Panthers Preview

Posted: November 10th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 124 Comments »

The Panthers come to Philly for a Monday night clash with the Eagles. Go by numbers and trends, and the eye test, and you will feel pretty good about the Eagles chances tonight. Then go back and check out Steelers-Jets highlights. The unknown is always the x-factor with the NFL. Who would have predicted that Jaiquawn Jarrett would have 2 INTs, a sack, a FR and 10 tackles in a game (heck, a whole season)? You just never know.

I covered the Panthers in my column.

This really is a game the Eagles should win. But as I pointed out in the column, sometimes desperate teams are the scariest teams. While the Panthers are struggling, the NFC South is so bad that they remain right in the hunt.

Some misc thoughts…

* Carolina is 3-1-1 against 4-3 teams. They are 0-4 against 3-4 teams. Could this be a coincidence? Sure. But it is definitely an interesting trend. Cam Newton is still a young QB. The 3-4 isn’t as static as the 4-3 and all the different looks it gives may affect his pre-snap reads and slow down his thinking. It could also affect his blockers, since they aren’t sure who is coming and who isn’t.

* I hate playing mobile QBs. Newton can still be an erratic pocket passer, so you benefit from that, but you just know there will be 3 or 4 Houdini moments tonight. You just hope those don’t turn into huge plays or TDs.

* Casey Matthews and Emmanuel Acho should have an easier time replacing DeMeco Ryans than they did Mychal Kendricks. Ryans best weapon is his brain. Matthews and Acho could be pretty bright guys who can at least hope to see the same things he did. Kendricks is a great athlete. Neither guy has anything close to his athletic ability.

* I think Matt Tobin will be okay at RG. He has been getting better each week. He has spent most of his time on the left side and that is a concern, but his confidence should be at an all-time high.

* Mark Sanchez didn’t play last year, but the Jets did face the Panthers. He has studied their defensive scheme before so that could help a bit.

* The Panthers live and die on turnovers. They have 3,3 and 4 takeaways in their 3 victories this year. If the Eagles can just hold onto the football…


124 Comments on “Panthers Preview”

  1. 1 Yuri said at 10:35 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Can someone opine on how different the Panthers defensive scheme is to what McDermott ran with the Eagles?

  2. 2 wee2424 said at 10:42 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Im not sure of the difference, but i do know they are alike due to both sucking.

  3. 3 mtn_green said at 12:11 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Yet really good last year.

  4. 4 wee2424 said at 5:45 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Which would be the difference then i guess lol.

  5. 5 BobSmith77 said at 10:52 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Other big issue with the Eagles’ defense besides the notable lapses in pass coverage is the % of drives they allow a score & the lack of turnovers they force.

    No one in the secondary has an INT yet besides Jenkins who hasn’t had one since Week 3. Getting Kendricks back helps but there just aren’t playmakers in this defense. Kendricks/Boykins and that is about it.

  6. 6 EagleNebula said at 11:13 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    according to this website:

    the eagles are allowing the 6th least points per drive…

  7. 7 D3FB said at 11:14 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Don’t let stats get in the way of a good narrative.

  8. 8 Michael Winter Cho said at 6:46 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    And 8th ranked defense according to Footballoutsiders.

  9. 9 Mitchell said at 12:49 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    We have 20 straight games with a turnover.

  10. 10 A Roy said at 2:14 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    What’s the record? Maybe it’s something to shoot for…

  11. 11 MaggieMagpie said at 2:50 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    INTs make the highlight of the night. Preventing a successful play 20 times a game goes unnoticed it seems.

  12. 12 GEAGLE said at 5:38 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Still don’t realize that we are actually on our way to a solid defense? I saw this coming two years ago, what more do people need to see until they get it? We boast the 4th ranked run defense, and have been getting pressures on QBs that everyone said would be a weakness for us……. And alleged “fans” are still crapping on the defense?

    Brandon Graham causing sack fumbles almost every other game..Trent Cole, hitting QBs consistly, Barwin having a pro bowl year.. Kendrick came back to already have a 12 tackle, sack, PBU game…we our getting high quality play from our baby NTs…and cox and Cedrick have been balling…. We are like a safety and a corner back away from being a viscious defense, and alleged eagles “fans” still think our defense is weak?
    We are currently the longest active streak of defense forcing ATleast 1 turnover per game..BUT WE DONT HAVE ANY PLYMAKERS RIGHT?

    How do you expect to ever get playmakers, if you don’t give young players the time to grow into playmakers?

