Tampa Talk

Five out of six. That describes the Eagles losing streak and the Bucs winning streak. These two teams are headed in different directions. Somehow the Eagles are still the favorites going into the game.

Tampa did go 9-8 this year, but didn’t have a lot of quality wins. Green Bay is the only playoff team they beat. They don’t have a win against anyone who had double-digit victories. With a chance to secure the NFC South, Tampa lost to the Saints 23-13. The Bucs did win the division in Week 18, but only beat the awful Panthers 9-0.

The Eagles beat the Bucs 25-11 way back in Week 3. They were very different teams back then. The Eagles were Super Bowl favorites and plenty of people thought Tampa would be in line for a Top 5 pick. The Bucs were 4-7 at one point and it looked like a lost season. Then they went 5-1 down the stretch. Division champs.

I don’t think you can call Tampa a good team. They were the best team in a bad division. It blows my mind that they finished as close as they did to the Eagles. Philly should have been clearly better. The 11-6 Eagles finished 14th in DVOA, dragged down by a porous defense. The 9-8 Bucs were 18th, hurt by a struggling offense.

Baker Mayfield had a terrific season, throwing for 28 TDs. He doesn’t complicate things. Mayfield has an elite weapon in WR Mike Evans and he feeds Evans the ball. Mayfield has an excellent possession receiver in Chris Godwin and uses him to move the chains. Simple, but effective formula.

Mayfield isn’t 100 percent right now.

Bucs say that QB Baker Mayfield was limited in today's practice. Dealing with his ankle and rib injuries, he's following the same pattern as he did last week before their game against the Panthers. If the pattern holds, he'll be a full participant tomorrow.

— Chris Franklin (@cfranklinnews) January 13, 2024

He’ll certainly play on Monday night, but the injuries may affect him.

RB Rachaad White ran for 990 yards. That sounds good, but he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Tampa finished dead last in rushing yards this season. They’ve had some good games, but they don’t have a consistently good running game.

The Bucs averaged 31 points a game from Week 14 to 16. The offense then disappeared the final two weeks, managing just a total of 22 points. They couldn’t even score a TD last week. I’m not sure what we should expect from them.

The defense is good. They were 14th in DVOA, but finished 7th in points allowed. Tampa was third in the league in red zone defense. You can move the ball on them, but scoring TDs is hard. In the first game, the Eagles went 1 for 5 in the red zone. It will be critical for the Eagles to score TDs on Monday night. If you settle for FGs, the Bucs can beat you.

Todd Bowles is a good defensive coach and knows how to scheme so that his players can be disruptive.

https://twitter.com/NFLFilms/status/1745913546687610932

We know some of the names on the Tampa D…Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield. Rookies have given the defense a nice boost. Edge rusher YaYa Diaby leads the team with 7.5 sacks. DL Calijah Kancey has 4 sacks and 10 TFLs. DB Christian Izien is sixth on the team in tackles and also has two INTs.

The guy the Eagles should focus on is Winfield. He’s having a great year, with 6 sacks, 6 FFs and 3 INTs. Those are the kind of numbers you might expect from Brian Dawkins. Winfield makes plays all over the field. He is a difference-maker.

One place the Eagles should have a clear advantage is STs. They were first in special teams DVOA. Tampa was 18th.

https://twitter.com/Eagles/status/1745168944489537557

Anything Covey can do to help the offense will be huge. Of course, the defense actually has to force a punt in order for Covey to have a chance to make a play.

It is hard to figure out the X-factors for this game. Tampa is at home, where they went 4-4 this year. And one of those losses is to the Eagles, who went 5-4 on the road. Both teams have plenty of playoff experience, with the Eagles coming last year and the Bucs in the years before that. Mayfield has two playoff starts. He went 1-1 back in 2020. What he lacks in experience he will likely make up for in hunger.

The Eagles have a chip on their shoulder. Maybe that can help them to raise their level of play.

The storm’s gonna make us stronger. pic.twitter.com/5YyO4DkRx2

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 12, 2024

Every time I think I’ve got a feel for this team, I find out that I know nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

I hope the playoffs bring out the best in the Eagles, but the last six weeks have robbed me of any faith in them. That doesn’t mean they won’t win, but I don’t expect them to look like the Eagles from midseason.

At this point, we’ll take anything we can get.

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