Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry
Posted: May 14th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 123 Comments »We’ve talked quite a bit about Brandon Graham this offseason. Is he a SAM or Predator? Is he a starter or backup? Trade him or build around him?
If the Eagles were playing a pure 4-3, Graham would be the LDE and there would be no questions. For better or worse, that won’t be happening. The Eagles will switch between the 3-4 and the 4-3 Under. Graham’s future is now a mystery.
The simple case for Graham is that the Eagles drafted him 13th overall back in 2010 and saw him as someone to build the defense around. Even this offseason, Howie Roseman referred to Graham as a cornerstone player. Graham is coming off his best season. He played in all 16 games. He had 5.5 sacks, 3 TFLs, 2 FF, and 38 total tackles, all career highs. Pro Football Focus said Graham had the “best pass rushing productivity of any defensive player”. They didn’t stop there. PFF’s number crunching had Graham #1 in the league at drawing penalties. Remember that drawing penalties is good, getting them is bad. All of this sounds pretty darn good.
The simple case against Graham is more complicated. There are no simple numbers to tell the story. We will start with size and fit. Graham is 6013. That means he is 6-1 and 3/8. Chip Kelly prefers tall players. Graham also has short arms so he can’t make up for the lack of height in that area as some others can. Graham is now moving to linebacker, a position he hasn’t played full time in college or the NFL. Graham has more experience at DT than LB. So Graham isn’t Kelly’s ideal size and doesn’t have the experience to play his new position.
What about all the good stats? As we all know, stats can be misleading. I decided to go re-watch several of Graham’s games from 2012. I wanted to take a fresh look at him and think about his fit in the new scheme.
While Graham was productive as a pass rusher last year, no one did anything special for him. He was almost always single-blocked. There were plenty of plays where TEs were assigned to block him. Compare this to the treatment that Trent Cole and Jason Babin got. Offenses gameplanned for them, in terms of playcalling and blocking.
Graham’s 2 best games were against Cincinnati and the second Dallas meeting. He went against a struggling Doug Free and Andre Smith. While Smith is a dominant run blocker, he is a mediocre pass blocker, which is part of why he sat on the free agent market so long this year. In those 2 games, Graham had 12 tackles, 4 sacks, and a FF. Take those games away and we’re talking about a different season.
I watched those games and Graham was terrific. I also watched the Tampa game. Graham had 2 solo tackles. He flushed Josh Freeman with a good inside move, which led to a sack by Cox. Beyond that, Graham was somewhat quiet.
We can’t get caught up in numbers. We must put Graham into the proper context. Just how good is he?
The biggest thing I look for in a pass rusher is whether the player is explosive. Graham isn’t. He wins with good burst and great leverage. He is very good with the bull rush. There are some plays when he’s able to get his hands in the chest of the blocker and jolt him. Graham can then get by the blocker. Graham uses the rip move very well, which ties in to his use of leverage. Graham tried spin moves in a couple of games and had mixed results.
One of Graham’s best assets is his motor. He doesn’t give up when initially blocked. He will fight to disengage from the blocker and then will chase the ball all over the field. He makes hustle plays.
Graham is a talented player and had a good season in 2012. That said, any talk of him being a crucial defensive player is premature. Graham showed good flashes last year. He must show that he can be a regular force in 2013. The coaches have him slated to be the backup SAM for now. Graham doesn’t have the cover skills or size for that role, but he’s there for now. Trent Cole is the Predator. Cole is coming off his worst season, but he has a terrific track record aside from 2012.
We’ll see how things end up in September, but the fact that Cole is projected ahead of Graham for now is very interesting. I know some of Brandon’s strongest supporters think Kelly and Bill Davis are either nuts or stupid. I think Kelly and Davis watched the tape. They saw Graham doing some good things, but not playing to the level that the PFF stats would lead you to believe.
