Howie Talks Draft
Posted: April 16th, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 91 Comments »Howie Roseman met with the media yesterday to discuss the draft. He didn’t say anything significant, but that was expected. You really have to read and listen to him and then try to infer what you can. A lot of Howie’s comments are here on PE.com.
The most interesting thing for me was something that Howie said in an interview with Dave Spadaro that took place after he met with the media. Howie talked about having a high pick and said simply that the Eagles are looking for a cornerstone player. That means someone that you build around. Think about that for a second. Who fits that profile? Maybe the OTs do, in the sense that they could be your best OL in 3 years. While they might start out at RT, they’d eventually move to LT. What about DE? This doesn’t fit so well in my mind. Do you build a defense around Star Lotulelei or Ziggy Ansah? I do think Dion Jordan fits well here. Just look at the impact guys like DeMarcus Ware and Aldon Smith have had for their teams. What about CB Dee Milliner? Is CB that critical of a position (4th overall pick)? Is he that good? I don’t think he’ll be the pick.
Sheil Kapadia wrote about Howie’s comments in regard to Geno Smith. I tend to agree with his take…that Howie doesn’t sound as though he’s about to take Geno. Again, we are reading into comments and this is an imperfect process to put it mildly, but I think Geno will be playing elsewhere in 2013.
In regard to trading back, Roseman said the team is open to that. He and the Personnel Dept have gone through a variety of scenarios of what might be offered and they know what they’re comfortable with and how far back they’re willing to go. I think they would love to move back, but that’s just a hunch.
Howie said the team has 4 names they are targeting at pick #4. They know at least one will be on the board, maybe 2 or 3. The value the Eagles have on those players will affect if they move down or not. If there is a prospect the Eagles covet, you only move if a team makes a great offer. If the team likes the prospects, but doesn’t love them, the lure of adding picks might be hard to pass up.
Who are the 4 players? I’m sure Dion Jordan and at least one OT are there. Maybe it is Jordan and 3 OTs. Maybe Jordan, 2 OTs, and Barkevious Mingo. If the Eagles think Ziggy Ansah could ever develop into an impact DE like JJ Watt, then he could be there. Star Lotulelei is a good player, but I’m just not sure he’s in that same category. Shariff Floyd is another possibility. If the coaches want to run more of a pure 3-4, I don’t think Floyd will be a target. If we are going to run a hybrid or 4-3 Under, Floyd might be someone they want.
In the interview with Spadaro, Howie talked about all the situational prep work that has been done. He and the staff are prepared for virtually any scenario. This way they don’t get faced with something in the draft and have to decide on the spot. They’ve got players targeted at #4. They’ve got ’em targeted if they move back. They know what compensation they’d be looking for in a trade. They’ve discussed and made plans so that when the poop hits the fan during the draft, they can make rational, informed decisions.
I don’t really feel like we learned a ton from Howie, but he can’t exactly give away the team’s plans. I thought he did a good job of shedding some light on the process and the team’s mentality heading into the draft. They were aggressive in free agency so that they would have freedom in the draft to focus on talent and not need. If a great WR is on the board, do you want to pass 0n him for a solid Safety?
Howie did say what we’ve already discussed…that if there are 2 players very close in terms of grade, the team can go for the more needy spot. That is something all 32 teams do. The human element is part of drafting. You have to know when to move up or down. You have to know when to go for the need. Howie showed us a lot last year. Let’s hope he does a good job this time around as well.
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I’ve put up quite a few posts at EaglesBlog.net. Be sure to check them out. Lots of draft nuggets these days.
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Couple of questions from recent days.
What about Center? Can the Eagles count on Jason Kelce? Dallas Reynolds is still here. He struggled mightily early in 2012, but got much better as the season went along. He isn’t someone you ever want as a starter, but could be an adequate backup. The team still has Matt Tennant on the roster. He has potential as well.
The Eagles did have a workout with USC’s Khaled Holmes, who played C and G for the Trojans. The team has looked into some other versatile linemen that could possibly slide inside to C in the NFL.
Kelce sounds to be on schedule with his rehab, but there are no guarantees. Also, he’s an athletic OL. The ACL could have a bigger effect on him than other OL.
I won’t be surprised if the Eagles take a C or OL that could play C. I would be surprised if they used an early pick. There are some guys to target late. One player mentioned by a few fans is Dalton Freeman from Clemson. He is light, but athletic. Think of him as a poor man’s Jason Kelce. Eric Kush from Cal (PA) could be a target. Expect the spot to be addressed, but not too early.
Barrett Jones is the one guy that could change that. Would the Eagles spend a 3rd round pick on him? Jones played T, G, and C at Alabama. He spent 2 years under Jeff Stoutland there. Jones could be one guy that would make so much sense and is so versatile that he’s worth the early pick.
