Reasons To Feel Good About Sunday

The Chiefs and Eagles are fairly evenly matched teams. You can make an argument for either team and base it on sound logic and lots of statistical data. For today, I’m going to focus on some angles that favor the Eagles. Tomorrow we’ll get to the bad stuff.

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The Eagles allowed 31 offensive points in Super Bowl LVII. The Chiefs averaged 6.4 yards per play. They went 4 for 5 in the red zone. The Eagles didn’t force a turnover and only forced 2 punts. That defense wasn’t a good matchup for KC, especially on a slick field. This year is a different story.

KC throws a lot of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. They were third in the league in yards after the catch. The Eagles do a great job at defending short throws.

is this the right time to discuss how the eagles defense has seen 61 screens this year and allowed a 32.8% success rate and a -0.41 EPA/pass (both the best marks in the league) on those plays

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) February 2, 2025

KC has not been able to throw deep this year. They live and die with a short passing attack. That also eases the pressure on their re-shuffled OL. Patrick Mahomes excels at the quick game so they will have some success to be sure, but it won’t be as easy as it would against another team. Or the 2022 Eagles. This defense should have some success against Mahomes.

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the Eagles are 5-0 on artificial turf this year

allowing an NFL-low 11.6 points per game

(a full TD better than #2 best team) pic.twitter.com/3GejxSfaj6

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 5, 2025

The Eagles didn’t play great competition in those games, but it is an interesting note. This probably more to do with their defensive speed and the way they fly to the ball than anything else. That ties back into the point above and how the Eagles defend short passes so well.

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The matchup between the Chiefs defense and Eagles offense is a mixed bag. One advantage for the Eagles is that they use a lot of 11 personnel, and the Chiefs struggle with that.

Eagles were an 11-personnel-heavy team when healthy, using it 81% of the time in the playoffs

The Chiefs’ defense has struggled vs. 11 personnel, ranking #29 in EPA/pass & #24 in YPC since Week 9

Could this be a key edge for Philly?

Full breakdown:https://t.co/9xpaNCOsJ0

— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) February 5, 2025

The Eagles will mix in different looks to keep from being too predictable, but they prefer to work out of 11 personnel. They run and throw effectively from this package.

*****

The Chiefs defense struggles with TEs. They allowed more yards to TEs than any other team in the league. Dallas Goedert has been playing at a high level since coming back from injury.

vs NYG – 4-55
vs GB – 4-47-1
vs LAR – 4-56
vs WAS – 7-85

Those aren’t huge numbers, but if you watched the games you know they were all key plays. Goedert has looked great and could be a real difference-maker on Sunday.

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The Chiefs have a reputation as a great third down defense. They were actually 26th in third down defense this season. KC’s opponents are 15 for 31 on third downs in the two playoff games. Steve Spagnuolo is great at getting a key stop by coming up with an unexpected blitz. But the Chiefs defense isn’t the third down juggernaut some would have you believe.

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This is the fourth straight year the Eagles have played the Chiefs. There won’t be a mystique the way there might be if they hadn’t faced them as much. The Eagles barely lost in the previous Super Bowl and then won last season. That should give them confidence that they can win this game. Patrick Mahomes isn’t some mythical figure. He’s a QB. Go hit him. Play good defense.

Patrick Mahomes is 14-2 after a bye week.

But one loss was a SB and the last was against the Eagles in 2023.

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) January 31, 2025

If you read these predictions from NFL analysts, many of them say “the Eagles are more talented, but I can’t pick against Mahomes and the Chiefs. I just think they’ll find a way to win”. A lot of people make the Chiefs unbeatable before the ball is even snapped. I don’t think the Eagles will fall into that trap. By the way…21 of 28 analysts picked KC. I loved seeing that. The Eagles can play the underdog card if they want to go with that angle.

*****

The Chiefs have allowed 147 or more rushing yards in the last four games.

Saquon Barkley.

Most rushing touchdowns of 60+ yards in a single season (regular season + playoffs):

5 – Saquon Barkley (2024)
4 – Jim Brown (1963)
4 – Adrian Peterson (2012)pic.twitter.com/ouEIzEvG60

— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) January 19, 2025

I don’t know that he’ll run for 200 yards, but I think he’ll have a good game. Buffalo got away from the run game last week. I don’t think the Eagles will make that mistake.

*****

The Eagles are undefeated this year when Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown are both healthy. The Eagles lost two games early on when Brown was out. They lost a late season game when Hurts suffered a concussion and missed most of the contest.

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The Chiefs moved Joe Thuney from LG to LT. He’s done a good job on the outside, but is vulnerable to some speed rushers. That has made the OL iffy at two spots.

Here is a look at the battle in the trenches for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs had a very good iOL before they kicked Joe Thuney out to LT and inserted Mike Caliendo at LG in week 15. Since the switch, Thuney has allowed a 10.3% pressure rate at LT, Caliendo has allowed an 11.2%… pic.twitter.com/3bg9WFh1Hw

— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) February 5, 2025

Will KC let Caliendo block Milton Williams 1-on-1 so they can double Jalen Carter? Do they think RG Trey Smith can handle Carter by himself? RT Jawaan Taylor could struggle against Nolan Smith. The Eagles can run stunts/games with Smith and Carter to try to get the best of the right side of the KC line.

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