I hope Graham emerges this year as a stud pass rusher and a guy that offenses have to fear every week. Nothing would make me happier. Sometimes I get accused of being anti-Graham, but that is completely untrue. I’ve been a big fan of his since he was at Michigan. Anyone who watched him in college loved him. He was a machine. Here is something I wrote back in March of 2010 (pre-draft):
“Brandon Graham is a player we all love. The question is how good he’ll be in the NFL. Brandon was great for Michigan this year and then looked dominant at the Senior Bowl. One concern I have is that he played in a system that allowed him to be on the move a lot. He slanted to the inside more than most DEs. That worked great for him, but NFL teams won’t always let their guys just attack upfield. I do have concerns about whether he is best suited for LB or DE. He’s more fast than quick. He makes a ton of hustle plays. He lacks ideal height or long arms. That all sounds like a LB.
4-3 teams have to really be thinking hard about Graham. He’s such a good player that you don’t want to overthink this and get lost in the measurables. The bottom line is that when you put on the Michigan tape you’ll see #55 playing in the backfield a lot of the game. That is the most important thing. I hope wherever Graham goes that he plays for a creative defensive coordinator who will adjust to Brandon’s skill set. He’s not a standard player, either in results or style.”
I feel pretty confident that Graham will get a chance to really show what he can do. His ACL injury is ancient history. Graham is coming off a good season. His confidence has to be pretty high. The new coaches may question Graham’s fit in the LB role, but there will be some situations where the Eagles run a 4-man line and Graham can get in a traditional DE spot. The Eagles would love to see Graham have a strong season and prove that he’s the disruptive force they hoped for on draft day in 2010.
One reason Graham may not be the Predator is that he has played mainly at LDE in college and the NFL. Graham is used to going up against RTs. There is generally a big difference in beating a RT and a LT. Graham is a physical run defender and plenty of run plays do come to the right side (LOLB/LDE). I think he’ll do a good job of setting the edge.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Graham play this year. I hope he tears it up and has a great year.
* * * * *
While watching Graham, I also checked out Vinny Curry. You could really see that Curry was a rookie. He was thinking a lot out there and it led to him being hesitant on some plays and not attacking enough. You could also see that he must play stronger and more physically. There were a few times when TEs were able to get the best of him. Jason Witten downblocked on Curry and put him on the ground. It was funny to see that since Brandon Graham ate TEs up when they tried to block him. He used Witten as his own personal blocking sled and drove Jason backward regularly.
The point here isn’t that Curry is weak. He was just a rookie that was completely unsure of himself. That led to him being cautious rather than aggressively engaging blockers and attacking upfield. There were a few plays when Curry did let loose and he was impressive. The raw skills are there.
I must say that after watching him I think he should be playing LB and not 5-tech DE. Jerry Azzinaro coached him for a year at Marshall and knows what he’s doing, but to my eyes, he just looked more like a 3-4 LB. For now, I have put my total trust in Chip and the staff.
Geoff Mosher mentioned to me on Twitter that Curry was the backup RDE at practice on Monday. I think Curry will find some role on this team. He did everything at Marshall. He’s even got a bit of DT experience. Curry has the frame that Kelly likes. Now it is just a matter of finding the right spot for him.
* * * * *
I watched a bit of Phillip Hunt. I’m really curious to know what Kelly thinks of him. Hunt is a shade under 6-1 (6005). He goes about 260 pounds. He never got on the field regularly under Jim Washburn. Hunt has shown good flashes, but has a total of 3 sacks in 2 years. Kelly wouldn’t have kept Hunt around if he didn’t think there was at least some chance that he could make the team. Hunt will need to look very good on STs and be disruptive on defense.
_
What do you think of Curry as a 3-tech on passing downs? As long as the DL was going to sell out to get the QB, you could move Cox to a shade nose spot, or Curry could simply come in when Cox was gassed (very few DTs play 80%+ snaps, and we know there will be more snaps than usual to go around). In this kind of role, would his lighter frame be as much of a concern?
I would definitely be willing to try Curry at 3-tech in the Nickel. Darren Howard was a good interior rusher for us with a similar build.
With Graham, Curry, Soap, and Boykin all playing key but defined roles it’s starting to feel like this defense is going to be made up of 15-16 “starters.” Any concern that the players won’t receive enough individual attention, or that roster limitations are going to make this idea a flop instead of an innovation?