Do you have any thoughts on Lawrence Okoye? He is a big, talented athlete. Okoye is 6-5, 304 and had a great workout for NFL scouts. I just don’t know what you do with a guy who would be so raw. It took Ziggy Ansah a few years at BYU to adjust to college football. Okoye is intriguing, but will need time to develop. Someone will sign him. I’m not sure if anyone will draft him.
What’s up with QB Tyler Wilson? I think he’ll go in the 2nd round. The Eagles could be interested, but I’m not sure he’s worth pick 35. The Eagles might like him. I’ve not heard anything. Wilson could slide to the 3rd round. The one issue with him that could turn off Chip Kelly is that Tyler has small hands and that’s something Kelly doesn’t like in his QBs.
The Eagles haven’t shown much interest in Safeties with visits. Will they ignore that position? Chip Kelly went to Georgia’s Pro Day. He got to see Baccari Rambo and Shawn Williams in person. He then went to LSU and got to see Eric Reid in person. The Eagles have met with Don Jones, an intriguing late round guy from Arkansas State. I’m sure they have been all over the Pro Days of plenty of other Safety prospects. For whatever reason, we’re just not hearing about it.
Visits are important to track, but sometimes who doesn’t visit can tell you a lot. Did the Eagles bring some Safeties in and just keep it super-secret or did they not bring in anyone so as not to show their hand? We really don’t know the answers to these questions until after the draft. Just trust me…the Eagles want a Safety.
Someone had previously asked about Kelly and the schools he goes to and what that means. I think Kelly went to places for a reason. He was at West Virginia because Geno Smith is worth seeing up close. You don’t want to pass on a QB without doing your homework. Also, it helped with possibly selling a trade, should the Eagles try to do that. Kelly was at LSU and UGA because both schools had so many prospect that the Eagles could have interest in. If you can see a bunch of highly regarded prospects at once, go do it. That doesn’t mean the Eagles will draft LSU and UGA kids. It does show serious interest though.
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And finally a story from a reader. This will make you feel a bit different about Nate Allen:
“I know that this is not on topic with Goodwin or even the draft really, but I just wanted to tell all of you die-hard Eagle fans a quick story.
My friends daughter has autism. She goes to the autism benefit every year at Lincoln Financial Field. My friend and he daughter met Nate Allen last year and he was extraordinarily nice to them. This year, not only did Nate remember her, but he remembered her name, and made it a point to go talk to them, stand with her in the huddle, introduce her to other Eagles, spend 20 minutes of his time catching up with her, and never treated her like she was “special”.
I just thought I would share this because of regardless of what you think of Nate Allen as a safety (and I admit, I have expected more out of him) these are the kinds of athletes that should be idolized and rooted for.”
_
Well, certainly if you draft a certain type of defensive player it may affect the way you build the defense. For example, if you draft the type of guy who can be an effective two-gapper, maybe now you have someone playing head up on a tackle and/or on the center, and that affects what else you can do.
Could one of those names be an OG? Crazy at 4, but certainly someone that could be built around.
I struggle envisioning Jordan being a 3 down player in year 1 and he seems far too boom or bust to fit the description in the article.
Another point, there are so many draft scenarios out there none of which seem to have the Raiders trading out of pick #3, or maybe I’m reading too many Eagles based mocks. If Miami, Buffalo or Arizona want to trade up they are going to speak to both Reggie and Howie. (That sounds strange, our legendary DE sharing their GMs name and vica versa).
Finally, thanks for mentioning Hermann in your last article. Was that for me or because you have since heard more?
I’m not anticipating OG, but could be wrong on that. Just would surprise me.
Things are quiet with the Raiders. Trading back would make a lot of sense for them. They need picks. Funny note on the Reggie-Howie angle.
No insight on Hermann. Just know he’s a big guy that some teams might like.
All but 3 teams got to see Hermann at his pro day, however they may not have gone with intention of looking at him.
Eagles are looking at what player will be doing in year 3, not year 1 pushing high ceiling guys like Jordan, Johnson, and Ansah up imo per Howie’s comments.
the 3 pick is alot more expensive then the 4 pick. The 4 to 5 pick differential is small in comparison. Hence why a team may be reluctant to trade w raiders at 3 and instead start w us and then move to cleveland at 6. Here mostly trades w Eagles at 4 and Browns at 6 with teams who want to come up and get a otackle, Geno, or special target.
Schedule out Thurs. I think the Reid game is the CBS game of the day in week 5. (Nantz, Simms 4 pm.)
Question Tommy: There has been alot of chatter that the eagles are interested in a tight end in the draft, but i keep seeing clay harbor pop up in the media and eagle events. You have said that the eagles do things deliberately to give hints to the fan base. So my question is since the eagles keep putting clay in the spot light are they trying to say they are content at tight end? If they think he will simply get cut soon why give him interviews?
Good question. Not sure. Clay would be an H-back for Kelly, not a normal TE. Clay does have a chance to make the team in that role.