  13. 13 bsuperfi said at 10:54 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Tommy, you seem pretty confident that it’s easier for Matthews/Acho to replace Ryans than Kendricks. I’m not so sure about this. Clearly Matthews/Acho can’t replace Kendricks’ athleticism, but why will they have a better chance at understanding the what they see, communicating, and generally leading?

    Some of these skills are developed, and some are natural. Ryans seems like he’s top of the heap in these categories, likely among the best in the NFL at the LB spot. We won’t be able to directly see the effects of missing Ryans on the tv, so it’ll be less obvious when the replacements are a big drop off. But I’d think there would be an aggregate effect across the performance of the entire defense.

    All I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be so confident in the comparison about who’s easier to replace.

  14. 14 D3FB said at 11:08 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Acho and Casey both are smart instinctive players who are limited athletically. Both players were considered to be guys who would have to get by with their minds rather than freakish athletic ability. Both guys have been in the scheme for a year and a half. While they won’t be the level of Demeco who is a veteran and one of the best in the business at diagnosing plays, they shouldn’t be overwhelmed. Replacing Meco’s strengths falls more in line with what both players do well as opposed to replacing Kendricks, where their flaws become more evident.

    Predraft profiles on both:
    Strengths Matthews possesses very impressive instincts.
    Diagnoses and finds the football quickly. Not fooled by misdirection or
    play fakes. Works tirelessly to shed blockers and isn’t afraid of
    contact. Excels at shifting through the trash in the box and has good
    range. Sound tackler. Displays good awareness in coverage.
    Intelligent blitzer. Outstanding work ethic.


    Strengths Acho is an instinctual inside linebacker who usually
    takes a good first step toward the ball off the snap. He is good to meet running backs inside and fill a gap, if not two, to make a play and get the ball carrier to the ground. Acho is proficient sifting through blockers outside, and is a better tackler from the inside-out in pursuit than he is meeting at the point. He understands how to time blitzes and work against offensive linemen to get pressure on the quarterback.

  15. 15 ACViking said at 11:14 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    D3FB . . .

    I defer to your judgment on these sorts of questions.

    I remain curious, however, how much of a difference you expect in terms of production.

    You mention relative lack of experience of Matthews and Acho in diagnosing plays compared to DeMeco.

    In close quarters, how much of an impact does that tenth of second more (or whatever it may be) that a Matthews or Acho may need *mentally* have on what they do *physically*?

  16. 16 D3FB said at 11:22 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    It may allow a lineman to get in slightly better position, but really the dropoff I would expect to see is what happens when they do come into contact with the linemen. It’s the little things a veteran has learned, that make the difference between being able to stack and shed versus being glued to a blocker. These minute differences can make all the difference in the world. (More than “leadership” getting these kinds of little details that are an addendum to the technique taught by coaches are the true value of veteran players).

    Getting there a split second later will likely exacerbate these problems. Likely it will mean a half dozen of 2 or 3 yard runs turn into 5,6,7 yard runs. It will have an impact, but not a backbreaking one, hopefully.

  17. 17 ACViking said at 11:28 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Relentlessly sharp stuff.


  18. 18 mtn_green said at 12:10 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Acho and Matthews have trouble getting off blocks. 2-gapping dlinemen help with that though. Eagles have a bunch if good ones.

  19. 19 EaglesTrolltheWorld said at 12:45 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I also saw lots of audibles by ‘Meco so far. If Casey or Emmanuel can’t do that well, I think we’ll notice it.

  20. 20 MaggieMagpie said at 2:47 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I can’t help but think that Malcolm Jenkins may offer some assistance. He plays behind the LBs, sees what they see, calls plays for the DBs and is already acknowledged as a smart, intelligent leader.

  21. 21 ACViking said at 3:06 PM on November 10th, 2014:


    D3FB gave a lengthy comment a few days ago.

    And he explained that even if Jenkins cheats up, circumstances limit his assistance for the new kids inside.

    Here’s the Post in which you’ll find it (I reposted it early in the comment thread).

    Really incisive and accessible “inside football* analysis.

  22. 22 D3FB said at 4:40 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Malcolm can’t call out checks for the whole D. The DL would never hear him.

  23. 23 MaggieMagpie said at 7:49 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I wasn’t thinking of the D Line. Just offering his take, if necessary, to the LBs on occasion, especially in pass protection.

  24. 24 A Roy said at 1:47 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Mathews has limited athletic ability? Didn’t you see his spider chart?

  25. 25 BobSmith77 said at 10:59 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Can the Panthers D force turnovers and hold the Eagles to 20-21 pts? If they can, I think they can win this game. If the Eagles score even just 24 pts, they’ll win this game and they put up 28+ pts they’ll cover the spread easily.