I would think that having 15-16 defined starters on defense is precisely what we need in converting to Chip’s hybrid scheme. In the next few drafts, we should certainly be focusing on defensive players with versatility, which would cut that number down. We know Chip likes having players he can keep on the field and serve several roles. But absent those pieces, expect a heavy rotation of personel and formations this year as we figure out our strengths.
My only concern is that Chip’s fast paced offense is designed precisely to take advantage of defenses that require substitution to function, and the NFL is such a copycat league that his offensive innovation will be the death of our defense (at least this year).
that…tempered my optimism concerning our young, high-round pass rushers. The more I think about it…Howie was full of it with the corner stone comment…if you want to make graham a corner stone of your defense for years to come…you play a 4-3. Logic makes me uneasy, I’m going back to blind hope now, thanks Tommy.
But seriously, excellent article. A very honest piece based on good old fashioned scouting.
I do wonder how much of Howie’s comment was pre-draft rhetoric. If you praise Graham, teams may think you’re less inclined to go for a LB.
Well he must of believed his own rhetoric, because WE didn’t draft a single LB. On the other hand, Ireland clearly didn’t buy it when trading up to spot 3. Colour me confused with that explanation.
The fact that no linebackers were at the top of the eagles’ draft board whenever they were on the clock is why they didn’t draft one, not what their opinion of Graham is. I wouldn’t be surprised if the comment was a smokescreen and it didn’t work. Dion was a really interesting prospect and the film doesn’t really support the idea that Graham is a foundational player.
It wasn’t just the draft where we ignored OLB! Further, with 3 picks in round 7, they could have addressed OLB with a graded player if they wished. There must have been some sense of security at the position in the eyes of the staff, more so when you consider that it looks like Curry won’t be an OLB.
You also have to consider that they may have had (and might still have) sufficient questions about the OLB situation where they didn’t want to add a rookie to take reps away from guys they wanted to evaluate in a year that pretty much everyone will give them a pass on, final record-wise at least, as long as the on-field product is interesting. I’ll be happy to watch a defense where the number of PBU’s is greater than pointed fingers, as will most fans. Thus, why take a project at a position where you don’t know what you have and what you have could be good or may need a 1st-round talent added to the group? I also think that Davis may have said that Gocong would be better SAM depth (if he signs) than anyone they could get in the 7th, based on his time as the Browns’ LB coach.
The Eagles did sign Connor Barwin after that comment. Also looked at Butler and Scott.
When you think you need a position like this, you end up making mistakes. Whether they feel good about the people in place or not. But the team shouldn’t feel too bad about the position. Quite a few people in place could turn out to be at least adequate.
Roseman made that comment in February (pre-Combine). The draft was in late April. Howie had no idea how things would play out.
You make that statement in case it could help you…not because it has a definitive meaning at that very moment.
Reading Tommy’s article, it is starting to look like Graham isn’t a fit for this D. He was such a beast at Michigan that I was excited to have him as an Eagle… at least as LDE in the 4-3. At this point, I’m wondering what his trade value might be. Tommy, do you think a 4-3 team would give up a 3rd for him? Or do you think they try him at LB for a year due to lack of depth?
momah highlight tape, momah highlight tape!!!! Sorry but i must motivate…
It still boils down to the fact that it will take more than one year for this defense to get in shape. We may end up getting rid of Grahm Curry and Cole next year but that’s ok. We’ll get the players we need. I’m still worried about safety and the possible lack of consistent pass rush.
Graham said he was playing in the 270s (268 at the combine) but is working to get down to 260 lbs – so the two issues will be whether the knee can continue to progress (improved lateral agility) and whether at 260 lbs he can be faster than the 4.7 he put up at 268 lbs. If so, they can live with his learning pains at SLB where he can be a dominating pass rusher who can whip TEs and force RTs to reach for him. The guy he most closely resembles is another Michigan DE, Woodley, who has had a pretty good career in Pittsburgh.