We will surely carry at least 4 TEs
Tommy do you see Derrick Carrier having a shot at making the roster? He seems to have good size and speed could he be a guy to look out for?
Carrier absolutely has a shot.
Thanks for addressing the center situation, Tommy.
No problem. Missed the question earlier.
I enjoyed the Nate Allen story, I missed it (if it was posted in the comments), thanks for relaying it. Nate is one of those guys that is probably a better man than he is a football player (and he’s a pretty darned good football player to be battling to start on an NFL team) which isn’t something you can say for the majority of pro athletes. Kurt Coleman seems to be the same breed. Rooting for them both to at least make the team (though that will earn a passionate ire from many haha).
He sure was nice to receivers last season.
Regardless of how good Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman are as human beings, they will always the draw ire of Eagles fans worldwide, because instead of 2 more years of this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMM4KtEDP0s
We got 2 years of this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E29ytyjjL48
Ohhhh the HORROR!!!!
I will never…NEVER, EVER, FOREVER…forgive Joe Banner
dont think I will forgive you for making me relive the horror lol
I just threw up in my mouth. Nate Allen will NEVER be 1/10th the player as the “washed up” Bronco’s version of the Wolverine. My favorite player of ALL time. Great warm & fuzzy story about Nate not so great. But F.Y.I. we all know Dawkins is an awesome human being that could BALL.Burn in hell Banner. BURN IN HELL!!! And I hope his hell is getting eternally Algebra Crumpled by hells version of b-dawk!!
Now that I’m officially bummed out I wanna make a list of my 5 lowest most painful moments as a 40 year Eagles fan. Watchin Reggie become a Packer nearly destroyed my father and I both R.I.P.pop made it hard for us both to warm up to free agency lol. Jerome Brown, enuff said, watching the team let Dawkins walk & not do right by him lettin him finishin out an Eagle & the 2 S.B. losses. These were in no particular order. Dishonerable mention goes to the entire 2012 season. Here’s to better days ahead gentleman 🙂
To be fair, Cedric Benson is (was) a load, and it’s a very short list of DB’s that don’t get trucked in that situation (Dawk who is retired but I’m sure he could still do it, Polamalu, Pollard, Landry). Nate Allen is a major disappointment, not because he isn’t Brian Dawkins type physical (almost no one is), that’s not his game, that wasn’t how he was billed. He WAS expected to have ball skills be be AT LEAST proficient if not very good in coverage while being a functional if not reliable tackler eventually. He has not come along in either aspect the way he was expected to.
That said, that entire secondary was garbage, and it had plenty of talent to be at least decent. So I’m eager to see some of these younger guys in TC under a new coach before we judge whether they belong or not.
Agree with everything you said, except…come on…you’re being way too nice about the tackling. Maybe years of Asante, Considine, Nnamdi, ect have rotted your brain, but no safety, nay, no professional football player should ever get trucked so pathetically…ever. Benson will certainly win his share of battles with most DBs. And, any DB will have some one get the best of them in a situation. Heck, there’s times I can remember Dawk not having his feet under him and getting trucked. But, the ease with which Nate is treated like a rag doll and nothing more than a speed bump that barely slows benson down is indefensible. I don’t care if you’re forte is not being a physical tackler…I don’t want anyone on my defense that gets physically abused like a flaccid tackling dummy being helplessly flung at an oncoming train. The fact that he can’t cover and has no ball skills is just icing on the cake.
Off topic, but maybe someone here who has watched more tape will have the answer. Dion Jordan keeps getting credit for being good in coverage. However, in 3 years he has 0 interceptions and only 2 pass deflections.
I don’t have any stats for targets/completion percentage/etc against him, so I’m stuck wondering about what those stats mean. Is he bad at playing the ball in the air? Are opposing QBs throwing at other receivers when he’s out in coverage? Something I’m not thinking of?
I don’t think QBs were throwing his way very much. Imagine looking downfield and seeing a 6-6 guy with long arms on a slot receiver or TE. Jordan is as fast as many college WRs/TEs so it isn’t like they were open.
Exactly. More importantly is that he showed the ability to cover slot wrs 20 yds down the field, tes in man coverage, etc. Part of it is you can project his coverage abilities watching the tape and his workouts. He will have a size and speed advantage over most tes in the league …. when/who can say that for any defensive player??? Also, he most likely would only be asked to cover 20-30 percent of the time … but he looks like a corner in his bend and backpedal.
they stopped running his way too!
I don’t know, it’s a red flag to me, not just that he made zero plays in coverage, but that he never knocked any balls down while pass rushing – I mean we’re talking two years, look at a guy like Ansah. Seems to me Jordan may lack something, whether reaction time or anticipation.
