How Good?
Posted: May 23rd, 2016 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 118 Comments »Football predictions are tricky. Every football team in a given year is like a chemistry experiment. How will the ingredients react when mixed together and then put under different circumstances? The 2003 Eagles were good. Add in Jevon Kearse and Terrell Owens and the 2004 team became special. The 2010 Eagles were good. The team made a slew of changes in 2011 and that group went backwards.
Last year the Eagles went 7-9. That was part of the reason that Jeffrey Lurie made a coaching change, but usually a team has to hit rock bottom before that occurs. Ray Rhodes was fired after going 3-13. Andy Reid was fired after going 4-12. Chip Kelly got a shorter leash because Lurie wasn’t happy with how things were going off the field as well as on the field.
Doug Pederson didn’t inherit a disaster. He got an underachieving team with some odd parts. Howie Roseman got rid of the odd parts in the offseason and tried to fix the holes in the roster, but you just can’t fix everything at once. It takes time.
So what do we make of the Eagles heading into the 2016 season?
If you want to feel good about the team, think of it this way. Last year the Eagles went 7-9. Off that team, you lost DeMarco Murray, Mark Sanchez, Riley Cooper, Byron Maxwell, Miles Austin, Kiko Alonso. Heck, those almost feel like addition by subtraction moves. Walter Thurmond is probably retiring. He had a solid year, but wasn’t as good as the early hype made him out to be. DeMeco Ryans is also gone, maybe into retirement himself. His leadership will be missed and he did have a couple of good games, but it was time to let him go.
The Eagles upgraded the QB position. They improved the O-line. You can argue they upgraded the WR position, depending on what you think of Rueben Randle and Chris Givens. The defense should be much better, for a variety of reasons. First, the no-huddle offense is gone. That means no more leading the league in defensive snaps. The Eagles essentially played 2 extra games the past few years.
Pederson hit a major home run when he hired Jim Schwartz to come in and run his defense. Schwartz is a veteran coach who has had success at multiple stops and with multiple players. The other factor here is that Schwartz was given the freedom to run his defense. Bill Davis ran the defense that Chip Kelly wanted. It is likely that his ideas would have been similar, but Davis still had to deal with some restraints. Schwartz has carte blanche to run the D.
The front seven on defense will be very close to what it was last year. The team did upgrade at Safety when they signed Rodney McLeod. CB remains a mystery, but the Eagles have assembled a group of talented players to compete for jobs. Leodis McKelvin, Nolan Carroll and Eric Rowe all have starting experience. JaCorey Shepherd was highly thought of last summer before tearing an ACL. Rookie Jalen Mills could be a player to watch.
By getting rid of underachieving headaches, adding talented veterans and rookies, and bringing in a top flight defensive coordinator, it sure feels like the Eagles have improved on last year’s 7-9 squad. Does this team go 8-8? 9-7? Even better? Somehow worse than 7-9?
In order to figure out the 2016 Eagles, you have to think back to last year. That team went 7-9 and lost 3 games by a field goal or less. They were a few plays from going 10-6. I know the reverse is also true. They won some tight games and could have finished with a worse record.
The Eagles went 4-0 against Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Eli Manning (7 combined Super Bowl rings). At the same time, they got destroyed by rookie Jameis Winston and made Kirk Cousins look like Joe Montana. Twice. Ugh.
The 2015 Eagles are hard to figure out. They could look so good at times and so dreadfully bad at others. The team struggled to put together 60 minutes of good football. They were down 20-3 to the Falcons in the opener before rallying to take the lead. The Saints scored the first and last TDs of that game, but in between, the Eagles dominated them 39-3.
The Eagles could build a big lead, only to blow it. They could dig a big hole for themselves, only to claw out of it and take the lead. And then blow it, of course.
I think the pressure of preseason hype got to the team last year. Everyone was confident and happy in August. The teams started slowly in the regular season and the team never really recovered. They did get the record to 4-4 at midseason, but even then the team wasn’t playing with confidence. The 2015 Eagles found ways to lose. It shouldn’t be that hard to turn them into a winner.
The flip side of this is that there are reasons to worry. Pederson is a complete unknown. Can he fix Chip Kelly’s flaws? Maybe, but there sure as heck aren’t any guarantees.
While the QB position is better, Sam Bradford remains fragile. Just how good is Chase Daniel? He has to be better than Mark Sanchez. He has to. Right?
What happens if Ryan Mathews goes down in Week 1 or 2? The Eagles have talented runners, but other than Mathews, they all seem like role players. Maybe Kenjon Barner turns into the next Justin Forsett, but he could also be the next Tony Hunt (who am I kidding…Barner is worlds better than that already).
Will any of the young WRs step up? Jordan Matthews can’t do it all by himself.
I would talk about the O-line and injuries, but really all 32 teams are vulnerable to that.
The Eagles will be hurt if Jordan Hicks can’t stay on the field at MLB. He’s the smartest LB on the team and is a natural leader who runs the defense.
The secondary will be an issue if none of the players steps up to solidify CB. Schwartz loves to really get after the QB. He needs his Safeties to play the run. That means lots of man coverage for his corners.
You also have to factor in competition when thinking about this season. Dallas will have Tony Romo back at QB, although he’s likely to get hurt at some point in the year. They will have Ezekiel Elliott to feed the ball to so the run game should be better this year. Washington has to deal with the pressure of expectations. They didn’t beat a winning team last year so they weren’t exactly a juggernaut. The Giants might be even more of a mystery than the Eagles. They have a new coach and completely rebuilt defense. I still have concerns about that defense and their OL.
