Building a Juggernaut Team

Posted: October 22nd, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 151 Comments »

The whole point in obsessing on who will be the Eagles QB is that we want the team to have the right guy to help the team get back to being a Super Bowl contender. To be a Super Bowl team, you need a top shelf QB. But how/where do you find them?

The game of football has changed.

1992 – Troy Aikman – DAL – #1 overall pick
1993 – Troy Aikman – DAL – #1 overall pick
1994 – Steve Young – SF – #1 overall pick of the Supplemental Draft
1995 – Troy Aikman – DAL – #1 overall pick
1996 – Brett Favre – GB – #33 overall pick
1997 – John Elway – DEN – #1 overall pick
1998 – John Elway – DEN – #1 overall pick
1999 – Kurt Warner – STL – UDFA
2000 – Trent Dilfer – BAL – #6 overall pick

2001 – Tom Brady – NE – 199th overall pick
2002 – Brad Johnson – TB – 227th overall pick
2003 – Tom Brady – NE – 199th overall pick
2004 – Tom Brady – NE – 199th overall pick
2005 – Ben Roethlisberger – PIT – 11th overall pick
2006 – Peyton Manning – IND – #1 overall pick
2007 – Eli Manning – NYG – #1 overall pick
2008 – Ben Roethlisberger – PIT – 11th overall pick
2009 – Drew Brees – NO – #32 overall pick (was 2nd Rder that year)
2010 – Aaron Rodgers – GB – 24th overall pick
2011 – Eli Manning – NYG – #1 overall pick
2012 – Joe Flacco – BAL – 18th overall pick

The funny thing about the 3 Manning SB titles is that they were won more by defense than offense. The defenses allowed 17, 14 and 17 points in those games. Obviously Peyton and Eli were critical to the teams getting to that point, but it just seems odd that 2 top shelf QBs didn’t lead offensive explosions in the Super Bowl games their teams actually won.

Top 10 QBs taken since 1999

1999 – Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith
2000 – none
2001 – Michael Vick
2002 – David Carr, Joey Harrington
2003 – Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich
2004 – Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers
2005 – Alex Smith
2006 – Vince Young, Matt Leinart
2007 – JaMarcus Russell
2008 – Matt Ryan
2009 – Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez
2010 – Sam Bradford
2011 – Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert
2012 – Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill
2013 – none

Your chances are about 50-50 on getting a guy that you can truly call a good pick. And even some of those guys (Carson Palmer) aren’t going to lead your team to the promised land or ever develop into elite players.

The Eagles were lucky to get Donovan McNabb in 1999.

I think a major reason some QBs totally fail is that they are taken by teams devoid of talent. David Carr had a terrible O-line. Tim Couch lacked blocking and weapons. Others joined organizations with poor infrastructure and they didn’t have the personality to handle that. Russell was too immature for Oakland. Harrington was too nice for the Lions.

Obsessing on the Eagles getting a Top 10 pick to secure the stud QB of the future isn’t such a slam dunk idea.

You can find good QBs in other spots. Look at the SB winners above. A reader posted this nugget in the previous comments section. Here are the QBs for NFC playoff teams if the season ended today.

1) Seahawks – Russell Wilson (75th pick)
2) Saints – Drew Brees (32nd pick)
3) Packers – Aaron Rodgers (24th pick)
4) Cowboys – Tony Romo (Undrafted)
5) 49ers – Colin Kaepernick (36th pick)
6) Lions – Matthew Stafford (1st pick)

No one is advocating that you look for the next Tom Brady in the 6th round or that you count on finding the next Russell Wilson in the 3rd round. The point is that you don’t need a Top 10 pick to find the right guy.

Part of having the right guy is having the right situation for the guy to step into. Peyton Manning entered an offense that had Marvin Harrison, Marshall Faulk, LT Tarik Glenn, and TEs Ken Dilger and Marcus Pollard. That sure made life easy on Peyton. Joey Harrington had WR Az Hakim, WR Bill Schroeder, RB James Stewart and LT Jeff Backus. Which group would you rather have?

Aaron Rodgers became a good player in part because he was given time to develop and then took over a team that was talented. Russell Wilson was given a great running game and defense. There isn’t pressure on him to win games. Can you believe that Wilson has never thrown 40 passes in an NFL game? He’s only thrown 35 or more twice. Nick Foles had 3 games last year with more than 40 attempts and he only had 6 starts.

There really is a strong argument to be made for building the overall team and not selling out to get an early QB. You do want one in the 1st round if at all possible, but the guy doesn’t have to come early.

I think the Eagles have a pretty good infrastructure in place. Chip Kelly is a strong coach. There is some special talent in LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson. Zach Ertz is talented young TE. The OL has some good pieces on it. The defense is a work in progress, but there are some good young players on that side of the ball. Compare that to a QB joining the Jaguars. That player will have tremendous pressure on him. Check out that roster. That’s a bad team.

I’d love to have a QB in place for 2014 that we felt could be the answer, but I could live with the team giving Foles or Barkley a chance to play and focusing on building up the overall talent of the team. There is no one strategy that a team must follow. This isn’t a case of find a QB or else. The coach and GM must see who is available and then come up with a plan that works for that team. Heck, even if the Eagles draft a QB early, there is no guarantee he’ll be given the starting job right away.

* * * * *

The Giants won a very ugly game tonight. Will that get them back their mojo? I have my doubts. The Vikings looked awful. Josh Freeman made Nick Foles look solid.

The upside is that we didn’t want the Giants getting too high a pick. Nobody wants them getting Jadeveon Clowney.

* * * * *

Another note on QBs…there could be a lot of competition for them this year.Β Jay Cutler is a FA at the end of the year and isn’t a lock to return to the Bears. Sam Bradford is hurt and hasn’t been impressive. Matt Schaub could be done in Houston and the Texans might not stick with their current guys. Tampa might need one. The Vikings too. Heck, there are still more teams that could take a QB early.

Could make for a very interesting offseason.


151 Comments on “Building a Juggernaut Team”

  1. 1 Mitchell said at 1:14 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Off topic, but can we recognize Meco right now? 60 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 int (per ESPN stats). This guy is beastin’ (relative to our defense). Can Kendricks please pick up on this!?!?!

  2. 2 GEAGLE said at 5:02 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Meco is a monster,mbut he is a veteran so it’s only natural to see him make the transition faster than Mykal…it’s been rough for Myka, but he is playing better these past few weeks, and I still believe that by the first week in December, he will arrive as the Kendricks we all thought he could be…Meco will have a big year for us, and people are nuts for thinking we will have to replace him this offseason…we will get ATleast one more year out of him, especially since he will undoubtably have more help around him next year…
    Meco “Good Cop” Ryan, and Cary “bad cop” Williams will whip this young unit into a good defense, once we get them some more help this offseason….

  3. 3 Keith Mc. said at 1:15 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Heads up, Tommy. You mean Matt Schaub could be done in Houston. Matt Leinart most definitely is.

  4. 4 TommyLawlor said at 1:33 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I really need to quit sniffing glue while posting.

  5. 5 sonofdman said at 2:58 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    It looks like you picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

  6. 6 Jeppe Elmelund van Ee said at 1:35 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Hi Tommy,

    Great post! Could you make one with your preferred QBs and OLBs in the draft? That’s the two positions, that I’m cued in on for the 2014 draft.

  7. 7 TommyLawlor said at 1:55 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Yeah, I’ll be writing a lot about the draft in the coming weeks.

