Checking the Rankings
Posted: April 25th, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 38 Comments »by Patrick Causey – guest columnist
It’s quite common to aggregate rankings or polls to – at least in theory – produce a more reliable set of data. The theory behind this is simple: more data is better than less, and by aggregating the data you remove the potential bias of any one individual expert or data source. We’ve seen it in politics, where Nate Silver started the trend of using a weighted aggregate of polls based on their historical accuracy to predict election results, and even in fantasy football, where Fantasypros.com aggregates the weekly rankings of the best known fantasy football experts.
Since I didn’t have time to dig into the tape this year and evaluate all of the prospects, I wanted to contribute to the draft evaluation process by aggregating the big boards of 12 commercial draft experts: Todd McShay (ESPN), Mel Kiper, Jr. (ESPN), Rob Rang (CBS), Charlie Campbell (Walter Football), Lance Zierlein (NFL), Chris Burke (SI), Dieter Kurtenbach (Fox Sports), Daniel Jeremiah (NFL), Joel Klatt (Fox Sports), Matt Miller (Bleacher Report) and Pro Football Focus.
Below is a chart with the aggregate rankings of the top 42 prospects. I pulled the rankings from the latest available big boards for each of the above draft gurus. In order to make the cut, you had to be on at least six of the 12 big boards I examined. I would have liked to expand this list to the top 100, but most of the experts have not yet released rankings that included at least 100 prospects (Mel Kiper, for example, only ranked 25 in his latest big board). This is also why you will see some prospects with less individual rankings than others.
Nevertheless, here are the rankings:
| Rank | Player | Individual Rankings | Combined Score |
| 1 | Myles Garrett, DE, TA&M | 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 | 1 |
| T-2 | Jamal Adams, S, LSU | 2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 7, 2, 3, 6, 4 | 4.08 |
| T-2 | Jonathan Allen, DT, Bama | 5, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 2, 7 | 4.08 |
| 4 | Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford | 3, 3, 3, 2, 19, 3, 6, 5, 5, 5, 10, 6 | 5.83 |
| T-5 | Malik Hooker, S, OSU | 8, 12, 8, 7, 2, 5, 9, 15, 3, 4, 8, 5 | 7.16 |
| T-5 | Marshon Lattimore, CB, OSU | 6, 4, 6, 5, 10, 9, 7, 4, 7, 7, 6, 4, 11 | 7.16 |
| 7 | Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU | 4, 7, 4, 10, 3, 2, 10, 13, 4, 9, 23 | 7.41 |
| T-8 | OJ Howard, TE, Bama | 7, 10, 7, 6, 8, 10, 11, 2, 8, 13, 18, 13 | 9.41 |
| T-8 | Reuben Foster, ILB, Bama | 9, 5, 9, 16, 28, 14, 2, 6, 9, 10, 5 | 9.41 |
| 10 | Mike Williams, WR, Clemson | 12, 16, 12, 15, 13, 16, 18, 9, 11, 8, 11, 8 | 12.41 |
| 11 | Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford | 10, 15, 10, 13, 17, 13, 17, 14, 7, 16, 23 | 12.91 |
| 12 | Dalvin Cook, RB, FSU | 16, 9, 16, 8, 6, 8, 8, 23, 15, 19, 9, 25 | 13.5 |
| 13 | Corey Davis, WR, West. Mich | 19, 17, 19, 18, 29, 19, 4, 10, 10, 21, 7, 10 | 15.25 |
