Denver Isn’t That Good
Posted: September 23rd, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 78 Comments »Sure, the Broncos lead the Raiders 27-7 at the half. Yes, Peyton Manning has set one NFL record already tonight. But his QB rating isn’t a perfect 158.3. He’s all the way down at 152.1. Manning is a bigger hack than Jimmy Bama.
Denver has only sacked Terrelle Pryor twice. And they’ve allowed 7 points. You read that right…7!!! Clearly they can’t stop anyone.
I’m sensing an Eagles cakewalk on Sunday.
Okay…just in case Manning gets lucky and plays well…any ideas on how to stop him?
_
It’s not gonna be easy but here’s what gives Eagles their best shot:
The offense will be okay if it can limit penalties and turn overs. Eagles have really relied on chunk plays (~ 20-30 yards) but a lot of time their offense will run for 2-4 yards or screen pass for 5-6 yards which is okay. Chip is all about getting positive yards. Penalties, turnovers, and sacks move you
backwards. Simple concept but hallmark of Chip’s offensive scheme. If
you run enough plays eventually you will hit on plenty of chunk plays
and score TDs. Last week Eagles did not execute on offense and as a
result had a ton of negative plays. Denver doesn’t need more short fields.
The Defense is the bigger issue.
http://www.philadelphiaeagles….
Chiefs ran same play in different drives on 3rd and long. Eagles need
to get aggressive and challenge offenses to beat them deep.
Now Denver is a completely different story, I get it. However, its
still best to force Peyton Manning to beat you on deep throws. He loves
throwing screens, short slants, easy completions. Best bet is to take
those away and see if Peyton really has the juice to throw it down field
(something Eagles should have forced Alex Smith to do). Single high
safety should be the look most of the time. Allow Fletch, Cary, and
Boykin to play man. Will they give up plays? Sure, but the Eagles are
already having breakdowns as it is. The blitzers can’t give away their
intentions early in the play clock (like they did against Rivers). Maybe
I’m in the minority but I think the defense can be serviceable enough
to win games if Billy Davis can make adjustments.
Offense: limit penalties (less than 4), 1-2 sacks, no turnovers
Defense: challenge short throws, screens, and runs
ST: Return back to form
= Eagles beat the Broncos on Sunday.
You never go broke taking a profit
A Buddy Ryan-style bounty. We know that the defense can’t legally stop him. It would sure be convenient if he slipped on a mat during practice and had to miss the game because of that. I personally love Peyton Manning so it’s hard for me to wish he got hurt, but if he had to for one week, this would be the one.
Hire the guy that whacked Nancy Kerrigan?
Now this is funny
How is Manning’s statline not a perfect rating? He’s actually had a few incompletions here in the second half but is still 26/31 for 306 and 3 scores. QB rating such a flawed stat.
Why is QB rating a flawed stat just because he didnt have a perfect one?
Passer rating actually does a fantastic job measuring the effectiveness of the passing attack. Also the team there wins the passer rating (offensive-defensive passer rating) win games in around 90% of the time. The only single stat there is better to tell the winner after a game is score differential (doh!). DVOA from FO also is up there, but that is much more advanced than passer rating.
Vinny Curry.
He’s old. Short week. I’ll be surprised if he can even lead Denver to a single touchdown on Sunday.
We can tell Peyton that it’s a playoff game…
Break out the fake snow machines.
Brilliant. Kudos, Iskar.
For someone who is one of the best, if not THE BEST, regular season QBs of all time, I don’t get how he doesn’t have 3-4 more SB rings.
It’s as if he got the regular season mastery down pat but the playoffs are too big for him. I remember that was a knock on him coming out of Tennessee. Yet Eli is the opposite: mostly mediocre in the regular season, mostly outstanding in the playoffs.
I can’t lie, I do like watching Peyton work his magic though. I started to feel bad for him after his multiple playoff choke jobs. If the Eagles don’t win it all this year, then I wouldn’t mind seeing him get one more before he hangs them up.
As for Sunday (besides convincing Peyton it’s a playoff game) I’m convinced we have a chance. The Eagles need to play a flawless offensive game though. If they do that it should be a score in the 40’s for each team…maybe.