  8. 8 A Roy said at 10:43 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I was hoping you’d be writing about playoff chances, but I’m in the Dick Vermeil category after the Dallas game. Playoffs?

  9. 9 laeagle said at 11:33 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I think you mean Jim Mora. Also a Philly coach at one point (the Stars) but was with Indy for that famous tirade.

  10. 10 A Roy said at 1:10 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    You are correct. I was thinking Mora and wrote Vermiel. For a while, the Stars had a cheerleader named Adrienne. Needless to say, there were lots of “Yo, Adrienne” calls during the game.

  11. 11 Kristopher Cebula said at 8:51 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    don’t forget about safety

  12. 12 Jeppe Elmelund van Ee said at 11:23 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I actually like Wolff, and think Allen is coming along nicely. That’s not to say that I love our safeties, but I wouldn’t spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on one.

  13. 13 BlindChow said at 1:40 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Well, the Giants won, but at least we no longer have the worst QB performance of the week!

  14. 14 Mac said at 10:07 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    G-strings need to win a few so they don’t get the #1 pick.

  15. 15 GEAGLE said at 5:04 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Yeah I agree. Now that I safely know that they are pathetic, I don’t want to see them lose every week….It want them to miss out on Clowney and have to settle for OT or WR

  16. 16 Anders said at 10:35 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Tom Brady was actually worse than Foles according to Football outsiders.

  17. 17 jackpotsdad said at 1:49 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Interesting offseason indeed!

    First, I agree with the point you’ve many times that Vick’s time in Philly ends with this season. He’s on a one year contract and for some teams who are too good to get a top 5 QB but are hurting for a serviceable QB, Vick, even at age 34, is a definite upgrade.

    That somewhat simplifies the situation because it leaves Foles and Barkley. I think one of them, probably Barkley, gets traded. That leaves Foles and a rookie pickup.

    Until this week, I thought Chip would stay the course and wait until Foles and/or Barkley develops into his QB. I no longer think that, and I think he’ll push for a QB. We’ll be too good for a Bridgewater or Mariota (unless we part with a lot picks), so I think the names we’re looking at are Hundley, Manziel or maybe even Mettenberger. I know those aren’t names that excite people like Bridgewater or Mariota, but I think Chip will look for a diamond in the rough and let him sit while Foles becomes the transition QB.

  18. 18 Cafone said at 2:36 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    But without Vick, don’t the Eagles fall into that category of hurting for a serviceable QB?

    Maybe not, but we can’t be sure that Kelly is ready to start Foles or Barkley. If the Eagles do intend to pick a QB early, it’s possible that Kelly would like him to play behind Vick for a year if that gives the Eagles the best chance to win games. There’s no reason to think they would have to break the bank to retain Vick. And there’s plenty of reason to think Vick would rather stay in Philly if the money is relatively equal.

    After this past Sunday, I think the idea of Vick leaving next year as a foregone conclusion needs to be reevaluated. We’re not even halfway through the season… a lot could happen between now and the end.

  19. 19 ICDogg said at 2:40 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Yeah, I’m thinking that also. It may well be that keeping Vick around is the best of many not too exciting options.

    There may be no one in the draft that we would consider close to ready to go, Foles and Barkley might not be strong enough candidates, and there might not be a free agent option we like better than Vick.

  20. 20 anon said at 7:35 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    This is what i’ve been saying.

  21. 21 Kristopher Cebula said at 8:54 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    The issue with keeping Vick next year is that we’d probably have to give him a two or three year deal. If other teams are offering that, which they very well could, he probably won’t stay here on another one year deal.

  22. 22 sprawl said at 12:39 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    It’s hard to imagine teams giving him a 2-3 year deal at his age and with his durability issues. Through 7 weeks Vick has missed 2.5 games this season.

    It’s tolerable for the Eagles because we have some guys behind him that we want to see something from but I don’t know how it would work with other teams.

  23. 23 Maggie said at 2:44 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Two words. Kurt Warner.

  24. 24 Insomniac said at 1:50 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    What if the Giants keep sucking and took Mariota or Teddy B instead of Clowney? The horrors.

  25. 25 TommyLawlor said at 1:56 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    That would be interesting. Would Coughlin do that or would they also make a coaching change?

  26. 26 Insomniac said at 2:01 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m sure the Giant fans would be happy to get rid of Gilbride and Eli.

  27. 27 ICDogg said at 2:45 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Yeah, they’re pretty fickle.

  28. 28 anon said at 7:33 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    It’s Eli’s contract year as well.

  29. 29 Anders said at 10:35 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Most of them just wants to get rid of Gilbride. They want a WCO like Rivers got this year (Norv Turners and Gilbrides offense is the same, but McCoy is more WCO like AR, still vertical routes, but not just 4 verticals and slants all day)

  30. 30 Weapon Y said at 1:15 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I don’t think Coughlin would dump Eli, but stranger things have happened. My bet is if a new coaching regime steps in, they trade Eli and draft a QB. Its possible that Coughlin decides to retire after this year and makes the decision easy for the Giants. We’ll see just how much good will a coach gets from winning two Super Bowls.

  31. 31 Mac said at 10:06 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Wouldn’t surprise me at all.

  32. 32 shah8 said at 2:02 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    A couple of notes:

    Most busts from the top ten come in bad years. When there is a weak QB class, it’s best not to pick one. Although, with hindsight, I vastly prefer Geno Smith to Zach Ertz (and no, it’s quite unlikely for Foles or Barkley to start next year, we ain’t Arizona starting John Skelton a few too many times) because the flexibility at the QB position would have been valuable.

    An extension of the weak QB classes. Joey Harrington didn’t really have either the arm or the aptitude for the game. David Carr should never have been picked so high, in general.

    Super Bowl is about luck and skill of the team. It’s a better idea, I think, to look at all the QBs that have had one victory in the playoffs.

    What’s really more true is that drafting a bad QB tends to be something you want to avoid more than you want to draft a SuperBowl QB. Avoiding bad stuff leads to good stuff, and that tends to be true of all first round draft picks, regardless of position. Dontarie Poe is the key part of why the Chiefs are the only team without a loss in my imagination. They consistently hit on most of their first rounders, except for perhaps the 2013 one and Baldwin. And looking at 2013, it really does seem like all the early picking on linemen were probably a bad idea. KC really didn’t need to do it, and neither did Jax or Phi. This caused disruption for settled talent in KC and Jax, and Phi’s talent in defense was really too bare to pick another first round lineman. The fireman was a major cause of the failed Dream Team hopes, and looking back, it was obvious that it was just a really bad idea to pick that dude in the first round. Pardon the free association, very sleepy.

  33. 33 ICDogg said at 2:36 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Seems to me that one of the best QB years, at least as far as people thought at the time, had McNabb but also Couch, Akili Smith, and McNown who were all thought to be good choices. Culpepper seemed good for a time, certainly better than the others besides McNabb. But that year turned out to be less than advertised.

  34. 34 T_S_O_P said at 2:48 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson and the his draft class et al as well as the 2 mentioned by yourself. That seems like a poor strike rate to me, especially as 2 guys were top 5 picks.

  35. 35 Bob Brewer said at 6:37 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    “There really is a strong argument to be made for building the overall
    team and not selling out to get an early QB. You do want one in the 1st
    round if at all possible, but the guy doesn’t have to come early.”

    This I agree with. I’m OK with the acquiring the most talent possible and then maybe a QB can make it work. If the Eagles could draft Evans or Watkins at WR, that would be great.

