Jimmy and Chip

That is either the title of a bad 1950’s sitcom or Jimmy Johnson talking about Chip Kelly. Peter King talked to old Helmet Hair about Kelly and got some really good quotes.

“Does Kelly remind you of you, 25 years ago?” I asked Johnson the other day.

“Well, in some ways,” Johnson said. “I really like what I have seen out of Chip Kelly. Chip called me and we visited a couple times, and what I heard from him, I liked. No one can say from the outside—right moves, wrong moves. You gotta let ’em play out. You won’t know until you see the results. I felt I was right when I did the things I did, but who knew? I traded away my starting quarterback, Steve Pelluer, to Kansas City. The leading receiver, I don’t remember his name [it was Ray Alexander] we got rid of. I talked to Danny White, and he retired. Then I traded Herschel Walker. You can’t be afraid to make moves. Chip’s not. So some of it is similar. But there is one big difference: We were the worst team in the league two years in a row [1988, 1989]. People were ready for a big change.

“The similarities? We’re both confident, both competent, both know how to win. We talked after he got the new responsibilities this year. I just said, ‘Go with people you believe in, and go with players who fit your personality and fit your system.’ I have talked to Bill Belichick about this too. Certain players are going to be successful in his system and not in others.”

And…

“Well, with Bradford, the biggest concern I have, and the thing that concerned me with some players that I got burned on, is the injury factor. I remember I traded for [former University of Miami running back] Alonzo Highsmith, because I had great memories, and I did it against my doctor’s recommendations, and he wasn’t the same. So that’s my biggest concern, the health. I love Bradford, but is he gonna be on the field? But if he plays, I like him. Foles, his accuracy was a question. Bradford’s better at that, and it’s not even a questions if he’s healthy. I think Chip looked at Foles as not his guy.”

I asked Johnson if he got a sense in his talks with Kelly that he was going to be active in remaking his roster this off-season.

“Oh yeah,” Johnson said. “The last conversation was over an hour, going over everything. He was loading his guns.”

As much as I hate Jimmy from the Cowboys days, I am glad Chip talked to him. Johnson did a phenomenal job at taking over a team and building them the way he wanted. He took a ton of criticism for many of his moves and had to fight a constant battle for a couple of years with the notion that he was in over his head.

Johnson’s ideas worked and helped shape the game of football in the 1990’s.

Kelly’s ideas have worked to a certain extent, but he has yet to get the team just the way he wants it. One of the problems with inheriting talent is that it can cause you to change your ideas. Had Kelly taken over a bad team, he’d have built it his way from Day One. He saw the talent the Eagles had and tried to build the group to “win now”. After a couple of solid years, Kelly decided solid isn’t good enough and decided to build the team the way he wants it. That meant anything was possible and just about every player was available.

This offseason has been pretty wild so far. And it sounds like Kelly has more moves to make.

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Welcome to the rumor section of the program.

Brandon Lee Gowton has a post up on the Cleveland Browns offering pick 19 for Sam Bradford. Apparently Adam Caplan confirmed this on Twitter.

This is true. #19 overall. RT @Rotoworld_FB: Report: CLE offered 1st rounder for Bradford http://t.co/RFB7T7whhW

— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) March 17, 2015

What we’re unclear on is whether the offer was made to the Rams or Eagles. Why would the Rams turn down such an offer? Jeff Fisher must believe Nick Foles can be the right guy for that team.

I know some people think Bradford is still trade material, but everything I’ve heard is that he’s here to stay. The Eagles would like to sign him to an extension, but that’s tricky. There isn’t much incentive for Bradford to do an extension right now. Play out the season and hit the market as a free agent next March. A good showing could make him a lot of money.

If he gets hurt or struggles, he can sign cheap for a year with someone and try again in March 2017.

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Sources with the Eagles say they are trying to trade Matt Barkley. If he is traded, I'm told there's an "80% chance" they'll sign Tim Tebow

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) March 17, 2015

This doesn’t make much sense. As Sheil Kapadia and Jeff McLane already pointed out on Twitter today, the roster limit is 90. If the Eagles want Tebow, they can sign him. Has nothing to do with Barkley…for now. They could be connected in September when there is a roster limit. For now, the Eagles could keep both if they wanted.

We’ll see what happens.

As for trading Barkley, it would be great to get anything for him. I’m guessing he gets released eventually. Barkley hasn’t panned out. I think teams know the Eagles will have to cut him so why trade anything, even a 7th round pick, for him?

All it takes is one team to either like him or to be desperate enough to take a chance. I doubt that happens, but I’ll certainly be hoping it does.

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Back to Bradford

Enough Tebow talk. Let’s get back to Sam Bradford.

Trying to assess just what kind of a player Bradford is…well that’s a difficult task. On the one hand, he was the #1 overall pick in 2010. You don’t go that high by accident. At the same time, Bradford has never been anything special in the NFL. He hasn’t been anything close to a Top 10 QB.