| 14 | Derek Barnett, DE, Tenn | 13, 21, 13, 9, 11, 21, 14, 24, 13, 22, 3, 26 | 15.83 |
| 15 | Haason Reddick, ILB, Temple | 11, 13, 11, 17, 15, 17, 11, 20, 33, 20, 20 | 17.09 |
| 16 | John Ross, WR, Wash | 21, 14, 21, 14, 20, 23, 15, 12, 22, 20, 19, 21 | 18.5 |
| 17 | David Njoku, TE, Miami | 14, 20, 14, 26, 16, 13, 29, 21, 12, 16, 31, 14 | 18.83 |
| 18 | Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan | 36, 8, 36, 27, 7, 12, 37, 18, 23, 28, 28, 16 | 23 |
| 19 | Mitch Trubisky, QB, UNC | 29, 18, 29, 11, 39, 7, 36, 16, 32, 37, 13, 12 | 23.25 |
| 20 | Forrest Lamp, G, WKU | 15, 15, 28, 56, 25, 28, 14, 16, 14, 27, 27 | 24.09 |
| 21 | Ryan Ramczyk, T, Wisconsin | 34, 34, 12, 25, 22, 35, 19, 27, 12, 22, 28 | 24.54 |
| 22 | Charles Harris, DE, Missouri | 17, 17, 22, 14, 39, 32, 21, 40, 36, 24 | 26.2 |
| 23 | Marlon Humphrey, CB, Bama | 25, 25, 23, 9, 27, 28, 44, 27, 25, 35 | 26.8 |
| 24 | Gareon Conley, CB, OSU | 18, 18, 46, 12, 31, 35, 17, 47, 35, 15 | 27.4 |
| 25 | Garett Bolles, OT, Utah | 20, 23, 20, 29, 22, 29, 38, 22, 25, 25, 61, 21 | 27.91 |
| 26 | Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA | 26, 11, 26, 25, 64, 24, 33, 34, 19, 18, 57, 32 | 30.75 |
| 27 | Cam Robinson, OT, Bama | 22, 22, 19, 21, 26, 23, 31, 34, 44, 55, 42 | 30.81 |
| T-28 | Jarrad Davis, ILB, UF | 28, 25, 28, 30, 18, 44, 24, 34, 38, 41 | 31.00 |
| T-28 | Malik McDowell, DT, MSU | 35, 35, 31, 17, 19, 26, 48, 21, 47 | 31.00 |
| 30 | Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson | 32, 24, 32, 24, 99, 18, 16, 20, 28, 17, 17, 29 | 31.08 |
| 31 | Quincy Wilson, CB, UF | 33, 33, 50, 33, 12, 27, 29, 31, 60, 9 | 31.7 |
| 32 | Tre’Davious White, CB, LSU | 30, 22, 30, 47, 55, 32, 30, 50, 18, 26, 12, 33 | 32.08 |
| 33 | Jabril Peppers, SS, Mich | 46, 46, 21, 34, 28, 22, 29, 31, 23, 45, 31 | 32.36 |
| 34 | Joe Mixon, RB, Ok | 44, 44, 8, 49, 34, 18 | 32.83 |
| 35 | Deshone Kizer, QB, ND | 50, 50, 32, 25, 33, 15, 65, 17 | 35.87 |
| 36 | Zach Cunningham, LB, Vandy | 53, 53, 20, 24, 20, 36, 30, 53 | 36.12 |
| 37 | Adoree Jackson, CB, USC | 31, 31, 36, 15, 55, 37, 50, 37, 44 | 37.33 |
| 38 | Alvin Kamara, RB, Tenn | 54, 52, 37, 31, 26, 32, 44, 30 | 38.25 |
| 39 | Budda Baker, S, Wash | 42, 19, 42, 34, 58, 24, 40, 30, 30, 83, 37 | 39.09 |
| 40 | TJ Watt, OLB, Wisconsin | 38, 38, 39, 26, 58, 35, 29, 41, 54 | 39.77 |
| 41 | Kevin King, CB, Washington | 24, 24, 44, 48, 46, 43, 51, 77 | 44.62 |
| 42 | Tim Williams, DE, Bama | 61, 61, 21, 39, 42, 36, 26, 83 | 46.12 |
With those caveats out of the way, there is a lot of useful information here, so let’s break this down further:Before we dive into what this board tells us, a few caveats: we have no idea if these big boards are consistent with the big boards of actual teams, we cannot say that each “expert” is actually an expert at all, and this list does not include the best possible 12 draft experts out there. For example, Mike Mayock, who is arguably the best in the business, is not included in this list because he has only released positional rankings to date, and his big board won’t come out until the draft.