  36. 36 dislikedisqus said at 6:46 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Very good post

  37. 37 The Linc – Michael Vick voted NFL’s most disliked player | Sports Feedr said at 7:20 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    […] Building a Juggernaut Team – Tommy Lawlor, Iggles BlitzThe whole point in obsessing on who will be the Eagles QB is that we want the team to have the right guy to help the team get back to being a Super Bowl contender. To be a Super Bowl team, you need a top shelf QB. But how/where do you find them? […]

  38. 38 anon said at 7:36 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

  39. 39 brza said at 8:02 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Hey Tommy, I kind of have to disagree with you on this point. I do agree that having a good situation for a QB is essential to success but the success rates are exponentially higher for finding a capable QB in the top 10 picks than anywhere else in the draft.

    You mentioned that a top 10 QB is about a 50/50 shot which got me thinking so I went back and looked at all the QBs drafted from 99-2012. There were 24 Top 10 picks overall and by my count 12 should be considered franchise QBs. And the numbers are even better if you only focus on Top 5 picks (12 of 18 for a 67% success rate). Its interesting to note that their was no franchise QB drafted between picks
    6-10, although some think Tannehill may prove his worth yet.

    However, there were 146 QBs drafted after Pick 10 in those drafts and by my count you can only consider 10 maybe 11 of them to have been franchise QBs. Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger (Pick 11), Rodgers, Cutler (Pick 11), Flacco and the guys I’d consider maybes Bulger, Dalton and Culpepper. Thats only a 6.8% success rate.

    If you only focus on 1st rounders outside of pick 10 then the number is better (5 of 15 for 33%) but considerably lower than the 50/50 chance in the top 10. Also two of those guys were picked 11th so taking them out of the equation you have a 25% success rate for finding a franchise QB in round 1 after pick 11.

    The success rate gets even worse after round 1. After round 1 the following QBs were drafted:

    Year – Number of QBs – Starters
    2012 – 7 – Wilson, Foles
    2011 – 8 – Dalton, Kaepernick
    2010 – 12 – 0
    2009 – 8 – 0
    2008 – 11 – Henne
    2007 – 8 – Kolb, Edwards
    2006 – 8 – 0
    2005 – 10 – Orton, Anderson, Cassel, Fitzpatrick
    2004 – 13 – Schaub
    2003 – 9 – 0
    2002 – 12 – McCown, Garrard
    2001 – 10 – Brees, Feeley
    2000 – 10 – Bulger, Brady
    1999 – 8 – Brooks

    Because the results were so bad I just included anybody that was at some point named their team’s starter for multiple games excluding starts due mainly to injury when they were just filling in for the incumbent. That left me with 19 starting caliber QBs out of 131. That means there is only a 13.7% chance of finding a starter outside of round 1. Only 4-6 franchise QBs (Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady, Brees, possibly Dalton, Bulger depending on how strict or lenient you want to rate them) were found outside of round 1 during that time. Thats a horrid success rate of 2.3 – 4.6%.

    So I agree that its important not to waste a top 10 pick if you have a bad situation on offense or if its just a reach. But the Eagles have enough talent to support a rookie QB and the talent appears to be there in the upcoming draft class. Based on those statistics and the Eagles situation the most logical choice would be to do everything in their power to draft a Top 10 QB, short of weakening their offensive core. Otherwise we’ll most likely be stuck in QB purgatory and as a result stuck in mediocrity for much longer.

  40. 40 Patrick said at 8:50 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    To go along with the opening line, yes, you need a good team to win the Super Bowl, but all the recent SB participants, not just the winners, had at the very least, an above average QB with the questionable guys of course being Eli, the year Jake Delhomme was actually good and Rex Grossman who pretty much was the sole, true anomaly.

    People like to go all the way back to the 2001 Ravens and that incredible defense, but the trend goes further. Before that year, the QBs of the winning team was what I could call the HoF lineup: Kurt Warner, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman and Steve Young. Before that, the Redskins won it with Joe Gibbs as a coach and that great OL and the Giants won it the year before with LT.
    Since the 1991 season the winning team had a real franchise QB in all years except 2001, and since 2001 only twice(Ravens and Bears) have one the participating teams lacked a true QB.

    If you need a QB to win the SB and your chance of hitting on a QB prospect increases the higher you draft them, the choice is pretty obvious to me. Also, to go along with Shah8s post below, all those bad QB picks seem to happen when a mixture of a bad QB class and a QB needy team forces a team to reach for a flawed prospect that they may not be sold on. How Locker, Gabbert and Ponder went that high is beyond me, and locking back I think a lot of people felt that way. Not that i would call Andy Dalton a surefire franchise QB just yet, but it has to be some kind of poetic justice that the teams who picked their guy in the second round where the value matched the QB, got Dalton and Kaepernick, while the teams that majorly overreached got 2 busts in Gabbert/Ponder and a guy in Locker who has shown about the same thing as Nick Foles who can hardly be considered a success, but relatively to their draft position, makes me feel pretty good about right about…now.

    The result seems to be that you need to draft your QB in the first round or just outside, preferably in the top 15, but even though you need a QB to win, reaching for a QB is just a bad as reaching for Danny Watkins or Jaiquawn Jarrett. It’s actually that simple: Don’t reach, Youngblood.

  41. 41 Kristopher Cebula said at 9:01 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    If Eli is on questionable list, shouldn’t Joe Flacco be on their too? although he has a good playoff record, I would argue that he has always been in a great situation as far as having a great team. He has looked pedestrian more than not in his time in the NFL, unless you consider the ability to throw the ball really far and hope someone catches it, superstar ability

  42. 42 Patrick said at 9:14 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Oh I’m sorry, reading that bit again I can see it poorly frased. What I meant was that Eli gets a lot of criticism, but in reality he is a very good QB, especially in those Giants SB season, not to mention that despite their DLs rep, Eli won those rings.
    While Flacco got criticism, everyone agreed that he was a good QB, but questioned whether he could win the Ravens a SB even with that defense, turned out he could do it himself.
    The same went for Jake Delhomme, who by no means should be considered a “good” QB, but in that season he actually did decent, hence my conclusion that the only, truly bad QB in a SB other than Dilfer in 2001 was Rex Grossman who was never actually that good, and he sure wasn’t in the Bears SB season. Grossman got there in large part due to all other areas of the team being very good: a truly GREAT defense, a ST with Devin Hester on fire and a running game that worked very well at times. Delhomme actually did something, and as mentioned Eli and Flacco really did something. Looking over it as again though, I might have overrated Delhommes performance in the 2003 season too. He was pretty bad, so maybe he should count as one of the 3 SB quarterbacks out of 26 that was actually bad. Still, 23 out of 26 Super Bowl QBs(around 90 percent by a quick calculation) were above average, the picture is pretty clear.

  43. 43 brza said at 9:25 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m not talking about reaching for a QB. I know that just because you drafted him in the Top 10 doesn’t make the QB good.

    I’m saying that over the last 13 years statistically the success rate of Top 10 QBs (or actually Top 11) is so much better than any point else to get a franchise QB. So, if there are QBs worthy of being taken in the Top 10 (as is the case this year) you need to do everything you can in order to get in position to take one of those QBs because you have less than a 7% chance of getting a franchise QB after that. Otherwise, without a franchise QB you have less than a 10% chance of ever winning a Superbowl.