I’m a strong believer that few players are more productive at the NFL level (barring injury or total rawness) than they are at the college level, but most players are less productive. So if you’re not making plays at the college level, no matter how pretty you look on film or how great you test out in drills, you’re probably not going to make a lot of plays in the NFL. Now there are guys who fall off their last season because of double and triple teams or QBs not throwing their way – but those are guys who usually were totally dominating the season before (Aldon Smith for example). When a player’s production falls off, I hit the net to find out if there was an injury or scheme change, otherwise, red flag time.
Frankly, that’s what scares me about both Jordan and Mingo. And it’s not just sacks, if they’re dropping you in coverage, you should have opportunities for lots of interceptions, passes defended and tackles. If a DL is doubled, they can still work off the blocks, move down the LOS and make a lot of tackles.
Experience actually playing defense should fix those problems for Ziggy and Dion…
There are also ways to use Ziggy to decrease his bust potential…For example if you plan on lineing him up at Leo/Predator, and pinning his ears back to rush the passer on every play, how can he have much bust potential? Im sure he can get down the occasional stunt or twist…However if you are drafting Ziggy, and asking him to play 5tec,1 and 2 gaping, or playing him at OLB and asking him to drop back at times and run with TE’s…then his bust potential increases Drastically
I have a feeling both Mingo and Ziggy are getting some serious consideration for Gus Bradley’s LEO spot
While I haven’t watch all of Jordan’s tape, most of the time in what I did watch his responsibility was to bump a receiver, pass him off to the secondary. He didn’t play very much man on receivers downfield, and it was clear when he played zone he was to worry about what was in front of him. He had very few opportunities for deflections and interceptions. His tackling was good. I wouldn’t be so worried about the tackle stat.
I think his shoulder injury had an impact on his pass rushing this past season. After the injury he seemed to refuse to physically engage any offensive lineman when he could not beat the lineman to the edge.
Jordan doesn’t seem to have good instincts for batting balls when he rushes, this is true.
Also, much of the time he was backpedaling into a short zone and then tackling a receiver who caught a ball on a shallow cross or in the flat.
Sal Pal on Eagles live…. suppressing violent thoughts….http://philly.barstoolsports.com/files/2013/01/steve-andress.jpg…..no Jerry, this isn’t the place
Seeing Footage today of Azz running around in Eagles gear…and Chip kelly rocking the Eagles Visor was a beautiful thing
If I was thinking Offensive Tackle in the back of my head, and wanted to describe what I was looking for in the draft without giving away any information, I would say “a cornerstone player.”
could get a stone at corner and trade for Nnamdi Asomugha
Now that isn’t fair; stones don’t place blame.
I feel like stones can point, Isn’t there a pointing stone in one of City Slickers…or maybe Land Before Time….I will find one!
I want to make a Nnamdi compass, that always points in Kurt Coleman’s direction, It can have like a mickey mouse write watch type interface. I assume Nnamdi has one, he always knew where to point
It probably is due to Kurt’s animal magnetism.
I agree and think the top DT’s fit that bill too.
See I think quarterback or passrusher … they affect the rest of the team more than any other position …. granted otackle and rback are next on that list. Think this helps Jordan and the otackles and someone like Floyd/Star
Yes, quarterback. Almost sounds like cornerstone…
No Geno Please!!
One possible thought on Barrett Jones that could make him more valuable to us than other teams: he could be our universal “6th man” if one of our guys gets gassed in a key situation due to how many plays the offense is hoping to run. I know that they’ll be expected to be in shape to handle those situations, but in Week 17 with the division on the line (not necessarily this year) I’d want to have someone to throw in for a series if Todd or Kelce or even Peters is worn out by the fourth quarter. Even being able to spot start for a few plays would be a plus, and this isn’t even considering that adding him to the mix opens up the possibility for some SF-style heavy lines with Jones at RT and Todd at TE. The more I think about him, the more I hope they make him a priority in the 3rd rather than taking someone like Kyle Long in the 2nd.
And as much as we learned about the importance of OL depth this last season, the last two games of 2009 still haunt me. After that pair of losses to Dallas without JJ, I’ve always been squeamish when the team goes into a season with only one “starter-quality” option at C.
F**k the Cowboys.
I really like the idea of taking Barrett Jones in the 3rd but i just hope he last that long i’ve seen some mocks with him going in the 2nd all the way into the 4th but i think if hes on the board when we pick in the 3rd round he will be to good to pass up
Rocket scientist intelligence, Mean and Nasty streak..SEC experience at every position on the Line playing for our current Oline coach…where do I sign up?…I think, if we draft Barret or not in the 3rd, depends on how they view the similar versatile prospects like Quessenberry…If they would be happy with Quess in the 4th, than they could afford to wait and hope he falls to round 4…My problem is that if Barret is on the board in round 4, I think the fatman will take him with the 1st pick, so we would either have to trade back into the end of rd 3 from our 4th rounder, or trade back 10 spots in the 3rd round to get him.
I think, if the Eagles can come away with Kyle Long, and Barret Jones, we are soooo SET! kyle can play RG/RT, and Jones can play anywhere. With Dennis Kelly, and a possible arrival of Watkins, we could have a scary good line.
