The whole point in obsessing on who will be the Eagles QB is that we want the team to have the right guy to help the team get back to being a Super Bowl contender. To be a Super Bowl team, you need a top shelf QB. But how/where do you find them?
The game of football has changed.
1992 – Troy Aikman – DAL – #1 overall pick
1993 – Troy Aikman – DAL – #1 overall pick
1994 – Steve Young – SF – #1 overall pick of the Supplemental Draft
1995 – Troy Aikman – DAL – #1 overall pick
1996 – Brett Favre – GB – #33 overall pick
1997 – John Elway – DEN – #1 overall pick
1998 – John Elway – DEN – #1 overall pick
1999 – Kurt Warner – STL – UDFA
2000 – Trent Dilfer – BAL – #6 overall pick
2001 – Tom Brady – NE – 199th overall pick
2002 – Brad Johnson – TB – 227th overall pick
2003 – Tom Brady – NE – 199th overall pick
2004 – Tom Brady – NE – 199th overall pick
2005 – Ben Roethlisberger – PIT – 11th overall pick
2006 – Peyton Manning – IND – #1 overall pick
2007 – Eli Manning – NYG – #1 overall pick
2008 – Ben Roethlisberger – PIT – 11th overall pick
2009 – Drew Brees – NO – #32 overall pick (was 2nd Rder that year)
2010 – Aaron Rodgers – GB – 24th overall pick
2011 – Eli Manning – NYG – #1 overall pick
2012 – Joe Flacco – BAL – 18th overall pick
The funny thing about the 3 Manning SB titles is that they were won more by defense than offense. The defenses allowed 17, 14 and 17 points in those games. Obviously Peyton and Eli were critical to the teams getting to that point, but it just seems odd that 2 top shelf QBs didn’t lead offensive explosions in the Super Bowl games their teams actually won.
Top 10 QBs taken since 1999
1999 – Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith
2000 – none
2001 – Michael Vick
2002 – David Carr, Joey Harrington
2003 – Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich
2004 – Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers
2005 – Alex Smith
2006 – Vince Young, Matt Leinart
2007 – JaMarcus Russell
2008 – Matt Ryan
2009 – Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez
2010 – Sam Bradford
2011 – Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert
2012 – Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill
2013 – none
Your chances are about 50-50 on getting a guy that you can truly call a good pick. And even some of those guys (Carson Palmer) aren’t going to lead your team to the promised land or ever develop into elite players.
The Eagles were lucky to get Donovan McNabb in 1999.
I think a major reason some QBs totally fail is that they are taken by teams devoid of talent. David Carr had a terrible O-line. Tim Couch lacked blocking and weapons. Others joined organizations with poor infrastructure and they didn’t have the personality to handle that. Russell was too immature for Oakland. Harrington was too nice for the Lions.
Obsessing on the Eagles getting a Top 10 pick to secure the stud QB of the future isn’t such a slam dunk idea.
You can find good QBs in other spots. Look at the SB winners above. A reader posted this nugget in the previous comments section. Here are the QBs for NFC playoff teams if the season ended today.
1) Seahawks – Russell Wilson (75th pick)
2) Saints – Drew Brees (32nd pick)
3) Packers – Aaron Rodgers (24th pick)
4) Cowboys – Tony Romo (Undrafted)
5) 49ers – Colin Kaepernick (36th pick)
6) Lions – Matthew Stafford (1st pick)
No one is advocating that you look for the next Tom Brady in the 6th round or that you count on finding the next Russell Wilson in the 3rd round. The point is that you don’t need a Top 10 pick to find the right guy.
Part of having the right guy is having the right situation for the guy to step into. Peyton Manning entered an offense that had Marvin Harrison, Marshall Faulk, LT Tarik Glenn, and TEs Ken Dilger and Marcus Pollard. That sure made life easy on Peyton. Joey Harrington had WR Az Hakim, WR Bill Schroeder, RB James Stewart and LT Jeff Backus. Which group would you rather have?
Aaron Rodgers became a good player in part because he was given time to develop and then took over a team that was talented. Russell Wilson was given a great running game and defense. There isn’t pressure on him to win games. Can you believe that Wilson has never thrown 40 passes in an NFL game? He’s only thrown 35 or more twice. Nick Foles had 3 games last year with more than 40 attempts and he only had 6 starts.
There really is a strong argument to be made for building the overall team and not selling out to get an early QB. You do want one in the 1st round if at all possible, but the guy doesn’t have to come early.
I think the Eagles have a pretty good infrastructure in place. Chip Kelly is a strong coach. There is some special talent in LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson. Zach Ertz is talented young TE. The OL has some good pieces on it. The defense is a work in progress, but there are some good young players on that side of the ball. Compare that to a QB joining the Jaguars. That player will have tremendous pressure on him. Check out that roster. That’s a bad team.
I’d love to have a QB in place for 2014 that we felt could be the answer, but I could live with the team giving Foles or Barkley a chance to play and focusing on building up the overall talent of the team. There is no one strategy that a team must follow. This isn’t a case of find a QB or else. The coach and GM must see who is available and then come up with a plan that works for that team. Heck, even if the Eagles draft a QB early, there is no guarantee he’ll be given the starting job right away.
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The Giants won a very ugly game tonight. Will that get them back their mojo? I have my doubts. The Vikings looked awful. Josh Freeman made Nick Foles look solid.
The upside is that we didn’t want the Giants getting too high a pick. Nobody wants them getting Jadeveon Clowney.
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Another note on QBs…there could be a lot of competition for them this year. Jay Cutler is a FA at the end of the year and isn’t a lock to return to the Bears. Sam Bradford is hurt and hasn’t been impressive. Matt Schaub could be done in Houston and the Texans might not stick with their current guys. Tampa might need one. The Vikings too. Heck, there are still more teams that could take a QB early.
Could make for a very interesting offseason.