Doubt is Okay
Posted: May 22nd, 2013 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 92 Comments »I was talking to a friend the other day. He’s not an Eagles fan, but the subject of Chip Kelly came up. I was going on and on about how much I like Chip and what he’s doing. My friend asked…”What if he fails?” This is absolutely a possibility. Almost all great coaches were hired were some element of risk.
Jimmy Johnson had no NFL experience when he got to the Cowboys. Many, including me, doubted his smaller, faster defenders could handle life in the NFL. Oops. Instead of failing, he changed the game of football.
Tom Landry, the man he replaced, was risky when he was hired. Tom played DB for the Giants from 1949-1955. He then ran the defense from 1956-59 before Dallas hired him in 1960. Landry was hired at the age of 35 and had no head coaching experience. He was then put in charge of an expansion team. What could have been a disaster turned into a dynasty.
Bill Walsh was 9-3 and 8-4 in 2 seasons at Stanford when the 49ers turned to him to be their head coach. Walsh said he would only take the job if given full control. The Niners easily could have said “Are you nuts?”, but instead gave it to him. Walsh made great decision after great decision and put together a dynasty.
Go outside the NFL for a minute. Mike Krzyzewski was coming off a losing season at Army when Duke hired him. For 3 years there was a lot of talk among Duke fans about firing the Polish guy. Probably a good thing that they kept him around.
Gregg Popovich is another military academy guy. He went to Air Force, that bastion of basketball greatness. Popp was an assistant for 5 years in the NBA after doing some coaching at the college level. The San Antonio Spurs hired him as their GM in 1994 in what was a crazy move. Popp didn’t have ideal qualifications for that job. Even crazier, he made himself the coach after firing coach Bob Hill early in the season. Popp hasn’t exactly revolutionized basketball, but he will go down as one of the great coaches in NBA history. He might win his 5th title this year.
Heck, think about Chip Kelly being hired by Oregon to be their new Offensive Coordinator in 2007. Kelly was running the offense at New Hampshire. He had no national profile. Mike Belotti could have easily looked for a bigger name or someone who knew the northwest area and could might have some recruiting ties. Instead, he took a risk. Good move.
There are plenty of risky hires that end up in failure. Steve Spurrier couldn’t make the jump to the NFL successfully. Young Patriots studs Eric Mangini and Josh McDaniels each fell on their face as head coaches. The Bucs promoted Raheem Morris to head coach before he was ready and that failed. The Skins brought Gibbs out of retirement and shelled out a fortune to have an all-star coaching staff. That group won a single playoff game.
There are also plenty of safe hires that don’t work out. I won’t even bother to go through these. Most coaches make a ton of sense when hired. And most fail.
The point here isn’t to go make a risky move. Each team has to look at its own situation and decide what is the right move. I think the Eagles needed some risk. If Andy Reid had left in 2005 or 2006, I would have said hiring a disciple of his was the way to go. Reid’s ideas were still working well at that point. There wasn’t a need for change. Tweaking, yes, but not changing.
After the last couple of years, the Eagles needed to hire someone very different from Reid. They needed to change the culture on the team. Things had just gotten stale. Chip Kelly is a risky hire, but he has brought change. So far things seem good on that front, but we still don’t know if the ideas will translate into wins. The follow-up question to that is if Kelly can sustain success. New ideas and new energy can spark a team, but that stuff won’t last for long. We saw that with Ray Rhodes.
Instead of fearing the risk with Kelly, you ought to embrace it. Every year we see hot shot assistant coaches from good teams get jobs. Most are gone in 3 or 4 years, despite the great resume. The Eagles rolled the dice with Kelly. They took a major chance. That was the right move, whether it pans out or not.
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Speaking of doubting Kelly…Jaws went on 97.5 and said that after studying a bunch of Oregon game tapes, he doesn’t think that offense will work in the NFL. Jaws is generally an Eagles homer so when he says this, he really believes it.
Jaws has said nothing but good things about Kelly himself. He seems to like Chip a lot. The problem is that Jaws is NFL through and through and he generally has doubts about college ideas working in the NFL. There is no surprise he has concerns about the Oregon offense. I do think Jaws is a bit too anti-college here. He talks about how Stanford shut down Oregon in 2012. They did. The 3 previous years Oregon put up 42, 52, and 53 on Stanford. Let’s cherry-pick a result to back up our conclusion.
Jaws also talks about how college players only have 20 hours a week to prepare. He then reduces that to 17 since 3 hours are eaten up by the game. I tend to doubt that games count against the 20 hours that players are allowed to practice/prepare during the week. I also think Jaws is missing a key point here. College coaches can watch tape and gameplan as much as they want. They only have the 20 hours to work with players. NFL coaches may work 100 hours a week, but NFL players do not study tape like that. They certainly prepare more than college kids, but I don’t think the difference for the average player is as pronounced as Jaws makes it sound. There are way too many mental mistakes in the NFL for me to believe the average player is in his playbook 12 hours a day.
I think we all agree with Jaws concerns on the Oregon offense. No one expects Kelly to run an exact replica of his Oregon offense with the Eagles. Kelly specifically hired an NFL guy (Pat Shurmur) to be his OC because he knew there would need to be some adjustments to the offense. Kelly hopes to take some Oregon concepts and marry them with NFL passing concepts and create an offense that does what he wants.
Chris Brown, who runs SmartFootball.com and is a college guru, responded to Jaws this way:
“Pretty clear what Jaws is setting up his storyline for Chip Kelly at Philly to be. If fails: “told you so.” If succeeds: “see he changed it””
Kelly’s ideas may fail. NFL defenses may eat him alive. We have to acknowledge that is possible.