My best friend is a Broncos fan and whenever we went to a sports bar, we always watched both the Eagles games and the Broncos games, so in a sense, the Broncos became my AFC team. When the Broncos signed Buckhalter and Dawkins, while I hated seeing them go from the Eagles, it sort of sealed the deal for me that the Broncos were my second favorite team. I was really down on them when McDaniels pushed Cutler out (not giving Cutler a pass during that mess by any means, but McDaniels handled that situation incredibly poorly himself) and then went after Tebow, but was so pumped when they found a way to escape from having Tebow win the starting job poorly from a PR standpoint by signing Peyton.
I hope the Eagles destroy the Broncos (I doubt it happens… but nothing wrong with hoping), but I would definitely love to see Manning succeed with the Broncos and have a quality post-season and minimize one of the few blemishes in his career.
The Eagles have lost a little bit of that opening game “shine” so I don’t think the national media (or the local media for that matter) think they have a chance.
I watched Peyton destroy the Raiders tonight, and will probably have nightmares about what he’ll do to the Eagles Sunday, but I believe the Eagles will give them a run.
Peyton COULD pull some Phillip Rivers “lets melt the clock for all its worth” type offense, but I am hoping part of him relishes the challenge of going toe to toe with offensive explosiveness.
Not sure I know what to make of Denver’s defense right now though. Sounds like they had some guys hurt and out (Champ Bailey and others) that may or may not be available Sunday.
I just hope we show up and come out swinging! I never felt like offense really got into a groove against the Chiefs.
I’ll be honest, I think your name says it all. I’d love to hopeful and believe that the Eagles have a real chance in this game, but Denver is one of the best teams in the league right now. Eagles are still trying to figure things out. Our offense is good, but I think people need to also account for the fact that we played two terrible defenses (32nd and 31st ranked defenses in Washington and San Diego respectively). In fact, those two defenses are giving up 488 yds/gm and 470.7 yds/gm respectively with the next closest team, the Eagles, giving up 438.3. Part of that is because they faced the Eagles obviously, but clearly the success we had on offense is not simply because we are that dominant.
The Broncos defense is not great right now with some guys out with injuries/Von Miller out with his suspension, but it is way better than SD and Washington. I expect us to be a good offense, but not great, and with Peyton going against our defense, I think we will need to put 30+ to even stand a chance. I just don’t see that happening.
The “choke” label is really unfair.
1) Peyton elevated good Colt teams to a higher level, then in the playoffs against superior talent they struggled – he got his ring the one year the Colts played first rate defense, usually he was having to outscore 3-4 teams in a row to get a ring.
2) Patriots were his big problem, because until they started enforcing the rules, Belichick would mug the quick but not that physical Colt receivers, destroying the timing of the Colt passing game. See 2003.
Peyton’s overall playoff performance is among the leaders of the current (post 1990) era.
63.2% 7.46 YPA 32-31 88.4 QB rating
He lost his first three playoff games, 1999, 2000, 2002, and played poorly in all three, growing pains.
2003: lost in NE in a “mugging” after two great performances to get to the AFCCG
2004: lost in NE after destroying Denver at home.
2005: lost 21-18 to Pittsburgh, 290 yards, 1 TD
2006: won all four games
2007: lost 28-24 to SD despite 402 yards, 3-2
2008: lost 23-17 to SD despite 310 yards, 1-0
2009: lost 31-17 to NO in the SB, 333 yards, 1-1
2010: lost 17-16 to NYJ, 225, 1-0
2012: lost 38-35 to Balt, 290, 3-2
It’s not like he played terrible in those losses, last 5 losses, averaged 312 yards passing a game, 9 TD, 5 Int. Most of his losses came against tough defenses where his teammates didn’t rise to the occasion.
Good analysis and break down of the numbers. Choke may be unfair, but it seems that he has come up smaller in the big moments in those games.
I don’t have the numbers or all the exact situations, but he seemed to struggle in the crunch time moments despite playing well for most of the game.
Yes, maybe his teammates didn’t rise to the occasion, but I also felt he didn’t always rise to the occasion either.
Would you agree for how great he has been in the regular season, that it’s not a stretch to think he should have a few more SB rings?
Luck is such an underrated part of sports, and championships in particular. How much of the “crunch moments” performance is just a sticky helmet or a teammate’s slip on the turf?