  26. 26 Mitchell said at 11:44 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    I will say this, I have never seen an NFL team have so many turnovers and still win so many games. Go Eagles.

  27. 27 Flyineagle45 said at 11:02 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    I hope to god we play a complete game. Is anyone else sick of overrated Arizona getting talked about. We would have crushed them had it not been for dumb Nate Allen and Trick Foles.

  28. 28 Bert's Bells said at 12:23 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    It’s always hilarious when someone changes a couple letters in a name to be insulting.

    It makes like I’m in the second grade.


  29. 29 Flyineagle45 said at 12:27 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    You’re really hurting my feelings Bert 🙁 take it easy its me ernie

  30. 30 BC1968 said at 12:52 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Well then only you two can answer this question, are those wicked rumors true?

  31. 31 Flyineagle45 said at 12:55 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Yes they are and he’s a verbally abusive asshole who constantly makes me the little spoon 🙁

  32. 32 Michael Winter Cho said at 11:46 AM on November 11th, 2014:

    Don’t go there, Lyineagle45!

  33. 33 ACViking said at 12:48 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Indy would have beaten the Eagles if not for Luck’s 4th Q INT in the RZ when TY Hilton tangled w/ Boykin. (ARGUMENT)

    Washington could have won beaten the Eagles if its PK doesn’t miss a chip-shot FG (by NFL standards) and Cousins completes 1 10-yard pass on their last possession to set up another NFL chip-shot FG. (ARGUMENT)

    Or you could argue the Eagles should have easily beaten both teams if the O-line wasn’t hurt and Foles played a tad better.

    The bottom line is: No one revisits HOW a SB winner may have clawed by in the regular season . . . or a SB winner’s avg margin of victory when all’s said and done (except, maybe, the ’85 Bears – at an incredible 17 ppg).

    The Cards have been winning — with a back up QB and a defense missing maybe its 3 best players and a 4th for part of the 1st half of the season.

    Good for them. For the media, the Cards’ success in the face of “adversity” makes a good story.

    But the season that counts starts after Week 17.

    Let’s see if the Cards make the playoffs first. Then win the SB.

    In the meantime, remember that — about this time last year — the Eagles became the talk of the NFL.

    And where did that get the Birds?

  34. 34 A Roy said at 1:44 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Concur that we’re a couple plays away from being 4-4, but we’re also a couple plays away from being 8-0.

    Concur that no one cares how you got there. Case in point: NYFGiants

    The list of 8-1 teams that DIDN”T make the playoffs is probably rather short. Cards will be in the playoffs.

    Dunno where I’m headed with this, but I seem to be following along with your comments..

  35. 35 D3FB said at 4:50 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    If the Cardinals didn’t make the playoffs, would it be the biggest collapse in league history?

  36. 36 Buge Halls said at 3:49 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    And it’s a shame that it was the receivers that dropped at least two TD throws that hit them right in the hands. Yeah, all Foles fault!

  37. 37 BobSmith77 said at 11:08 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Please don’t get Sanchez throw the ball more than 35 times tonight. Don’t want to see one of those outings where Sanchez throws around ~45 times.

  38. 38 ACViking said at 11:29 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    If you’re Carolina, don’t you game-plan to take away the Eagles’ run game . . . like every other team (but the Giants) have done.

    Kelly’s shown he’ll throw all day long if the opposition invites him to do so.

    That could happen tonight. So be prepared.

  39. 39 EagleNebula said at 2:12 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    But with the left side of the line returned, perhaps game-planing to take away the run will not make a difference for Carolina. Also, with Kelce knocking that rust off, I think the screen game will continue to open up (as highlighted by Chip Wagon) forcing Carolina to soften their dedication to stopping the run.

  40. 40 ACViking said at 2:29 PM on November 10th, 2014:


    If you’re Kelly, you certainly expect that having 4/5th of your starting O-line in place should make a difference.

    But if the running game starts out slowly, and Kelly goes to the air . . .

    Then my view of Andy Reid will be changed forever.

  41. 41 Mitchell said at 11:45 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    We are Eagles fans, there is ALWAYS complaints about the QB lol.

  42. 42 MaggieMagpie said at 2:42 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    NO quarterback should be making more than 35 pass attempts per game. Unless every RB has broken legs.

  43. 43 BC1968 said at 11:13 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    The Eagles play on Monday and when they get the ball: Day do run run run, day do run run.

    Sing it, it’s really catchy. Screw you guys, I’m going home.