I just think Chip is too smart to come in to this situation without a plan that will function. He is a football junkie. He has studied other teams and concepts. He’s not married to a single idea or philosophy. Spurrier wanted to show the NFL his offense could work. Reid wanted to throw the ball and show that his passing game could work. Mike Martz was the same way. Kelly is an offensive guru, but that is based on results, not style. Kelly’s strength is his adaptability and versatility. He’s got no agenda…other than winning.
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David Syvertsen reviewed the drafts for the Raiders and the Eagles.
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In case you missed it the other day, here is the video I cut up of WR Ifeanyi Momah from his one game in 2011. The QB play is bad. The guy got better over time, but wasn’t a gifted passer.
You still don’t see Momah cutting all that much. He is huge and plays through contact. I do wish he caught the ball better out away from his body.
There aren’t helpful practice reviews on him yet. People get caught up in his size and fail to get a good feel for him and how he looks. The shock factor is just overwhelming with a 6-7, 239 WR.
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The offense will be more like New England’s than Oregon’s.
While that seems to be the popular suggestion, I think I’d actually prefer more Oregon than NE. Outside of QB and TE (This position may even be a wash with the addition of Ertz/Casey and the marathon of surgeries to Gronk), I give the Eagles the advantage at every single offensive skill position. Point being, without a RB like Shady or athletic WRs, NE couldn’t run a more Oregon style offense even if they wanted to. What they do works because of a stud QB who can exploit the mismatches set up by their TEs and fast tempo. I think Belchick would run something closer to Oregon’s style if he had that personnel. Hopefully, like Bill, Chip will adapt his offense to what personnel he does have and create something of a hybrid.
Kelly will use the inside zone as his base run play (Alex Gibbs used the outside zone as the base play when Vick was there.) You don’t have to have a read option to run the inside zone–but if Vick is decisive enough, having that run threat is good.
Here’s a nice article by Chris Brown discussing the New England playcall system and the passing concepts.Remember, Kelly talked to Belichick about this stuff. I see Chip taking this to the next level with the hand signals–hyper speed:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8849439/how-terminology-erhardt-perkins-system-helped-maintain-dominance-tom-brady-patriots
Kelly plans to run more plays per game than New England.
appreciate this link man…Baldi keeps saying that Peyton manning is on a mission to figure out how he can learn to communicate plays like this
You are wlecome. To use the terminology you have to adopt the NE passing system too. Option routes, “passing concepts”, receivers learning all the positions(Jackson), multiple tight end sets (yes, maybe three at once!), no huddle, single word signals, hand signals on formations and routes–it all points to Ehrhardt-Perkins, New England style passing game ON STEROIDS!!!!–wedded to the Oregon running game.
Kelly is telling anyone who is listening what he’s doing. Jaws is clueless.
Totally agree…and a dash of Penn state/bill Obrien sprinkled in…
He should have signed with us last year.
lol…could you Imagine Peyton, if our Line reaches its potential, with these weapons and Chip backing him? YIKES!!!
Assuming Vick does win the QB competition, I’m wondering if Chip is going to give him a tip about sliding too.
thanks for the link.
Im assuming Foles wins the QB competition, and that Vick was basically rought in as Foles bait dog, used to sharpen Foles teeth (No…nvmd, who am I kidding, Pun intended!!!)…
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I dont see how its possible that with 4 months of training, Vick being able to command a high tempo, quick read, spread offense with option routes better than nick, and eventually he prob wont be running it better than Barkley either…I seriously do not understand how people see Vick as the annointed starter. Im not sure how fans even root for him to be…would we be in a better position if our young kid grew to be better than Vick, and beat him in a real competition? To this day, I never understood how so many fans and experts thought Vick was the clear cut best 2013 starting option, due to his legs…The ones that root for a 32yr old to beat out a 24yr old, I really dont understand…and Im not talking about rooting for who starts..Im talking about rooting for who will win the competition and genuinly be the better QB…Vick at most can be a franchise guy for 3 years. How can anyone not root for the guy who could be a QB the next 10 years. I dont know if Foles is that guy, but I certainly root for him to grow into that guy and prove it to us…Im not a Vick hater. Im actually proud of him as a man…but I will always root for whats best for the franchise!..and I dont see how anyone can even make a case for how, Vick emerging as the better QB is whats best for this Franchise..
Re: Kelly’s offense
How different was the offense Kelly ran at Oregon from what SF did with Kaepernick this year? Or what Wash did with RG3? I don’t think the Eagles will run that style (unless Vick finds a fountain of youth somewhere and Kelly shows him how to hold the ball so you don’t throw interceptions either), but I don’t know how he can say it won’t translate to the NFL. A better question is how long a team can maintain success running this, especially since your most important player is putting himself at risk on every play. But at least recent history shows it can work with the right personnel.
SF used a lot of pistol with Kaepernick. Kelly uses the shotgun. Harbaugh prefers a big, powerful OL. Kelly prefers athletes. There are differences.
Andy Reid hired Chris Ault, the former Nevada Head Coach and inventor of the PISTOL!!
http://espn.go.com/blog/afcwest/post/_/id/58302/reid-adds-more-coaching-firepower-in-ault
ROFLMAO
and Alex Smith is actually a good fit for that offense and its good to see that Reid is atleast embracing new stuff instead of just been stuck in his ways.
Smith ran Urban Meyer’s spread in Utah. In the Pistol, the QB lines up closer to the line of scrimmage (ala RGIII). The Shanahans like it becasue it adds the read option to their zone running game. Since Wash also runs WCO passing schemes, maybe that’s what Reid has in mind. He was running the stretch play here, so…. you may be right.
Chris Ault have said him self that Alex Smith would be a good pistol QB (lets remember Brandon Weeden ran it in college)
Pistol passing concepts are different though.