This is a great point! I can think of all the unlucky things that have happened to the Eagles in their quest for a championship.
I’m not hating on Peyton. We all know that football is such a team dependent sport that no one player can win the game. Yet, we’ve also seen how one player takes over and seemingly wills their team to win.
Peyton is one of the greatest QBs I have ever seen play. He’s a QB savant. For someone who has been so dominant in his career I thought he’d have more championships by now.
I think what confounds me about Peyton not winning more championships is the truth of how hard it is to get to, and win a Super Bowl.
I’ve minimized that truth. I think I’d like it to be like this: best players = championships. When it really is in today’s NFL more like this: Good coaches +Good players + hot team + luck, and few other factors= championship.
I’ve been waiting a long time for the Eagles to get that formula right!
The best part of this broadcast is Chucky and Tirico trying to sell the game like its within the realm of reality that the Raiders could win.
Down 30-7 they get a turnover and Tirico says “Man, the Raiders needed that one!” As if it matters.
Ha.
Tommy, do you think the lack of variation on offense may be due to the 3 games in 11 days?
Chip likes to only call plays that players have practiced leading up to the game.
We get normal weeks here on out.
Possible. We’ll learn a lot more in the next 6 weeks.
Not Tommy, but I wondered about that too. The Eagles were really in a bind (not making excuses) with the schedule for these first three games, not to mention the first three games of a head coaches career in The League.
I’m hoping we show some variation, but not variation just for variation sake. I know we are limited at WR but the heavy TE package would be interesting to see, if Chip thinks that gives us the advantage.
The Chiefs provided the blueprint for beating an explosive offense: really good personnel.
So obviously we’re set! ……
It’ll be really interesting to see the Chiefs play the Broncos. Will the man coverage work consistently against Denver?
Lets trade for Darren Mcfadden to play QB. That was an NFL throw.
Seriously though, I think they need to follow the old Tecmo Bowl strategy:
1. Score a TD on every possession.
2. Work the clock to get the final possession of each half.
I think you forget 3 & 4.
3. Vick heaves multiple 60+ yard TD bombs to Jackson.
4. McCoy runs up and down the field repeatedly making defenders miss all quarter and then scores a TD when the 1st qtr clock runs out.
I’ve won many Tecmo games based on that strategy.
If you haven’t seen this.. it’s glorious. Eli Manning stuck in “manning face” since yesterday.
http://www.sportspickle.com/2013/09/report-eli-mannings-face-stuck-like?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=report-eli-mannings-face-stuck-like
It actually looks like Denver’s pass rush isn’t too fearsome. I think if we can force them to come up against the run the pass could be deadly.
I say we just have Vick race Manning and the winner gets the victory. Or we can use the Stableford scoring method.
I am more curious to see what the over/under is for the Eagles-Broncos game and if it above 65. I saw a number before tonight’s game where it was 59.5 or 60.5.
Eagles needs to somehow win the turnover ratio and have a standout day on ST to even have a shot to make this a game. I can’t see the Broncos putting up less than 30 pts this week though against this defense & secondary as long as the weather is favorable.
we trade for osi, and tell to go against winston justice and see if he can beat his personal best. But then again, I’m sure all the former eagles are out to get us so winston will turn into jonathan ogden for just one game.
I said it and will say it again and again: it’s the curse of former Eagles players!
Why do I have a feeling this game will be like the ’11 game between the Pats-Eagles (38-20) where the Eagles got out to an early lead and then Brady put a clinic on this team?
Not that I’m trying to forfeit this season, but what is everyone projecting our draft position for 2014?
20!
Vertical.
I think we can rule out anything from about 11-20. If we are not one of the 10 worst teams, there is a decent shot we win the division and go to the playoffs (and get bumped down to the last 12 spots).
Actually, are the wildcard teams picks 20-24, or do all the playoff teams get ranked by their records, regardless of how they got in?
I was wondering that too. People are excited by the idea we can win the division at 7-9, but getting to the playoffs without making a run is a bad idea draft-wise.
Rams in 2011: 7-9, pick 14
Seattle in 2011: 7-9, pick 25 (though they won a playoff game)
If Vick is a disaster again this week who commits turnovers galore and makes a ton of poor decisions while the Eagles get blown out, does Kelly consider making a QB change?
