Game Preview – PHI at BUF

Back in the summer the Eagles at the Bills seemed like a Super Bowl preview. It still could be, but the season hasn’t gone as expected for either team. The Bills aren’t going to win their division, which is shocking. The Eagles have clinched the NFC East, but are likely to end up the #3 seed. This is a pair of good teams. They just weren’t as dominant as expected.

When you talk about Buffalo, you start with Josh Allen. Right now he’s the best QB in the league. Allen is a truly unique player. Justin Herbert is similar in some ways, but Allen is more dynamic. He’s got 25 TD passes and 12 rushing TDs. Buffalo is #3 in points and yards on offense, largely because of Allen. He is one of the rare guys who can carry an offense.

Allen is special because of his ability to make plays out of structure, as a runner and passer. His goal is to buy time and get the ball downfield, but he will also take off running. He has a rare combination of size, speed and strength. Defenders struggle to get him to the ground. Allen’s strength can also be a weakness. He will hold the ball a long time as he’s trying to make a play. That leads to sacks and fumbles.

The pass rush must be smart. Don’t fly up the field wrecklessly. The pass rush was very good in the Chargers game, but Herbert still burned them as a runner and with last second throws. Allen is a step up so the defense has to be very disciplined. The back six or seven must plaster their guys in coverage. If you leave someone open, Allen has the arm strength to get the ball to them.

There is one huge difference in the Bills and Chargers offenses…the OL. Buffalo has a good OL. It isn’t full of high picks or household names. The guys function well together and they are a tough, aggressive unit. I think their OL could tilt the game in their favor. The last good OL the Eagles faced was Chicago’s and that game didn’t go so well.

RB James Cook leads the NFL with 1,532 yards. He is an interesting runner. He’s patient to the hole and then explodes upfield. He’s very good at cutback runs, something that killed the Eagles in the Bears game. Cook is really good in open space. He’s able to weave in traffic and get the most out of his runs. He’s got a handful of long TD runs this year.

The WRs aren’t special at all. Buffalo has tried to find a top end guy for a few years now and it just hasn’t worked. Khalil Shakir is dangerous because he is so good at RAC. Allen will flick him the ball and Shakir flies upfield. Buffalo does have a pair of good TEs in Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. Those guys can make plays. Their #3 TE is Jackson Hawes. He is a stud blocker.

The key to defending Buffalo is to keep things in front of you and tackle well. You need to fly to the football because they have so many players who excel after the catch. Make them sustain drives.

They are the top rushing offense in attempts and yards. It will be interesting to see how Vic Fangio defends them. Will he play more base defense? Will he go with more eight-man fronts? It is a good thing Jalen Carter is back for this game. The Eagles will likely need to rotate up front and will need Carter’s ability to make plays. If you get them off-schedule, they are easier to defend. It does hurt that Nakobe Dean is out. He’s a strong run defender and blitzer. Jihaad Campbell is good, but this will be a big test for his run defense. Buffalo will use 6 OL more than most teams and they do it very effectively. Another thing for Fangio to worry about.

Buffalo tends to run hot and cold. That inconsistency has led to some big deficits. They are so good they were able to make impressive comeback wins over the Ravens (down 15 late) and Patriots (down 17 at the half). They are relentless, largely due to Allen.

The Eagles offense is going to be critical in this game. If they go 3 & out too often, Buffalo will run away with the game. Luckily the Bills defense has some issues. They are 15th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed. They are 29th in rushing yards allowed. This is a team you can run on. Teams average 5.4 ypc against the Bills. They have allowed 160 or more yards seven times this season. Not good.

Luckily the Eagles rushing offense is heating up, averaging 174 yards per game over the past three weeks. This would be an ideal time to have another productive ground game. Tell Saquon and Tank to rest their legs on Saturday. Jalen Hurts running more has also been a help in recent weeks. He gives the offense another weapon.

.@GregCosell breaks down the Eagles utilization of no huddle & empty#FlyEaglesFly

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The numbers tell you Buffalo has a good pass defense. I think that is a bit deceiving. They are terrible against the run so why throw it? Also, they’ve faced some bad QBs. Still, they do have a knack for takeaways. Greg Rouseau and Joey Bosa are the top pass rushers. It would be great to have Lane Johnson back, but he’s been ruled out this week. The most interesting DT is rookie Deone Walker. He’s massive at 6-7, 331. He’s got 7 TFLs and 4 PDs. He can be very good against the run. There are plays when he looks dominant and others where he is pedestrian. He could become a real force over time.

AJ and DeVonta have a real advantage over the Bills DBs. This is an area the Eagles can exploit, especially if the run game is working. Jalen Hurts lit up the Bills back in 2023, with the Eagles winning a wild 37-34 shootout in OT. The offense hasn’t been playing at that level this season so I wouldn’t expect the same fireworks. On the flip side, the defense is worlds better so I wouldn’t expect Buffalo to put up 34.

As always, STs will be a big x-factor. Jake Elliott has been struggling recently. The Bills are on their third kicker of the season and he missed an extra point last week. I don’t know who has the advantage there. Ray Davis is the leading KOR in the league, at 31 yards per return. He is compact and runs hard. The Eagles need to be smart and tackle well on KOs.

This is a hard game to pick. Sean McDermott and Josh Allen have never beaten the Eagles. Vic Fangio’s defense is playing at a very high level right now. But the Bills OL and run game make me nervous. No matter what happens, this will be a good test for the Eagles. They have played a tough schedule overall, but the last two games were easy. This one will have a playoff feel. Let’s see how the Eagles handle that.

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