Agreed. Im actually very hapy for Reid. He clearly got too full of himself and complacent these last few years, which is a horrible combo to have. Years of success and thinking you were smarter than everyone else gave him the Midas Touch syndrom..where he just thought he could make any far out deision that ever crossed his mind, and it would turn into gold…Combine that with Stale, unevolved views and it made for a terrible fall from grace. Im really happy to see Andy make this move. Now that he is in another conference, after the hardships he went thru these past 2 years, I really do wish him a world of success except against us of course..and this hiring shows that he is atleast willing and trying to evolve and I doubt this would have ever happened until he was humbled!…Andy Reid did alot for making this franchise the organization that it is today and gave us a very exciting and competitive era of football(sorry, I can call not ever winning the superbowl when you had an elite team for years, a SUCCESS), but it was exciting, and competitive.
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I hated seeing how we treated him these past two years, especially after losing his son…but I cant say that I regret our Behavior,.We had NO CHOICE but to act that way as Fans, because we had an owner that wouldnt have pulled the plug on the andy era, until the fanbase and media gave him no choice…Fans did what they absolutely were forced to do. I blame Lurie for the horrific ending to a solid era of football(I will never use the world successful until I get a damn parade lol)..Now that we got the change we all craved, and Andy is out in the midwest playing in the AFC, I can wish him the best of Luck, and Im sincerely happy to see him go outside his box, and make solid moves that will atleast give him a chance to rejuvinate himself as a solid football coach, and damn good man!
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I think the greatest thing ever would be a Andy Reid tell all book about The Andy era of eagles football. It would be fascinating to get some truth from such a enigmatic coach…unfortunately Andy is not the tell all type
Go right to the source and ask the horse
He’ll give you the answer that you’ll endorse.
He’s always on a steady course.
Talk to Mr. Ed.
source: http://www.lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/mredlyrics.html
or insert Christopher Ault
A bit more detail than Tommy, all of the killer rushing attacks, Redskins, Seahawks, and 49’ers run everything off of the various flavors of inside rushes. Harbaugh and Shanahan used the pistol because it allows a dive and dive-fake, while not forgoing a quick strike short pass. Bevel (since Carroll is more of a defensive guy) is a bit more diverse in the types of rushes (if not the formations), and has more of a WCO feel in the passing game, which is why he seems to use the pistol less, to my recollection. More need to be either behind center or full shotgun.
What did Kelly do? As a general feeling, he’s basically not dissimilar to Andy Reid. Likes to get speed into space, so I think we’ll see plenty of stretch runs. However, I think that Kelly will recognize the primacy of up-the-guts runs, however the offense manages to achieve it. As a passing offense, I don’t really recall all that many deep balls. Oregon is pretty totally a rushing and short passing team, and by and large, the NE variant is simply not that different, particularly with last year’s greater focus on rushing from the Patriots.
How will Kelly alter his scheme? I guess that in this case, he intends to keep a lot of the Mornigwheg offense, tone down the passing by a lot, 20% or so, and steal also substantial elements of the Seahawks offense in the short part of the field.
As a practical matter, the Oregon offense is not sustainable in the NFL largely because it’s very dependent, much like the Triple Option, on simply breaking the defense–more men at the point of attack, boom, and away the RB goes. After hefty amounts of inside rushes. Defenses in the NFL are not really *breakable* like that, as a rule. Defenders shed blocks, are in position more often, etc. The NE offense is about setting up defenses, recognizing where the chunk plays are, and seizing them. I doubt Kelly will genuinely go with the NE offense–that offense is dictated by the necessity, given the lack of good WRs on the Patriots. It also depends on a very veteran offense to run well, from QB, line, and receivers. Kelly has more talent and less veteranhood.
Can Vick run something like the rushing or passing version of this spread offense? Uh, yeah. Basically by definition, you pretty much have to have a veteran QB to run it in such a fashion that you’re able to win consistently with it. As such, I seriously doubt there is a real competition at QB, and furthermore, if there is any competition, it’s between Barkley and Foles. Barkley will make the team regardless. It’s going to be about keeping or getting rid of Foles (hopefully with a nice trade). It’s honestly important to say and to note: Foles isn’t really competing against Vick. The Eagles are simply not as…dysfunctional…as the Vikings on this matter. Foles is not getting any job he doesn’t deserve. Therefore, what’s going on is exclusively about whether Foles gets better, especially in terms of fast decision making, more sound mechanics, and (so long as I’m wishing for a pony…) a faster release. This determines whether he supplants Vick, gets dangled as trade bait, or just cut.
These two links are actually kind of reflective of how I feel about QB things… Not really topical but I found them today…
http://www.foxsportsradio.com/pages/willeitner.html?article=10652331
This actually gets into why QBs are bad, a bit
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/47987810
This one basically details why QB *must* have good arm strength to be really worth a d*mn, not that Tanier ever really gets clear on that. You *must* be able to make deep passes in the NFL. If you don’t really have the arm strength, then you *must* throw the d*mn ball ****on time****. It’s not about hating Foles or loving Vick with me. I just don’t have to be very mean when I say that Foles isn’t really capable as an NFL starter. Some of you all can pretend otherwise, but absent either Foles improving a great deal unexpectedly or the Eagles caring about winning just as much as the Bengals do, the Eagles most likely will not start him. Go all Hitler in a Bunker if you will, but the odds are pretty far against him.
I think everyone agrees that a QB has to be able to make all the throws to be successful (although there have been a few weak armed exceptions). Not sure that the Eagles agree with your assessment that Foles (and Barkley for that matter) don’t possess enough arm strength to make those throws, tho. If they didn’t think so they would have moved Foles and made a different pick in the 4th round. Also, Foles had slightly better stats than Vick last year on throws of 20+ yards.