  44. 44 FrenchEagles said at 9:43 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    You have statistically a high rate of picking a great player in the Top 10-11 than after QB or not. Of course, the best players are going to be taken with the first picks of the draft.
    By the way, the last 13 years are a very small sample size for deciding where to pick a QB and limiting it to the 11 first picks. It depends a lot on the teams that are going to pick in those places.
    I’d prefer to compare the QB by QB rankings, and think that you have to take one of the first 3 QB taken (for example) every year to have a chance, but still, there are years that are rich in QB (2011) and other that are poor (2007).

    The real question should be: do you prefer to spend a top pick and get a 10% chance of success on a QB instead of an OT with a 50% chance of success? Do you prefer to spend a 3rd round pick with 3% of success on QB instead of 5% on an OT? How much do you trust your scouts to increase these percentages?

  45. 45 brza said at 10:04 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Of course that works for all positions. I’m just focusing on QBs because of this article and the changes in the game that have increased the importance of having a great one even more than in the past.

    I’m not sure where you’re getting the percentages from. I pointed out that you have a 50% chance when picking in the Top 10 and 67% chance in the Top 5 of getting a franchise QB. I’d take those chances any day of the week, even if faced with a hypothetical 99% chance of hitting with Jadaveon Clowney or an OT.

    I know 14 years isn’t alot but I looked at all 146 QBs picked in those 14 years which should be a fairly decent size to make some conclusions. Also the fact that the game has dramatically shifted to be an even more QB-centric league over that time period, those were Big Red’s years and my lunch break was ending I figured it would be a good point to stop the analysis.

  46. 46 austinfan said at 8:53 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    The real cutoff is around pick #35-40 or so.

    After that it’s a crapshoot, Warner, Romo, Brady, Schaub, Bulger and Wilson are the only successes I can name. Most QBs drafted after the sweet spot are seen as candidates for backup QB.

    Like any position, the odds go up at the top of the draft, but the odds have slimmed down at the top because you can’t just scout physical ability anymore, and guys with average skills can outperform studs if they have the mental acuity to master the more complex schemes and defenses in today’s NFL – and that quality is harder to scout. Dalton is a good example, he’s outperformed almost every QB drafted higher the last three years.

  47. 47 Anders said at 10:32 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I agree. Too much focus is on the few who succed outside of the first, I just do not want to mortage the future by going all in a QB like the Skins.

    I know our overall talent and salary cap is much better, but we are getting old at some key positions and I do not want to see another 2012 like OL (both guards and 1 tackle is getting older).

  48. 48 ACViking said at 1:00 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    BRZA . . .

    This is great work.

    You’re playing “money ball” against the gut-instinct of football loving fans.

  49. 49 brza said at 1:29 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Haha, thanks. I’m glad someone appreciates it.

  50. 50 austinfan said at 8:47 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Some additional points:

    1) the game has changed, in the past, arm strength mattered more because defenses were simpler, but so were offenses, the standard offense was the I formation with 2 WRs and a TE, so the mental demands were less and a key element of the passing game was the play action throw downfield. Now you see complex defenses against complex offenses, the mental demands are far greater, and the short passing game dominates, 90% of all throws are within 20 yards of the LOS.

    2) experience matters more. Look at the lists of the top 10 QBs (FO, QBR, QB rating) and most of them have 4 or more years of experience. As the game gets more complex, it takes longer for QBs to master it. So even if you draft a “hot shot”, unless it’s someone like Luck out of a pro style offense (and most colleges run spread offenses these days), it’ll take a while for that top pick to develop into a top QB, if ever.

    3) the supply of passing QBs has increased. Places like Texas pass in HS, have 7 on 7 summer leagues, colleges pass far more – by the time a kid gets to the NFL he may have 2X or 3x the passing reps that a young QB would have had 20 years ago. So it’s easier to find adequate throwers, which makes the mental aspect even more important as the intangible that separates the guys who throw from the QBs, much like baseball, where many throw 90+ but few have the discipline to command their stuff.

    4) college coaches ruin mobile QBs because they want to win now. These guys look great in the college game against inferior athletes, but are often in “one read and run” spread offenses where they don’t learn how to sit in a pocket and read a defense, and develop bad habits. So don’t get too impressed by the numbers they throw up. Russell Wilson succeeded because he went to Wisconsin and learned how to play QB.

    The most important point is DO NOT REACH FOR A QB IN THE DRAFT. A high pick at QB who ends up on the bench won’t help your team as much as a solid starter at another position. Fans underrate the value of a good defense for a QB, but if you know your defense will get the ball back, and you don’t have to score 30 points, you can play more conservatively, not take chances, and avoid interceptions. And a good OL is key for the success of most QBs, with today’s offensive schemes someone will get open if you give your QB 3+ seconds to throw. So build a good team, and eventually you’ll develop a good QB.

  51. 51 DelsinRowe said at 9:40 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’d go with Cutler all day long. Hopefully he does shake free from Chicago.

  52. 52 Donald Kalinowski said at 10:41 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Was Jay Cutler ever that good? He had one good season and the rest of his career was pretty mediocre.

  53. 53 Anders said at 10:48 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    He is Brett Favre incarnated. Typical gunslinger. Sadly he is injured now and that Bears defense has regressed to worse than Eagles level

  54. 54 DelsinRowe said at 10:54 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I like his potential. I think he’s exactly what this offense needs with Shady and DeSean.

  55. 55 Anders said at 10:58 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    He got the size, arm and mobility that would make him a perfect fit.

  56. 56 Cafone said at 11:48 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    And Philly fans would just love his attitude:,33484/

  57. 57 Iskar36 said at 10:59 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m tired of hearing about 30+ year old QBs and their “potential”.

  58. 58 DelsinRowe said at 11:06 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m tired of losing games but hey, you can only control what you can control.

  59. 59 Donald Kalinowski said at 11:24 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    “you kind of suck but my dad says you might be good one day”

  60. 60 DelsinRowe said at 12:44 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Not sure what you mean. My father has been dead for almost 15 years.

  61. 61 Maggie said at 2:51 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Have you looked at Cutler’s SALARY?

  62. 62 Mac said at 10:08 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m sticking with my prediction that this team will be 6-6 going into the Detroit game. Don’t bury these birds yet.

  63. 63 GermanEagle said at 11:16 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Is anyone going to the Lions game? I will be in NY and drive over to the Linc that day. πŸ™‚

  64. 64 Mac said at 1:37 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    That’s cool, and quite the trip!

  65. 65 GermanEagle said at 3:45 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Will you be there too?

  66. 66 Mac said at 11:47 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I will be only a few days out from a new baby girl at that point. So, I’ll be watching from home!

  67. 67 GermanEagle said at 8:44 AM on October 23rd, 2013:

    Bless you! My baby girls have been keeping me busy since they were born 6 weeks ago. πŸ™‚

  68. 68 Mac said at 9:53 AM on October 23rd, 2013:

    I can imagine! I remember seeing the picture you posted on here. You are very blessed as well πŸ™‚

  69. 69 GermanEagle said at 10:38 AM on October 23rd, 2013:

    Thanks bud. I know. πŸ˜‰

  70. 70 SteveH said at 3:48 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    awesome man, sounds like a sweet vacation :).

  71. 71 GermanEagle said at 8:45 AM on October 23rd, 2013:

    Not really a vacation, it’s more like things to come. Will be moving to NYC for 2 years. πŸ™‚

  72. 72 GEAGLE said at 5:09 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I will be at every home game starting the first week of November….this idea sounded better last spring lol

  73. 73 Telmert said at 10:12 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m in the minority on Barkley – I was actually encouraged by his performance. I thought he made quick decisions and got the ball out. There were some nice throws. He also seems to be in better command in getting the team lined up and speeding up the offense than our other QBs. The interceptions were rookie mistakes that can be corrected with coaching.