Curry is being bulked up to the 280s, and I think there’s one drill that explains that – he had a 4.44 short shuttle, while all the LBs, including Cole, Graham, Hunt ran under 4.30. Short shuttle is a test of cutting ability. Note he did very well on the cone drill, which is correlated with success for DTs, more of a test of agility and balance. As a LB, he’s a guy with average to below average speed who can’t explode tot he ball, as a “3”, he’s an undersized DT with length, strength and agility who can work through gaps.
nice incite
I agree that Austinfan’s comment showed a lot of insight.
I really don’t want to see them move Graham to SAM..Last year was the first time in his career that he got some continuity. I don’t want to screw with that. let him build off the year he had, leaving him at predator(which is not very different than what he did last year.
I think Curry cold make a decent to good 3-tech. The only problem is I also think Cox could be a monster there going one on one against guards. I do think Curry could see the field more though if Graham if moved and we need someone to go 4 down in pash rushing situations.
From a couple of topics ago: Kelly mentioned that Cole dropped into coverage under McDermott, so therefore and up until his injury the same would apply to Graham. Any mention from your ’10 DGRs on how he did? Alternatively, anyone with All-22 should be able to go back and look.
Cole never looked good in coverage, but he didn’t do much in the way of coverage training. He was a DE that was simply expected to get in the passing lanes and do his best.
As a LB, he’ll be taught how to cover. Expectations will be different.
Hey Tommy, when watching Graham’s 2012 tape do you feel he may have lost a bit of speed or agility from when he came out because of the microfracture surgery? Last season I remember you saying somewhere that the procedure may have affected his athleticism.
I don’t think he’s the same guy we drafted. That doesn’t mean he can’t be good. Microfracture surgery is nasty stuff. I doubt he’s got the same agility as he did in 2010.
I think Graham will start at predator…Why disrespect one of our true Eagles Vets in Cole, on May 13th, when we are just learning the new schemes and play book?…Veterans like Cole and Vick(who I don’t want to be our QB), should be starting off as the starters..if you are going to bring them back, don’t embarrass them this early for no reason….I always thought the plan was Barwin at Predator and Dion at SAM….It’s obviously time to figure out plan B..
…..
While agree that Graham is not yet the player we need him to be, I do think him and Cox have the potential to form a FORCE on the weak side where it’s going to be tough to double team those two….Inwould really worry if we were depending on Graham as our SAM, but I’m anxious to see what he can do from the predator Role….Curry is going to need a year or two until we can really figure out what we have in him
Any word on how Geathers has looked thus far? I know the size is there, but I do not know much about his skill set as a 3-4 DE.
Not a word. You can’t tell much about a 5-tech DE in a no-contact practice.
It’s funny to me that a few unfulfilling years in a 4-3 defense could re-write the script on Graham, who when drafted was discussed as a better option at 3-4 LB. To me, his strengths last season seem like they could translate well to the role of SAM (minus obvious question marks about coverage ability).
Like you mentioned, Graham is strong at the POA, and while he’s rarely going to blow by athletic OT’s, engaging them and shedding blocks should be a strength of his. He plays with supreme leverage, and if you give him a 2-step head-start on his beautiful bull rush, it could be downright devastating. With Cox able to attack from the interior, and Cole/Barwin bringing heat from the opposite edge, I would be completely happy with Graham having low sack numbers, but blowing up running plays in the backfield.
Being stout against the run would bring out the versatility of the interior of our defense, and we could be much more aggressive in blitzing our ILBs, both of which have shown glimpses of success with blitzes in the past. We know that we will have an attacking defense, so the pressure will come from somewhere. I wouldn’t be concerned if Graham doesn’t shoulder much of that load this year.
Looking back on his Michigan tape, Tommy, were there many examples of Graham playing in space, and/or covering TEs/RBs? That obviously remains the boldfaced question mark when projecting him to his new role.
I’ll touch on this in a post. Have to dig up some old notes.
Tommy’s also mentioned before that his microfracture surgery may have taken the agility and quick-twitch lateral movement away from Graham that he showed pre-injury, which would account for why so many writers have flipped the script on Graham’s ability to play LB.
Re: Speaking of Drafting LBs
T-Law:
Was there another player in the 2013 draft who compared favorably to Dion Jordan. I mean height, weight, agility, etc.