Myles Garrett ranked as the number one prospect. That should come as no surprise to anyone paying even remote attention to the draft coverage. What was somewhat surprising, however, is that he was the top ranked prospect in all 12 big boards. That uniformity was not found with any other prospect; needless to say, if he is not taken first overall, it will be a mild upset.
The most notable omission is cornerback Sidney Jones, who just barely missed the cut. This clearly is the result of his torn achilles, because some experts believe Jones could end up as the best cornerback prospect in this class. With news circulating today that Dr. James Andrews believes Jones will be ready to go in 4-6 months, he might go higher in the draft than many think. Keep an eye on him in rounds two and three.
There seems to be some natural separation points that we can group into tiers. While drawing those separation lines might be somewhat subjective, here is how I broke it down:
Tier 1: Garrett.
Tier 2: Adams, Allen, Thomas, Hooker, Foster, Lattimore, Hooker, Fournette, and Howard.
With rare exception, each player was rated inside the top 10.
Of this group, Foster has garnered the most buzz as the prospect with the best chance of dropping outside of the top 10. I think Foster is a top 5 talent in this draft and the Eagles would be making a mistake to pass on him if he were available at 14, off-field concerns aside.
Tier 3: Williams, McCaffrey, Cook, Davis, Barnett, Reddick, Ross, and Njoku.
These players consistently ranked around the top 10-15 picks.
McCaffrey is getting the most buzz as a potential top 10 pick given his versatility and clean bill of character, so he might be the most likely of this group to exceed his aggregate rank.
Adding Tiers 1 through 3 together produces 17 targets, none of which are QBs. So in theory, we should expect the Eagles draft pick to come from these first three tiers.
Of Tier 3, McCaffrey, Davis and Ross have been linked to the Eagles the most. While I believe Foster and Cook have higher ceilings than any of these prospects, I would be happy if the Eagles came away with one of these players at 14.
Speaking of Cook, there is significant buzz that he might drop out of the first round altogether given the concerns over his shoulder and his checkered past. If he falls out of the first round, the Eagles should strongly consider a possible trade up from 43 to get him. And if you have not already, check out this terrific piece from Robert Klemko of Monday Morning Quarterback: http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/25/nfl-draft-dalvin-cook-red-flags-character-concerns-scouts-florida-state-miami-dade It might assuage your concerns about Cook’s off-field character issues and also includes a nugget from Miss Betty on the Eagles reported interest (who? You have to read the piece to find out).
Tier 4: Charlton, Trubisky, Lamp, Ramczyk, Harris, Humphrey, Conley and Bolles.
These players consistently ranked from approximately 15- 30.
Of note, Charles Harris, a prospect who has routinely been linked to the Eagles as of late, falls in the 4th tier, at 22nd overall. To the extent that you trust the commercial draft experts, this should give you pause for concern because it suggests the Eagles are reaching to fill a need at a premium position instead of drafting the best available player. Of course, NFL teams might rate Harris higher than the commercial experts, and their rankings obviously deserve more weight. But some of these experts (especially the bigger names) are plugged into the league and base their rankings, at least in part, off what they hear from scouts, etc. So we probably should not dismiss his ranking outright, either.
With news breaking today that Gareon Conley has been accused of rape, you can all but guarantee that he will not get drafted in the 1st round. Otherwise, the Eagles were almost surely interested in the cornerback from Ohio State.
Tier 5: McKinley, Robinson, Davis, McDowell, Watson, Wilson, White, Peppers, and Mixon.
These prospects hover in that low-30 ranking category.
The Eagles likely will not target any of these players at 14, but someone like Mixon (character concerns aside) might make sense at 43 given the value.
And while I might be in the minority, the Eagles should consider Cam Robinson at 43 if he is available. We need a long-term replacement at right tackle, Jason Peters will eventually succumb to Father Time, and Lane Johnson is one mistake away from effectively ending his career. So having a backup plan on the roster might not be a bad idea.
Tier 6: Kizer, Cunningham, Jackson, Kamara, Baker, Watt, King and Williams round out the bottom tier, ranking anywhere from the mid-30s to the low-40s.