Even if Momah cant cut it as a WR…I think he will also have to fail as a DE/OLB, and TE before the Eagles give up on him…lol, Id try him as a deathbacker while we are at it lol…Wonder what kind of an impact he can have on ST? I dont think I ever remember seeing a guy with that Height/speed/length combo, trying to block punts and FG’s coming off the edge? Can anyone speak on that?
He has a long, long way to go from early reports. Whether they are accurate or what I don’t know. I saw one clip and was not impressed but here we are 2nd week of OTAs, no pads and he hasn’t played (which cuts both ways at this point in time).
You’re implying he is a lock and I don’t even think he is a lock for the practice squad yet. At the same time he could still win a spot. It is far too early to be deciding on it.
Whoa take it easy, we have OTAs, TC, preseason games – a LONG way to go.
see, we look at him very differntly. I dont look at the player that he is today at practice. It doesnt really even concern me. My belief is that you do not sign this kid, and give him not your average bonus, if you are willing to give up on him 6 months later. Cant practice squad him, because coaches will want to get a first hand look at a unique talent and quickly get snatched up.I think he has a very good chance to make the 2013 roster. Its a mistake to even talk about what he can give you in 2013 IMO..He is a unique, and extremely war Talent, that I dont think you give $50,000 dollars to, if you are going to give up on him 6 months later…I certainly could be wrong…But Im definitely not talking about Momah in terms of what he can be in 2013..I just dont look at young players like him. I worry about what they might be able to grow into 3 years from now…Even the 4th pick in the draft, could sit on a bench for 2 years as far as Im concerned, as long as by year 3, 4 at the latest he grows into an absolute stud…
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I dont think its far fetched to find a Niche for Momah on ST, so you can justify seeing what you can turn him into with two offseasons of work. I think Momah is atleast Safe til August of 2014. I dont think he gets $50k unless you are ok with a two offseason grace period. Just Too Raw and Inexperienced to give him that money without being ok with him being a project who probably wont contribute much in 2013….I certainly could be wrong tho….Im not exactly sure why oyu would read those few sentences I wrote and interpet it as me having this immediate faith in Momah…I just dont think he would even be here at that price if there was a chancxe that you pull the plug on him 5 months later…We can certainly agree to disagree
Thought they gave Momah 80,000?
I’ll raise you to $85,000.
http://igglesblitz.com/philadelphia-eagles-2/more-on-the-wrs/
Geez..thanks for the correction. I thought he was a lock for 2 offseason of development when I only thought we gave him $50K lol…at 85k I feel even stronger about it lol
I fully agree that the Eagles would be more focused on what Momah can provide long term rather than singularly focused on what he would provide this year, but I think you are significantly overrating the $85,000 signing bonus. That is not a very difficult contract to walk away from. It was a very different scenario, but just this season, the Eagles walked away from a $4 M contract with Nnamdi. To me, the significance of the $85 K is more tied to their interest and ability to BRING Momah here than their interest and ability to KEEP Momah here if that makes sense. In other words, the Eagles were willing to pay the slight premium for the UDFA for the opportunity to have the first extended look at him. They will make an assessment on him based on what they see, and if they like what they see, they’ll keep him, if not, they’ll cut him. Momah’s contract doesn’t even equate to the top 51 contracts on the roster right now, so the reality is, he is simply not guaranteed much if anything because of that bonus.
The other thing that I think you are underrating is the value a player must be capable of providing in order to make the 53 man roster. Momah doesn’t need to be a guy that will be active every week, but there are simply not enough roster spots available to keep a guy that doesn’t show you significant ability, even in year 1. Momah will absolutely need to earn a roster spot, whether that is by proving he can translate his size and measurables into actual football ability or excelling at STs. He certainly may prove to be capable of doing that, and certainly, we would all love to see that happen. Still, based on the way you are talking about him, I think you are taking that aspect for granted especially considering that he has yet to prove he can be a highly talented player, even at the college level.
Finally, your time line of 3 to 4 years is very true for an early round pick, but it is not the same for an UDFA. The difference is the investment you make in those players. $85 K in the grand scheme of things is simply not that big of an investment. If he is not able to get onto the field by year 2, he will be a practice squad player at best. You just don’t hang on to a player for 3 years if he isn’t going to make contributions on the field when you don’t have all that much invested in him.
you could easily be right with the monetary outlook..but much of my premise was under the assumption that he can find a niche and contribute on ST…I mean, it doesnt really take a brain surgeon to play ST..Athletic ability, THE DESIRE and WILL to do it, and you probably do have to be wired a certain way to do some ST roles…if I guy that Tall and Fast cant atleast figure out how to make an impact potentially blocking kicks and finding a way to contribute on ST in some capacity, then he is probably hopeless anyway, so I wont disagree…I just dont really see much of a chance that he can be so worthless on ST that we cant justify keeping him til atleast August of 2014..Cant wait to start getting more reports as the media see’s him more at practice…But Man, will a preseason ever be soo fascinating? Every fan has atleast 20 guys they are dying to see..I cant remember ever being so hype about pre-season..I always go to evry preseason game(flight deck), never forget the one against the Patriots when the signing of Vick was announced in the 2nd quarter…Most interesting preseason in Eagles fandom? lol
It’s a numbers game. Momah is not the only player but there’s not much to say. He will have to earn his spot as Kelly has said about everyone. He’s adamant about it.
This is another Kelly mystery – how’s he going to use the practice squad? How many guys there for the future vs guys there for additional depth?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Momah get one of those really bad hangnails and have to go on IR for the season.
that dreaded hang nail sounds like a legit possibility
However, I do think that If momah blatantly fails as a WR, we will give him looks at TE and OLB before we cut him
If you need a laugh. NSFW.
http://eaglesblog.net/2013/05/oh-my-god/
Haha. Those kids are going places.
