More on Smith, QBs
Posted: March 17th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 54 Comments »There were a few points that came up in the earlier discussion on whether the Eagles would target Geno Smith at #4. One of the points I made is that drafting him would greatly affect Chip Kelly’s NFL career. If you take a QB that high and he busts, it can easily cost the coach and GM their jobs. A few people came at this idea from an older perspective. Rookie salaries for Top 5 picks used to be insane. If you missed on a player, it would greatly hurt you economically. This is no longer the case, as several people pointed out.
I was referring to time as much as anything. When you draft a QB early, you will build around that player. You focus on developing him. That means lots of coaching. Lots of practice reps. Lots of game reps. You can’t play a QB just a few games. You have to give him an extended chance to show what he can do. At the end of that period. if the answer is “bust”, you’ve set the team back.
Some wondered about the difference in a QB early vs an OL or LB or whatever. There are a couple of huge differences. QB is a sink or swim spot. If you fail, you’re of little value to the team. Freddie Mitchell failed to become a good WR, but was a solid slot guy. Danny Watkins has been a major disappointment, but can be a backup OG. That’s not good value, but it is something. A failed QB offers little to nothing.
QB is also a critical spot that can affect other positions. If a QB doesn’t play well, it can harm the development of WRs and TEs. Jared Cook desperately wanted out of Tennessee because he wanted to play with a good QB. Cook wasn’t playing in a creative offense or a productive one. Being wrong at QB has a trickle-down effect. You can make up for a so-so LT or slow WR or whatever. A bad QB hurts the team in a lot of ways. Being wrong there is vastly different than other positions.
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Some wondered about the big deal in Geno throwing short passes. Here’s why that is an issue. Short passes are generally one-read throws. The QB drops back with a primary target and then feeds him the ball. There is no reading of the defense. There is minimal decision-making. Those are 2 of the main factors in successful QB play at the NFL level. If the QB has little experience at them, it makes developing him all that much harder.
Someone pointed out that this is true of many of the Air Raid offenses. That’s absolutely right. And that’s why taking a QB from any of those schools is something you have to consider carefully. RG3 was one. The difference is that he was so special physically and played at such a high level in 2011, you overlooked his issues and took the chance.
It could be that some other team will do that with Geno in the Top 10. I wouldn’t.
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There were a couple of readers who talked about the importance of Kelly getting a QB this year so that he’s got maximum time to work with the player. That is logical and I agree with it. However, you do not roll the dice on QBs. You must take a player you really believe in. If there are any doubts, you wait and get the QB later in the draft. I have no problem with Kelly taking a chance on Matt Scott or Zac Dysert or someone else if it happens in the 3rd round or lower. I could live with the team going for a QB in the 2nd, depending on who it is. I want no part of Geno at #4. I think you can get a better player and improve the quality of the overall team.
I’d love to see Kelly draft Matt Scott. That’s a kid who has talent, but some issues. Get him in the 3rd or 4th round and see what you can do. That’s the kind of risk I can support. Then next spring you’ll know what you think of Foles and some other young guys. You can decide to go for an elite QB prospect or to hold tight and let your current guys develop.
You cannot take a QB at #4 just to give Chip a player to develop. Chip does seem to really want true competition across the team. That’s good. It would help to have a rookie QB in the mix, to push Vick, Foles, Dixon, and the gang. Pete Carroll has had good luck with going off competition in Seattle. Understand that he drafted Russell Wilson in the 3rd round and traded a mid-round pick for Charlie Whitehurst. Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Flynn were both FA signings. Carroll spent resources to get a good QB battle, but he didn’t invest pick #4. Again, I’ve got no problem with Kelly taking a QB outside the 1st round.
If Chip does feel differently and thinks Geno Smith can be a high quality starting QB, then go get him and tell me to shut up. This is all about what Chip thinks.
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A few of you heard rumors about Smith interviewing poorly. I can neither confirm nor deny that stuff.
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All of the talk about the Eagles and Geno has got to have them on Cloud Nine. Ron Jaworski said he thinks it is 50/50 that the Eagles draft Smith. I think that is music to the ears of Howie Roseman. I still believe the Eagles would love someone to move up and draft Smith. Buffalo is the best fit. Smith has to be on the board at #4 and the Bills have to believe that the Eagles have interest in him.
Don’t hold your breath for this scenario, but it is the one that I think the Eagles want to play out.