I’m assuming here (as you have, I think) that DJ was Chip Kelly’s preferred choice at No. 4. Jordan has the length, height, weight, ability to move in space, and raw pass-rushing talent that would seem to be exactly what Kelly wants,.
So was there anyone else out there this year close to Jordan in terms of what you think Kelly wants in his “Ideal OLB”?
By the way, you may remember that I asked before the draft if Chipper may have goofed by giving an honest assessment of DJ. You wrote it off to inexperience.
I wonder if we’d have gotten DJ had Kelly said, “he’s a medical reject.” (I’m betting the answer’s no. But it’s that time of year to work in a Buddy Ryan comment.)
There were some players who could have been of interest, but each had an issue to scare you off. Michael Buchanan, for instance, was tall and athletic, but had a bad year. He slid in the draft.
Jordan rated highly in just about every area.
I don’t think anything Chip said helped DJ. Draftniks were talking about Jordan last May as a freakish player to watch. NFL scouts were all over him all year long.
It would have been nice if Chip had said to the media that “Dion Jordan never had any legal issues at Oregon, at least in terms of convictions.”
“He’s never been charged — err, um, I mean convicted — of a felony.”
Perfect. You’re hired for next offseason.
I thought Graham’s best moment last year was the strip sack and fumble recovery he had against New Orleans. It came when Norlans was driving to score again (they were up a touchdown at that point I think) and were either inside or just outside the red zone. At the time I thought it might have been a turning point in the game because it was such a big play but we all know that the 2012 Eagles weren’t allowed to have nice things.
Also Graham barely got on the field until Washburn got canned, its easy to see him as a 8 or 9 sack guy last year if he had been a regular starter the whole time.
There are two major problems with the “Also” part of your statement. As we’ve seen with Cole, increased snaps doesn’t necessarily equate to increased productivity as the season and/or game wears on. You have to factor in the negatives of increased playing time with the positives, namely fatigue and greater exposure to injury. Secondly, Tommy’s analysis of Graham’s tape makes the assumption that with increased reps against better talent Graham would have had more sacks questionable at best. Projecting a guy’s stats to increase as his snaps increase is only a logical argument if his stats come evenly (more or less anyway) across all contexts. With Graham having most of his sacks come against arguably the two worst pass blockers he faced all season, I’m hesitant to think that your logic holds.
That being said, I’m not anti-Graham. I just hope that he finds a role as our primary pass rusher this year when we go to our 4-2-5 or 4-1-6 and we don’t tire him out playing LB when he’s not really suited to it. I’m much more confident with Trent playing Predator in the base, then having Barwin at RDE (where most of his sacks in 2011 came from if you have seen Jimmy’s breakdown of that season) and Graham subbing for Cole but lining up at LDE. That way we have solid pass-rushers that don’t forfeit quality run defense the way Babin did last year.
He didn’t get 0 sacks against all other OT’s. I don’t think its unreasonable to believe that he wouldn’t have had more sacks if he had been playing more over the first 10 games.
Right. In fourteen other games of eligibility (I’m not sure at 2:38am if he played all 16) he had 1.5 sacks. That’s just over .1 sacks/game. I’m sure his usage varied a lot during the season. My point was that assuming his statistics would almost double is a little ambitious given the data available. I hope he does well, and I would love to see him as our primary threat on the outside on Nickel downs. I just think that his injury history and variable production based on opposing talent makes projecting his game across a whole season tough.
Isn’t it possible that Graham is getting looks at SAM primarily to see how he handles dropping back in pass coverage? I would think that’s the most valuable use of his time in OTAs (due to lack of contact).
Absolutely…too many people think this is an intense competition…the only players competing right now are the ones with a slim chance of making the team…everyone else is learning the new systems and schemes…For the players that are a lock to make the team, all they can accomplish from OTAs is giving coaches some preconceived notions about you you before camp and make you the starter when camp begins…Right now it’s more important that players learn…training camp/preseason is when the battles really begin
In other news: Rolando McClain is retiring from the NFL… At the age of 23!
Talk about waste of talent!
Ridiculous waste of talent
Wow. I thought McClain could be a star MLB. So gifted.
