Roster Prediction
Posted: August 23rd, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 125 Comments »There are two preseason games in the books and Training Camp is over. We now have a pretty good idea of who will make the Eagles final roster. There are always surprises because the coaches have their favorites and the organization loves to keep young guys whenever possible. There are also some injury situations which can affect decisions.
All that said, here is what I think will happen for now.
Offense
QB – 2 – Carson Wentz, Nick Foles
RB – 4 – LeGarrette Blount, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood, Donnel Pumphrey
WR – 6 – Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, Marcus Johnson, Bryce Treggs
TE – 4 – Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, Trey Burton, Billy Brown
OL – 9 – Jason Peters, Isaac Seumalo, Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks, Lane Johnson, H. Vaitai, Dillon Gordon, Dallas Thomas, S. Wisniewski
Defense
DE – 5 – Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, Vinny Curry, Chris Long, Steven Means
DT – 4 – Fletcher Cox, Tim Jernigan, Destiny Vaeao, Justin Hamilton
LB – 6 – Jordan Hicks, Nigel Bradham, Mychal Kendricks, Najee Goode, Joe Walker, Nate Gerry
S – 5 – Malcolm Jenkins, Rodney McLeod, Corey Graham, Terrence Brooks, Chris Maragos
CB – 5 – Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, Patrick Robinson, Rasul Douglas, Aaron Grymes
STs
P – Donnie Jones
K – Caleb Sturgis
LS – Jon Dorenbos
Practice Squad
Greg Ward
Shelton Gibson
Corey Clement
Elijah Qualls
Alex McCalister
Tyler Orlosky
C.J. Smith
Aaron Neary
Don Cherry
Dane Evans
*****
Let’s break this down. QB is obvious. McGloin stinks so you stick with Wentz and Foles.
Any talk of cutting Blount seems crazy. Put him behind the starting OL and let’s see what he does when games count. The Pumphrey vs Clement debate is tricky. Clement has been more impressive this summer. But you have to think big picture as we analyze this. Clement is a standard type of RB. You find guys like him anywhere and everywhere. Pumphrey is a player the Eagles had high expectations for and wanted to used in a variety of packages. My guess is that they’ll keep him around and give him time to develop. Clement hasn’t been so compelling that I think he’ll be claimed if cut. Put him on the PS and use him if there are injuries that open a spot for him.
For me, WR boils down to Treggs vs Ward. Treggs was terrific in the preseason opener. He also has the speed the Eagles like. Ward is a player for the future. I’ve heard the team really likes him based on what they’ve seen in practice. He hasn’t been so great in games that other teams are likely to snatch him up. Some team could take a flier on him, but Ward hasn’t stood out in a dramatic way.
Billy Brown has shown enough this summer that I think the Eagles have to keep him. Brent Celek is likely in his final season and Trey Burton will be a free agent. We’ll have to wait and see about his future. Brown shows good potential so he’s a guy you don’t want to risk some other team stealing away.
The starting OL is set. Then you have Wiz, Big V and Gordon as the key backups. Things are more open after that and might be decided in the last two weeks. I had Thomas make it over Warmack because I think he’s been more consistent this summer. Plus, he’s cheaper. It is possible the Eagles will keep Warmack because he’s more experienced and is a good run blocker. Plus there is the Jeff Stoutland connection. Josh Andrews has been hurt this summer so I’m guessing he’s gone. Aaron Neary and Tyler Orlosky need to really shine the next two games to make a run at a spot. Taylor Hart is interesting, but a project.
The DL isn’t that complicated. I think the DEs are set. The top three DTs are set. Will Justin Hamilton be #4? I think so. Beau Allen might not be back until mid-September so someone will get cut when he’s activated. We’ll have to wait and see who is healthy and playing well at that time to figure out what happens.
Last year the Eagles had Bryan Braman and Kamu Grugier-Hill as backup LBs and key STers. Walker and Gerry could take their roles this year. Neither is a guy you necessarily want starting at LB now, but they have shown potential and look to be worth developing. It is possible the team could add a veteran to replace either Walker or Gerry. This is another case where the final two games will be crucial.