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If the Bills thing we are interested in Smith, wouldnt it be unlikely for them to try to trade with us? Id expect them to trade with a team in front of us so they can take Geno before we have the chance.
haha, beat me to it by about 30 seconds…
Which would push down one of the other top prospects to us at 4. We pretty much win either way in that scenario.
I see it the same way as you (and PK_NZ). Assuming the Eagles are bluffing about Geno Smith, that game of poker only gets you so far. If the Eagles actually want to draft Geno Smith, there is no way a team could call them during their pick in order to convince the Eagles to trade back with them so that the other team could pick Geno. You simply don’t pass on a QB you believe can be your franchise QB (what you would be declaring by drafting Geno at #4) for the sake of a few extra second and later round picks. In other words, on draft day, if you are sitting at #4 with Geno still available, you have lost all bluffing power. Either you take him because you want him or you don’t because you don’t believe in him. I don’t think you can sell the bluff of “hey, we really really want to draft Geno, but if you give us a few extra picks, we’ll let you draft him instead” at that point.
I think this only benefits us if some team believes our bluff enough to trade IN FRONT of us, potentially pushing down the guy we want to draft. So to me, the question becomes which players that are likely to be drafted in the top 3 picks could the Eagles be hoping to push down to them by getting a team to trade ahead?
Interesting theory. Of course FA has changed what we expect them to do in the draft; so, from the outside, it would seem that the eagles would go after somebody on offense. Maybe a tackle. But I’m not convinced with that idea. I think Jordan, Ansah and Milliner are all in play and maybe trying to insure at least two of the three make it the #4 as you have just stated
While this is true in theory you have to remember this is the Bills. They have no idea what they are doing. They gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a $59 million contract extension and cut him 1 year later.
Great insight Tommy, I’m also pulling for Buffalo to be desperate to trade up. Also, I think you meant Matt Flynn, unless we’re talking baseball…
If it seems Eagles are interested in drafting Smith, wouldn’t teams have to trade up in front of us, rather than try to strike a deal with Eagles?
Another issue with taking a QB high is that you want/need him to succeed and that would surely negate the fascinating QB competition that is shaping up for us right now. You wouldn’t spend the no. 4 pick on a guy only to have him splitting camp reps with 4 other guys then being benched behind Mike Vick. Just wouldn’t make sense to me.
Just because Geno threw screens a lot didn’t mean he has “less” experience with other types of passes. In the Air Raid, those screens are taking away carries from the RB more than anything. 70% of 518 is still over 360 other types of passes. 55% of 518 is almost 300 throws downfield. He’s certainly not lacking exerience putting the ball in the air. Air Raid and other spread offenses are one of the reasons young QBs are more advanced than ever.
Phils…
72 % of his passes came within 10 yards of the LOS. It is probably about 50% of those passes being one-read type throws. I get your point about the run game, but trust me…scouts and coaches hate the spread offense because it does kill the passing game in the 11-20 yard range, where NFL QBs really show how good they are or aren’t.
Smith had 140 attempts of 11+ last year. If you give Matt Barkley the same number of attempts as when he was healthy last year in his “pro-style” offense, you get 130 attempts. There is so much volume in the WVU passing offense that Smith winds up with a good amount of many different throws.
The real problem is that Smith’s numbers are grossly inflated. His performance against good defenses illustrates the problem with evaluating spread QBs – the spread does it’s job, it sets up mismatches against inferior athletes in college – but every CB (ok almost every) in the NFL is as good as almost any CB you see in college (and can avoid in the spread) – so you’re throwing in much tighter windows. And your first target is often taken away, so you have to quickly progress because you don’t have enough blockers.
Performance against the top defenses gives a clue to how the QB will react against “real defenses” at the pro level. The 11-20 yard throw is the meat and potatoes of a pro QB, but it takes 2.5-3 seconds to develop, you often have to anticipate the cut or throw into a tight window, and you have to make quick decisions. You don’t get a clue watching a pinball game like Baylor-West Virginia.
Though it is interesting that few QBs not named Manning come out of the SEC despite facing the best defenses in the country (Cutler from Vandy).
There’s still a certain degree to which quarterbacks are born, not made. They have a combination of talents so rare that they are going to pop up more randomly. Don’t forget Cam Newton and Matt Stafford, though.
Geno was very solid in the 11-20 zone when he went there.
