Back in the summer the Eagles at the Bills seemed like a Super Bowl preview. It still could be, but the season hasn’t gone as expected for either team. The Bills aren’t going to win their division, which is shocking. The Eagles have clinched the NFC East, but are likely to end up the #3 seed. This is a pair of good teams. They just weren’t as dominant as expected.
When you talk about Buffalo, you start with Josh Allen. Right now he’s the best QB in the league. Allen is a truly unique player. Justin Herbert is similar in some ways, but Allen is more dynamic. He’s got 25 TD passes and 12 rushing TDs. Buffalo is #3 in points and yards on offense, largely because of Allen. He is one of the rare guys who can carry an offense.
Allen is special because of his ability to make plays out of structure, as a runner and passer. His goal is to buy time and get the ball downfield, but he will also take off running. He has a rare combination of size, speed and strength. Defenders struggle to get him to the ground. Allen’s strength can also be a weakness. He will hold the ball a long time as he’s trying to make a play. That leads to sacks and fumbles.
The pass rush must be smart. Don’t fly up the field wrecklessly. The pass rush was very good in the Chargers game, but Herbert still burned them as a runner and with last second throws. Allen is a step up so the defense has to be very disciplined. The back six or seven must plaster their guys in coverage. If you leave someone open, Allen has the arm strength to get the ball to them.
There is one huge difference in the Bills and Chargers offenses…the OL. Buffalo has a good OL. It isn’t full of high picks or household names. The guys function well together and they are a tough, aggressive unit. I think their OL could tilt the game in their favor. The last good OL the Eagles faced was Chicago’s and that game didn’t go so well.
RB James Cook leads the NFL with 1,532 yards. He is an interesting runner. He’s patient to the hole and then explodes upfield. He’s very good at cutback runs, something that killed the Eagles in the Bears game. Cook is really good in open space. He’s able to weave in traffic and get the most out of his runs. He’s got a handful of long TD runs this year.
The WRs aren’t special at all. Buffalo has tried to find a top end guy for a few years now and it just hasn’t worked. Khalil Shakir is dangerous because he is so good at RAC. Allen will flick him the ball and Shakir flies upfield. Buffalo does have a pair of good TEs in Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. Those guys can make plays. Their #3 TE is Jackson Hawes. He is a stud blocker.
The key to defending Buffalo is to keep things in front of you and tackle well. You need to fly to the football because they have so many players who excel after the catch. Make them sustain drives.
They are the top rushing offense in attempts and yards. It will be interesting to see how Vic Fangio defends them. Will he play more base defense? Will he go with more eight-man fronts? It is a good thing Jalen Carter is back for this game. The Eagles will likely need to rotate up front and will need Carter’s ability to make plays. If you get them off-schedule, they are easier to defend. It does hurt that Nakobe Dean is out. He’s a strong run defender and blitzer. Jihaad Campbell is good, but this will be a big test for his run defense. Buffalo will use 6 OL more than most teams and they do it very effectively. Another thing for Fangio to worry about.
Buffalo tends to run hot and cold. That inconsistency has led to some big deficits. They are so good they were able to make impressive comeback wins over the Ravens (down 15 late) and Patriots (down 17 at the half). They are relentless, largely due to Allen.
The Eagles offense is going to be critical in this game. If they go 3 & out too often, Buffalo will run away with the game. Luckily the Bills defense has some issues. They are 15th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed. They are 29th in rushing yards allowed. This is a team you can run on. Teams average 5.4 ypc against the Bills. They have allowed 160 or more yards seven times this season. Not good.
Luckily the Eagles rushing offense is heating up, averaging 174 yards per game over the past three weeks. This would be an ideal time to have another productive ground game. Tell Saquon and Tank to rest their legs on Saturday. Jalen Hurts running more has also been a help in recent weeks. He gives the offense another weapon.
The numbers tell you Buffalo has a good pass defense. I think that is a bit deceiving. They are terrible against the run so why throw it? Also, they’ve faced some bad QBs. Still, they do have a knack for takeaways. Greg Rouseau and Joey Bosa are the top pass rushers. It would be great to have Lane Johnson back, but he’s been ruled out this week. The most interesting DT is rookie Deone Walker. He’s massive at 6-7, 331. He’s got 7 TFLs and 4 PDs. He can be very good against the run. There are plays when he looks dominant and others where he is pedestrian. He could become a real force over time.