If DJ2 fumbles a kickoff will he get fired? If Herremens allows a sack, will he get benched? If Kendricks blows another tackle will we get Acho/McCoy of the street? Guy has two great games and you’re already ready to pull him as if we have someone better on the bench.
It’s week 3 of a new regime, there will be bumps, Vick will throw picks. At the same time there’s only 3 playmakers that defenses respect on offense. Taking out Vick eliminates two of them. You saw how KC defeated the bubble screen on thursday. We play Foles without that what else is left in our gameplan? Avent and Cooper can’t make plays on their own.
Vick had 2 great games? When? He played well enough overall in the first 2 games (I thought he actually played better in the SD game) but I wouldn’t say he played great in either one.
It was more along the lines if Kelly will give Vick an extended look or not if the record goes south & Vick continues to make turnovers. I think Vick would need to have a really poor month with Kelly considering benching him in Week 7 or 8 at the earliest.
What would be a great Vick performance for you? He finished those 2 games with the 3rd highest QBR in the league and no turnovers.
Denver definitely has issues, their secondary is exploitable (DRC is starting), i don’t think they can stop mccoy on a regular basis. Peyton is going to shred our defense, unless we can get pressure (Curry).
I think running our gameplan w/out penalties and turnovers we can be competitive.
DRC has actually played pretty well in the games I have watched. I guess it helps when your team isn’t going down the Shute.
Yeah I think I saw the stat that QB’s have a 28.someting rating when throwing his way this year.
Sigh.
Eh, if they keep a safety in the box, Kelly won’t call runs. Even if they couldn’t stop McCoy it won’t matter if he’s not getting the ball.
I wasn’t particularly impressed with Manning. To tell you the truth, I haven’t been since he came back from injury. It’s basically the same element of the Patriots 2011 and 2012 offense where they spring guys open all the time. I find that sort of offense terribly boring on tv. It’s also a very regular season offense that beats up on under-talented defenses and talented defenses on a bad day. Come playoffs, though, and you inevitably meet teams that will play disciplined coverages, and a stout front three or four that penetrates. I don’t see Manning doing any better than Brady has done, as a whole in the postseason.
Now, can the Eagles beat them? I think there’s a chance. Peyton Manning definitely can get rattled by pressure (two fumbles today and one lost) that gets to him on a consistent basis. Peyton Manning also has a weak arm. Get penetration, take away Welker, with double coverage if you have to so Manning throws longer balls. Single up on BeBe Thomas, and let him have the long TDs. Bring Allen in to help with the either the TE Thomas or Decker. Chung helps Boykin with Welker. The LBs switch assignments on coverage or hitting gaps with Chung and Allen–I wouldn’t try Kendricks on Thomas by himself.
The focus of all of this is to deny Manning easy throws. That’s what the offense is trying to do. The read and playcall will be what Manning handles, and the defense has to follow along with the look, but it’s gotta digest into usefully flooding the short area zones and pretty much killing the slot receiver in the middle of the field. Deny the short area usefully (while tackling well) and you should have him throwing some fairly interceptable longer balls. The Broncos-Chiefs game oughta be a classic, if Alex Smith can come out of that stupid shell of his.
On offense, DRC probably is useful in consideration of DJax, but I think DJax will still command double coverage. The Bronco defense, as a whole, has seriously bad hips, and they are really, really, dependent on sound play to be in position to make tackles, etc. More than that, the pass rush on what is an entirely depleted Raiders OL does not inspire fear. I know they were entirely playing vanilla, offense and defense, in the game, but it’s pretty clear that they are going to have to bring out some complicated stuff. While McFadden had a bad day running the ball, much of that is because McFadden can’t turn corners well, and he’s dependent on good OL play. I don’t see a Broncos defense that’s truly capable of handling either speed or agility from the RBs–check out how Pryor was able to turn the corner and then turn on afterburners on his runs. This defense can be beat the bleep down by the Eagles’ running game, and I’d want to see Bryce with more carries here, and in particular more catches in space. This is an old defense, and I really think big time speed here is the key to knocking them on their heels. I also think, especially in the red zone, triple option concepts have to be used here. I simply don’t want Vick passing too much in the -and goal situation. He shouldn’t even need to, given just how badly the Eagles should be able to stretch the defense vertically, and the vast majority of passes should be options to open fullbacks, TE (not the kind we saw at NO, last year–no quick hitting, no lob, no pass, baby) and fades to Cooper.