How could I worry about Peters, when at 330lbs, he is runing Hurdles in April. Peters is the player with the most clout, that could milk is injury, miss alot of all this hard work early in the offseason, and still be guarenteed his starting spot..yet he is out there, running hurdles, and going through full practices in April…so why should I be worried? Its just as easy to get hurt in a no contact practice as a game. Excited about our Tackles JP, and Todd(Todd played on RT in todays practice, Watkins was the RG)
I think they will play to the strength of the draft and draft a lineman at #4 if they can’t swing a trade.
Like you said, the cornerstone comment doesn’t tell us who as much as who we can cross off. I wouldn’t think of Austin as a cornerstone, in addition to the spots you mentioned.
Agreed.
We need a corner with some stones man.
Amen brother. AMEN. In all seriousness when was the last time we had a corner lay wood on someone like say, when Sheldon Brown knocked the stuffing outta Reggie Bush was it? Or WAS that the last time.? Whatever anyone else may have thought of Brown, I always respected the physicality he approached his position with.
Probably not the answer you were looking for: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkFfTFSAX_U
Thanks for the video Alex. Definitely the best “hit” I’ve seen by him in an Eagles Uniform anyway. Still on a scale of 1 to 10 what would you give it? Maybe. A 3.5 or so?? 🙂
Sportsbook.ag draft props
O/U draft position for Geno Smith: OVER 6.5 (-130), UNDER 6.5 (even)
O/U draft position for Matt Barkley: OVER 32.5 (-130), UNDER 32.5 (even)
O/U draft position for Manti Te’o: OVER 26.5 (-140), UNDER 26.5 (+110)
O/U draft position for Tavon Austin: OVER 13.5 (-105), UNDER 13.5 (-125)
O/U draft position for Marcus Lattimore: OVER 84.5 (-115), UNDER 84.5 (-115)
I almost feel like Overs on Manti is so obvious that its a sucker bet, and some winning team, with no media and a strong locker room like the packers will surprise us and take hime early. I would never bet unders on it, but I feel like overs is too easy..I see Teo going 51-65 Range
Man 6.5 on Geno is sooo interesting. Im leaning towards unders. I think Jaxonville and Oakland are percieved to be viable enough options that if someone else really likes Geno, I dont think they would risk hoping he falls to 7, so I would have to say that either by Jax/Oak or a team that trades up, Geno will come off the board 2-4…I wouldnt want him at 35 lol. Im actually serious. If his name was called at 35, I wouldnt be happy because we will be passing up on a surer, meat and potatos type prospect that we could really use. A QB is invaluable. Its a position you overdraft wothout appologies. So if Geno isnt good enough for me at 4, he isnt good enough for me at 35…However, If Chip starts seeing RG3 in Taj, or Teddy or whatever prospect in a strong class, I wouldnt have any problem seeing us mortgage the entire 2014 draft, to put a package together that moves you up to get your franchise guy. Hopefully Nick Foles shocks us, and grabs the franchise spot this year, so we arent in that positon in 2014…I dont believe that we are drafting a QB this year, and if i do I think its because Drysert fell to a spot they love him at
2 things I found interesting:
1- Howie said the Senior Bowl, Combine and personal visits didn’t change their board in the top 4 at all. Is this misdirection? If not, you have to go back and look at who was at the top of most boards in January. Luke, of course, but also Star. He’s the one who suffered the most from not being allowed to compete at the Combine. Similarly, who are the guys that got the biggest jump up from the Combine: Dion, Ziggy and Lane. You might add Fisher to this list as his post-season work washed away those small school doubts. Who does that leave us with? I’d say Luke, Star, Shariff,………………(gulp) Geno? Anybody want to add or subtract to this list?
2- The other thing Howie mentioned is something I read in the Nate and Kurt comments, which I’ve already commented on. The possibility that safeties will have different and less complicated responsibilities in the new scheme. If this is the case, with Chung and Phillips, Nate and Kurt, we might not take a S until the 4th round, as opposed to the 2nd or 3rd as I’ve been thinking for most of this offseason.
I thought about this too immediately …. Late January it was Joeckel and Star. Jordan was still top 8 then. Fisher didn’t fly up till Senior Bowl. Ziggy at Senior Bowl. Lane at combine. Shariff was top 15 before combine. So their board could be Joeckel, Star, Jordan, Floyd for all we know.
The one counter argument I have to your first comment is that draft websites have “risers” and “fallers” all the time, but I strongly doubt NFL teams have the same kind of movement on their draft boards. Most websites are doing a lot of catch up work once the college season ends. In addition, since the majority of these sites have only a handful of people scouting players, they are typically only going to watch a small sample of games for any given player. Meanwhile, NFL teams will spend countless hours throughout the year finding out any information they can on every player they look at. By the time the senior bowl, the combine, and personal visits happen, they already have the vast majority of the information they want on these players, and those additional events are used to confirm their scouting reports, and most importantly check out any character and/or health concerns.