    I also thought the deck was stacked against him with Kiffin. Better than any other DC, Kiffin knows exactly where Barkley’s blind spots are – the coverages he tends to misread, routes he tends to favor, etc. from years of coaching against him in practice. It was a tough spot anyway – down two scores and having to throw on every down after being inactive most of the season. Doing it against a guy with inside info made it that much worse.

    Matt’s obviously still a ways off from being ready, but Aaron Rogers threw 59 passes (total) over his first three seasons. I like old school – be patient, let guys develop, then bring them in when they’re ready to be successful. I wonder how many QBs today are ruined because they were thrown into the fire too early.

  74. 74 jshort said at 10:18 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Naw, he sucks too, getting thrown in that situation cold, in his first NFL action, should have led the team to victory. Trade them all to Minnesota for there QB’s

  75. 75 A_T_G said at 11:44 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Would that include Joe Webb?

  76. 76 Anders said at 10:33 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I really love how Barkley showed he understands this offense and his arm strength was better than I have ever seen it.

  77. 77 jshort said at 10:43 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Barkley would have been a top ten if he came out the year before. Just getting tired of reading the negativity on the young guys

  78. 78 Donald Kalinowski said at 10:46 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I also liked what I saw from him. If the team wasn’t down by 14 points so late in the game, I guess Barkley would have been more careful with the ball. That’s what I like to think. However it looked like he was baited into some of those turnovers. What I like from him- mobility, pocket awareness, arm strength, mobility, and quick release

  79. 79 RobNE said at 12:24 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    If Vick isn’t ready, I wouldn’t mind if Foles were out a week and give Barkley a week of practice and a start.

  80. 80 GEAGLE said at 5:21 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    No…I hate these spot appearences…either give a young quarterback some damn continuity or don’t play him at all. jerking young QBs in and out of a lineup is pointless. Either invest some real game time in a kid, with continuity getting the first team reps for ATleast a 5 week span, or keep the youngster on the bench…

  81. 81 OregonDucker said at 2:51 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I completely agree with your comments. Chip loves Barkley and should give him another chance in this game. Barkley needs to learn from his mistakes.

  82. 82 jshort said at 10:12 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Ok, what i’m getting out of these posts is all our QB’s suck. One question that I’m not sure of the answer is, How bad does a groin injury affect your throwing? Not even sure how bad Foles groin was, just wondering. That was the worst i’ve ever seen him play. Most everyone has an opinion on which of our flawed QB’s should start, I’m just concerned about groin and throwing .

  83. 83 Anders said at 10:39 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    anything leg related screws up the throwing because majority of it is based on foot work. For a guy there have to have perfect foot work on almost every throw, a groin injury could be pretty bad.

    Guys like Vick, Stafford or Cutler who got cannon’s for arms can overcome bad footwork because their arm makes up for it, but they would still be affected to some degree.

  84. 84 Anders said at 10:36 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    “Sheil Kapadia ‏@SheilKapadia5m
    Watching All-22 now. An avg. QB performance Sunday would have yielded 300 yds. through the air. Guys running open all game long.”

    Seems it was all Foles and not the play call and scheme

  85. 85 GermanEagle said at 11:15 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    That’ what I said all along, without watching All-22.

  86. 86 GermanEagle said at 11:38 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Whoever arrows down my recent posts seems to lack of some intelligence.

  87. 87 GermanEagle said at 11:55 AM on October 22nd, 2013:


  88. 88 A_T_G said at 11:49 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    If the play calling involved putting a guy Chip knew was hurt out there hoping that his injured best would be better than the next guy’s healthy best, you can still question the leadership.

    Nick was missing throws all over the field. But he knew it, and so did the receivers, so did the coaches. You could see it in all of their body language. Nobody is going to be surprised that shows up on the all-22. But that still doesn’t give us any insight into why.

  89. 89 Anders said at 11:53 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Foles wasnt on the injury report for this week, so Im not buying that.

    Foles was on the injury report against the Bucs and had no problems throwing the ball.

  90. 90 GermanEagle said at 12:06 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Again, I agree with my European counterpart. πŸ˜‰ The groin thing is a lame excuse for people trying to find ANY reason why Foles sucked up the joint that day.

  91. 91 Neil said at 12:30 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Nobody’s looking for an excuse. We’re looking for a reason a guy who had good accuracy for seven or eight games over the course of a full year comes out one day and misses EVERYTHING. It’s hard to believe something wasn’t wrong.

  92. 92 BlindChow said at 1:32 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    People who hated Foles before the game aren’t going to think anything except that this was the “real” Foles on the field, despite the fact he’d never been this inaccurate or jumpy before. This was a “confirmation bias” game for them (much like KC was for people who hate Vick).

  93. 93 Donald Kalinowski said at 11:19 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    When it comes to QBs I’d rather wait to get that “franchise” guy before drafting one just for the sake of filling a team need.

    I wonder what Kelly’s philosophy is on QBs. Does he need that elite guy or does he think he can develop someone with skills to be that guy?

  94. 94 Cafone said at 12:25 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Wait until when? The common thought is that this year’s QB class is deep so if you are looking for a QB, this is the year to get one. And while most of us are still thrilled with the decision to hire Kelly, that’s not going to last forever, especially in Philadelphia.

  95. 95 Donald Kalinowski said at 12:31 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Wait until the opportunity arises. I’d rather draft a Luis Nix than settle for the next Josh Freeman.

  96. 96 BlindChow said at 1:28 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Or Sanchez, Ponder, Gabbert, Locker… You can take a guy in the 1st, but that won’t make him great.

  97. 97 BlindChow said at 11:21 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

  98. 98 Mike Flick said at 11:56 AM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Enough talk about QBs.

    How the Hell did our O-line not dominate? We should have gotten at least 6yds a carry. They got a line full of scrubs, crap scrubs that are all castoffs.

    Foles sucked, we all know that. But how did they keep Shady from getting 200 yds? We could have lined up 3 TE sets and plowed it right down their throats.

    How did Brown not go off? Seriously this was a game where those guys should have stepped up, especially when Foles was doing his Bobby Hoying impression.

    I was starting to think we had something, but now I don’t know. That was my biggest disappointments of all units since the Special teams sucking against Denver. We dropped a lot of good young prospects to get special teams guys, and they blew it. We spent our 4th pick on the draft for a RT, we spent a 1st on Peters, those guys need to be our money players.

    Yeah, we can survive with average QB play, great. Only if we dominate in SOMETHING. Looking at this team, you would have thought the one place we got is a running game. That is it. Dominate running team, good specials, and hope the rest of the team can be average enough to keep us above water.

    I am pissed at the big uglies.

  99. 99 Cafone said at 12:17 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’ll let Tommy do the analysis in his DGR, but maybe because the Eagles’ lack of a passing attack enabled the Giants to load the box?

  100. 100 Neil said at 12:26 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Nah, we were unsuccessful running against favourable numbers too. Just a bad game all around.

  101. 101 Mike Flick said at 2:53 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    It was one area looking at it where we had the edge.

    Our O-line vs their D-line. You gotta win those, that may be the worst d-line we play all year.

  102. 102 Joe Minx said at 1:31 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Dropped a lot of good young prospects to get special teams guys? What are you talking about? What good young prospects?