  44. 44 P_P_K said at 4:26 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    “I met him on a Monday and my heart went boom…”

  45. 45 BobSmith77 said at 11:19 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Call this a ‘must-win’ too given the Eagles remaining schedule (see them splitting the 4 games @ GB, SEA, 2 vs DAL) and decent odds it is going to take at least 10-6 to make the playoffs this year in the NFC.

  46. 46 BC1968 said at 11:30 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Tonight is so important, Dallas is staying at 7-3 until they go to the Giants in 2 weeks. Caronlina’s defense is turrible against the run so our offense should be able to pile up yards and points. I hate to see their QB back there scrambling, that’s been our kind of QB for so many years and it sucks playing against.

  47. 47 ACViking said at 11:25 AM on November 10th, 2014:

    Re: Improved Running Game — Improved Celek — Return of LJ

    Brent Celek’s improved blocking also coincides with the return of Lane Johnson.

    Likewise, before Johnson’s arrival in Philadelphia last season, Celek was a middling blocker at best.

    When LJ was out on suspension this year, Celek was not the same blocker he was last season.

    But check every All-22 review since LJ’s return, and you’ll see a sea of compliments about how Celek’s once again blocking well.

    Why is that happening, I leave to T-Law and D3FB.

  48. 48 ian_no_2 said at 12:02 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Andrew Johnson – became president when Lincoln was shot.
    Lyndon B. Johnson – ” ” ” JFK ” ”
    Connor Barwin – became TE when Celek graduated..

  49. 49 ACViking said at 12:55 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Tyler became president after Tippecanoe died of pneumonia.

    TRJr became president after McKinley was shot.

    Former Pitt Panther Al Chesley became the Eagles ILB (w/ Lemaster) after Bergey had an ACL in New Orleans.

    Dion Lewis succeeded LeSean McCoy as Pitt’s RB.

    Where we going here?

  50. 50 A Roy said at 1:37 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Probably something to do with his Johnson…

  51. 51 ian_no_2 said at 2:02 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Pneumonia? The RAILROADS were supplanting the roads from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati when Harrison, who brought small tract settlers to Ohio, died, hence Barwin succeeding an EAGLE at CINCINNATI and Lewis succeeding an EAGLE at Pitt. Who told Celek not to block at CINCINNATI?

  52. 52 ian_no_2 said at 2:23 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Don’t forgot too that the ANTI-MASONIC party allied with Harrison in 1840. If the Whigs on the board are offended I’m sorry unless they’re Giants fans.

  53. 53 ACViking said at 2:27 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    IN2 —

    These are great!

  54. 54 MaggieMagpie said at 2:40 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Were there roads from Pittsburgh to Cincinnatti before the railroads?

  55. 55 ian_no_2 said at 2:51 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    the main horse carriage route was the same as route 70, which connected to Cinci from Dayton. A special weapon was used when surrounded by Bengal tigers.

  56. 56 ACViking said at 2:54 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    These is DNM.

    (do not miss)

    Just as D3FB has set the bar on *inside football* commentary, I-N-2 is setting the bar on American history here.

  57. 57 A_T_G said at 4:24 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    So roads took Eagles to points west, but Rhodes brought Dawkins to Philly from points south.

  58. 58 MaggieMagpie said at 7:47 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Just wondered. An ancestor of mine rode horseback from Philadelphia to southern Ontario to marry a good Mennonite boy when she was just 17, before there was anything but a wagon track. And a few armstrong ferries to cross rivers.

  59. 59 MaggieMagpie said at 2:38 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    An answer to your question really starts at 2:00.

  60. 60 GEAGLE said at 5:13 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    “Tippecanoe and Tyler too”… Wasn’t that the slogan they ran with? Not sure why I know this lol

  61. 61 ACViking said at 5:23 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Si sono corretti

  62. 62 mtn_green said at 12:06 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Is Carolina a 4-3 with a lot of zone? Eagles do pretty well against zone in last two years.

    If cam and the Oline have trouble with 3-4 eagles run a pretty sneaky, unpredictable 3-4.

  63. 63 mksp said at 12:39 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I’m expecting a blow out. Something like 45-10.

    Carolina is a bad team. The Eagles are a good team with a great coach. Turnovers and inches are the only reason this team isn’t a dominant 8-0, and I expect Chip to clean up the former and get luckier with the latter.

    The Eagles under Chip haven’t lost many games they definitively *should have* won, though the one that they did lose (New Orleans in the playoffs) hurt. I’m not counting Dal/NYG last year because Nick was drunk / injured.

    Plus Mark Sanchez will throw for 300 and 4 TDs, just to confuse everyone.