Of these, I am a big fan of Jackson and Kamara. Jackson is a dynamic talent in terms of generating turnovers and in the return game. He has confidence in spades (something Jim Schwartz loves), and Schwartz likely will not be concerned with his lack of size.
Kamara, meanwhile, is a potential steal at running back because he was criminally underused at Tennessee. He is an explosive athlete with exceptional lateral mobility and balance, and his pass catching acumen makes him an ideal fit for the Eagles west-coast scheme. While I originally earmarked him as a third rounder, the Eagles will likely have to target him at 43 if they like him.
We can also break these rankings down by positional group, which produces the following:
QB
Trubisky
Watson
Kizer
RB
Fournette
McCaffrey
Cook
Mixon
Kamara
WR
Williams
Davis
Ross
TE
Howard
Njoku
OL
Lamp
Ramczyk
Bolles
Robinson
Edge
Garrett
Thomas
Barnett
Charlton
Harris
McKinley
Watt
Williams
DT
Allen
McDowell
LB
Foster
Reddick
Davis
Cunningham
CB
Lattimore
Humphrey
Conley
Wilson
White
Jackson
King
S
Adams
Hooker
Peppers
Baker
It’s going to be interesting to see if this ranking turns out to be more accurate than any one individual ranking. We can test it during and after the draft. For example, we can look to see if this ends up being a more accurate predictor of where a prospect is taken. We can also use this in 2-3 years to see if the rankings produced a more accurate evaluation of the available prospects. Bottom line: this ranking isn’t perfect, no ranking is, but it does provide us with useful information before the draft on Thursday.
https://twitter.com/JimmyKempski/status/857050089101111300
https://twitter.com/JimmyKempski/status/856554355469758466
What. A. Joke.
How many people on twitter or social media are willing to admit a mistake like that? Most people just double down on their stance.
You seems to have a big problem with Kempski for some reason?
Not a problem. I just find him amusing. That’s all.
Kempski is the most logical, level headed writer I’ve found. Plus he is entertaining. He is usually right too. I have no problem with him presenting information he has and presenting opposite info later if that is what he thinks is right. Love Tommy too, he comes from more of the fan angle where there is usually a positive spin to provide hope.
By Saturday Afternoon the Eagles will have drafted the following players:
Round 1. R. Foster
Round 2. Joe Mixon
Round 3. Sydney Jones
Round 4. Gareon Conley ( Nobody touches him, but Eagles take a shot)
Crazy right? But all 4 could be available in these rounds when we pick based on each of their well known situations.
With the Draft in Philly we take the “All issue & Injury Team”
If all become healthy & exonerated the Eagles could win the Super Bowl in 2018 with the # 1 Defense in football and a dynamic offense.
Or maybe they never recover or get imprisoned and we failed miserably. Considering how badly we want to win a SB I say lets go for it. 🙂
I am obviously just having some fun here. Thursday night can’t get here soon enough.
I think neither CB falls that far. Use Kelce and Kendricks to bump up half a round though, and maybe.
While we are at it, though, lets swap out Mixon for Fabian.
Sure want to throw in Westbrook and anyone else with major red flags while we are at it? Maybe one of them will see the field next year.
Lol!!!
So Jimmy K. is already changing his mind that the Eagles will defo not take Foster or Cook at 14…
Gotta love those draft predictions.
He said it hours after the Conley thing. I’d imagine his source called him and told him the boards got shuffled by the news.
I credit him for being more interested in informing his readers instead of standing his ground.
I can’t believe I need to say this, but any news right now of what team is interested in what player is “fake news” given to the media by either the team or the agent to influence the draft positions of said players.
There is absolutely zero chance a member of the Eagles coaching staff or scouting team gave Jimmy or any other member of the media accurate information to let him know their plans or rankings.
If there leaks in the white house there are leaks in the Eagles’ front office. I don’t believe anyone is showing JK the teams bog board but its not impossible for someone to drop some nuts for a few squirrels.
Right now, there is maybe a max of 3-4 people who know the Eagles full board. Thats Howie, Doug, Joe and Lurie.
Sure but the scouts at least and probably most of the coaching staff knows who is off the board, who they like more than who etc.
