Hot Topics – Week 2
Posted: September 20th, 2016 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 248 Comments »I get a lot of questions during and just after games. I can’t answer all of them as they come in so let me address the hottest topics of interest.
Jason Kelce – Once a fan favorite, Kelce has become a target for serious criticism. Some of it is very deserved. Kelce struggled in the 1st half of the Bears game and didn’t play well in the season opener. I did think he improved quite a bit in the 2nd half against the Bears. Things were so troublesome in the 1st half that some people were asking me if Kelce could be replaced at halftime. Wiz was active and could have taken over for him.
You don’t make a move like that with Kelce. He has started for this team since 2011 and is still a team leader. You only bench a guy like that in a game if he is so bad that the offense is struggling because of him. The Eagles were up 9-7 and had gained 159 yards. Kelce was struggling, but he still had value. C is unlike other OL positions. The C has to make calls and adjustments. He needs to communicate well with the QB. Kelce does a good job in these areas and you don’t replace that guy casually.
Now let’s talk about Kelce moving forward. If he continues to struggle and play up and down, it is possible the coaches will consider benching him at some point. I doubt that happens this year, though.
As for long term…
A lot of scouts I spoke to felt Isaac Seumalo projected better at center than guard in NFL. https://t.co/be2wPyGXiV
— Geoff Mosher (@GeoffMosherNFL) September 20, 2016
This could easily be Kelce’s final season in Philly. Doug Pederson was in KC last year and they went with a rookie at C. He’s not afraid to make a change at that spot and go with a young guy. The Eagles love Seumalo and one of his big strengths is his football IQ. That’s critical for playing C.
The Eagles also signed Aaron Neary to the practice squad a few weeks back. He could be someone to keep an eye on in the future. I wrote about him a bit here.
This isn’t a case of the Eagles looking to get rid of Kelce. If he picks up his level of play, he’ll be just fine. But he also had some issues last year so this isn’t a minor concern over a few bad plays. I do want to make sure you keep things in context. He did have some good blocks in the game on Monday night and I thought he was much better in the 2nd half.
If you want to see a C who was really awful, go watch Dallas Reynolds in the ARZ game from 2012. That’s the benchmark that I know of for bad games from an Eagles C.
Going for it on 4th down – I like Doug Pederson being aggressive. I did think he was dumb to go for the TD vs the Bears. The Eagles were up 22-7 and at the goal line. That is a 15-point lead. Kicking the FG gives you a 3-possession lead. In the 4th quarter, you don’t think about points. You think about possessions. The smart move would have been to kick the FG and go up 25-7. If you fail, which the Eagles kinda almost did, you leave the other team with hope and time to catch up. Down 18, the clock becomes a huge factor and helps you win.
All that said, I do like Pederson rolling the dice. This isn’t a great team. Don’t be afraid to take some chances. It shows confidence in the offense and the defense. It also builds attitude and character in the team. That can be very valuable down the road as well as this year.
Optimism – How should we feel about this team?
@lawlornfl Yes this is fun, but we played the Browns and a sub-par Bears. Should we be excited for the now, or for the future?
— EaglesFanCast (@EaglesFanCast) September 20, 2016
The Eagles have played 2 bad teams. They beat 2 bad teams. Don’t apologize for that. Remember, the Eagles have a rookie QB and head coach. Learning on the job in the NFL can be treacherous.
The Eagles opened the 2012 season against the Browns and rookie QB Brandon Weeden. Remember that game? Weeden was dreadful, throwing 4 picks. Michael Vick was just as bad, throwing 4 picks of his own. The Eagles won that game with a late TD, 17-16. Compare that with last week. The Eagles won 29-10. They beat a veteran QB. The Eagles rookie didn’t throw picks and the Eagles controlled the LOS.
This team is playing well. Not great, to be sure. There are plenty of mistakes that must be corrected. But think big picture. The Eagles aren’t giving up TDs (just 2 on defense in 2 weeks). The Eagles are coming up with takeaways. They aren’t turning the ball over. They score early in games and just before halftime. These are the traits of a winning team.
I think you should be excited now and for the future.
Darren Sproles – We love Sproles as a returner. He has been less impressive as a runner/receiver in the last couple of years. It looks like age is starting to catch up with him a bit. We’ve seen him drop passes. He doesn’t have the burst to get around defenders on a consistent basis. Pederson used him a lot on Monday night. We found out on Tuesday that part of that was due to wanting to take it easy on Ryan Mathews and his ankle.
The coaches still love Sproles so don’t expect him to disappear anytime soon. He could be a weapon on screen passes, but the screen game hasn’t clicked so far. Something tells me it will in time.
Some of you weren’t so keen on running Sproles at the goal line. Isn’t he too small? That’s the idea. Defenders won’t get to him and he’ll find a crevice to push through into the end zone, which he almost did. And Sproles is thick/strong. He’s not purely a space player. Mathews is a better goal line back, but I don’t think using Sproles down there at times is a bad move. You want the RB top stay low and really hit the hole. Sproles can do both. He just didn’t have much of a hole to work with.
Plays run / TOP – The Eagles lead the NFL in time of possession this year. That is crazy and ironic. And not a huge deal. I completely agree with Chip Kelly that TOP is an overrated stat. Here’s where things get interesting. The Eagles are 4th in the league in plays run, with 141. They are tied for that spot. One of the teams with them is…Kelly’s Niners. SF has about 10 fewer minutes of TOP.
The Eagles defense has faced the fewest plays in the league. SF’s defense is 24th. I don’t think the big deal there is players wearing down physically. Kelly’s Sports Science program worked wonders with some players, especially veterans. I do think the mental and emotional pressure of having to play a lot of snaps starts to wear on a defense. Defenders have the mantra of “Get off the field”. They want to hold someone to a 3 & out so they can go sit, make adjustments and get ready for the next series. Constantly going right back out there has to wear on them mentally.
Kelly wants to run as many plays as possible and does so by running a no-huddle, up-tempo attack. The Eagles want to run plays, but focus on execution, situational packages and matchups to help them sustain drives.
It will be really wild if the Eagles run more offensive plays than the Niners and face fewer plays on defense.
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[…] Tommy Lawlor I get a lot of questions during and just after games. I can’t answer all of them as they come […]
In the Pederson mic’d up video I noticed Seumalo standing near Pederson and Reich, which may be coincidence, or may be related to the football IQ you mentioned.
I agree that Kelce is probably going to be the starter for the rest of this season, but I think it’s his last. We need a bigger body.
Tommy, what about Josh Andrews? Do you think the Eagles see him as a center or guard?
I’m sorry, but I completely disagree with you about TOP being overrated, and I think the stats you just pointed out sort of prove it. Having more TOP means you get the opportunity to run more plays, whether you run them rapidly like CK does or at a normal pace like Pederson. The problem is, when you focus solely on plays run rather than TOP, you also give the other team an opportunity to run more plays. The benefit of running more plays in a game is nullified if you also let the other team run more plays. And that’s what CKs offense did. Who cares if you are the team that over a season runs the most plays if it also translates to the team that faced the most plays? What exactly do you benefit other than having your players expend additional energy.
Here is another way to think about it. CKs offense, due to its pace, will end up having shorter drives (based on time). But after each drive, the other team gets a drive of their own. So regardless of the pace of the other teams offense, both teams end up with 1 drive, CKs team on average will have shorter lengths of time holding onto the ball, but both teams will end up with the same number of opportunities to score. Extrapolate that over the course of a game, outside of clock management at the end if halves, you will have the same number of drives as the number of drives you face.
Go look at the drives on offense and defense from Chip Kelly’s time here, and you see that is the case:
2013 – 195 offensive drives vs 190 defensive drives
2014 – 201 offensive drives vs 202 defensive drives
2015 – 196 offensive drives vs 194 defensive drives.
Those numbers are all above the average for the rest of the league, but against any given opponent, you are not gaining anything in terms of additional scoring opportunities relative to you opponent by going fast paced.
Now, with TOP, that’s also true. Regardless if how long you have the ball, ignoring clock management at end of halves again, both teams will end up with the same number of drives. However, the difference ends up being that in the long run, you will face much fewer plays.