  64. 64 Mitchell said at 1:31 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I expect a blow out every time I eat Taco Bell….

  65. 65 D3FB said at 4:47 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Well then you my friend need….

  66. 66 A Roy said at 1:35 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    So, I’m wondering… if Michael Vick had been amenable to being a backup here, we never would’ve signed Sanchez, and Vick would be replacing Foles right about now. Would the readers here have more or less confidence in the outcome of the game/season? I suspect significantly less.

  67. 67 oreofestar said at 1:38 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    The difference is I trust Sanchez to say healthy until Nick comes back, Mike would be done in a couple weeks and we would have like 4 games of Barkley

  68. 68 Bert's Bells said at 1:47 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    At this point in their careers I think Sanchez is clearly better fit in Philly.

    He’ll have some head scratching moments -like Foles had, but I’d expect Vick to go completely off the reservation for long stretches.

    Of course, I’ve never been a Vick fan, so I’m a little biased.

  69. 69 Alistair Middlemiss said at 1:49 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Depends on the situation. If we were playing the Packers in the championship game to go to the superbowl i want Vick all day – on his day he can win any game. For half a season + playoffs? i would be scared every snap.

    Probably would prefer Vick all things considered because he can win a game – while i think Sanchez at best wont lose games.

  70. 70 botto said at 1:58 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    significantly less. and even less then that maybe

  71. 71 mtn_green said at 2:59 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Vick can be schemed against. If team doesn’t know Vick is starting, or his kryptonite.

    Oddly enough 2014 Foles looked similar to 2013 Vick, any thoughts why?

  72. 72 ACViking said at 2:24 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Re: SB Teams and Turnovers

    The 6-2 Eagles have 21 turnovers after 8 games — which projects to 42 for the regular season (for the sake of discussion).

    So how have SB teams done protecting the football?


    In the first part of the post-merger era — which started with the 1970 SB — here are the facts that caught my eye:.

    1. In the first 16 SBs (excluding strike years of ’82 and ’87): SB teams averaged 33 turnovers on a 16-game basis.

    2. The SB winner had *more* TOs during the regular season than the losing SB team in 13 of those first 16 seasons (not including the 9-game ’82 season).

    3. Several of those early SB winners had 40+ TOs based on a 16-game regular season — ’70 Colts w/ 41; ’71 Cowboys w/ 40; ’74 Steelers w/ 46; ’79 Steelers w/ 52; ’80 Raiders w/ 44; ’83 Raiders w/ 49.

    4. The ’75 Cowboys, which lost to Pittsburgh, had 40 TOs; and the ’85 Pats, which lost to the Bears, reached the SB w/ 42 TOs.

    In the 11 years from 1988 to 1998, TOs for SB teams dropped substantially — down to 26 on avg. Also . . .

    1. The SB winning team had *fewer* TOs than the losing team in 10 of those 11 years — flipping the trend of the prior 16 years.

    2. The SB-winning NYG of 1990 had a TOTAL of just 14 TOs for the season — the fewest ever by a SB team. (The losing ’90 Bills had only 21.)

    3. The no-huddle Buffalo Bills of ’91-’93 averaged 36 TOs per year — with a high of 38 in ’92. [Only two other teams had more than 30 TOs, and both lost: ’89 Broncos w/ 32; ’94 Chargers w/ 34.]

    In past 15 seasons, since the Broncos won back-to-back SBs in ’97-’98, SB teams have continued to average just 26 TOs during the season.

    1. The winning team had *more* TOs than the losing team in 10 of those seasons.

    2. Only 2 of the last 15 SB winning teams had more than 28 TOs: ’99 Rams w/ 31; ’07 Giants w/ 34.

    3. 9 of the last 15 winning SB teams had 24 TOs or less.

    4. In the last 4 SBs, the 8 teams averaged only 20 TOs.

    5. The most TOs by a SB-losing team was the ’01 Rams w/ 44.

    6. Only 5 of the last 30 SB teams had 31+ TOs

    So what does all this data suggest?

    The only take-away I have is this.

    The Bills of ’91-’93 — operating the fastest offense in NFL history until now — reached the SB in 1991, 1992, and 1993 while committing 35, 38, and 35 TOs.

    And over the past 26 seasons — covering 52 SB teams — the average TOs per team has remained steady at 26.

    Yet the Bills, with 50% more TOs than the typical SB team of their own era and the past 15 years, still reached the SB 3-straight times w/ those numbers.

    The 2014 Eagles, with 21 TOs in 8 games, are 6-2 while running the fastest offense since the Bills of the early ’90s.