I think the Eagles can win the division. I know that’s setting the bar low, but there are just too many unknowns to get overly excited about this team right now. I do like the direction the team is headed in. Last year I had to try to understand Chip Kelly’s thinking. This year the moves are more obvious. You don’t have to try to understand why the team wanted Brandon Brooks or Rodney McLeod or Leodis McKelvin.
BGN has links to some NFL power rankings. The Eagles were generally between 22 and 30 in these rankings. That’s not optimistic, but is reasonable. Well, except for 30. The Eagles have the potential to field an outstanding defense, a solid offense and great STs. I don’t see how you predict that group as the 3rd worst in the league.
With the presence of Carson Wentz on the team it is easy to get caught up in thinking about the future. I’m excited to see what the Eagles do this year. I want a better W-L record than last year, but I’ll settle for a team that is less dysfunctional and more likable.
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[…] Tommy Lawlor Football predictions are tricky. Every football team in a given year is like a chemistry […]
I am disgusted w/ the number of national and local pundits who think this team is a 7 win team. Even Las Vegas thinks we are a 7 to 7.5 win team.
I agree with Tommy that we have improved on the O-line, in the defensive backfield and at WR. We all know Randle and Givens have to be better than Austin and Cooper. I am going to keep this as simple as possible. If the defense is a top 10 unit, the offensive is at least middle of the pact and special teams are above average then this team can win 9 games and compete for the division.
The real unknown is Coach Pederson. If he is competent and not over his head in this position then this team will surprise people. My goal is simple. Compete to win the division and a home game in the playoffs. I am hoping Bradford plays above average so we can trade him for a 2nd round pick after this season and begin the Wentz era in 2017. Am I really asking that much? Overall I am pleased with the direction of this franchise.
but can doug coach
Who knows. We had to take the same leap of faith with Andy Reid. Right now we have to hope that the coaches DP has both played under and coached under has given him enough experience to be competent from the outset and then hopefully grow into a good head coach.
Yeah but everything that you think will make us a winning team is pure conjecture. Top 10 defense? Maybe, though statistically unlikely. ~15-16 level offense? Maybe, but there’s no guarantees. Remember, if Ryan Mathews goes down, our running game may be totally fucked. We have one proven receiver, Jordan Matthews. And even he is a projection in this new offense. The o-line was mediocre at best last year. Do we really know that they’ll be better this year? QB… Yeah, Sammy may carry his 2nd half success over to this year… But statistically speaking, he’s just as likely to be a bust. Wentz… Who knows. WR’s… Who knows. This year is a total crapshoot just like it has been for the past few years.
Honest question…
Why wouldn’t the O-line be better? Peters was awful last year – I don’t expect him to be better, so I will call that a wash. At LG we have a ton of competition this year, so I think there is a good possibility Wiz or Seumalo can win that battle or at least push Barbre to be better. RG we got a clear upgrade in Brooks. Kelce should be improved with better guard play. And Lane will be Lane.
I think that is a pretty fair take and we can safely assume the O-line will be improved. The real question is, how much will it be improved?
what if Peters plays worse, or can’t stay on the field? That could be a disaster.
Last year he was AWFUL. How much worse can he realistically get?
My hope is that Wiz wins the LG job and then Seumalo gets some practice snaps at LT and plays some games there when Peters inevitably gets hurt.
There are several scenarios where the o-line plays worse. Bringing in free agents and rookies doesn’t magically make your team better. It gives you a shot at getting better. There are no guarantees in the NFL.
True but the opposite is more likely IMO.
Brooks is worlds better than whoever was playing his position last season.
I think we had four or five players fill in and none of them were what you would call even a solid player.
Brooks is better than solid, he’s a proven vet who can be a difference maker on the O-line.
I think our O line will be far better but only time will tell.
I wouldn’t say JP was awful last season, although it was probably his worst year as an Eagle.
I think it has more to do with losing Mathis and Toddfather but he was far from awful.
Now that we signed Brooks and others to solidify the G issues, I expect Peters and the O line as a whole to be much better this season.
You can’t underestimate how much the tempo affected his back issues and going back to a normal pace may be a god send to Peters in particular.
Lane could make a huge leap forward having Brooks next to him and Kelce should also benefit for not having to worry about anyone else but the player he has to block.
I think Kelce was trying to do his job and help others last season and it really hurt our O line.
The experts are dead wrong about this team, and I hope we can make them all look like the idiots the truly are.
I would not be surprised to see this team win ten games and win this division and then some.
Maybe not a Superbowl team yet, but we are far from being 30th out of 32 teams.
C’mon man.
Here is where I’d caution you on the o-line.
Peters showed all of the signs of a shot player last year. I don’t know how that decline reverses in a meaningful way in 2016.
Kelce looked worse in 2014 than he did in 2013. He looked worse in 2015 than he did in 2014. If he’s really that good and/or worth that salary, why are we blaming the guards for his decline?
Barbre still sucks. I understand why Peterson carried him over as the starter, but somebody else needs to win that job before I’ll be happy with that guard spot.
We don’t need to blame anyone for Kelce decline… Playërs have down years all the time, no need for an excuse to expect him to bounce back and have a good year…. But yea, guard play does effect a Center…no one would stress the importance of OL playing as a cohesive unit, if the players next to you have no effect on your play… Silly to pretend that OLineman shouldn’t be effected by tbeir linemates
We’ll see on Kelce. I see it as more likely we’re moving on from him than praising him at the end of the year.