The only question for me at Safety is Jaylen Watkins vs Terrence Brooks. There is no question that Brooks has had the more impressive summer. Watkins has better man-cover skills and offers S/CB versatility. That could help his cause. Brooks has played well all offseason so I’m guessing they keep him.
I’m projecting Robinson as the slot. Ron Brooks gets cut. C.J. Smith too. You can put him on the PS. Grymes is good depth in the slot and can help on STs.
_
First of all… need some time to digest this.
I worry about having ANOTHER catching and not blocking TE. PS him.
might be a good idea to keep him on the roster if they want Trey Burton to walk next year.
they are not doing a good job of getting a replacement for Celek on the roster…
Wondering what it will cost to keep Burton (who I think is a valuable player, both on O and ST) next year. Celek counts $4M against cap this year, so it’s possible you could structure a new deal for Burton that’s less than or equal to that so the cap $ is a wash. Of course, what’s available for Burton may depend upon whether or not they can lock up AJ and/or Jerrigan long term, both of which are (rightfully) more of a priority than Trey.
Focus on you and your financial health rather than these players and team garbage.
There are more important things to worry about like repealing and replacing a failed Obamacare, tax cuts, a wall, and the overvalued stock market. Sports in the end is meaningless.
Speaking of spending your time more wisely…
I don’t live for the Eagles, I view it as entertainment only. Too many of these commenters make it their lives.
I think the other Brooks makes it instead.
We’re all so used to ranking players by ability and projecting roster spots accordingly. Then project the last cuts for the PS. Nice to have a more clinical approach to evaluation that addresses exactly what the players contribution will be if kept and who would be unclaimed and eligible for the PS if cut. Who else has Brown on the 53 with Ward & Smith on the PS. Thanks for the perspective, Tommy.
Pumphrey hasn’t shown much at all and still looks too small to play in the NFL.
No way they cut him after moving up in the 4th round to get him and for a guy like Clement. If Clement had a noteworthy skill or was a special teams contributor, them maybe.
I hope they cut Womack too. He has shown very little and reports are he didn’t good in camp. His pedigree isn’t a good enough reason to keep him.
As down as people are on Pump, I have thought he showed fairly well. The kid has skill. He isn’t Jesus. He can’t make the line block. He has taken contact really well.
I’m down on him ’cause the rock is down on the turf.
He’s not quck or explosive and he’s razor thin. I don’t think we’re going to remember this guy 5 years from now.
I guess we shall see. I’ll give him time to show me what he consistently showed in college.
They wanted their Sproles replacement, but forgot that Sproles is a unique player that comes around rarely in this league. Smells to me like a reach based on player profile rather than best available or scheme fit etc. I’ll give him more time to show what he can do in hopes I’m wrong.
True. The Eagles love to justify the trade up to get him because DAL was going to take him.
If Kendricks actually decides to play with this kind of intensity all year, I really like this LB corps. No Pro Bowlers but very solid overall and the best starting unit they have had in quite a while. Just very little depth there and at CB.
This isn’t only a bit more of a talented team than last year but a deeper team as well overall. Last year this roster was a little threadbare coming out of camp.
Hicks is a pro bowler
I agree. It’s borderline Eagle-hatin’ to claim he isn’t Pro Bowl material after the production he’s had. Pro Bowl is a popularity contest, so it’s probably more meaningful to say be belongs on someone’s All Pro list.
If that ends up being the PS (maybe replace Cherry or Evans) that’s the best group we’ve had in a long time.
Goode feels like a cut and re-sign after week 1.
I’d keep Ward over Treggs.
Otherwise agreed
I think we would lose Goode this year if we cut him. He is roster worthy as a b/up IMHO.
Sure but he’s not good enough that a team will want to guarantee his salary. He’s not young. There’s no upside. Teams carry fewer and fewer LBs.
It’s not something I’d lose sleep over. I’d personally prefer to blood the youth anyways.
Talk about a guy cut and resigned a bunch.