Its just a leak, lol. There are other people who have might have a general sense on the draft atmosphere without having to know who the eagles have ranked 1-50
The only reasons to leak is either to misinform or to sabotage (this holds true for the White House too). I have a hard time believing someone on the Eagles payroll is looking to sabotage the team’s draft.
Very black and white way of looking at it
What other reason would a scout or team employee have to give inside information to a media member who will immediately put it out to the world on Twitter?
What does the leaker have to gain? I assume team employees have signed confidentiality agreements and could lose their job if found leaking. Why take that chance.
Maybe D3 can shed some light on another motive for leaking that I am unaware of or have overlooked.
There are plenty of PR techniques that involve leaking bits of information to set fan expectations. Tommy often points to examples of Spuds doing this.
It also doesn’t work to spread “fan news” misinformation to impact what other teams think we are doing unless you mix in a little truth. Just enough to make them wonder next time.
Jimmy is getting this from somewhere, and he has a pretty solid track record.
Notice how Mark Eckel blows Tom Gamble in public every chance he gets? Or Roob thinks Sean McDermott is the bestest most smartest guy ever?
Sometimes a reporter has sat on a story in the past and you owe him a favor. Sometimes guys just like talking off the record. Sometimes you give him certain things so that when you need him for misinformation they believe you.
Sometimes leaks are authorized as well. Some are for misinformation but other times it’s to soften the ground or a trial balloon. I’d say Mixon is a good example of the later. If they do take him at 43 they’ve already had a good portion of the fanbase come around on it. Or a Charles Harris for different reasons.
That’s how sources work. You don’t report most of what you talk about. Some of it gets included in background. Other stuff you sit on. Reporters and sources then get a feel for each other over time.
That being said, draft season is notoriously difficult. Whole lot of smoke out there. Some is true. Some is partially true. Alot is bullshit. Any of these NFL insiders will admit that. Sometimes you’re going to get burned.
No, not looking to sabotage. On the other hand, if 100% of the stuff you give out turns out not to be true, a journalist will pick up on that quickly and never print your stuff. So if you want the false ones printed… gotta give out some good nuggets every once in a while.
And maybe Kempski’s previous tweet is true, and the source asked him to go back on that and muddy the waters even more…
The point of being good at subterfuge is that you need to give out some truth along with your lies. If it was all lies from the Eagles no one would believe any of it, however, if some of it is true, even a little, then it makes things more complicated to determine what is real and what isn’t.
I did listen to when he stood in for a radio host, and was asked about how much misinformation he gets this time of year — and he said it was by far the most suspect of any time of year.
Great addition to info available before the draft; and a very useful road map with which to follow the draft itself.
我只想默默的拜读您的博客！
I know you are not saying to take this as gospel, but I find rankings like these somewhat useless. These are great for the people that want to cry about a reach without actually studying a player themselves. Miley Miss would love this.
Big boards are not a reliable indicator of draft position. They do a very poor and inconsistent job of taking injuries, character issues, and positional value into account.
Additionally these are general rankings without much thought to fit. When I look at prospects I look through my Eagles lens. Their fit for ours schemes has a huge impact on overall grade. That’s not a knock on the media guys. Some of them do an outstanding job overall, but cannot be team specific.
I think most people understand its extremely general and based mostly on the media and hearsay. Nor is it specific to any team’s individual board/rankings. Most mock drafts are broken within the first few picks anyway, every year.
Its a tool for fans to have a general sense of who’s who in the draft and how it might theoretically play out. And it gives the media something to do.
not sure many(if any) will be watching the draft and running back to this list. Appreciate the work involved though.
Never implied that.
didn’t mean you..I agreed with what you were saying and just kind of added to it..
Like I mentioned below, appreciate the effort. Comparing to what fantasy football does though, is off the mark. People in fantasy football do a ton of mock drafts. It’s great to get an aggregate that way because these are the people who will actually be doing the drafts. Getting an aggregate of opinions from people who will never do a real nfl draft is, well, almost useless. At least it’s entertaining. Love the insight on players like Kamara and Jackson.