You are disgusted than national pundits underrate the team by Vegas’ odds by 0.0 to 0.5 wins? I would think underrating them by 4, 5 wins would be more disgusting. Really, I think being any more than slightly discomfited by a 0.5 underrating is being a bit “emo”.
Not only is this pretty likely to happen based on his record, I don’t think people realize how thin they are at LB. Starters look acceptable, but after that? Combine it with a DL that won’t be 2-gapping and the inevitable Hicks injury could lead to Jenkins and McLeod putting up 2012 Saints tackling numbers.
Agree x 2. We had a chance to add more depth at LB, but oddly made frivolous reach picks like Countess instead of taking quality LB prospects like Feeney.
I hope we’re in the vet backup business once we get through another mini-camp or two so the coaches have a better sense of what’s up with some of the current “depth” guys.
LB depth is def my biggest concern for this upcoming season. One injury and we could be in trouble.
On one hand I can’t see 10 wins, but on the other, I can’t see 6 (unless Bradford goes down early and is out for the season). So yea, between 7-9 and 9-7 which, in the NFC East, means we compete for the division crown (I just don’t buy Romo staying healthy and Dallas is pathetic without him).
Even if Romo stays healthy he’s more than shown he can’t win big or important games
There is a very realistic scenario that the eagles field the best defense and st in the nfc east next year. So I always find it weird how low the eagles are in some peoples minds.
I strongly agree, but enjoy it…. Hopefully they allow us to fly under the radar all summer. I also don’t mind having a bunch of players having to hear how we are the worst team in the division all summer. The more they disrespect us the better
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How we stack up in the division:
We have the best Defense
We probably have the second best OL
We have the best pass rush
The best Special teams
The best defensive coordinator
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Yet people keep putting the 3 teams in the division ahead of us…. I THANK THEM for it
Where would you rank us at QB next year?
#2 qb, but has the worst group of receivers
Well, with all due respect, there is no known universe in which Bradford is better than Eli or Romo. I’d even put Cousins slightly ahead of him, he played solid last year. But we can debate about Cousins and who’s 3 or 4, there is no way we can debate about Eli or Romo imo.
Factor in the injury risk for romo
There are tons of question marks right now. The hope is we get more clarity and consistency as the off-season progresses and September comes around. The schedule appears to be pretty tough, our bye is early, our injury histories are extensive at key positions and we have a whole new coaching staff along with new systems being implemented. We have a lot of youngish talent that we need to improve and/or prove they can play at this level at all. How much the coaches get out of the young WR, CB, OL, LB and DL talent will be critical. I’m expecting 7 or 8 wins right now, but hopefully the team will gel quickly and prove me wrong.
I’ve always hated an early bye week but if things go south early on its nice that DP can take a week and try to fix it. After the bye we’ve got some tough games and really with the end of the year being mostly division games the last 12 are gonna be difficult
The first month for a team running a new scheme should be filled with Turbulance. September has almost become an extension of the PS… I hate the early bye week, but an early bye could be beneficial depending on our good or bad we look in a new scheme the first month of the season
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Ideally we would get the by Midseason, but whatever
“The hope is we get more clarity and consistency as the off-season progresses and September comes around.”
I think the only way this can happen is the bad scenario–everything goes to hell and we know we’re going to suck before the season even started. Last year, everything was going great, Jordan Matthews was the new Jerry Rice, Bradford was looking like Peyton, even negative me thought we were Superbowl contenders. The first game corrected that notion immediately.
Well, more clarity and consistency does not = certainty. Sure, we’re not going to know for certain until the regular season starts and the results come in.
But we should have a much better sense than we do now of how the team is picking up the new systems, how Pederson and the staff are coaching and handling personnel/preseason game scenarios, how the players are performing in their new positions, how the young talent is progressing, how our depth at many positions looks etc.
I think having a realistic outlook suggests the team will struggle at times due to all the changes, injury risks we are taking and lack of depth, but one would expect we also see some guys making strides during TC and preseason that give us hope moving forward.
Could it be a mirage like last year? Absolutely. Again, we’ve made wholesale changes in all kinds of areas – continuity is a very important component of success in the NFL. We’ve got to get back to that type of roster like we had under Reid in the good years. But we are not there yet and a lot has to break right to get there.
I can’t do more than 8-8 with this team right now.
The positives are that the D will be vastly improved. Billy Davis was a complete buffoon would couldn’t adjust his own necktie before an interview, let alone his CB coverage when leaving guys 1 on 1 vs. Megatron and Dez. 3-4 (thanks Chip) was an ill fit for this team and is a skid mark of a system to begin with. Schwartz fixes multiple issues. Don’t overthink it. Every time he takes over a D it improves. Our front 7 is screaming “4-3” and I think you’ll see career years out of Cox, Curry, Logan, and Graham. This D will keep the team in every game.
I think the O will be functional enough most weeks, but we have to expect missed games from Peters, Mathews, and Bradford. The o-line still worries me due to health / lack of talent in a few positions as currently constructed.
I know Fipp will coach up special teams, but will Pederson make the correct roster moves to help Fipp out? We already have several guys who can return the ball (Huff / Sproles), so why waste roster spots with dead end garbage like Barner? Hopefully Pederson gives Fipp some guys who can play.