Having not had a Mel Blount to practice against at BC (like Carmichael did at Southern U), Momah has a steep hill to climb in spite of his size.
But you have to love the idea of a 6’7″ 235lb WR who can run. Now, if he just catch . . . .
Well, CBs cant be anywhere near as physical now, so a tall physical WR should have it easier now a days
Can you imagine Carmichael playing now (I should say, a Carmichael clone who’s 23 year’s old).
Plax Burress wasn’t very defensible. Nor would Carmichael be.
But Momah has so much to learn.
AC…I am way too young to know this, but what kind of prospect was Harold coming out of college..I read your post the other day about his college team, so I figured you would be a good person to ask. Obviously in terms of being a polished prospect, Momah isnt even in the same stratosphere..but how long did it take Harold, after being drafted to grow into the player that younger Eagles fans like myself( that didnt get to watch much of him), knew him to be?…and did Harold ever make ST impact?
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Curious to know has there ever been a 6’7 guy, with that kind of speed that has had success blocking punts and FG’s coming off the edge? Usually I see Fast safetys, or fast WR’s coming off the edge to block kicks..and you see the 6’7 guys coming up the middle to block kicks..Is there a precedent for successful 6’7/long players blocking kicks coming off the edge?
He was drafted in the 7th round (there was more rounds, but still a 7th round pick is low)
yeah I knew that…Im more so speaking, from the time he was drafted, how long did it take him to develope into the player we all know him as? Rookie year? year 2? 3? 4? When did he really arrive?
I think a guy like Carmichael would be Megatron like.
When you think about how physical CBs was allowed to be back then, its a wonder how Harold Jackson was so good back then.
thats a scary good point lol
Ramses Barden was 6’6 and a 4th rd pick, never did much in four years in New York. Size is grossly overrated with WRs, size and speed is better, size, speed, the ability to run routes and extend and catch the ball with soft hands is much better. Problem for big WRs is they often lack a burst off the line, the ability to cut sharply, and the body control to adjust to off target passes – which is why they get converted to move TE!
Frankly, Carrier to me is a better prospect, but Momah is a good enough athlete that he may earn a spot on the back of the roster based on potential, but he’ll have to show a lot of progress, potential is fine as a rookie, but you’d better show the possibility of making a significant contribution in year 2.
Couldn’t agree more that a little doubt is healthy, and there should be. But Chip is a on another level as you have pointed out. Football is his life. The guy is a proven winner on a big stage, and the fact that he did so without superior talent leads me to believe that Chip will have success on the next level.
The most intriguing thing to me is what happened in the 2011 Oregon v. Stanford game. Chip was able to beat Harbaugh in what was being called a ‘chess match’ in the fishduck video. He is able to call the right play and adjust on the fly, the ability to think quickly. Reid never showed that ability, in my mind he was able to think up a gameplan that generally worked, but it is teaching and coaching on the fly that makes you a successful coach.
good stuff james. I agree. With so much of the silly media thinking the Genius of Kelly is a ZR offense, I agree that his Genius is the quick twitched, situational coaching on the fly. People adore him for the ZR offense, but his overall knowledge of the game, and the ability to adapt, and not be stubborn is what really excites me about him…You can be well versed in football knowledge and every scheme in the book, but if you cant make the right counter adjustment fast enough, on the fly, what good is it? If you are too invested in a scheme to a stubborn fault, you will often ignore your well versed, football knowledge and pigeon toe yourself in terms of options for adjustments…I dont get blown away by having Matt barkley on the roster. I think it was a great pick in the 4th round, but I wont even start thinking about the kid til the next offseason..However, when he was drafted, my Chip kelly excitement went through the roof. He said he was flexable, and not married to schemes…and when he drafted Barkley he put his money where his mouth was..and that too me was so much more important than whatever I actually think of Matt Barkley the player(which I do like his chances)..but before I even get to the chip kelly X’s and O’s..Im still blown away by the way he is running the football side of the organization, and the prospects of having a foundation based in Common sense!…This man has made, so many drastic changes..and we are all like, WHAT? and the moment he explains it with easy to understand common sense…we are all like Ohhhhhhh. What does it say that there is so much change, yet its even hard for the most jaded, synical fanbase in sports to nt get excited after getting smacked across the face with the common sense and the science behind every change lol EXCITING TIMES Lie ahead. Cant say how great Chip will be, but I dont see an obvious ceiling to his level of potential success..and after about 5 years, I started feeling like Andy was a great coach, but being a slave to his philosophies and gameday coaching achiles heal was a ceiling short of a parade that we would never be able to breakthrough. Its soo early to tell, but after 8 more years of Andy, not being able to see that Ceiling any more is so refreshing, even if its just for the time being since that ceiling has barely had a chance to rear its UGLY face at this point…
Def going to be exciting, probably because deep down we know that he has been successful, that he can dominate a game, and that he can outmatch a great coach.
Re: Harold Carmichael – Southern U, 1971
GEagle asked “what kind of prospect was Harold coming out of college”?
Carmichael was a team leader and a star at the historically black Southern U back in the ’68-’70 period.
Southern U, and the other HBCs, were loaded with the some great NFL talent. At that time, the lesser lights of the SEC had just started to integrate. Same with the old Southwest Conference (composed of UTexas, SMU, Arkansas, Tx A&M, Tx Tech, TCU).
So teams like Southern, Grambling, Jackson State, Prairie VIew, Texas Southern, North Texas, Alcorn State, and Miss Valley State had some great talent.
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But the scouts’ evaluations were generally, um, short-sighted. Consider the talent coming out of the SWAC — players against whom Carmichael played.