  103. 103 Mike Flick said at 2:49 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    LBs McCoy, Acho, WR Salas, the other 6’8 WR who needed time. All cut because of guys with better ST ability.

    Plus it was a much bigger focus than previous years, but it is not a better unit. Giving practice time to ST is taking from other parts. I was sold on doing that, but the results should show for a better unit.

  104. 104 Joe Minx said at 5:48 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    McCoy is 27 or 28. Wouldn’t really call him young, plus nobody’s picked the guy up since Jacksonville of all teams dumped him. That should tell you something. I liked Acho but he’s back now. Salas is now on his 4th team; again, that’s not something you should dismiss. Momah showed literally nothing. That whole thing was very strange. I’m sure they were especially disappointed with how that turned out given that they gave him an extra big signing bonus. But again, no one has picked him up & I haven’t even heard of him working out for any teams so that’s obviously telling.

    I understand your point about being let down by the results of the STs emphasis that haven’t exactly borne the fruit that was expected. But it’s not as if we really lost anything in doing it.

  105. 105 A_T_G said at 3:32 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Shady said there were holes and he just didn’t see them. He said it was his worst game as an Eagle. I imagine he felt a need to hit home runs, seeing how the team was playing.

  106. 106 Vick or Nick said at 12:17 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I hope Barkley gets his shot to start this week. Just so we can see what he can do. Eagles are in a really bad gray area. Not quite ready to challenge but not bad enough to totally look at the future.

    UPDATE: Vick is taking 1st team reps.

    So I guess that won’t be happening.

    I also like Jameis Winston from FSU. Imagine him in Chip’s offense. But that possibility is 2 years away.

  107. 107 Cafone said at 12:20 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Bite your tongue… I’ve got Vick in Fantasy and his backup has a Week 8 bye :p

  108. 108 BlindChow said at 1:25 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Barkley might get a chance to play even with Vick starting. We’ll see how his hamstring holds up.

  109. 109 Mac said at 3:09 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I will be shocked if playing this game isn’t a major setback for Vick.

  110. 110 Stormbringer said at 3:31 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Winston will go 1st when he comes out. Unless something tragic happens, there is no way we draft that high and the price for him would be outrageous as he would be considered an Elway type prospect (cannon arm, accuracy, size and highly mobile).

  111. 111 Anders said at 4:23 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Unless we go 0-16 next year AND he decides to come out, there is no chance we get him.

  112. 112 ACViking said at 12:43 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Re: Crapshoot Draft Odds Favor Taking a QB in Rd 1

    True, a handful of teams are winning with non-1st Rd picks.

    But I’d wager that the ODDS of finding a franchise QB go down with each round in which the QB’s selected — and go down fast.

    In other words, you have a better chance of hitting on a franchise QB in Rd 1 than in Rd 2, and even more so than Rd 3, and so on.

    Throwing the names of 6 players from six different years on the wall is not a particularly compelling sample size for the argument that, with patience, a franchise QB will fall out of the sky into your lap.


    Among the hundreds of QBs drafted in the 53 years since the AFL came into existence in 1960, only 13 QBs have been elected to the HOF.

    Those 13 HOF QBs account for 33 SB appearances. Only 2 of the 13 never made it to the SB.

    Of those 13 QBs, 8 were 1st Rd picks — and Roger Staubach likely would have been but for his military obligation after college.

    And 5 of the 8 QBs taken in Rd 1 were chosen 1st overall in the draft:

    Troy Aikman – 1st overall pick (3 SB wins)

    Terry Bradshaw – 1st overall pick (4 SB wins)

    John Elway – 1st overall pick (2 wins, 3 losses in SB)

    Dan Fouts – 3rd Rd (no SBs)

    Bob Griese – 1st Rd, 4th overall (went 2-1 in SB)

    Jim Kelly – 1st Rd, 14th overall (0-4 in SB)

    Dan Marino – 1st Rd, 27th overall (0-1 in SB)

    Joe Montana – 3rd Rd (4 SB wins)

    Warren Moon – FA (no SBs)

    Joe Namath – 1st overall 1965 AFL draft (1 SB win)

    Roger Staubach – 10th Rd because of Naval Commitment (2-2 SB)

    Fran Tarkenton – 3rd Rd (0-3 SB record)

    Steve Young – 1st overall 1984 Suppl Draft (1-0 SB)


    Who’s headed to the Hall of Fame among active QBs? Two for sure . . . Peyton Manning – 1st overall pick, and Tom Brady – 6th Rd.

    All in all . . . I’ll put my money on a 1st Rd QB to lift a team to longterm success and to get his team to SB before waiting for God to smile on my franchise and give me another Tom Brady in Rds 2-6.

  113. 113 Donald Kalinowski said at 1:42 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    But if you can find a guy in the later rounds who has the physical tools and mentality to develop into a franchise QB, it maybe more advantageous to work on that guy than to take a flyer on a guy you’re not confident with in the first round. Would you rather take a Johnny Manziel in the first round or would you rather draft an OLB or a NT who you’re confident can be a staple to your team’s defense?

  114. 114 Iskar36 said at 2:01 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I think ACVikings comments assume there is a guy you believe is worthy of a top pick. Picking a guy you don’t believe in, regardless of what round it is in is a recipe for disaster. You have to want the guy. That being said, IF there is a QB you want, the success rate of QBs taken earlier is WAY higher at the top of the draft than it is later in the draft.

  115. 115 ACViking said at 2:25 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Iskar36 . . .

    Thanks for adding that point. Yes, I advocate spending on a QB if the Eagles LOVE him.

    The Giants gave the Chargers an extra 1st, a 2nd, and a 5th (plus the swap) to move up 4 places because Ernie Accorsi absolutely loved Manning.

    In hindsight, Accorsi’s deal looks like a bargain.

    The Washington team paid dearly for Griffin, with 2 extra 1st Rd picks (plus swapping 1sts w/ the Rams).

    If Griffin’s not hurt coming into this season, Washington isn’t 2-4.

    As it is, that team is starting to play better. Because Griffin’s playing better.

    If the Washington team wins 9 games, that’s a pretty damn good year.

    Then the 1st round pick they gave up is in the high teens or low 20s — utter crapshoot area.

    Could Washington use that pick? No doubt.

    But what good would it be without Griffin QB’ing? None of the kids coming out this year is as good as he is.

    I like what Washington did.

    I only hope the Eagles are in position to move up and get a guy whom Kelly LOVES.

    If not — it’ll be Jonathan Pigskin in Rd 2. Book it.

  116. 116 OregonDucker said at 2:43 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    AC – “I only hope the Eagles are in position to move up and get a guy whom Kelly LOVES.”

    He already has – Barkley. We are writing this kid off too soon. Chip absolutely loves Barkley. I hope Matt starts against the Giants with Vick as backup. (I worry that Vick’s high hamstring strain could become severe if he re-injures it.)

  117. 117 ACViking said at 2:50 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    OD . . .

    I did disregard — though not discard — Barkley.

    Kelly and Roseman had him in their “Top 50.” Where ever he was in that group, we know Barkley was behind Bennie Logan, however.

    Is Barkley the “GUY,” though? Not a running threat. And, at least right now, Kelly’s offense seems to thrive with a running threat at QB.

    I’d sure like to see Barkley get meaningful snaps this season. Doesn’t seem as though it will happen.