It’s a rebuilding year(even though some fans don’t see that) and the Eagles will be competitive in some games. I tend to agree with the 8-8. I also think there’s that “unknown” of health on all teams. One team predicted to pound the Eagles could implode. Eagles could ‘play above their heads’ etc etc … that’s where 8-8 is a good place to start. Build momentum.
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Let’s pretend Hicks/Bradford/RB all stay healthy. Where’s the weak link? CB? LG? QB? That’s the part I can’t get passed. If we fast forward to when Wentz takes over 2017(2018?) … where do you see they will they need upgrades? (almost feel like if they all stay healthy – Eagles can do better than 8-8)
Looking at our schedule is interesting.
vs. Cleveland and @ Chicago should be 2-0 to start the year.
vs. Pittsburgh, @ Detroit, @ Washington, vs. Minnesota, @ Dallas could drop us to 3-4 with the only win being at Detroit.
@NYG, vs. Atlanta should be wins to get to 5-4.
@ Seattle, vs. Green Bay, and @ Cincy could drop us to 5-7.
vs. Washington to get to 6-7.
@ Baltimore to drop to 6-8
Back to back wins vs. NYG and vs. Dallas to get to 8-8
just a caution — the Giants lost several of their games in the last quarter. That’s why the spent a kings ransom to throw bodies in the defense. I’m not saying they’ll pan out. Also, Eli is no spring chicken. The Giants are just as much as an unknown as the Eagles….
I think the guys they spent money on D won’t upgrade their coverage and won’t help them enough vs. the run. The DT was a good signing for run downs, but Vernon is essentially a less productive pass rusher as Ayers who left.
That team is on the way down (further) and out.
Thinking we will be motivated to destroy the Lions after they embarressed us last year
plus jimmy schwartz playing the team that fired him.
One of the big question marks IMO is our pass defense, mostly LB and CB – look at the WR we’ll be trying to stop this season:
Bryant 2x
DJax 2x
Beckham 2x
AJ Green
Antonio Brown
Alshon Jeffrey
Julio Jones
Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson
Those are just the WR – obviously there are other pass threats at TE and RB that our opponents have to challenge us such as Witten, Bell, Reed, Graham, Eifert etc.
I’m not confident that Carroll/Rowe + Kendricks/Hicks/Bingham, even if they all stay healthy, can hang consistently with that level of talent. Obviously, the pass rush is important too, but we’ve had a decent pass rush the last few seasons and been absolutely scorched in the air. At some point, the CB and LB have to perform way better in coverage.
we have better cbs than we had the two years we went 10-6. Additionally we’ll have a much better pass rush.
and I always find it silly to look at the WRs and matchups. Its much more scheme and overall D. Im super excited to see what Schwartz does. Youre right, look at the records and defenses facing similar guys in prior years with Billy D. Amazing they had winning records
I’d be interested in knowing what that is based on. Plus many teams negated our pass rush with quick slants etc. and our LB/CB got roasted regularly.
Think Leodis is going to prove to be a very under rated signing for us.
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It’s reasonable to expect Rowe to be better than he was last year which showed some nice promise… Gorgeous INT vs the Jets… Showed a short memory and a willingness to fight out there when Calvin was torching him… Brady tried to pick on Rowe throwing at him 12 times, only converted 4 of 12 completions against the Rookie
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Last year was Nolans first year getting significant playing experience as an outside corner, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be a little more comfortable out there and we got some talented young corners competing behind those 3..
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Schwartz DOESNT believe in talking up playërs before he sees them in pads at camp, but he offered that he would break his rule when it comes to our safeties. He called signing McLeod and Jenkings “Money well spent, and that as the year unfolds he would be surprised if they weren’t one of the top Safety Tandems in the NFL”-schwartz
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I think Hicks will prove to be a Rock star for us,…. Hopefully we get 16 games out of him.
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We had a quality DL last year…. Now we brought back everyone but Thornton(not a pass rusher) and are switching to a scheme that is,better suited for almost all of the Players that made up our quality DL last year. That should pay big dividends for us
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It should also help that this new scheme is much simpler, allowing players to play fast. This should really make a difference for kids like MS2
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I enjoy flying under the radar this offseason, but I feel like there is a ton to be excited about when it comes to our 2016 defense
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We have less questions at DB and LB than every single team in our division.
Never liked the reasoning that because some other teams struggle or have ? at X or Y, we should be fine even though we also struggle or have ? at X or Y.
The Eagles pass defense has been absolutely horrible the last several years.
In 2015, in yards allowed per game, we ranked 29th. Giants ranked 32nd, ok, but Washington was 24th and Dallas 5th. In TD allowed per game, we ranked 31st. The Giants were 25th, Washington 24th and Dallas again 5th.
In 2014, in yards allowed per game, we ranked 30th. Dallas was 28th, Washington 22nd and the Giants 18th. In TD allowed per game, we ranked tied for 29th. Washington was 32nd, ok, but the Giants were 15th and Dallas 9th.
Carroll is a mediocre CB who we saw ourselves get burnt here in the past. McKelvin is also a mediocre CB and fringe starter. Rowe showed flashes last year as a rookie, but is still a ? as a full time starter. Brooks has 3 starts in 4 years. All the rest of the CB are unproven ? who are either rookies or second year unknowns. We have numbers, but quality? Not so much.
LB is similar although at least Kendricks and Bradham have some track record as starters. Kendricks is ok in pass coverage, not good or great. Bradham I have no idea. Hicks played very well last year until he got hurt, but with Ryans and Alonso gone our depth is non-existent and I do not see any of the backups having special pass coverage skills.