I don’t really want to talk about poor Julian Vandervelde.
BATMAN
I agree on Dallas Thomas over Chance Warmack. I think right now, Warmack is the better player, but he’s also a guy that isn’t going to be here next year, and is not likely to ever start here (unless something crazy happens- Kelce trade, injuries). Thomas is a prospect, but he’s under contract for a while.
Why not redshirt Pumphrey or Brown on IR?
The player has to agree to it and you have to have something semi-plausible for them to actually have surgery on.
Brown maybe, but his agent has to know he’s likely to get claimed so why not actually go play. Brown is a guy who probably needs the practice time to improve more than a year in the weight room. But there’s at least a case.
I don’t see the point of IR’ing Pumphrey. At all. They drafted him because they like him as a super tiny gadget guy. What’s a year of Lane smoothies going to do? He’s not the best athlete in the world at 170. Running back is also an extremely instinctive position. The only reason to IR Pumphrey is to save face that they fucked up the pick.
I think IR’ing Pumphrey would make a lot of sense. The kid is the all time leader in NCAA yards. Obviously, that does not mean he is necessarily going to be successful in the NFL. But if they feel he can maintain the same level of shiftiness and put on 10-15 lbs of muscle, it would absolutely be worth it.
They traded up in the 4th and he’s had two preseason games of awful run blocking. He hasn’t looked stellar, but it’s early. IR would make a lot of sense for him, IMO.
He was 168lbs at the Senior Bowl. He’s not a superb athlete to begin with. The notion of oh let’s just make him 190 is insane.
He played behind an OL that would have been one of the better Power 5 OL’s in the MWC. His backup ran for 1000 yards.
A year on the PS is just going to make him a shittier athlete.
He also hasn’t done shit in practice since pads came on.
Dude, but do you know what Barry Sanders did in his first two preseason games? So there!
This is the best job on the roster I’ve seen so far for several reasons:
1. Recognized the need for 4 TE based on the impending situation next year.
2. Made the hard choice to cut Warmack who is a bad pass blocker and an inconsistent run blocker.
3. Made tough choices at WR and CB and did not just add all the guys that played well at those positions.
The TE situation: it wouldn’t really help us next year to have 0 TEs that can block.
Well celek will be gone and Burton should be let go so brown would be our second receiving te and then we can sign a big fucker to block or just put Gordon in there
Would they really keep 6 LB’s but only 4 DT’s with this scheme? This seems dubious considering that most downs require twice as many DTs as LBs on the field, and that the depth at DT seems to be better with young guys you might want to keep around and can fear getting poached (Qualls, McCalister). I’d guess they would cut Goode (the Vandervelde-treatment) and keep Qualls as depth in stead.
Beau Allen should be coming back early in the season. They’ll make a roster move when he’s healthy. 5th DT would probably be a healthy scratch anyway.
You also have to keep in mind that DEs move inside a lot these days.
I still think they will want to add another DT simply to make sure he doesnt get poached from the waiver. Its easier to send a player to the practice squat after final cutdowns when rosters have been set.
True.
No doubt they’ll be roster activity like that after Week One.
Linebackers are crucial in this scheme. And if Hicks gets.injured and/or Bradham was dumb on vacation again, you want it to come down to two rookie types?
Doesnt really matter if they are rookies or not. Its a numbers game about the PS. Goode can be cut and resigned like they did last year. Qualls maybe not.
“most downs require twice as many DTs as LBs on the field”
Um… are you playing some kind of funny dime defense as your base? Base 4-3 has 3 LBs vs. 2 DTs. Nickel usually has 2 LBs and 2 DTs, but sometimes only one DT. Those are what you use on “most” downs.
Could have been more clear, sorry. In schwartz’s defense they prefer to go two deep on the DL due to constant rotation. That requires 4 players who can actually play. At LB they were in dime a ton last year (hence the reason Kendricks appear to be expendable) and there is no rotation of LB’s. So that’s two.