Special teams is probably pretty important here. The longer the field, the better the chance of a short passing game of messing up.
If the OL holds up, and if Vick has a good game, this should be a fairly high scoring game, and more fun to watch than that craptacular MNF game.
I’d in general review the opening Ravens game in terms of what the defense can do with an offense without lots of decent pass-catchers.
I just realized…The Eagles have a profoundly insane rushing performance as of week three. Overall, 6.6 yards per attempt rushing. As good as a bad passing attack. Vick is on pace for another thousand yard rushing season if he plays all sixteen games, with a 10.4 yards/attempt. Shady is heading for some pretty insane numbers if he continues this pace, which I think has been remarked on. Of course, this is early, but if this thing keeps up or only declines slightly, it will be a historic rushing attack.
Honestly, with no turnovers and even reasonable TD efficiency in the red zone and we will be winning some game, health permitting.
Agree with the last part. Less turnovers and less stupid penalties and we should be a in good health to win at least 6 games.
started slow, i really like watching Peyton on TV and the raider’s DBs are probably the strength of that team so i think they took away the long ball. That said i think the rest of the analysis is pretty spot on.
The key with Peyton is not to try to fool him, can’t be done, but to study his tendencies and break on those short passes and try to deflect the ball or force drops and fumbles. Keep it vanilla and play aggressive, because he’s gonna move the ball, you want to force mistakes through good play, not through mind games.
Peyton’s velocity is definitely off, I didn’t see much zip on his throws, but his touch and accuracy are as good as ever.
I wish we got rob Ryan Davis can’t make adjustments.
Rex Ryan*
I haven’t heard as much talk as I expected about how the altitude might affect the offense. Does it limit the speed they can play at? I know they’re among the fittest in the league, but this is another step up. Gotta think it levels the playing field a little when the D is used to those conditions and our O is not.
Maybe nobody’s talking about it because they expect this to be a blowout anyway so it doesn’t matter? 74-10 Eagles! (because a shutout is just unrealistic)
Kelly basically wrote it off saying that it’s mental. He said football is anaerobic — did not make it seem like they would fly out early. That said, seemed to me the OL was gassed last game and Vick made the comment that they need to do a better job of letting the team know if the offense is going too fast. So we’ll see how that plays out in the altitude.
If only we still had Asante the Manning Killa.
I hope we unleash Curry in this game.
Manning is the master of stepping up in pocket, but just like Brady, if the pressure comes from the interior he will get rattled.
Lets go with Curry-Thornton-Cox as the DL and then blitz Kendrick all day long as I do not want him in zone coverage against Julius Thomas. Have Nate Allen man cover J Thomas instead imo.
I will be thrilled if they hold Denver 30 points. I fully expect them to score 40. It looks me like they were pounding the deep outs last night, and then of course hit Welker underneath.
I think honestly the best thing to do is keep them off the field. Unfortunately that is not our MO Offensively this season
Cant stop Manning, only way to beat them to score every time we get the ball and match their TD with TD and hope for one defensive stop to give us the ball at the end to run down the clock.
Even Oakland got a stop occasionally. But our offense would have to perform at a level it just hasn’t reached yet, as good as it was those first two games (lots of stalled drives)…
The Eagles don’t have many ways that they can cause Peyton issues, but I believe in this way. The weakness of the Broncos offense is their run game. Now how can the Eagles get the Broncos to run the ball. Here is how:
Front Three:
Curry, Cox, Cole
Back Four:
Barwin, Ryans, Kendricks, Graham/Knott
The Eagles playing a multitude of pass rushers simultaneously, will force the Broncos to either exploit Graham’s side or rush the ball. It is imperative that the Eagles rush, rush, and rush effectively. Dirtying Peyton’s uniform is the only way to achieve success. And also limiting the time that Nate Allen sees the field.
Peyton handed the ball off when the safeties were back.
He also did pretty good against the blitz. The key might be to show blitz on every play, yet only rush 4, lulling him into a sense of security (or at least, not tipping our hand like with San Diego), so when we do blitz it’ll be more of a surprise.
Not letting receivers run wild through our zones would help, too.
