Game Preview – PHI at WAS

The 6-1 Eagles face the Commanders, who have lost 4 of 5, this Sunday. Easy game, right? Not exactly. Washington has this annoying habit of playing better than they should when Philly is the opponent. The Eagles had to go to overtime to beat Washington in Week 4. And Washington could have won that in regulation if Ron Rivera didn’t wuss out and kick the extra point.

Timing is critical in the NFL. The week before the first PHI-WAS game, the Commanders were embarrassed by Buffalo, 40-3. Washington then had their best performance of the year when they played the Eagles. No matter how dysfunctional a team may seem, these are pro football players. They have talent and pride. Very few of them hit rock bottom and stay there. Washington showed a ton of heart when they played the Eagles. It wasn’t enough, but it almost was.

The Commanders got embarrassed last week. The final score wasn’t the problem. It was just 14-7. Washington fully expected to beat the awful NY Giants. Instead, the G-men controlled the game from start to finish.

DT Jonathan Allen was not happy afterward (NSFW).

Jonathan Allen is sick of it

pic.twitter.com/vgQT4mVSU3

— trey wingo (@wingoz) October 22, 2023

Ugh.

I fully expect Washington to come out fired up and ready to go. That doesn’t make them any more talented or any less flawed, but it does make them dangerous. If a couple of things go their way, they can win this game. Jimmy Bama pointed out in his preview that WAS got some serious breaks in the first meeting. It doesn’t seem likely that stuff like that will happen again, but NFL games can be insane sometimes.

The Eagles are a better team this time around. In the first game James Bradberry played in the slot, Josh Jobe started outside and Terrell Edmunds was an awful starting safety. The Eagles secondary couldn’t stop Sam Howell. Well, they just shut down the Dolphins and now they can add Kevin Byard to the mix. The pass defense should be significantly better than Week 4.

The overall defense has played well three weeks in a row. They should be able to make that four weeks. The big X-factor to me is Howell’s running ability. He ran 6 times for 40 yards in the first meeting. He also scramble to buy time on some pass plays. The Eagles must do a better job of accounting for his mobility. Washington has given up 40 stacks, which puts them on a historic pace. The blocking isn’t ideal, but some of that is on Howell.

My guess is that the coaches will beat into his head this week that he must get the ball out quickly or throw it away. They know the Eagles have a lethal pass rush. The Giants only had 5 sacks going into the WAS game. They got to Howell 6 times and pressured him regularly. That feels like a rock bottom kind of performance. Howell has no choice but to listen to his coaches and get the ball out quickly.

It will be interesting to see how the Eagles defense Terry McLaurin. He was 8-86 in the first game. WAS also had big plays to WR Dyami Brown and TE Logan Thomas. I think having Byard instead of Edmunds will make a huge difference. I can’t stress enough how bad Edmunds was in the first game. He looked like a confused rookie in an old man’s body. Byard doesn’t need to turn into Brian Dawkins. Just be average and that’s a huge upgrade.

WAS will probably try to play small-ball. They did that last October and it helped them pull off a 32-21 upset. One thing that could help them is a hamstring injury to NT Jordan Davis. He is questionable for Sunday. Take him out and the Eagles run defense isn’t the same. Davis is a special player. The Eagles still have enough good DTs to play well, but no one can 2-gap like Davis.

The Commanders scored 31 points against the Eagles. In the three games since, they have averaged 17 points a game. The Eagles should be able to contain them, but WAS does seem to have some voodoo against the Eagles.

They will need to score points to have a chance to win this game. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are having another strong year. They are third in yards and fourth in points. The Commanders have allowed 356 yards or more for six straight weeks. They limited scoring against the Falcons and the Giants, but this is not a good defense in 2023.

The first game was an AJ Brown showcase.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1708574647921623235

Brown went 9-175-2 and just dominated. WAS had to bench rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes. AJ will go against someone different this week, but WAS still runs a lot of man coverage. That will give him plenty of chances to make plays. If they focus on shutting him down, DeVonta Smith could have a breakout game. He posted huge numbers at Washington last year.

If WAS goes with a light box, the Eagles will feed D’Andre Swift. He now has four straight games with less than 80 yards. I’m sure the coaches would love to get Swift going.

The Commanders do have a good DL. If they are going to win this game, they need to win battles up front. Chase Young gave Jordan Mailata some trouble in the first meeting. Mailata needs to do a better job this time out. RG Sua Opeta is coming off his worst start. He’ll need to play better this week. WAS has a better DL than Miami.

Washington comes into this week as a desperate team. They started the season 2-0 and were full of hope. They are now 3-4 and in danger of seeing their season slip away. This will be a huge game for them.

Nick Sirianni had the Eagles fired up on Sunday night and they won a big game. Will they still be celebrating the Miami win? Washington is a rival so I would assume the Eagles will be focused on them and not still stuck on last week. If the Eagles are locked in, this is a game they will win.

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