Something a little different. Mike Zimmer, the Vikings HC gets asked the same questions over and over about the team. He is also known to have a bit of a crude mouth. But sometimes his translator is quite funny and many folks here will recognize a line or two. Rated R.
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/8/23/16195162/mike-zimmer-press-conference
I haven’t seen anything which leads me to believe that Pumphrey is an NFL player. Gibson has played much better after a terrible start and is Treggs biggest competition. Either Means or McCalister will probably be inactive on game day so they may keep the latter who has more potential for growth.
So you’ve seen nothing of his college stats or highlights? I know, it doesn’t always translate… But its super early. Agree on McAlister
I think it was BGN that did a write up on this very subject. To summarize, if Barry Sanders was swapped with Pump this preseason, with the atrocious blocking he’s had, they would have the same number of yards. Let’s pump the brakes on Pump and see what he can do if he actually gets some blocking.
I think people are forgetting how good Sanders was. Pumphrey hadn’t shown much ability to make people miss, and he has had a few chances. That said, it’s definitely too early to give up on him.
In his best season (2,053 yards), Sanders had 53 yards on 25 carries in his first two games. So yeah, bad coaching or bad line play can contain a great RB.
That’s still better than Pump’s current ypc lol
Absolutely. Still an absurd comparison.
Barry Sanders?? lol, talk about pumping the brakes. Sanders would have gotten 10X the yards so far with little blocking. He did it for countless years in DET with the entire D knowing he was the whole offense.
You really think this was a straight up player to player comparison? And you know how Sanders performed in his career prior to his third preseason game rookie year?
It does not matter what type of comparison it was, there is no comparison between one of the best RB ever to play the game HOF Sanders and Pumphrey. It is totally absurd.
Nope. “It does not matter what type of caparison it was” – that’s the absurd part.
At some point Michael Jordan was a baby crawling, and if you compare CJ McConnell now, to Michael Jordan then, the fact that Jordan is the greatest NBA player of all time is irrelevant, CJ would be the better basketball player in that comparison.
It DOES matter what type of comparison it was.
Hey, be my guest. Compare Barry Sanders with Pumphrey all you or the OP want to.
BTW, Sanders made the PB his rookie year after rushing for 1,470 yards on 280 carries or 5.3 ypc. He was also named the AP offensive rookie of the year. Good luck, Pump!
How much of that was based off of preseason first two games?
Comparisons are about apples to apples, you seem to not be able to get that part.
This is more akin to apples and orangutans
No, you don’t get the comparison. To do this logically, you have to discount anything Barry Sanders did in his career post rookie preseason – not even.
But you seem to refuse to do that, or you’re being to emotional to be rational about it.
I’m done with you on this.
No worries, fair enough. More time for me to sharpen my analysis comparing Sheldon Gibson to Jerry Rice after two preseason games…all in jest, friend. 😉
Cheers – enjoy the game tonight my fellow fan because it will tell us everything about the entire career futures of each young player!
Did you see the video?
That’s absurd.
RBs are expected to make the first guy miss. Pump has not shown that to a conststent degree.
There’s no question Sanders or McCoy would have Made the safety miss in the hole and gotten more yards on some of those runs
Sure but the write up was also done by the guy who said he should have gone in the second round.
4th round picks don’t get cut after one camp. Pump has such a strong resume. He should be ok.
Jalen Saunders and Willie Beavers say hello
I can see Pump getting a really bad hangnail after game 4 of the pre-season and spending a year eating protein shakes and getting bigger and stronger. He really hasn’t shown much in the pre-season.
Who comes off the team when Jones is off PUP, which I am assuming we are leaving him on?
Grymes or a LB
Beau Allen, too.
Has Robinson really looked better than R Brooks in limited slot time?
I’m personally going to trust Undlin/Schwartz, Douglass/Howie on that. Maybe they keep both.
Or neither. And go w/ some combo of Grymes, C. Graham, & Jenkins in the slot for now. Neither Robinson or R Brooks is long-term solution but rather place-holders till a healthy Jones moves Mills to the slot, later this season or next year.
Sure. I kind of hope that doesn’t happen though. I’d like a dedicated slot guy.