That’s not to say that the combine/etc. are not important aspects of the draft. They are definitely important, but the the draft websites are generally only really starting to get into the ranking of players around the Senior Bowl and combine whereas NFL teams are generally getting closer to gathering their final notes on draftable players.
Exactly, the week after the draft ends the entire college scouting department will be pouring over every rising senior. The only guys they don’t scout extensively prior to the end of the season is underclassmen, and even then most of the guys who will be top 100 picks the scouts at least have seen in passing.
Well, not quite that simple. Breakout seniors are often low on the priority list (because they haven’t done enough to be in the group that’s heavily scouted, often they don’t have enough film TO scout them), as are small college guys who have great workouts (because lot’s of small college guys look good because of the level of competition, workouts tell you who’s a good enough athlete to be worth a day of film watching). However, in most cases we’re talking the 3rd day board, not the top 100 guys.
In fact, I suspect come February and March, all star games, the combine and pro days are primarily about identifying these guys and going back and looking at them, and deciding who you are interested in the later rounds and as UDFAs.
In a few cases, the performance is so outstanding (Lane Johnson) that they probably went back to the film and asked “is he really that good?”
I’m not talking about websites – I could have substutued the word “consensus”. I’m more interested in finding a little clue revealed, a “tell”, or is everything a misdirection? Is Howie just trying to reinforce the primacy of his draft process or is he puffing out his chest a bit to say things have ended up pretty much where they started. If it’s the latter, you have to look at the ups and downs of the last 3 months for divergences.
The comment also could be an early salvo against reporters claiming we picked a workout warrior. If they are looking at Lane or Dion, this would set Howie up later to explain that they weren’t sucked in by the numbers, they already had him atop their board before the Combine.
Good point.
I guess my point is, how are you defining consensus? The only way to for us as fans to do that is to rely on draft boards available to us and/or watching the tape ourselves. For NFL teams though, with entire staffs dedicated to scouting (meaning professional scouts, given necessary resources, and being paid to dedicate their time towards watching college players), the vast majority of the leg work is done prior to the combine. With all that time and effort, most teams will have a very good idea of the top 5 players in the draft prior to the combine.
For draft boards available to us, a lot of the time, if a player impresses at the combine or the Senior Bowl, most scouts making those boards will go back to the tape to confirm what they saw. Very often, that will end up making significant changes to their draft boards (I’m not talking about a 3rd round pick moving up to the 1st round or anything, but for example a guy like Lane Johnson moving from top 20 to top 10). I’m sure NFL teams do this to some extent as well, but since they have already done the vast majority of the leg work, they would be going back to the tape for more minor/subtle things. For NFL teams though, since they have done so much leading to these events, a guy like Lane Johnson may already be rated as a top 10 player.
So I don’t know that we can really guess based on were players were “rated” prior to the combine vs. now, because the information that was available to teams about draft prospects prior to the combine was significantly more complete than the information that was available to us as fans
Your point is well taken but not something I didn’t already realize, with regard to draft websites vs. team scouting departments. I think you are stating the obvious. I guess I would disagree about the idea of consensus though. Would you not agree that Luke Joeckel is a consensus top 6 pick now and back in January? Who are the others? Geno, Star, Shariff, Fisher, Jordan? Weren’t most of these guys, with the exception of Jordan, consensus top 6 picks back in January? You could say that Howie is just reaffirming the primacy of their scouting process with that statement. I’m fine with that. I’m just trying to read between the lines in the same way Tommy was when he seized upon the word “cornerstone”.
Shariff is a good example. He was no where near the top 5 picks on most draft boards back in January/February. Plenty of well-run sites had him as a top 15-25 pick. Now, he is firmly in the top 5. Another example, prior to the Senior Bowl, Fisher was top 10, maybe top 15. Now, a lot of places have him as the 2nd highest rated player. Those are two guys whose draft stock improved pretty significantly on draft boards, but as I said above, I’d bet that had to do mostly with boards catching up with the team’s scouting. Neither guy was a guy that I think teams saw at the Senior Bowl/Combine and all of a sudden reshuffled their boards significantly. They probably already had very good grades on these guys.
There must be a delay with the posting of these comments because I rewrote my above comment when I didn’t see it post right away – so that’ll probably post soon. Anyway, you are answering my original question of who was on the “January” list and who wasn’t. I wonder if Fisher and Jordan were on teams’ top 5 boards back in January but I doubt it – just a guess. When I read Howie’s comments, I immediately thought of Star, who may or may not be a top 5, but who has bounced the most of any top player from top 5 to bottom half and back to top 10.
