Disaster Scenarios

Every summer Jimmy Bama does his dumpster fire series. He writes out 10 reasons that each of the NFC East teams could be a dumpster fire in the upcoming season. Jimmy put out his pieces this week.

Cowboys

Giants

Skins

Eagles

Jimmy is at his best when he can rip players and teams so, to steal a line from him, that is some first class journalizin’.

Let’s talk about some potential concerns with the Eagles. For me, there are three areas that stand out.

• CB play
• Doug Pederson
• Carson Wentz

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The Eagles don’t need the current crew of corners to turn into Troy/Bobby/Al, but they do need them to at least be functional starters. There is no guarantee that will happen. Patrick Robinson has been a solid starter in the past, but he also has had injuries issues and has struggled at times. Jalen Mills showed promise last year, but is being expected to start and play much better this year. Rasul Douglas was a backup for West Virginia in 2015 and now is challenging for a starting role in the NFL.

There are other players, notably Aaron Grymes, who could step up and play well, but there aren’t any foundational pieces to build around. That makes things challenging for the coaches and the Safeties.

You don’t need shutdown corners to win in the NFL, but this is a passing league. You need players who can get the job done on a somewhat consistent basis. The Eagles hope they have those players.

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You need good coaching to win in the NFL. And finding good coaches is hard. You can be a great NFL assistant like Gus Bradley and fail. You can be a great college coach and offensive genius like Chip Kelly and still fail.

Doug Pederson has an odd track record. He’s been around a lot of good players and coaches, but just hasn’t done enough on his own to make you feel confident that he is definitely the man for the job. He might be.

Or he might not be.

The pressure will be tremendous this year as Pederson tries to turn the Eagles into a winning team. How will he respond? How will the team respond? Last year was about laying the foundation. You could live with mistakes because of the rookie QB and coach. There was a lot of learning to be done.

That won’t fly this year. The Eagles need to show improvement. That means winning at least 8 games and probably needing to finish with a winning record. That could bring out the best in Pederson, but could also make him desperate if the team gets off to a slow start or has a midseason losing streak. Pederson is still very much a mystery. The way he handles the 2017 season will tell us a lot about his future.

Pederson brought the emotional intelligence to the job that owner Jeffrey Lurie wanted. Pederson has gotten the team back on track and seemed to push the right buttons last year. This season is going to be challenging. The team is more talented, but we have no clue if Pederson is a good coach and is the right man to get this team to win games on a consistent basis.

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Wentz has big time potential. Watch this breakdown by Pederson and you see the raw skills to be a really good NFL QB.

The problem is that history is full of talented QBs who struggled. Nick Foles posted all-time great numbers in 2013 and then looked like a different guy less than a calendar year later. Everything came together for him in 2013 and he made a ton of big plays. Foles looked more like the real Nick Foles in 2014. He’s still talented and has his moments, but isn’t a guy you want at the center of your franchise.

Bobby Hoying showed promise in his second year and then completely fell apart after that. A.J. Feeley showed promise as a young QB, but over time proved he wasn’t meant to be a starter.

Vince Young went 31-19 as a starting QB for the Titans, but that wasn’t enough to keep his job. RGIII had one of the great rookie seasons in league history, but injuries and organizational chaos ruined his career. There was a time when Colin Kapernick looked like he might change the game of football, but things have gone completely sideways for him. Blake Bortles threw for 35 TDs and 4,400 yards in 2015, but looked awful at times in 2016. A good, or even great, season doesn’t ensure long term success.

Wentz must build on what he showed last year. He has to learn from his mistakes. The team will expect him to make more plays and fewer mistakes this year. That kind of pressure can get to some young QBs.

I believe in Carson Wentz. But I also believed in Bobby Hoying. There are no guarantees in the NFL.

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I didn’t mention injuries because that is such an obvious choice.

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One thing Jimmy didn’t mention is…well it’s hard to wrap up in one phrase. Chemistry/confidence. Call that intangibles, maybe?

The Eagles added talent this year. But Alshon Jeffery, LeGarrette Blount, Tim Jernigan, Chris Long, Patrick Robinson and some others are here on one-year deals. These are high character players and I don’t expect any issues, but there is the possibility. They want to win, but also would like good contracts next year. That means they need good game tape and good stats.

Brent Celek, Jason Peters, Jon Dorenbos, Darren Sproles and Donnie Jones have played a combined 237 seasons between them (loose estimate). They want to win games. They want to get to the playoffs and have success. They aren’t interested in building for the future. They want to win now. Will they have the patience to deal with young players?