D line pressure will mask a lot of questions in coverage.
Generally agree, but again many teams negated our pass rush by running quick slants and other routes that killed us. Our pass defense has been awful and needs to be much better. If we are among the worst in the league again, it is going to be a long season.
We own the Stillers every time, and they are not that great.
From your lips to God’s ears. I hate that team and hate their fan base even more.
So you are predicting that we sweep the NFC East this year yet loose pretty much every other game on the schedule? I find that interesting…
In any event, there’s not much football to talk about right now other than this spitballing, so at least it starts conversations.
In any event, there’s not much football to talk about right now other than this spitballing, so at least it starts conversations.
Oh I wasn’t trying to be snarky. I mean, his projection is entirely reasonable. But that just says a whole lot about the quality of the nfc East.
4-2 in division. 4-6 vs. other folks.
Split Washington and Dallas, beat Giants twice.
This year’s losses against Washington were especially frustrating.
I agree. I just can’t see us doing much more than splitting with them. Losing to them twice wouldn’t shock me.
I can see beating Pittsburgh but losing to Atlanta and maybe Giants away also so Im at 4-8 there. They will win a few they arent supposed to but alsu usually lose some we think are a given, still thinking 7-9 or 6-10
It could slide that low, but I’d only see that if Bradford gets body bagged early.
the theme of the article seems to be about how we’re to look at 2016. If so, “The Eagles upgraded the QB position.” — how is that possible? It’s the same starter. Back ups? Doesn’t matter if Chase > Sanchez or Sanchez > Chase…they both stink.
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If the thinking is, with a different tempo offense, Bradford should be better, I can get on board with that kind of thinking. Or if the WR’s will chip in a little better than last year — Bradfords #’s should improve. I still don’t see how the Eagles upgraded the QB position for 2016? It’s the same QB….
Sam having an offseason to prepare compared to having a month to prepare last year should lead to improved QB play… A better OL should also help
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I don’t even see how our Wr being upgraded can be debateable.. Im no Randle/Givens fan, but I’d take them all day over coop/Austin…
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Im pretty haooy with where the roster is right now compared to last year. My real concern is how well we can transition to Pedersons scheme. Typically year 1 of a scheme chamge scares me.
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Wasnt it always safe to assume that Bradford would be better in year two, than he was coming off two years of sitting on the sideline with the knee injuries?
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Slowing it down, giving SAM audible control at the Line of scrimage to change into better plays should also make a difference.
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Unless injuries cripple us, I would expect us to be in the hunt for the division come December. Thinking we are good enough to consider anything less than a division crown a failure..I don’t care much about our record, I just want to win enough games to allow our kids a taste of some playoff experience..
That’s a key point — you can look at this roster and say “ok, let’s get started” … certainly a good feeling. Last spring we spent a lot of time saying ‘wtf is CK doing’ …
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HC is a bigger question mark to me than the roster. HR did a fine job(it’s spring) with the roster. Biggest question of all is how Pederson handles a HC position.
All the skill positions on offense are a question mark to me. WR is especially weak. RB isn’t much better. The LT is getting old and isn’t the same player he was a few years ago. The right side of the line has a question mark at guard and a guy who should be an “elite” RT, but hasn’t been able to show that yet.
Plus, the head coach’s primary job has been to carry a clipboard for the past decade or two and is completely unproven.
How’s that?
How is RG a question mark? Brooks is legit
sorry – LG. I got mired in all my negativity this morning. I agree about Brooks – he’s definitely a big upgrade.
Haha, no biggie.
Yeah, LG is a question mark, but I def have some optimism there. Competition usually brings out the best in players and we have (2) guys competing w/ Barbre this year instead of ridiculously handing him the starting gig again like last yr.
Agreed WR is weak — the early thinking is, there is some upside with Aggie in year 2 and hoping JM takes the next step. After that…all question marks…
Fortunately we are talking about a new HC with DECADES of NFL experience, who was smart enough to sorround himself with a really experienced coaching staff,,, Pederson is smart enough to leave Schwartz and Fipp alone to run the defense and ST however they seem fit.
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In terms of just focusing on the Offense, it’s probably not the Biggest transition in the world going from his offensive coordinator duties to his head coaching duties. It sounds like we are fortunate that Reid really cared about developing Pederson as a coach, giving Pederson Experience putting in the game plans and calling plays preparing for him to eventually become a HC… Probably easier transition from former QB to play caller, than from Former offensive lineman to play caller (like Andy)
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It should also help that Pederson doesmt have much of an ego according to schwartz and some of the players. pederson only cares about proving he can win games as a pro HC, where as Chip wanted to prove that he could reinvent the wheel. Doesn’t seem like winning was enough for chip. His ego required that he would not only win, but do so showing that he is smarter than everyone, and that he could do it so different than how it’s always been done… Where as Pederson doesn’t seem to have that ego. Winning games will be enough for Pederson
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I also think that for a team that has to go thru a scheme change on Both sides of the ball, we are fortunate to be in a rare position where our New Scheme for a nice amount of players fits even better than what the previous regime had them running.