Your point about draft websites vs. NFL scouting departments is well taken, if somewhat obvious, and not something I didn’t already know. I guess I would disagree with you on the idea of consensus. Is Luke Joeckel not a consensus top pick, both now and back in January? This is a tricky year for any kind of consensus, even now so close to the draft, but most people would still agree that Fisher, Shariff, Star, Jordan are also in that group. That’s what I mean by a consensus. And most of these guys were top picks back in January with the exception of Jordan. It seems you are arguing that Howie was simply reaffirming the primacy of their scouting process with his comment. I’m fine with that.
My point is really more about intuition. Is there some way to read between the lines of Howie’s comments? Tommy seized upon the word “cornerstone” to infer something, I looked at something else. The point is – we are both engaging in conjecture. It’s what makes this time of year so much fun.
2 things really jumped out at me w Howie’s comments that haven’t been hit on previously and may shed some light on what the Birds do:
1) On evaluating a prospect’s immediate impact versus his impact down the road:
“The most important question we ask, whether it’s our scouts, or myself
or our coaches is: Three years from now, what is this player going to
be? We look at this draft – at every draft – as a long-term decision for
our football team, so just because a player may be better in year one,
he better also be better in Year three, four, five and so on from that.
That’s really our focus, is what we think they can be. Obviously, you’re
projecting a little bit, which is what you’re doing anyway.”
A — i think this view tends to help prioritize the players with the high ceilings re: Jordan, Johnson, Ansah, EJ versus safe low ceiling players. Birds aren’t looking for immediate best rookie impact so Jordan over Jones, Johnson over Joeckel, Ansah over Woerner may be the way they view things.
2) I also forgot Howie graduated from Florida, regards that program very highly, and watches them closely. Could help someone like Shariff, or the safety and te from florida move up on our radar.
Caution: just because a player is less advanced at the moment does NOT imply that he has a higher ceiling in reality. As a general rule, the guy who is better at age 22 will also be better at age 26.
I wasn’t implying anything. For high ceiling, I am going off of what the great majority of draft experts and former nfl scouts have explicitly said about Jordan, Ansah, and Johnson … w Jordan just making switch to defense 2 yrs, Ansah just learning football 2 yrs ago, and Johnson switching positions 4 times in 3 yrs. And I don’t necessarily agree with your general rule re: when it comes to passrushers ie C Matthews, A Smith, C Wake, JPP all were considered a bit raw to very raw and advanced after college versus high production guys like D Harvey, D Morgan, C Dunlap who disappointed.
I gotta roll with Tom on this one..Neither Ware or Aldon smith had more than 7 sacks the year they were drafted..Jayson Taylor saw alot of minutes for 3 seasons(after playing DE in High school) and he only finished his college career with 21 sacks)in a very weak conference)..Dion had 5 sacks this year, fighting off 300lb men with 1 arm lol, and he did it with alot lett pass rushing opportunities than the DE prospects that he is competing with….There is NO prospect thats available that much more of a sure thing to become a stud than Dion, and no one has a higher ceiling than that kid(Players that can rush the passer as anOLB/DE, yet also probably can spend a snap or two at Deathbacker/safety just dont grow on trees)… Eric Fisher could be the 13th pick in some drafts, and an OT’s true value is pass blocking, no matter what scheme you are running. Best Pass blockers are always going to get paid the most…You can find some pretty good pass blocking prospects later in this draft, but I think, there are all types of quality runblocking maulers available if we pass on King Fish
So, if all the prospects are graded similar, why wouldnt Kelly eliminate the guess work and draft the guy who;s charecter He knows and loves? Especially when he plays a premier position,is able to do the most things for a team, and brings things to our team that we dont have right now, and cant find later in the draft….I dont even understand how Dion on the board when we pick at 4, isnt an absolute NO BRAINER? I honestly dont..
You don’t form a rule based of a few (perceived) outliers. By necessity, you are looking at a biased sample.
Anyhow, in his first year of college football, Aldon Smith was:
2009 1st-Team Freshman All-American (College Football News, Phil Steele)
2009 Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year (Associated Press)
2009 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year (es)
2009 Hendricks Award Watch List
2009 2nd-Team All-Big 12 (Associated Press)
2009 Hon. Men. All-Big 12 (Coaches)
2009 Team Defensive Lineman of the Year Award
2009 Team Freshman of the Year Award
It’s not true that he wasn’t advanced for his age.
Wake was a classic late-bloomer and if you took him with a lottery selection, you would have had a massive bust on your hands throughout the first contract. Wake was class of 2005 and didn’t make an NFL start until 2009. He’s already 31.
JPP was First Team All Big East at the same age when Jordan managed two sacks in a season.
Regardless of how good Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman are as human beings, they will always the draw ire of Eagles fans worldwide, because instead of 2 more years of this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMM4KtEDP0s
We got 2 years of this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E29ytyjjL48
Ohhhh the HORROR!!!!
I will never…NEVER, EVER, FOREVER…forgive Joe Banner
Maybe we aren’t supposed to talk about it, but how long until we publicly recognize the Dawkins curse? Denial isn’t going to move us towards a cure, and, apparently, neither will a parade of 2nd rounders.