……
I don’t admire any team, say outside the top 7 or 8, who has to pick in round 1. Seems like this year more than any, there are a ton of character concerns or injury concerns or a combination of both. Pass on a player, say Conley, and he might be elite. Select Conley and he might be in jail. There are two scenarios that can get you fired. Glad it’s not me having to select. For the record – at 14, I take Conley and don’t bat an eye.
……
I wonder if teams do 2 boards. 1 board ranking all players with injuries and character issues aside. Other board ranking all players taking into account concerns.
You just build discounts into your rankings.
We’ve pretty much exhausted discussing individual prospect. I’ve seen people do this a lot lately and want to recommend for people to stop searching for complete players. There are VERY FEW complete players that come into the league.
Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones have it all. Size, speed, body control, etc. Myles Garrett is another example. The guy is a freak of nature. These are the exception, not the rule.
Many players will have a weakness, most will have more than one. I think as a whole people spend way too much time focusing on what players can’t do. Instead we should be focusing on what they excel at and how that fits into our scheme.
For example:
DE 1 is an explosive edge rusher that can get to the QB with a great 1st step. He also has an adequate counter move. Only weighs 250ish and may struggle to hold up in the run game.
DE 2 has polished technique and good hand usage. Is able to hold his ground against the run and had excellent production at the college level. What he lacks in athleticism he makes up for with technique and motor.
No I’m not talking about Charles Harris and Derek Barnett. These guys were both 2nd round picks. DE 1 (Cliff Avril) has developed into a 10 sack a year guy while DE 2 (Vinny Curry) has struggled to become a consistent starter at the NFL level. More importantly Curry has been largely ineffective at disrupting QBs when on the field, but I guess he is solid against the run. Avril’s lack of size and struggles in the run game have not affected his ability to be an impact edge rusher. The Seahawks limit his weakness while playing to his strengths.
DEs rush QBs. CBs cover recoevers. RBs who can catch are great, but they need the ability to be productive in the running game.
When a players strengths match to his primary responsibility you have a good prospect. Play him to that strength and you will have a productive player. Take a guy that is well rounded, but excelled at nothing and he will likely be a very average NFL. The NFL is truly littered with well rounded yet underperforming edge rushers. Adrian Clayborn, Robert Ayers, Jarvis Jones, Quinton Coples, etc. All of those guys wee really productive college players but it did not translate. DRC has made a career as a pure cover guy. The list goes on for every position.
Vinny Curry doesn’t have an explosive first step and is better against the run than the pass? That’s News to me lol!
well written article! good analysis, good job
Hey, guest columnist Patrick Causey, this is excellent work. Thank you! (And thank you, Tommy, for giving it a stage.)
When you do this kind of analysis, it’s a good idea to eliminate outliers which skewer the averages. Three examples are Forster at 28, Thomas at 19, and Barnett at 3. Maybe you eliminate the lowest and highest in some cases where the spread is widest. Also, you can look at range, such as Ross 12 to 23 and take the median 17.5; Conley would be 29. You can play around with these numbers and get slightly different results, if you like playing with numbers. QB is probably the hardest to predict because some team is going to go out on a limb for one. Damn, I hate math in the morning.
I love aggregate stuff. The more estimates you get, they can get eerie accurate. Which is how Vegas seems to always be on point. I’m not sure it will translate that well to draft order though. It might be more useful for rough estimate of player value. IE most players aren’t in play for every pick, QB demonstrates this pretty well. Someone mocking a draft can account for this and be more accurate than an aggregate.
I considered tweaking expert aggregates to mock the Eagle’s draft board. The issue is the ones I was looking at weren’t all mocking on the same premise. Some were doing their best to guess how the draft was going to play out from stuff they’ve been hearing. Some were more reflecting their personal opinion of player value. Most were a mix of the 2 “this is how the draft should play out”, mixing their opinion of player value with their estimate of how that fits in with a team. I would love for every scouting group agency sort of release a top 100 prospects in order and aggregate that just to have a purer tool to use on draft day.
I still think this work is still a cool thing to have on draft day and sort of compare where a person went and where everyone thought he would go on average. Great work!