So what is he?

Just because you go #1 overall doesn’t mean you are an elite, franchise player. Let’s rate the last 10 QBs to go #1 overall. Forget NFL performance. We’re basing this on how they looked coming out of college. Here they are by year.

2012 – Andrew Luck
2011 – Cam Newton
2010 – Sam Bradford
2009 – Matt Stafford
2007 – JaMarcus Russell
2005 – Alex Smith
2004 – Eli Manning
2003 – Carson Palmer
2002 – David Carr
2001 – Michael Vick

Now let’s rank them.

1 – Andrew Luck
2 – Cam Newton
3 – Michael Vick

4 – Carson Palmer
5 – Eli Manning

6 – JaMarcus Russell
7 – Sam Bradford
8 – Matt Stafford

9 – Alex Smith
10- David Carr

I’ve broken the players down into groupings.

Bradford was a great player at OU, but he wasn’t on the same level as the guys ahead of him. Luck is as close to  a perfect QB prospect as you’re going to get. Newton put Auburn on his back and carried them to a national title. He dominated the SEC in a way I’ve never seen. Vick was the freakiest freak I’ve ever seen in college. These guys could carry a team on their own.

Bradford led a dynamic offense, but he needed the right pieces around him. He had a strong OL. He had a terrific run game. He had a trio of outstanding college WRs. He had a great TE. Bradford also had a system that took advantage of his skills and the players around him. In the right situation, he was a great player.

With the Rams, Bradford never had the right pieces around him. That limited how good he could be. Steve Young began his career in Tampa. Not many people remember that. Technically he began in the USFL, but his first NFL team was the Bucs. The bad Bucs. Young went 3-16 as a starter. He threw 11 TDs and 21 INTs. He completed 53 percent of his passes. Not good. Bill Walsh acquired him and Young became an elite player for SF.

I do not think Bradford is magically going to become an elite player. I would love for that to happen, but it is extremely unlikely. A more realistic goal, although still not with great odds, would be for Bradford to become a good NFL starter (performance + durability).

I do think Bradford’s best chance for NFL success is playing for the Eagles. He’ll have Chip Kelly’s scheme to help him. He’ll have a good OL. The Eagles will run the ball early and often. While one WR spot remains a mystery, Bradford will have Matthews, Huff, Cooper, Celek, Ertz and Sproles to throw the ball to. For a bit of perspective, Rams WRs last year had 9 TD catches…one more than Matthews in his rookie year. Bradford wasn’t the QB, but that should give you an idea of the talent around him.

Why Bradford over Foles? Bradford at his best is better than Foles at his best. Forget about the 2013 stats, we’re talking about actual performance. Foles doesn’t have the same kind of arm or accuracy. He doesn’t throw as well from the pocket or on the move. We do know Foles can thrive in this offense with the right guys around him. Kelly obviously thinks Bradford can do even better, but that is a projection. That’s the risk.

We talk a lot about durability in regard to Bradford and that’s a legitimate concern. But Foles has gotten hurt and missed at least one start in each of his 3 years. One of my concerns with committing to Foles long term was going to be his durability. Bradford has missed more time, but neither guy stays on the field enough. No matter who you went with, it was going to be critical to have a reliable backup.

Some of you are still stuck on what you think of this move…what I think of this move. I’m more interested in trying to understand the thinking. Chip Kelly spent a lot of time checking Bradford out and then made the decision to deal for him. We all have questions and/or doubts in regard to Bradford, but Kelly making this choice has to mean something…right? We’re talking about an offensive guru. This is the guy Jon Gruden went to go see to learn offense. This is the guy Urban Meyer went to go see to learn offense.

You and I can look at Bradford’s stats. We might have watched a game or two. But Chip freakin’ Kelly studied him at length and said “Let’s get him”. That doesn’t mean the move will work, but it should lessen your doubt/anger and make you wonder how Kelly came to this decision.

We can’t talk to Chip, but we are lucky enough to have a great piece from Fran Duffy. Here is a quick sample of some of what he found.

How does Sam Bradford fit in Philly? See what I found when I watched the film http://t.co/MpScfZF1PE pic.twitter.com/Wm2SjMyRJv

— Fran Duffy (@FDuffyNFL) March 17, 2015

That is an amazing throw.

Fran’s piece breaks down QB play and shows the key traits that Bradford displayed as QB for the Rams. He also shows some plays the Eagles run and how Bradford ran similar or the same plays successfully with the Rams.

You should come away from that piece thinking Bradford is a more talented QB than you realized, that he fits what the Eagles do and that we’re lucky to have Fran put things like this together for us.

Bradford isn’t going to come here and turn into Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers or whoever, but he can become a good starting QB. He can thrive in this offense. He can be an upgrade at the most important position on the team. There is risk with this move, but there is also more potential than some want to realize.

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