Super Bowl LIX Preview – KC vs PHI
Posted February 8th, 2025 | 2 Comments »The 2024 season comes to an end on Sunday. The Eagles will be on top of the world as they hoist the Lombardi Trophy or heartbroken as they watch the Chiefs celebrate their three-peat. This is the game of the year. For some, this is the game of a lifetime. If you win, everything changes.
But this is still just a game. Vic Fangio stressed that to his players while showing them game film from the previous SB he coached in.
Safety Tristin McCollum said Fangio stopped the film at one point and circled a defensive player.
This play right here? This guy’s done it right every single time up to this point, and just because the lights are a little bit brighter, you feel like you have to make a play, you feel like you have to step outside yourself.
Fangio warned the players of all the upcoming week’s distractions, the multiple media obligations, the celebrities they’d see on the sidelines, the elongated timeouts and halftime. All of it could rob them of their focus. All it would take is one blink, and suddenly they’d find themselves behind.
“Don’t make the game bigger than it is,” nickel safety Cooper DeJean repeated.
“Don’t act out of character,” defensive tackle Thomas Booker recalled. “Don’t allow the spectacle of this game to cloud your mind and cloud your judgment.”
Nick Sirianni has done a masterful job this year of getting his team to live in the moment. One of keys to all the winning after the bye week was the players focusing on the opponent at hand and ignoring everything else. The Eagles weren’t worried about being the number one seed. They weren’t stuck on who would be the MVP. That was just outside noise. Games were all that really mattered. They focused on the team across from them. That’s how you go 15-1 since the end of September.
The moment won’t be too big for the Chiefs. They have a ton of Super Bowl experience. The Eagles have some since they were just here in 2022, but there are a lot of new faces as well. The Eagles need those players to handle things the right way. It’s just a game.
KC will focus on trying to limit Saquon Barkley. Every opponent this year has thought the same thing. Only three teams held him to less than 84 yards rushing. One of those games was due to the score being a blowout and Barkley only getting 14 carries. The Steelers and Browns were the only teams to really limit Barkley. Kellen Moore said after both games that the Eagles were close, but just couldn’t break the long runs as they did in most games.
The Chiefs have done a great job of limiting long runs this year. They have not allowed a single run of 40 or more yards. They allowed a 28-yard run to Houston and a 33-yarder to Buffalo in the last two games so they are somewhat vulnerable. But it will be interesting to see if Barkley can get loose for a big play.
A lot of people think Steve Spagnuolo will be able to shut down Barkley. KC hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all year. I understand the thinking, but the Chiefs run defense has been porous in recent weeks. I rewatched the win over Buffalo and saw the Bills having success with outside runs. James Cook as good speed. Barkley is probably the fastest RB in the league. They could be vulnerable to Barkley running wide. Brian Baldinger pointed out the same thing.
.@Chiefs @Eagles I have concerns about KC’s run defense fown the stretch and the Birds come into town running it 725X this season; 3rd most in NFL history and @saquon coming in fresh. Anyone else share these concerns?? #BaldysBreakdowms pic.twitter.com/ys4nnMzbzd
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) February 8, 2025
There isn’t a simple solution. You can say “stack the box”, but that can lead to big problems. If Barkley gets free, he’s off to the races. If you keep safeties back, you give up short runs. KC struggled with stacking the box against Buffalo.
trying to slow the Bills run game in the AFCCG the Chiefs stacked the box with 8+ run defenders 10 times
did it work?
Bills RBs on those 10 runs:
6.2 YPC, +0.52 EPA/rush, 60% success
50% of these 10 runs gained 5+ yds
KC’s run defense needs Spags to work another miracle pic.twitter.com/534724CgVX
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 7, 2025
The Eagles have a better OL and a better RB than the Bills. That doesn’t guarantee success for Barkley and the Eagles, but it should give you an idea that they can have success even if the Chiefs focus on Saquon.
I’m curious to see what kind of approach the Eagles take in this game. The first play against Washington was the long TD run. Then 4 of the next 5 plays were passes. It felt like the coaches wanted to get Jalen Hurts off to a quick start and wanted to get the receivers involved early. That worked well and the passing offense had a strong day.
I could see the coaches come out throwing this time as well. The Chiefs have a good pass defense, but they haven’t had to face a trio of weapons like AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert all season long. KC has really struggled against TEs this year so don’t be shocked if Hurts comes out throwing to DG early and often.
I feel like the real key to this game will be Hurts. He doesn’t have to be great, but he must be good. He needs to protect the ball and make some key plays. If he comes out and plays like he did against Washington, the Chiefs are in trouble.
KC did a good job of stopping QB sneaks in the Buffalo game. They don’t run the same play as the Eagles Brotherly Shove. The Bills OL didn’t get good push on those plays. Their pad level was way too high. They rely on Josh Allen to work his magic. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can have success in stopping the Eagles and their push play.
One of the things that stood out in the Buffalo game was their lack of top receivers. Limiting Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins is easier than dealing with AJ and DeVonta. The Eagles have Dudes.
This all sounds very favorable to the Eagles. KC does have a good defense. They were 4th in points allowed and 8th in red zone defense. Chris Jones can be a game-wrecker up front. The problem with stopping him is that Jones lines up all over. He plays DE and DT and on both sides. That makes it challenging to gameplan for him.
George Karlaftis led the team with 8 sacks and 28 QB hits. The Eagles OTs should be able to limit him most of the time. MLB Nick Bolton is the team’s leading tackler and remains a good playmaker. Trent McDuffie is the key DB. He can play in the slot or outside. They might have him shadown AJ. McDuffie can cover, but would have a size disadvantage in that matchup.