As for quality competition, I have to fall back on the LSU game once again. That defense had NFL talent at every position and Geno Smith carved them up like no one else did. He easily passes the eye test for me in that game. WVU didn’t score so much because they didn’t have the speed to run away from LSU (Tavon Austin even got caught from behind) or the power to match LSU in the Red Zone. Not even the Air Raid can equalize WVU against LSU talent. Chip Kelly’s Quack Attack couldn’t either.
And his completion percentage was horrible at 11+ yards (something like 40% if I remember correctly). NOT a #4 pick! Not even a 1st round pick IMO, but pickings are slim this year.
I think you have that mixed up. He was 44% at 20+ yards, which is average, not horrible. 11-20 he was 64%, which is better than Andrew Luck at Stanford.
I would hate Geno Smith being drafted by us. It would ruin this off-season for me. Anyway, Tommy do you know anything about Nicholas Williams out of Samford. 6’4 300 lbs DE/DT seems like a prospect, from what I’ve read, that we could get in the 7th round or as a UDFA to compete for the 5 tech, but I can’t find any tape on him
I’ve got a Samford game or two on DVD.
Whether its true or not we all just better strap ourselves into this ride because the rumors about us and Geno will only intensify from now till draft day. If the pick isn’t one of the 2 top OT or DL men I’m hoping for a trade.
Haha sorry one comment it is Matt Flynn not Doug Flynn not that it matters.
Fixed. Doug was an infielder for the Mets in the 1980s.
Doug Flynn is an important part of baseball history because — along with the Phillies’ new hitting coach Steve Henderson and a minor league OF named Dan Norman — Flynn was traded by the Reds for (the hated) Mets HOF pitcher Tom Seaver.
Plus, Flynn — a school yard legend around Cincinnati — was reputedly able to throw a football 70 yards.
I have an uncle that played QB in college. I once asked him if ever had any interest from NFL teams… he laughed, then said, I could make all the throws, but I would lock in on one guy. And continued to explain how he didn’t have the skill to scan the field and therefore, had no chance in the NFL.
It really is hard to do. I couldn’t play QB. Mentally overwhelming. So much action in such little time.
I would make a great backup long snapper.
And wine and dine the starter’s wife.
Yes…
Not only that, but in high school and some colleges, the routes or route combinations are pre-determined by the play call. In the pros (and some colleges), they are part of the play call but also require a read of the defender in the first three steps — simultaneous reads by the QB and WRs. That’s why occasionally you see a guy break in and the QB throw the out … they read different things.
There’s only a finite number of openings on a football field, so I can see how the truly great QBs master it with thousands of reps, but it is by no means easy.
(obviously Tommy you know this, that comment was more a general response than a direct one)
RE: Playing chicken with BUF
This is a complex game. You must convince the Bills (and others) that you are interested in drafting him. You must not oversell or else those teams will trade ahead of you.
Howie Roseman will have to work the phones. If the Bills (and others) hear that the Eagles are at least open to trade scenarios, then those teams may hesitate on trying to get up to #3 (more costly) and may take a chance with the Eagles (more risky, less costly).
This stuff is all really complicated. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. And the Jags and Raiders can ruin the idea by simply taking Smith prior to #4.
I just don’t see what your bluffing leverage would be. If we were talking about a non-QB, I could definitely see the argument of being open to trade scenarios. For the very same reasons you explained above, you may love a guy, but if he busts, at least he can still provide value to the team some how usually. Thus, the pressure of getting a guy or missing an opportunity to get a guy is a bit less. But when it comes to QB, the most important position on the field, and all the pressures that come along with that, I just don’t see how you can sell “wanting a guy but being open to a trade” when we are talking about the 4th pick.
I think your analogy of “playing chicken” is not fully accurate. To me, it’s a lot more like playing poker. You can certainly bluff in poker, but unfortunately, there are just times where the other player knows he has the best hand available so no matter how well you sell the bluff, the other player is not going to fold. To me, this is similar to that situation. The Eagles maybe able to sell a fantastic bluff, but if they are willing to pass on the QB they would otherwise consider at #4, they were not considering him there in the first place. I think an intelligent GM would be able to sense that bluff, and as much as we say certain teams are dumb for this move or that, I do think there is a reason most of these guys are in those GM positions.
I don’t know how to explain this any further. It is odd. It can defy logic, from an outsider’s perspective.