    That Bills team seems like a reasonable comparator. Probably, the only comparator.

    And while it’s a different era, to be sure. Those 26 TOs per SB team on average hasn’t changed for a long time.

    Are fewer TOs better? Sure.

    But would remaining near the bottom of the TO column — by itself — dictate the Eagles will NOT make the SB?

    No. It won’t.

    (A comment by MITCHELL prompted this post.)

  73. 73 MaggieMagpie said at 2:31 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Most excellent read, as usual.;~)

  74. 74 mtn_green said at 2:50 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Eagles will not win if turning ball over at same rate in playoffs, there is no way the skill level is too similar. Eagles defense doesn’t really generate turnovers either.

    Sanchez is not the answer if turnovers is the problem.

  75. 75 ACViking said at 2:52 PM on November 10th, 2014:


    Can’t say I disagree. At least not without checking some long-term data.

    Generally, turnovers against good teams (read: playoff teams)? BAD.

    But one thing about Kelly’s offense — like the Bills of the early ’90s — no good comparator exists. And the data pre-2013 may not be useful in forming projections.

    Like I said, though, at this point I don’t disagree at all.

  76. 76 mtn_green said at 4:06 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Not sure the k-gun and chip Kelly’s offense breaks the mold. Eagles are a good team and one less turnover per game they would add almost seven points to tier point differential per game.

    If the eagles continue their turnover rate they won’t be 7-2 in second half and be bounced from playoffs quickly. There really isn’t a compensation for turning over ball around 3 times per game, unless defense gets takeaways.

    Speed or no speed.

    I think wins are a result of being better than the other team and factors such as luck, some amazing st, and some amazing game winning defensive stops at end of game. Those factors will not be present at the rate they were in first 8 games there will be a regression. Luckily turnovers can also regress to the nfl mean.

  77. 77 ACViking said at 4:11 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Fair and persuasive argument.

    As I understand you, the early season schedule may have skewed the Birds’ actual productivity.

    Can’t argue against that.

  78. 78 anon said at 5:45 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    But the Bils lost all of those games… who goes 3 times and loses?! I’m hoping (but not sure you can get data to show this) that the turnovers during the playoffs are what matters. Be interesting to see if SB teams have a substantial drop off in TOs during the playoffs.

  79. 79 NinjaP said at 3:29 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    When was the last time a teams starting QB went down and next week over 95% of writers were choosing that teams to win?

  80. 80 xeynon said at 3:40 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    What concerns me is the possibility that Sanchez turns out to be just as mistake prone as Foles, but with fewer big plays to compensate. The Panthers aren’t a great team but they do have the personnel to cause problems.

  81. 81 ACViking said at 4:04 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    X wrote:

    ” What concerns me is . . . Sanchez turns out to be just as mistake prone as Foles[.]”

    Sanchez’s 4-season track record is that he’s more mistake prone than Foles.

    Maybe we should operate on the assumption that Sanchez’s decision-making — over enough games — will revert to his historical mean.

    (That’s the opinion of Greg Cosell, for those who put any stock in what he says.)

  82. 82 Buge Halls said at 3:45 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    “If the Eagles can just hold onto the football…” Please beat this into Sanchez’s head. His INT to TD ration is all but even. So his history tells us to expect one INT for every TD he throws. Could get ugly!

  83. 83 ACViking said at 3:58 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Re: Kelly’s Play Calls – Time for Tea with the QB

    Birds 24/7 has a piece up about how Kelly’s using every last second to coach up the QBs — a byproduct of one-word play-calls that leave, apparently, quite a bit of time for real-time whispering.

    I assume at Oregon, Mariota hears from HC Mark Helfrich the same way. (If not, then WHY NOT?!).

    Now, think about a WCO play call. Like these:

    1. Far Double Wing Right, A-C Strong, 322 Scat, Y Stick;

    2. West Left U, Center Motion Pass, 317 Power, X Slant; or

    3. Brown Right F Short 2 Jet Flanker Drive, check swing, check V.

    (No. 3 is is considered a *SIMPLE* play call that — if I understand it correctly — has the FB behind the QB and HB to the FB’s right, TE on the right, the flanker motions back inside toward the TE before the snap, “2 Jet” is the protection, the split end runs an out, and the back runs a swing pass.)

    The coach calling these WCO plays I think has to, first, know the down and distance. Then make sure the personnel is right. Then decide on the call based on the defense’s tendency. THEN get the call into the QB.

    Then the QB has to the the offense aligned correctly.

    Watching games, it seems all that takes at least 15 seconds — so there’s no time for the coach communicating with the QB to do anything more than just call the play.