More man coverage? Soft zones failed big time for the Raiders last night…
How did Peyton’s new LT hold up? We could try exploiting that weakness to get some pressure on Manning. We also need to score early to force them to try and keep pace. Allowing them to hold onto the ball for long periods could be problematic.
answer is simple. Start Nate Allen. Oh wait — Ideas to STOP him…hmmm…
I would deactivate Nate and send him a message. how the hell can you trot him onto the field In Denver? How can you play a safety with clear confidence issues against Peyton manning who is having a historic career start to the season in that high octane offense? if you think Wolff isn’t ready, fine…but Coleman can’t possibly be worth. heck, he might be delusional enough to play with confidence, something Nate obviously has no shot in doing on Sunday
Nate actually had a decent game Thursday. How about we stick to bashing him after he’s terrible. It will likely happen again soon enough, but to bench after last week is silly considering he was much better than in week 2.
No…he was TERRIBLE!!!! Just cause you make a few big plays doesn’t mean you didn’t have a terrible game. he has no confidence, is so afraid of retting beat deep that belays 20yards back on 3rd and 12, thus they continued throw underneath for first down overland over an doer knowing Nate was too far back to have good odds to get there in time and stop that screen to Avery…There hole game plan was centered around taking advantage of our weakling safety, so please don’t tell me that he had a good game…he had a decent game for Nate Allen and his drastically lowered standards…if you thought that was good safety play…the. I don’t even know what to say. Good for a horrible safety like Nate! bad for teams that expect good safety play
Again — let’s stand up and clap because he finally made 2 plays. Get the parade ready and block off the streets in case Allen makes 3 plays in 1 game…..
this week has felt like a bye week to me. it’s so deflating to go into a game you feel you have very little chance in winning. But this week really provides a great opportunity to Evaluate this defense…going into games you never really know exactly how motivated your players are for each game. The best motivator often can be the threat of embarrassment. We aren’t drastically better then last year but I do believe we added Charecter, toughness and leadership to our locker room. For Proud veterans like Jason Peters, Cary, Connar, Soap, these guys take being embarrassed serious. A guy like peters coming off his worst game as an eagle! you can bet he is feeling the pressure of going to Denver and having a better showing then he did with KC.
…
We no longer he these soft, aloof, quitters like DRC and NNamdi in our locker room. take for example the Chargers game where our defense struggled all game to get off the field. last years group would have rolled over for dead and quit by halftime…Even in a bad defensive showing we never saw a hint of quitting.. guys continued to fight no matter how much we struggled and that was very important to see. last year was so bad, we needed so much work that it was impossible to get it all done in one offseason. When you compound the issue by adding so many new starters and rookies who are seeing time, and the drastically switching schemes there is just no way possible that we weren’t going to see an up and down defensive year….but some very important changes that we needed to see are already evident even when we lose..and that’s an ice silver lining
…
But nerves will be high for this week of practice. Defenders will feel a to of pressure knowing that there is Mitch less room for error this week. 1 chink in he the armor and Peyton will completely shred you..and when the pressure is really on two things happen, it brings out a players best, or guys break and fold..if anything, this week is a opportunity to see how defenders react in a David vs. Goliath type of advantage….What better test is there to see how a promising young player like Boykin steps up to the challenge of guarding Welker. What better challenge and pressure will Cary and Fletcher face? We get to see what lessons Mykal has learned since facing Gates, against a great young athlete in Julian Thomas which will be a more even playing field since the young Julian won’t have all the crafty moves gates had so its a good challenge for Mykal to show his worth….our pass rushers have a ton of pressure just to give the back end a chance at not getting embarrassed against the Sherrif.
…
we probably won’t win, but there is alot to learn from a game like this…..Hopefully the coaches give us a chance and bench Nate for Coleman or Wolff if he is more up to speed with his assignments. this actually isn’t an impossible week to play Wolff. Denver’s offense is pretty straight forward, nothing too tricky or flashy…not too tough for Wolff to be sound in terms of assignments which has been the main issue for him..Denever dogsnt try to t rick yo, they don’t do anything exotic, just fundamental football with the Sherrif shredding you
GEagle – I sometimes think we all fixate on winning/losing too much. I agree completely with your opinions above, lets play to our ability and if we get beat then Denver is the better team. We don’t always lose to the better team, no shame in that.