We see teams every year trying to convince other teams they want player X and have no interest in player Y. There is a ton of mis-information out there in the month before the draft. It is a game. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
Playing chicken…bluffing…choose the word you want. The point is that you have to convince another team you are considering something, but you have to be careful not to overplay your hand. You want them to want your spot.
The Eagles can’t make it seem like they are desperate for Smith or this is all ruined. They need to show interest. They must make the Bills think there is a legit shot they will draft Geno.
It may not work, but it is worth the effort. If you can move back and add picks, that would be ideal.
I’ll certainly agree with you on the “it’s worth the effort” part. I mean at the very least, it certainly can’t hurt.
Or they need to make it seem like another team is willing to trade into the spot, like the Vikings did with Cleveland last year.
I think what you’re missing is that it depends on what the Eagles are trying to sell. I agree in principal that if you think he’s a franchise QB then there’s no chance that you pass him up, but you’re taking a very black/white view of that.
Much have been made of the Eagles offseason moves from the perspective of filling holes and allowing them to go BPA in the draft. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for them to call Buffalo and say that they’re not in love with anybody at #4, but they think that Geno offers the best value so he’ll be the pick if they can’t trade out of it. This would especially make sense if Jordan and the two OTs are off the board in the first three picks, since there’s not really anyone else that would be ideal value in the top 5.
Honestly, I think it’s less about the Eagles and more about the other teams. Realistically, all they can do is make it seem like they’re open to the possibility of drafting Geno.
From there, it’s up to how the board falls ahead of us and how much the teams behind us want him. That’s really where our “leverage” come’s from. We don’t make it. We just cultivate it if it appears.
If you convince the Bills to move up to #3 to draft Geno, that means one more player is available at #4. Maybe Dion Jordan would not otherwise be available.
The weird thing is when you look at Smith’s record against the better (and I don’t mean good, only 3 of 8 were top 20 pass defenses) pass defenses, it’s very similar to Foles’ record after his first couple starts against NFL defenses. While physically Smith is clearly superior to Foles, I think Foles is mentally tougher, he played on a bad Zona team where he was under constant pressure, but that meant when he went to the NFL he didn’t wilt under similar pressure. Whereas Smith is used to easy throws with Austin or Bailey a gross mismatch against many college CBs – but in the pros, you rarely get those kind of mismatches most weeks (except when you played the 2012 Eagles).
I think Tommy is right that these spread QBs throwing lots of short passes against inferior competition aren’t used to pressure or having to go through progressions, and those same throws are often taken away by pro defenders who sit on those routes. We’ve seen a lot of these QBs put up gaudy college numbers only to fall flat on their face in the NFL.
The difference with RGIII is simple, he played his best ball against the toughest defenses on his schedule, demonstrating the kind of mental toughness that carries over to the NFL. If Smith were a lesser version of RGIII, i.e. less athleticism and arm strength but similar mental toughness, I’d take him at #4 in a heartbeat. But he isn’t.
The threat of a rookie QB is at least as much motivation as a rookie QB on the roster in terms of lighting a competitive fire under the QBs on the roster. If we add an additional first round pick next year, every QB on the roster will have no choice but to play like they have a 1 year deal and have to play for their future contract. If they fail to exceed expectations, those two first round picks will be used to secure a franchise QB. The monster you don’t see is scarier than the one you do see.
I don’t know Matt Scott, but practically, he automatically joins the ranks of Nate Davis, Ryan Perriloux, Josh Portis. People who all pretty much have/had no chance of starting or be otherwise relevant besides preseason fun. There are alot of that sort of guy coming out every year. Not really hugely interested in yet another QB with no real prospects (and if Matt Scott really did, he would be drafted top 50. AGAIN, no QB that scouts reasonably possibly believe has the physical skill and moxie to play as an NFL starter is dropping lower than about 50th. Matt Scott simply isn’t an unknown or risky or whatever such that one believes he’s overlooked for bad reason).
The guy that you keep trying to push for, Joe Webb, was picked 199th overall. You also add “I don’t know Matt Scott” before you attempt to blast him. I understand being skeptical about a mid-late round QB, but to ignore the possibility that a mid-late round pick could develop into a quality player (the obvious example being almost cliche at this point: Tom Brady), or maybe a great backup that fits what CK wants, purely based on him being drafted in a certain round rather than because of perceived flaws in his game is a very weak argument.
2012 – Bryce Brown looks like he could turn out to be something special and Dennis Kelly already have starting expirience and could potentially be a good backup. 7th and 5th round.
