Iggles Blitz

by Tommy Lawlor

Reasons to Worry About Sunday

Posted February 6th, 2025 | 3 Comments »

In the previous piece I referred to the Chiefs and Eagles as evenly matched. That drew some questions. I think just about everyone agrees that the Eagles have the better roster, 1-53. The Chiefs are good. Damn good. The Eagles are just better. But…

KC has the better coach and the better QB. It is hard to quantify the difference that can make. Andy Reid has been an NFL head coach for 25 years. He’s been the play-caller for most of that time and has a ton of tricks up his sleeve. He knows how to put together a masterful gameplan. He knows what to say to get his team ready. I think Nick Sirianni is a good coach. Reid is an all-time great.

Mahomes makes history every season. Not team history, but league history. He will go down as one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. Jalen Hurts is hoping to have the title of best Eagles QB of all time. That’s a big difference.

Having a Hall of Fame coach and QB can mask for deficiencies at OG or DB or whatever position you want to point out. Reid and Mahomes haven’t lost a playoff game since January of 2022.

*****

It feels like the key to this game is Jalen Hurts vs Steve Spagnuolo. Hurts can be erratic. There are times when he looks mediocre. There are times when he looks great. Just think back to the NFC title game. That was the good version of Hurts and the one Eagles fans want to see on Sunday.

Hurts played brilliantly in the last SB against Spags and the Chiefs. He threw for 304 yards and a TD. He ran for 70 yards and a TD. If not for a fumble that went back for a TD, it would have been an amazing performance. I re-watched part of that game recently and it didn’t feel like KC blitzed much. Hurts had a clean pocket a lot of the time and that helped him to play well. He was only sacked twice for a loss of two yards.

The PHI-KC game from 2023 was different. Hurts was 14-22-150 with an INT. He was sacked 5 times. Two of the sacks were by QB Trent McDuffie. I re-watched part of that game and Spags was more aggressive with blitzes. I’m guessing Spags will stay aggressive this time out since it worked last year. And Hurts has to handle that.

Hurts has done a great job of protecting the ball this year. He has taken more sacks than you like. Those sacks can be drive-killers, especially against a defense like the Chiefs. If they get you in 3rd & long, you know they will blitz. They aren’t afraid of being wrong.

Spags doesn’t need to call a great game. He just needs great calls on a few key plays and that can help KC win. Just think back to the blitzes that killed Buffalo’s late drive.

I also want to mention Mekhi Becton. He is still learning to play OG. There are times when blitzes will confuse him and a free rusher will go right by him. You know Spags is going to attack Becton and see if he can get a free rusher to make a game-changing play.

*****

Mahomes ran 58 times this year, his lowest total since 2019. In the regular season he is judicious about running the ball. The postseason is a different story. The Chiefs get aggressive. Mahomes has 18 runs in just two games. And some of this is by design.

Mahomes is a great passer. He is a dangerous scrambler. KC because even tougher to defend when they start using his legs by design. That puts even more pressure on the defense. The fact they used those plays against Buffalo tells you how worried they were about winning that game. Thankfully the Eagles have seen them and can prepare.

*****

The Eagles passing offense came alive against Washington. Hurts made quick reads and good throws. He didn’t take sacks. He spread the ball to his key guys and led the offense to a bunch of yards and points.

But it was against Washington.

Throwing the ball against KC is going to be a very different story. They have good rushers. They have a great DB in McDuffie. And they have players who know the scheme and have played together.

*****

The Eagles have not done a good job of putting teams away this year. They blew late leads against the Falcons and Commanders, accounting for two of their losses. Each loss involved a brutal dropped pass that would have sealed the win.

  • They led the Jags 22-8 and had to hold on for dear life, with an INT in the end zone in the final minute.
  • They led WAS 26-10 and let them score late to make it 26-18. The Eagles recovered the onside kick to seal the win.
  • They led the Ravens 24-12 with 1:03 left and let a late score cut that to 24-19. The Eagles recovered the onside kick to seal the win.
  • They led the Panthers 22-16. Carolina should have had the go-ahead TD, but the receiver dropped the pass.
  • The Eagles had chance after chance to create real separation from the Packers, but only won 22-10.
  • The Eagles led the Rams 28-15 with less than 5 minutes to go. They gave up a quick TD to make it 28-22 and the Rams got into the red zone at the end of the game before the Eagles had a fourth down stop to seal the win.

Kansas City is Rasputin. You have to shoot them. Then stab them. Then burn them and put their ashes on a rocket to Mars. The Eagles led 24-14 at halftime of SB LVII and the Chiefs blew threw that lead in a heartbeat. The Niners had late leads in two Super Bowls and lost them both to KC. Buffalo had a 3-point lead with 13 seconds left and lost a few years back.