    If Marioto gets the benefit of Helfrich’s last-second whispers, I wonder how he’ll do in the NFL — at least early on — if he lands with a team that uses WCO terminology.

    And too bad Reid never simplified the play calls . . . . I think McNabb — like most QBs — could use a whisper or two.

  84. 84 mtn_green said at 4:13 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I think Kelly was being humble and he probably gives a short synopsis of the defense to QB.
    “Burn backup db”
    “99 is on a knee”
    “Safety will bite on crosser throw over head”
    “Dont take sack or out of FG range”
    “Faster, faster”
    “These chicken fingers are good”

  85. 85 ACViking said at 4:18 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Kelly’s the new-age Tom Landry — whose belief in his system caused Staubach to say at his retirement press conference that the system is bigger than the QB. (Words to that effect)

    If Kelly could manually control the QB after the snap, he would.

  86. 86 Crus57 said at 4:28 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    For that reason, I wonder if Kelly plays Madden..

  87. 87 ACViking said at 4:28 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    That’s genius!

  88. 88 D3FB said at 4:43 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    If Barkley plays, I think reporters may be asking why he has a wire running from his helmet to his brain stem…

  89. 89 GermanEagle said at 4:40 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I am at the game tonight. Holla back! Go Eagles!
    By the way I love being in Philly on gamedays. So many people on the streets show their Eagles colors!!!

  90. 90 ACViking said at 5:21 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    are the cheese steaks any better on game day?

  91. 91 GermanEagle said at 5:36 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    They’re always great. 360 days a year.

  92. 92 EagleNebula said at 6:02 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    What about the 5 days 5 hours 48 minutes and 46 seconds?

  93. 93 GermanEagle said at 6:05 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    That’s when I’m on a diet.

  94. 94 GEAGLE said at 5:27 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Stay away from 10th n Oregon tonight, it’s been blocked off all day, because “cookies bar” has the street blocked off for a big tribute to the marine block party…. Don’t ride down Oregon before the game, take Shunk street or Bigler tonight if you have to maneuver thru that end of south philly…

    Best bet is still taking to the subway to the Linc with all the fans

  95. 95 GermanEagle said at 5:36 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Thanks buddy. Me and my girl will be taking the subway. Car is parked in the hotel garage. 😉

  96. 96 anon said at 5:37 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    get drunk!

  97. 97 GermanEagle said at 6:07 PM on November 10th, 2014:


  98. 98 GEAGLE said at 5:49 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Smart man… The Eagles tailgate starts in the subway anyway… Enjoy brother.

  99. 99 GermanEagle said at 6:06 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Will do. Let’s hope my winning streak at the Linc continues, making it 5-5.

  100. 100 GEAGLE said at 5:23 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    “When a warrior goes down, it’s up to the next man to pick up the sheild and honor him with your play”-Chip Kelly

    first Eagles game since 2011 without the great “washed up LOL” Demeco “Mufasa” Ryan manning the middle…really pains me to not see him on the field tonight, only had him for 3 years but he is up there with Trotter for my all time favorites Eagles LBs…
    Tonight you will see a nasty swarming defense that will Honor Meco with their play. Mykal Kendrick will unleash everything he has gained from Meco these past 3 years, fly around and have a big game…expecting Marcus Smith to play 6-12 snaps, even if ouf reporters disagree..

    I expect guys like Huff, Jordan, Beau to take that next step and turn it up for the second half of the season..Jordan was talking bout he has grown so much that he can’t stand to watch tape from his first 8 games..

    Nate Allen is healthy, we will learn a lot about what the coaches thought of Wolffs play last week by the safety snap count. Will Nate take every snap? Or were they pleased enough with Wolff to rotate him in this week? hoping he has earned some snaps so he has an opportunity to build off last week

  101. 101 anon said at 5:36 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Are Casey and Acho both liabilities in coverage? Would like to see MSII come in and take away some of those passes that get just over Mecos head. Can’t believe he tore his achilles on a pic

  102. 102 GEAGLE said at 5:47 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    They have made some decent plays in coverage, but if it were up to our coaches we would probably sub them out every single time opponents are passing the ball…
    We will certainly try to get them off thee field in passing situations.i have no evidence to back this up, but I expect marcus to play 6-12 snaps in Nickel. I would be really shocked to see Acho or Casey next to Mykal in Nickel, it will either be Mykal/Marcus, or us playing Dime with Nolan/Mykal instead of Nickel… But whether marcus plays or not tonight, I’d bet on him ATleast growing into the nickel Linebacker role this last half of the season…just not sure if that will start tonight, next week or the following week
    But I expect more Dime, with Kendrick and Nolan Carrol in obvious passing downs Tonight, then Marcus, and then Acho/Casey

    I’d be pretty surprised to see Acho or Casey in the game in obvious passing situations…that would really surprise me
    Thinking we will start to see marcus play better and more now that we are in the second half of the season, but until we really trust him, I expect to see our Dime package out there when the other team has to pass…

    The key is for Acho and Casey to hold the fort down on 1st and 2nd down when teams try to pass on them..