The Eagles must handle KC blitzes well. Hurts has to see them and get the ball out quickly. The skill players must do their part. The OL must identify rushers and be ready for them. The player who worries me is Mekhi Becton. He doesn’t always do a good job of reading blitzes and getting the right rusher. The extra week should help him get ready.
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How will the Eagles defense do against Patrick Mahomes?
The Eagles have the number one defense in the league. That will make it tough on Mahomes. Beyond that, the Eagles are the best in the league at defending passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. That is where the Chiefs have attacked this year. They prefer short, quick throws and getting yards after the catch. The Eagles cover well and tackle well so that will be tough on KC.
Did Cooper DeJean steal the Commanders’ signals or something? Good grief. He knows this is a screen pass before the snap. pic.twitter.com/2Bj90XyPuo
— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) January 28, 2025
Vic Fangio’s defense is vulnerable to intermediate passes (10 to 19 yards down the field). You can be sure Andy Reid will attack there as much as possible. The Chiefs have struggled to throw the ball downfield and the Eagles have covered those well so don’t expect many deep shots. They do have an explosive receiver in Xavier Worthy so you can’t rule out them giving it a try.
The Chiefs make life tough on a defense by using motion, picks and creative formations. They gave Buffalo fits with crossing routes and picks. DBs would end up trailing by several yards and Mahomes had easy reads/throws. The Eagles have much better DBs, but those are still tough routes to shut down.
KC has had to shuffle their OL. Joe Thuney moved from LG to LT. That made them weaker at both spots. Mike Caliendo is now the LG. He has his moments, but is vulnerable when playing against good DTs. RT Jawaan Taylor is inconsistent. He has plays where he is very good. Other times he will struggle in pass pro. Nolan Smith could be tough on him.
I’m curious to see how the Chiefs try to block Jalen Carter. Do they let Trey Smith try to handle him alone? That would let them give Caliendo help against Milton Williams. The Caliendo-Williams matchup should favor the Eagles. Williams ability to win with quickness and/or power makes him tough to stop.
Milton Williams ranked 2nd in pressure rate among NFL DTs this season, per @NextGenStats. He also ranked 6th in positive rush rate among all qualifying DTs.
Here he is winning against Elgton Jenkins to get a 3rd down pressure yesterday. pic.twitter.com/c7CSK6Wh7v
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 13, 2025
The Chiefs have a total of 35 runs by RBs in the two playoff games. With the OL changes, running the ball has been a bit of an issue. They will mix in runs, but don’t get consistently good push. In the previous SB meeting KC ran for 158 yards on the Eagles. I do not see that happening this time out.
Mahomes legs will be a huge X-factor. He is 18-57-2 in the postseason this year. Those aren’t big numbers but some of those runs came in crucial situations. The Eagles must have a plan for stopping him as a runner. Buffalo used LB Matt Milano as a spy at times. The rushers also need to be under control and not leave big running lanes as they attack upfield. As crazy as it sounds, you want Mahomes to stay in the pocket.
Travis Kelce isn’t an elite TE anymore, but he is an outstanding route-runner and is still dangerous. Last year he went up against Oren Burks in the SB and got the best of that matchup. Fangio will try to have Zack Baun or a safety on Kelce. Burks looked okay in coverage against Ertz in the NFC title game.
The Eagles don’t need some all-time great showing. They need to get stops on a few key plays. If you go back to the previous SB meeting, the Chiefs scored TDs on 4 of 8 possessions. They kicked a FG and missed a FG. Only two possessions ended with punts. That wasn’t good enough. KC went 4 for 5 in the red zone. If you can’t force a punt, at least limit KC to a FG. Those can be huge plays.
Fangio’s red zone D could be HUGE
just look at this
-CHIEFS OFFENSE SINCE 2019-
% of drives to reach red zone:
37% vs Fangio
37% vs every other DEFTD rate inside red zone:
37% vs Fangio
62% vs every other DEFTD rate in goal-to-go:
38% vs Fangio
79% vs every other DEF pic.twitter.com/195xLsUdVZ— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 6, 2025
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Both teams were middle of the road on STs this year. Jake Elliott missed more kicks than anyone wanted, but he was good on the road. Most of his misses came at The Linc. Harrison Butker was the opposite. He missed FGs in three road games this year.
Nikko Remigio is a dangerous KOR. He took one back 63 yards in the divisional round against Houston.
The Eagles don’t need to win the STs battle. They just need a draw.
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This game is at a neutral site, but all accounts from New Orleans say Eagles fans seriously out-number Chiefs fans. We know the dome can be noisy so that could be a nice advantage for the Eagles.
The Eagles are better along the line of scrimmage. KC is good, but the Eagles are better. That will make a huge difference in the game. I think Saquon Barkley will have a good game. I’m not expecting 200 yards, but he will play well and make a difference.
Hurts will be good enough. He’ll make key throws and will make some plays with his legs.
Patrick Mahomes is going to make some plays. You don’t shut that guy down. But the Eagles match up well with the Chiefs scheme this time around and that will make a big difference.
We have activated DE Brandon Graham from Injured Reserve, elevated FB Khari Blasingame and LB Nicholas Morrow for the game, and have placed OL Nick Gates on Injured Reserve. pic.twitter.com/TAUgGubARE
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) February 8, 2025
The return of BG gives the Eagles another weapon up front. I seem to recall him making a big play in a Super Bowl in the past.
This is a game the Eagles can and should win. A ton of people have picked the Chiefs because they just don’t want to pick against Reid and Mahomes. I get that. Those guys have won 3 SBs together, including the last two in a row. Beating a Hall of Fame coach and QB isn’t easy.
The Eagles did that in SB LII because they had the better team. I think history repeats itself and the Eagles bring home another Lombardi Trophy.
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