Where are you going with that? Chip didn’t go fast because he thought it got him more drives than the other team. Everyone knows that the ball changes hands after each score, so you will have about the same number of offensive and defensive drives, regardless of how fast you run plays. That’s not the point.
Also, he never cared if, over the course of a season, his team ran the most plays in the league. That’s also not the point.
Chip’s point was simply that the number of plays run (compared to the other team) was a better indicator of how an offense was functioning than TOP. So if he only had 25% of the TOP, but ran twice as many plays as the other team (and probably got twice as many yards or more), that was a good result. Conversely, if his offense was less effective than the other team’s, and he ran fewer plays, he wouldn’t care if he won the TOP stat. I don’t really see how you can argue with that.
Why bother to run plays quickly then? The rationale was 1 – the plays would be more effective because the other team would get tired more quickly than your team (they didn’t train for the high pace), 2 – the plays would be more effective because the defense would be less organised than your offense, and 3 – statistically, if you are the better team, running more plays reduces the chances of an upset in any particular game (the better performing offense is more likely to win).
The problem was that ultimately, his offense wasn’t more effective. So he wasn’t running more plays than the other team. So he got fired.
I love your truncated ending there. To me mindset and focus of attention are relevant. Kelly’s persistent emphasis on quantity and speed seemed to overshadow and hurt consistent execution. This is not a provable point, but the number of turnovers and missed assignments would convince a less dogmatic dog to try barking up a different tree.
I agree completely. Chip’s offense could be (and sometimes was) great if executed quickly, executed well, using enough plays to keep the defense off-balance. Unfortunately, it’s tough to do all of those things, all at once. Chip clearly didn’t want to compromise on the ‘quickly’ part, but on its own, running plays quickly doesn’t compensate for running them badly.
FiveThirtyEight did a study showing that the Eagles pace plays _worked_. That is, they were more effective than normal plays. The advantage, however, declined significantly over his tenure.
The league did catch on, but he also jettisoned his best players and continually simplified his offense.
Getting lots of plays in and of itself doesn’t seem to work in the NFL. If you are better than the other team, that is more efficient, then it’s a great idea. If you have a crappy offense, rushing things only gives you more chances to fall behind in score. The right play is to go slow and hope for the best.
i like your thinking – if you are already a better team, or maybe about even, the increase of pace could really give you more of an advantage. but if you are a less talented team, the pace isn’t going to help, and will probably end up hurting the team as a whole.
The one big thing about uptempo, to me and I think this was Chip’s reasoning: if you can have a variety of sets and formations with your base package, the uptempo will negate a defensive personnel change, and advantage to you. If you put your RB in the slot, move your slot wide, move your TE wide, you’re 4 wide and the defense can’t get nickel or dime on the field.
But that shift can become a tell, and defenses know to look for the uptempo mismatch, and overplay. Safety takes RB, LB takes TE or vice versa, but another LB or safety can cheat to the TE or RB. So the advantage is mitigated by the predictability. And that can cause more problems, (turnovers, penalties, confused players). If you go 4 wide and run the ball you defeat the expected mismatch, and probably lose yardage…unless your QB is named Wilson or Newton.
I too thought this is where Chip was going. Especially when he signed Casey and drafted Ertz. I was expecting a lot of 3 TE sets where you could go back and forth between spread passing and power running without changing personnel. Then he came out in 3 WR sets with 1 TE and 1RB on every single play for two years.
Tempo is great when used strategically not dogmatically
The problem is that he never seemed to care about the other part of that equation. More than your opponent takes your opponents offensive plays into account. Whenever it was brought up that his rapid fire strategy was actually counter productive and was causing him to face more plays than he was running he would dismiss that as meaningless.
You’re correct that the advantage comes from running more plays than the opposition. The problem is in how to achieve that. Chip thought you ran more plays by simply running plays haphazardly as fast as you could with no strategic emphasis on limiting your opponents plays. The result was that he ended up running less plays than were run against him. Doug has shown us that you can run 50% more plays than your opponent (75 to 50 has been the approximate breakdown over two weeks) while also running more total number of plays than Chip averaged with his break neck pace (Chip averaged about 68 plays per game here and Doug is over 70).
So what’s the better strategy the one where we run a break neck pace to achieve 68 plays while our opponent runs 75. Or the one where we run plays slowly and deliberately but end up with 75 plays while our opponent runs 50?
Your argument is that long 8 minute drives are good for a team because less drives, and thats fine. But T.O.P is a ratio, says nothing of drives, each team could have double the amount of drives and still produce the same T.O.P stat. Winning T.O.P just vaguely suggests your team was staying on the field and moving the ball while the defense was getting off the field quickly by not letting the other team move the ball. The issue is 2 fold. 1 is that terrible defense and great defenses both tend to not be on the field very long. The other is that people who worship the stat see the stats correlation wit wins and flip the causation. The team protecting a lead will always begin burning as much clock as possible while the losing team desperately preserves it. Neither team cares about T.O.P. the losing team doesn’t want to start hogging clock because that is idiotic. And the winning team doesn’t mind if the losers chew up clock, they guard the sidelines and leave the shallow middle soft for this purpose. It’s just not like stats like turn overs where you build your strategy around them because they actually do cause wins, not a byproduct of winning.
I agree with this, so you must be correct.
TOP is a descriptive stat, not a prescriptive one. Homeless rates are an indication of economic conditions, but no one (hopefully) believes that assigning free housing to homeless people will solve all economic problems.
The stat itself is not important. No one should go into a game looking to maximize ToP. But, with regards to Chip Kelly, it’s also asinine to go into a game saying we’re gonna run as many offensive plays as possible because running more plays equals a huge advantage and success on the field. And then when people bring up that your specific strategy is actually allowing your opponent to run more plays against you than any other team by a wide margin, you go, “that doesn’t matter, defense just needs to make stops.” That’s insane! You shouldn’t try to run a lot of plays. You should try to run more plays than your opponent. You can do that by controlling the ball, forcing 3 and outs, creating turnovers, ect. There’s a million ways. But, blind adherence to the notion that running more plays at all costs is a losing formula.
To be fair, Chip always insisted that the majority of the time he was not looking to go green speed or whatever he called it. Usually went somewhere in the middle. Towards the end of his tenure he rarely used the tempo, and didn’t get to run many plays himself. Doug has actually had a much higher play per game count so far than Chip. I assure you that Chip’s plan wasn’t to regularly go 3 and out then watch the defense get exposed to long drive after long drive because of repeatedly failing in 3rd and long situations. It’s his fault for having a crappy offensive design, no doubt. But he wasn’t really blazing through his possessions because of the tempo, that’s a myth. His offense just sucked and couldn’t stay on the field.
I’ll concede that. I just think he ran tempo more than enough that it amplified a bad offense and resulted in counter productive set of circumstances where the defense was on the field all day long. He should have strategically slowed the game down to help his offense execute and to protect his over matched defense. But he didn’t, because he was dogmatically opposed to doing so.
true, his mid (regular) speed seemed to reliably leave 15 or so seconds on the play clock per play, which adds up on plays the clock is running. He should have used that to allow the QB to read the defense, adjust, etc. But i always wondered if he was just a control freak, like I can talk into my QB’s ear for this long and as soon as that mic is cut, nothing left to see here, snap ball. No other freedoms allowed.
With Chip, he was confident in his offense. The more chances you give him, the more opportunity for his offense to prove better than the opponent’s offense. Who cares if they get the same number of chances. If you give both teams more chances the better team should win more often (the result becomes less random)
Only works if your offense is actually better than the opponents and your defense is also capable of stopping their offense. That’s the ONLY way that works. But, if your offense is significantly better than the other teams and your defense is capable of stopping the other team a fair amount, any system, run at any speed would work. So it’s fairly pointless to try for this theoretical advantage in the face of all actual evidence that it wasn’t actually working or an advantage at all. To compound the problem, his assumption that his offense was so great was also wrong. Based on efficiency statistics (what you’re talking about, i.e. More likely to succeed on any given drive/play) his offenses were middle of the pack at best and actually quite worse by 2015.