    In the meantime, on the meager evidence to date, unless the Eagles’ power running game can produce as well as when Vick, and the threat as a runner, is in the line up . . . I believe if Kelly has a shot a top-rated QB who can throw and run (and whom Kelly loves), then I think the Eagles should pull the trigger and pay the price to get him.

  118. 118 OregonDucker said at 2:58 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I agree with your comments but I think the Vick experience is sobering for Chip. That is, if your QB runs a lot then he is going to get hurt. I suspect Chip will be modifying his scheme to substitute passing instead of running for the QB in most situations. Now, this does not rule out, rolling pockets and other schemes to move the QB away from pressure and stunts. Barkley can do this btw.

  119. 119 ACViking said at 3:19 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    OD . . .

    You may be right.

    But a couple of add-ons.

    First, Vick’s history is he’ll get injured. Some how, some way, he’ll get hurt. Period. If Kelly didn’t get that coming in and re-hiring Vick, shame on him.

    Second, Vick’s injury was on a scramble. In historically typical Vick fashion, a seemingly innocent play results in an injury.

    But QBs throughout the NFL scramble every week and don’t pull a hamstring.

    So I’m not sure Kelly should alter his scheme to account for a possible injury on a busted passing play.

    Last item. If Kelly’s to alter his scheme — and I expect he’ll always tinker — then his first objective has to be to make his power-running plays more productive.

    If — without Vick in the line up — the Eagles can’t run the ball, then I’m not sure what to make of this offense. (Giants and Dallas shut down the running game without Vick in there. Tampa played tough but ultimately not good enough.)

  120. 120 Stormbringer said at 3:29 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I think Chippah’s system can have maximum success with someone who does not run much but can threaten the run. If we were to get Mariota or JPM, they could be a pocket passer as long as they ran a few times a game and the D had to account for them running.

    Vick can do this now (though lately he seems to be running a bit much). Foles is too slow to really force the D to account for his running ability. You do not want them running too much (however successful) as you do not want your QB taking a kill shot.

  121. 121 ACViking said at 5:57 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Storm . . .

    You’ve used the phrase I will hereby adopt:

    “QB who can THREATEN the run . . . .”


  122. 122 Iskar36 said at 3:53 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I think your last point is an important one that isn’t being talked about enough right now. There’s no question to me that Vick, with his running capabilities, makes our run game as a whole more effective. With that being said, with the Oline we have and with LeSean McCoy, we should still be able to have a highly effective rushing attack even with a slow QB such as Foles. I can understand putting some blame on Foles for the ineffectiveness of the rushing attack against the Giants in the second half and against Dallas, but I do think putting all the blame on him dismisses the mistakes being made elsewhere.

  123. 123 BlindChow said at 5:05 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I think Dallas’ defense would have loosened up for McCoy if Foles was able to get the ball to any of his wide open receivers. Since he couldn’t, there was no need for the LB’s and safeties to have any concern about charging after McCoy every time there looked to be a handoff.

  124. 124 Iskar36 said at 3:11 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I don’t know that people have fully written Barkley off. He is a fourth round pick. The reality is, the odds are stacked against him to be a successful QB, and on top of that, you can’t plan your future around a guy that is a 4th round pick who has yet to do anything (not saying he is bad or good, simply stating the fact that he has not played all that much beyond the very odd set of circumstances he played in Dallas with). Assuming we don’t see a ton more from him the rest of the season, he is a guy that will be given a chance to compete next year and potentially beyond, but isn’t a guy you significantly alter your plans at QB around.

  125. 125 Stormbringer said at 3:21 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m more open to Manziel than I think most are here. Anyone who can shred Alabama like that (when the Alabama D only gave up 16 points the rest of the year) has to have some talent (plus he did it twice as he shredded them the year before).

    But I do think the concerns about his size are valid more than most as he will run with the ball and he is slender. He’s listed as 6’1″, 200 but does not look that heavy to me. Plus, since he gets a lot of press, it would not surprise me if someone like Suh decided to take extra liberties bashing him if he were to get hot.

  126. 126 RobNE said at 4:32 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    ACV: Let’s not take a sample of one game, one in which our QB couldn’t hit a barn door, and conclude that Kelly has to have a running QB in his offense or the running game will be shut down. If Foles hits on some of those passes, the running game could open up. I am not saying Kelly doesn’t prefer a mobile QB, just suggesting that this one game with Foles so wickedly inaccurate is not a good barometer.

  127. 127 ACViking said at 5:02 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Fair enough.

    I’m not trying to draw an final conclusions. I didn’t mean to seem as if I was, in any event.

    But I am struck by what happened in the Giants game after Vick’s injury, how hard the running yards came against Tampa, and Dallas’s domination up front.

    It’s inevitable — without a running QB, whose scrambles inflate the running yards anyway — that defenses will slowly clamp down on the Eagles’ ground game.

    It would be fantasy to believe the Eagles could go 16 games averaging 6.1 YPC without a running QB.

    But all of that aside, (a) I like Foles — and get frustrated that his 8 career starts are thought, by some, to be enough to write a final judgment, (b) I think the Eagles can run the ball against anyone if the QB is playing just decently, and (c) the Eagles could SMOKE people on the ground with a running QB.

  128. 128 RobNE said at 5:30 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I agree. Also who knows maybe the lack of talent at WR (except for Jackson) is also a big contributing factor to the running game – though not excusing Foles for last week. I just think of the reasons for the bad running game, QB mobility is lower on my list. Chip has often said it’s down on his list….so I am thinking it’s another part of the offense that is contributing more heavily to the failure of the running game. Maybe it’s wishful thinking that I want Foles or Barkley to succeed here.

  129. 129 ICDogg said at 1:49 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Look, if we’re in a position like the Skins to make a big trade-up for a franchise QB we believe in, even at huge cost, I could go along with that. But what I think I am trying to say is that I don’t expect any such situation to be available. I expect there will be some QBs that we could possibly get who are not of the superior quality we are hoping for, not even close.

    If that’s the position we’re in, I hope we don’t roll the dice on such a QB, but improve the team wherever we can.

  130. 130 eagleyankfan said at 1:14 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    we should be able to beat the Giants with a blind QB. The Giants didn’t exactly light it up last night vs. a terrible defensive team. Should be a spanking — no matter who is at QB.
    Foles was the worst qb play I’ve seen in a long time — until last night. Puke.

  131. 131 bdbd20 said at 2:23 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I’m really glad the Giants won last night. It would really suck to have that hanging over our heads all day Sunday.

  132. 132 A_T_G said at 3:24 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I don’t know that the Giants won so much as lost less than the Vikings.

  133. 133 Finlay Jones said at 2:25 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    You think there is no shot at Vick staying? I can see it, especially if we draft a qb in the first round.

  134. 134 ACViking said at 2:41 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Re: QB Roulette

    On pure TV talent (as opposed to All-22), Marcus Mariota looks great . . . to me, at least. He’s so good moving around and throwing outside the pocket. And in a foot race, I think he’d beat LeSean McCoy.

    But I don’t see MM being available at any price to the Eagles.

    However . . . Jonathan Pigskin Manziel, I believe, will be available to the Birds.

    For the same reasons Russell Wilson went in Rd 3: size and, at the time, accuracy concerned some folks.

    Wilson is a stout short guy. JPM is kind of a smallish-built short guy.

    Regardless, when I watch JPM, visions of HOFer Fran Tarkenton dance in my head. Tarkenton was short. Not particularly stout. Had an arm like Nick Foles.