AJ and DeVonta have a real advantage over the Bills DBs. This is an area the Eagles can exploit, especially if the run game is working. Jalen Hurts lit up the Bills back in 2023, with the Eagles winning a wild 37-34 shootout in OT. The offense hasn’t been playing at that level this season so I wouldn’t expect the same fireworks. On the flip side, the defense is worlds better so I wouldn’t expect Buffalo to put up 34.
As always, STs will be a big x-factor. Jake Elliott has been struggling recently. The Bills are on their third kicker of the season and he missed an extra point last week. I don’t know who has the advantage there. Ray Davis is the leading KOR in the league, at 31 yards per return. He is compact and runs hard. The Eagles need to be smart and tackle well on KOs.
This is a hard game to pick. Sean McDermott and Josh Allen have never beaten the Eagles. Vic Fangio’s defense is playing at a very high level right now. But the Bills OL and run game make me nervous. No matter what happens, this will be a good test for the Eagles. They have played a tough schedule overall, but the last two games were easy. This one will have a playoff feel. Let’s see how the Eagles handle that.
The soft part of the schedule arrived and the Eagles took advantage of it. They beat the Raiders 31-0 and followed that up by winning at Washington, 29-18. The Commanders are a better team than the Raiders and made the game close for a half. The Eagles were sloppy in the first half and proved to be their own worst enemy. They played much cleaner in the second half and built up a 19-point lead. A garbage time TD made the final score look closer.
You would prefer not to start slow, but the ability to overcome that, take control of the game and win comfortably is something good teams have. The Eagles are a good team. The mystery is how good of a team. We really won’t find that out until the postseason. Saturday’s win clinched the NFC East for the Eagles so we know they’ll be back in the playoffs for a fifth straight year. That’s truly impressive.
It was great to see Saquon Barkley have a big game. His numbers have been trending up recently. Still, it was great to see him go 21-132-1 and have a couple of highlight runs as part of that. The offense just has a different feel when Barkley is at his best. Barkley coming alive benefits the whole offense. It takes pressure off Jalen Hurts and helps the passing game to be more efficient.
If not for the sloppy first half, the Eagles would have dominated the game for the second week in a row. Does that mean the team is peaking? Hard to say. They are playing complementary football and showing some good signs. But it is also against bad teams. Sunday’s game against Buffalo will give us a better idea of where this team is.
COACHING
Nick Sirianni had an odd game. The Eagles had 4th & 1 at their own 41 in the first quarter and he decided to punt. I don’t think that was a terrible decision, but it was interesting for someone who is normally aggressive. Sirianni didn’t handle the final drive of the first half very well. Jake Elliott had missed a FG on the previous drive. The Eagles weren’t aggressive before the 2-min warning. They ended up trying a 57-yd FG. It missed. A penalty on WAS gave Philly one more play. Jalen Hurts threw the ball out of bounds and they tried a 52-yd FG. It missed. Sirianni went for 2 late in the game. He was likely just going off the chart, but it bothered the Commanders.
Kevin Patullo had a good game. The Eagles used empty sets and threw the ball early to get WAS out of their base defense. Once they went nickel, the Eagles started running the ball more. They were 3 for 3 in the red zone. They started 0-4 on third downs and then went 4 for 5.
Vic Fangio’s defense limited the Commanders to 220 yards. They did score 18 points, but 3 came after the fumble to start the game and 8 came against the backup defense late in the game. The coverage was excellent for most of the game. They also played the run well. The defense limited WAS to 26-90 on the ground. That’s their lowest rushing total since October.
Michael Clay’s unit didn’t have their best day. Will Shipley fumbled on the opening KOR. Jake Elliott missed 3 FG attempts.
OFFENSE
Jalen Hurts went 22-30-185 with 2 TDs. He was 7-40 on the ground, and that proved to be a big help for the offense. Hurts made a good throw to DeVonta for what should have been a TD, but it was dropped. They did score a TD a few plays later. Hurts made a terrific throw to Goedert for a TD in the second half. There was some pressure so Hurts moved up in the pocket and put great touch on a pass up high where DG could go get it.
Hurts did fumble once, but was able to recover it.