I wouldn’t say that Pederson is running plays at a normal pace at all. after the browns game, we had one of the longest time/play [citation needed]. that really shows when the offense consistently lines up, and lets Wentz make adjustments at the line. he usually snaps the ball with only a few sec left. to me thats longer than normal ; )
This! A thousand times THIS!! Oh my god, finally, someone else gets it! I’ve been having this argument with people for years and no one seems to understand the basic truth that if something like plays run is an advantage for your offense you have to consider that it’s also an advantage for the other offense if they get to run more plays, thus you have to look at the difference between plays run to see if you gain any actual advantage.
And, in a game where staying healthy is so important to success why run both sides of your team into the ground with excessive plays if you don’t see any net advantage from it?
I am already in 100% rooting mode in hopes of winning the NFC East. I recognize that if the Redskins lose this week and drop to 0-3 that would be lovely, but I am rooting for them to beat the Giants. I want the Giants to get their first loss and not build anymore confidence. Also hoping the Bears play as if the season is on the line and find a way to beat the Cowboys.
Isn’t it great that we have what appears to be our franchise QB to watch, a competent head coach and coaching staff, and a Philly Type aggressive defense ?? Oh, by the way we got a legit shot to win the division and did I mention we got our 1st round pick back for next year?? Ya, so far so good and this is fun. Let’s enjoy it while we can.
I don’t know how many non-division games we can ultimately win, but this division is poor.
Well that’s 8 wins already
After this week everything until the Seattle-GB-CIN stretch is very winnable. After those three games it’s the division rivals and the Ravens who will likely be out of contention.
Interesting to see if SEA can find a way to replace Lynch sufficiently to allow Wilson’s constant roll-outs to be effective again. Without that huge threat forcing teams to respect the middle of the line (and often commit 8 to the box), Wilson’s struggling to be effective. If they can’t figure that out, that game goes from impossible to just difficult.
Similarly, have to see whether Rodgers stays healthy and what happens to CIN if the team starts to believe that they’re just spinning their wheels.
Of course, have to see how injuries affect the Eagles, too. Long season. Hard to predict anything past the next game.
Id say the GB game is winnable too
I agree. Good article about Rodgers’ decline over the past year:
https://theringer.com/something-is-wrong-with-aaron-rodgers-af70c87703a7
I’d say the Seattle game seems winnable, but they are a second half of the season team. They look like shit right now though.
That offense is a joke
Need more Barner is what will lead to more wins, lots more
Whats that thing Carson wears on his throwing arm?
It’s a tattoo.
Yep. It started with a black pallet and then the tat artist went out for a smoke and never returned.
Compression sleeve. He wore one in college as well. The current one just has a pad built in on the elbow.
learned it from AI
Suck it, Chip.
“The Eagles have played 2 bad teams. They beat 2 bad teams.”
And the Eagles still play Atlanta, Detroit, Giants, Giants, Washington, Washington, Dallas, and Dallas to go along with games the Eagle have against good teams. Still some work that can get gone vs. this schedule. Not 12-4 work, but I can now talk myself into 8-8 or 9-7 work.
This is right about where I am. Would love to sweep the division, but 4-2 seems possible/reasonable. Maybe we come up with one upset against one of the better teams.
All that pales in comparison to watching Carson grow and develop. That’s our season.
“Now let’s talk about Kelce moving forward. If he continues to struggle and play up and down, it is possible the coaches will consider benching him at some point.”
They’re going to have the benefit of using the bye week to swap Barbre into the lineup at RT so they could also use that time to work in Wis at center and Sem at LG.
Kelce needs to man up on Sunday and keep Wentz clean while also getting a few less of our run plays rerouted in the backfield.
They say you can’t teach speed, bit you also can’t teach size. Kelce is outweighed by 30 to 50 pounds and has little chance to hold his own on these younger 320 to 340 lb nose tackles. He is smart and athletic in space, but too easily overpowered by larger defenders, which they all seem to be these days.
If there is a power vacuum in the interior line, I think C is the last place to address it. If we look at what Kelce does very well: he’s a very clean snapper, he’s consistent in calling protections and line assignments, he may be lighter in the pants than the average NT, but he’s also lighter on his feet and he can capably pull and move in space. He’s smart and sees what’s in front of him. Flank him with more size and power (and nastiness), and his value goes up. The risk in getting a road plow at C is less athleticism, possibly more gap penetration, slower feet, inferior PP. Seumalo is an inch taller and 6 or 7 pounds heavier. Looks like a Kelce clone, which suggests that agility trumps driving force for HR and DP. I just hope that they find an agile road grader in the near future.
Yeah, I think the key is to get Kelce in space some more. Like tommy said, get the screen game going. Pull the center. Mathews is a big dude, but he can turn the corner. Empasize kelces strengths, because he’s great at certain things but not others. Perhaps the desean Jackson of centers? A veritable weapon at the center position?
He was not a clean snapper last year, although he apparently had a bad knee injury.
STOPPPPPPPPPPP
KELCE IS A NORMAL SIZE CENTER
He’s 280. The next smallest guy is Kahlil and the guy on the WASTEAM at 295. Most OC are tipping over 300.
He’s 305.
He was 280 at the combine because he had the flu the week before.
He played last year at 295.
OK. I see that now on the Eagles site. 295. Where do you get 305?
The average OC is 305.
That still makes Kelce smaller than average.
(I not saying 10 pounds makes any difference, it might, but I don’t know. If we’re looking causes of his difficulities, that’s a starting point)
Those really aren’t ever updated.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150927072020/http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/roster.html
Kelce told reporters earlier this summer he was up to 305, after playing at 295 under Chip. Said that he felt he was too light at that weight. I can’t find the source but I 100% saw that earlier this summer.
And at 300lbs, you can swing 5-7lbs depending on what time of the day it is.
Right on. Size/strength would be an easy answer for his struggles. But you’re right, every OC gives up 30 pounds to most NT.
I don’t mean to harp on the issue but I see way too much of “omg kelce is sooooo small” and it drives me a bit batty.
I mean he’s struggling for sure, but Weston Richburg is an inch taller and the same weight and for my money the best center in the league.
The guy who flew around and didn’t have as many issues with big DT’s earlier in his career is not here right now. He generally seems to be pressing too much and his confidence and footwork are a bit out of whack. The problems really started when Todd and Mathis left. JP isn’t a big vocal guy so Kelce kind of had to become the defacto leader of the unit. He seems more reactive instead of proactive since then.
Who knows maybe he’s just shot.
so setting aside weight, what do you see is the problem and is it fixable or where do you see this going?
I haven’t been able to watch all 22, but a couple of vines I have seen, his footwork seems all kinds of fucked up.
FWIW – I’ve had the pleasure of personally standing next to Kelce multiple times, on a beach in Sea Isle City, NJ no less, and I can tell you that there is NO way he is anywhere close to 300. I say I had the “pleasure” because he’s always with his girlfriend down there in her bikini : ) I have a relative who plays for a small DIV III state college as a backup guard. He was there on the beach with us and got a pic with Kelce, and the kid was remarkedly physically bigger (wider to be more precise) than Kelce. He is 270. I’d be shocked if Kelce weighs more than 280. And he’s one of those guys who looks 30lbs lighter than he actually is, to boot.
Not according to this article from last year.
“Kelce says he feels great, and is in the best shape of his career at this stage of training camp. He’s at around 285 pounds, and his cardio is far better than it was this time last year.”
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/08/04/jason-kelce-is-in-the-best-shape-of-his-career/
agreed, but what’s going on with him? Saw one play he seemed to get lower than the other guy but he got bull dozed, his feet turned into roller skates. Have you scouted his performance by chance?
See reply to Rob below.
Part of the issue on this play is soldier field is just a piece of trash playing surface.
https://twitter.com/fduffy3/status/778317327251148800
yep, soldier field, it is known
didn’t Doug say something in the pre-game press conference that he’s played at Soldier Field, and knows the quality of the surface? something like ‘guys don’t finish with the same cleats they started with’. i would think that means that the coaching staff was well aware that the conditions could be poor.
maybe that was Schwartz, not Doug. might only really apply to the D, not the O, or maybe the players use what they are comfortable with, even if the coaches disagree?