    But Tarkenton had moxie (like Joe Erie in “The Sting”), a relentless competitor, some pretty good leadership qualities, and he could scramble forever ’til finding a receiver. Tarkenton was a winner. (Look at the Giants record after sending him to the Vikings; and look at the Vikings record after getting him.)

    JPM has shown some judgment issues. But his teammates love the guy.

    Post-season time will tell, when he’s vivisected by Kelly and the Eagles scouts — to see (i) if he’s a good interview, and (ii) if he can throw the ball far enough to make Kelly happy, not just satisfied, but happy.

    Assuming he passes those tests, if he’s around for the Eagles, I think he’s in Kelly green next year. With Kelly, as a great boxing trainer once said, JPM would be “a very dangerous person.”

  135. 135 ICDogg said at 3:01 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    You know, I’m intrigued by Manziel as well, but aren’t these a lot of the same characteristics often attributed to Tebow?

  136. 136 ACViking said at 3:11 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    that’s a good question.

    I think that A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin’s offense is much more reliant than the one Tebow was in.

    Also, JPM creates so many passing opportunities for himself. Tebow seemed like a QB who ran to gain yards. And he doesn’t have nearly the quickness of JPM in behind the line.

    All that said, JPM’s arm may not be NFL quality. But he’s so damned creative.

    That kid hung 80+ points in 2 games against Nick Saban’s Alabama juggernaut. No other QB comes close to that kind of production against Saban.

    What’s I’d really like to know is what Saban thinks of JPM behind closed doors.

  137. 137 Stormbringer said at 3:13 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Saban is on the record that he’s about the toughest QB he’s coached against and that he considers him most like Doug Flutie 2.0. Flutie was serviceable but not an outstanding pro.

  138. 138 ACViking said at 3:20 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Good comparison: Flutie and JPM

  139. 139 Stormbringer said at 3:11 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Manziel can sling it unlike Tebow (who throws like it is a shot put). He has a fairly strong arm (better than average) but not a cannon. Other than the disciplinary type issues, Manziel’s downsides are a. he isn’t just short, he’s short and slender so he might not take the pounding and b. his style is sort of like Romo where he’ll take big risks to make a play like throwing the ball up for grabs. He’s gotten away with those risky plays most of the time but in the pros that works a lot less frequently.

    Tebow is slower, larger and beefy like a tight end. His main problem is he can’t really throw.

  140. 140 BlindChow said at 4:48 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    His big plays seem to happen when he throws the ball up into coverage to essentially one guy: 6’6 WR Mike Evans. I’d want to be really sure it wasn’t a wide receiver making his QB look good rather than vice versa…

  141. 141 Adam said at 3:46 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Hey Tommy quick question, just wondering how relevant the historical data is going back that many years considering how well prepared QB’s have been coming out of college the last few years have been? Or do you feel it’s more of because of coaches building their offenses around their QB’s and/or QB’s running pro style offense in college?

  142. 142 GEAGLE said at 4:56 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    I talk about this all the time,,,I would much rather bow out of this years QB feeding frenzy at the draft. Let teams fight over the QBs and OTs, and have a damn good shot at getting a probowler at a position of need falling to us…

    Yesterday I wrote about this team not being good enough and that no matter what young QB we draft, we will still have to deal with the growing pains, be patient and let him play and grow thru mistakes…This isn’t even close to a Chip Kelly team…it’s still about 70% Andy..use this next offseason to build this team up, let FOles, Bakley. Heck I’d rather have Vick again next year, then to draft a QB….

    Look at it this way. If we draft a top QB, the team around him won’t be good enough for us to carry him and be much better then we are right now during his rookie season…but if you give FOles or even Vick, another year of continuity in this system and an improved roster We could see some better ball then we are seeing today…and then in 2015, you draft your 1st round pick and let him play with a stacked team that can carry him during the growing pains…

  143. 143 ACViking said at 5:48 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    GEagle . . .

    What I read you saying is that in 2015, the Eagles’ (a) defense will have a great D-line, at least 2 really good LBs, and at least 3 very good to great DBs, and (b) the offense will have a great O-line, 2 very good WRs, a good RZ slot receiver, and a great TE.

    Then, all we need’s a QB with one of our draft picks . . . and by serendipity, the Eagles will find in [pick your round] a franchise QB ready to step in and run this team’s offense.

    How are we getting all these great players?

    It took the 49ers Eight (8) years of losing records and some great drafting to put together the team Harbaugh inherited.

    The Seahawks required Four (4) years of losing records, excellent drafting, a great find from Canada, and committing felony theft against the Eagles to put the team together that Russell Wilson now runs.

    And where’s the franchise QB coming from?

  144. 144 ICDogg said at 7:18 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    It all comes down to who the franchise QB is and whether we can get him, and to me the most likely situation is that we may not be able to get someone who fits that description this year. Then what do we do?

    I think you have to see if you trust Foles, Barkley, or some available free agent, or retain Vick, and maybe you try another QB prospect from free agency or the draft that you think has a chance of being something, but mostly you have to work on the parts of the team that you can because the franchise QB you wish for just isn’t there.

  145. 145 Joe C said at 5:14 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    While I agree that top ten QBs don’t always pan out (about 50% according to the article), the percentage drops off significantly after those picks.
    According to my calculation and evaluations from 2000-2012 the percentages of picking a good QB after the top 10 picks are:

    picks 11-32: 27-33%- 4 or 5 of 15 (Pennington?, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Cutler, Flacco)
    RD 2: 21% 3 of 14 (Brees, Dalton, Kaepernick)
    RD 3: 11% 2 of 18 (Schaub, R. Wilson)

    As you can tell, I was fairly liberal is my evaluations of a “good QB” and the drop off is still huge.

    There’s no doubt drafting a good QB is like playing the lottery. The question is, would you rather play a lottery in which your odds of winning are 50/50 or
    11%-33% ?

  146. 146 Neil said at 12:12 PM on October 23rd, 2013:

    Couldn’t I also try for JJ Watt with that 50/50 ticket? Etc. The draft is about picking the player who’s going to make the biggest difference for your team. You can’t talk like the act of selecting the QB early makes the odds of panning out go up. It’s all about the individual. If the right value in a QB is available wherever the eagles are, the eagles will take him.

  147. 147 GEAGLE said at 5:16 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    Shady has always been awesome…but I gained so much respect for his comments last night…he tried to shoulder a lot of the blame for the loss. called it his worst performance since his rookie season. called himself “selfish” on the screen play….he took more responsibility in one interview then Donovan did in a decade…love seeing one of our leaders in the locker room, man up and hold himself so accountable…
    Btw, did you hear the crazy stat? Out of all 4 major sports, since the Linc was built, we are THE ONLY Franchise out of a hundred and twenty something, to have a better record on the road then at home…basically the corporate hell hole gives us the least home advantage out of any teams in all 4 major sports…..HASHTAG pathetic,,,,

  148. 148 Anders said at 5:23 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    “he took more responsibility in one interview then Donovan did in a decade.”

    wtf are you smoking?

  149. 149 ACViking said at 5:49 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    For the record . . . whatever it is, it’s not what — uh, um — helped me with my Foles-turning-into-Staubach comment yesterday.

  150. 150 ACViking said at 5:51 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    The Vet was a homefield advantage.

    Laurie is suffering the Curse now for how little respect he showed the Vet when the last game came and went.

    Yes, it’s taken awhile.

    But all great spirits grow with age.

  151. 151 ICDogg said at 7:20 PM on October 22nd, 2013:

    The Vet may have been a concrete toilet… but it was OUR concrete toilet.