Scouting the Chiefs

Posted: February 8th, 2023 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 1 Comment »

The Eagles were clearly better than the Giants in the divisional round and that showed. The Eagles were better than the Niners in the NFC title game. That advantage grew when both of their QBs were knocked out of the game. The Chiefs will be the toughest opponent for the Eagles this year. They went 14-3 in the regular season, have multiple elite players and have the best QB in the league.

This is the NFL at its best. You have two outstanding teams, two outstanding coaches and two star QBs. This should be a heckuva game, to quote one Andrew W. Ried.

KC is on quite a roll, this year and in recent history. They have been to five straight AFC Championship games. This will be the third Super Bowl for them in the past four seasons. They won it all in 2019. As for this season, the Chiefs closed out the regular season winning five games in a row and 10 of their last 11. They were challenged in both playoff games, but were able to make the winning plays and advance to the SB. This team is built to win. They expect to win. Beating them is a serious challenge.

COACHES

Andy Reid is a Hall of Fame coach and probably the best gameplanner in the league. He leads a veteran coaching staff that does a great job. They are incredibly versatile and creative on offense. In past years, the Chiefs loved big plays. This year they had to adjust after trading Tyreek Hill and dealing with some injuries. The Chiefs did that and didn’t miss a beat. They still had the best offense in football. Reid is creative with personnel, formations and plays. He uses motion to get advantages. KC does a great job of putting the defense in a bind with how to play them.

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Steve Spagnuolo runs the defense. He’s been the DC for a pair of SB winners (2007 Giants, 2019 Chiefs). Spags learned a lot about defense from Jim Johnson when they were together with the Eagles. Spags loves to blitz and play aggressively. In the past he played a lot of man coverage. This year he’s shifted to more zone coverage. In recent weeks, Spags has played a lot of Dime defense and it has worked well.

The Chiefs finished 17th in defensive DVOA (15th in run, 20th in pass). They are vulnerable, but could be a tough matchup for the Eagles because of what they like to do (more on that in the game preview).

OFFENSE

Make no mistake about it, Patrick Mahomes is the Chiefs. We can talk about Reid or the other star players, but Mahomes is what makes that team special. By any metric, he’s an elite QB. If you’re old school and like wins, Mahomes is 64-16 and headed to his third Super Bowl. Stats? He has the highest career passer rating in NFL history. If you prefer more advanced numbers, he led the league in EPA this year by a healthy margin.

You’ll probably get sick of me using the word “special”, but it’s the best way to describe Mahomes. He is the best pocket passer in the league. He’s also the best improvisational QB. That is mind-blowing when you think about it. We’re combining Randall Cunningham with Tom Brady. Some of the stuff Mahomes does reminds me of Fran Tarkenton, spinning and reversing field before hitting a receiver for a big gain. Mahomes is even more creative as a passer. We see him do stuff that is straight off a playground. And he’s good at it.

(You’ve seen plenty of Mahomes in action so I figured some Tarkenton would be a better choice.)

Mahomes is able to do this because he’s physically gifted, but he’s also incredibly smart. He has amazing awareness, in terms of the pass rush and also where his receivers are. I can’t tell you how hard it is to run around, at times with your back to the line of scrimmage, and still know where everyone is. He’s a football savant.

Maybe the most impressive thing about Mahomes is that he’ll do whatever is needed. Carson Wentz fell in love with big plays and would struggle to move the ball with short throws. Donovan McNabb let some people get in his head about running and wouldn’t use his mobility as much. Mahomes doesn’t care. He will throw checkdowns or bombs. He’ll run. He’ll sit in the pocket. Mahomes wants to move the ball, score points and win. He doesn’t care how it happens. He doesn’t let outside noise affect him. He just figures out what needs to be done and then does that at a very high level.

Special dude.

Special QB.

*****

Don’t be too shocked when I tell you KC doesn’t run the ball a lot. Big Red has changed some of what he does since leaving Philly, but his love of the passing game is still the same. They were 25th in the league in rushing attempts this year.

Rookie Isiah Pacheco turned out to be a great pick. He averaged 4.9 ypc and ran for 830 yards. He’s interesting because he’s a physical, downhill runner, but also has outstanding speed. If he gets into the open, he can deliver a big play.

Veteran Jerick McKinnon is more of a pass-catcher. He caught 56 passes and 9 TDs this year. He’ll be a tough matchup for Eagles LBs. While Reid doesn’t run enough, he does know how to use his RBs to get good production from them.

*****

Tyreek Hill is lounging by the pool in Miami, but KC still has some good receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the wideouts, going 78-933-3. He’s your chain-mover. Marquez Valdes-Scantling only caught 42 passes, but is more of a big play guy, averaging over 16 yards per catch. Kadarius Toney is the wild card. He only caught 14 passes after coming over in a trade, but Toney has big time ability. He is very dangerous after the catch. Justin Watson only caught 15 passes, but did average 21 yards per catch.