Kelce did seem better in the second half, maybe he changed cleats? haha
maybe, equipment manager adjustments have been known to help. But yeah, the clip D3FB posted, he got lower than the pass rusher, got his hands on the pass rusher, he just went turf-skiing
It is known
that’s exactly the play I was thinking of
Somone in the league needs to step in and force the Bears to replace the cow pasture, or at least change the name to Cow Pasture.
Kelce is also the lightest center in the NFL by 15 pounds. That’s obviously not a make or break number, but being that far outside the norm (which is like 305 -25 pounds bigger) is interesting.
I think Kelce is done as a good player. We complain about him almost every game. We just gave him leeway because of what, one great year, and that he seems to be a very cool dude.
Kelce had pretty elite level agility as a rookie. I think it’s as simple as the injuries taking a toll on him and reducing him to a below average starting C.
If I remember correctly, Doug went for that 4th and 1 because Sturgis didn’t seem like he was ready after he got hurt?
I remember the same thing, although I got it from the announcers as speculation. I do think it’s plausible and, of course, Pederson is not going to tip his hand about it at the presser.
Moreover, with a stout defense, if the Bears start at the one, it’s long long drive.
Safety.
As well. Was Cutler still in the game? Doesn’t matter, cause it could have been Hoyer, as well.
Agreed, going for 7 with the possibility of settling for 2… not bad.
I think he denied that in his PC. Those plays, though – the fail followed by penalty, followed by Ryan’s TD really showed how the interior power blocking is weak and ineffective. Hopefully DP will remember that the next time.
It’s 12.07pm and drunk already. #LifeIsGood
Enjoy.
Thanks bud. It’s awesome.
我对你博客的爱，你永远不会明白！
A little off topic, but unknown some of you really like pat kirwan on NFL radio. He’s clearly my favorite host on there, and I catch him in the car probably every day because of my schedule.
But I’ve started to notice that he goes easy on some crappy coaches who have been around the league a while. I’m particularly thinking ahout Rex Ryan and fisher. He seems to know these guys pretty well, and the NFL is clearly a people business to pat.
All this is to say that I think it’s not just a big blind spot for pat. It also hi lights how hard it is to make real change in the NFL, schematically, 4th down risks, or otherwise. By hiring Kelly, Lurie bucked this trend. And by hiring big balls Pederson, Lurie might have as well (though it certainly seemed quite the opposite at the time). Not to mention giving the thumbs up on the big trade for wentz. I thought our organization was good before, but now I. Starting to think it’s really good.
Good point. Hadn’t thought of it like that, but it makes some sense. Certainly Howie is an outlier in terms of trades (or at least I seem to remember someone posting a stat that he was).
The NFL is a very conservative organization. You saw how hard people fought against Chip when he tried to change the way things are done. Part of the reason he failed might have been that the players simply wouldn’t buy in (but maybe only a small part?).
But in what sense was hiring Pederson a real change? He wasn’t a hot candidate, but he was an NFL QB who then was the OC for Andy Reid. He’s in the old boy network.
And the Chip hire, in itself, wasn’t against the grain. He was the hot commodity guy. The next Jimmy Johnson, et cetera.
I can’t say I’m willing to back this argument hard. I’m just spitballing here. But here’s the line of reasoning:
The Pederson hiring sure looks like a conservative play at first glance. But let’s recount what’s happened since then:
(1) Pederson and Lurie give the thumbs up on trading up big time for Wentz. He was shooting up draft boards, but devoting such big time assets to an unproven commodity seems a little crazy, especially give the history of these kinds of trades.
(2) The Bradford trade. Perhaps too good of a deal to pass up, but it also means throwing Wentz right into the mix when just about everyone agreed he should sit for at least a year. Another big risk that seems to go against conventional wisdom, especially in the win-now mode of the NFL.
(3) Pederson keeps going for it on 4th down. We’ve all seen the stats that it makes sense to do this much more than teams currently do, but coaches just don’t do it. Perception is huge, and their jobs are on the line if they fail to convert on out of the box 4th downs and lose the game. Maybe Lurie didn’t realize that Pederson had this kind of mentality at the time of the hire, but it fits with other offseason moves.
In all honesty, I think it’s a budding organizational philosophy from owner through coaches and GM–be aggressive and take smart risks despite what conventional wisdom says. They won’t all pan out, but it’s cool to see in the NFL.
For sure moving up to the #2 pick was aggressive – especially if they really preferred Wentz. If the Rams had taken Carson and the Eagles traded all those picks for Goff, I wonder how they would have felt.
As far as the Bradford trade goes – I think this was actually mitigating risk on the team’s part. By trading Bradford, they get back in the 1st round in 2017 and eliminate any expectations that might have been placed on the team for this year (which weren’t high to begin with). Plus they may have been hoping to move him for a good pick after the season, assuming he played well and stayed healthy. Bird in the hand…
Finally, as far as going for it on 4th down, I think it has as much to do with a lack of confidence in the kicker as anything. 4th and 4 from the CLE 40 and 4th and 2 from the CHI28 – if they had Tucker, Bailey or Gostkowski – I wonder what that decision would have been. I’m with Tommy – I think the decision not to kick at 4 & 2 from the goal line was wrong, and if Chicago hadn’t lined up in the neutral zone they would have been stopped. But I figure the fact that the kicker looked like he needed the cart every time he swung his leg probably affected the decision (along with the missed PAT and the other one that barely squeaked in).
I think I would bring Robbie Gould in for a look either this week or during the bye week, especially if this team has aspirations of doing something this year.
You raise an interesting point that I don’t think we can answer. I totally believe that HR and Eagles were going forward with Bradford until they got an offer they could not refuse. That get for Bradford was too much not to grab, but, if the three amigos (DP,FR,JD) were not sold on Wentz’s readiness, I think he’d be carrying a clipboard. I don’t get the sense that this is a corporate sell. They’d run the risk of ruining a prospect if they put him in prematurely. And the way they went on record further suggests that his starting was a decision not tied to the Bradford deal. But there is no definitive proof.
I’d like to hear tommy defend the recievers, if he could
What’s a reciever?
“Pederson used [Sproles] a lot on Monday night. We found out on Tuesday that part of that was due to wanting to take it easy on Ryan Mathews and his ankle.”
still crazy to me that either of them were even in the game so late when Barner and/or Smallwood could have been taking the reps late. maybe Pederson didn’t trust the rookies to really grind it out at the end of the game?
weren’t we up 3 scores?
Yes, but we saw Barner’s situational awareness on the punt return. That isn’t the place to go diving at ankles for a big play. That is a spot to go in controlled, and give up a few yards to channel the return towards his help.
Barner is like 4 years in and has a history of ball security issues. Like you said Smallwood is a rookie. No need to risk a turn over.
does he have a history of fumbles? i remember someone else previously posted something showing that our notions of this were a little over-inflated… can’t find it now, oh well.
i’m firmly on the ‘no more barner’ bus, maybe not driving the bus with Media Mike, but at least on the bus haha. so, i am more than willing to assume the worst for barner, but he’s looked pretty good so far this year even i have to admit.
if your starter has a bum ankle, why was he in the game late? if he really needed a rest, rest him.
if you don’t trust barner to run the ball here, maybe he shouldn’t even be on the team? i’ll give them a pass for not using Smallwood since he’s a rookie. but like you said, barner is in his 4th year.
maybe using Sproles was the right choice – he probably won’t be here after this year, so what does it matter if we run him into the ground at this point?
In limited touches last year he had a couple fumbles didn’t he? Sort of enough of a track record right there.
To be clear I don’t mind him. Think he is a nice change of pace.
good article but one disagreement, I think the extra plays on defense totally yes indeed physically hurt the D. Not just mental. Yes a couple guys said the sports science worked wonders, but others complained. The D was much worse the 2nd half.
Rather see more Banner/Smallwood carrying the all than Sproles. Generally a waste to have his carry it behind this line and he doesn’t have the speed/agility anymore to bounce it outside to the corner.
Imagine this is an adjustment we’ll see more in the coming weeks.
I wouldn’t change Kelce for an untested rookie but he has struggled and badly since the start of last season including with snaps. Simply is getting overpowered by big DT/NT and no amount of coaching is going to change that.
If he starts to have some of the same struggles with snaps/snap counts along with the penalties he did on Mon night, the Eagles will have to consider replacing him. Just lucky this OL is underwhelming and losing their best lineman for a large portion of the season.