2011 – Stanley Havili was our starting FB this year, and a decent one with good hands. Jason Kelce is our starting center and he looks more than decent, with the potential to become VERY good if the injury doesnt slow him down. Dion Lewis flashed some potential. 7th, 6th and 5th round.
2010 – Kurt Coleman and Jamar Chaney have started, altough not with much succes, but could be a future Colt Anderson and backups. Riley Cooper is a special teams monster, who this year flashed some talent in certain sets. 7th, 7th and 5th round.
2009 – Moses Fokou started for us and looked ok until we changed systems. Brandon Gibson just got signed by the Dolphins and have nearly 200 receptions and 2000 yards as a starter for the Rams. 7th and 6th round.
In 4 drafts which have been deemed, not great, although mostly because of misses on top picks, the Eagles drafted 8 players who all started in the NFL, with Bryce Brown having huge potential, Kelce playing terrific and Gibson having a pretty good career. Others, just provided decent role play or only starting due to bad talent(Coleman, Chaney, Fokou). We haven’t hit a superstar, but the 2012 draft provided the NFL with Alfred Morris as the tied best RB in the class and 2 VERY good kickers, and some nice players like Alfonso Dennard and David Molk who both player for their teams. 2011 had Richard Sherman as the standout, but looking down the list some starters in the league. 2010 saw Aaron Hernandez, Geno Atkins and Kam Chancellor going after pick 100, Antonio Brown from the Steelers close to pick 200 and some good starters, not to mention one of the best young punters in Zoltan Mesko.
There is a reason players drop to the late rounds, other than them being a K/P, and of course your gonna miss or take a chance on a player with off-field issues, but a lot of good players come from the late rounds, not just Brady but also Jay Ratliff, M. Colston, Kyle Williams and Stevie Johnson from the Bills, Cortland Finnegan and of course former Eagles Seth Joyner and Clyde Simmons were late picks. You only have to hit one great, especially at the QB position, and you’re set for the next 10 years. Brady, Staubach, Unitas, Montana, Warner, Jurgensen, Theisman, have combined for a lot of championships and LOADS of success.
I wasn’t exactly interested in Joe Webb either before I saw him under the big lights, and I think the primary issue was the lack of tape at UAB. Did Tom Brady drop? Well of course, but as I’ve said before, there were special circumstances muddying the waters.
What you’re missing is the fact that most scouts are pretty good these days. Obvious selections are obvious, and there’s nothing that suggests that Matt Scott isn’t getting attention, or that there is a risk attached like injuries or shortness. He isn’t even that raw like the dude Denver drafted. If people are honestly impressed by Matt Scott, then perhaps the latest he’ll go is the third round, and if Matt Scott strikes scouts as being capable of starting, then he’ll go top 50. I still remember Quincy Carter well. Talk about a mess out of college, and yet, he was still a second-rounder, and proved why he shouldn’t be QB’ing. Meanwhile, the no-hoper late rounder has a nice preseason or two and people think he might be excitement in the future, and that never bears out in terms of any chances to start.
Been watching the NFL awhile, guys. Not exactly going to be wrong, and I do think that if Webb could be had for a late rounder, many teams will go for that instead of a Matt Scott they think equivalent to Josh Portis.
Below, Bryce Brown is a great example of how real talent gets drafted low. Not much tape on him, known to be raw as heck. Etc, etc. Other positions other the QB have hundreds of prospects out there, and there are only so many scouts. Not only are QBs important as players on the field, QBs are important for various marketing reasons (I mean, there wouldn’t be so many attempts to shoehorn pretty boys that can’t play if that wasn’t true).
Russell Wilson was drafted 75th overall just last season. I seem to remember him playing pretty well despite scouts not thinking he was a top 50 pick. Scouts get things wrong all the time. It’s pretty bold of you to say, you are “not exactly going to be wrong” when plenty of professional scouts who have been watching football for “awhile” get these things wrong all the time. Sure, the majority of good/great QBs come from the first round of the draft. No one is arguing that Matt Scott is a must have QB. But that doesn’t mean he can not be developed into a quality QB.
You’re trying to turn the NFL draft into an exact science. The problem is that the draft is no where close to an exact science. Some guys get over looked. Some guys develop over time. Scott may turn out to be an absolute waste of a pick. He may turn out to be a good backup (a decent return for a 3rd or 4th round pick). He may even turn out to be a decent starter. The potential of that happening is not dictated at all by whether he was selected in the top 50 or the bottom 50. It’s based on his skill set and whether or not he is in the right system with the right coach who can develop him properly and maximize what he can get out of Matt Scott’s skill set.