On is healthy, the other is not
He played well there in San Diego which earned him a nice contract with the Colts. The Colts then tried to play him as an outside corner, and he sucked.
Brooks hasn’t been healthy, and I don’t think he’s going to hold up during the season. His quad injury from last year is 8-12 months in recovery, and that doesn’t include the strength or conditioning to play football.
I don’t love our options, but if it’s between Brooks and Robinson, give me Robinson all day
If Tommy is correct about who makes the roster, and who are the core STers, who are the game day inactives? I’m guessing:
1. Pumphreys
2. Marcus Johnson
3. Bryce Treggs
4. Dallas Thomas
5. Billy Brown
6. Steven Means
7. Rasul Douglas
i like what another poster mentioned – if you are going to keep a guy like Means just so he is inactive every week, wouldn’t it be better to keep a project guy like McAlister instead?
i’m kind of on the fence either way…
At some point they play, the d line won’t go all year without an injury.
Understand your point, but you couldn’t you also make that argument about most guys on the inactive list who were chosen in favor of others (i.e. Pump/Clement, Treggs/Ward, Thomas/Warmack, Brown/10thOL or 5th DT)?
Also can see them repeating the trend of cutting Najee then bringing him back in week 2 so that his entire salary isn’t guaranteed, in which case they likely keep KGH, who was a very good ST player last year, at least for the 1st week.
Further, keep in mind that last year on the day after after final cuts they put 3 guys (KGH, Treggs, T. Brooks) on the 53 man roster that weren’t in camp with them. But of course there’s no way to predict that.
I was thinking this too. Especially with people’s practice squad predictions. No one ever says “plus two or three guys other teams cut” even though it invariably happens every August.
I’d keep Ward over Treggs and Warmack over Thomas but otherwise I think the roster is definitely close to being set.
Let’s see how the 1st unit does in the important 3rd preseason game
Kelce needs to go. I was hoping that Seamalu would take the center spot and someone else would be able to fill in for LG.
This looks like an 8-8 roster.
If they just got rid of Kelce, they would go 13-3 and be in the Super Bowl. Kelce is the root of all evil.
Amazing how simple it is, right? lol
Very true. RBs can’t run N/S and are forced to run E/W for minimal gain. Chip Kelly didn’t call those RB sweeps with Murray because he was a dumbass, he did it because the interior OL was weak.
Why did he dump Mathis then if the interior was as weak as you claim?
His conduct was detrimental to the team
I can only assume the “his” refers to Chip Kelly in your comment.
I refuse to believe that Kelly did anything for a logical reason.
They also sealed their doom by paying Ertz a little too much. We’re aaaaallll gunnnaaa dieeee!
I’m glad you came to this conclusion with zero snaps utilizing our starting RG, and based off of 2 preseason games.
And start who at G?
WARMACK?
Wiz gets blown up just as much as Kelce.
You really pounding the table for Dallas Thomas starting LG?
I’m still trying to figure out the Wiz extension; good vet for G/C viability, but the dude has limited lateral quickness and doesn’t have the greatest push in the run game.
Warmack is so inconsistent; it’s all between the ears but he’s infuriating to watch. Kind of like, if he doesn’t win with the initial punch, he gets discouraged and doesn’t follow the play through.
It’s not really a mental thing for Warmack he’s just a nightmare technically.
I didn’t get the Wiz extension either but he’s an experienced backup making peanuts. So it’s all good.
For WarDaddy-
His technique is terrible; doesn’t that lead back to mental reps, practice and training? I mean, he was this monster of a man at Alabama, had a great staff and could overpower people with average technique.
5 years into his NFL career, he’s regressed. Substantially. One play he can drive block a guy 4 yards off the ball, another play he gets matadored by the DL and a tackle for loss. He’s inconsistent as hell, which leads me back to believing it’s more mental than anything else.
I generally separate technique from mental side of things.
Makes sense now. Thanks.
Looking forward to twittering you during the game. My wife won’t let me scream at the tv with a baby in the house, so I’ll need an outlet of some sort.