I think the Kelce bashing is a bit unfair. He has had struggles for sure, but he’s also played with inconsistent OG play all last season and I think Brooks & Barbre have both struggled this season so far. We paid Brooks in particular a lot of money and I’ve been unimpressed. Kelce is very good at the line assignments, snapping the ball and specific blocks, but obviously will struggle vs a 330 lb NT on his own.
The one I’m most dissappointed in is Stoutland. I cannot think of one OL except maybe Mathis who has improved dramatically or excelled under Stoutland and Mathis was already an all-pro player by the time Stoutland arrived. Johnson has progressed, but not dramatically IMO.
Either way, Roseman has got to invest in the OL heavily to make sure Wentz’s development is not impacted, we can run the ball effectively, we have replacements for Peters, Kelce, Brooks et al. when they are done and better depth in case of injury/bad performance. Once Johnson starts his suspension, the OL is going to really be tested. I’ve got my toes and fingers crossed.
CB also is the other big area we need help – McKelvin, Brooks & Carroll are average and the depth are question marks. We face a ton of very good WR this season and I was surprised Roseman did not upgrade there more and then let Rowe go too. We’re going to need that pass rush to get home big time.
I don’t really rate Stoudtland either. I was a bit disappointed he was retained.
I’d love for them to go hire Brian Ferentz or Josh Henson to take over the offensive line.
Ferentz is Kirk’s kid, and learned how to coach OL blocking from the old man. Iowa is year in and year out the most technically consistent OL in the country. They don’t always produce all pros, but as we’ve seen here, they produce guys who are technically proficent enough to hang around in the league a long ass time. He also was an assistant in NE from 08-11.
Henson was the co-OL coach at Mizzou. He helped produce Mitch Morse, Justin Britt, Evan Boehm, and Connor McGovern. That’s consistent production of quality talent without massive 5 star pedigree.
Totally remember Kirk Ferentz, very good coach. Thanks for the knowledge.
I don’t see Brian going anywhere, ppl are talking about him taking over for his dad when that extension is up and that he’s the reason Iowa has evolved offensively
Yeah, I don’t get the Stoudtland love. The OL has been underperforming since his second year. People throw up a lot of excuses, but it’s his job to overcome those issues and put up a functioning unit.
I was going to make a similar post, that would of been far more lack luster. Good job Gary.
You sell yourself way short, Tumtum
The plays people are bashing him for have nothing to do with the players around him. He is too small to play the position against nose tackles that outweigh him by 40-50 pounds.
He is paid like one of the better centers in the league and he is not one of the better centers in the league. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Eagles pay him 6.2 million next year when they can use that money for good players. He is as good as gone after this season.
I think 40-50 lbs is an exaggeration and disagree he is too small to play the position. If true, he would have never been extended here and would be out of the league. He has had several very good years here at C.
He is quite good at many of the important tasks of a C, but yes has struggled against big NT and with injuries.
He + the OG are not getting enough push in the run game and his pass pro, when he is isolated against a power defender, can be inconsistent.
I’m from the “careful what you wish for” school, it took us many years to find a capable C before Kelce and I have less faith in Roseman & the scouts ability to find talent in the draft/FA than many posters here. If we let Kelce go, especially if we get no return for him, we better have a very good C we’ve developed ready to go or there better be a stud we can bring in. I’m not looking to return to the days of Honey Buns or JJ or NCole or McGlynn .
“It took us many years to find a capable C before Kelce”
I’m not sure what you mean by this. Jamaal Jackson was a capable center.
We’ll just have to disagree. I’d take Kelce over JJ seven days a week.
I’ve seen no evidence Seumalo would be a better C than Kelce so far. He’s obviously a work in progress, but to say right now that Kelce is as good as gone next season is premature IMO.
I’d agree with you if it wasn’t for the money thing. If Kelce was making 2 mil a year then sure, maybe they try to get by with him for another year. But when one of your weakest links also happens to have the 5th or 6th highest cap number on the team… I don’t see Howie Roseman living with that situation.
JJ would be an upgrade, he really held his own at Centre
Disagree, JJ was powerful, but was less versatile than Kelce and not as good at managing the line assignments, working with the QB and snapping the ball consistently IMO.
I have a real bad feeling about this week. I expected the defense to look elite. While they have looked very good, I feel like they are going to be exposed this week. I also think that the Steelers D is going to spank the Little Duch Boy this week (see trying to make it stick).
I am not as high on this team as the first two weeks suggest I should be, and won’t be as low as this game will make most of these boards.
Still all-in on Wentz.
I have a good feeling about this week. First of all it’s a 4:25 game so I am going to be good and drunk by the time it starts. Second of all, the Eagles aren’t supposed to win, so it’s a no-lose situation.
If the Eagles can hang around within a score (<7 pts) in the 2nd half, then yeah I like their chances too.
Steelers though are well-designed to play ahead and especially their defense. Not hard to see this OL unraveling if they face their share of pressure if the Steelers get a bit of a lead.
After one game, the Steeler defense is ranked #6 DVOA against the rush and #14 against the pass. Last year, they were ranked #5 and #13, so it seems this is close to “what they are,” which is right around #11-12 total D in the league. “Good,” but not great like the Steeler defenses of old.
Where the spankage will occur is their offense. Ranked 2nd in 2014, 3rd, in 2015, 7th this year. Big Ben against our secondary could be dangerous.
Incidentally, we are ranked 12th in O, 9th in D. We are at the top of DVOA (woo hoo) and Pitt is #4. A close matchup on paper, but I just don’t see it. Ben is too good and experienced, and I would expect the rook to fall back a little. If he doesn’t… well, shit!
Ben’s effectiveness drops when his run game stalls and he’s getting moved by pass rush. If our D can be stout v the run, the Birds will have a decent chance, I think.
Yea, me too. Antonio Brown with Mills or Carroll in coverage is no contest IMO. The guy is a stone cold killer and Big Ben sets him up very well.
Ben will exploit those matchups if he can. The key for our D will be pass rush. I’m looking to Schwartz to dial up some creative blitz packages. Maybe the D can knochk their 3rd straight qb out of a game.
Absolutely, the problem though is even when you get to and hit Ben he does not usually go down. He improvises well and extends plays which with our coverage could = death.
You’re right. It’s definitely going to be tough. My idea is to send the cbs in on blitzes (since they can’t cover anyway). Ask more coverage by the safetys, lbs, maybe even bring Barwin back to cover a TE.
I’m remembering that game where JJ and the defense had something like 7 sacks on Ben. Just freaking killed him. If there’s any time for the new look defense to really come out, this is it.
that’s the year Pitt beat Cards in the SB that we should have won.
Wasn’t that the year we barely got in by blowing out the Cowboys? But I thought we were better than the Cards, even so.
Steelers are widely considered one of the top 3 teams in the league, many consider them the best. Losing to them should not be discouraging for anyone with remotely realistic expectations. If we lose convincingly we only confirm that we aren’t contenders for a super bowl, which we already know. But if we compete and win, hoo boy. Sit back an enjoy this one. Only possible surprise can be positive.
heck, even if we lose, i’m happy if we see more long-term future in Wentz, and keep it a close game.
Absolutley no shame in losing this week. Like I said I won’t be as down on the team as the beating we are going to take should make me.
JaCorey Shepard is back
hopefully Chip was right about him. If he can be a legitimate replacement to what Boykin was for us, we could sure use the bodies in that secondary.
How about Huff playing the Boykin role on punt coverage Monday night… he was looking good.
Yes he impressed me.
Really? Go rewatch the Eddie Royal TD. Huff covered like Timmy from South Park. (I’m not saying he didn’t cover well on other punts, but that one was just brutal.)
Barner was the gunner on that play.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/chicago-bears/0ap3000000706209/Eddie-Royal-returns-punt-for-65-yard-TD
Huff is #13, right? No one outside of #13, right? That means he has contain. #13 never gets off the block (was he held?) right? #13 drifts inside when Royal starts to his left, right? That opens up that whole side of the field. He doesn’t get double or triple blocked until the last second. Bad play by Huff? Absolutely. Shit happens. I’m not trying to be a dick on this. My point is simply that he wasn’t “looking good” on punt coverage.
