Game Preview – MIA at PHI

Posted: October 22nd, 2023 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | Comments Off on Game Preview – MIA at PHI

The Eagles and Dolphins square off on Sunday night in Philly. Both teams have had a lot of success over the years, but this feels like the biggest game they’ve played. For some reason, they are rarely good at the same time. Both are 5-1 and considered Super Bowl contenders this year. This is a big game for both teams.

Miami comes in with the best offense in the league and one that is on a historic pace. They average 499 yards and 37 points a game. Put into techincal terms, that is pretty decent. Their worst game of the year is 20 points and 393 yards. Pretty embarrassing, right?

You can talk yourself into thinking this team is unbeatable when you look at the numbers and watch the offensive highlights. How often do you see a team lead the league in rushing and passing? The team averages 6.5 yards per carry. They have the most dynamic receiver in the league in Tyreek Hill. Miami has only allowed 6 sacks all year. The numbers can be overwhelming.

As always, context is needed.

They have beaten:

2-3 LAC
1-5 NE
1-5 DEN
1-5 NYG
1-5 CAR

Not exactly murderer’s row. Miami has only played one team with a winning record, Buffalo, and lost 48-20.

No matter how you slice it, the Dolphins have an explosive offense. But the numbers are skewed by playing bad teams with especially bad defenses. The only two good defenses, NE and BUF, held Miami to 24 and 20 points. They are human.

The Dolphins have at least one turnover in 5 of 6 games. They can be sloppy at times.

Miami is 26th in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed. Opposing QBs have a 98.9 rating against them, and that is even true considering they have faced Mac Jones, Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones and Bryce Young. Miami has faced two good offenses, LAC and BUF. They gave up 34 and 48 points in those games. That defense is vulnerable.

This is absolutely a game the Eagles can win. In fact, they are favored by Las Vegas (-3) and some “experts”.

The Eagles defense is 15th in points allowed and 9th in yards allowed. This will be a major challenge for them, but they will also be tough for the Dolphins. The Eagles strength is up front. They are among league leaders with 20 sacks. The pass rush will be somewhat neutralized by Tua Tagovailoa, who gets the ball out faster than anyone else. He is doing a great job of making reads and decisions right now. That helps him to get the ball out quickly.

Tagovailoa has to get the ball out quickly. He’s missing his starting LT and might be without his C. The Eagles will have a personnel advantage up front, but the style of offense and QB can negate some of that.

Miami uses motion more than any other team in the league. That could be trouble for a banged up Eagles secondary. The safeties will be Terrell Edmunds and rookies Sydney Brown and Mekhi Garner. That’s not ideal against anyone, let alone a historically good offense. The safeties need to keep plays in front of them and then they need to tackle well.

Darius Slay is back and that will help. Josiah Scott got signed this week and will probably be the nickel. Miami is going to try and attack this secondary. The pass rush doesn’t have to come up with sacks, but they need to affect Tagovailoa to help out the back seven. If Tua has time to sit in the pocket, things will not go well.

Sean Desai has been creative so far this season. He’s come up with unique wrinkles for individual games, like using 4-DT looks last week. It will be interesting to see what Desai does this week and if it works.

The Eagles offense played poorly last week, turning the ball over four times and making a lot of key mistakes. Miami does not have nearly the defensive talent that the Jets do. This is a game where Jalen Hurts and the offense must produce. They need to score points, but also to possess the ball. Long, sustained drives would keep Tagovailoa and all his weapons sitting on the sideline and watching.

Vic Fangio prefers a “bend but don’t break” approach so the Eagles might have success moving the chains if they embrace small-ball. They did that in the Rams game and it worked well. Red zone struggles were the issue in that game. Miami is 26th in red zone defense so the Eagles should have a good chance to score TDs down there.

Hurts must be patient. He loves to attack down the field. There will be some chances, but he just needs to keep the chains moving. His supporting cast must help him out. Drops, penalties and missed assignments killed drives last week. You can’t afford that in a shootout type of game.

The Eagles OL did not have a good game last week. It is imperative that they play well. Lane Johnson will be at RT and that will make a huge difference. Jack Driscoll really struggled last week when he took over. Miami has 21 sacks this year, with 11 guys having at least 0.5 sacks. They can get after the QB.

This would be a good week to feature D’Andre Swift and the running game. Let the OL go beat up on the defense. You would also move the chains and keep the Dolphins offense on the sideline.

I’m not expecting a 41-38 type of game. Both teams are good on offense, but you could see sustained drives that shorten the game. I’ll go with a 31-27 Eagles win.

MISC

Julio Jones will make his Eagles debut. He will be the 4th or 5th option in the passing game so keep your expectations realistic. It will be interesting to see if they have a play or two dialed up for him in special situations.

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Jalen Ramsey will miss this game. CB Xavien Howard is questionable. The Eagles faced backup CBs last week and it didn’t go well. We’ll have to see how things play out this week.

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I am excited for the kelly green uniforms and throwback logo.

https://twitter.com/Eagles/status/1715860513341493598

That is glorious.

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This is a really cool story. I had no idea about the backstory of the jacket.

https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/1716138920491024672

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