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bradford, KELCE, Peters all have Experience playing in a west coast offense
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What I like about Rueban Randle is that he is transitioning from McAdoos west coast offense the last two years. He should have the easiest transition of all our WR’s, although he is having Gaul bladder surgery today
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Reicht has experience with Ryan Mathews
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Pedersons offense is great for our TEs and throwing to a RB like Sproles
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Defense:
Cox, Barwin, Bg, Curry, MS2 all benefit from the scheme Change
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Schwartz knows Bradham, Leodis and Brooks
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mcLeod has experience playing Safety behind a wide 9 which is HUGE
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It’s rare that a scheme change actually fits better for so many exsisting players which is direct result of chips ego demanding specific schemes even tho it wasn’t what’s best for many of our talented players… So much for tailoring scheme around our players, that was a crock of shit
But . . .
Bradford’s in a new system — one of his patented excuses for sub-average performance.
Sure, he played in a variant of the WCO his rookie year nearly a decade ago. Woo-Hoo!
Upgrades because who will be calling the plays won’t be restricting the qb at the los.
The opposing defenses won’t line-up knowing where/when/why/how the offense is calling every single play.
And audible calling Bradford is not the Chip-robotic qb we had last season
That is a major improvement.
This feels like a term where the Herm Edwards adage applies “The difference between 10-6 and 6-10 is about a dozen plays”.
I’ve been wrong about this team every year since the “Dream Team” so take this with a pound or two of salt. If you fire your coach and draft a QB with the #2 pick in the draft, history says you aren’t going to be very good the next season. So I’ll go with that.
Also, not sure how anybody can think Chase Daniel is an upgrade over Sanchez. I am no fan of the Sanchize, but the guy is 4-2 in the playoffs with a 94 QBR in those games. Daniel has 2 career starts and has 1 more TD in his career than I have.
For all the good work Howie did this offseason, that contract may go down as one of the dumbest of all time. But hopefully I’ll be wrong about that too.
Yeah, but Sanchez is just the worst, the worst.
Daniel is an extra QB coach, that might, hopefully not, have to ever play a snap.. hes doug p’s security blanket.. expensive, but secure..
Sanchez, as you said, had a stretch of excellent play on the biggest stage and has started in this league. I agree with you that saying Chase is an upgrade is pure optimism. Nor do I think Sanchez lost those two Chip-killing games last year by himself.
I cant wait to watch Denver implode this year. Id put money they dont make the playoffs. Maybe I should bet the unders on their season.
those trade talks reminded me of the RS and Cole Hamels. Here we will give you a bucket of balls for Hamels, but hey we will pay his (really cheap) contract. Screw you, finish in last place. Denver same way.
This team also isn’t a typical team picking #2 overall. They were slated at 13, before the trades to get up. Big difference.
Not saying they will be feat, but as Tommy said, I don’t think they are Top 5 bad.
That’s a fair point and I did think of that. Washington would fit this profile as a team that traded up to that spot and took a QB at #2 overall. They made the playoffs the following year. It wasn’t Shanahan’s first year though, so that’s different. Not sure if there are any other examples of teams trading up from the middle of the 1st round to pick that high – if there are I can’t think of them.
I still think if the O/U is 7-7.5 wins, the Eagles are much more likely to underperform by 3 wins (i.e., win 4) than they are to overperform by 3 (.i.e., win 10 or 11). But as I said, I haven’t been right yet, so there’s that!
I’d say the 10 or 11 is more likely. I mean, 4 wins….that’s turrible. The Eagles are not turrible.
The biggest difference will be going from Bill Davis – who’s defenses have always been the worse in the league, to Jim Schwartz – who’s defenses have always been successful.
I am so glad to get rid of that guy and some of the other names Tommy pointed out.
yup, my excitement is about equal for the new QB and the D coord.
And a handcuffed Bill Davis, no less.
Chip put a mediocre guy in a terrible position to succeed, which kind of sums up his entire tenure.
My favorite post of the day.
That’s a pretty profound summation. Well done, CMCTD.
A completely healthy OL, two elite skill players and a brand new offense can cover a lot of holes.
Consequently, not too many people linning up to become his defensive coordinator in San Fran.
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All I ask is that Chip keeps his job long enough to see his San Fran Offense against Schwartz Eagles defense… Hopefully we get San Fran on the schedule next year
Predictions at this time of year are never safe. I do think its safe to say the Eagles have a solid team. I think their defense has the chance to be outstanding. If I had pick an exact number right now and my life depended on it I would got with 8-8.
That being said, if the defense is 75% as good as I think they can this team could win it all.
If I had to predict the division right now I would probably rank its 1)Skins, 2) Birds 3) Giants 4) Boyz. The only teams that in my mind have the ability to win the Superbowl from the East would be the Eagles and the Giants. I only put the Giants there because recent history suggest that they at least have some chance at it.
I know, as Eagles fans, we need to hate the Cowboys, but having them 4th in the division I think is off-base.
Personnel-wise, they have the best offense in the division with Romo, Bryant, Witten, the OL, Elliott/Morris/McFadden and some other decent WR. If they all stay healthy, which I agree may be a stretch, I’d see only the Skins being even close to their level.
ST-wise, the Eagles and Cowboys finished almost in a dead heat according to ST DVOA (Football Outsiders) at 1.9% and 1.8% and close in their weighted DVOA of 3.6% (6th) vs 4.0% for the Cowboys (5th). The season before last the Eagles were #1 and the Cowboys #13 so we fell off and they improved.
Defensively, I give the Eagles the edge, but both units have question marks in pass defense and rush. Dallas also has questions about run defense whereas I think the Eagles will be fine there.
I think unfortunately that Dallas and Wash battle for the division title with the Eagles and Giants eventually falling behind those two.
I think the two big things we differ on are 1) I think there is a significantly greater than 50% chance Romo misses 4+ games, and 2) I think our pass rush is going to be one of the best in the league.