  103. 103 Sean Stott said at 6:52 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    They’re not the liability in coverage that Demeco can be, to be frank.

  104. 104 BC1968 said at 6:02 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    We truly have lost him.

  105. 105 ACViking said at 6:39 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Re: D3FB asked if the 8-1 Cards Miss Playoffs . . . Biggest Collapse?

    Answer: YES.

    32 NFL teams have started 8-1.

    Every one of those 32 NFL teams have qualified for the playoffs.

    Had the Cards, after starting 7-1, lost to the Rams on Sunday, then missing the playoffs would not have been unprecedented.

    In 2012, Lovie Smith’s Bears started 7-1 but went 3-5 down the stretch and missed the playoffs — costing Smith his job. (Bad firing, IMHO.)

    And in 1996, Washington — under HC Norv Turner and QB Gus Frerrotte — also started 7-1 but finished 2-6. And missed the playoffs.

    [NOTE: Kotite’s ’94 Eagles started 7-2 — though not 7-1 — and missed the playoffs with 7-straight season-ending losses. Most useful 7-game losing streak in Eagles’ history.]

    That said . . . Anything can happen on any given Sunday — and usually does.

  106. 106 bill said at 7:37 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    “Most useful 7-game losing streak in Eagles’ history.”

    Amen. Probably top 3 in all sports history, for that matter.

  107. 107 SteveH said at 7:05 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Completely off topic, but did anyone else realize the Raiders are 0-9?

    The 2008 Lions are probably getting nervous, their record is in jeopardy. Don’t pop the corks on that champagne yet guys!

  108. 108 mtn_green said at 7:10 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Anyone know if ms2 is active, or know a list of inactives?

  109. 109 EagleNebula said at 7:13 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    He is active- Wolff isn’t

  110. 110 anon said at 7:14 PM on November 10th, 2014:


  111. 111 EagleNebula said at 7:15 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Whole list: @EaglesInsider: Eagles inactives: QB Foles, S Wolff, S Watkins, OL Vandervelde, OL Kelly, WR Maehl, DE Hart. Tobin starts at RG

  112. 112 anon said at 7:18 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I really don’t understand how we have a 5th round pick in Hart who is not playing when we have UDFA’s seeing the field. Howie stays wasting draft picks! #sarcasm

  113. 113 EagleNebula said at 7:22 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    The mark of an excellent organization is their rigid adherence to draft status when determining playing time #sarcasm.

  114. 114 anon said at 7:15 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Anyone see Ced Thorton’s twitter? Almost shed a tear.

  115. 115 anon said at 7:19 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    It’s Ertz’s birthday — Sanchez don’t let him down.

  116. 116 ACViking said at 7:33 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Why is Wolff inactive?

    Anyone? Anyone?

  117. 117 MaggieMagpie said at 7:41 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I don’t suppose this helps.

  118. 118 ACViking said at 7:34 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Maehl played last week.

    Who’s taking his spot this week (regardless of position)?

  119. 119 ACViking said at 7:34 PM on November 10th, 2014:


  120. 120 GENETiC-FREAK said at 7:45 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Brad Smith taking Maehl spot

  121. 121 GEAGLE said at 7:48 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    WE are about to be treated to a rabid defensive performance. This game is for Meco “Mufasa” Ryan..
    “Cap” Ryan had a big hand in helping to grow many of our defensive puppies. We will see a defense play inspired football to honor their mentor..I expect Kendrick to have a BIGTIME “coming of age” performance, and guys like Ced, Cox, Bennie, Vinny. BG are going to bring the ruckus tonight! Watching these young defenders grow these past two years has been great, now it’s time to start reaping rewards of all that defensive growth and turn it up a notch for the home stretch.

  122. 122 anon said at 7:59 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    Who scores first Shady, Polk or Sproles?

  123. 123 BC1968 said at 8:04 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    I want to see a play at the one, two or three yard line where they give it to Polk and he runs over people for a TD.

  124. 124 BC1968 said at 8:31 PM on November 10th, 2014:

    He said Michael VIck and the Carolina Panthers offense. Not sure how I feel about that.