In the past, Mahomes fed the ball to his star wideout, Hill. Now he spreads it around. Mahomes will play the hot hand, depending on what the defense is giving him.

The key to the passing game is TE Travis Kelce. He caught 110 passes and 12 TDs this year. Kelce is the best TE in football (but is he the best Kelce?). He is a great route-runner, which helps him to get open on a regular basis. He can put moves on DBs to get separation and give Mahomes a target. Kelce has good hands. He can make some tough catches. He is dynamic once the ball is in his hands. Kelce is quick and agile. He’s got the speed to really go if he has room to run. He’s also strong and isn’t going down on first contact. He’s headed for Canton when he’s done. Dealing with Kelce will be a headache for the Eagles defense.

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The Chiefs like to use 12 and 13 personnel on a regular basis. Noah Gray is the #2 TE and caught 28 passes this year. He’s a good athlete and solid receiver.

*****

KC has a good offensive line, but they aren’t great. The OTs are vulnerable. RT Andrew Wylie led the league in sacks allowed with 9. He was second in pressures allowed. The OL ahead of him? Chiefs LT Orlando Brown. In their defense, KC did throw a ton of passes. Still, those OTs can be beaten. The Eagles have a major advantage witih Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat.

The line is much better on the inside. LG Joe Thuney will have a tough matchup with Javon Hargrave. C Creed Humphrey has been outstanding in his short time in the NFL. RG Trey Smith is a player to watch. He has a real nasty streak and will pound on any defender he can.

*****

DEFENSE

Chris Jones is the guy who makes it all happen for the Chiefs defense. He’s 6-6, 310 and has an explosive get-off. Jones will play DT and DE. They like to move him around to he can see what matchup is most working the best on a given day. Jones led KC with 15.5 sacks, 17 TFLs and 29 QB hits. He is a game-wrecker.

Derrick Nnadi and Khalen Saunders are the other key DTs. Nnadi is more of a run stuffer. Jones is athletic and has some playmaking ability. Neither is anywhere close to Jones.

Frank Clark and George Karlaftis are the edge rushers. They combined for 11 sacks and 24 QB hits. Clark is the veteran and is capable of having a big game. Karlaftis is a rookie. He’s got a great motor and will chase the ball relentlessly. Veteran Carlos Dunlap is a good backup and has outstanding size. He had 4 sacks. Michael Danna came off the bench and had 5 sacks this year.

The Chiefs finished second in the league with 55 sacks. The DL accounted for 40 of them so that group knows how to get to the QB.

*****

Nick Bolton has led the team in tackles the last two years. He evolved into more of a playmaker this year, finishing with 2 INTs and 2 sacks. He has good speed and covers a lot of ground. Bolton is instinctive and always seems to be around the ball.

Willie Gay is the other LB. He’s a good athlete and playmaker. Gay had an INT and 2.5 sacks this year.

*****

If you’ve watched the Chiefs in recent years, you’re used to names like Tyrann Mathieu, Daniel Sorensen and Bashaud Breeland. No more. Those guys are gone and several rookies emerged. There is a key holdover, L’Jarius Sneed. The veteran CB led the team in INTs, PDs and FFs. He was second on the team in tackles and added 3.5 sacks. He is a playmaker.

Sneed suffered a concussion in the AFC title game, but he’s out of the protocol now and will play on Sunday.

Rookie CB Trent McDuffie has really come on as the season has gone along. He had 7 PDs and is a physical player. Rookie Jaylen Watson started 6 games this year. He finished with 6 PDs and an INT. Rookie Joshua Williams is also a capable starter (and he’s from my hometown).

Justin Reid and Juan Thornhill are veteran safeties who can cover and make plays. Rookie Bryan Cook will see time in certain sets.

*****

KC normally has good STs. That wasn’t the case this year. Rick Gosselin had them dead last in his rankings. Football Outsiders has them 19th in DVOA.

Punter Tommy Townsend is an All Pro and averaged 50 yards per punt. PK Harrison Butker had a down year. He was only 3 for 7 from 50-59 yards. He also missed 3 extra points.

None of the returners stood out.

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One Comment on “Scouting the Chiefs”

  1. 1 The Linc – Jason Kelce’s mom doesn’t think her son is ready to retire - Balance Sportscast said at 1:13 PM on February 9th, 2023:

    […] Scouting the Chiefs – Iggles BlitzKC has a good offensive line, but they aren’t great. The OTs are vulnerable. RT Andrew Wylie led the league in sacks allowed with 9. He was second in pressures allowed. The OL ahead of him? Chiefs LT Orlando Brown. In their defense, KC did throw a ton of passes. Still, those OTs can be beaten. The Eagles have a major advantage witih Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat. The line is much better on the inside. LG Joe Thuney will have a tough matchup with Javon Hargrave. C Creed Humphrey has been outstanding in his short time in the NFL. RG Trey Smith is a player to watch. He has a real nasty streak and will pound on any defender he can. […]