I’ll be surprised if Romo plays more than 8 games. He seems to have reached the point where he doesn’t even have to be hit hard to get hurt. Looks like he reached that VICK level where he can support opponents body weight and guys just landing on top of him is enough to crack his rib or collar bone.
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If Romo plays 13-14 games, then I think Giants will finish last in the division but if Romo only plays 8-12 games, i would think they will finish last
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I know that Zeke and a good OL can protect Romo.. Problem is their defense is weak, which could force Romo into shootouts that expose Romo more than they would like… Pass rush is one of the last areas you want to be weak at
I think your scenario on Romo is reasonable except for the “significantly greater” part. I’d say it is right around 50% chance he misses 4+ games. If they get back to run first like they did in 2014 and their OL stays dominant like it has been, I can also see Romo playing almost the whole season (I think it is 75% or more that he misses at least 1-2 games). They can protect him and their D by running the ball effectively and, with Elliott, McFadden and Morris, they have the options to do it IMO.
On the Eagles pass rush being one of the best in the league, I do not see it. You’ll have to explain that further for me to understand your evidence and reasoning.
I see Cox doing his thing and Logan chipping in, but Curry has never started as a DE at this level and Graham & Barwin are transitioning back to DE from OLB. Kendricks has some rush skills, but it is unclear how Schwartz will utilize him yet. Hart, Allen et al. are not anything special from what I’ve seen.
I just do not see the dominant rushers outside of Cox on this team nor do I see 4-5 guys who would be able to post ~10 sacks to mitigate having more than 1 stud who will likely be focused on heavily.
The recognized top pass rush teams last season were some order of Denver, NE, KC, Cincy, St Louis, Houston and Carolina – on all those teams there were several elite producers. I do not see the Eagles at that level yet.
I view Curry as the best pure pass rusher on the team. I think he should easily achieve the number of sacks he did in a part time role before being screwed with last season. I think between Curry, Cox, Barin, Graham, and Logan there will be 35+ sacks. I think the rest of the D chips in for something 15, putting us right at 50.
I will actually be disappointed with anything less than 45 sacks from this team next season. A lot of that depends on teams being in a forced throwing position. Am I foolish to expect marked improvement (15ish sacks) with the scheme changes? I don’t think so. If there was one thing we did well when we were in the wide 9 before, it was sack the QB. I expect that to be a given now.
I like Curry as a pass rusher too, but to expect him to not be impacted at all in starting at DE at this level for the first time and being able to handle the higher number of snaps I think is unrealistic. One reason why he may have been such a good rusher in past seasons is he was rested and used in high leverage pass situations. Is he going to play the run and hold the edge well enough? Not sure.
Barwin, besides Cox, is the one I’d have the most confidence in and has the consistent production. Graham is 3rd on the DE depth chart right now so we’ll see how much he can improve production.
I could see 35-40, but not 50. We had 37 last year and our defense was pretty bad. I guess until I see how several of these players adjust to their new positions, I do not see it.
I tend to think more snaps will equate more production. He would be inhuman to remain as efficient as he has been in a limited role. I think the overall outcome is most likely to equal more sacks.
I think we are going to be really happy with Vinny this year in general.
Interesting to me you sont expect improved sack numbers despite the scheme. If we stayed in the same scheme I would feel good about 40 sacks.
I like being underrated (insert dream team visual here). The main concern I have is the lack of playmakers on the offense. No one scares a defense. That can be schemed however. Weak division, any team can win though.
Just going by memory, when most “experts” us, we lose embarrassingly or barely claw out a W. When we’re universally panned as a lesser team (ahemPatscough) we come out swinging. So, scientifically speaking, we will definitely finish in the top third of the league based on preseason rankings.
There was a point, not too long ago, that the Eagles were one of the most overrated teams in the league, in the sense they underperformed their predictions. Us as an underdog is a pretty new thing.
Agreed, much prefer lowered expectations. Why? No idea, but it has always seemed to work out better for us.
I think Ertz is a pretty scary threat for defenses. Hope that he really evolves into the Kelce type. JM is a guy that if he could become consistent would be a very opposing threat. He seems to have the ability to just take games over. He has to grow into that threat every game in order for this offense to take a step forward.
think our most under rated weapon this year could be Sproles.
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The west coast offense used RBs like Jamaal Charles and Brian westbrook to Terrorize defenses as pass catching weapons… Sproles in a Jamal Charles role could be BIGTIME weapon for us,,,
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Very Dissapointed with how poorly chip used Sproles in the passing game.. Sproles should be one of the offensive players most excited about the coaching change
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Impressive to see how well Ryan Mathews played last year behind an OL that was a disaster, facing Defenses that had caught up to what we were doing…I very much look forward to seeing what Ryan Mathews looks like this year running behind Brooks, Lane and Celek. Shame he can’t stay healthy for 16 games. Hopefully he is finally ready to stop fumbling
Ertz is our best shot at having a player teams need to game plan around. JM is a solid target, but is not explosive enough to scare the top DBs in this league. He will never be more than a solid #3 or maybe #2 option for a good passing attack. agholor is a total question mark. His development will be the key for this offense.
If JM can produce like he did last year (where we all agree he under performed), as a #3 option that would probably put us somewhere in the running for the best offense of all time. I’ll take it. More than likely I think he will have to clean up his performance and improve those numbers. Depending on how Ags developes he could very well then become the 3 option, but I look at him more as the 1.