Josh Huff wears #13.
surprised they would release OL Greene from the practice squad to make room for Shepard. with Lane’s upcoming suspension looming, i would think they would make room for more OL on the roster.
then again, maybe they already prepared for this with the current 53 man roster (seems weird, since we are effectively losing one OL no matter how you look at it)
They have been sitting three inactive OL the first two games; and those guys are already on the 53-man.
Eagles remain atop the rankings at Football Outsiders, boyz.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2016/week-2-dvoa-ratings
“[since 2003] every team ranked No. 1 in DVOA after Week 2 has made the playoffs and finished at least 10-6”
And how many won the Super Bowl?! 😉
If I recall correctly the two year’s that Andy’s Eagles led the league in DVOA the Giants won the Superbowl.
im sure we can change that stat
below is the twitter item I mentioned recently showing the Rams v. Eagles coaching staff. I clearly don’t know how to add a tweet here.
you just paste the URL, but you then need to reload the page to see it embedded.
Like Cafone said, in Twitter click on share and link to tweet, copy the url text. Then paste it into the text box where you are typing the comment. After a few seconds the avatar picture of the tweet source will appear in the bar below the text you are typing where pictures load. Then you can click the post button.
Mostert is on an NFL team again! The Bears put him on their 53. Going against Dallas Sunday night…
Eagles dodged a bullet there. A week sooner and they’d 1-1 courtesy of MoNstert.
I am going to enjoy seeing Dallas lose to Brian Hoyer.
Peterson is having surgery and will be out 3-4 months.
The chances the Vikings 1st round pick we got in the Bradford trade will be better than the pick we trade for Wentz just improved.
wow that would be something.
edit: If the Eagles were really so impressed with Wentz that at the time Howie is negotiating with the Vikings they are thinking, Wentz is probably ready enough to play now, then I am even more impressed with the trade. Howie could have just been happy with a 2nd rounder.
Defense is still really good and they’re already 2-0. Hard to see them finishing worse than 8-8.
They will still make the playoffs. Think we will pick in the late twenties next year.
I hope not. Still too early but yeah I see them still finishing 8-10 wins.
Adrian Peterson played one game in 2014. The Minnesota Vikings ranked fourth in rushing DVOA.
AP is an amazing athlete, but overrated as a difference maker.
And he’s injury prone.
At least they have a qb who is not injury prone. Not.
as proven by the drastic re-evaluation of the position
And OT Ryan Kalil is going on IR, injuries mounting in our favor for the Vikings.
+1 for Sammy Dollaz excuses, no offseason, no AP, that line was already terrible now they’re losing their OT. If Vikings make the playoffs sammy will be a god in Minnesota.
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–Z38RNZD_–/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/191eulvlpbsosgif.gif
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0U42G_4yqQNcmllbHY5NUhqYnc/view?usp=sharing
Unless the Packers, Bears or Lions get their shit together, Vikings own this division. Packers should be better, but they’ve consistently f’d up for years even though they have had the best QB in the league.
Eagles game being shown in almost the whole country, but we will have the Jets game here in NE. I hate the NFL.
Hate the NFL, love NFL ticket.
sure, sell it to me without me needing a satellite.
They’ve gotten a lot better. Upfront cost can be zero, small footprint, and it’s easier to split off internet packages without a meaningful price difference.
I would love to see Pederson’s success lead to a long stay in Philly. Fingers crossed.
Same here. For me as a pretty big Andy Reid supporter, I think he was a classy guy and generally ran a football team as well as anybody not named Belichick. Of course he had obvious flaws, particularly on gameday. Anyway it was rough watching him leave on such a low point, he had a good run but came up short in one critically important area in this town. If Wentz becomes a star and Reid’s protege brings us a Superbowl somehow, I think that will sort of exorcise Reid’s legacy and allow it to just be what it is.
If Eagles make the playoffs and maybe win one wildcard game I am just fine with picking at #25 in next year’s draft.
depends what the Vikings do. we own their pick
…
I think his point was that if the Vikings pick end up around 25 and we perform like around pick 25 (aka the pick the Browns get), then we traded nothing for Wentz
So if we meet the Vikings in the playoffs, do we let them win to get them into the NFC Championship Game (Woo, 3rd round pick!)?
Eh, no!
WIN BABY!
Thank you.
What if we meet the Vikings in the wildcard?
goe for the knees!
Qualifying for the playoffs would have two benefits
– we’d have a totally wonderful surprise none of us really expected
– the other 3 fan bases could be repeatedly told to go F themselves
If running more plays is a benefit to YOUR offense and it’s such a benefit that you’d build your entire program around maximizing the amount of plays YOU run, then why is it not a similar benefit to the OTHER offense when your strategy allows THEM to run more plays? Shouldn’t it be just as much of a priority to limit the other teams offensive plays if it’s such a huge advantage.
The actual key stat is difference in plays run between the two teams. It’s only an advantage if you get to run more plays in a game than your opponent. If you run 80 plays and the opponent runs 97…that’s no advantage. If you run 75 and the opponent runs 50 that’s a huge advantage, despite actually running less total number of plays.
If you’re running the same number of plays in less time, you are gassing the other D more than they are gassing yours. If you are running fewer plays that’s the problem, not ToP.
I said nothing about ToP. Only plays run which Kelly told us was the key stat. And it seemed like our defense was the one gassed the last few years not the other teams defense that was glad to watch us go 3 and out in 46 seconds and then get to sit on the bench while their offense held the ball for 5 min.
There were times last year where 46 seconds would have been 3 possessions for us. I remember quite a few incomplete, incomplete, incomplete 13 second 3 and outs last year. It was awful.
I also disagree with this because if you are both running the same amount of plays but you have less TOP that simply means that the other team gets longer breaks and periods of rest even if they have to rush through the handful of plays you run each drive. Whereas you might get a couple extra seconds each play on defense, you simply have less extended periods of rest. Where’s the advantage in that?
Seems that Chips system only truly works if his offense is scoring on the majority of drives AND his defense combats the extra fatigue and strain of facing so many more drives by forcing 3 and outs regularly.
But, if your system requires your offense to score every drive and your defense to force a 3 and out every drive to truly be successful, otherwise, all the elements start to work against each other and become counter productive, then it’s not much of a system.
Time between plays is more important to resting (and setting) a D than time on the sidelines. I agree that # of plays is the key stat, disagree that running them quickly hurts your D more than the other D.
I see what you’re saying and I actually agree with you. But, I’d throw the caveat in there that running plays quickly and giving the defense you’re facing less time between plays to rest CAN fatigue them more than you fatigue your own offense and defense IF the system is functioning ideally as designed. We saw this many times when the Eagles under Chip were running on all cylinders how effective tempo could be and how tired some defenses got trying to keep up with it.
However, it CAN ALSO be very counter productive when the offense is struggling to convert first downs and is going three and out. In those instances, I believe tempo is extremely counter productive. The end result is a bunch of three and outs that give our defense less than a minute to catch their breath before having to go back out on the field. As the game progresses each team gets to run substantially more drives due to the quick turnarounds and three and outs. More total drives for both teams, while a progressive benefit for your team with each extra drive if you’re offense is more efficient than the opposing team, becomes a detriment once your offense is struggling and the opponents offense is more efficient than yours. To further exacerbate the problem, as the game wears on, your defense get’s more and more tired from constantly getting less than a minute to catch their breaths between drives and their defense has little problem recovering from quickly run three and outs, so the opponents offense actually gets progressively more efficient against your tired defense with every drive.
The end result is your team ends up not running any more plays than normal (Kelly only averaged 68 per game over his tenure here), while the opponent gets to run a whole bunch more (as evidenced by our defense routinely seeing 2-3 more full games worth of snaps over an entire season.
So, yes, in theory tempo CAN be very beneficial and if executed under ideal conditions should give the offense running it an advantage, there are times that it not only doesn’t make sense, and doesn’t provide that benefit, but actually causes a noticeable detriment to the team as a whole.
Kelly needed to find ways to use tempo strategically. Use it when the offense was converting to put pressure on the opponent, but he also needed to learn how to slow the game way down and play keep away when going up against an elite offense with an overmatched defense who was getting tired.