All my shitty family members don’t have comcast. So I’m playing the bootleg stream roulette. I may or may not catch it.
I wanted a RG in free agency or in the first two rounds of the draft. It should have been addressed within the last 2 years.
You mean like the very good starting RG Brandon Brooks we signed in free agency last year?
Brandon Brooks says hello.
My NFC predictions
Division
1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Tampa
Wild Card
5. New York
6. Atlanta
I think the Eagles finish 9-7 and 3rd in the NFC East.
Guess we shouldn’t even play the season, huh? Thanks Don.
I don’t have an issue with someone giving a prediction. He’s just saying here’s my best guess. I have a problem with the people that tell you with 100% certainty what will happen, and there is no arguing with them.
I don’t either. Just being sarcastic. I think we are magnifying our own weaknesses though and discounting other teams. We have a second year impressive QB, and a non-rookie coach now. We have almost improved in almost every facet. It should be an exciting year, and most importantly, a potentially bright future with a young QB. But as with every team, health pays a huge part.
The biggest issue I think is that we have a tough schedule this year. That’s only on paper though, every year teams you’d think would be strong are weak, and weak teams strong, etc…. but at a glance, it looks like we have a pretty grueling road to the playoffs.
At least we aren’t playing 4 teams off their byes…
Yes, thank god for that, but aside from playing in what looks like a tough division, we’ve got games like @KC, @Seattle, Panthers, Cardinals, Raiders, Broncos…
Really the only “easy” looking games on the schedule are the Rams, the Bears and the 49ers, and even those aren’t gimmes like if we had the Browns or Jaguars or Jets.
We’re going to earn our way into the playoffs this year I think, not a lot of fluff on this schedule.
I agree with you.
I had a roommate in college that would tell you what was going to happen in a game. It was fact. There was now arguing with him and no admitting that it was just his opinion. One game he and I got into an argument, and he was saying the Falcons were going to win and there was no stopping them. My point was simply he didn’t know what would play out. The Eagles won that game.
Prediction is like an ASSHOLE, everybody has one.
I don’t think my predictions are absurd at all. Stop being a little bitch.
Goode has been cut and left for dead, only to return more times than characters on Game of Thrones. Maybe Melisandre is his agent.
Hey Tommy, I love your articles – keep up the good work. I feel like your dismissal of Qualls as a no-brainer to the PS is a bit….well… dismissive. He seems like the type of player that could easily get plucked by another team. Whereas our CB/LB depth players are much less likely.
What about Ward over Treggs as a swing QB? Hopefully it never comes to that. Other than that, I like your guess at the final roster!
I have seen no practices, and read very little outside of this consistently awesome blog. I was under the impression that Greg Ward, a converted QB, was a “natural” receiver who was already pretty good with very little exposure to position coaching. IOW, a higher ceiling than Johnson or Treggs. For those who have seen them all at Eagles practices, live or video, does everyone concur with TLAW?
Not sure about higher ceiling than Johnson…
Different types of players:
Johnson more of a Torrey Smith type
Treggs more of a Djax
Ward more of an Edelman or Beasley
Thanks. Does this portend Agholor as the slot guy…if Tommy is correct?
Yes. That’s where he’s been primarily lining up all camp.
Though I imagine we’ll see alot of Ertz, Burton, Pumphrey/Sproles, and Hollins there as well.
He has had Matt McGloin throwing to him in the preseason. So we may never know until the Patriots turn him into an All-Pro…
Dallas Thomas is only 16,000+ cheaper than Warmack because Warmack has 500k of dead money if he’s cut.. Thomas is also going to be 28 in October. What unit has he played on mostly? Warmack will be 26 in September.
Prediction: RB this year won’t be much better than last year. Jeffrey will be hurt too much to be effective, that’s why CHI didn’t resign him after signing a QB and drafting one high. T. Smith is already on his 3rd team, the Ravens let him walk after drafting him in the 2nd rd a few years ago, he won’t do much either. The D will be better but special teams won’t be as good as last year.
7-9 record again.