Carmichael’s teammates at Southern included . . . HOF CB Mel Blount, All Pro OLB Isiah Robertson, Pro Bowl CB Kenny Ellis (Packers), LB Al Beauchamp (Bengals), DE Richard Neal (Saints), MLB Harold McClinton (Redskins), and DT Jim Osborne (Bears). .
Carmichael’s opposition at Gambling included . . . HOF WR Charlie Joiner (Oilers Bengals, Chargers, QB James Harris (Bills, Rams), DE Billy Newsome (SB winning ’70 Colts), CB Delles Howell (Saints), WR Frank Lewis (Steelers) . . . and the Eagles’ own 1st Rd pick in ’71, DE Richard Harris [MVP of the old NFL Champion v. College All Stars Game].
Jackson State had Carmichael’s future Eagles teammate, All Pro WR Harold Jackson (Eagles, Rams, Pats), All Pro TE/WR Richard Caster (Jets), Pro Bowl TE Jerome Barkum (Jets), future Eagles/Pats CB Johnny Outlaw, future Eagles CB Richard Harvey,
Texas Southern turned out All Pro DE Julius Adams (Patriots), Pro Bowl RB Willie Eillison (Rams) — who was the first RB to break the great Jim Brown’s single-game rushing record, All Pro WR Ken “00” Burrough (Saints/Oilers), CB Lloyd Mumphord (Dolphins), another Carmichael Eagles’ teammate in DT Ernie Calloway, and DT Earnie “Fats” Holmes (Steelers’ 3x SB winner).
At North Texas, there was a DT named Mean Joe Greene, WR Ronnie Shanklin (Steelers 2x SB winner), and All Pro DE Cedrick Hardman (49ers).
Alcorn State had DEs Joe Owens and Larry Estes (Saints both), CB Richard Sowells (Jets), CB Willie Alexander (Oilers), LB Floyd Rice (Oilers/Raiders).
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The quality of talent among just these six teams was really impressive.
Back to GEagle’s question. The first point I’d make is that among all these great players, there were several 1st Rd picks. DT Joe Greene and WR Frank Lewis by the Steelers; DE Cedrick Hardman by the 49ers; the Jets took Jackson State teammates Richard Caster and Jerome Barkham in ’71 and ’72; DE Richard Harris by the Eagles [ugh!]; and WR Kenny Burrough by the Saints.
How did Carmichael stack up? Much like today, the NFL didn’t have 6’7″ 220 lb WRs in the early ’70s. Some teams tended to like big WRs. But nothing like Carmichael.
Carmichael also wasn’t nearly as fast as the other WRs coming out of the HBCs — like Harold Jackson, Kenny Burrough, and Richard Caster.
Nor was Carmichael especially heavy, so that he he could easily fit at TE — which is where he played for the most part his first couple of years in Philadelphia. (If you see highlights of Carmichael from ’71 and ’72 versus ’80, you’ll see a lighter, leaner Carmichael in the later years.)
So the scouting report on Carmichael was too tall and light to be a TE, not fast enough to be a WR.
But Carmichael was extremely productive in college — as he turned out to be with the Eagles. He also has enormous hands. And he could get up on DB’s after just 2 or 3 steps.
Should he have been a 7th Rd pick? No. More likely a 3rd or 4th Rd’r. But times were different then.
Carmichael came to the Eagles with a lot of experience against, what history shows, were some of the very, very good players during the ’70s.
He made an immediate impact at Eagles’ training camp in 1971. His talent, it turned out, suddenly had become obvious. And there was no question by opening day that Carmichael was going to be an important part of the Eagles offense . . . although at TE.
By 1973, Carmichael was a full time WR. He led the NFL in receiving, made All Pro, and reached his first Pro Bowl.
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Momah, unfortunately, didnt’ spend 4 years at WR. Practicing against a HOFer and Pro Bowler. Nor playing against high-level NFL players.
Dude…You are a BOSS for this!!! Much appreciated
Remarkably in-depth, and fascinating. Cheers.
I’d echo Clyde Side on the Eagles running New England South as their system. It is well established by real football minds (Mike Tomlin, Pat Kirwan, Aaron Rodgers) that read-option is low grade trash suited for low IQ JV football players and is the total fad / gimmick / flavor of the month. NFL D-coordinators are going to leave RG3, Kaepernick, and Scam Newton crying as they shut down that junk week after week.
I fully believe that Jaws knows this and is hung up on how much of that system Kelly ran at Oregon. I also fully believe that Kelly knows (from his work with the Patriots) that read-option is garbage for a real NFL team and will work on the following ideals:
– play fast
– run a lot of no huddle
– run the football a lot
– win by having your QB be a PASSER not a scramble bum who is an injury waiting to happen
I 100% trust Chip Kelly to not fall into the ever-hurt QB trap that read-option creates.
When Foles or Barkley are in there, you’ll see the real system. When one of those two wins the job (and Vick’s injury prone, idiotic, turnover factory self is sent packing), it’ll be a fun system to watch. We won’t be the Patriots, but we’ll be doing the right things and playing the right way as Larry Brown used to say.
That’s a bit strong with the read-option. It caught teams off-guard last year and they will adjust, but it has been great in college for years and nobody has “solved” it. Don’t assume so quickly it will definitely be a thing of the past.
I think it’s more a matter of degree and personnel.
If you have Newton, Kaepernick et al, bigger QBs who run 4.5, you might run the read option 10-15 times a game and let them keep 6 times a game (100 rushes a season plus scrambles).
If you have Alex Smith or Foles, you run it a half dozen times a game to give the defense something to think about and have the QB keep it a couple times a game when the defense completely ignores them.
Like any scheme, how you use it depends on your personnel.