He also needed to find ways to increase his offense’s efficiency. There were too many wasted plays run directly into the teeth of the defense in the name of tempo above all else. Pre-snap adjustments and audibles are the obvious way to get out of a bad play call, but certainly not the only way. Prior to last year he compensated for his offense’s lack of pre-snap reads and audibles by incorporating post-snap reads, options and packaged plays that could adjust the play post-snap. Continuing to insist on tempo which eliminated the QBs ability to adjust the play pre-snap while simultaneously eliminating most, if not all the post-snap reads, was the true downfall of his tempo attack last year. But, that’s a whole separate post.
Overall, I still think that our insistence on using tempo despite times when it was strategically opposing our objectives and obviously putting our defense in a tough spot, was a major cause for our decline last year. And, ultimately ended up with us running less plays than our opponents. And, finally, I think Kelly’s responses when asked why he runs so much tempo (maximizing plays run is a definite advantage) and blowing off the obvious follow-up when his tempo causes the exact opposite (more plays run by the opposition) as unimportant, always struck me as illogical and dogmatic.
Pretty much agree with all that. Tempo needs a first down to be effective. I wouldn’t put too much stock into what a coach tells the press, though. Seems as though there is now an organization wide effort to be open with the press. I couldn’t care less about that, it should be play on the field not press conferences that make the fans happy. That said, I’m pretty happy with the play on the field so far.
It has been known for a while that the best strategy on fourth and one from the one yard line is to go for it, generally speaking. This is because even if you don’t make it there are many good results that can happen when the other team takes over from their own one yard line. However, just about every NFL coach has ignored the odds and kicked the field goal unless it was the end of the game and they needed more than three points. So I would normally have been thrilled that Peterson went for it. Except this was the one of the rare cases, leading by 15 points, where the field goal would probably have been the best decision, because it would have meant that the Bears needed three scores to win. The argument that it would build team camaraderie and confidence for the future is a bit weak if your main concern is salting away a win in the current game.
I also want to point out a brilliant bit of strategy that occurred in week 1 during the Cardinal/Patriot game. With about four to five minutes left and trailing by one point the Patriots were driving and looked like they were going to score at least a field goal. The Cardinals had two time outs left and used them there rather than saving them until it was Cardinal’s ball. The announcers were perplexed saying they had never seen the timeouts used so early. Most coached wouldn’t have had the guts that Arians had and would have used the time outs after they got the ball back. But the reason it was the right choice was because when you are on defense the only way you have to control the clock is with time outs (not counting faking injury). When you are on offense you have several other means of controlling the clock. If Arians did not use his timeouts there he likely would have received the ball back with two minutes or less. As it turned out he got the ball back with much more time than that. Also the Patriots ended up making their field goal. When Arizona got the ball back they did get to field goal range and missed the attempt badly. Arizona should have won that game. But a great piece of strategic thinking by Arians, in my view.
eff the cardinals
Yes, I was happy they lost.
Pretty sure we were at the 2+ when doug decided to go for it. Could be wrong. Penalty brought it to 1
No you are right, and the decision to kick should have been obvious. I mentioned it at the time in the game thread, and got some pushback along the lines of “sending a message that he believes in the team” and “having confidence in the team”.
That stuff can be taken too far and I don’t want Dougie getting cocky about it. 4 for 4 on 4th down is great, but if you do it too much an in the wrong situation it will bite you. As Tommy said, when you have the lead in the fourth quarter, putting the game another possession out of reach is goal #1.
The feedback would be a lot different if a guy that wasn’t involved in the play didn’t line up in the neutral zone. Wouldn’t have felt so good to be up 8 after that punt return with 5 mins left. A good team will beat you if you do stuff like that.
You are correct, but it’s still normally good to go for it.
help me out here, the giants beat dallas and the saints, 2 crap teams with crap defenses and one with a back up qb.
yet the NFl people are saying the giants are for real and going to make the play offs?
its better to be under the radar until the end of the season for sure for us, but I hate the giants.
The Giants were dreadful because they had an awful defense in the past. Like one that couldn’t even stop bad offenses. It does look different so far, so people will change their opinions of them for the time being. Nobody knew if the spending spree would work, but maybe it has to some extent.
Drew Brees crushed their defense last year, so holding the Saints to 13 points means something’s definitely changed.
On the other hand, the Giants only barely won (requiring a blocked FG return touchdown), so maybe the changes cancel each other out?
That score got my attention. I watched a decent portion of the Giants v Cowboys in week 1, and I was surprised to see Prescott untouched for most of the first half. Giants paid a ransom for Harrison and Vernon in FA, and I expected to see more. But then I concluded that Spagnuolo was not letting The Greatest OL Ever get any push, so Prescott (The Greatest Rookie QB Ever) was able to take his time in the pocket. Elliot was a non-factor and Bryant, Beasley and Witten were target practice for TGRQBE. The Giants got hands on him in the 2nd half though. Spags strategy also neutralized TGRQBE as a running threat.
Given that Giants offense was unimpressive, I thought NO would rack up some points – at least enough to win. I saw none of the NY-NO game, but apparently Sean Payton got undressed. We’ll learn a bit more this weekend. Giants D could hold Cousins and company scoreless, and then again Washington’s D knows McAdoo pretty well. Washington will definitely bring their A game at 0-2, and NY may be less determined to pull out all the stops. Giants DL is formidable vs the run. Harrison is a wall, and the LB’s have but to stay in their gaps. Vernon is a legit pass rusher, but he’s a 3 down DE and he can play the run pretty well. So her’s hoping that Jay Gruden knows something that Sean Payton does not.
Home / Away. Look at Brees away from the dome over the last few seasons. The Giants did nothing impressive.
*rolls up my sleeves and does the math*
…2015 Average Score Home: 23.25
…2015 Average Score Away: 26.875
Nope! They’re actually BETTER away! That makes what the Giants did a miracle!
That’s what I get for repeating things I hear. The comment on the radio was “look at Brees away from the dome……….”
ill help you out… The media is fucking Dumb. We OWN the Giants in case the media HASNT figured it out yet…from 2012-Now the Eagles are 6-2 against the Giants, the last time they beat us was 3 years ago with Matt Barkley at QB lol
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10/19/15 …. 27-7 Eagles Win
1/3/15 ………35-30 Eagles win
10/12/14…….27-0 Eagles shutout win
12/28/14….. 34-26 Eagles win
10/6/13……..36-21 Eagles win
10/27/13……7-15 Loss this was the game Matt Barkley played QB
9/30/12……..19-17 Eagles win
12/30/12……7-42 Eagles Loss… This was literally the last time the Giants beat an Eagles team with a QB other than Garbage Matt Barkley
Our Defensive Line has been primarily responsible for our recent domination of the Giants, and our DL under schwartz is BETTER THAN EVER, while the Giants have literally done Nothing to upgrade their OL that has been consistently dominated by the Eagles Defensive Line.
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We don’t have to take the Giants serious until they address their suspect offensive line, specifically the Right Tackle and Right Guard. Our DL is going to continue to dominate their OL and lead us to wins against the Midgets..Newhouse and Jon Jerry might be the weakest starting Rt/RG tandem in the NFL. Cox, Curry and BG will continue to make them Our Bitch!
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The media is clueless… The Giants OL has been a problem for YEARS now and they did NOTHING to upgrade it, so I don’t know why anyone would expect different results.. Who cares about star wide recievers if you get your ass kicked in the trenches? We are a terrible match up for the Giants, and they havent done anything to even try to fix that, while our DL is better than it has been in YEARS
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Btw, the Giants have aerage Linebackes and slow Safeties that are probably going to struggle to match up against ERTZ, Burton, Celek and Sproles in the passing game
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No idea why the media is over rating a team fundamentally weak and Flawed in the trenches
Crushing the Giants is my favorite in-season activity.
Yup, I loathe Dallas with the fire of a thousand suns. I hate the Giants just a little bit more than that.
nah skins are the worst, they’re the only ones that have a chance. Super enjoying the Cousins melt down.
The Giants, and especially their fans / supporters, are the scum of the galaxy.
Did this make the rounds yet? It aligns with what we have talked about.
https://twitter.com/colincowherd/status/778454771002855428
I agree with his premise.