If Russel Wilson was 3 inches taller, he’d have been at the top of the first-one, two, or three.
Nobody needs scouting to be exact, man. What I’m saying is that there are very freaking few QBs out there that can actually play at a real NFL starting grade quality. And there are less than 32 of those guys. Most years, there are less than 20 of them. There was a reason I was pretty sure Chip Kelly wasn’t letting Vick go without a real QB in hand. I remember Tony Pike, Dan Lefevour, Rick Stanzi, etc, etc, etc. I remember how Joe Hamilton didn’t get much of a shot when he went pro.
The physical demands of the job is pretty darn elite, no matter how much people want to swoon over pretty boys. Tarvaris Jackson is a real NFL starting grade QB. Is he very good? No, not really, but he gets to play as starter or primary backup because he can make the throws and he isn’t stupid under fire. He’s just…slow in the head as far as timing, spotting people, deciding. An arm strong enough to make all the throws is relatively rare in the first place. Real athleticism (no not crazy athleticism, but being faster than the gd’ed nosetackle athleticism) is also relatively rare.
Matt Ryan isn’t really as good as his stats show–he’s not really able to make plays and when he feels he has to, those plays tend to go awkward. However, his coaching staff and the management all know this, and never failed to surround him with the necessary talent and playcalls accordingly. Thing is, this only works because Matt Ryan is a real NFL grade QB in the first place. Maybe he can’t adhoc throw into tight windows or a long bomb (as a second or third read), but he can do all of it as a first read. He’s not slow enough to tackle easily, and he’s not stupid under fire as a general rule.
Scouts can tell most of that. That’s why Ryan Mallet is a third rounder. Way too slow of foot, bad pocket presence, and tends to make poor decisions under pressure. Ain’t the drugs. And I bet the Chad Henne Experiment reinforced just why QBs like him aren’t worth it. If Jevan Snead had a head worth more than ten cents, he’d be a first or second rounder. As it was, he couldn’t even stick with a low rent Tampa Bay team as a seventh rounder.
I promise you, every QB with an NFL grade arm, at least, gets a look. That’s why Brad Childress took one look at Joe Webb throwing passes and going, nuh-uh, he’s staying a QB. And Webb stayed a QB because he throws better passes than the vast majority of third-seventh round QBs. A billion times better than Max Hall. A million times better than Rusty Smith. A thousand times better than Ryan Lindley, and a hundred times better than Dennis Dixon.
Thus if scouts think that Matt Scott is anything like in Joe Webb , the Joe Webb we know now, and not before his draft, then Matt Scott isn’t going later than the third round, guys. Why? Because past round two, and especially three, the back end of the draft is filled with the John Becks of the world, and John Beck was pick #40! Kordell Stewart, Brady, and Matt Schaub are the only well known college players picked in the third round or later to be worth anything. As it was, the success the Redskins had with Kirk Cousins is a minor miracle, even though like Foles, what I see on the field is basically a good backup.
Why is it that you’ll give Joe Webb every chance to “evolve” and eventually succeed as a QB but not someone like Foles?
I’ll bet your answer is something along the lines of “talent is talent is talent”.
But all you’ve got to do is look at guys you yourself mention, like Brady and to a lesser extent Manning…guys whose physical limitations (yes, they are physically limited, especially in comparison to their contemporaries like RGIII, Vick, even your guy Joe Webb) are augmented by their understanding of the game, and their instincts and leadership.
There’s more than one measure of talent. Physical talent for instance. But mental/emotional talent is another and it’s just as important. Players exist on a spectrum of these attributes. It’s about finding a BALANCE between the two, no matter which end of the spectrum you start from.
Don’t think there’s much difference between a backup 1st round guard and a backup 1st round QB. Kolb was a good backup in the second, for example. You’re still disappointed, but backups at both positions are equally valuable. You don’t count on them to carry you, and you’re sad that things didn’t work out, but you don’t get rid of them for no value, because it’s useful to have those backups.