@ Tommy:
I’ll stay strong on being anti read-option as I continue to use Pat Kirwan as my guide on the subject. On his show on Sirius he’ll often point out that read-option is going to have a limited shelf life as a system due to the number of hits taken by a QB. Considering that the rules don’t protect the QB as an active runner / faker in the same manner as they do as a passer / slider, the shots on guys are going to take their tolls.
I totally understand your point about it’s life in college, but the NFL is different. How many games has Air Force won over the years while no NFL team is taking on that system. Same with the Navy / Georgia Tech business.
I guess why I really hate the read-option so much is that I’ve seen too many of our running / scrambling QBs get body bagged here over the years and I’d like to see a guy who is able to deliver the football through the air fast enough to avoid a lot of hits and/or draw a lot of flags. The refs have never protected our running QBs with enough flags, so I don’t wish to see Kelly put in a system that’ll keep us in that type of deficit.
Read option QBs does not take more hits than a standard pocket passer, so what is real issue? I mean look at Vick, almost all of his injuries in Philly has been when he was standing in the pocket and not when he scrambled.
Also if you are a smart QB like Rusell Wilson there slides and round out of bounds, he wont even take hits when carrying the football.
Also Air Force and Georgia Tech is using the old triple option that have been here for decades, where Kelly uses a newer form of the IZR and OZR that are already a part of todays NFL (the Broncos won 2 Super Bowls behind the zone read)
The Broncos with Elway? They had a zone blocking system but I don’t remember Elway as a zone read option QB much at all.
I never said option, basics of the IZR and OZR is not the QB “blocking” a defender or having the option of running with it him self.
The IZR and OZR is how the OL blocks and that the RB has to read the zones and hit the zone with no defender.The wrinkle that Kelly is using is that he is “blocking” a defender with the QB.
Yes your post was extremely confusing since the entire post was about read option QB and then you ended with that which is why I questioned it.
yea, I got it all mixed up. I for some reason thought this part was a reply to guy asking about the IZR and OZR above. Sorry for that.
It is easy to confuse zone read and zone read option sometimes which is why I was trying to clarify it. Everyone can get it confused and I think it’s important to clarify it which is what you were trying to do I think.
People don’t even realize Alabama ran the IZR, they think of it as just a power blocking scheme but they ran the IZR and Barrett Jones would just practically stand in the way sometimes (expertly) and they’d have a 20 yard run inside.
Yea, thats why the hire of Jeff Stoutland is such an underrated move. The guy is an expert in the IZR and one of the brightest young OL coaches in football
zone blocking scheme, not zone read whatevers, there was one RB, and the QB ain’t running either.
Vick got hurt trying to go for the score against the Redskins, and got concussed against Dallas–though I really think he’d been ignoring milder concussions until the big one hit on what was milder contact.
In Atlanta, Vick wasn’t really that much of an injury risk–tho’ the worst thing that could happen to him (aside from being stupid enough to fund dog fights and stuff), was the broken leg in ’03. Had Vick not broken that leg, he plays in 2003, and Reeves stays as coach, and Vick is kept in an appropriate passing scheme rather than crazy iterations of WCO that doesn’t really fit his talents.
Zone blocking or zone read, its at its basis the same. As I said to RC5000 down below, the basics of the zone read is not the QB having the option to run with the ball or “blocking” the defender, but its describes away the OL is blocking and what the RB has to read and in a zone blocking scheme or zone read, the RB reads the zones in the defense and hits the one without a defender.
Yes we know all that and that is a good explanation. The problem was you were discussing zone read option QBs and then brought up the Broncos who had Elway at QB and he was not a zone read option QB.
I dunno about that Anders. Theoretically, you should NEVER have to worry about your QB taking hits outside the pocket. You see an athletic guy like Aaron Rogers, who does not have the athletic ability that Vick was blessed with, leave the pocket all the time, pick up chunks of yards with his legs, and intelligently slides and NEVER takes a hit. We have the one BONEHEAD in the history of the NFL that cant get this concept in his thick friggin skull…Yes, Vick has been injured more in the pocket, but plenty of his injuries came when he took off. Just think about the run against the skins 2 years back, when he dove head first, defender landed on his ribs, and that was it for Vick….Im sorry, but in my humble oppinion, it takes one DUMB SOB to get injured outside the pocket. Its the most sensless injury in all of sports..why? because IT DOES NOT NEED TO HAPPEN! Its avoidable! SLIDE you idiot! lol….and if you publicly state that you dont know how to slide, or that its too hard…SMH!!! lol
Finally got a chance to watch the Kenny Phillips interview..He really didnt say anything special, but I came away from it with a good feeling. Media did a great job, they really hammered him about his knee and how much left he has in him..Basically they were talking to him with a tone of serious doubt(which in this case was very responsible media work and they should all be applauded), asking does he still have his quickness, how he probably didnt expect his career to go like this..Basically questioning whether he could resemble anything close to his former self and play consistently another 4 years…and his Demeanor kind of gave me a good feeling..I was like he couldnt believe how these people were doubting him, like he had a trick up his sleeve..he was like 4 years?(sounding disrespected), I plan on playing another 7…and he seemed like he meant it. He also seemed like he was genuinly but quietly expecting to have a big year…and another good reportiong job was someone bringing up how his teamate Antrel Rolle had the best year when switching to the 4-3U..and Kenny was aware of it, and Antrel has talked to him about it and how Antrel expects him to have a big year in it…He likes that this defense wont just keep him in centerfield all game long…Confirmed that safeties are interchangable and both will be asked to play in the box, and in coverage…
Basically, this interview led me to 2 possible conclusions:
1) Phillips is either delusional and is primed for a serious rude awakening..