If the season does not go well (I think we’ll be 9-7 or 10-6 and in the mix for NFCE), then I hope DougP sits the vets that are on the way out or don’t need to be risking injury and get these young guys on the field. That way we will know internally what we have as well as showcasing some young gunners to try and get a couple draft picks back.
When teams are good against better teams and dreadful against opponents they should beat, I’m inclined to look at coaching as a convenient reason. I know it’s simplistic, but it’s a difficult conclusion to not draw, especially when “everybody” plays like crap. If this is a redemptive season for our D, and IF DP can get his offense to stop with the mental errors, 10 wins sounds reasonable to me. But the latter is a big ‘if”, and without it, 5-11 is not impossible either.
I think you are exactly right. It shows that when the level of motivation is upped, so are the results. It is the onus of the coaching staff to ensure that the level of play is consistent against every opponent. Has anyone ever heard of the Patriots losing a “trap” game? Not so easy for the rest of the league. Pretty clear Chip didn’t really have a good grip on his guys last season.
Sounded like Beating the Patriots was very important to Jeffrey Lurie, with his Locker room speech about Not Losing to “THIS TEAM”(The Patriots)
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While it was a small moral victory in a mess of a season for us, that Loss to the Eagles could have cost the Patriots the Super Bowl… Werent the Pats just 1 win short of Homefield advantage throughout the playoffs? the Pats OL would have had a much better chance of dealing with the Broncos pass rush playing at home. it Can’t be easy for an OL on the road that can’t hear because of all the crazy Crowd noise trying to hold up against VON Miller and a ferocious pass rush
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Ronald Leary seeking a trade? Worth considering? Last year of his deal w/ no guaranteed $. Can’t imagine us getting a trade done w/ the cowboys though.
nah, Id pass…
according to DP Barbre has locked up the LG spot, no?
That’s what he said,,. Not sure I really believe that Barbe has looked so good with no pads on that he will prove to Clearly be our best option… Our 3rd round pick ISNT even practicing with the team yet..
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Find it hard to believe that Wisnewski would sigń with us if Doug wasn’t at least going to allow him to compete for a starting spot.
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There is probably a solid chance that Barbie wins that starting spot, but im not sure I believe that it’s etched in stone and that there is nothing Wisnewski, Seumalo, Gardner, Bunche can do to win that spot
that’s offensive
We are pretty fortunate that for a team that is changing schemes, our new scheme will fit many of our players better than the previous coaches scheme, since Clearly chip wasn’t very interested in tailoring scheme around his players talents.
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We had a quality DL last year, and we are now switching to a scheme that fits most of our DL even better. Says a lot about how stubborn chip was that we are now switching to a scheme better suited for Cox, BG, Curry, Barwin, MS2. They looked pretty good playing in a 3-4, excited to see how much better they can be now that Schwartz has the freedom to put them in the best position to succeed
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It doesn’t get mentioned much, but McLeod having some experience playing Safety behind a Wide 9 is huge for us.. See Nate Allen’s first year playing in a wide 9 lol
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I love that Rueban Randle is coming from playing in McAdoos west coast offense the past two years, he should have the easiest transition of all our WRs.
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Reicht has experience coaching Ryan Mathews
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bradford, Kelce, Peters, offensive players at Key positions all have experience in a west coast offense.
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The scheme change should be great for Ertz and the TE’s
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pederson brings an offense that used Jamaal Charles masterfully in the passing game. Sproles should benefit greatly from the scheme that made CHarles such a dangerous pass catching weapon
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Thinking Leodis McKelvin will prove to be this years “Walter Thurmond”, the steal of this offseason.. Great that Schwartz has Experience with Leodis, Brooks and Bradham
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Retaining coach Fipp was BIGTIME for us. We had an elite ST, and it seems like we kept our best ST players, while also adding kids who can help improve what was a Beastly ST unit, in Brooks, Joe Walker
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Significantly upgraded depth at Interior OL and CB which was a big need for us
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Typically, when a coach is fired, a new coach comes in with new schemes that require a big roster turnover. We are pretty fortunate that the scheme changes our new coaches are implementing fit so many of our exsisting players better than the roles chip had them in which is a pretty big indictment of how stubborn chip was, how married he was to a certain scheme even if there were better ways to use some really talanted playërs like Vinny Curry.
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You can’t ask for an easier transition to new schemes than this… We,are extremely fortunate in this regard. In Many ways, we upgraded this roster significantly without even changing the personnel, and it rarely works that way,,, we are lucky
If only Lurie skipped Kelly and went straight from Reid to Pederson.
A few weeks ago I heard that Kendricks was looking Noticably bigger this year, especially his lower body..
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McLane is reporting that Kendricks is up to 250lbs from 235lbs, but that Kendricks isn’t sure yet if that will be his playing weight, experimenting with exactly how much bulk his body can carry without losing the speed he needs to play WIL
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Tho Schwartz said that he isn’t sure yet if he will use a WIL and SAM or just use them as a Right side LB and a Left side LB since both Bradham and KEndricks are capable of doing what is required from both a Strongside and weakside backers
Nice.
Although I still worry we lack anybody tall enough to cover TEs properly.
Can Mostert play LB?
I’m sure he would make a better LBer than Barner.
Sorry but feel like Tommy is still fooled by Chip Kelly and the statistical anomalies of the team. Defense did a hell of a job for a while, but, wore down from too many snaps. The offense put up points but made a lot of long games out of short ones.
And that’s why the NFC East is the best division.