Sidney Jones is the team’s most talented corner. He’s coming off an injury. Jones might push to play, ASAP. The team sees him as a 5-year asset. They want him on the field, but will also think big picture. They aren’t going to rush Jones, which could bug Jones and other players who think he could help right away, especially at such a vulnerable position.

Players like Jordan Matthews, Mychal Kendricks, and Vinny Curry have odd situations. Matthews wants to stay. Kendricks wants to play. Curry wants to make plays so he can keep his job. Will their situations affect their teammates?

The Eagles are confident right now. They won 7 games with a rookie QB, rookie coach, tough schedule and five different guys playing RT. That’s not easy. The roster is more talented this year. The players know the schemes. The coaches know the players. Confidence is high.

What happens if the Eagles stumble out of the gate? That would happen, with 4 of 6 games on the road to open the season. All the changes from last year brought out energy and excitement, plus kept expectations somewhat down. This year there will be tougher expectations and the newness is gone. It is time to make plays and come up big in winning moments. Playing tough or coming up just short won’t be accepted this year.

Chemistry problems and confidence issues could be factors this year. What happens if the team loses confidence in Pederson, Wentz or itself? Part of winning is expecting to win. If you constantly expect something bad to happen, it usually will.

I like this Eagles team and expect them to be good, but you do have to acknowledge that things could go wrong.

It will be interesting (and hopefully fun) to see which of the NFC East teams does become a dumpster fire this year.

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Identity

We know what Jim Schwartz wants to do on defense. He has a strong track record and his philosophy is well known. The 2016 Eagles had some games where you could see what he’s looking to build here. There isn’t much mystery.

Dave Fipp has a strong track record with his STs units. We know he’s going to get his guys to play at a high level and there will be big plays.

As funny as it sounds, Doug Pederson is still the mystery man. We really don’t know what he wants to do on offense. Any time you have a rookie QB, bad WRs and five different starting RTs, you are not going to be running the offense the coach truly wants to see. The Eagles learned the playbook in 2016. There were some good flashes, but I can’t make any conclusions based on what we saw.

I think Pederson wants to throw more deep balls. He drafted a QB with a strong arm, and one who likes to go deep. The Eagles claimed Bryce Treggs last year. He was a downfield threat. When they needed a roster spot, they cut Paul Turner and kept Treggs. They wanted speed. This year the Eagles added vertical threats in Torrey Smith, Mack Hollins and Shelton Gibson. They want to be able to throw the ball down the field.

Is Pederson going to be Andy Jr with his thoughts on the run game?

I don’t think so. The team seriously considered taking Ezekiel Elliot last year. When they got all the way up to the second pick, that idea went away. They were definitely going QB at that point. The Eagles might have drafted Dalvin Cook in the 1st round this year if there weren’t so many questions surrounding him. There are rumors they wanted him in the 2nd round.

This year they signed LeGarrette Blount in free agency. He’s not a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Blount is a runner. Between him, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood, Donnel Pumphrey and possibly Byron Marshall or Corey Clement, the Eagles have a good group of backs.

The Eagles were 10th in rushing attempts last year and 11th in yards. We can argue whether that should have been even higher with a rookie QB, but the point is that Pederson did run the ball more than people give him credit for. And remember that he didn’t have Shady McCoy or Brian Westbrook to feed it to. In the season finale, Byron Marshall, Terrell Watson and Sproles combined for 28 carries.

I think the game that made me see him as different from Reid was when the Eagles ran for 169 yards against the Ravens. Baltimore had the best run D in the league at that time. The Eagles didn’t have their best OL, but Pederson committed to the run and the Eagles OL was fantastic. That was also a terrific performance by Ryan Matthews. He ran hard and was really physical. That gave me hope. I don’t think Pederson is going to be another Andy Reid when it comes to the run game.

Can Pederson gameplan well?

Will he feed a hot hand?

Will he stop calling quick screens now that he has WRs who can actually run routes and catch the ball?

How creative will Pederson be?

There were good signs last year. Remember that you can’t go strictly off results. Did the design of the plays work consistently? You had DGB dropping a long TD pass against the Steelers. You had Zach Ertz dropping a Red Zone TD against the Skins in a close game. You had Nelson Agholor not even lining up correctly and wiping out a long TD play by Ertz. There were plays where Wentz failed to see an open receiver or failed to make a good throw to an open receiver. There were a lot of yards and points left on the field last year due to sloppy execution. That’s on the players, not Pederson.

2017 will be different. The players know the scheme. Pederson knows the players. There were talent upgrades. Lane Johnson isn’t facing a suspension. And his backup is experienced if something like that does happen.

It will take another year or two for us to really get a feel for Pederson’s offense, but we should start to understand what he really wants to do this season.

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Here is Pederson mic’d up from the season opener.

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