If the Eagles get a lead in the second half, they cannot let up at all. KC is relentless and they do have some voodoo they unleash late in games.

*****

Saquon Barkley was the most dynamic runner in the league this year. He’s 3 TD runs of 60 or more yards in the playoffs. The Chiefs have struggled against the run in recent weeks, but one thing they don’t do is give up long runs.

The longest run allowed by KC this year was just 34 yards. They only allowed 7 runs of 20 or more yards. If the Chiefs can limit Barkley to reasonable gains, that takes away a key part of the Eagles offense.

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Reasons To Feel Good About Sunday

Posted February 5th, 2025 | 1 Comment »

The Chiefs and Eagles are fairly evenly matched teams. You can make an argument for either team and base it on sound logic and lots of statistical data. For today, I’m going to focus on some angles that favor the Eagles. Tomorrow we’ll get to the bad stuff.

*****

The Eagles allowed 31 offensive points in Super Bowl LVII. The Chiefs averaged 6.4 yards per play. They went 4 for 5 in the red zone. The Eagles didn’t force a turnover and only forced 2 punts. That defense wasn’t a good matchup for KC, especially on a slick field. This year is a different story.

KC throws a lot of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. They were third in the league in yards after the catch. The Eagles do a great job at defending short throws.

KC has not been able to throw deep this year. They live and die with a short passing attack. That also eases the pressure on their re-shuffled OL. Patrick Mahomes excels at the quick game so they will have some success to be sure, but it won’t be as easy as it would against another team. Or the 2022 Eagles. This defense should have some success against Mahomes.

*****

The Eagles didn’t play great competition in those games, but it is an interesting note. This probably more to do with their defensive speed and the way they fly to the ball than anything else. That ties back into the point above and how the Eagles defend short passes so well.

*****

The matchup between the Chiefs defense and Eagles offense is a mixed bag. One advantage for the Eagles is that they use a lot of 11 personnel, and the Chiefs struggle with that.

The Eagles will mix in different looks to keep from being too predictable, but they prefer to work out of 11 personnel. They run and throw effectively from this package.

*****

The Chiefs defense struggles with TEs. They allowed more yards to TEs than any other team in the league. Dallas Goedert has been playing at a high level since coming back from injury.

vs NYG – 4-55
vs GB – 4-47-1
vs LAR – 4-56
vs WAS – 7-85

Those aren’t huge numbers, but if you watched the games you know they were all key plays. Goedert has looked great and could be a real difference-maker on Sunday.

*****

The Chiefs have a reputation as a great third down defense. They were actually 26th in third down defense this season. KC’s opponents are 15 for 31 on third downs in the two playoff games. Steve Spagnuolo is great at getting a key stop by coming up with an unexpected blitz. But the Chiefs defense isn’t the third down juggernaut some would have you believe.

*****

This is the fourth straight year the Eagles have played the Chiefs. There won’t be a mystique the way there might be if they hadn’t faced them as much. The Eagles barely lost in the previous Super Bowl and then won last season. That should give them confidence that they can win this game. Patrick Mahomes isn’t some mythical figure. He’s a QB. Go hit him. Play good defense.

If you read these predictions from NFL analysts, many of them say “the Eagles are more talented, but I can’t pick against Mahomes and the Chiefs. I just think they’ll find a way to win”. A lot of people make the Chiefs unbeatable before the ball is even snapped. I don’t think the Eagles will fall into that trap. By the way…21 of 28 analysts picked KC. I loved seeing that. The Eagles can play the underdog card if they want to go with that angle.

*****

The Chiefs have allowed 147 or more rushing yards in the last four games.

Saquon Barkley.

I don’t know that he’ll run for 200 yards, but I think he’ll have a good game. Buffalo got away from the run game last week. I don’t think the Eagles will make that mistake.

*****

The Eagles are undefeated this year when Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown are both healthy. The Eagles lost two games early on when Brown was out. They lost a late season game when Hurts suffered a concussion and missed most of the contest.

*****

The Chiefs moved Joe Thuney from LG to LT. He’s done a good job on the outside, but is vulnerable to some speed rushers. That has made the OL iffy at two spots.

Will KC let Caliendo block Milton Williams 1-on-1 so they can double Jalen Carter? Do they think RG Trey Smith can handle Carter by himself? RT Jawaan Taylor could struggle against Nolan Smith. The Eagles can run stunts/games with Smith and Carter to try to get the best of the right side of the KC line.

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