Saquon was 21-132-1. He ran hard on plays up the middle and made the most of what was available. He had a pair of great runs. The highlight was his 48-yard run in the fourth quarter. A defender got into the backfield and was ready to make the play. Barkley spun and cut to the left. He then used his speed to go flying up the field. That’s the Barkley we saw last year.
Barkley had a 12-yd TD run that was a combination of skill and great effort. There was a big hole initially, but then several guys had a chance to make the tackle. Barkley fought his way in for the score.
No clip more clearly shows the impact of the QB in the run game. The right of screen DT, DE, and LB are all taken out of the play by Jalen Hurts and then Saquon Barkley does the rest. What a run! pic.twitter.com/lt5Ulp1vQT
Tank Bigsby went 4-37-1. His highlight was a 22-yd TD run.
AJ Brown had a strong game, going 9-95. He did a good job of adding RAC yards. The offense is so much better when he’s able to catch a short throw and then run. DeVonta was 6-42-1. He caught a short TD. He also dropped a TD. He later drew a PI call in the end zone and that set up a TD for someone else. Jahan Dotson was 3-13.
Dallas Goedert went 3-32-1. He didn’t catch a pass in the first half, but was good in the second half. His run blocking was erratic.
The OL was up and down. WAS had 2 sacks and was only credited with 1 QB hit. That’s good protection. The run blocking was good at times. Cam Jurgens had some really good moments. He also missed a handful of blocks. I did think you could see his athleticism and that’s encouraging. Fred Johnson wiped out a TD pass with a holding call. Jordan Mailata was up and down with his run blocking.
Tyler Steen’s highlight was probably taking on half the WAS defense in a slap-fight scrum. Give him credit for sticking up for himself, but he did get ejected. If the game was still in question, that would have been bad.
DEFENSE
The pass rush wasn’t as good as I expected, but they did limit QB runs. Mariota and Johnson combined for 2 carries for -1 yards (kneel down at the end of the half). Jaelan Phillips had 1 tackle. He did get pressure on a couple of plays. One of them was Coop’s INT. Jalyx Hunt had 2 tackles and a QB hit. Nolan Smith had a QB hit.
Jordan Davis had a terrific game. He finished with 6 tackles and 2 TFLs. Davis used strength, quickness and agility to clog the middle of the line and limit running room. He was dominant at times, shedding blocks and just engulfing runners.
6) I know Washington scored after this, but phew. Jordan Davis. My goodness. He was dominant in this game, and the past month has definitely been the highest level I have ever seen him play. He is a constant force against the run and isn’t slowing down as the game goes on. pic.twitter.com/rUDpnJAi3C
Moro Ojomo had 3 tackles. He was disruptive. Byron Young had a solid showing. He had 3 tackles and a sack. He’s gotten steadily better this season. Old man Brandon Graham had a sack and was disruptive in his limited snaps.
Zack Baun led the team with 9 tackles. He didn’t make any big plays, but had a good game. Nakobe Dean got hurt after making a couple of early tackles. Jihaad Campbell took over for him and played well. He had 5 tackles and a TFL. I thought he did a good job of getting to the ball and putting people down. I didn’t see much rust.
Reed Blankenship was in on 3 tackles. On one of the plays he flew upfield and made the stop at the LOS. Marcus Epps had 2 tackles. Both guys were solid in coverage.
Cooper DeJean won NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance. He had 4 tackles, 4 PDs and a key INT.
Quinyon Mitchell was outstanding as usual. He broke up 2 passes and had 1 tackle. He broke on a pass and tried to pick it off. He showed good instincts on that play. Adoree Jackson had 4 tackles and was mostly good in coverage. He got burned by Terry McLaurin on a deep ball. The coverage wasn’t bad. Jackson just missed the ball. Kelee Ringo played late. He was called for PI, setting up the late TD. Ringo panicked and grabbed the receiver.
ST
Jake Elliott missed all 3 FG attempts. He pulled all 3. He did hit all 3 of his extra points. The last couple were down the middle. Sirianni can say he’s got confidence in Elliott, but I don’t see how all those misses don’t have some kind of effect on you.
Will Shipley had a rough day as KOR. He fumbled the ball on the opening KO. He later caught the ball just in the end zone and wasn’t sure if he should come out or not. He did and only got out to the 19. He did have a good tackle in coverage. Shipley’s long KOR was 26 yards.
Sydney Brown was very good in coverage. He had 2 tackles, including a great one on punt coverage.