Nate Allen played well, then was injured, then was part of a bad defense with poor coaching where all the DBs looked like crap.
Give the guy a break. He was a good pick and he’s still got talent. I think he will change a lot of minds this year. But either way, he deserves another shot.
Plus, I read something on a very reliable Eagles news outlet explaining the Dawkins curse. That will make things tough for Nate too.
Just saw that Pat Summerall has died.
RIP Pat – your voice was one of the first I heard when we got the NFL in Europe back in the mid 80s
You’ll be missed.
another telling Dion Jordan clue to me was: Howie talked about how there is Oline depth in later rounds..but then he said, like always, pass rushers come off theboard early,, and you might not find value at that position later in this draft…DION! DION!…at todays press conference chip answered a question about our defensive scheme changes by using LB as an example: if you got a guy who can drop back and cover on the 1st two downs,then act like a DE on 3rd down….interesting
Tom: If Kenny Phillips is miraculously healthy, or we get someone with that type of centerfield cover range, am I crazy to think, we could instill packages using Dion like Kam Chancellor to give an added look to defenses?
If during a game, Dion can win like 3 one on one battles with a slot reciever, he can be a credible blitzer when he lines up over the slot the 4th time…Just thinking of all the various looks, and disguises we could do with a player like that. I cant even compare his versatility to anyone else…Crazy athlete.
Mingo is similar, but his frame isnt worldclass like Dion’s, and his body doesnt bend to get around that edge of a speed rush, anything close to Dion who has it down to a science just about.. once he learns countermoves, and strengthens his bullrush he will be very tough to defend. Olinemen have to get off the snap fast enough to get the right spot/position to block the pass rusher. With Dion’s blazing speed, and arm length, OT’s in the NFL will basically have to guess and anticipate what he is going to do to stop him, which leads to almost inevitably guessing wrong at some point, getting burnt bad, resulting in your QB getting killed and turning the ball over…Dion is just almost too fast off the snap for Olinemen to just be able to react to what he is doing, and still get in the position to stop him, before he beats you..
Sports science measured his spin move to be something insane like 6 times faster than Dwight Freeney’s(Is that even possible?), His 3 step exceleration coming out of the spin move was like 16mph…Just insane
The defensive coaches could do a variety of things with Dion. Could be SAM in base. Could be DE in Nickel/Dime. Could also be ILB and drop into coverage. Lots of options.
SOOOO many possibilities to give opposing QBs different looks
I have a question regarding the NFL draft broadcast. I’ve watched it on NFL.com the last few years, but it’s quite expensive (40$) and besides Mayock, there aren’t that great analysts in the studio. Can you recommend some other solution? Or do I just have to come to terms with the high price and bad coverage?
I don’t know what ESPN does online.
You can go to PE.com and watch there, but it will be 95% Eagles stuff.
Thanks. I think I’ll stick to nfl.com then. Even though Spadaro and Reese can be entertaining, they are not the greatest draftnicks to say the least.
Only 8 days to Christmas. Can’t wait!
Tommy, haven’t they ever asked you to join them for this? Reese is always fun to listen to and I’m not trying to kick Spadaro to the curb or anything, but he knows absolutely nothing about any of the players. It can be maddening at times. It’s a show I should absolutely love, but instead I’m always left pulling my hair out as Spadaro says for the umpteenth time, “never heard of him”. Getting you in there and having Spadaro take more of a host/facilitator role could really make this broadcast great.
Should we start a petition or something here? How do we make this happen?
I’ve watched online too but never with a fee.
Jeppe the draft is free on both NFL.com and ESPN.com. Of course if you already paid for NFL game pass like me, you get the draft in better quality.
http://www.vipbox.tv/sports/american-football.html
save this link. on draft day, visit this link and press the link of the program you want to watch. Basically it’s a free stream. You’re welcome
I can give you a great free sports stream website, but im not sure if its ok to post it here or not…If Tom says I can, I dont have a problem sharing it…if not, post your email and I will send it to you
Definitely, by all means feel free to email me… fayetnam@gmail.com, thanks!
I’d love to see us take Okoye with one of the 7th rounders, but I think he’ll go sooner. If I was running things, I’d be staying away from any QB in this draft before the 4th round. They are all question marks and they’re all going to be drafted too high.
Yay–H2H is back!!!
I thought it was very telling when Chip said that this mini camp will affect the draft. It seems likely based on his comments, if Brandon Graham does not look good dropping into coverage, an outside linebacker is most likely in the mix for pick #4. I’d assume Howie has gauged Graham’s trade market value for draft day. It seems odd when everyone talks about the possibility of Dion being picked at 4 that Graham will have no position on the team. A contingency plan has to be in place.
Tommy, what happens to Graham if we draft Dion? He’s got to be traded right?