Goes back to McNabb/Culpepper for me. I think Daunte would have been just as good with Reid as Donovan because of the support.
I think he’s overvaluing the support in Dallas, especially beyond this year. They have good skill players -Dez, Witten, and a decent slot guy but who knows how Father Time will toll them in 2017. And also F— Dallas.
Agreed. I think the supporting cast needs to be of a certain caliber to help the QB grow, but that only goes so far. Coaching is so much more important, and there is very little evidence of the Dallas staff developing QBs.
Yeah, the numbers are debatable, and simply adding them is suggesting the support and talent have an equal influence on development outcome (not sure myself, a lot like the nature vs nurture debate). Which is all debatable. But I really like the premise of his thought experiment. I agree with him that not enough people (fans/pundits) take coaching/fit/talent that plays with them/culture etc into account when projecting how players should turn out, not just for QB’s but all prospects.
One thing tough to judge some of these guys on is “response to adversity”. Winston has shown he responds well. For that I rate him higher than Wentz simply because he Wentz hasnt shown us.
I hope Wentz responds well. McNabbs biggest fault may have been how he played when the Chips were down. Sure there was 4/26, but for the most part he fell apart.
Much as I hate to admit it, i look forward to a close game Sunday just to see how we respond.
Honestly, I hope we never have a close game again and never have to see how we respond… (assuming we win)
You rememember 2008 against the Cards where it was the defense that blew it? or 2004 SB where the defense couldnt stop the Pats at all?
I meant week to week and all games. Not just the big ones. McNabb usually came to play in big games. I put the Super Bowl on he offense as a whole more than anything else though. D wasn’t terrific but kinda tough when they know the signals, amirite??
Kelce has certainly struggled, but I dont think an offense scores 30 points without the center also winning his share of battles, so it’s not like KElce DIDNT have his moments against the Bears, it was NOT all bad,
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It’s no secret that he struggles with the massive NT’s, so this probably won’t change this week when he will give up about 60lbs to the steelers NT… But before we panic, I want to see how he holds up against the 4-3 defensive tackles
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This has nothing to do with kElce, but fundamentally I THNK fans are unfair in how they judge Offensive lineman… If Jason Peters gives up a sack, people worry about him declining. Newsflash, when an offense runs 70 plays, the opposing defensive line is also going to win its share of battles, I feel like often fans have unrealistic expectations thinking that quality OL should never get beat, but it doesn’t work that way… If we run 70 plays, and an OL has 5 bad plays, we tend to crush the guy as if there isnt talent linned up across from him.
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I am a firm believer that the trenches are where games are won and lost.. If the offense is scoring 25-30 points, it probably means the OL held up more times than not generally speaking. I haven’t taken the time to watch all of Kelce’s snaps so I can’t speak on him, but I don’t know too many offenses that can put up points without the center winning his share of battles.
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3-4 NT linning up in front of him was NEVER and Will Never be a great a match up for Kelce, so while he certainly played bad last year. I blame some of it on the guards and I blame some of it on defenses knowing chips playbook too well. He hasn’t been GREAT against the 3-4 NT he faced the first two weeks of this season, but I think that narrative gets exaggerated a bit, but we will really find out this year since we have a caoable center in Wiz on the bench, and the rookie Seumalo can also play Center, so if Kelce is as bad as the exaggerated narrative suggests, im sure someone will replace him in the starting lineup at some point This year, but that talk is still premature…
I’m down to my last week seeing if he can improve. If he doesn’t, they need to use the by week to prep up a Peters-Seumalo-Wis-Brooks-Barbre starting unit. They’ll have two weeks to make that work.
He’s never going to get much push against nose tackles, but that’s never been his game. If you want to see Eagles OL get worse, take Kelce out. Last season was a poor showing by damn near every Eagle on the offense. And I still believe that if stability on his flanks can be achieved, he’ll be okay.
We’ll see what shakes out, but his steady decline in play has been maddening.
The thing that most concerned me was the Chipwagon article after the Browns game showed two plays, focusing on other players, but just casually mentioned Kelce missing his block out in space both times. Pulling and getting those LB was the reason for excusing the lack of push up the middle.
Correct. He really isn’t doing anything right.
I watched those pics, and you are absolutely right. Kelce doesn’t look particularly agile in that first whiff were he appears to be trying to cut the defender. He looks stiff or sore. Hopefully, it’s some first-game rust. If that’s all he’s got for our division games, we will be in trouble.
Wiz came in with praise, but never seemed to be able to gain momentum despite a few open spots on the line. I am not convinced he is any more than a grass is greener situation.
That’s fair, but Kelce has been completely brutal.
Barner has been so amazing that you need a new hate target because you need a hate target.
The article was about Kelce. Barner is still a stinky turd unworthy of a roster spot, but I don’t feel a need to thread jack every conversation with Barner hate.
And I’ve been hating on Kelce (and Kendricks) for quite a while.
The funny part is that we wont let you escape it. All in fun though.
No escape necessary. When his unmeritorious inclusion on this roster is in need of pointing out, I’m all over it.
Kelce also had big problems with Hankins from the Giants and not sure how he do against other similar bigger 4-3 NTs.
Kelce always had problems due to functional strength, but in his great years, it seemed he was stronger, but after his recent injuries it seems his functional strength is all gone
So the Eagles are #1 in DVOA and Wentz is PFF highest rated QB.
But, but, but…it was the Browns and the Bears!!!
Its a very valid point. I think all these numbers drop quite a bit even if we can squeak a win (we wont).
I’m not buying anything you’re selling about Sproles and the goal line. Want to mix things up? Go right ahead. RM has(I believe) the most rushes inside the 5. Want to try and fool the defense with Sproles? I can buy that too. But trying so sell Sproles as great play because the defense can’t find him and he can fit in smaller holes? Too many PBR’s. Goal line, I want someone who can move the pile. It was a silly call and hopefully not one they’ll do often. Nice they tried it, now throw it away :).
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Thanks for explaining why they went light on running RM. Makes sense now. Need RM for the long haul…..
I liked the team taking some risks on 4th down. Basically if you are in that part of the field, the upside is just too high. Fresh set of downs, extra time with defense resting, potential score… vs mostly getting touchbacks. Plus the defense tend to be demoralized by giving it up more than the offense.
Kelce… well… he just isn’t going to hold up well in one on one matchups with DL. He is better being used on the attack where his mobility gets him out to the second level.
Have to look at this as a schematic change in the offense that isn’t favorable to what Kelce is really good at. Anyhow, he starts playing faster and lower and he should be OK and his utility in the run game should help balance things out.
Can’t judge too much on all the third and long stuff.
I think we need to put together a package of players on the way out and try and get a true #1 receiver. Kelce, Kendrick’s and huff for Sammy Watkins (wasting away in buffalo) or Allen Robinson.
I’m sure they would take two overpaid starters and an underachiever for a pro bowl level WR
Oft injured Pro bowl level WR.
Kelce and Kendricks are oft injured too… it’s a salary cap league and Watkins is very valuable on a rookie deal. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen crazier things. I think CB and OL are much larger issues for us though. DGB has a high ceiling if someone can motivate him. Agholor is still improving (no way to go but up from last year). But OL can become a mess very quickly– Lanes situation, Kelce has been very mediocre at best, Brooks has had his struggles and we just signed him, Peters is about to fall off a cliff, and Barbre is just a guy. That is 5 question marks. And we’re already up close to the cap without resigning Logan yet. I know we can cut/trade some guys but that creates holes as well. I’m excited about Wentz and the future, but think we will need another big offseason.
The thing is, like last season, half the league is crying for quality O linemen. I’d do the research and give more precise numbers except last time I was belittled by the juvenile bullies so I won’t bother this year.
Who is staying up for Designated Survivor I wonder what happens in the first episode.
Broadcast TV is so lame. The show you cited should last until Christmas, then die a slow death.
But then who becomes President? Will he have named a new VP by then?
Well, Kiefer Sutherland could never be President. He’s Canadian. Also he never speaks in a normal voice. He always does that hoarse manly whisper.
Which defense do I start? Philly D vs Pittsburgh OR Miami D vs Browns?
Miami
(New thread)