteris_paribus1776 said at 10:07 AM on April 24th, 2012:

    I’m been thinking more about Gilmore. I think he could immediately be the slot CB then move outside in a couple years when either DRC or Nnamdi is gone. If he fell, it may be that Cox, Tannehill, Keuchly, Coples, are all gone. I think they’d still be able to get a good LB (Wagner) and DT (Reyes, Wolfe) in the second to go along with an elite CB talent like Gilmore. Thoughts?