He’s incredibly lucky that he was drafted prior to the new CBA, otherwise he wouldn’t be able to pull this type of move.
I’m shocked he’s willing to give up the paychecks at that age. Unless he’s been very smart with his money (while simultaneously being very stupid with every other facet of his life) he might not be at a “set for life” kind of situation.
great point, so I’ll go ahead and say he’ll remain retired at age 23, until he goes broke at age 24. He’ll be back unless he’s going to jail.
I read something like, he was forced to retire, or to get cut…or something of the sort. can anyone clear that up?
anyone as DISGUSTED as I am after just hearing Vick live with Missanelli? recap:
1) Vick gets pissed off when asking him about reading defense, and says that people who thinks he struggle with it know nothing about football.
2) Rest assure Philly fans..after running with the ball a million times, just yesterday Chip finally taught him how to carry the ball..Just like last year he finally learned how to slide…
3) He has taken LeSean under his wing and is trying to mentor him..
….
I really wish I haven’t heard that interview..It really messed wit my mode today..Everywhere we look, there is change, yet we brought back the biggest liability.
Eh, if Vick’s wrong about that first point, I wouldn’t worry about it. He won’t be playing for long if at all.
1) Vick was very good against the Blitz and made several perfect audibles, so yea I can see what he means
2) what do you want him to say, that he will continue to fumble?
3) How is this a bad thing? Vick is one the people you wants to mentor a young kid who is getting in trouble
I think its clear your hate for Vick makes you pissed no matter what he says.
No, he doesn’t get to say that after admitting 3 years ago to the world that he never took the studying part of the game serious
GEagle – I’m with you on Vick’s comments.
On the “sexy chick” stuff, though, I look at it differently. I don’t think Chip thinks he can change him. All of his past coaches did, but I don’t think that’s going on here. I think it’s more what Chip has been saying all along. When Chip was hired and they started their planning, they decided they did not want to trade for Smith or Flynn. They also figured they would not be drafting a QB in the first round – or that if they were, the guy could be gone before their pick. That meant they couldn’t be sure they’d get a QB they liked at all. Certainly not one who could start in 2013. At that point, they had Vick, Foles, & Edwards. They probably thought they would be replacing Edwards with Dixon. Had they cut Vick, they would have been a Foles ACL injury away from a Dixon & nobody QB depth chart. That made it a no-brainer to keep Vick at the bargain price, which is what Chip said.
At this point, though, Chip has 5 QBs. I believe him when he says the best man will win. They’re going to coach Vick up, but it’s going to be just like the other QBs. And they’re not going to invest in his potential. They won’t keep him because of what he might develop into. Vick has to fix himself, and he has to do it immediately. He also has to somehow stay healthy. If he can’t do both of those things; if Foles or Barkley or Dixon moves the offense better than he does, they’ll cut him. (Can anyone see him here if he’s not the starting QB? Does anyone think he’s here if his 2013 pre-season is a repeat of his 2012 pre-season?)
Very similar, in some ways, to the Jets situation. Why cut Sanchez prematurely? If Smith isn’t ready or Gerrard is hurt (and then retires), they may still need him. If Sanchez shows up this year and plays lights out, that’s a win for the Jets. If he doesn’t, someone else plays.
Well, I guess we should be happy that he finally did learn how to carry the ball, lol.
I hope Brandon Graham gets a fair shot to beat out Connor Barwin for the SAM spot. Barwin is Ferrari without a steering wheel when it comes to passrushing. I’ll take Graham’s blue-collar production over Barwin’s physical superiority any day of the week.
Vinny Curry, if he’s going to have any future on this team, needs to become the backup 3T, and a situational passrusher. I’d say it’s a waste of a second round pick, but considering the Seahawks spent a first rounder on Bruce Irvin to be a situational passrusher, maybe times are changing. I’m hoping he’s added some strength with those muscles.
I exect Barwin and Graham to both START
Casey was on CSN with Derrick Gunn basically saying he’s only being used as TE here that it was totally different and easier than what he had to do in Houston.
“Chip and the staff” ….are you going Bruce Lee on us?
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