2)Or the man knows something we dont know(health wise), and we might have gotten a steal
I think Chip will be very fluid his first season. No matter what he’s drawn up on paper, he has no NFL experience, so he doesn’t have the intuitive feel for what works and what won’t – and Shurmer can only help to some extent, because much of what Chip wants to do is new for Shurmer. So I see a lot of trial and error, starting in TC through the bye week, at which point Chip will discard what’s been proved unworkable and tighten up his schemes.
I also think that some players can make him rethink his size/athleticism requirements if they play well, Cole, Graham, Boykin, Coleman, Kelly at RT, etc. I don’t get that Chip is a rigid, I’m gonna force my way on the league kind of guy, rather, a “let’s try this, if it doesn’t work, on to plan B” guy. That is, he’s a risk taker, and in 2013 there is almost no downside to taking risks.
I agree! He just needs to avoid repeating the mistakes of others; i.e. keeping Vick and/or any read-option plays.
It will be interesting. I like that he didn’t bring an OC from college or an OC that has run the read-option that shows he’s willing to be flexible and realizes he needs someone who understands nfl passing game.
I just finished watching the FishDuck breakdowns of the IZR and OZR. I would like to see an analysis of why the Oregon offense can’t work as is in the NFL. We can say that defenders are bigger, stronger, and faster and so it can’t work, but that can’t be the totality of the answer. How would you scheme to stop that offense?
This tells you how its possible to stop the read option
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/43197/stanford-shows-oregon-its-own-brand-of-old-school-football
Basicly you beat the read option if you win the LOS. Thats why a team like the Niners got such advantage because they got one of the best OLs in the NFL (the Eagles do too when everybody is healthy)
First, the IZR and OZR are not necessarily the read option. Second, you can defeat any offense by winning at the LOS. I don’t think that really explains why this offense can’t work in the NFL.
This has been discussed ad nauseum for months I am sure Tommy and many others have it archived. It is not really likely to be the base offense since Foles is here and Kelly drafted Barkley though it will be used some.
Defense needs to win the battles and have some discipline and watch for misdirection. You also ideally want a QB who is as big a threat as possible so the defense has to pay attention to the QB so as far as the Eagles go I don’t think Foles or Barkley would be that much of a threat they could run it as a primary offense.
Chip wrote about how critical that is in a document I read somewhere on fishduck that Kelly himself wrote but I looked at this stuff so long ago.
This is exactly what I’m talking about. Doesn’t every defense need to “win battles, have discipline, and watch for misdirection?” In fact it seems that built into this offense is the idea of attempting to use your discipline against you. Why is it that this offense can’t succeed in the NFL? This isn’t like Spurrier’s offense, where he wasn’t leaving in enough people to block.
He’s definitely going to run the izr and the ozr and he’s going to spread the defense out as much as he can whether its a run or pass play most of the time. That’s the entire philosophy Kelly has had from the time he ran his spread passing offense at UNH to Oregon’s more run based and IZR and OZR offense.
He will put a passing offense on top of it with WCO and some Patriots offense and then there will also be option routes with the QB and receivers.
No one knows all the exact plays and who the QB is going to be and what changes and adjustments Kelly will make with his playbook , etc. He doesn’t even know yet.
I like Jaws, but that’s actually what I didn’t like about his comments. He didn’t really give a valid reason why he didn’t think it would work. His reasoning is that he doesn’t see “NFL passing concepts” in this offense. That’s really the same as saying it won’t work because other NFL teams don’t do it. He may be right, that it won’t work, but I would have loved to have heard a more detailed/specific analysis from him.
He’s right, there are no real NFL grade passing concept w/the Ducks. Thing is, obviously, an NFL grade passing attack will be installed on top. So Jaws isn’t really saying anything worthwhile.
My positive thoughts about Chip are focused on his mind and his thought process in games. As well as his ability to get players to execute which falls heavily on his coaching. This FishDuck video illustrates how he counters defenses with the element of surprise…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3T2W60tlZY
Does the read option have to incorporate the option of the QB running?
yes, thats why it got the word option in it. If you are talking about the IZR and OZR from fishduck.com, no it does not need the qb to have the option of running or “blocking” a defender.
The IZR and OZR really only tells you how the OL is blocking and what the RBs read is.
Take a team like Alabama, a team many would say is the opposite of Oregon, but in fact they also ran the IZR. All the IZR tell us is that the OL is blocking man to man and the RB is reading the zones in the defense and has to hit the hole with no defender. Also a team like Denver under Elway ran the OZR too two Super Bowls.
Thanks for the reply… Next question Oregon ran a triple option, take away the qb option… is it still an option read?
You could run triple option without the QB read, but just as a direct handoff or snap to the guy coming across and then that guy could have an option, I dont know what that would be honestly.
The qb could read the defender (de) and either hand it off to shady or djax in motion. The option is on the qb on who to hand off or pitch to. Also can play action be a read option, or is that more addible so recievers/lineman aren’t illegally blocking down field?
Actually you can both fake a hand or then throw it
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8287610/packaged-plays-rethinking-concept-modern-play-calling
There was also a comment from OTAs that the eagles was doing some read option with Foles and Barkley where they read the DE and if they had to keep it, they rolled out like a bootleg pass instead of running.
Yep that’s the article where I had first heard about the trend. I just couldn’t remember if it was grantland or buried somwhere on smartfootball
So in essence, the qb doesn’t have to be a running threat for the read option?
no
Hopeful Jaws gets in tune. and understands he doen’t understand.
Not necessarily. Alot of the Air Raid offenses will have a zone read play that if the end takes away the back, the quarterback throws into a bubble screen.
True and we got reports from OTA saying that in this case the QB will roll out like a bootleg or throw a bubble screen, so it seems that a lot of air raid parts will be in this offense (receivers having options routes etc.)
After mortally fearing the thought of yet another year of the AR Follies, I eagerly embrace any and all doubts associated with Chip Kelly.