Have just been looking through the Walter football mock draft database. Of the 220 mocks that have been updated this month, 75-85% of them have Joeckel and Sharrif Floyd being picked in the top 3 (Joeckel is top 3 181 times, and Floyd 165). Geno Smith is the next highest, taken in the top 3 in 67 of the 220 mocks. Seems like a good guy to bluff with – he’s the highest ranked at his position too which will influence the QB hungry teams like Arizona and Buffalo. I think you would only really bluff hard if there is a guy you hope to have slip to #4. Because if you bluff too hard there’s a good chance someone will trade ahead of us if we seem so interested in Smith. Difficult to balance. deg0ey seems to have my preference – let Buffalo and Arizona know that if Geno gets to #4 we will reluctantly pick him. Unless of course we really do want to pick him…oh my head hurts.
One other argument that usually comes up in these ‘should be take a QB’ decisions is future draft classes. If 2014 is looking to be a strong class for QBs, then unless you really, really love a QB this year, then it’s probably worth Kelly keeping his powder dry, particularly because Foles is there as some young meat to work with. It’s always nice to go new coach-new QB in year 1, but I think you can do new QB in year 2 and still sell the move. As long as the Eagles don’t tank disastrously this year, Kelly will be back.
After watching Geno in college, I’d prefer they sort out what they have this year and go for a “franchise QB” in the next draft, when there may be a few available. Of course, Kelly knows a lot more about what he wants than I do, but I really want to see them move down a bit and get another second.
Just thought this was interesting news so I wanted to share with the board… a coworker of mine who is an Eagles fan has a kid on campus at west virginia. Apparently, word on campus is that Geno is not a likely Eagles target in the draft.
I like the Mike Shanahan (Redskins) QB model here: don’t draft a QB if there’s not a QB worth drafting. Overpay for a QB if there’s a QB worth overpaying for!
I really don’t want the Eagles to go 11-21 over the next two seasons. Even more so: I don’t want the Eagles to waste high draft picks on a QB who just isn’t worth it. In the 2010 and 2011 drafts, the Redksins did not overpay for a QB. In 2012 they did, and so far (even with his injury): RGIII looks like he was worth it.
Based on everything I’ve seen so far: Geno Smith does not look like he is worth a top 10 pick. I’ll be absolutely fine if the Eagles take a QB lower in the 2013 draft, or not at all. If they need to overpay to get their QB in the 2014 draft, I’ll be fine with that too.
In addition to the Jaguars and Raiders (ahead of the Eagles) I could realistically see the Cardinals (7), Bills (8) and Jets (9) all taking a long look at Geno Smith. For that matter, I could also see the Browns (6) making a play at Geno… if he lasts that long.
The holdup is the Lions at 5, who definitely won’t be looking for a QB.
However: if the Eagles can convince any of the teams that really want Geno Smith that there is a competition for Geno Smith at the 4 spot… Let’s put it this way: I hope the Eagles can make a deal, and I would rather see the Eagles get a 1st round 2014 draft pick out of the trade than almost anything else.
T-Law:
Why aren’t we hearing more about the Jags at No. 2 and Raiders at No. 3 being interested in a QB, i.e., Geno Smith?
The Jags’ Blaine Gabbert is a bright kid. But he has Kelly Stouffer-itis.
The Raiders’ Carson Palmer’s entering his 11th season and seems to have contracted McNabb-itis (except Palmer’s openness to coaching is still not bad).
What do you think? Is Smith in play with those teams? Which would put KC in the cat-bird’s seat, if they are.
Re: Geno’s Bad Interview
I always thought rumors about “bad interviews” is a classic example of disinformation.
The only time I remember a “bad interview” story being true was on ESPN’s QB Coach Camp with John Gruden . . . when Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen blamed his WR for a miscommunication. On national TV.
I’m not saying these rumors aren’t coming out of NovaCare.
I’m just wondering how much stock to put into them at this time of year regarding a player whom, even you don’t want him, you’d want to pump up for all the reasons T-Law’s argued.
Re: Buffalo & New Coach Doug Marrone
T-Law:
Buffalo needs a new QB. No question about that.
The Bills new coach spent the last 4 years at Syracuse with QB Ryan Nassib.
If you’re Marrone, do you push for Geno Smith?
Or do you push for your college QB, whom you know better than anyone.
How much distance is there between Smith and Nassib, in terms of value right now?
How much distance is there in terms of projected NFL ability?
And is Nassib someone the Eagles would consider?
It would be telling if he DIDN’T push for Nassib. He would have a better knowledge of Nassib’s abilities than any other coach in the NFL, and as such, disinterest from Buffalo would be a red flag.